Seattle Times beat writer Ryan Divish cites a source close to the situation in saying that there is a “small chance but definitely a chance” that the Mariners deal Kyle Seager this offseason (link). Any time a club does anything short of unequivocally ruling out a player as “untouchable”, it means a trade is a possibility — not as if we would be inclined to believe that anyone on the Mariners roster is untouchable from the unsentimental hand of GM Jerry Dipoto, least of all a well-compensated, past-30 player like Seager. We heard this week that multiple clubs were in on the third sacker, although his $15MM club option for 2022 would convert to a player option if he’s traded. Seager could be open to amending that clause, perhaps in an effort to play for a contending team in 2020, but Seattle vet is still due $37MM over the next two seasons. Seager launched 23 home runs in Seattle’s difficult hitting environment last year while slashing .239/.321/.468 (110 wRC+), which is generally in line with career averages for the 32-year-old.
More notes from around the AL…
- Orioles GM Mike Elias said on Saturday that the club likes the collegiate pitching at the top of the 2020 first-year player draft, as reported by Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports (link). Of course, Baltimore has the second-overall pick in that draft, so the club has a realistic shot at landing their choice of arms among Emerson Hancock (Georgia), Asa Lacy (Texas A&M), Cole Wilcox (Georgia), or Reid Detmers (Louisville). Arizona State’s Spencer Torkelson is widely believed to be the top player available in next year’s draft, but the Tigers will have the first crack at his burly bat.
- Elias doesn’t sound overly stressed about the team’s remaining commitment to embattled slugger Chris Davis, saying in a fan Q&A–with Zachary Silver of MLB.com present–that the team will “work with [Davis] throughout the season“. While that doesn’t give an exact plan in regard to the team’s on-field usage of Davis moving forward, it certainly feels like a further reduction in playing time could be in the works. Davis got into just 105 games last season, logging a second consecutive season well below the Mendoza line (.179/.276/.326 overall). For what it’s worth, Elias also said that he doesn’t take Davis’ remaining three years “lightly” and that Davis remains an asset to the Orioles’ fan community.
- Sports Management Worldwide is, according to its website, a sports agency and private for-profit sports management training institution based in Portland, Oregon; it was also the recent site of instruction for new Royals manager Mike Matheny, as profiled in a piece by Joe Lemire of Sport Techie. Matheny was often criticized for his strategic management during his time as skipper for the Cardinals, so this summer saw him buff up on his analytics via an SMM course primarily catered toward individuals “trying to break into the sports industry or boost themselves beyond an entry-level job”. The courses taken this summer are said to have covered nearly all aspects of the use of data in baseball, including arbitration forecasts, defensive valuations, and in-game preparation. “How can I stay relevant? How can I see what’s next? How can I provide our players any kind of edge to what’s on the horizon?” Matheny said in reference to his motivation for taking SMM courses. “We’re in a new era in baseball. Players are understanding the data and the information more. They’re hungrier for it than ever before and more open to it than ever before.” While some will snark at Matheny’s educational endeavor, it seems laudable that the 49-year-old Matheny–a man of no small professional accomplishment–would take pains to ensure that he’s adapting to a world increasingly impacted by data and evolving technologies.
So a Kyle Seager trade is as likely as a Clint Frazier trade? Yet we have seen a half dozen threads about Frazier being traded.
Chris Davis “remains an asset to the Orioles fan community?” Are we sure he didn’t mean anti-fan community? I can’t imagine why any true Orioles fan that wants the team to win would consider Chris Davis an “asset.”
Davis is an asset in community relations is what Elias was saying. Davis took some of that salary he’s not earning and made the single largest individual donation in the history of University of Maryland Children’s Hospital. He and his wife have been active in the community for his entire time in Baltimore. Yes, it would be nice for Davis to start hitting again, but after 2 1/2 years I’m not holding my breath on that one. However, for a team that is expected to lose over 100 games again and is apparently planning to put a Rule 5 guy in the rotation, his lack of performance doesn’t hurt the team. In 2021, when there might be a reasonable expectation of trying to be a .500 team, he shouldn’t be on the roster. But for 2020? As long as his pride doesn’t override common sense and he does whatever the team tells him to do, it doesn’t materially affect the team one way or another.
All very well said.
Baltimore could hire a cadre of doctors and nurses and set up a free clinic in the ghetto for what they pay Davis to strike-out 3 times a game.
Everything you say is true, but there is one additional way his weak offense affects the team. Many fans will see Davis’s lack of hitting as just another reason to not come to the yard and wait a few years until he’s gone and the team improves enough to spend the bucks to attend games. Being charitable is great, but it doesn’t sell tickets or score runs which is what he’s being paid $$$$$ for.
How does it not? There needs to be room for Mountcastle,, Trey should be and been playing 1rst base. That a spot on the 26 man being wasted, where someone could be getting a look at..
Last i dont care even if he does start hitting i dont ever want to see him as a oriole again. He wasnt there for his team when they needed him because he didnt get his exemption for his aderral (cheater). He said he was working out with cooly wich found out wasnt true (liar). How is this a good influence on the team we want to build?
Baltimore is contractually obligated to pay Davis. Divesting funds in him to put towards any kind of charity is not an option.
I’d assume he’s speaking to the off field and charitable work Davis engages in. He’s very active in the Baltimore area. Try googling it
Only 2 doors is open for Davis. he either start hitting or he is released and he is half way through the release door as we speak.
They’re not facing any urgency to win games in the near future and no one else is taking on that contract, so there’s not really any point in releasing him unless he’s blocking a young guy.
Eventually, that could be an issue with Mountcastle, but I highly doubt he’ll break camp with the team anyway.
Mountcastle? What kinda name is that? Is that what passes for an actual prospect in Orioles Nation?
I would never have faith in anyone with a name like Mountcastle.
I’m not an Orioles fan. I have no connection to the team.
But he’s a top 100 prospect that happens to play first base, so maybe you can do the math.
I realize you’re a troll, but I’m going to take the bait. That is not just “what passes for an actual prospect in Orioles Nation”. He was a consensus Top 100 overall prospect in baseball by most places that know things, and then won the International League MVP award. So go back under your bridge, troll.
Orioles Nation? What is that a roadhouse in Dundalk?
What? Mountcastle is a cool name!! Or maybe I just think it is because I’m a Mariners fan and my head is spinning from all of Trader Jerry’s trades….
Don’t mind Willie. My man is just a Nats fan living in the lovely urban dump of Hyattsville.
And what about that guy named RIP Kin? Is he related to Lizzy Borden?
StandUpGuy is the worst poster on these forums
@StandUpGuy Please stop being such a horrible person…your commenting privileges have been suspended indefinitely while you get help. Thanks!
Only two doors open for Davis…they both lead to the outhouse…
I see what you did there, very clever
I think the problem is that he’s *ONLY* halfway through that door in spite of his… “performance” the last *THREE* seasons.
I mean… that line… is just… How is he in baseball still? Doesn’t matter if you’re a traditional or advanced stats person. He’s been one of the worst hitters in the game… while playing 1B.
I think Longoria might be available especially with the Cozart pick up.
Nats, braves, minn. and texas all desperate for a good 3B. With just Donaldson available, trade talk goes to K. seager but no one suggests Longoria ?
Costs the same as seager,$52m over 3 years, power numbers similar and the SFG looking to shed salary and get younger. What am I missing?
I don’t think Cozart will ever suit up for the Giants.
I do think that Longoria could be trad
This year Kyle Seager posted 2.9 fWAR in 106 games while Evan Longoria, who is two years older, posted 2.0 fWAR in 129 games.
Steamer projects 202 WAR of 2.4 in 145 games for Seager and 1.6 in 130 games for Longoria.
fangraphs.com/players/kyle-seager/9785/stats?posit…
fangraphs.com/players/evan-longoria/9368/stats?pos…
Baseball Trade Values assigns a negative value of $21.8 million for Seager and a negative value of $33.4 million for Longoria:
baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
Seager and Longoria are close enough in value to satisfy a team in need of a 3B answer. Longo power being suppressed by ballpark.
Lingo is also trending down much harder
People said cano couldn’t be traded. Kemp was untradeable. Stanton couldn’t be traded… I guess Seagar is untradeable too.
Seager makes beans compared to the guys you named
Yes, but even after his resurgence in the second half last season, he also doesn’t perform as well as 2/3 of the players mentioned (I’ll happily concede Seager ca 2019 > Kemp ca… any year after 2012.
That and I don’t think anyone reasonable said Cano completely couldn’t be traded. He was going to be difficult to trade because of who could even think of taking the commitment, but he had continued to be an elite 2B. The same was true about Stanton except the only real holdup there was getting not only someone willing and able to pay for his production, but get his approval.
I proposed a package deal , Shark and Longoria for a couple of teams including Texas and my Phillies.
According to Baseball Trade Values, Evan Longoria and Jeff Samardzija have a combined negative value of $47 million:
baseballtradevalues.com/teams/488/
What exactly is their formula?They have Gerrit Cole at a -22.4. I get that most teams can’t take on his salary but it seems to me there’s no way to account for money that can be eaten, so I wouldn’t take these trade values as gospel. If SF eats a whole bunch of salary, I don’t see why Shark can’t be moved.
@heiniemanush;
What you’re missing is that Longoria is a bad contract at 1 year, $4m.
$52m over 3 years is beyond absurd.
Not sure that anyone in MLB would take him at that salary or have interest in playing him if they got him on waivers after the Giants paid down his contract. Better to give a youngster those innings at 3B.
Rumor has it Longo would be great on the Royals. Something about how great his veteran leadership would be with grand poobah Ned Yost gone.
I’m still baffled that Davis has fallen off so quick. Is it a mental thing? He got his money and just quit trying? Is it the yips trying to live up to the contract? I don’t get it
Mental. And he can’t take greenies to concentrate. It’s taken a toll on his confidence.
The story I hear is Davis was on Adderall thru MLB’s Theraputic Use Exemption. It has to be re-newed each year thru paperwork and the papers weren’t filed for some reason I don’t know. That’s how he got popped. Subsequent re-filings have been rejected.
Well MLB shouldn’t reject if he had it before. He obviously needs better concentration…..
he has been getting the exemptions it was just the one year he didnt file he didnt have it
Possibly a lot of factors. Mental for a while now but I have another theory: I think teams, armed with reams of newly acquired data, learned how to pitch (and, by way of the shift, field) him. His swing always had holes but the league was now able to totally exploit those holes. The effect was immediate and devastating. The Orioles, who were arguably the least analytically oriented club at the time, were woefully slow to react and this effect was substantially prolonged. Davis also lost faith, understandably, in his former coaches and staff and their ability to help him.
Here’s another thought: The new front office is working hard via technology to rectify this. (His numbers are still dreadful but his bat path to the ball showed signs last year of being much more efficient.) Whether it will work is obviously questionable but advertising said work to the public helps no one at this point.
he quit trying he got his money
Fallen off so quick? He has had two above average seasons – most have been average to below average – which is his normal MLB caliber. To be average to below average you have minimal amazing years and minimal horrid years.
Dylan A, Chase has an inflated sense of the media’s influence on player transactions.
The reality is that MLB Trade Rumors and other media generate fan interest but have little impact in MLB front offices.
The story he’s writing about was leaked to the Seattle Times, not MLBTR.
That opening sounds like he has a bigger ego than a uptight movie critic
How many more years are we going to hear about the false “difficult hitting environment” in Seattle. They adjusted everything several years back and it plays pretty neutral if you look at the numbers.
“Davis remains an asset to the Orioles’ fan community”
lol ok
See above comments…..
Divish doesn’t seem to like the Mariners much. Generally he is pretty accurate though but he is way off on this one. If Jerry has a chance to get a good return for KS in a season where they will not compete he will make a trade in the blink of an eye
You are WAY off-base ragging on Divish. He is as far away as possible from the tool you suggest he is.
What he faces are years of drudgery, covering a franchise led by a GM who is not only in over his head, but a cautionary tale of blending delusion and ADHD.
You owe Divish an apology.
Been watching Dipoto for years.
To date his greatest accomplishment has been to off the players he gave outrageous contracts to starting at the end of he 2018 season and through the 2019 trading deadline. He was a whirling dervish as he traded guys….then traded the guys he acquired….then traded the guys he acquired for the guys he acquired. Cutting the long term-obligations with each trade. In over 60 years of watching, I can’t remember that being done before. Am sure he was the talk of FO people at bars around America with what he pulled off in less than one year.
His 2nd greatest accomplishment has been in keeping a job with a MLB franchise.
What “outrageous contracts” did general manager Jerry Dipoto negotiate for the Seattle Mariners?
Clueless post. Dipoto inherited the mess of the organization and all those large deals you mention.
@kaehlaone! You found a Vandals’ post to be clueless too? Vandals seems to be the most pompous and most mis-informed posted on MLBTR IMO…
If you are going to rag on Dipoto, you can only complain about trades. Dude never digs in deep for FAs, except maybe Kikuchi who was probably ownership driven for the most part.
Jerry D is doing a fine job with the farm and not signing bad FA deals. Trades have been hit and miss, but overall I’m happy with the direction of the M’s as they currently stand.
Your last point is kind of my question re Jerry D: what in the world is his “direction”? I just don’t see it. That said I’m not an expert on him or the M’s (though I’ve followed him via the Wheelhouse podcast and later his own over the years.)
His moves were clear rebuild moves. He traded away a metric ton of salary last year for spects. Dipoto moved the system up into the top half of the league. He pivoted before all his assets lost their trade value and got talent back. The people choosing to hate on Dipoto are pretty ignorant.
Dipoto inherited junk. Tried to improve upon and get said junk into the postseason. He failed; but he didn’t fail for a half decade and lose all his talent for nothing.
Kelenic, Rodriguez, Sheffield, Dunn, Gilbert, and Evan White is a good start. The M’s have some prospects. It’s not the empty system he inherited.
While Dipo clearly inherited a mess from Uncle Fester and M’s farm system was improving during his tenure, M’s are still barely just staying afloat.
Kelenic and Gilbert are the only real top talents who had went past AA, everyone else are expected to be a good or okay player at best.
Julio is still young and he has a lot to prove in A+ before being inked as a center piece for M’s.
J.P. Crawford and Shed Long are facing their make or break year, and neither of them is that great with their gloves as a MIF.
Justus Sheffield is a big question mark: he has yet to find his change up to survive in major, and sinkball hurlers are not as valuable as they were in early 10’s, given now the balls are juiced and everyone swings in upper-cut.
Evan White was a first baseman best known for his defense— oh who am I kidding to, can he even hit? And already he received a major league contract. Let’s just hope the juiced ball in major can do some magic for him.
Dipo did a good job on dumping salary and acquiring some prospect for M’s at the same time, however, prospect won’t mean sh!t if they cannot turn into good major players. Uncle Fester used to fill M’s farm system with top level prospect, but almost none of them thrives in major while they are with the M’s except Paxton (Seager was not considered a prospect back then).
Smoak was a bust until the Jays fixed him.
Ackley was a total bust.
Saunders saved himself but JZ doesn’t like him so he traded him to Jays– you know what happens next.
Brad Miller was notorious with his throw therefor is not qualified as a SS.
Nick Franklin was once regarded as the best 2B in M’s farm but never develop into anything.
Mike Zunino was rushed because JZ’s job was at stake and swung at everything he saw in the major.
Taijuan Walker never overcomes the problem with his health and frame.
Danny Hultzen got his career ruined before it even starts with a torn labrum.
The list can go on and on but I think you get it.
How good is Jerry Dipoto as a GM has yet to be seen; depends on how many of his prospects will help the team in future.
That’s Mariner’s Baseball: Pain and suffering.
Interesting take. I like to say his greatest accomplishment was in the exact point in time last year to sell off not just one player for prospects, but several:
Cano — tanked in 2019
Diaz — tanked (though, given the fickle nature that relieving is, he’s much more likely to rebound than Robbie)
Segura — declined significantly; he was only marginally better than Crawford when adjusted for games played
Zunino — struggling to get back into baseball
Bruce — not nearly as good after being traded to the Phillies
Leake — even more meh with even more shakey peripheral stats post-trade
Out of the worth-talking-about lot, only Paxton and Encarnacion could said to have brought any kind of actually positive value to their new teams (relative to the cheaper kid he was traded for in the case of Segura).
That’s one heck of a coup. The saying goes that it’s better to trade a year early than a year late. Dipoto got nearly a half-dozen perfectly on time.
something tells me Seager or Longoria will be a Brave next year after Donaldson signs somewhere else.
I could really see Seager being the Nats backup if Donaldson signs somewhere else.
Scrub-a-dub-dub steelerbravefan wants the Braves to play in the sh!ii t tub.
Would like to see how Seager does in that Braves lineup, if Ms are going to trade him.
Dear Royal fans; Matheny likens himself a chess fan and as a master he’s always thinking five moves ahead in baseball…. His results as a Cardinal manager would suggest in a chess match he would be checkmated after the first pawn move… Cardinal fans can’t tell you how many times due to a 5th inning double switch a relief pitcher came up to bat with a man on second and one out resulting in a DP… Or another favorite; having no bench players left in the 9th to pinch hit because he used them all earlier in the game for just one at-bat so a pitcher hits… Matheny can take all the analytics classes he wants… He’s dumb as a rock..
Ned Yost wasn’t an exciting hire either but he will be forever remembered as one of the most successful Royals managers. I applaud the new coach for recognizing a trait he needed to improve upon, and has worked to improve. Same with spending a year learning player development. I suspect he’ll be a decent coach in KC; hopefully more.
The day I listen to a Cards fan about anything, well, that will never happen
Cardinal fans can’t tell you how many times due to a 5th inning double switch a relief pitcher came up to bat with a man on second and one out resulting in a DP
_____
Is that supposed to be a slight against “Cardinal fans”? Because…
1. Something like that would be easy to parse it in the data at retrosheet in order to give you an exact number of times and dates it has happened
2. Intuitively going to be an incredibly low number given the very, very unique set of circumstances required to even set it up even in the 6.5 years time he was managing there. As such, each hypothetical instance it’s occurred should be highly salient and thus easy to count.