Zack Greinke is off the books. Ill-fated Cuban signee Yasmany Tomas will be off the books after next season. The Diamondbacks avoided doubling-down with pricey extensions for former core performers Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, and A.J. Pollock. Arizona GM Mike Hazen sloughed the necessary financial weight to put the Dbacks in the unfamiliar position of having some money to spend, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Per Roster Resource, their 2020 payroll sits at about $109MM, only about $14MM shy of their 2019 opening day figure, but they have significant financial freedom beyond next season, when the only remaining salary obligations belong to underpaid cornerstones Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar. Keep an eye out for MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook Series for a further investigation into the Diamondbacks options moving forward. For now, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…
- The Cubs have a less flexible financial situation at present, and how they maneuver this offseason remains one of the most intriguing questions of the winter. They’re the best team in the NL Central as presently constituted, per Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards, though it surely doesn’t feel like it to Cubs fans after their September collapse. Rumors of significant change continue to swirl, but it’s hard to argue how moving one of their stars like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez will improve the team in the short-term, and it’s hard to justify willfully closing the window on the team that won the 2016 championship. And yet, last season’s decline was so thorough the Cubs have to wonder if a managerial change alone is enough to shock The Cubs Way back to life. Moving Kyle Schwarber also isn’t the answer, per NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki, who makes the case that Schwarber, 27 in March, is entering his prime after finally showing signs of reaching his considerable offensive ceiling in the second half last year. Recent rumblings peg Willson Contreras as the potential moving piece, but trading a potent firecracker like Contreras is a risk. Theo Epstein’s accolades as a cursebreaker are unparalleled, but turning this club back into a true-blue contender might be his biggest career challenge to date.
- The Mariners should act now to open their competitive window in 2021 by making a run at Gerrit Cole, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. It makes sense on paper, as Cole makes any rotation look a whole heck of a lot better, though it’s certainly hard to imagine. If the Mariners really do want to contend with the Astros and A’s as early as 2021, a rotation led by Cole, Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi looks a lot better than a rotation fronted by Gonzalez and Kikuchi alone. The Mariners do have money to spend as well, with just $44MM on the books for 2021, and if Cole is the best free agent pitcher available over, say, the next three offseasons, then it would make sense to make a run at him now. That said, all signs point to a more modest approach from Seattle this winter.
Contreras is a potent firecracker? Huh?
That just means he’s a passionate player, and probably the emotional leader of that team.
Unless Its significant package of 3 or more players. A deal wont be made
He is emotionally unstable to say the least. Often he can be seen beating his chest with a “look at me” NFL mentality. Also prone to outbursts of screaming, crying, and attacking things in the clubhouse with baseball bats. I love his passion and skill set, but Maddon let things get way out of hand with him.
What is a “skill set”? Is that the same as “skills”?
Skill set is a very common term in all sports. The term is used generally to describe a player’s overall ability in terms of defense, athleticism, and offense. For instance, Willson Contreras’s “skill set” includes mobility behind the plate, a strong arm, quick to 2B, ability to hit for power and the opposite field, etc. Yes you can use the word “skills” interchangeably if you want, but you will hear most scouts and baseball aficionados use the term skill set quite a bit more.
Don’t make things up. I watch every single Cubs game and have never once seen him attack anything in the clubhouse. He’s also an amazing person off the field in the community.
Thank you, Ry
Yes, because Yadi Molina isn’t the same way.
Best or close to the best catcher in baseball. That’s all that matters
BULLSH*T
Unlike Molina Of cards throwing his bat into right field on walk off ??
Contreras is passionate and competitive… a lot of guys are.
You clearly have never watched the Cubs or Contreras play. You act like he was Carlos Zambrano.
The D-backs might be the best defensive team in baseball. It will be interesting to see what kind of an approach they take this offseason. The Cubs might be feeling pressure to make a move, just to make a move. Havent thought about it but I suppose the Mariners could be a dark horse for Cole.
They’re feeling pressure to change the roster because they’re no longer a championship contender as presently constituted.
*cubs
Best team in the nl central
Most over rated team in the NL Central more likely
Agreed.
Bruh, do you watch baseball? The cubs are borderline terrible. A pint of milk has a longer shelf life than the cubs right now.
Borderline terrible? Stop yourself
Sox fan trying to trash the Cubs? Color me shocked. You’d take ANYONE on the MLB team in a heart beat.
I love your posts
right…because the best team in the nl central in 18 lost a WC game and in 19 finished 3rd. but yeah they are the best. lol
we already had Quintana. but thanks
How does fangraphs rank the third best team in the central, the best team this year? Is it based on money spent?
Scumbag
Bruh, you troll Cubs fans on a message board. Every DAM post. You might be the biggest loser here.
Wow. You are REALLY stupid.
D-backs another season as also ran 500 team.
the d backs were very impressive this year with losing four excellent players, they sign a couple good pitchers they will be competitive
arizona could sneakingly become the royals during their run if they continue developing their pitching and add pieces in the right places. i have concerns over their offense though.those royals teams had moose and hosmer(plus sal perez and gordon) to bank on for offense and i dont know that arizona currently has guys like that even
Look at the seasons Eduardo Escobar and Ketel Marte just put up. Arguably better than any season Moose or Hosmer had with Royals.
no real argument there i just think that’s their ceiling and im not sure how repeatable those seasons are, escobar in particular
Escobar had a great 2018 as well. Marte we shall see on though.
Oakland has Olson, the greatest 1B defender of all time, and Chapman, the greatest 3B defender of all time. Not to mention Semien and even Grossman got a gold glove nomination. All of Oaklands pitchers had massive FIPs and much lower ERAs, proving that Oakland is by far the greatest defensive team in MLB. AZ? LOL
Why not say Oakland is the greatest fielding team “of all time”! Pffft!
oakland does have a very good defensive team but dont expect anybody to take u seriously by phrasing ur side of the debate like that, especially when it sounds like ur trying to say the 2019 A’s had the greatest defense ever
They could be if they add Kikuchi and trade for Betts.
“…turning this club back into a true-blue contender might be his biggest career challenge to date”
I understand the point, but personally believe Theo’s successful construction of World Series winning teams for both the Red Sox and Cubs is way more impressive.
Sure, but can he maintain a championship club? He even admits he’s made some mistakes recently, so the pressure’s on him to make better decisions moving forward.
eh, i guess the question is “is it harder to win the first championship or the second?” if it was any other teams i’d say the 2nd championship would probably be harder but considering the droughts that he ended in both places that first one was had/has to be more difficult
What I find irritating as a fan is that for the past year plus, the mantra was that purse strings were tight for 2019, but would loosen again in 2020. Now, it appears that will not be the case and anyone giving it any thought could have seen it would not be the case. The new TV network won’t start generating big revenue for a while and the money off the books does not compare with the money still on the books and the money that will need to go on the books in order to: (a) preserve part of the core Theo wants to preserve; and (b) fix the offense that Theo bemoaned as “broken” after the 2018 collapse, not to mention adding at least one needed piece to the starting rotation and repairing the bullpen. Swapping Maddon for Ross alone will not turn the Cubs into a stronger contender in ’20 than they were last year without some significant moves that would likely require more money than ownership is willing to spend, even though they are more than willing to spend money creating a tv network and acquiring real estate around the ballpark.
I don’t remember anyone saying they would necessarily loosen for 2020. It was more that they would be tightened to non-exhorbitant heights if the team was not an evidenced contender (evidenced meaning coming off a strong playoff run.)
The cubs aren’t spending any of that tv revenue on the roster. Ever.
Spinach: I do recall it. The typical comment was something like =wait until after this season (2019) with the money coming off the books and the new TV network. Or – the Cubs “print money” and the commonly held fan sentiment that every free agent desperately wants to play for the Cubs would lead to the Cubs opening up the purse, sky’s the limit. Epstein’s post-2018 comments ab0ut the broken offense crated some expectation that the broken offense would be addressed. Instead, he brought in Daniel Descalso. In some ways I don’t blame ownership for keeping Epstein on a tight leash money-wise given the Heyward, Morrow and Chatwood contracts, to name three, and given Theo’s record back in Boston with, most notably, the Carl Crawford fiasco.
anytime theo has had money to work with in chicago he’s spent it pretty bad. even if they want to open the checkbook further this year i’d be telling theo that money is tight to try to find as many bargains as possible. also, i dont understand how all last offseason they were saying “money is tight” and then all of a sudden have kimbrel money. that’s money that could’ve been 1)spread around to multiple arms better or 2)is likely coming out of whatever money theo had to spend this offseason. i think theo is a pretty great GM/president but he’s also got his fair share of head scratchers and those have more often than not turned out to be HUGE mistakes
The real problem isnt the purse strings.. The draft & development system has dried up, outside of Horner who has come up and provided anything? This was the biggest challenge after rebuild ended & they have failed at it. Certainly no pitchers have, I’d argue the fact Theo has utterly failed at drafting pitching & developing in 8 seasons with Cubs. Theo did great in trades for Arrieta & Hendricks, now that avenue has gone by way side.
that’s kind of what i mean. his first few years he did well at finding hidden gems but hasnt delivered on 1 of them in multiple years(chatwood,smyly,multiple bp arms,etc.)
Epstein has a fault that will bite you every time……he trades long term benefits for short term benefits:
* Candelario and Paredes for a bust RP
* One of the biggest studs in baseball, Gleymer Torrez for 23 innings of Aroldis Chapman
* The Whopper of Bad Moves….Jiminez and Cease for a journeyman Pitcher
Et al
Add to that spending a Quarter BILLION dollars for Heyward, Montero and Chatwood and you’ve got a gutted farm system, previously rated the best in baseball, and payroll inflexibility.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, he won a World Series, but at what cost? How many would the Cubs have won in the future had he stayed the course and retained the bevy of talent that he had expertly assembled? He danced and now he’s having to pay the band.
There may be a way out. Move Bryant for a package of prospects, but he’ll probably let Boras squeeze him for $300,000,000.
Why is the Cubs near future all about who they can trade because they can’t sign a big name player in free agency?
Know how good FO’s handle it?…..
They bring up guys from their farm system and make the players they have under contract better. That is something Mr. Epstein has not done particularly well in his career.
How come the Cubs have not had 3-4 guys come up from their farm system in the past few years that are ready to make an impact on the field? How come their elite, brilliant, legendary analytic staff can’t work with their elite, brilliant, legendary coaching staff to make the players under contract perform better?
The Nationals did just that in 2019. Stereotypes and narratives aside, they do have an analytic staff that did work with their coaching staff and their players were not primma donna’s that thought they knew better. So everyone worked with each other to make the team better. Davey Martinez was a terrible manager in 2018. How come he suddenly did a 180? Getting Harper off the team helped, but that was hardly the only thing.
Moneyball was dead 8-10 years ago. MLB has moved on to organizations maximizing their players production.
Bryant, Schwarber, Horner came up.
Huh?
I’m talking about today.
Who are they bringing up? Why do they need money for free agents? Who can they improve that’s on the roster today?
Pursuing Cole seems so unlikely. Cole would have to be willing to play for Seattle. Also the Mariners would have to hand out Cano money over less years, which seems even less likely.
He’d save a good $3 million a year in income tax compared to playing in California.
He’d pay 2.25% as a “high earner” in Seattle’s own income tax, plus some of the highest sales taxes in the country in Washington State, so the “savings” are speculative at best. In addition, he’d pay California tax for every game the Mariners play in Anaheim or Oakland, plus any interleague games in LA, SF, or SD.
When he signs for a guaranteed deal of 25M to $30M a year for 5-7 years, that is generational wealth. He won’t be pinching pennies over a few million not paid in income tax.
I’m guessing $30MM+. Maybe $35MM+. There’s talk he may surpass Greinke’s AAV.
He doesnt care about money, its about lifestyle for some, especially CA locals. Cole is going to either the Angels, Dodgers or Padres so please stop acting like any other team has a chance at him SMH
@Strike Four
Cole himself said “I never said that” to claims that he is intent on moving to SoCal. Of course teams outside SoCal are in play. Money will play a huge role.
Arizona needs to spend some money on extensions for Ahmed and Peralta this offseason. Neither will require deals that go into their late 30’s. Both are gold glove winners Ahmed is coming off his best career offensive season. Perhaps most importantly, they don’t have anyone in the minors ready to step into those 2 positions should they leave in free agency
Arizona not likely to spend much money they will let both plays walk.
I doubt Ahmed will sign an extension before becoming a free agent. He has been an outspoken advocate of players rights & a critic of how MLB has manipulated the current system to hold player’s salaries down. While I would love to see an extension get hammered out this offseason, I just don’t see it happening till he reaches free agency, when he can maximize his potential worth.
Perdoma might be ready to step into the lineup at SS sometime in 2021. Marte could fill the role till then if Ahmed were to leave.
As for Peralta, I wouldn’t extend him. I believe Hazen feels the same way. He likely will be dealt midseason once his value has been rebuilt after an injury plagued 2019.
There are prospects like Varsho & Rojas who might be able to fill LF/RF till the more highly touted guys like Thomas & Robinson are ready.
Ahmed as the outspoken critic and player’s rights advocate is news to me. But if he is, he has only his own union to blame for how the player’s piece of the pie is allocated. He should be taking it up with them and advocating for the younger players now that he’s becoming an older one. I bet he doesn’t, though.
He also will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time he’s a free agent and given almost all his value comes from his glove at a position that doesn’t welcome aging, he’d probably be wise to take what he can get in an extension now. By the time he hits the market, he may be viewed as a 2B glove and that’s not going to get him maximize his potential worth. His value is maximized right now. It will only decline from here.
Hazen/the D’backs would also be unwise to depend on the likes of Perdoma, Thomas and Robinson all becoming quality every day MLB players;. If one of them does, that will be nice. If two of them do, that will be awesome. If all three of them do, that will be a near miracle. It never works out that way. They need to hedge that by paying for some some solid veteran options. I don’t think Ahmed nor Peralta will be that all that expensive, relatively speaking, to keep. Again, because they aren’t spring chickens anymore. 3 year deals, modest money, should get it done.
Rojas looks little more than a replacement level player at this point. Really, a utility bench player. And I’d think they’re looking at Varsho as a future cornerstone somewhere,
He’s pretty highly touted himself. Unless they just can’t find a position for him. Then he’s probably trade-bait.
Why and how is 57mul off the books for the Cubs less payroll flexibility ?
It’s not that much. It’s about 30 million to spend compared to last year. That’s if Ricketts allows that level.
Yes it is
David Phelps 5MM
Brandon Morrow 12MM
Kendall Graveman 3MM
Tony Barnette 3MM
Cole Hamels 20MM
Descalso(5.5MM) Once he’s traded
That’s 50mil right there. Another 5MM for addison Russell.
55mil..
Ricketts wont allow more than 75 mil because his father cut him off.
no one wants Descalso
Descalso is not $5M.
Morrow had a $3 million buyout so you’re only saving $9 Mill. Baez, Contreras, Schwarber, and Bryant are all getting raises.
If the Cubs have the same payroll as last year, then they realistically have $25 million to spend on at least one starter, 2B, CF, and at least 2 bullpen arms.
Do buyouts count towards the salary total that would be subject to the luxury tax?
The guaranteed $ amounts are divided by the guaranteed years of control to come up with the AAV calculation for luxury tax purposes.
So, for instance, Morrow’s $3MM buyout was already accounted for during the AAV calculation for 2018 and 2019. If his option was picked up, then it’s considered a new contract for 2020 at its full value. The buyout portion is credited back to the team for the prior years of the contract.
raises to arb eligible players as well
It’s also 55mil after arbitration eligible players.
It will definitely be less than that – arbitration players will get raises which deduct from the amount of payroll that they shed.
Where do you see $55 million?
spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/payroll/
I see less than a million before they hit luxury tax
Right. And since they
spent about 30 million over the lowest threshold for 2019, if they spend to the same level for 2020, they have $30 million to spend.
David Phelps 5MM
Brandon Morrow 12MM
Kendall Graveman 3MM
Tony Barnette 3MM
Cole Hamels 20MM
Descalso(5.5MM) Once he’s traded
That’s 50mil right there. Another 5MM for addison Russell.
55mil..
55mil right here. And again that’s after arbitration contracts
You’re looking at 2020 contract values. You should be looking at 2019
or even better the AAV of the contract since that is what the luxury tax is based on.
Hamels $20M
Morrow $10.5M
Phelps $800K joined 8/1
Graveman $600K
Barnette $400K (went AWOl)
Russell $3.4 M
Descalso $2.5M
Other free agents you did not list $27 M
Total $65M
Now add in the raises
Bryant $5M
Schwarber $4M
Baez $4M
Rizzo $10M
Contreras $3M
Hendricks $7M
Bote $2.5M
Total $35.5M
Difference $29.5 M
Kimbrel replaced Zobrist. Their contracts’ AAV were both about $14M. though Zo only made about $4M for the 2+ months he played.
These are all rough estimates but I think you should see now it’s closer to $30 million. Check out Cubs Insider. They have an article about how much the Cubs can probably spend based on last year’s spending. They ended up at $32.5 million.
There should never be a discussion centering around the Cubs lacking financial flexibility to do anything. The franchise prints money. Any sort of budget constraint is self-inflicted by the Ricketts family who prefers running a business to winning championships.
I’m related to the Ricketts family (hence my username because i’m NOT a cubs fan) and one of them told me outright a year ago (at thanksgiving) that the Cubs will be winning the World Series in 2019. I laughed at him and bet him a dollar someone else would win in 2019. You think they don’t care about winning championships? The problem is going for it costs pieces in the farm and their farm is in shambles because of going for it two years in a row (2016 & 2017). I don’t think it’s about payroll. Show me one team that has won the World Series with the tax penalties payroll other than 2018 Boston.
The more they spend…….. the harder they fall
“Show me one team that has won the World Series with the tax penalties payroll other than 2018 Boston.”
That doesn’t mean it can’t be done all it means is that teams are staying away from the tax penalties. No reason at all the big market club owners can’t afford to pay tax penalties, make money and win WS. They’d just rather ignore the WS and pocket more cash.
the nationals just wont the world series while paying the tax and this is at least the 2nd year of paying it but i believe the 3rd
Not quite yet. They still pumped about 1 Billion into the park and and neighborhood. Plus the new TV deal doesn’t really start paying off for a couple of years. So I appreciate the effort Ricketts has made. He deserves to get some back b4 we say that.
It’s always going to be profits before winning. Winning is a bonus
I like Epsteins idea of NOT keeping players who will be unwilling to sign an extention. DUMP Bryant, Kemp, Descalso and Russell, find 1 good pitcher, Sign Castellanos and keep the rest. 95- 99 wins in 2020.
Ha ha ha
The M’s do not need another monster contract to cripple the franchise for years to come in Cole. Enough of that nonsense, Dipoto is not going to do that. They’re getting younger, let the youth develop rather than do more of the same.
True. Why get a monster contract to cripple the franchise when there they already have so many other ways to cripple the franchise. It’s a bit of overkill.
It’s the timing. They’ll try to land a front-line starter at some point, but that’s more likely to happen after or when Rodriguez, Kelenic and Gilbert debut.
It’s not going to cripple the franchise. That’s overreacting. You can still let the youth develop. You have to have at least some veteran stars on the club or it’s just going to be a team full of rookies. Why should the Mariners wait till the prospects turn into veterans? That’s a long wait
It wouldn’t cripple the franchise, but the team isn’t one starting pitcher away from contending. We went through this the other day.
They don’t know where else they’ll need veteran help yet. They won’t have to wait for the prospects to become veterans, most of top arms and fielders will debut in 2020 and 2021, but they will need at least year of experience to get an idea of what they can or might offer. Seattle won’t hit on all of them.
2021 is a target date for contention, but that’s optimistic and Cole won’t come cheap. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to burn through a couple of prime years at 30-36m AAV before they’ve seen the best of their prospects debut, and sacrificing a draft pick doesn’t make it any more appealing.
In a year or two Seattle may know exactly who their fielders are. They may very well have an extra bat/glove to use to acquire a front-line starter via trade–without shelling out 30-36m AAV on an arm. When you weigh the cost and risk, exercising patience makes the most sense.
I’ve never understood the “not one player away” argument. If the M’s think Cole is a good bet to remain an ace starter for the next six years, he’d be a great addition. Its not like they can add a player of that caliber whenever they want. The M’s need starters, and they don’t get better than Cole.
There are other reasons to not pursue him. Huge contracts for pitchers often don’t end well. The M’s aren’t the Yankees, so they need to be smart in how they invest moving forward. But the timing argument isn’t a good one.
If you don’t like the timing argument, take it up with Jerry. But you partially explained why timing is key: Huge contracts for pitchers don’t often end well, I agree. Burning a couple of years at an enormous cost–before any of the most important prospects have debuted–has everything to do timing.
The point about not being just one player away is directly related. Seattle isn’t going to spend big before they feel they can be relevant and know what they have. What if time proves they’re another 3+ years out? We watched the best years of Felix get wasted. We arguably saw the best of Cano get wasted as well.
The timing argument is this: why spend $35MM/year on Cole to win a few extra games when you’re still not going to contend? What’s the point?
If Kyle Lewis,Mallex Smith,Mitch Haniger,Anthony Rendon,JP Crawford,Shed Long,Austin Nola/Evan White,Tom Murphy/Austin Nola all as starters with Gerrit Cole,Marco Gonzales,Yusei Kikuchi,one year contract veteran,Justin Dunn in the rotation with Justus Sheffield being a spot starter for the year…if that doesnt sound like a playoff team to you then you’re not evaluating players very well.It is entirely possible to make the playoffs with this group. Will Dipoto go for it? I sure hope so. If we can get Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon then why wouldn’t we be contenders in 2020? Even if we only got Gerrit Cole we would contend
I can certainly appreciate your optimism, but most of those players are unproven and/or have flags. Long and Lewis had nice debuts, but we don’t know if Long can handle 2B full-time, Lewis struck out 38.7% of the time; Murphy hit ,211/.252/.401 with a 70wRC+ against RHP’s. Kikuchi was flat out terrible in his first MLB season, Sheffield has yet to make a quality start and Dunn couldn’t find the strike zone until his last couple of outings in which he was restricted to just a couple of innings each.
Mallex Smith was replacement level despite all the stolen bases and Haniger was struggling heavily at the plate before missing most of the season due to a couple of notable injuries. Crawford was solid defensively, but inconsistent offensively.
That said, I have every confidence in Haniger rebounding and I think Nola should be starting behind the dish. In fact, I like most of these young players. But so much would have to go right for Seattle to contend and that group isn’t going to win 95+ games even with both Rendon and Cole, no matter how optimistic you are and that’s part of the reason you aren’t going to see Jerry land either one.
Sounds like you dont like this team yet you want to keep em all and watch them develop. You’re kind of contradicting yourself.They dont have to win 95+ to contend. I didnt say they were gonna win the World Series. Mallex Smith and Haniger will have bounce back years. Tom Murphy did just fine. J.P. Crawford is improving and will increase his batting average. Kikuchi dealt with alot off the field. I have every reason to believe this team will perform. I’m not going to let one down year cloud my judgment
There’s no contradiction, you just refuse to accept the points I’ve made and what the reality is. Recognizing that prospects are unproven, or other players have limitations, doesn’t make me any less of a fan, either. Have you ever bothered to take a harder look at what each player offers and what their weaknesses are?
Last season it took 96 wins for Tampa to secure the second Wild Card. In 2018, it took Oakland 97 wins to get in. That gives you an idea where the bar is. Those two teams aren’t getting any worse. Other teams, such as Chicago and LA, will be looking to break out next season as well. There will be plenty of competition. Adding a couple of stars could boost Seattle 10 or so extra wins. They finished with 68 last season. They would need 14 just to get to .500..
Regarding the other players, nothing is definitive in baseball. I would love to see everyone who had rough 2019’s bounce back. Not all of them will. Not all will still be in Seattle. Murphy was a huge success last season, but he was restricted to LHP’s and I agree that Kikuchi dealt with a lot. His lack of command and control at times tells me the slickness of the baseballs might have been an issue. He didn’t have those problems in Japan. Narvaez didn’t do the pitchers any favors, either.
This wasn’t a down year, though. It was a rebuilding year that allowed a few young players to get opportunities. I call it a success, because they’re taking steps forward. They simply need more time to get more opportunities for the next wave of prospects. Once they know who fits, then they can address what’s still needed, and like I said before, those players may come via trade, rather than free agency.
You didnt make any points. Have fun beatin that dead horse
Benji, have you listened to any of the Divish & Stone podcasts? It’s looking like another 65 win season for the Mariners with expected free agent signings in the class of Andrew Cashner and Joe Ross. Mallex sucks, the team considers Dunn a failed starter, and Dipoto is just way too optimistic in his public pronouncements. And that’s from the beat writer!
TC Zencka:
You misspelled Marco Gonzales and as a result hyperlinked him to the wrong guy.
Thank you!
Tired of hearing about Schwarber. he’s an AL player. He always has been. Epstein’s dogged insistence on keeping him is ridiculous. In the NL you can’t have a player around that you automatically have to worry about removing in a close game when everyone insists on carrying 13 arms. And lets face it, the Cubs bullpen needs all the help it can get. Until Epstein wakes up, the downhill slide continues.
Schwarber is a 5% more athletic Dan Vogelbach
Schwarber led the team in home runs, had 91 RBIs, brought his BA up 35 points in the last month and had 6 errors, the SAME as gold glover Jason Hayward. Watch a game sometimes idiot.
If Cole were in his mid 20’s, I would be more on board with that a monster contract. The Mariners contention window may not be legitimately open until 2022, or 2023 – nobody knows what the future holds. They have Logan Gilbert, Justus Sheffield, and Justin Dunn. All of those guys, along with Gonzales and Kikuchi will be in the mix for the 2021 rotation and beyond. If I were to target a SP from this FA market, it would be Wheeler. He is the same age as Cole, but with seemingly untapped potential and would cost a lot less.
The only players who reach FA in their mid 20s are ones who started playing in their teens, like Harper and Machado.
You do realize MANY pitchers were elite into their LATE 30s and even 40s, right? Never understood this mindset of “all players decline once they turn 30” – its based on literally nothing. Why is age a big deal to you? Same thing goes for height, people say “he lacks size” but half the hall of famers who played before 1930 were like 5’5″ lol
You’re exaggerating in a vain attempt to make your point. Nobody said ‘all players decline when they turn 30…’ NOBODY said that. What they do say is that at 30 the window is shorter than, say, 27, 28, 29, What they do say is that there is a preponderance (not “literally based on nothing,” as you lamely suggest) of evidence to show that player performance usually declines in the mid-thirties. (This is why most long-term contracts FAIL for the team). The “MANY” pitchers who pitch into their late thirties or early forties and do so at the same level as when they were younger is a fraction of the total. A fraction. And those who did so and continued to be elite, like Mariano Rivera or Nolan Ryan, are HOFers. Hardly a model to base your pitching payroll on.
Please, get a grip.
You guys all thought Dipoto was out of his mind starting a rebuild after a season when the M’s won 89 games. Now you all love the decision. #4 farm, only 44 mil on the books in 2021. The Mariners are not a small market franchise, they can afford Cole AND Rendon and still have plenty of flexibility to extend plenty of prospects moving forward. Are you scared Dipoto is going to start trading all the prospects if they start winning? I trust Dipoto. The Mariners new motto should be- YES WE CAN!
Dipoto has suggested Seattle won’t be players for big-name free agents this offseason as they’re not quite to that point yet. If you trust him, you should trust his judgement, right?
He’ll have his numbers and he’ll do his due diligence, but landing two of the best free agents this offseason is a huge stretch.
All I heard was that Dipoto wasn’t going to be making a flurry of huge trade splashes.He also said that he wasn’t going to do a rebuild last offseason but when he sees an opportunity to make the club better he goes and does it.He strikes while the iron is hot.Things change quickly in baseball these days. It’s not out of the question for the Mariners to contend in 2020 with Cole and Rendon. The outfield and the infield would be solid with upgrades coming up from within the system. With two aces they could make it into the ALDS. So you wouldn’t be wasting any of Coles prime years, or Rendons for that matter, if they can sign him. But they gotta get Cole first. It would make for a wonderful New Years Day celebration
He never said he wasn’t going to rebuild last offseason. You’re mistaken.
If a deal to good to pass presented itself, sure. That won’t be the case with Cole or Rendon, and it would take a lot more than those 2 who would have to want to come as well.
Don’t get your hopes up.
He said he was open to trading a few key players and the whole thing blew up. He was trying to downplay it until the rebuild rapidly got underway. He was trying to suppress the rumors in the first part of the offseason last year
Lennon’s Dad-
mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mariners-reportedly-wei…
You as a Mariners fan should understand what he said, because it was explained a thousand times and it’s even in your link below.
Jerry never said he wouldn’t rebuild. He said he didn’t intend to do a teardown.
And he didn’t. That’s why Haniger and Gonzales are still there.
It was a tear down
No one, and let me be clear here, NO ONE loves what Dipoto is doing. Trader Jerry is the biggest fraud in the game and you are utterly blind to his idiocy and total lack of direction. He should be banned from GMing, he’s the worst GM in decades.
I love what Dipoto is doing.
His plan was to shed as much payroll as possible and give the team flexibility for the future. I’d say that he has accomplished that.
It remains to be seen if he can now go build a winner, but so far he has done exactly what he needed to do.
Not to mention they went from basically the worst farm system to number four in a year. That’s impressive
Well at least he’s not throwing money around like a mad man like Bill Bavasi and Jack did
Nobody asked me but if I was Epstein I would:
1. Trade Schwarber, Happ, Almora, Quintana and Russell for anything I could get.
2. Keep Contreras and put him in RF. Great Emergency C also. Win-Win
3. Move Heyward to CF.
4. Sign Castellanos and put him in LF
5. See if I could get Odirizzi. Sign a vet C to pair with Caratini.
6. Maybe, Just Maybe Heyward’ s contract isn’t so untradeable anymore? I’d find out.
Anyway it’s a start.
I don’t think very many teams will want Russell especially with that domestic violence suspension on his record. And yes I know that Chapman has that, too, but the Yankees don’t seem to care. Neither do the Astros with Osuna.
Hence- Anything I could get. A six pack would be awesome.
You might get a peanut vending machine & a frozen deep dish pizza
For Russell,? Sold
You want to trade half their lineup? Why the heck would you trade the best catcher in baseball? Or at the very least 2nd best. That dumb. Schwarber and Contreras could should and would easily bring back at minimum 6 players back in 1 trade 2 trades or a 3 team trade.
My point is its not worth trading either one
Where exactly did I say trade Contreras? Reading is after all a skill.
Why move Contreras away from C? He’s excellent there.
Hey “uncle mike”. Go root for some other team.
1. You’re not getting much if anything for that group of players.
2. Contreras is not athletic enough to play RF. LF, yes. My 14 year old son could probably play LF as good as Schwarber does.
3. Shuffling players around won’t accomplish much.
4. Not a bad idea.
5. The cubs need a hard throwing ace on the staff that’s not getting any younger.
6. Heyward would have been gone yesterday if that were true. Epstein really screwed himself with Heyward’s ridiculous contract.
Without a doubt, Eloy Jimenez is much worse on defense than Schwarbs is, on Schwarbs worst day. Eloy is a disaster on D.
Epic homerism induced by cubbie koolaid.
That’s not even remotely true, Eloy is an el-JOY on defense compared to doughboy Schwarber
I hope you are going to go out and get some big time strikeout pitchers with that outfield. A catcher in right, a corner outfielder in center and a DH in left? If I were a starting pitcher on that team I would get TJ surgery just so I could miss the year.
And thats why nobody asked you. What a ridiculous plan.
Cole won’t go to the Mariners. pushing sucks in Seattle. Mine as well be a 1 mean rotation then.
Seems like Giles to the Cubs is a no-brainer. They could use an elite closer. Possibly as part of a bigger, Schwarber deal with prospects going to Cubs.
Giles? Elite Closer? I call BS
Blake Treinen for Ian Happ lets go
The trade Schwarber ship has sailed already. It makes zero sense to trade a guy that is most likely to going to give the club 40 homers, .900OPS and makes opposing pitchers work hard to get him out. He is an absolute bargain for what he brings to the table.
He. has never hit 40 homers, and he has never had an OPS above .870 – and now he’s “most likely” going to put up 40 homers and a .900 OPS? I don’t think that’s how it works. It’s certainly a possibility, but to say it’s likely is a MAJOR stretch.
Pursuing cole is dumb, and frankly not needed to be a contender.
Strasburg makes more sense, and I think fits the team better. I agree though that the Ms need to get a 1-2 arm to cap off a blooming rotation. Selling strasburg on being on the nationals 2.0 with a chance to relive that feeling again would be a strong sale. Coupled with nearly unlimited funds strasburg to the mariners is my early call.
Dee/Haniger to the cubs for Quintana/chatwood
Stasburg
Dunn
Quintana
Sheffield
Gonzales
Chatwood to the pen
There is no way Quintana and Chatwood get Haniger. That is selling WAY low on that guy and it doesn’t make sense for Seattle to do that.
bigdaddy may be a little off here, but don’t sell Chatwood too short, he has really good stuff and his control improved greatly last year. Quintana is a number 4 in my opinion though.
Strasburg will absolutely never sign with Seattle over SD. He probably won’t even sign with an AL team over an NL one. Why change leagues and deal with the new hitters and the DH? Its not like Seattle’s going to offer THAT much more money, it would have to be like $400M vs SDs $250M or something.
Trading Bryant & Contreras can fill many holes on a team that did not make the Playoffs in 2019 !
Go Cubs in 2020.
Greinke isn’t off the books. They are paying him 10M ieach of the next two seasons as per the terms of the trade with Houston.
I’m curious about AZ’s ownership. I’m aware that much of revenue is tied to TV contracts and there have been legal battles about the lease on the stadium. But the 5th most populous city has an apparently sharp FO(now) and a promising position player core, but a payroll that low?
As a Dodger fan, I want more division competition and AZ has most potential at this point.
5th most populous in US.
Corey Brock’s article about the Mariners pursuing Garrit Cole actually makes more sense for the Dbacks.! Dbacks could trade or dump 5 players in the last years of control (Peralta, Ray, Lamb, Leake and Souza) and save $34.5MM in 2020, to sign Cole. They could then rebuild their entire OF and add a Closer for $20MM more, which they can afford. And the Dbacks would be serious contenders for the WS for the next 8 years.
Cubs are currently without a 1 or 2 starter which means they are definitely not the best in the division at the moment. ANYBODY who says the inconsistent and oft injured Darvish is anything but a solid #3 is off their meds. Hendricks also is a solid 3 starter. Quintana is dreadful, and Lester has nothing left., They need starting pitching badly. Their bullpen is in total rebuild mode as well with only Wieck, Wick, Chatwood, and Kimbrel penciled in for 2020 so far. The Indians, Braves, and Athletics offer the most tradeable high quality pitching pieces if the Cubs are willing to deal Contreras or Bryant to those teams. I think the offense will be okay with Schwarber starting to hit his stride, a healthy Baez, and the consistent Rizzo. Happ and Hoerner should also be more productive in 2020.
Would make sense for Seattle to go after 1 of those 3 sp kinda hard to bet that every single prospect is gonna be a hit and they haven’t been to the playoffs in 20 something years so why not take a chance not sure if I’d go for Rendon at least not till they could dump Seager to some team
You trade Bryant and save around 18 million on that deal so they would have around 50 to spend while getting some good prospects back at the lower levels. I think Bryant would get you at least 2-3 top 100 prospects from a team that has them. Not sure at this point who that would be.
Then you spend around 18 million on Donaldson, trade Contreras for Merrifield and a top 100 prospect. Use 2 of Happ, Russell, Almora, Descalso for trades involving bullpen help.
Then you still have 32 million to spend on starting pitching and have prospects 3-4 top 100 prospects in your system to go along with Hoerner. The Farm would look much better and be stocked back up.
Use that 32 million on Ryu or Ordorizzi and a dependable backup catcher.
Starting lineup
Merrifield CF, Rizzo 1st, Baez SS, Hoerner 2nd, Heyward RF, Donaldson 3rd, Carantini C, Schwarber LF
SP
Lester, Quintana, Darvish, Odorizzi/ Ryu, Hendricks
BP
Wick, Wieck, Chatwood (swingman starter depth), Kimbrel, 3 guys with trades in Descalso, Happ, Russell, Almora
4 top 100 pieces (preferably 2 pitchers on that list) and Alzolay
Bench you keep 1 of Happ, Almora, Russell, Descalso
Catcher you get Vogt or Martin to help with leadership and would both be bargains to backup Carantini
Sign a Sogard, Kipnis, Gennett type for infield depth, will not be a huge price tag on those types
vet outfield backup and you are set. Get it done Theo!