While Thursday’s Rays/Padres deal headlined by Tommy Pham and Hunter Renfroe likely won’t go down as this winter’s most shocking, the trade had something to say about the respective offseason strategies of both clubs. Tampa Bay, for their part, cut salary, increased controllability, and added yet another prized infield prospect to an already enviable collection. San Diego, true to their stated desire for a near-term return to contention, look to have secured an immediate improvement at the top of their lineup while also shuffling in an interesting two-way player likely capable of providing the big league roster with some extra support.
Hunter Renfroe is the most immediate addition to the Rays’ roster, even if this deal may have been more about the acquisition of infield prospect Xavier Edwards from the viewpoint of Tampa Bay GM Erik Neander. Renfroe has gained his share of detractors over the years for a free-swinging, low-OBP approach at the plate, but 2019 saw him finally realize the defensive potential many scouts foresaw when he was a top-100 prospect. Lining up primarily in the corners with a few starts in center, the former Bulldog recorded 22 Defensive Runs Saved and a 10.1 Ultimate Zone Rating last year, after recording average-or-worse marks in those categories the year prior. His arm is also touted as one of MLB’s most imposing.
Observers noting Renfroe’s underwhelming 98 wRC+ last year might be well-served to remember that the 27-year-old had a .252/.308/.613 line (132 wRC+) with 27 home runs heading into the All-Star break last year, before a variety of injuries were believed to have led to a precipitous second-half decline (Renfroe ended his season with a foot surgery). But even if Renfroe proves to be the roughly average hitter he’s been over the course of his career, Neander will have acquired a defensive standout capable of providing power, if nothing else, to the Rays’ lineup; better yet, he’s projected to make just $3.4MM in his first trip through arb, making him a very affordable source of said power.
As for the second aspect of this deal for the Rays, Edwards is a 20-year-old speedster who reached High-A last season. He’s hit just one home run in over 700 plate appearances since making his minor-league debut in 2018, but the youngster has terrorized pitchers (with a .328/.395/.399 career slash) and scorched the basepaths (56 steals in 168 games). When he was taken with the 38th-overall pick in the 2018 draft, MLB Pipeline relayed that scouts observed “excellent actions and footwork at shortstop” with an arm sufficient for the infield’s left side; he’s mostly split time between short and second so far in the minors, but it stands to reason his speed would play in center, as well. The Rays also acquired a PTBNL in this deal, which is not to be disregarded when said player is coming from a loaded San Diego system.
In Pham, the Padres added a player with a clear leg up on Renfroe for the title of “Best MLB Player” involved in this deal. While, at 31, he may never again reach the vertigo-inducing heights he climbed in 2017 with the Cardinals (149 wRC+ in 530 PAs), he’s still been an excellent player over the last two seasons in Tampa. His 12.1 percent walk rate, .186 isolated slugging mark, and 125 wRC+ since the beginning of 2018 all bear the markings of a standout hitter–and that’s before adding in the 42 homers and 40 steals he’s managed in that time. At an expected arbitration award of $8.6MM in his penultimate trip through the process, Pham rates as an immediate offensive upgrade over Renfroe, while drawing a salary that will possibly be less than half of what Marcell Ozuna figures to command this offseason.
Jake Cronenworth, the second player headed to San Diego in this deal, is a 25-year-old infielder capable of handling mop-up pitching duties in a pinch. Before 2019, the former Wolverine had never recorded a slugging mark north of .400 in his minor league career, but his first prolonged exposure to Triple-A baseball yielded an immediate improvement at the plate last year (surprise!). His .329/.422/.511 line with 10 homers in 419 plate appearances would lead one to believe that he’s ready for at least a part-time role in the bigs, even if those numbers were inflated by context somewhat; of course, hitting environment cuts both ways in prospect evaluation, so Cronenworth should be commended for being able to log 7.1 scoreless innings as a part-time pitcher in 2019, as well.
So, here we have a deal that, like a previous deal swung by Padres GM AJ Preller this offseason, seems to fit clear needs for both clubs. Question is, whose side do you like best?
First, Tampa Bay…
(Poll link for app users)
And San Diego…
(Poll link for app users)
Definitely seems like a trade meant for more trades by the rays. Yes the prospect is intriguing but blocked by many others. He’s a very attractive piece that could help the rays get Wilson contraeres yet the 5mil saved could be enough to reason binging in encarnacion on a single year deal for say 10-12 mil.
Wtf are you saying? Went from saying Xavier is blocked to Wilson Contreras to Encarnación?
Rays aren’t stupid. In 5 years, Xavier Edwards will be the crown jewel of this trade that’ll keep on giving: I coached X-man and my son played with him for a few seasons. Kid’s got good pedigree and is a smart player.
I have a hard time accepting someone’s input on a player when they personally know of that player. Sure the kid has talent, and so did millions of players before him that never made it to the majors or made it, but washed out so quickly. I respect that you coached him, but that doesn’t make Xavier a solid MLB player before even getting to the show.
In high school, I played against Bob Saunders (ex Indy Colts safety) and knew he was good athlete. But I never proclaimed him to be a major sports star before he was in any major sports uniform or jersey. Point to this is, never judge something beforehand. Xavier could be the next local story who made it big. Or he could be that local kid who tried but wasn’t successful. I’ve seen it happen to guys (one was a friend).
Well stated. There’s something to be said for guys who peak early as well as those who are late bloomers, as well. The percentage of guys who are just destined for greatness at the next level—given what you see in their youth—has to be minuscule
I wonder what the percentage of players that get drafted in the top 20 make it to the show?
Make it, that statistic would be high. Last for more than a cup of coffee, very low percentage.
You figured that out all by yourself? Wow. Jeez, I already was punching my ticket to his HOF ceremony…
As stated by others, nothing is a sure thing. HOWEVER, Edwards was an elite player through high school and our travel team tournaments (13 states). He clearly displayed advanced skills. And, apparently, scouts and talent evaluators thought the same as he was taken 38th in the draft out of HS.
Moreover, Xavier’s 328/395/399 thru A+ as a 19 y/0 backs his ability.
Will he fulfill his projections.? No one knows. But I’m confident the kid will be successful at the major league level.
And btw – 2 other kids I’ve coached are in the minors and 3 more (including my son), did not sign and are in college on Scholarships.
I give it a C for the Padres. The trade wasn’t unfair on paper, but they could have just signed a corner outfielder instead. There’s like thousands of them. Castellanos and Ozuna were both right there. Padres could have easily gotten this type of upgrade without losing anyone.
Two guys who suck defensively. With Pham they are getting a better player than Ozuna and Castellanos. Believe me I saw Ozuna play defense all year. It’s dreadful.
That’s bad to say because Ozuna statistically was a better defender than Pham last year
Proving the defensive metrics are not suitable statistics if Ozuna is statistically a better defender than Pham. Not in this lifetime would that be true. Plus one must factor the awfully weak scorekeeping in today’s game. Errors most of the time are called hits for a variety of reasons.
Pham is less of a commitment though. 2 years of him vs 4+. I get the sense Preller is filling in gaps to be competitive but also waiting for some of the young talent.
I give it a B because you didn’t have to give the compensation draft pick and got renfro out of the system and you upgraded.
I gave both polls an ‘F’ for no reason. I’m a rebel like that.
That’s a side-effect of diabeetus.
Slapdick move
The poor Madres got swindled again. The Rays are just too smart for them. Renfroe will win the HR crown and Xman will be the future Ozzie Smith II while the Madres eat crow with a 31 year old fading malcontent and light hitting utility man. LMAO.
Keep drinking that kool-aid!
At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Renfroe sure can hit a home run, but how can anyone accept his borderline mendoza average and his matching OBP. He wont stick around long with those numbers.
Edward’s, runs, and hits well. We had two similar prospects that performed similar and didnt go anywhere besides 4A, due to their complete lack of power. This will be Edward’s challenge as well.
As a Rays fan I am hoping that there is an additional move coming to replace Pham with someone better…Starling Marte perhaps? Renfroe could be an adequate replacement for Avi Garcia but not Pham. I get that we like the prospect but this trade makes the Rays worse right now.
Well if you read any quote from Neander on Marc Topkins twitter page there is 100% more moves to come
The Cubs line up well as trading partners here. Schwarber would be a stellar fit in TB.
I think Rays would try to acquire Wilson Contreras before Schwarber. They value defense a ton and Neander continues to mention a catching upgrade
You can’t ever rate deals in a vacuum. We don’t yet know what this one means for the rest of the off-season. On the surface, it seems the Rays are closer to contention than the Padres, yet they seemed to have taken a step back in 2020 in order to keep loading up for the future while the Padres seem to be going all in for 2020.
But if this deal opens opportunities for the Rays to fill other holes for 2020 while maintaining their excellent current roster, it is a big win for them. And if Pham provides the elements necessary to coalesce the Padres young talent into winners, it is a big win for them.
buddaly, Yours is the best post I’ve read regarding this trade. At this point, we can only SPECULATE as to who will win this trade. To really grade this trade, we’ll have to come back in a couple of years. As a Padres fan, this much is CERTAIN for me. The Padres need to win, The Padres are paying MORE money in this trade, sacrificed the more elite prospect, and gave up the OF with more team control. If Pham plays like he can and has prevously the Padres could win this trade, yet there are just too many “if’s” to name a winner right now.
Deal is fine for Tampa in a vacuum, but the overall picture is just another tally towards evidence that this is a joke of an organization that has somehow convinced everybody that they need a new publicly funded building and fans to show up in order to spend any money when we all know that teams are getting all different sorts of revenue streams that have caused franchise values to soar in to the billions.
So you think the Rays have the revenue to just go buy free agents
I don’t see how this is much of a win for the rays. Everyone has explained it for me, but I don’t buy it.
I couldn’t tell lol. You’ve made 30 posts about how you don’t get it. When you have MLB Network analysts and MLB executives saying “when the Rays call about a trade, Hang up” people know the rays are very very good at what they do. There’s a reason you’re on the couch and not a GM
They are a contenders and they made their team dramatically worse with this trade. Maybe in the long run it pays off but they aren’t in it to win today with this move
Please go look through numbers and tell me how the team is dramatically worse lol, Pham may be a smidge better but again they’re totally different players and I’m pretty sure the team that won 96 games with the 2nd best farm system knows a lot more than you do
Nonsense. Pham might be slightly better, but not dramatically better. Renfroe was one of the top hitters in BB before he got hurt.
Because Tommy Pham is 31 and on the downside of his career, because Renfroe is capable of putting up All Star numbers like he did in the first half of 2019 and because Xavier Edwards is a prospect with a ton of helium.
Pretty fair article but did skip past the part that Pham has declined consistently in his baserunning and defense attributes over the past 2 years. His line drive rate has been okay but as the late bloomer he is he’s getting to his age 32 season and getting more expensive, his 2020 season may be a tick better depending on what means more to you in a player but 2021 this is easily a Rays success. Also as the Rays gm stated yesterday this allows them to be more aggressive in acquiring more offense this offseason, so adding cheap power was a big deal for this team. And each press conference he has he keeps mentioning an upgrade at catcher, with no many upgrades left on the open market.. and continuing to acquire prospects….. I know a catcher out there to trade for that could make this Rays team look reallllll good
There were mlb trade rumors comments after Pham was traded by St Louis to Tampa Bay; he had good stats, but apparently was tough to deal with as respects contract and playing time issues. Wonder if he wore out his welcome in 2 years with Tampa Bay.
Rays GM was pretty upset about having to let him go and Pham posted multiple posts thanking the Rays. Everyone around Tampa loved him
Apparently Blake Snell was very upset as well.
StL found him to be selfish & uncoachable.
Just a matter of time before others reach the same conclusions.
C for both.
Right now it’s easily a win for Padres. Hard to judge down the road though. But SD needs to start competing. They’ve been spinning the tires for too long, it’s time for them to do something with all the talents they’ve brought in lately.
Pham got on base, but also cost the Rays quite a few runs on the basepaths causing them to not score runs. So getting on base is good getting thrown out on second isn’t worth anything. He was thrown out 20 times in the basepaths. The Rays ranked 12th in the American League in runs scored and still made the playoffs, when Renfroe drives in 3 runs with one swing that’s gonna be better for a team who already has a ton of contact first hitters. And saving 22 runs in the outfield compared to negative runs saved. I don’t see how this is easily a win for the padres
They got the better player and while the prospect is certainly high upside, he’s also a very risky type who could end up with a noodle bat that stalls in the upper minors.
It’s also worth mentioning we don’t know what the total return is yet. It could (and probably should) be another high upside prospect going to Tampa.
Renfroe is more necessary for the Rays needs right now, they don’t have players as good as Pham but all have the same basic skill as Pham that’s how they’re built. They ranked very low in home runs and runs scored, they needed someone to drive in runs, not lose them playing defense and not get thrown out on the basepaths 50% of the time
When the club chairman says “heads will roll”, you can figure why a GM would trade four years and six years of control for two years of control. Fortunately for the Padres, they’re deep enough in prospects to trade their #6 prospect – their #5 prospect plays the same positions. They’ll survive the ‘win now’ mandate.
The Rays are doing what the Rays do: trade a player on the downslope of playing skills and the upslope of salary for young talent. They’ll trade the major leaguer they got in trade after a couple years for more young talent.
You can say the Rays took advantage, but the Padre GM is under ownership pressure and is dealing from an incredibly deep farm without touching his core. It’s a good short term deal for the Padres, and it’s a good longer term deal for the Rays. You won’t realize that if you look at the trade in isolation.
Padres are still a year or two away, IMO. They have a boat load of good young prospects and a potential future MVP in Tatis Jr., but if you look at the perennial contenders there’s generally a mix of talented young and very good seasoned players on the roster.
Pads need at least one proven top of the rotation starter and some additional options at 2b and the outfield. Preller is trading like an a maniac right now trying to keep his job.
JDGoat, “It’s easily a win for Padres”. It better be for AJ Preller’s sake! He gave up four years of control on Renfroe for two years of control on Pham. He is also paying 5M more per year for Pham and gave up the far more elite prospect. Heck, RISK is a part of any trade. If the Padres compete for the wild card in 2020 and 2021 and Pham helps them do that….WORTH IT.
794 Slugging and on base is not exactly terrorizing numbers
Rays win here, they weren’t going to be able to pay Pham so they traded him at peak value. Also corner guys that are pretty much all bat shouldn’t have significant value because they’re more replaceable. And their development staff should be able to get more out of Renfroe.
Nowhere near the steal level the Archer trade was but this will likely look to clearly favor the Rays by around midseason. And if not definitely a year or so from now, they got A LOT more years of control of two really talented players
How can we grade the trade when we don’t know yet the PTNL… front office is actually working on identification of the best prospect it pick from a list. Knowing how they work, they can find another jewel.
That being said, this trade between Padres and Rays is better for both side and more balanced than the one with Steven Souza, Trea Turner and Wil Myers..
Preller’s involved. Padres lose.
Yes, Tatis for the mess that was James Shields was a nice result but no James Shields and keep Trea Turner would have left a lot of salary open to make moves later.
Same goes for the Matt Kemp – Yasmani Grandal trade. A productive catcher would have been nice, eh?
Wil Myers & Kemp weren’t benefits to the clubhouse either…
“Prellers involved, Padres lose”
You sound like a three year old
Should have not signed Shields and then outbid the White Sox for Tatis when he hit the international market. I believe the Sox only paid him $300k.
Both get C’s. Rays get weaker now when they are close to gaining a division title (now). A signing or two may have pushed them over the edge. Not that far behind the Yankees. Padres think they’re gonna win without serious upgrades on the mound. Not gonna happen. My opinion.
Said this before…anyone that deals with Tampa ends up losing. A for Rays, C for Padres.
Padres get a B from me.
With Grisham and Pham Padres got better defensively in the OF. Grisham Margot Pham is one of the best defensive alignments Padres have had in years.
Sure losing Edwards hurts but grand scheme of things- Abrams, Quiroz, Vosler, and Padres could always deal for someone or sign someone as a stop gap or long term. 2B has options.
Still gotta move Myers and sign 1 more arm like Roark or Wood.
Attach Patino Baez Quantril and Miller to Myers contract
Sign Roark or Wood
Richard Paddack Morejon Lucchessi Roark/Wood Davies- 6 man rotation to limit innings for Paddack and Richard
Trade Yates to recoup prospects from Myers deal. Move Lamet to closer.
Roark doesn’t move the needle. If they trade myers and all those prospects they wont eat hardly any of that money. Gives you room to get stras, ryu or bum.
I do think lamet could be a future closer. All depends if he can get develop a 3rd or 4th pitch.
I still think they need another OF, 2b and tor starter.
The current roster isnt a playoff team. Not even close to the a division winner.
Tatis
Pham
Machado (those three look good)
After that all avg or below avg hitters
I like the rotation better but still missing that dude at the top.
I gave the Padres a B because they’ve spent the last couple years with a bunch of OFs who weren’t ready for or capable of a full-time role. Pham represents a consolidation of talent that they needed to pull off, in a way adding Grisham did not. I gave the Rays a C because I’m not sure about Renfroe.
Padres don’t have a clue as to what they are doing except acting as a farm system for the rest of MLB.
Starters (not batting order)
Tatis
Pham
Machado
Hosmer
Mejia/hedges
Margot/Grisham
OF
2b
Bench
Mejia/hedges
Margot/Grisham
Garcia
Profar
Cordero
You can get away with profar/Garcia platoon but isnt great and doesnt stretch the lineup.
Kinsler just needs to go.
If they can add an impact bat in the outfield and at second that changes the entire lineup.
Pitching is deeper but also less proven at the top.
Wil Meyers gets nary a mention. You have to include him. The Padres do not seem very competitive with this lineup — at least without a B-grade or A-grade starting rotation. They are at about a D or C. Ownership needs to give this a little time and let the younguns make their tryouts at the major league level.
Myers = bum
If they keep myers does that lineup really look any better? What is he league avg at best these days.
Think they trade him, eat some money and prospects but needs to be done.
Take the money saved to add stras, ryu or bum.
Then trade for a good outfielder and 2b. Probably will do some sort of combination of those. Question is are they willing to go to 170m or so payroll. That’s what it would take to actually make this team competitive next year.
Just imagine if they white Sox never traded Tatis Jr. For James Shields. White Sox would be loaded in the infield. They could have flipped tim Anderson for a few low-level prospects that had some upside
It was great for SD. Tommy Pham is as close to home as he can get. Unless they bring an extension team to las Vegas
This is a marginal win for TB, Renfroe will benefit from the move, while Pham’s power numbers will plummet a bit. But he will still be a threat at the top of the Padres’ lineup. What makes it a marginal win for Rays is the salary relief now and the potential of Xavier Edwards as a future player or trade chip.
Pretty good trade. Rays will be better in the outfield. Refroe might benefit from being in his prime away from Petco. Rays need to do something big. I like trading for Lindor but Martinez might be a better fit salary wise. Rays send Adames plus a little for Lindor with the chance for him and Franco to play one or two years together. Cards could go after Martinez, offering Martinez to dh as one of the main pieces. Indians save money while remaining competitive. I’d trade Kluber and Hand also. Reyes might be a piece.
I keep hearing oh the rays are losers because they are cheap. How many times have we seen other teams buy guys and then struggle because Those guys fall apart? I for one am proud to be a fan of a team that thinks and deals and strategizes. Cole is about to get an 8 year 250 plus million dollar deal at age 29. He will never be able to earn that entire contract and who ever signs him will be hampered 4 years in when he starts to lose velocity and his body breaks down. No thanks!!
This deal also isn’t for 4 years of Hunter Renfroe. There’s no way the Rays are paying for his last arb year, and probably not his last 2. They might even deal him and his .294 career OBP (.289 in 2019) tomorrow.
I’m surprised they did this deal at all. Hunter Renfroe? His bat’s in decline and he didn’t suddenly get faster in his late 20s.