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Kyle Schwarber

NL Notes: Pirates, Santana, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Kahnle

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The Pirates’ signing of Carlos Santana was in part driven by the team’s belief that next year’s restriction on infield shifts will help to boost the veteran switch-hitter’s production, general manager Ben Cherington told reporters after finalizing the deal this week (link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Beyond that, Santana’s reputation as a leader and mentor for younger players appealed to the club, as did a strong batted-ball profile that featured quality marks in metrics like average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and more.

At one year and $6.725MM, the Santana signing was somewhat remarkably the largest free-agent commitment given out by Cherington since he was hired to guide the Pirates’ latest rebuilding effort back in 2019. Cherington stressed there are other needs to address and that the Pirates, currently projected by Roster Resource to carry just a $54MM payroll, are hopeful of completing some additional deals.

A few more items out of the National League…

  • The Reds inked local product Luke Maile to a one-year contract, setting the stage for him to serve as Tyler Stephenson’s backup. However, general manager Nick Krall suggested after signing Maile the team isn’t closed off to the possibility of adding a third catcher to the big league roster (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). “There is a chance,” Krall noted, pointing out that the addition of the universal designated hitter gives teams the flexibility to more easily work with three backstops. The Reds were reportedly in touch with Tucker Barnhart about a potential reunion before signing Maile, though there’s no indication they’re strongly pursuing him after coming to terms with Maile. Still, Stephenson missed significant time in 2022 with a broken thumb, a concussion and a broken collarbone, and he also has 147 innings of big league experience at first base. There’s some sense to bringing in another catcher — particularly if it’s someone who can handle multiple spots on the diamond to give the Reds some more flexibility.
  • The Phillies were dealt a tough blow last week with the revelation Bryce Harper required a full Tommy John procedure. The Phils announced Harper was expected to return as a bat-only option by the All-Star Break while playing the outfield again at some point in the second half. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski left open the possibility of an earlier return this week (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic) but suggested he didn’t want to project any kind of more optimistic timeline. “In my own mind, I’m looking at the All-Star break. Anything that’s before that is great,” Dombrowski said. The veteran executive downplayed the need for the Phils to add an outfielder in response to the surgery, pointing out that any pickup would lose his path to everyday playing time once Harper returned. The DH-only role would force Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into the corner outfield regularly to flank center fielder Brandon Marsh, with righty-hitting Matt Vierling on hand as the fourth outfielder. Dombrowski suggested that while the Phils will be “open-minded” to the possibility of adding on the grass, “it’s not a priority for us.“
  • Adding to the bullpen is certainly a key objective for the Mets, who saw each of Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Trevor May hit free agency. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that New York is one of several teams to have looked into Tommy Kahnle, although he cautions it’s presently unclear how interested the Mets are in the free agent right-hander. Kahnle is an interesting upside play. He lost almost all of 2020-21 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and renewed arm inflammation cost him almost four months with the Dodgers this past season. Kahnle allowed only four runs in 12 2/3 innings when healthy enough to pitch, though, striking out 14 against three walks. The 33-year-old racked up swinging strikes at a massive 17.2% clip while leaning on his stellar changeup more than three-quarters of the time. Kahnle posted a 3.67 ERA with an elite 35.5% strikeout rate over 72 appearances with the Yankees in 2019, his most recent full season.

Injury Notes: Harper, Schwarber, Daza, Harris, Canterino

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Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper, on the shelf due to June surgery to repair a broken left thumb and also playing through a torn UCL in his right elbow, is backing off his throwing program due to ongoing stiffness in his right elbow, Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson told reporters this week (link via Scott Lauber of the Philly Inquirer).  Harper played through that ligament tear for months before an errant Blake Snell heater broke his left thumb and forced him to the injured list, though he’d been limited to DH work because the elbow tear prevented him from throwing.

Offseason Tommy John surgery is a possibility, though there’d been some hope that after receiving an injection in May, Harper might yet be able to gut it out and play right field upon returning.  For now, the Phils are just going to “concentrate on the hitting” aspect of Harper’s recovery, per Thomson, who added that there’s “no doubt in my mind” Harper will be back in the lineup this season.  He still needs to regain some flexibility in his thumb, from which doctors removed three pins back on Aug. 1.  Given the lengthy layoff, Harper will also need a minor league rehab assignment of some length.

More on other injury situations from around baseball…

  • In another concern for the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber left today’s game with what Thomson told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb) was a mild right calf strain.  Schwarber will undergo tests but is currently considered day-to-day.  With an NL-leading 34 home runs, Schwarber has provided his typical power in his first season in Philadelphia, and the Phillies can only hope that the calf strain won’t require a lengthy IL stint.
  • Outfielder Yonathan Daza suffered what the Rockies described as a left shoulder sprain in today’s game against the Cardinals.  Daza suffered the injury while making a running catch to rob Nolan Arenado of a hit in the first inning, as the momentum took Daza to the ground and he immediately grabbed at his shoulder.  Now in his third MLB season, Daza has hit .299/.345/.367 over 307 plate appearances with Colorado in 2022, getting the majority of playing time as the Rockies’ starting center fielder.
  • Will Harris has yet to pitch in 2022, and the veteran reliever has now suffered another setback in the form of a groin injury.  (The Washington Post’s Andrew Golden was among those to report the news.)  Harris underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in June 2021 and then a related pectoral surgery last March, but the righty seemed to be on the way back when he started a minor league rehab assignment in late July.  However, Harris hasn’t pitched with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate since August 2, bringing fresh doubt as to whether or not he can return to a big league mound before the season is over.  It is possible Harris has already thrown his last pitch as a National, since his three-year, $24MM deal with the team is up at season’s end.
  • Twins pitching prospect Matt Canterino will undergo Tommy John surgery this month, as initially reported by SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link).  Canterino has been plagued by elbow injuries for the better part of two seasons, limiting the right-hander to just 60 total innings since the start of the 2021 minor league season.  As Twins assistant GM Jeremy Zoll told The St. Paul Pioneer Press’ Betsy Helfand and other reporters, “it felt like we didn’t have any more stones to turn over, and Matt was feeling like surgery was the right call for him to try and get him back up and running from there.”  Canterino was the Twins’ second-round pick in the 2019 draft, and he has an impressive 1.48 ERA and 39.16% strikeout rate over 85 career innings in pro ball.  As per the normal timeline for TJ recovery, Canterino won’t be back until August 2023 at the absolute earliest, and it is quite possible he’ll be sidelined until Spring Training 2024.

List Of Home Run Derby Contestants

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July 14: Rangers shortstop Corey Seager will return to Dodger Stadium as the final Derby participant, Texas announced. Seager, who was also named to the American League All-Star team this afternoon as an injury replacement, has hit 21 homers on the season. He also appeared in the 2016 Home Run Derby.

July 13, 6:25pm: Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez will also participate, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (on Twitter). Ramirez has never participated in the Derby before, but he’ll join the event amidst a 17-homer season. Like Rodriguez, he’ll be part of the American League All-Star team the following night.

July 13, 3:50pm: Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez announced on social media that he will be joining the contest. As a rookie, this will naturally be his first appearance in the derby.

July 12: Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber has joined the field, with Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer relaying that he himself posted about it on Instagram.

July 11, 9:21pm: Nationals star Juan Soto will also participate. The Talk Nats blog first reported (on Twitter) that Soto would accept an invitation if offered and Héctor Gómez of Z101 confirmed he’d be in the event. Soto, who was a part of last year’s event, has hit 17 longballs on the season. He’ll also be part of the NL All-Star Team the following night.

7:06pm: The 2022 Home Run Derby will take place next Monday, and the field is beginning to take shape. Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. each announced this afternoon that they’d be participating, while Katie Woo of the Athletic reports that Cardinals designated hitter Albert Pujols will partake as well.

Pujols’ participation is the most surprising (and notable) of the three. He’s a four-time contestant but hasn’t appeared in a Derby in more than a decade. He’s only hit five longballs this year but twice led the National League during his first stint in St. Louis and is fifth all-time in homers. In his final big league season, Pujols is already set to head to the All-Star Game in recognition of his career. He’ll add the Derby to the celebration.

Alonso is hoping to defend his two straight titles. The New York slugger won in 2019, then backed that up with another championship last year. (The 2020 Derby was canceled). Along the way, he knocked off Acuña in the semifinals during the 2019 event. Atlanta’s star outfielder will join the festivities for a second time. Both Alonso and Acuña will team with Pujols on the NL All-Stars; Alonso is a reserve, while Acuña will be in Brian Snitker’s starting lineup.

Phillies Notes: Herrera, Girardi, Schwarber

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Odubel Herrera is on his way to a rehab assignment with Lehigh Valley, which could mean a return to the active roster by next Friday when the club returns home, per Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). Without Herrera, 25-year-old Matt Vierling has been starting most games in center, but he’s struggled to the tune of a 14 wRC+ (though the sample size is a mere 24 plate appearances).

23-year-old Simon Muzziotti was called up, but Muzziotti has yet to garner regular playing time. Herrera figures to step in as the regular starter when he returns, while Vierling will shift mostly to a short-side platoon. It would not be surprising to see Muzziotti optioned back to Triple-A at that time so that he can get more regular playing time.  The Phils have largely been functioning with a four-man bench.

On the whole, the Phillies haven’t gotten off to the kind of start that they expected after a winter that included a couple big-name additions. It’s incredibly early, of course, but today’s loss dropped Philly to 4-6 in their first ten. After noticing some trends he doesn’t like, manager Joe Girardi has started tinkering with his lineups to find better balance, writes The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Namely, Kyle Schwarber has been bumped from the leadoff spot down to fifth. J.T. Realmuto will move from the two hole down to one. Girardi didn’t like how easy it was for teams to bring in a southpaw to face both Schwarber and Bryce Harper with only Realmuto in between, so Girardi will now use both Nick Castellanos and Rhys Hoskins to separate his lefties.

Odubel Herrera Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day

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Phillies center fielder Odúbel Herrera has a mild strain in his right oblique, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) this afternoon. He’s not expected to be ready for Opening Day, and Girardi suggested he could be sidelined for four-to-six weeks.

The Phils declined Herrera’s $11.5MM club option at the outset of the offseason, seemingly ending his seven-year run in the organization. Philadelphia circled back after the lockout, however, re-signing him on a $1.75MM pact. He entered camp as the favorite to reprise his role as the regular center fielder, but it seems the Phillies will need to look to alternatives in the early going.

Matt Vierling looks likely to get the first crack at the job, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com wrote yesterday the 25-year-old would be the probable primary center fielder so long as Herrera was on the shelf. Vierling had a nice 34-game run to begin his big league career late last year, but his .248/.331/.359 line in 236 plate appearances with Triple-A Lehigh Valley casts some doubt on his ability to shoulder an everyday workload. Former top ten draftees Adam Haseley and Mickey Moniak are alternatives on the 40-man roster, but Girardi said the Phils haven’t given any consideration to playing Moniak in center. Haseley can handle the position defensively, but he limped to a .224/.282/.295 performance with Lehigh Valley last season.

One option not under consideration is kicking Bryce Harper over from right field to center. The reigning NL MVP has some experience up the middle, but Girardi told reporters yesterday (via Zolecki) the organization didn’t want to jeopardize his health by handing him that kind of defensive burden. Harper will stick in right field, and Girardi said today he viewed Kyle Schwarber as his primary left fielder (via Jayson Stark of the Athletic). Fellow offseason signee Nick Castellanos will spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter, relieving Schwarber or Harper in the corner outfield as needed.

Phillies To Sign Kyle Schwarber

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March 20: The Phillies have announced the signing, placing Kent Emanuel on the 60-day IL as a corresponding move. Emanuel went on the IL in June of last year with left elbow while with the Astros and never returned. Claimed by the Phillies in November, it seems he’s not close to being recovered, as the Phils announced that he has a left elbow impingement.

March 16, 11:06am: It’s a four-year, $79MM contract, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

8:54am: Schwarber and the Phillies have agreed to a four-year deal with an annual value just shy of $20MM, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic.

8:31am: The Phillies have reached an agreement with Schwarber, pending a physical, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.

8:21am: The Phillies are “making progress” on a deal with free-agent slugger Kyle Schwarber, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Schwarber had recently been linked to the Blue Jays, but Shi Davidi and Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reported a few minutes ago that the team had become “pessimistic” about its chances of signing Schwarber, believing he was likely to sign elsewhere.

Kyle Schwarber | Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Schwarber, 29, has been one of the most sought-after free agents on the market in the days since MLB’s lockout was lifted — thanks in no small part to the implementation of the universal designated hitter. The longtime Cubs left fielder was non-tendered by Chicago after the 2020 season but parlayed a one-year deal with the Nationals (and a subsequent trade to the Red Sox) into a surefire multi-year deal in his second foray into free agency.

While Schwarber got out to a lukewarm start with the Nats in 2021, he erupted with one of the most prodigious hot streaks in big league history in mid-June. From June 12-29, a span of just 18 games, Schwarber launched a staggering 16 home runs through just 77 plate appearances. That astonishing run was cut short by a hamstring strain that sidelined him for more than a month, but the Red Sox had no qualms about trading for Schwarber even while he was on the injured list.

The Boston front office was surely glad it did so, as Schwarber returned with that same thunder the moment he was activated from the injured list. In 168 plate appearances with the Red Sox down the stretch, he turned in a huge .291/.435/.522 slash with seven homers and 10 doubles as the Red Sox surged to an AL East division title. Schwarber clocked three more home runs during the postseason, including a now-iconic grand slam that keyed a Game 3 ALCS romp over the Astros, but his bat fell quiet thereafter, as he finished out the series in an 0-for-15 funk while the ’Stros came back to topple the Sox.

Slow start to the year notwithstanding, Schwarber hit .266/.374/.554 with a whopping 32 home runs in just 471 plate appearances during the regular season. Add in his postseason efforts, and Schwarber carries a .260/.365/.542 with 35 home runs in 520 plate appearances since the Cubs non-tendered him.

Signing with the Phillies will reunite Schwarber with former Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long, who left the Nats’ staff at season’s end and signed on for a reunion with manager Joe Girardi, under whom he’d previously coached with the Yankees. Long’s presence certainly couldn’t have hurt the Phillies’ efforts to sign Schwarber, and it’s of some note that he’ll now continue working with the same hitting coach who helped coax that career-altering run from him during the ’21 season.

Schwarber’s role with the Phillies depends, to an extent, on the remainder of the team’s moves. While he’ll probably spend some time in left field and at designated hitter regardless, the division of his workload between those two spots hinges on whether the Phils make another clear upgrade in the outfield. At the moment, the Phillies don’t have a clear, everyday option in left field. Bryce Harper is, of course, locked into right field, but the rest of the outfield remains in a state of flux. The Phils brought Odubel Herrera back on a one-year, $1.75MM deal, and he’s joined by Adam Haseley, Mickey Moniak and Luke Williams as outfield options on the roster. Suffice it to say, at least one more newly acquired bat seems likely to join Schwarber in the Opening Day lineup by the time all is said and done.

The scope of any further additions seems likely to be driven by the luxury tax. Phillies owner John Middleton has staunchly resisted exceeding the tax line in the past two seasons, and today’s addition of Schwarber will push the Phils to roughly $216-217MM in luxury obligations, depending on the specifics (hat tip to Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). That’ll leave the Phils with somewhere in the vicinity of $13-14MM of breathing room to add at least one more outfielder and any other supplemental pieces the front office desires. Teams generally want to leave at least a few million dollars for in-season dealings, so it could be that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is dealing with a bit less than that projected $13-14MM.

Of course, additional trades or a simple change of heart with regard to Middleton’s luxury-tax aversion could change the calculus. Dombrowski made clear early in the offseason that shortstop Didi Gregorius would have to earn a starting job after a dismal showing in 2021, and he’s been listed as a speculative candidate to be moved in a change-of-scenery swap. The Phils could also try to dump the contract of outrighted utilityman Scott Kingery on another club as well, which would free up another $4MM in luxury space.

Barring any such trades or philosophical changes in ownership thinking, Dombrowski will be working with some notable financial limitations from here on out. That might mean a shift to the trade market or pursuing some smaller-scale free agents in hopes of securing a bargain. Time will tell just how the front office will proceed, but the addition of Schwarber to a lineup that ranked 15th in the Majors in home runs and 13th in runs scored will provide a notable jolt in production.

Blue Jays “Making Push” For Kyle Schwarber

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The Blue Jays are “making a big push” for Kyle Schwarber, tweets Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Marly Rivera of ESPN reported (on Twitter) this evening the Jays had interest in the lefty-hitting outfielder. Heyman adds that multiple teams remain in the mix but puts Toronto among the frontrunners for his services.

Toronto has been tied to a few marquee bats, as reports suggest they’re at least on the periphery of the Freddie Freeman market. Presumably, a Schwarber deal would take the Jays out of the running for the 2020 NL MVP, but he’d be a notable boon to their offense himself.

Schwarber, who turned 29 last week, is coming off a career-best season. Non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, he signed a $10MM deal with the Nationals. The Indiana University product hit .253/.340/.570 with 25 home runs across 303 plate appearances with Washington. That included an unreal 16-homer month of June that had made Schwarber the league’s hottest hitter before he suffered a severe hamstring strain in early July.

He spent the next six weeks on the injured list, during which time the Nationals fell out of contention. The Red Sox acquired Schwarber in a deadline deal despite his injury, with plans to have him rotate between first base and left field for the stretch run. He returned in mid-July and picked up right where he’d left off pre-injury, popping seven homers with a .291/.435/.522 line in 41 games with Boston. (The midseason trade also made him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer).

Between the two clubs, Schwarber posted a .266/.374/.554 line with 32 homers over 471 plate appearances. That production was 45 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. As he has throughout his career, Schwarber was a bit prone to strikeouts (27%), but he also drew walks at an elite 13.6% clip and posted top-of-the-scale power production. He ranked in the 90th percentile or better in terms of average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact percentage. It was the kind of middle-of-the-order output many expected from Schwarber when he was drafted fourth overall and ranked as one of the sport’s top offensive prospects.

The corner outfield market is robust, with Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Conforto all joining Schwarber in the ranks of the unsigned. Freeman and Anthony Rizzo are the top options at first base, leaving plenty of possibilities for clubs in search of an upgrade to the middle of the lineup.

In addition to their search for a big-ticket bat, the Jays have been looking for infield and bullpen help. Héctor Gómez of Z 101 reported over the weekend (on Twitter) that Toronto was looking into a reunion with versatile infielder Jonathan Villar. The switch-hitter played briefly with the Jays late in 2020 and struggled, but he bounced back with a decent .249/.322/.416 showing over 505 plate appearances for the Mets last season. The Jays could use some help at either of second or third base (with Cavan Biggio taking the other position), and Villar may be the top option remaining in free agency.

On the relief front, the Jays have checked in with closer Kenley Jansen, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The market for the longtime Dodger has been fairly quiet to this point, but he’s arguably the best remaining late-game option. The typically excellent Jansen tossed 69 innings with a 2.22 ERA last season, punching out an elite 30.9% of opponents.

Rockies Interested In Kyle Schwarber

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The Rockies had interest in Kyle Schwarber prior to the lockout, The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders writes.  With the Rockies known to be looking for outfield help and more hitting in general, it isn’t surprising that Schwarber is on the team’s target list, and Saunders figures the team will make a continued push for the slugger once the transactions freeze is lifted.

Despite the thin air of Coors Field, the Rockies’ lineup has been generally inconsistent over the last few years, and the team now faces the likely departure of Trevor Story in the free agent market.  A proven power bat like Schwarber would help greatly in replacing or even topping Story’s offensive production, while also solidifying at least one position within Colorado’s outfield.  Beyond longtime staple Charlie Blackmon, the Rox have several outfield options (Raimel Tapia, Connor Joe, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza, Ryan Vilade, and multi-position player Garrett Hampson) but none who present a clear everyday answer.

There’s also the designated hitter spot to consider, as the likely adoption of the universal DH means the Rockies will have another position to address.  Schwarber or Blackmon could be options here, and since Schwarber played some first base during his stint with the Red Sox last year, the Rockies could conceivably use Schwarber in the infield when regular first baseman C.J. Cron is given a day off or a DH day.

It isn’t exactly been a quiet offseason in Denver, as the Rockies extended Cron before free agency opened, re-signed Jhoulys Chacin, and the team also worked out extensions with righty Antonio Senzatela and catcher Elias Diaz.  However, the Rox and general manager Bill Schmidt haven’t done much in the way of adding any new talent to the roster, despite the organization’s oft-stated goal of contending in 2022.

That said, the Rockies have at least explored some notable additions, as they also had interest in Kris Bryant earlier this winter.  Saunders doesn’t feel the Rockies will meet Bryant’s asking price, and that same logic could also apply to a pair of other major outfielders still on the open market.  Signing either Michael Conforto or Nick Castellanos (who each rejected the qualifying offer) would cost the Rockies a draft pick, plus Castellanos was also reportedly looking for a long-term commitment of at least seven years for his next contract.

It should be noted that the Rockies would get an compensatory pick if/when Story signs elsewhere, so with some extra draft capital to play with, Schmidt didn’t outright reject the idea of signing a QO free agent.  In any case, the qualifying offer doesn’t apply to Schwarber, as his midseason trade to the Red Sox made him ineligible, so he can be signed without any draft pick penalty.

Between the lack of draft compensation, his reported aim for a relatively modest three-year deal in the $60MM range, and his track record at the plate, Schwarber could be considered the most attractive option within the top tier of remaining free agent outfielders (Bryant, Castellanos, Conforto, and Seiya Suzuki).  Of course, the Rockies aren’t alone in targeting Schwarber, as the Phillies, Marlins, Nationals, and Red Sox have all shown varied levels of interest in his services this winter, and any number of other teams are also speculative fits.  While Schwarber’s contractual ask may fall within Colorado’s comfort zone, then, the Rockies may still have to outbid other teams that can offer either more money, or a more clear-cut chance at contending next season.

Where Will Castellanos And Schwarber Land?

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As comparable bat-first players, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber were the topic of a Free Agent Faceoff post by Darragh McDonald last week.  Back on November 8th, MLBTR projected a five-year, $115MM contract for Castellanos (who also requires draft pick compensation) and a four-year, $70MM deal for Schwarber.

We debated whether such a financial gap makes sense – is Castellanos really that much better right now?  Ultimately we projected the difference to represent our guess at the perception of the two players: Castellanos has always been a regular in his career and signed a four-year, $64MM free agent deal already, while Schwarber was non-tendered after the 2020 season and was often shielded against lefties as a member of the Cubs.  We could be wrong about this supposed difference in perception; the post-lockout market will provide the answer.  On November 29th, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Castellanos sought a seven or eight-year deal.

Since switching to the outfield full-time in 2018, Castellanos has spent the vast majority of his defensive innings in right field.  Schwarber settled in as a left fielder as of 2017, though the Red Sox used him as a first baseman in 10 regular season games plus another nine in the postseason.  In a perfect world, both players might spend most of their time at designated hitter, which seems likely to become a permanent part of the National League in 2022.  One key difference between the two is that Castellanos bats right-handed, and Schwarber bats left-handed.  Let’s take a look at potential suitors.

  • White Sox: Eloy Jimenez is entrenched in left field and Jose Abreu will play first base in ’22, but the Sox could consider an upgrade at right field or designated hitter, where Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets currently project to see time.  Signing Castellanos would result in the club forfeiting their second-highest draft pick in ’22 and having their international signing pool reduced by $500K, assuming rules from the previous CBA carry over for the remainder of the offseason.  I don’t see the White Sox making this level of financial commitment with decent options already in-house.
  • Guardians:  The Guardians’ DH spot is occupied by Franmil Reyes, but they don’t have much going on at the outfield corners and figure to make some sort of addition.  The franchise has never guaranteed a player more than the $60MM they gave Carlos Santana five years ago.  It’s possible the price tag for Castellanos or Schwarber falls into that range.  The Guardians have perhaps $36MM accounted for across eight players earning more than the league minimum.  Aside from Jose Ramirez at $12MM, they might not have another player set to earn more than $5MM in 2022.  If the team runs a $50MM Opening Day payroll again, then Castellanos and Schwarber won’t be part of it, but the team reached $135MM as recently as 2018.  The Guardians also face a smaller draft pick penalty, as they’d surrender only their third-highest pick for Castellanos.
  • Tigers: Castellanos was a first round draft pick of the Tigers in 2010 and remained with the organization until his 2019 trade to the Cubs.  On the way out, he called Comerica Park “a joke,” so he’s probably not looking to return.  Aside from that, Castellanos would actually look really good at an outfield corner or the DH spot for the Tigers, and their draft pick compensation would be reduced since they already signed Eduardo Rodriguez.  But the club hasn’t given indications it’s looking to upgrade at those spots, so both Castellanos and Schwarber are probably out.
  • Royals: The Royals have never given a free agent more than $72MM, and that was their own guy in Alex Gordon.  Otherwise, I think adding one of these players at right field or DH would improve the club.
  • Twins: The Twins could upgrade on projected left fielder Trevor Larnach, but given the state of their starting rotation this doesn’t seem likely.
  • Red Sox: Though they traded for Schwarber during the summer, I’m not sure a big commitment to either player is necessary or fits Chaim Bloom’s m.o.  They’ve got good first base options in Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas.  J.D. Martinez has the DH spot at least for 2022.  Boston’s outfield is a bit unsettled with the swap of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., but they’ve still got Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Jarren Duran in the mix.  Hernandez could play second base and Schwarber or Castellanos could work here, if Bloom is OK with the commitment.  Bloom did maintain interest in Schwarber in his public comments, even after Martinez opted in.
  • Yankees:  The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at the outfield corners, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Luke Voit at first base.  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber doesn’t make much sense.  They still haven’t added a shortstop or starting pitching.
  • Rays: The Rays have never given a free agent more than $30MM in the Stuart Sternberg era.  They’re also flush with outfielders, even if they’re not at the proven offensive levels of Castellanos and Schwarber.  Perhaps if the bottom drops out for Schwarber’s market, the Rays trade away an outfielder or two, and they decide they’d like a big bat, this could make sense.  But it’s highly unlikely.
  • Blue Jays: Between right field and DH, the Jays could accommodate Castellanos or Schwarber.  A third baseman would seem a more obvious fit, but the Jays could pivot to one of these bats if needed or even add at both spots.
  • Astros: There’s simply not a spot for either player, with Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel already in tow.
  • Angels:  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber would involve pushing aside Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell, who have had limited success in the Majors thus far.  It’s not out of the question, but the Angels have more pressing needs at shortstop and in the rotation.  The Angels would have to give up their third-highest pick to sign Castellanos, having already forfeited their second rounder to sign Noah Syndergaard.
  • Mariners: It’d be odd to see the Mariners sign Castellanos or Schwarber instead of extending Mitch Haniger, who has one more year of team control.  Uber-prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are long-term outfield answers, and Kyle Lewis is also in the mix.  You could shoehorn in one of the free agent bats in Seattle, but it’s not an ideal fit.  The Mariners would surrender only their fourth-highest pick for signing Castellanos, having already signed Robbie Ray.
  • Rangers:  The Rangers have already lost their second and third-highest draft picks in 2022 for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  They’d give up their fourth-rounder to sign Castellanos.  You could view that as a lessened draft pick penalty, or you might say that the team won’t be inclined to further decimate their draft.  Kole Calhoun is slated to spend time in right field for the Rangers, but both outfield corners and DH are possible areas of upgrade.  Unless the Rangers have mostly reached their spending or draft pick forfeiture limit, Castellanos and Schwarber make sense here.

If the National League gets the DH, Castellanos and Schwarber could fit position-wise into any of these teams, since none of them actually have an incumbent DH.

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract.  Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field.  But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick.  If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft.  In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
  • Reds: With the club in cost-cutting mode, they’re not expected to re-sign Castellanos or any other big free agent.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are set on the outfield corners with Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe.  DH is open, and there could be first base at-bats as well, but I think payroll restrictions would be the issue here unless one of the players drops his demands and/or they clear salary.
  • Cardinals: With Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Paul Goldschmidt, the clearest path to playing time would be at DH.  The Cardinals are not out of the question, but it’d be a surprise.
  • Braves: The Braves have Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall slated for the outfield corners.  It’s unclear what they plan to do with Ozuna following last year’s domestic violence incident.  I could see the Braves looking into Castellanos or Schwarber at three years or fewer, but probably only in a scenario where Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere.
  • Marlins: As a native of Hialeah, Florida, Castellanos has often been linked to the Marlins.  They already signed Avisail Garcia to play right field, but were said to still be in the market for outfielders.  On December 2nd, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote that the club viewed Castellanos as too expensive, but Schwarber “particularly appeals to them.”  Jackson and Mish reported that Schwarber’s asking price was in the three-year, $60MM range.
  • Mets: The Mets could potentially squeeze in one of these players at DH, though the rotation would seem to be a greater priority.  Castellanos is likely out, as signing him would require the Mets to forfeit the #14 pick in the draft.
  • Phillies: The Phillies could add a bat at left field or DH, though neither Castellanos or Schwarber would help with their center field void.  There’s a Dave Dombrowski-Castellanos connection from their time in Detroit together, and they’re known to have had contact prior to the lockout.  The club reportedly pursued Schwarber as well.
  • Nationals: The Nats could use Schwarber back in left field or at DH, but signing either player long-term wouldn’t fit as part of a reboot.  Still, asked if he wants Schwarber back, GM Mike Rizzo replied, “Why wouldn’t we?” back in November.  Starting pitching would seem to be a greater priority.
  • Rockies: The Rockies have yet to address their outfield this offseason, and I think they’re a viable suitor for both players.  Either one could be plugged in easily at an outfield corner or DH.
  • Dodgers: Castellanos or Schwarber would likely have to split time between left field and DH if they were to sign with the Dodgers.  It doesn’t seem like their type of signing, and the rotation is more pressing.
  • Padres: Left field and DH both work here, and the Padres are known to be looking for a bat.  The Padres are a viable suitor for either player, though they may need to clear payroll space.  The club reportedly showed strong interest in Castellanos prior to the lockout.
  • Giants: The Giants have Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. penciled in at the outfield corners, and I think Castellanos or Schwarber would be an easy roster fit.  The Giants can afford to sign any player they want, so it’s really just a matter of whether they like the value of these players, wherever their contracts land.  The Giants are not thought to be interested in $100MM contracts, though Castellanos won’t necessarily land there.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where will each player end up?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Free Agent Faceoff: Nick Castellanos Vs. Kyle Schwarber

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Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.

However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)

Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:

Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.

How about the last three years?

Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.

Just 2021:

Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.

However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.

While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

(poll link for app users)

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