The top tier of the free agent pitching market has been shorn away. Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), and Zack Wheeler ($118MM) all handily outpaced our guarantee projections from earlier this offseason, leaving an open question: what about the best of the rest? With Jake Odorizzi and Cole Hamels accepting a qualifying offer and an early deal, respectively, the market’s current top starters are likely Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel.
We’ve already heard that Bumgarner is looking to shoot over the $100MM threshold, and one team has reportedly provided him with a $70MM floor. Keuchel, solid pitcher though he is, comes back to the open market on the heels of a prorated Atlanta season that saw him pitch to a 4.72 FIP–the $39MM projection we tagged him with back in November still feels like a reasonable ballpark. But where do recent developments leave Ryu?
Simply scanning reader comments on any Ryu-related article this offseason would lend you a pretty solid sense of the wide range of opinions surrounding Ryu’s left arm. There’s no question that arm is effective–you don’t pitch to a career 2.98 ERA or sub-2.00 career BB/9 rate without a surgical level of skill. There’s also no question the former KBO standout is hitting the market at the right time. If Cole can parlay a second-place Cy Young finish into a record-setting free agent payday, what prize should remain for the award’s NL runner-up?
The answer to that question will likely hinge upon how risk-averse front offices will feel as they survey the market’s remaining options. Few pitchers hit free agency free of some historical health concerns (Strasburg and Wheeler included); at the same time, Ryu has hardly been a picture of durability to this point in his major league career. Since coming to L.A. in advance of the 2013 season, Ryu has made 125 starts in seven seasons–an average of 17.8 starts per year. Then again, maybe that’s not a fair depiction: it may be more accurate to simply say that shoulder and elbow surgeries limited him to one appearance from 2015-2016, while he was likewise limited to just 15 starts in 2018.
But for teams looking for premium performance, the 32-year-old Ryu has a clear leg up on just about anyone currently available. He’s logged two consecutive seasons in the top five percent of pitchers in terms of walk rate and he induces ground balls at a very healthy clip. According to Statcast, he’s almost unmatched when it comes to limiting hard contact: hitters managed just an 85.3 mean exit velocity against Ryu’s five-pitch arsenal last year, a mark that ranked in the game’s top four percent. He just won the ERA title, after a 2018 campaign that saw him post a 1.97 earned run average in 15 starts. You get the picture–Ryu is very good at pitching, when healthy.
In advance of the 2017 season, the Dodgers signed lefty Rich Hill to a three-year, $48MM deal. To that point, Hill had twice exceeded the 100-inning threshold at the major league level in a 12-year career. He was set to turn 37 the following spring. To boot, that deal took place three years ago and in advance of several record-setting contracts for open-market pitching. The question is: what does a high-performing, oft-ailing pitcher deserve three years on from when Hill secured $48MM in guarantees? We predicted three years and $54MM for Ryu at the winter’s outset, but, in the wake of this offseason’s events (and considering the Wheeler deal, especially) there seems to be a fair argument that his horizons have expanded. The Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Cardinals have all been specifically linked to him in recent weeks.
We put it to you: which team is best positioned to take a chance on him, and what kind of contract does he figure to receive?
Where will Ryu sign? (Poll link for app users)
How long will the contract be? (Poll link for app users)
What will the total guarantee be? (Poll link for app users)
you can do that, epp!
I voted Twins. He’s not going to the Blue Jays.
4 years. Whether option included or not. I think max 4 years. To milk the market.
And $80 as a high point. Considering the market to date.
I might be way off and he gets skunked with a one year make good deal. But I think he’s going for top of the mark in his free agency.
– And Scott Boras is his Agent. So there’s that.
I also voted Twins . I think 2 years , $38M – $42M . Throw in an option year as well .
Twins, 3/80- opt out after 2
I do not see Ryu getting near $30m/yr on a multi-year deal, but I think the Twins make the most sense.
Twins are never interested in actually signing people, just letting the media and fans know that they’re “kicking the tires” about guys.
I have to agree with you there. The Twins are always in on the big name players which make the most sense for the team, but their final offer is always 20% or so below the winning bidder. I suspect they’re intentionally careful not to make a truly competitive offer to players where the player would have a good reason to pick Minnesota.
Yu Darvish is an absolutely perfect example. The Cubs got Darvish for 6yrs / $126 million. The Cubs never even expected to be in the running for Darvish… but his contract went so low they shuffled around to get him. His original asking price was somewhere in the $180 million range and the general expectations were in the $150 million range for him, but word is the Twins’ offers capped out at 4yrs/$100 million. Darvish was the pitcher they desperately needed on paper and a pitcher they could have easily afforded given the big players were hamstrung on budget, but they couldn’t even formulate a legitimate offer…
Dodgers 4 years 85M
You can take the Cardinals off of any recognizable MLB players list!!! Read the quotes from the Cardinals owners and President of Baseball operations. Evidently they hate baseball fans in St. Louis!!! Both have stated the Cardinals are releasing players like Wacha and Ozuna. But not replacing them with anyone!!!!
Blue Jays let’s go!!!! 4 years $74M is my prediction. Maybe with some incentives.
Hope the Brewers pawn some equipment and find some money in the couch cushions to throw at him
Angels 4/80. More wouldn’t shock me.
I agree with angels. I pickes Astros though it looks like his price is getting higher. He may get 5 years or 25M for four. He is really really good. Quality number one pitcher. Now angels really need him. Could see about 15 teams in on him
Dodgers 4/75
Why aren’t the rangers on here? They are interested
Don’t feel left out as the Angels are also not on this poll! SMH
Dodgers should go 4 years 85 million.
I think both Dylan and all commenters on here are lowballing all three’s likely contracts. I expect all of them to break $100M, whatever teams sign them.
Back to the Dodgers 3 years 66 million.
You’re crazy Mike! We know you want Ryu pitching for your team!
Nice to see MLBTR is finally coming around to reality on Ryu. Their initial forecast was way low, now we can see just how ridiculously low. If Strasburg and Cole are worth $35M/year how could Ryu be worth only $18M? He could pitch only 100 innings and be worth that much to a team. It’s also good to see the recognition that the vast majority of his lost innings were due to two injuries, both long behind him. Three guaranteed years at $22M AAV, possibly more with performance bonuses.
Ohhhh it was painstakingly low!! Now let me project 3/66 like it’s absolutely blowing a 3/54 out of the water. IDIOTS at MLBTR
But you are using Cole, Strasburg and Wheeler as your examples. Nobody thought those players were going to reach the figures they did. That’s the reason why Ryu will blow the initial expectation out of the water and not because he was always going to get whatever he gets.
Who are these nobodies you speak of? The only people who were shocked at what Strasburg and Cole got (I didn’t mention Wheeler) are the people who aren’t paying attention, probably because they’re too busy complaining about how ballplayers are all overpaid and every big contract is mistake. And yet the price tag for premium players keeps going up because the teams are willing to pay them. Strange how that works. Then works again, and again.
Arithmetic tells me that the difference between 18 and 22 is more than 20% and $12M that 20% and $12M is not an insignificant difference either to the team or the player. Darned that arithmetic! Notice also my “possibly more.” Notice also that I didn’t call anyone an idiot, though that response seems more appropriate now.
BlueSKY: let me be a Passive aggressive D-bag. Then try to turn it around! Keep inhaling your own flatulence. See ya dink.
4/84
I dont think he signs with my jays but if he did, 4/84 or 5/100. I say twins 4/85 with option for 5th. 20 per year and 17 club option with 5 buy out
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I’m saying Angels, Rangers or Padres, 4/80
He’ll stay on the west coast
I think ryu will stay on the west coast. I think he would prefer to stay with the dodgers, so he might take a discount to stay some place familiar.
For players from Asia the West Coast isn’t so much a matter of familiarity but of shorter and more direct flights home.
Oh yeah. Ryu flys home in between games
Doh. He has family in Korea, don’t you think? They visit him, don’t you think? He goes home when he is able, don’t you think?
direct flight from LA to Soul is 13 and a half hours., direct flight from Toronto is 1 hour longer at 14 and half hours
Are you taking time zones into account? 1 hour from Toronto to LA sounds off.
This isn’t related to Ryu but since he was mentioned in this article, Odorizzi has to be kicking himself for taking the QO
haha, I was literally going to post the same thing, right down to the phrase ‘kicking himself’. He could have gotten $80 million easily.
Rich people problems!
I see him staying in Los Angeles, but with the Angels. They need pitching, have a fairly pitcher-friendly park, and have revamped the lineup. Moreno’s capable of forking over more money than he already has. I say 4 years/$80 million
All great points and well said. I said Dodgers because it seems like the Angels have been a step behind what they should do this offseason. If he goes there, it’s one step toward building that pitching staff and trying to make a run – they certainly have the hitting.
twins.. a good playoff push a very young team to add to a great manager, he’d fit like a glove. I didnt choose the cardinals but i do see them getting David price, they arent a team to do that poorly in the post season and be ok with it.
The only way I hope we get Price is if they attach a young player like Benintendi. That way we would fix two problems. A outfielder and another rotation piece. Or if they ate a lot of money
Poor performance was due to them not being that good of a team last year.
Twins won’t sign him. They’ll probably get Keutchel once he’s all that’s left of the bigger names in 2nd tier. 2 years / $45
Jays for 3 years and 75 million plus an option on a 4th year!
GO JAYS GO!!!!!
Thanks for doing this poll!!!!
Cardinals will say they were in it on Ryu, but then we’ll find out their offer was about 40% BELOW the winning team’s contract offer. But man oh man did “they try”.
Why would the Cardinals need to be in on Ryu? They don’t need him. To put a flyer out there for what a player might be worth or, God forbid, below is a business move. They could even land him with a low ball offer. Go bash Target now for buying candy canes from the supplier who sells them for 10 cents less. Next.
Did you read the article or the one from a few days ago? Why would they need Ryu? The same reason ANY team would need a lefty starter with a career 2.98 ERA. Did you watch the playoffs? Did you see the teams with TWO #1 STARTERS? Cards have Flaherty and? BTW, don’t quit your day job, if you have one, because your jokes are lame.
The cardinals don’t need the cry young runner up in NL? Really? Their starting 5 is so dominant that ryu would not be an asset? They did so well against the Nationals in nlcs.
They still need another #5. Whether it is Martinez or a signing
Dominant starting 5? Like I said, you can’t fix stupid.
Yep, Ryu would be an asset. I wasn’t debating that. I was debating this matter with a insult throwing p.o.s. over taking a flyer on a player from a business perspective. The starting 5 is not dominant but that has little to do with losing out to the World Champion Nationals.
CFAP Brah, I assure you, what I do in my day job goes beyond anything that you will contribute to this society in your entire lifetime if the comments you make, on this forum, are any indication of who you really are.
Pelican, I was responding to Mikel Grady about the Ryu asset comment. I’m going to take the high road and stop making negative comments to you. I’m sure you’re a fine, upstanding citizen. I don’t think either one of us needs to get into an anonymous pizzing match. This isn’t life or death importance. Your comments are duly noted.
Touché
Well now I wanna kno what you do. Care to share?
Why would the Cardinals need to be in on Ryu?
oh, I don’t know…starting pitching, something along those lines…
Really hard to predict which team it will be to sign Ryu but it will be at least 3 years and a little below $100.
Angels 4 84
Twins get Ryu. Jays won’t spend that. Shapiro is terrified of mistakes with free agents.
Nonsense, complete and utter nonsense! Jays just gave out 24 mil on a 2 year contract to a Free agent!!!
Ryu is such a sneaker good pitcher. I’d absolutely love if the Yanks swooped in and shored up the pitching staff further with him
I’d love to see them do that….. they need it. I saw a report last night (SB Nation?) that said they were engaged with MadBum. You make a great point.
Blue Jays it seems are desperate to sign him but it’s hard to see him signing there because Canada.
Why is coming to Canada any different than him coming to the USA from Korea? that is nonsense!
Because Canada is not even in the US. No Japanese/Korean player who has a choice is going to go to Canada. Not part of the US, borders, high taxes, Siberian weather, too far back home etc. They didn’t grow up dreaming about playing baseball in Canada. Never thought of Canada and aren’t going to start. No offence intended, just a fact.
Because Canada is not even in the US. No Japanese/Korean player who has a choice is going to go to Canada. Not part of the US, borders, high taxes, Siberian weather, too far back home etc. They didn’t grow up dreaming about playing baseball in Canada. Never thought of Canada and aren’t going to start. No offence intended, just a fact
Nonsense, complete and utter nonsense!!!
Siberian weather? Playing in a dome! too far from home, For sure but playing anywhere on the east coast is far from home! They dream of playing in the MLB which includes the Jays!
Yes, it’s ‘complete and utter nonsense!!!’ that every player in MLB negotiates a no-trade clause to Canada, as soon as they’re able to negotiate their contract. But even though they negotiate a no-trade to Canada, they harbor secret desires to go there and experience the tax structure, bad weather, remote location, constant border crossings etc. I remember when the Blue Jays couldn’t even trade for a minor reliever in Koji Uehara, because he had a no-trade to Toronto. Every player virtually has a no-trade to Canada. It’s almost part of the standard player contract now.
What happened did you get banned from entering Canada?? Plenty of Major league players have spent their careers playing for the Jays, some even enter 1 day contracts so they can retire as a Blue Jay! A lot come and never want to leave! How is Toronto remote?? The weather in Toronto is no different than it is in Detroit, New York, New Jersey! Quit making stuff up, not every player has Toronto on their no-trade clause that is rubbish!
No its not.
Hey there Eddie Nice Guy! guess what 2 Asians have now signed in Toronto, we have now signed 4 Free agents with no issues with no trade clauses seems your insight about Canada was all WRONG!!!!!!!!!
Dodgers 5 years $100 million
Blue Jays, 3/60M plus incentives is what I hope for but it looks like the Cardinals or Dodgers will snag him. He knows he won’t post those numbers in the AL.
Jays 3/66 w an option for a fourth. Lots of payroll space and should coincide with a next batch of prospects potentially breaking through. Mind you, that’s as much a preference as a prediction.
Here is the issue. Ryu isn’t going to take a 3 year deal (especially with a club option) to play in Canada. He can get a 3 year deal in the US, so that’s the end of that. At the same time, he doesn’t want a longer deal in Canada which would mean he would have to spend years there. The obvious solution would be something like a 5 year guarantee, around 100m, with an opt out after 2 and 3 years that would allow him to get out if he wants while guaranteeing years of pay like Tulowitzki if everything goes south. That timeline doesn’t match up with the club.
it’s not. With the Canada thing. I dont believe you without links to back it up…
No team needs him more than the Angels. I expect LAAoA to sign Ryu and Keuchel.
Yep. I think Moreno jumps in with both feet. The Astros have issues, the A’s always seem unwilling to go the next step, nobody knows what Jon Daniels is doing (including Daniels), and DiPoto is still at the “let’s play 52 pickup” stage. There’s room in the AL West.
Otherwise signing Tony TwoBags is just idiotic; just changes the average final loss from 8-3 to 8-5.
Would love to see it; I admit my man-love for Trout and Simba. But they gotta make some moves.
I went with Other with the Angels in mind, three years at $52m with a fourth year option. The Angels need a lot more than Ryu but he’s a start, Keuchel may be the best first piece Imo. It be nice and fun to see Trout and Ohtani have a shot in the playoffs during their prime years.
I don’t see the Angels signing both. You are looking at best guess $35 million per (total)for both guys. I can see one of them and another starter via trade.
I don’t think the Cards will sign him. If they somehow did I would definitely be happy. I don’t see it but I have my fingers crossed
If they do sign him, they will have one hell of a pitching staff, with Flaherty leading…. stats show that Flaherty will drop slightly this year, not sure why though. Kind of hoping the Yanks make at Ryu too, but I have seen no indication of that.
Ryu is overrated.
You know, based on his projections that’s a very accurate statement. He’s projected to drop off, comparatively. Good point. Still puts him better than Happ for the Yankees though and he’d be the Angels ace or close thereto.
He wasn’t in 2019. You could make a strong argument that he should’ve been the CY Young. That being said, it’s a pitchers market, so yes, he’ll likely be overpaid.
Hanhwa Eagles
Eagles
Angels 3/50 with some vesting option. He gets to stay on the West Coast and Arte taps into the robust Korean market just a few miles east of the stadium, which is larger than LA’s.
Ryu is going to get more than that. Did you miss the article where he said he had no preference to stay on the West Coast? He basically said I’m available to the highest bidder. 3 and 50 isn’t going to come anywhere close to getting him.
I’m guessing the Twins for 3yrs/$78MM.
If Ryu’s salary goes over $100mm, which I don’t doubt at this point, I will be surprised if the Angels get him. I think they should, and they may, but with the way they’ve been progressing(?) through the offseason, I think the Trout/Rendon contracts are weighing heavily on their decision for pitching. They should be all over Ryu and Dallas or MadBum to bring experience to their young staff.
Good Pitching is simply not available for the next four years in FA. Plus, if they trade for Price, he’s slotted for another 4+ ERA season and 2.5 WAR, and 4.21 FIP, so quite average. Is it worth it to lose prospects? Not trying to criticize by any measure, just convo for the forum.
I believe the Twins are the best fit here at 4yrs / $90 million or so, but honestly, the Twins’ ownership could turn coal into diamonds between their butt cheeks.
That said, I agree with the comments above the Twins are actually more likely to sign Keuchel (if Keuchel goes at 3yrs or fewer) when they “make a competitive offer” which is actually 20% lower than the winning bid for Ryu.
Ryu for more than two years is scary. He’s older, fragile and carries around too much weight. Teams are paying a premium on good pitchers though. Angels should be all over him. Excellent defensive infield and park dimensions for a LHP. They’ll have to treat him with kid gloves, like the Dodgers did. I don’t trust Maddon to do that. Or with Ohtani. The Dodgers could stash him on IL for a few weeks in August with their division a formality. The Angels won’t be in that position. 3/65? Boras probably gets a 4th year. But the Angels need him. Keuchel too while they’re at it.
2/35. I randomly picked the blue Jays.
Twins. 3/66M.
Figure Twins would look at 4 yrs given their lack of SP commitments into the future. But I am guessing a 3 yr/68M type deal gets him to Texas to play with his buddy Shin Soo Choo and be able to play in a warm weather division.
Rangers don’t have a need now that they’ve traded for Kluber.
Just saw! Is this a rebuild white flag from Cleveland? Two impressions, one, it opens division window wider for Twins so they might be even more motivated for a Ryu signing. Second, the trade will quiet the Daniels criticism. Kluber-Minor-Lynn looks pretty good top 3 for new Texas ballpark.
Let’s see how (or if) Twins react. One Ryu suitor off the board.
That division is so winnable. I would like to see one of these teams go all in. The Twins and White Sox need to sign some pitching.
Ryu is at least 2/$45-mil in this market. Two plus an option should be the ballpark. My guess is the Dodgers re-sign him.
Three years at least with Boras.
Boras has been shut out of what he’s pushed for in the past. Ryu is not guaranteed that 3rd year given his age and history of injury. If a team wants to give him 3-years I’d say that’s quite bold.
Have to remember that Boras is his agent , so of course Ryu gets overpaid .
Interesting thing is that Ryu has only had Honey as his pitching coach and had somewhat of a personal catcher . Not sure if that matters since Ryu seemed to not even break a sweat or show any emotipn on the mound. Just saying if he goes to a new team it will seem like it was a mistake until he regains the trust of a new pitching coach and catcher. Not to mention he seems to know the national league hitters pretty well and is not at all flashy so I’m not sure he is looking to be the “ACE”. My prediction is back to the Dodgers for 3 years at around 75 to 80 with a heavy incentive contact. Which I’m sure he will meet . But noway L.A pays him more than Kershaw .
So you’re saying there’s a chance.. I like it ahhh laawwwt
There is rumours flying about Jays interest in Ryu, and while that would be nice, does anyone know why Jays haven’t shown any interest in Dallas Keuchel. He’s 31 and by his record he hasn’t pitched badly. But the same thing happened to him last season. He didn’t get picked up by Atlanta until into late May so he only got 19 starts, it a period when every one is going after pitching it doesn’t make sense that he hasn’t been picked up.