With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.
Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.
Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.
What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.
As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.
Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.
For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.
What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.
I think he’ll goto The Rangers
Same, I think he goes 4/70-75 with an opt out after 2/3. Guys who’s best position is DH don’t make 20 a year.
There’s actually a few that do.
I think he gets 4 years, and I think he might touch 80. If you’re the Rangers or the White Sox, you can give him another year in the OF, see if he makes any more strides.
Not sure what the White Sox’ situation is, but you’re definitely right in the case of the Rangers. After 2020, Choo will be gone and Castellanos can slide into the DH role if he’s too much of a black hole in right field. If the Rangers were able to stomach Mazara in right field for 4 years, what’s one more year of bad defense?
Agree 100%
He will sign a 4 year 60 million dollar contract with the CUBS!!!!!
REDS
One year deal in March.
Hope not. I’m hoping for Shogo. I want a guy that has a good OBP and fielding skills.
Future reds DH. It will happen with the next mlbpa contract. Until then, he’ll due in left.
Reds are like bragging poor uncle who likes to says he going to buy this and that just to get name mentioned but cant really afford to play. They will get embarrassed then trade the farm or overpay for a has been. Just admit you can’t afford to play with big dogs so go lay under the porch@
Agreed. I don’t think the Giants are ready to spend any money just yet; Farhan is still rummaging through the discount aisle.
Rangers need a big right handed bat. This kid can play OF, 1B and eventually DH when Choo is gone.
I also could see the Rangers going after someone like Matt Duffy, more of a glove first guy who can hit a little bit.
If the Rangers don’t get Castellanos I think they pivot to Avisal Garcia.
If the A’s could sign him maybe they could fix his defense. Turned Semien into a gold glover albeit dofferent positions but still. My pick is the Mets. They could have Cadtellanos, Conforto and K. Tucker from Astros w/Syndergaard and throw The Flying Squirrel at 3B.
White Sox 4 years/$65 million
i picked whitesox over 74 mil for 5-6 years. as a tiger fan i expect a a division rival to overpay for sloppy nick. cubs have shown they have no money. man having two full time dh’s with heyward who can hit in the outfield would be a comedian’s dream
Cubs have mad money
Ricketts has shown everyone that he’s OK going another hundred years before the Cubs next trophy.
Cubs saving every penny to throw at Baez before somebody good gets it and rightfully so. Right Dogbone?
Not just Baez ita Rizzo as well both woll get at least 6 years. Rizzo is 30.so he’ll get 6 or 7 years. Baez might get 10 years. Those two should never leave or be traded. And they do t even want to leave.
Yes Baez 10-400 and Rizzo 10-399
That wont happen but they could if they wanted. Baez is only getting better. Rizzo is the best 1B in the NL and better tha half than the 1B in the AL.
There is so much wrong with this comment.
As a Cubs fan it pains me to say but Rizzo is not the best 1B in NL. I would say Freeman is the best, and then Rizzo and Goldschmidt could be flip flopped for 2 or 3. Both have comparable stats over the past 4 seasons, and both are elite gloves.
Get off the internet, Mr. President.
They already have Mazara for RF and Eloy for LF, so I don’t see the White Sox getting Nick anymore.
Don’t count the Tribe out.
After trying to trade Kluber and Lindor, safe to say they’re out.
(Checks who owns the Indians…Dolans….bloodsuckers)
I’m counting out the Indians.
It is “felony fraud”, right?
I wouldn’t know.
its AL OR BUST. nick is future dh. jd martinez is better in the field and batters box than nick and look what he got. i think nicker is worth half that? fair? i still remember him getting a black eye after getting smoked in the face at 3rd. fun times. you want to watch abuse? put a dh at third and see how many times the ball hits the body and not the glove. if its gets to be more than less, you have nick castellanos. oh no just move him to lf. ha
Didn’t the Rangers just get rid of a sub-standard outfielder!!
Brilliant – makes perfect sense
The Rangers currently have three right handed batters on their roster. One of their primary offseason goals is getting a strong right handed batter or two. This has little to do with him being an outfielder as he would likely see most of his time at DH anyways.
the only way that I see a fit is if he can move to 1B. Still have Choo locked in at DH.
They got rid of a substandard outfielder that couldn’t hit. The Rangers have a long history of playing the good hit no field outfielders… Canseco, Sosa, Juan Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz.
He’s certainly not a game-changer, unless it’s the ninth-inning and you up by two with him in RF.
He was pretty much the sole reason the Cubs had a shot at the playoffs last year… I’d say he’s capable of being a game-changer.
I am not counting out the Red’s. They are in the market for an outfielder with a really great bat. He definitely fits the bill.
I’m assuming you mean, you are counting on the reds instead of you aren’t?
He took the the long way around but that’s exactly what he meant…..
Why not to the Nats for 1B? We lost a huge contributor to our WAR with Rendon leaving and even Donaldson can’t replace that. Given that we got almost no production out of 1B last year, I think that Castellanos would be a nice upgrade. Also, most of the complaints about his defence are range related, and you don’t need much range for 1B
Interesting idea there.
U might want to watch more baseball. Did u say u got no production at 1st base last year?
Did u also say JD can’t match rendons war? Rendon has his best season ever and had a 6.3 war. Donaldson had a 6.1. I’m confused
Cubs have the longest road to get there but I feel should make the signing. If they wait until Bryant is potentially traded to make any signings they will be in a tough spot with an unhappy fan base. I think the rangers or giants scoop him up before the cubs are ready.
“it’s da city council! Day won’t issue da permit to install da Jacuzzis on da roof across da street at Cubbies Deck!”
Da Ignorance Dasn’t stop Das it…
I hope the Giants stay away from him. But everything I’ve wanted the Giants to do so far they do the opposite. I would be very happy if Zaidi and his group of yes men he brought in went away.
I think the Cubs will get him back
I’d like to start out by saying “I told you so”. Castellanos has been labeled a terrible fielder for years. I agreed, he was terrible at third. Had trouble with moving and catching the ball and had trouble throwing across the diamond. When he went to the outfield, he wasn’t a bumbling klutz like MLBTR’s wants to picture him. He was in a massive outfield which is terrible for someone with limited range and very little experience. He made the plays he was able to get to. As he gained experience, he gained confidence. He made a huge improvement this year, from a negative 31 rating to a negative 2. To say he will never be an average fielder is still shortsighted considering his improvement in just one year.
But… if I were Castellanos, I would avoid San Francisco. That’s another huge outfield. Not only for defensive reasons, but he is a very good opposite field hitter. He will be having trouble hitting home runs to right. Not only that, he would be playing a lot of games in San Diego and against the Dodgers where they have huge outfields. He should go somewhere like Texas or the White Sox where the outfield is smaller and he will have better offensive numbers.
As a Cub fan I watched Castellanos in the outfield and he is indeed terrible.
First, Castellanos gets bad jumps, second he takes bad routes and third it takes him forever to get the ball from the ground to the infield.
Castellanos turned a lot of singles into doubles and doubles into triples.
drascoo36- Sounds like you are describing Almora Jr.
Almora is a great fielder. Although according to MLB network rountine players were in the top 10 but when maddon played him every other 3 days he made at least 15 of the best plays. He robbed Yodi Molina of a home run twice in a game consecutive ABs in st Louis.
He was mad but he tipped his cap.
I think every single tiger fan including al avila is saying ‘I told you so’. Remember when everyone said he’s not worth a bucket of balls? Weird, same scenario with JD Martinez. Bucket of balls my .
If the Braves miss out on Donaldson, I could see Castellanos in left field the first two years. I expect the NL will have the DH in 2022, so he could slot there over the last three years of his deal.
If it’s Atlanta, no chance it’s left field. He would be in right field as it’s less spacious than left. That’s how they his Nick’s lack of range and got him 2 GG awards.
Good point.
The logic there is sound. The only hurdle I see is RF is really Acuna’s best position, and where I believe I saw somewhere that is where the plan is for him to eventually land.
Atlanta on a 1-year deal. He can play 3rd.some also if they don’t sign Josh.
I agree. The Braves are a dark horse, and he’d slot into RF with RAJ in LF and Inciarte in CF unless Inciarte is traded or one of the kids breaks camp with on the 26-man.
Braves don’t need him for 5 years.
As a Tiger fan and as someone who saw him play in low A ball in WM, I had wished they could have found a way to keep him. He certainly was young enough that he would have been a veteran bat on our next contending team. His trade was about $$ and nothing more. He was defensively limited, yes. If you can tolerate it (smaller park, good CF) then his offense will more than make up for it. He is also a good teammate.
To me though, SF makes little sense. He was vocal in how CoPa wasn’t a great hitters park. He was right, in regard to HR’s but it is a great doubles and triples park and he hit a ton of doubles here. SF seems as bad, maybe worse, than CoPa. But I guess if they pony up the $$ he’d put up with that. I hope he gets paid and is happy with wherever he signs.
I think he’s sick of settling for doubles
While the DH sounds enticing, I don’t see him going back to the AL. His huge 2nd half with the Cubs and all the NL parks, I believe sparked a new ‘love’ for the NL for him. I’ve seen other stories that he is willing to move around (possibly play first?) so depending on where he signs, the OF defense may not be an issue as much as normal. My guess is Giants 4/$65M.
I know it wont happen, but he’d be a good fit for the Pirates. maybe the appeal of being a cleanup guy and superstar would make him ink a 1 or 2 year deal? I’m sure the bucs are more interested in paying Bob Nuttings pool boys first however
You are right sir!
Never happen…..
Toronto to DH mostly, 5/$70m.
Expos 2/2
Had to give that a like.
No NL team should even consider him.
That is a ridiculous comment
I’m a little confused by this article and all the comments. Reports out of Chicago are that he has already agreed to a contract with the Cubs.
Link?
cubsinsider.com/2019/12/15/dubious-report-that-nic…
Cubs Insider had a comment about it. The link won’t post. More of an agreement in principle, or just an agreement to stand by. The Cubs apparently would need to clear some salary space.
They have 55 mil. The ricketts are just cheap.
ESPN Chicago radio Mike Murphy. Search Twitter. Sorry, I cant figure out how to copy a twitter link
Bleacher Nation also had some comments, and they throw some cold water on the idea.
That’s funny I got an uncle named Mike Murphy. He lives in Minnesota though
The DH needs to finally come to the NL
He would be a beast on the Braves but you can’t give him 4 yrs in the NL
You may could hide him in LF for a year or 2 but after that he will be a huge liability
That would be awful. They need to get that out of their head. That would be worse than a salary cap in baseball.
It would be ironic if he goes to the Giants since all he did was complain about how fair the fences were at Comerica Park…….
As a White Sox fan, I see no reason for the Sox to sign Castellanos. Hahn traded for a left handed batter by giving up Walker. There is no reason for the White Sox to spend money on Castellanos when the rotation needs another starter or two. I rather see the White Sox sign Kuechel to a three year deal and bring Nova back for one year until Kopech and Rondon are ready to get on the rotation.
Keuchel would be traded within the 2nd year. White Sox are still rebuilding.
You sound like a salty Cubs’ fan!
I’m not salty at all white Sox are not good. And they’re gonna finish mo better than 4th the next 4 years
The Indians just traded Kluber and are looking to move Lindor. The Royals are starting to rebuild. The Tigers are the same as the Royals but have two bad contracts that are not movable. While the Twins are short two starting pitchers so it’s going to between them and the White Sox with signing a pitcher to going against each other for the next few years.
Please explain to us how the White Sox are going to finish in fourth place with some reasoning behind it rather than being salty?
LOL! You obviously don’t pay attention to them at all then. They were 3rd in the division this year and neither Detroit nor KC are looking any better, while the White Sox have the #3 prospect in all of baseball coming up, a GG-caliber 2B who could hit .300 coming up, a former top 20 prospect who can throw over 100 returning from injury, and a former MiLB Pitcher of the Year getting his first full season of action, not to mention the addition of Grandal. I’m not saying that’s a contender, but that’s a hell of a lot better than anything Detroit or KC currently has to offer.
The White Sox still have a need at DH, and frankly, Mazara is nothing more than a platoon player.
Castellanos can also rotate in the outfield with Mazara, and spell Abreu at DH.
And as far as having options at DH, they really don’t, since McCann can not be relied upon to hit, and Abreu and Grandal will play positions most of the time.
Collins needs to play catcher in AAA to increase his value.
I am going with the South Siders of Chi-town…
Why?
I believe they will offer enough money and years and he can DH…
Wish the Cubs would bring him back but alas that will not happen…
The Sox have four guys to DH with Abreu, Collins, Grandal and McCann. It would not make sense to spend the money on Castellanos after acquiring Mazarra.
Watched Castellanos play in Toronto in 2019 and he wasn’t bad in the OF. Also has a strong arm, a plus in RF. Always wondered if Comerica was too big a park for him to handle. He seemed to improve from 2018, just my thought.
His stick is good. Teams needing a corner bat should be all over him. Cardinals should take a couple OFs, make a trade for a SP and sign Castellanos. Fowler/Bader, Castellanos OF is pretty good, Castellanos protects Goldschmidt. Jose Martinez, Lane Thomas, Yairo Munoz all shopped. Carpenter has a NTC I believe.
As a Reds fan, I’d rather have Corey Dickerson or Shogo …. not thrilled about Castellanos or Ozuna. Mostly because of OBP and Dickerson absolutely smashes in GASP. ( Great American Small Park) . On the other hand, I really like Phillip Ervin who the Reds drafted in an early round and has shown well and is an above average defender. If given 500 at bats , I believe he would give you, 25/85/.260 with a .330 OBP. Hes very much like Ozuna but cheaper and one of our own.
I’m more than satisfied with Winker/Ervin in LF and Senzel in CF. Both positions, as currently manned, will give you above average production. The biggest potential weakness in the Reds’ OF is RF. Aquino could be the next great thing, or he could be a flash in the pan. Another RFr is needed, and Dickerson and Castellanos are not RFrs. Give me some Kole in my stocking, Kole Calhoun. He’s a legit RFr (former GG) who’s got some pop in his bat, with a career OPS+ of 105. If he would be interested in a platoon role at age 32, he’d be the perfect complement to Aquino.
It’s a must re-sign for the Cubs. 4/70. Being a client of Scott Boras, Boras will try to get him 130 mil over 5 years. And take him out of Chicago. Boras is always about the money. Not all players are greedy slimbals like him. Plus he’s talentless. He’s bad for baseball. He’s the reason why these ridiculous contracts are given out. Kris Bryant is a free agent in 2 years. He’ll try to get 340 mil for him for 8 years.
Sounds like Andujar‘s future, unfortunately. Permanent DH in the making.
Interesting how Nick was trash when the Tigers had him. Everyone was saying the Tigers couldn’t get anything for him, and now he is somehow a stud. I didn’t realize he hit .800 with 60 HRs in August and September with the Cubs to bring up his three-year totals to .287/.337/.505.
He upped his OPS by over 200 points after the trade and was on a ~50 home run pace… He was substantially better with the Cubs.
And nobody is saying he’s a stud now. He has the same exact flaws that people were pointing out before the trade.
Castellanos is a future Hall of Famer. He is better than people think. His defense will get even better as he continues to settle in to RF. His bat has always been productive and he appears to be really breaking out.
HOF’er…Ha Ha Ha
I know. Laugh. It’s fine. That will make it much more satisfying when I’m right. We’ll know in like 20 years…
HOF’er Ha Ha Ha
What sport?
I’m sure that Castellanos is or will be in the American Heritage High School, the Archbishop McCarthy High School, and the State of Florida sports and baseball Hall of Fames. As for MLB…uh, no.
Reds. 3 years/57M.
To the Yankees for 7/$245. Did I do it right?
Cubs & Castellanos agreed to a deal………..don’t know how long or how much.
That rumor was debunked.
Rather see Corey Dickerson or Shogo, still need LHR & some kind of fill in starter for insurance
For what team?
Reds…and I agree with jock2854…
White Sox 5 years 70M-75M
I can see the Cubs as a player here only if they trade a few guys. I would personally just Trade the platoon that is in CF and move Heyward over there. It is not his best position but he is valuable there.
Bryant traded would be intriguing to me. But I think he stays. Trading Heyward to the Braves for a bad contract on their roster, but I do not think they have one.
Castellanos just does not make much sense for the Cubs financially.
Need to get production out of Heyward, He is the only bad contract for the Cubs in the 2020 season at this point. Everyone else is either done after this year (Lester, Chatwood)
or has decent contracts and managable in the future.
Darvish at 4/81, Kimbrel at 2/30, Bryant at 2/40 or so, Rizzo at 2/36…….
Everyone is bashing the Cubs right now, but they are certainly saving their money to resign or extend players after you lose an additional 40-50 million next offseason.
I think they’d be fools to keep Bryant. There’s bad blood there and his value is only decreasing. Once the decision comes back on one year of control or two, his value will be set and they can move on with good prospects. I’m guessing the league sides with the Cubs on this one, which will be good for their return. As for Bryant, only contenders will be interested, so he goes to a better situation, too. Win-win.
Why is it, every team is making moves, Cubs are doing nothing. Are they trying to emulate Marlins dismantling of team?
Marlins are rebuilding…something you Cubs fans should know more about than any other fan base. Trying to knock the Marlins must be due to you still being bitter about Steve Bartman. Get over it.
Castelanos seems like a decent buy. His defensive limitations caps his earning power. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see the Rays make an offer.
I can’t see the Sox going after Cast. They wouldn’t have bothered with the Mazara trade if they’re going after Cast. They have too many mouths to feed in the DH position to put Mazara or Cast as the full-time DH.
Plus, they need to put the money Cast would demand toward a quality SP. And it would be smart of Hahn to start extending their young core now while they’re still affordable. Yoan, Gio, Robert would be a nice start.