At the beginning of each offseason, MLBTR publishes a list of the top 50 free agents on the board by projected earning power. It has only been a month and a half since this winter’s top 50 hit the site, but little did we know then that this offseason would move at such a rapid pace. We’ve already seen more than half of the members of this year’s list (27 players), including four of the top five, either sign new contracts or accept qualifying offers. With that said, let’s check in on how MLBTR has fared with its predictions thus far…
1. Gerrit Cole, SP – Predicted: Eight years, $256MM. Signed: Nine years, $324MM.
2. Anthony Rendon, 3B – Predicted: Seven years, $235MM. Signed: Seven years, $245MM.
3. Stephen Strasburg, SP – Predicted: Six years, $180MM. Signed: Seven years, $245MM.
4. Zack Wheeler, SP – Predicted: Five years, $100MM. Signed: Five years, $118MM.
6. Madison Bumgarner, SP – Predicted: Four years, $72MM. Signed: Five years, $85MM.
7. Yasmani Grandal, C – Predicted: Four years, $68MM. Signed: Four years, $73MM.
10. Jake Odorizzi, SP – Predicted: Three years, $51MM. Accepted $17.8MM qualifying offer.
12. Didi Gregorius, SS – Predicted: Three years, $42MM. Signed: One year, $14MM.
13. Will Smith, RP – Predicted: Three years, $42MM. Signed: Three years, $40MM.
15. Cole Hamels, SP – Predicted: Two years, $30MM. Signed: One year, $18MM.
16. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH – Predicted: Two years, $28MM. Accepted $17.8MM qualifying offer and then signed for three years, $50MM.
17. Michael Pineda, SP – Predicted: Two years, $22MM. Signed: Two years, $20MM.
18. Mike Moustakas, INF – Predicted: Two years, $20MM. Signed: Four years, $64MM.
19. Kyle Gibson, SP – Predicted: Two years, $18MM. Signed: Three years, $30MM.
20. Tanner Roark, SP – Predicted: Two years, $18MM. Signed: Two years, $24MM.
21. Julio Teheran, SP – Predicted: Two years, $18MM. Signed: One year, $9MM.
23. Drew Pomeranz, RP – Predicted: Two years, $16MM. Signed: Four years, $34MM.
24. Wade Miley, SP – Predicted: Two years, $16MM. Signed: Two years, $15MM.
26. Travis d’Arnaud, C – Predicted: Two years, $14MM. Signed: Two years, $16MM.
27. Chris Martin, RP – Predicted: Two years, $14MM. Signed: Two years, $14MM.
29. Avisail Garcia, OF – Predicted: Two years, $12MM. Signed: Two years, $20MM.
30. Howie Kendrick, INF – Predicted: Two years, $12MM. Signed: One year, $6.25MM.
31. Rick Porcello, SP – Predicted: One year, $11MM. Signed: One year, $10MM.
32. Brett Gardner, OF – Predicted: One year, $10MM. Signed: One year, $12.5MM.
40. Adam Wainwright, SP – Predicted: One year, $8MM. Signed: One year, $5MM.
42. Josh Lindblom, SP – Predicted: Two years, $8MM. Signed: Three years, $9.125MM.
47. Michael Wacha, SP – Predicted: One year, $6MM. Signed: One year, $3MM.
Total – Predicted: $1,327,000,000. Signed: $1,521,675,000.
A few things stand out here. First of all, special thanks to Braves reliever Chris Martin for making us look good by signing for the exact amount we said he’d receive. In the aggregate, though, we were obviously too conservative with this year’s estimates. However, in our defense, did anyone foresee such a spending bonanza this offseason?
When MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote this same piece a year ago, only one top five free agent and just 16 out of 50 had signed or agreed to take the qualifying offer. Furthermore, at that point, MLBTR’s projections were actually $20MM above the amount of money that had been handed out. Historic contracts worth $300MM or more were later given to outfielder Bryce Harper (Phillies) and infielder Manny Machado (Padres), the two highest-rated free agents available, but the MLBPA was nonetheless frustrated by the game’s second straight glacial offseason.
As a result of the union’s discontentment, speculation grew in regards to a potential work stoppage when the current collective bargaining agreement expires in December 2021. Perhaps that will still happen, but executive director Tony Clark & Co. have to be much more pleased with how this offseason has unfolded in comparison to the previous couple. Regardless, judging by the billions that teams have awarded to free agents in under two months, it’s clear there is still plenty of money to go around in Major League Baseball.
That’s why you guys are the experts! Congrats to the staff for (mostly) accurate predictions
After all these big contracts I bet Jake is regretting accepting the qualifying offer….his agent misread the market
I think if anything maybe they did read it right. Who is going to be a free agent pitcher next season better than him? Anybody better? Everyone this year is signing multi year. I believe him and Cole Hamels would be the best ranked to be free agents next season. There will be a bigger requirement for them next season compared to this year. Alot of big fishy makes the water murky. They punted this season for the big one next season.
Trevor Bour
So that means only 2 players should command more money next year. Depending also on what happens with Keuchel and Ryu and what kind of deals they sign. He is far more valuable next season than trying to compete with Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler and others. Alot shorter list = higher demand.
Unless he goes back to bad ODO or the owners next year have buyers remorse from this year and scares everyone off from big contracts. The 17 million his agent sold him short bottom line.
You’re probably correct but there sure is a feeding frenzy in the player pool. It is murky….a kind of the color of money hue to it.
There are also more teams willing to participate in significant free agent signings this year than the past two years. Bodes well for this season as well given more teams intend to contend than the past two.
Pomeranz for 4 years? 2 ok, will he be healthy for 4?
He won’t be healthy for 2, so no
He’ll be lucky to stay healthy for 4 months!
Don’t you predict team’s FAs mite sign with also?
mite?
Core4……The do predict teams….multiple teams. For instance they predicted Cole to the Angels but also stipulated that “They could be joined by the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, White Sox, Twins, Phillies, Rangers, Cubs, and more….” For Rendon they said the Nats but also “The Rangers, Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, and Angels could also be suitors.”.
mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predicti…
Collusion got expensive this offseason.
Nice work guys. Your predictions are frequently referenced on blogs and major sites. You all have worked hard for years and your credibility is very well deserved. Merry Christmas to Tim and each of you!
So everyone overpaid except the Angels. Love it.
You do realize 245 is more than 235
Yeah, and they still won’t make the postseason! Congrats!
All pretty good to great predictions within the ballpark … except Moustakas!
In fairness to you guys, if you adjust for Strasburgs deferred money, it brings the value down to about $200 mil, and that leaves Cole as the only big discrepancy here.
Job really well done.
That was a respectable guess. The one that was way off was Cole. But who would have guessed that?
Well they were really off on Stras and that’s why Cole got so much more too.
1.5 billion dollars. Unreal …
Why is that unreal ????
Have you seen what movies gross at the box office & then in on demand, DVD and premium cable rights ??? How much do actors make off those movies and how many times are you expected to watch them once maybe twice if the movie was actually good ???
With baseball at least you actually watch them play 6 months not including ST or Postseason.
How bout TV shows because that is actually the most comparable thing to basketball/baseball. Actors get how much per episode to entertain you for what 1 hour or in sometimes 1/2 an hour a week with reruns or syndication still paying them.
Baseball you get 13 outta 14 days straight of new material for 6-7 months out of the year.
People need to stop comparing their loser lives to that of athletes. Athletes are not common working men/women with common working men/women problems.
They are entertainers. Your entertainment dollars go to paying them. You live vicariously through them.
They earn every dollar they make because it’s what people are willing to spend it.
I have no problem with how much athletes make I have a problem with how much CEO’s make. I have a problem with how much politicians make when our tax payer money pays them but yet they cut school teachers, firemen/women and police officers. You never see a city say oh we are overbudget let’s cut a councilman but yet they will cut the police force.
Aim your money comments somewhere else and not on this forum there is hundreds of millions of people in this country that need a release from reality and our athletes provide us that release not the owners not the politicians not the actors and actresses that make the same if not more money for half or sometimes less than half the content.
Wake up and realize whatever you do for a living is not the same as entertaining millions and millions of people so therefore you are not compensated the same.
You have valid points. However, in the entertainment business, there is no business without the fan/consumer, so their opinions do matter. It is ironic to me how many entertainers/athletes have a connection with their fans, but don’t realize that it is actually them and not the owners of the franchise that pay their salary. So when they say they have a grievance over compensation, they are really upset that the fans aren’t kicking in enough of their hard earned dollars to enhance their opulent life styles. Does that really make sense to you. If I were in their position my conscience would have a major problem with thinking like that. Capitalism with only greed and without integrity becomes a poisoned system and is also anti-Christian..
As far as actors, 95% of what is produced is GARBAGE and is less than worthless. The good stuff is certainly worth whatever they ,make from it,
God bless you and Merry Christmas!
Half of it was negotiated by Boras, that’s what is unreal!!
The market is dependent on lots of factors. People often over read a one or two year exception as a new trend. It’s unique every year.
Excellent job, as always, considering the market shifted a bit.
I’m trying to remember your prediction on the Refsnyder signing. Was it clean underwear once a week or twice?
You guys were really close on most. A couple were off, but not too shaby.
Dang, yankees had to overpay for the best player Cole… and their own player Gardner. So much for players going to the yankees on a discount. I guess the nostalgia has worn off.
Nostalgia was the reason Cole wanted the Yankees, as he said numerous times. He spoke to their history, and his history living the team. Just because of that doesn’t mean he will work for less money because that would be, well, not very smart. He got the best of both worlds by his own admission, Melchez
And Gardner turned down offers for more years so he could return to the Yankees by his own admission.
Whole lotta nostalgia going on there, buddy.
Actions speak louder than words… he signed for over 300 mil not nostalgia but cool story brah.
And who offered more for Gardner? Sounds like you be a homer.
How is it an overpay ???
I think the Moose deal surprised a lot of us, especially after the value of his two previous one year deals. Good for him!
IMO, there were two other surprising deals. The first is Pomeranz. He parlayed a great, two month stretch (after a horrid start to the season) into a huge, 4 year deal. This deal could end up being the end for Preller in SD.
The second surprising one (to me at least) was Cole getting 9 Years @ $36M/yr. if the Yankees are lucky, they get 3 premium seasons out of him and 3 above average / average seasons out of him. After that, this deal is going to a huge anchor on their payroll. Hats off to them for taking such a huge risk!
Well done!
You guys are amazing at this
Yeah, ditto; I look forward to this every year. It’s really cool.
That Abreu contract looks so silly.
Wow! The accuracy is very impressive!
Yea, y’all were way off on quite a few but even with a pretty insane offseason, some of the predictions were still pretty darn close. Like years would be right but money off a few million, or years were off but AAV would be about rights. Better than I would have done