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Kyle Schwarber

Phillies Notes: Herrera, Girardi, Schwarber

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Odubel Herrera is on his way to a rehab assignment with Lehigh Valley, which could mean a return to the active roster by next Friday when the club returns home, per Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). Without Herrera, 25-year-old Matt Vierling has been starting most games in center, but he’s struggled to the tune of a 14 wRC+ (though the sample size is a mere 24 plate appearances).

23-year-old Simon Muzziotti was called up, but Muzziotti has yet to garner regular playing time. Herrera figures to step in as the regular starter when he returns, while Vierling will shift mostly to a short-side platoon. It would not be surprising to see Muzziotti optioned back to Triple-A at that time so that he can get more regular playing time.  The Phils have largely been functioning with a four-man bench.

On the whole, the Phillies haven’t gotten off to the kind of start that they expected after a winter that included a couple big-name additions. It’s incredibly early, of course, but today’s loss dropped Philly to 4-6 in their first ten. After noticing some trends he doesn’t like, manager Joe Girardi has started tinkering with his lineups to find better balance, writes The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Namely, Kyle Schwarber has been bumped from the leadoff spot down to fifth. J.T. Realmuto will move from the two hole down to one. Girardi didn’t like how easy it was for teams to bring in a southpaw to face both Schwarber and Bryce Harper with only Realmuto in between, so Girardi will now use both Nick Castellanos and Rhys Hoskins to separate his lefties.

Odubel Herrera Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day

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Phillies center fielder Odúbel Herrera has a mild strain in his right oblique, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) this afternoon. He’s not expected to be ready for Opening Day, and Girardi suggested he could be sidelined for four-to-six weeks.

The Phils declined Herrera’s $11.5MM club option at the outset of the offseason, seemingly ending his seven-year run in the organization. Philadelphia circled back after the lockout, however, re-signing him on a $1.75MM pact. He entered camp as the favorite to reprise his role as the regular center fielder, but it seems the Phillies will need to look to alternatives in the early going.

Matt Vierling looks likely to get the first crack at the job, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com wrote yesterday the 25-year-old would be the probable primary center fielder so long as Herrera was on the shelf. Vierling had a nice 34-game run to begin his big league career late last year, but his .248/.331/.359 line in 236 plate appearances with Triple-A Lehigh Valley casts some doubt on his ability to shoulder an everyday workload. Former top ten draftees Adam Haseley and Mickey Moniak are alternatives on the 40-man roster, but Girardi said the Phils haven’t given any consideration to playing Moniak in center. Haseley can handle the position defensively, but he limped to a .224/.282/.295 performance with Lehigh Valley last season.

One option not under consideration is kicking Bryce Harper over from right field to center. The reigning NL MVP has some experience up the middle, but Girardi told reporters yesterday (via Zolecki) the organization didn’t want to jeopardize his health by handing him that kind of defensive burden. Harper will stick in right field, and Girardi said today he viewed Kyle Schwarber as his primary left fielder (via Jayson Stark of the Athletic). Fellow offseason signee Nick Castellanos will spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter, relieving Schwarber or Harper in the corner outfield as needed.

Phillies To Sign Kyle Schwarber

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March 20: The Phillies have announced the signing, placing Kent Emanuel on the 60-day IL as a corresponding move. Emanuel went on the IL in June of last year with left elbow while with the Astros and never returned. Claimed by the Phillies in November, it seems he’s not close to being recovered, as the Phils announced that he has a left elbow impingement.

March 16, 11:06am: It’s a four-year, $79MM contract, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

8:54am: Schwarber and the Phillies have agreed to a four-year deal with an annual value just shy of $20MM, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic.

8:31am: The Phillies have reached an agreement with Schwarber, pending a physical, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.

8:21am: The Phillies are “making progress” on a deal with free-agent slugger Kyle Schwarber, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Schwarber had recently been linked to the Blue Jays, but Shi Davidi and Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reported a few minutes ago that the team had become “pessimistic” about its chances of signing Schwarber, believing he was likely to sign elsewhere.

Kyle Schwarber | Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Schwarber, 29, has been one of the most sought-after free agents on the market in the days since MLB’s lockout was lifted — thanks in no small part to the implementation of the universal designated hitter. The longtime Cubs left fielder was non-tendered by Chicago after the 2020 season but parlayed a one-year deal with the Nationals (and a subsequent trade to the Red Sox) into a surefire multi-year deal in his second foray into free agency.

While Schwarber got out to a lukewarm start with the Nats in 2021, he erupted with one of the most prodigious hot streaks in big league history in mid-June. From June 12-29, a span of just 18 games, Schwarber launched a staggering 16 home runs through just 77 plate appearances. That astonishing run was cut short by a hamstring strain that sidelined him for more than a month, but the Red Sox had no qualms about trading for Schwarber even while he was on the injured list.

The Boston front office was surely glad it did so, as Schwarber returned with that same thunder the moment he was activated from the injured list. In 168 plate appearances with the Red Sox down the stretch, he turned in a huge .291/.435/.522 slash with seven homers and 10 doubles as the Red Sox surged to an AL East division title. Schwarber clocked three more home runs during the postseason, including a now-iconic grand slam that keyed a Game 3 ALCS romp over the Astros, but his bat fell quiet thereafter, as he finished out the series in an 0-for-15 funk while the ’Stros came back to topple the Sox.

Slow start to the year notwithstanding, Schwarber hit .266/.374/.554 with a whopping 32 home runs in just 471 plate appearances during the regular season. Add in his postseason efforts, and Schwarber carries a .260/.365/.542 with 35 home runs in 520 plate appearances since the Cubs non-tendered him.

Signing with the Phillies will reunite Schwarber with former Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long, who left the Nats’ staff at season’s end and signed on for a reunion with manager Joe Girardi, under whom he’d previously coached with the Yankees. Long’s presence certainly couldn’t have hurt the Phillies’ efforts to sign Schwarber, and it’s of some note that he’ll now continue working with the same hitting coach who helped coax that career-altering run from him during the ’21 season.

Schwarber’s role with the Phillies depends, to an extent, on the remainder of the team’s moves. While he’ll probably spend some time in left field and at designated hitter regardless, the division of his workload between those two spots hinges on whether the Phils make another clear upgrade in the outfield. At the moment, the Phillies don’t have a clear, everyday option in left field. Bryce Harper is, of course, locked into right field, but the rest of the outfield remains in a state of flux. The Phils brought Odubel Herrera back on a one-year, $1.75MM deal, and he’s joined by Adam Haseley, Mickey Moniak and Luke Williams as outfield options on the roster. Suffice it to say, at least one more newly acquired bat seems likely to join Schwarber in the Opening Day lineup by the time all is said and done.

The scope of any further additions seems likely to be driven by the luxury tax. Phillies owner John Middleton has staunchly resisted exceeding the tax line in the past two seasons, and today’s addition of Schwarber will push the Phils to roughly $216-217MM in luxury obligations, depending on the specifics (hat tip to Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). That’ll leave the Phils with somewhere in the vicinity of $13-14MM of breathing room to add at least one more outfielder and any other supplemental pieces the front office desires. Teams generally want to leave at least a few million dollars for in-season dealings, so it could be that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is dealing with a bit less than that projected $13-14MM.

Of course, additional trades or a simple change of heart with regard to Middleton’s luxury-tax aversion could change the calculus. Dombrowski made clear early in the offseason that shortstop Didi Gregorius would have to earn a starting job after a dismal showing in 2021, and he’s been listed as a speculative candidate to be moved in a change-of-scenery swap. The Phils could also try to dump the contract of outrighted utilityman Scott Kingery on another club as well, which would free up another $4MM in luxury space.

Barring any such trades or philosophical changes in ownership thinking, Dombrowski will be working with some notable financial limitations from here on out. That might mean a shift to the trade market or pursuing some smaller-scale free agents in hopes of securing a bargain. Time will tell just how the front office will proceed, but the addition of Schwarber to a lineup that ranked 15th in the Majors in home runs and 13th in runs scored will provide a notable jolt in production.

Blue Jays “Making Push” For Kyle Schwarber

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The Blue Jays are “making a big push” for Kyle Schwarber, tweets Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Marly Rivera of ESPN reported (on Twitter) this evening the Jays had interest in the lefty-hitting outfielder. Heyman adds that multiple teams remain in the mix but puts Toronto among the frontrunners for his services.

Toronto has been tied to a few marquee bats, as reports suggest they’re at least on the periphery of the Freddie Freeman market. Presumably, a Schwarber deal would take the Jays out of the running for the 2020 NL MVP, but he’d be a notable boon to their offense himself.

Schwarber, who turned 29 last week, is coming off a career-best season. Non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, he signed a $10MM deal with the Nationals. The Indiana University product hit .253/.340/.570 with 25 home runs across 303 plate appearances with Washington. That included an unreal 16-homer month of June that had made Schwarber the league’s hottest hitter before he suffered a severe hamstring strain in early July.

He spent the next six weeks on the injured list, during which time the Nationals fell out of contention. The Red Sox acquired Schwarber in a deadline deal despite his injury, with plans to have him rotate between first base and left field for the stretch run. He returned in mid-July and picked up right where he’d left off pre-injury, popping seven homers with a .291/.435/.522 line in 41 games with Boston. (The midseason trade also made him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer).

Between the two clubs, Schwarber posted a .266/.374/.554 line with 32 homers over 471 plate appearances. That production was 45 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. As he has throughout his career, Schwarber was a bit prone to strikeouts (27%), but he also drew walks at an elite 13.6% clip and posted top-of-the-scale power production. He ranked in the 90th percentile or better in terms of average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact percentage. It was the kind of middle-of-the-order output many expected from Schwarber when he was drafted fourth overall and ranked as one of the sport’s top offensive prospects.

The corner outfield market is robust, with Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Conforto all joining Schwarber in the ranks of the unsigned. Freeman and Anthony Rizzo are the top options at first base, leaving plenty of possibilities for clubs in search of an upgrade to the middle of the lineup.

In addition to their search for a big-ticket bat, the Jays have been looking for infield and bullpen help. Héctor Gómez of Z 101 reported over the weekend (on Twitter) that Toronto was looking into a reunion with versatile infielder Jonathan Villar. The switch-hitter played briefly with the Jays late in 2020 and struggled, but he bounced back with a decent .249/.322/.416 showing over 505 plate appearances for the Mets last season. The Jays could use some help at either of second or third base (with Cavan Biggio taking the other position), and Villar may be the top option remaining in free agency.

On the relief front, the Jays have checked in with closer Kenley Jansen, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The market for the longtime Dodger has been fairly quiet to this point, but he’s arguably the best remaining late-game option. The typically excellent Jansen tossed 69 innings with a 2.22 ERA last season, punching out an elite 30.9% of opponents.

Rockies Interested In Kyle Schwarber

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The Rockies had interest in Kyle Schwarber prior to the lockout, The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders writes.  With the Rockies known to be looking for outfield help and more hitting in general, it isn’t surprising that Schwarber is on the team’s target list, and Saunders figures the team will make a continued push for the slugger once the transactions freeze is lifted.

Despite the thin air of Coors Field, the Rockies’ lineup has been generally inconsistent over the last few years, and the team now faces the likely departure of Trevor Story in the free agent market.  A proven power bat like Schwarber would help greatly in replacing or even topping Story’s offensive production, while also solidifying at least one position within Colorado’s outfield.  Beyond longtime staple Charlie Blackmon, the Rox have several outfield options (Raimel Tapia, Connor Joe, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza, Ryan Vilade, and multi-position player Garrett Hampson) but none who present a clear everyday answer.

There’s also the designated hitter spot to consider, as the likely adoption of the universal DH means the Rockies will have another position to address.  Schwarber or Blackmon could be options here, and since Schwarber played some first base during his stint with the Red Sox last year, the Rockies could conceivably use Schwarber in the infield when regular first baseman C.J. Cron is given a day off or a DH day.

It isn’t exactly been a quiet offseason in Denver, as the Rockies extended Cron before free agency opened, re-signed Jhoulys Chacin, and the team also worked out extensions with righty Antonio Senzatela and catcher Elias Diaz.  However, the Rox and general manager Bill Schmidt haven’t done much in the way of adding any new talent to the roster, despite the organization’s oft-stated goal of contending in 2022.

That said, the Rockies have at least explored some notable additions, as they also had interest in Kris Bryant earlier this winter.  Saunders doesn’t feel the Rockies will meet Bryant’s asking price, and that same logic could also apply to a pair of other major outfielders still on the open market.  Signing either Michael Conforto or Nick Castellanos (who each rejected the qualifying offer) would cost the Rockies a draft pick, plus Castellanos was also reportedly looking for a long-term commitment of at least seven years for his next contract.

It should be noted that the Rockies would get an compensatory pick if/when Story signs elsewhere, so with some extra draft capital to play with, Schmidt didn’t outright reject the idea of signing a QO free agent.  In any case, the qualifying offer doesn’t apply to Schwarber, as his midseason trade to the Red Sox made him ineligible, so he can be signed without any draft pick penalty.

Between the lack of draft compensation, his reported aim for a relatively modest three-year deal in the $60MM range, and his track record at the plate, Schwarber could be considered the most attractive option within the top tier of remaining free agent outfielders (Bryant, Castellanos, Conforto, and Seiya Suzuki).  Of course, the Rockies aren’t alone in targeting Schwarber, as the Phillies, Marlins, Nationals, and Red Sox have all shown varied levels of interest in his services this winter, and any number of other teams are also speculative fits.  While Schwarber’s contractual ask may fall within Colorado’s comfort zone, then, the Rockies may still have to outbid other teams that can offer either more money, or a more clear-cut chance at contending next season.

Where Will Castellanos And Schwarber Land?

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As comparable bat-first players, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber were the topic of a Free Agent Faceoff post by Darragh McDonald last week.  Back on November 8th, MLBTR projected a five-year, $115MM contract for Castellanos (who also requires draft pick compensation) and a four-year, $70MM deal for Schwarber.

We debated whether such a financial gap makes sense – is Castellanos really that much better right now?  Ultimately we projected the difference to represent our guess at the perception of the two players: Castellanos has always been a regular in his career and signed a four-year, $64MM free agent deal already, while Schwarber was non-tendered after the 2020 season and was often shielded against lefties as a member of the Cubs.  We could be wrong about this supposed difference in perception; the post-lockout market will provide the answer.  On November 29th, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Castellanos sought a seven or eight-year deal.

Since switching to the outfield full-time in 2018, Castellanos has spent the vast majority of his defensive innings in right field.  Schwarber settled in as a left fielder as of 2017, though the Red Sox used him as a first baseman in 10 regular season games plus another nine in the postseason.  In a perfect world, both players might spend most of their time at designated hitter, which seems likely to become a permanent part of the National League in 2022.  One key difference between the two is that Castellanos bats right-handed, and Schwarber bats left-handed.  Let’s take a look at potential suitors.

  • White Sox: Eloy Jimenez is entrenched in left field and Jose Abreu will play first base in ’22, but the Sox could consider an upgrade at right field or designated hitter, where Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets currently project to see time.  Signing Castellanos would result in the club forfeiting their second-highest draft pick in ’22 and having their international signing pool reduced by $500K, assuming rules from the previous CBA carry over for the remainder of the offseason.  I don’t see the White Sox making this level of financial commitment with decent options already in-house.
  • Guardians:  The Guardians’ DH spot is occupied by Franmil Reyes, but they don’t have much going on at the outfield corners and figure to make some sort of addition.  The franchise has never guaranteed a player more than the $60MM they gave Carlos Santana five years ago.  It’s possible the price tag for Castellanos or Schwarber falls into that range.  The Guardians have perhaps $36MM accounted for across eight players earning more than the league minimum.  Aside from Jose Ramirez at $12MM, they might not have another player set to earn more than $5MM in 2022.  If the team runs a $50MM Opening Day payroll again, then Castellanos and Schwarber won’t be part of it, but the team reached $135MM as recently as 2018.  The Guardians also face a smaller draft pick penalty, as they’d surrender only their third-highest pick for Castellanos.
  • Tigers: Castellanos was a first round draft pick of the Tigers in 2010 and remained with the organization until his 2019 trade to the Cubs.  On the way out, he called Comerica Park “a joke,” so he’s probably not looking to return.  Aside from that, Castellanos would actually look really good at an outfield corner or the DH spot for the Tigers, and their draft pick compensation would be reduced since they already signed Eduardo Rodriguez.  But the club hasn’t given indications it’s looking to upgrade at those spots, so both Castellanos and Schwarber are probably out.
  • Royals: The Royals have never given a free agent more than $72MM, and that was their own guy in Alex Gordon.  Otherwise, I think adding one of these players at right field or DH would improve the club.
  • Twins: The Twins could upgrade on projected left fielder Trevor Larnach, but given the state of their starting rotation this doesn’t seem likely.
  • Red Sox: Though they traded for Schwarber during the summer, I’m not sure a big commitment to either player is necessary or fits Chaim Bloom’s m.o.  They’ve got good first base options in Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas.  J.D. Martinez has the DH spot at least for 2022.  Boston’s outfield is a bit unsettled with the swap of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., but they’ve still got Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Jarren Duran in the mix.  Hernandez could play second base and Schwarber or Castellanos could work here, if Bloom is OK with the commitment.  Bloom did maintain interest in Schwarber in his public comments, even after Martinez opted in.
  • Yankees:  The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at the outfield corners, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Luke Voit at first base.  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber doesn’t make much sense.  They still haven’t added a shortstop or starting pitching.
  • Rays: The Rays have never given a free agent more than $30MM in the Stuart Sternberg era.  They’re also flush with outfielders, even if they’re not at the proven offensive levels of Castellanos and Schwarber.  Perhaps if the bottom drops out for Schwarber’s market, the Rays trade away an outfielder or two, and they decide they’d like a big bat, this could make sense.  But it’s highly unlikely.
  • Blue Jays: Between right field and DH, the Jays could accommodate Castellanos or Schwarber.  A third baseman would seem a more obvious fit, but the Jays could pivot to one of these bats if needed or even add at both spots.
  • Astros: There’s simply not a spot for either player, with Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel already in tow.
  • Angels:  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber would involve pushing aside Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell, who have had limited success in the Majors thus far.  It’s not out of the question, but the Angels have more pressing needs at shortstop and in the rotation.  The Angels would have to give up their third-highest pick to sign Castellanos, having already forfeited their second rounder to sign Noah Syndergaard.
  • Mariners: It’d be odd to see the Mariners sign Castellanos or Schwarber instead of extending Mitch Haniger, who has one more year of team control.  Uber-prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are long-term outfield answers, and Kyle Lewis is also in the mix.  You could shoehorn in one of the free agent bats in Seattle, but it’s not an ideal fit.  The Mariners would surrender only their fourth-highest pick for signing Castellanos, having already signed Robbie Ray.
  • Rangers:  The Rangers have already lost their second and third-highest draft picks in 2022 for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  They’d give up their fourth-rounder to sign Castellanos.  You could view that as a lessened draft pick penalty, or you might say that the team won’t be inclined to further decimate their draft.  Kole Calhoun is slated to spend time in right field for the Rangers, but both outfield corners and DH are possible areas of upgrade.  Unless the Rangers have mostly reached their spending or draft pick forfeiture limit, Castellanos and Schwarber make sense here.

If the National League gets the DH, Castellanos and Schwarber could fit position-wise into any of these teams, since none of them actually have an incumbent DH.

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract.  Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field.  But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick.  If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft.  In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
  • Reds: With the club in cost-cutting mode, they’re not expected to re-sign Castellanos or any other big free agent.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are set on the outfield corners with Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe.  DH is open, and there could be first base at-bats as well, but I think payroll restrictions would be the issue here unless one of the players drops his demands and/or they clear salary.
  • Cardinals: With Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Paul Goldschmidt, the clearest path to playing time would be at DH.  The Cardinals are not out of the question, but it’d be a surprise.
  • Braves: The Braves have Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall slated for the outfield corners.  It’s unclear what they plan to do with Ozuna following last year’s domestic violence incident.  I could see the Braves looking into Castellanos or Schwarber at three years or fewer, but probably only in a scenario where Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere.
  • Marlins: As a native of Hialeah, Florida, Castellanos has often been linked to the Marlins.  They already signed Avisail Garcia to play right field, but were said to still be in the market for outfielders.  On December 2nd, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote that the club viewed Castellanos as too expensive, but Schwarber “particularly appeals to them.”  Jackson and Mish reported that Schwarber’s asking price was in the three-year, $60MM range.
  • Mets: The Mets could potentially squeeze in one of these players at DH, though the rotation would seem to be a greater priority.  Castellanos is likely out, as signing him would require the Mets to forfeit the #14 pick in the draft.
  • Phillies: The Phillies could add a bat at left field or DH, though neither Castellanos or Schwarber would help with their center field void.  There’s a Dave Dombrowski-Castellanos connection from their time in Detroit together, and they’re known to have had contact prior to the lockout.  The club reportedly pursued Schwarber as well.
  • Nationals: The Nats could use Schwarber back in left field or at DH, but signing either player long-term wouldn’t fit as part of a reboot.  Still, asked if he wants Schwarber back, GM Mike Rizzo replied, “Why wouldn’t we?” back in November.  Starting pitching would seem to be a greater priority.
  • Rockies: The Rockies have yet to address their outfield this offseason, and I think they’re a viable suitor for both players.  Either one could be plugged in easily at an outfield corner or DH.
  • Dodgers: Castellanos or Schwarber would likely have to split time between left field and DH if they were to sign with the Dodgers.  It doesn’t seem like their type of signing, and the rotation is more pressing.
  • Padres: Left field and DH both work here, and the Padres are known to be looking for a bat.  The Padres are a viable suitor for either player, though they may need to clear payroll space.  The club reportedly showed strong interest in Castellanos prior to the lockout.
  • Giants: The Giants have Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. penciled in at the outfield corners, and I think Castellanos or Schwarber would be an easy roster fit.  The Giants can afford to sign any player they want, so it’s really just a matter of whether they like the value of these players, wherever their contracts land.  The Giants are not thought to be interested in $100MM contracts, though Castellanos won’t necessarily land there.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where will each player end up?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Free Agent Faceoff: Nick Castellanos Vs. Kyle Schwarber

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Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.

However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)

Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:

Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.

How about the last three years?

Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.

Just 2021:

Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.

However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.

While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

(poll link for app users)

Phillies Notes: Schwarber, Knebel, Bullpen

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The Phillies, like most teams around the league, have plenty of work to do once the lockout is resolved and a new collective bargaining agreement is in place. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman writes the Phils “pursued [Kyle] Schwarber hard” prior to the lockout but weren’t able to finalize an agreement.

The 28-year-old Schwarber (29 in March) shook off a slow couple months to begin the 2021 season, ripping through MLB pitching at a Herculean clip throughout the summer and into the postseason. The longtime Cubs slugger inked a one-year deal with the Nats last winter, found himself traded to the Red Sox despite being on the injured list due to a hamstring injury, and finished the regular season with a combined .266/.374/.554 batting line and 32 home runs in just 471 plate appearances. Schwarber added three more homers in the playoffs, though he closed out October with an 0-for-15 skid following an epic grand slam in Game 3 of the ALCS.

When finished, the new collective bargaining agreement is expected to include a universal designated hitter, which would make it easier for the Phillies (or another team) to slide the defensively challenged Schwarber into the lineup. He could still see some reps in left field or even at first base, of course, but Schwarber would be viewed largely as a much-needed bat to pair with reigning MVP Bryce Harper in Philadelphia.

Schwarber ought to have plenty of other suitors, as he’s been linked to the Red Sox, Nationals, Marlins and others since the offseason began. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported not long ago that Schwarber is seeking a deal of at least three years and $20MM annually, though with enough competition the asking price could obviously further increase.

While supplementing the lineup with some help for Harper is a major goal, it wasn’t the top priority for Philadelphia this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made clear that solidifying the ninth inning was one of his top needs this winter, and the Phils look to have checked that box already.

Corey Knebel and the Phillies got their one-year, $10MM contract in just hours before the expiration of the 2016-21 CBA, and he’s expected to serve as the team’s closer in 2022, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Dombrowski noted that he did not promise that role to Knebel (link viaNBC Philly’s Jim Salisbury), but he strongly suggested as much, telling reporters that Knebel opted for a one-year deal in order “to show people that he’s a dominant closer again” now that he’s healthier.

Knebel, who had Tommy John surgery in 2019, saw his fastball velocity jump two miles per hour from the 94.6 mph he averaged in his abbreviated return to the mound in 2020. While his 29.7% strikeout rate didn’t match the ridiculous 40.2% mark he posted in Milwaukee from 2017-18, it was nevertheless a strong mark and a reminder that Knebel can be as  dominant as any reliever in the game when at his best.

Gelb suggests that a subsequent acquisition of Craig Kimbrel is unlikely to be in the cards, as the Phils aren’t likely to want to commit $26.5MM to a pair of relievers. Still, Knebel certainly won’t be the only addition to the ’pen. Said Dombrowski: “We’ve got a guy that we think will close games for us, and that’s a big start. Then we can kind of build the rest of the bullpen.”

The addition of Knebel and the Phillies’ one-year, $1.4MM deal with utilityman Johan Camargo pushed the team’s payroll to a bit more than $181MM — with a near-identical tally in terms of luxury obligations, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That’s well shy of last year’s $197MM end-of-season payroll and the even-larger $206.5MM in luxury obligations the team carried. Assuming the $210MM luxury-tax threshold is ultimately increased in a new CBA, the Phils could have quite a bit more luxury breathing room than the $29MM they already possess at the moment.

The Status Of The Corner Outfield Market

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Free agent outfielder Kyle Schwarber is said to be asking for a three-year, $60MM contract, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Marlins were exploring contracts with both Schwarber and Nick Castellanos before the lockout, ultimately coming to a four-year, $53MM agreement with Avisail Garcia instead. Miami also offered Starling Marte a four-year, $60MM offer before he signed with the Mets, notes Jackson.

The market for Schwarber remains robust, however, with many teams throughout the league in need of corner outfield help. The Red Sox – his most recent club – may be a less clean fit for Schwarber after re-acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr. and making the lineup that much more left-leaning, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey isn’t as sure that Schwarber’s being a left-handed hitter really represents a problem.

Beyond Schwarber and Castellanos, there remain a plethora of free agents capable of stationing in an outfield corner. Kris Bryant is the biggest name of the bunch, though his strongest suitors are likely to at least appreciate his glovework at the hot corner. World Series highlight generators Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, and Eddie Rosario remain available. Michael Conforto is the other big name still out there, though he has a qualifying offer attached, which may affect his market.

Brett Gardner, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Brian Goodwin, Alex Dickerson, and Corey Dickerson are some of the more attractive options out there with recent starting experience. In terms of specialists, Ender Inciarte, Roman Quinn, Kevin Pillar, and Jake Marisnick may fit the bill. There are also a fair number of multi-positional utility men out there, such as Niko Goodrum, Josh Harrison, Marwin Gonzalez, Danny Santana, and Brad Miller.

Marlins Notes: Schwarber, Marte, Castellanos, Pina, Gomes, Stallings

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The Marlins are known to be looking for more outfield help, with Kyle Schwarber already reported as one of the names on the team’s radar.  Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of The Miami Herald shed some more light on the Marlins’ pursuit, writing that Schwarber is looking for a three-year contract worth around $60MM.

Such a deal would top the Marlins’ four-year, $53MM pact with Avisail Garcia in dollars if not years, though it would also fall short of the four years and $70MM MLBTR projected Schwarber to land this winter.  Three years and $60MM is still a healthy sum, particularly for a team with Miami’s traditionally limited payrolls, yet the Marlins have already shown a greater willingness to spend in order to upgrade their offense.

The Phillies are another team that has been linked to Schwarber, while the Red Sox and Nationals (the slugger’s two most recent clubs) have also expressed some level of interest in a reunion.  Since several of the top free-agent bats have already landed new deals, Schwarber’s status as one of the top hitters available has only risen, so it’s fair to assume that other teams have already shown interest or will do so once the post-lockout dust settles.  It remains to be seen whether Schwarber’s market will develop to the point where the Marlins or any other club eventually puts a four-year offer on the table.

Of other outfielders linked to the Marlins, Nick Castellanos “is viewed as too expensive,” while Eddie Rosario is another consideration if Schwarber is also ultimately deemed to be beyond Miami’s price range.  Recent reports indicated that Castellanos is looking to score a seven- or eight-year contract, and even if that is an aim-high projection that could be lowered post-lockout, it would still seem like Castellanos might not be a fit for the Fish.  Additionally, signing Castellanos have a further cost in the form of draft pick compensation, since he rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer.

The Marlins could possibly avoid the free agent route entirely by landing an outfielder in a trade, as before the lockout, Jackson and Mish note that Miami was in “ongoing discussions with one American League team.”  The in-house fallback plan would be to have Brian Anderson play right field and the newly-acquired Joey Wendle take over as the everyday third baseman, but the Fish would prefer to have an established outfielder on the grass rather than Anderson, even if Anderson has looked at home as an outfielder.  Anderson had a 7.9 UZR/150 and +6 Defensive Runs Saved over 1223 innings as a right fielder in 2018-19, but is also coming off an injury-plagued 2021 season.

Miami’s offseason pursuits led them to consider such players as Starling Marte, Manny Pina, and Yan Gomes, with the first two receiving contract offers.  For Marte, the Marlins and two other teams made four-year offers worth roughly $60MM, and according to Jackson/Mish, Miami was prepared to spend a little more to bring Marte back to South Beach.  Marte’s camp wanted something around a $70MM payday, however, and ended up topping that number handily with the $78MM over four years that Marte received from the Mets.

Pina was another player the Marlins lost to a division rival, as while the Fish offered Pina $4MM on a one-year deal, the Braves doubled that offer and signed Pina for two years and $8MM.  However, the Marlins instead landed a longer-term target in Jacob Stallings, acquiring the backstop from the Pirates for a three-player trade package.  Interestingly, Jackson/Mish write that the Red Sox came very close to trading for Stallings, which would have indicated the Sox were ready to move on from Christian Vazquez either next winter (2022 is Vazquez’s last year under contract) or perhaps this offseason if a trade partner could have been found.

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