Kyle Seager

The Mariners’ playoff push came up a couple games short, as the club dropped their final series of the year against the Angels to fall out of the Wild Card race. While some underlying indicators suggest the club was fortunate to finish 90-72 — they were outscored by 51 runs despite finishing eighteen games over .500 — it’s clear the focus is on contention moving forward. A few of Seattle’s top young talents have already gotten their feet wet in the big leagues, and more (including Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock) aren’t far behind.

On top of that young base, the M’s have a wide open payroll outlook. In the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, the Mariners enter the upcoming offseason with just $19.2MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for 2022. Assuming the club declines a four-year, $66MM package deal of team options on Yusei Kikuchi, the southpaw would have the right to exercise a $13MM player option. Even if Kikuchi returns on his option, that’d leave the Mariners with just north of $32MM in guaranteed commitments entering the winter.

Their first tough offseason call will be whether to bring franchise cornerstone Kyle Seager back into the fold. The club holds a $20MM option on Seager’s services for 2022. That comes with a $2MM buyout, meaning it’ll be a net $18MM call for the front office. That raises the possibility that yesterday’s game was Seager’s final as a Mariner, and manager Scott Servais removed him from the game during the top of the ninth inning (once the Red Sox won and had officially eliminated Seattle from playoff contention) to give fans at T-Mobile Park an opportunity to show their appreciation for Seager’s time in the organization.

For his part, Seager told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times he hasn’t heard from the front office about the status of his option. In something of an eyebrow-raising comment, the veteran third baseman added he hasn’t spoken with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto “in years, probably four years. We don’t communicate at all. Not even passing by in the hall. If he spoke to my agent or anything like that, I haven’t heard anything.”

“It’s a weird spot to be in,” Seager elaborated (via Divish). “You kind of want to know, but unfortunately it’s out of our control. He’s not obligated or anything to tell me one way or the other. You have to prepare like you’re not going to be here. The writing’s been on the wall for a while. There’s nobody left from when I first got here. That’s not uncommon with a regime change. You bring in your own guys. You do your own thing.”

Reading between the lines, Seager’s comments would seem to suggest he’s anticipating the team buying his option out. Given Seager’s respected status in the organization and among the fan base, it’s something of a surprise to hear his contact with Dipoto is so infrequent. Still, Dipoto and his staff need not have a strong personal connection with Seager to judge picking up his option a worthy investment.

Seager has consistently been an above-average player on both sides of the ball throughout his career. He had an atypical 2021 season, posting a career-worst .212 batting average and his second-lowest on-base percentage (.285). But he also popped 35 home runs, a personal-best tally that tied him for seventeenth in MLB. Seager’s overall .212/.285/.438 line checked in at almost exactly league average by measure of wRC+, after accounting for Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark.

It was a similarly confounding year for Seager on the defensive side of the ball. Advanced metrics were split on his work, with Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as a bit above-average, while Defensive Runs Saved thought he was a little below par. He’s generally well-regarded with the glove and has posted strong defensive marks in the past, so it’d probably be fair to project Seager as an average or slightly above-average player at the hot corner in 2022.

A player who’s a tick above-average at all facets of the game certainly carries value, even if many teams wouldn’t jump to pay $18MM for that level of production. Seager, however, means a lot to the fanbase (as yesterday’s on-field celebration showed) and to many in that clubhouse. Shortstop J.P. Crawford teared up following yesterday’s game when speaking about Seager’s influence on him (video via Jomboy Media). Crawford’s only one player, of course, but it seems likely others in the clubhouse feel similarly connected to Seager, the franchise’s longest-tenured active player.

For a franchise with as clean a payroll outlook as the Mariners’, a case can be made for exercising Seager’s option, even if it seems a bit pricey on first glance. The club does have Abraham Toro as a potential in-house replacement at the hot corner, though. Toro came up through the Astros’ system as a third base prospect; the M’s moved him primarily to second base after acquiring him at the trade deadline, but the front office could slide Toro back to his natural position were they to buy Seager out. Doing so would require pursuing an upgrade at second base during a year in which the free agent options at the position are fairly weak, but Dipoto has already hinted at the possibility of an active offseason.

4:10 pm: Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that the value of Seager’s option has actually escalated all the way to the maximum $20MM figure. According to Divish, Seager needs 37 more plate appearances through the end of the regular season to push the value of the buyout from $1.5MM to $2MM. With 22 games remaining on the schedule, Seattle’s regular third baseman shouldn’t have much difficulty reaching that mark.

9:25 am: Kyle Seager has been a Mariner since the club selected him with the 82nd overall draft pick back in 2009, but the Mariners will soon face a decision on the former All-Star who’s held down the hot corner at T-Mobile Park/Safeco Field for the past decade.

Seager is in the final guaranteed season of a seven-year, $100MM contract extension signed back in December 2014, but that contract holds a club option for the 2022 season. While the option was originally valued at $15MM, Seager’s extension included escalators that could boost the option value up to $20MM and trigger a buyout of as much as $3MM (as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported at the time of the deal). Seager hasn’t reached the full weight of those escalators, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic now reports that he’s boosted that option value up to $19MM and hit enough of the escalators to tack on a buyout in the $1.5MM to $2MM range.

Triggering the buyout means that regardless of the Mariners’ decision, Seager will walk away from the deal with at least $101.5MM to $102MM in guaranteed money. For the Mariners, what was previously a net $15MM decision is now a net decision in the $17MM to $17.5MM range.

Seager, 34 in November, has become an increasingly difficult player to value. His .213 batting average and .290 on-base percentage are both obvious eyesores, but he’s also slugging .455 and has clubbed a career-high 34 home runs in 2021 with a few weeks of games yet to play. His 23.7 percent strikeout rate is a career-high, but the league-average strikeout rate has soared in recent years; he’s only one percent north of the 22.7 average for non-pitchers.

Seager has also had at least some degree of poor fortune on balls in play, although perhaps not as much as his career-low .218 BABIP would suggest upon first glance. Seager’s career .272 average on balls in play is already lower than that of the league average (about .300), so we can’t simply assume there will be positive regression all the way up to the league norm.

This version of Seager is naturally going to be prone to a low BABIP due to his pull-happy (45.5 percent) and thus shift-prone approach, a huge 51.6 percent fly-ball rate (including a 13.6 percent infield-fly rate) and his decreasing speed. Statcast pegs Seager’s “expected” batting average at .225, which would be enough to narrowly push his OBP into the .300s assuming the rest of his profile remained the same. Seager, like so many other players in the league, has taken some steps toward a three-true-outcomes style at plate — albeit not to the same dramatic extent as three-true-outcome kings like Joey Gallo or Miguel Sano.

On the defensive side of things, Seager remains a solid option at third base. Both Ultimate Zone Rating (4.0) and Outs Above Average (5) grade him as an above-average defender. Defensive Runs Saved has him at minus-4 this season, but Seager has a long track record of quality DRS marks. His 13 errors have him on pace to finish right around his full-season totals from 2017-19. He’s not Matt Chapman or Nolan Arenado at third base, but most clubs would likely consider him anywhere from serviceable to above-average, which has value in its own right.

The Mariners, at least to some extent, will also have to take into account Seager’s status as a foundational piece for the past decade. Back in February, now-former Mariners president Kevin Mather made a buyout of Seager’s option sound like a fait accompli, indicating that the 2021 campaign would likely be his last as a Mariner. Mather, of course, is no longer with the club and Seager has gone on to belt a career-best 34 dingers — albeit with concerning declines in OBP and average, as previously highlighted. FanGraphs values Seager at 2.6 wins above replacement, putting him on pace to finish as a 2.9-WAR or better player for the ninth time in his past 10 full seasons (i.e., excluding 2020).

The Mariners could simply buy Seager out and slide Abraham Toro (and, on occasion, Ty France) over to third base in 2022. However, both players are capable of playing other positions. Toro has been lined up primarily at second base since being acquired from Houston, and France is capable at both second and first (with more than enough bat to simply DH, as well).

Ultimately, a net price in the $17MM range seems steep for Seager, but the Mariners also only have $19MM in guaranteed salary on the books next season, with a fairly light arbitration class to boot. Combine that with Seager’s career-best power output, solid glovework and legacy status in Seattle — and it’s enough to at least make this a closer decision for the front office than most would expect.