Hyun-Jin Ryu is very arguably the top starter remaining on the free-agent market, though his injury history is a clear red flag despite the southpaw’s dominant showing over the past couple of seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week that Ryu was “expected” to top four years and $80MM on his next contract, but on this morning’s appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show (video link), Rosenthal indicated that multiple teams have since told him they were immediately skeptical of that price point: “I heard from a couple of clubs yesterday that said ’That’s not going to happen — not with that medical history.'”
Certainly, that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a four-year pact for Ryu, but the pushback serves to underscore what makes Ryu such a polarizing free agent. The 32-year-old (33 in March) has a 2.21 ERA over his past 265 innings and a 2.71 ERA in 391 2/3 innings dating back to 2017. On a per-inning basis, he’s among the market’s elite options, but Ryu’s age and injury history likely have some teams steering clear of him on any type of notable multi-year arrangement. It only takes one team to push to four years, but to this point, his realistic price tag is hard to pin down.
More on Ryu and the rest of the pitching market…
- Ryu’s agent Scott Boras, who also represents lefty Dallas Keuchel, chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand about the two free-agent southpaws and (unsurprisingly) offered optimism that a deal could come together in the near future. “Clubs are identifying their needs, and we’re certainly narrowing the corridor of finality,” Boras said with characteristic idiosyncrasy. “It could happen soon.” Meanwhile, Bruce Levine of 670AM The Score/CBS Chicago writes that the White Sox are interested in both Boras lefties, also implying that the team might find it preferable to add a free-agent of that ilk rather than for a one-year rental (e.g. Robbie Ray). The ChiSox are still hopeful of reeling in a rotation upgrade but are wary of surrendering notable young talent for a one-year upgrade.
- The Diamondbacks’ decision to sign Madison Bumgarner wasn’t made as a precursor to a Robbie Ray trade, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Of course, it wouldn’t behoove any general manager to proclaim otherwise, and as Piecoro observes, nothing in Hazen’s comments expressly rules out the possibility of trading Ray, who’ll be a free agent next winter. Arizona moved Paul Goldschmidt under similar circumstances, when he had a year of control remaining and was set to be their second-highest-paid player. (Ray will actually be Arizona’s highest-paid player, given the backloaded nature of Bumgarner’s deal.) The strong demand for pitching and dwindling supply in free agency should make Ray a popular target and could position the D-backs to again pick up a controllable piece or two that’s near the big league level, as was the case in recent trades of Goldschmidt (Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly) and Zack Greinke (Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Josh Rojas).
- Former Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has already made clear he won’t be hanging up his spikes. He’s “receiving interest” from teams, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter, although the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Hernandez may be a former Cy Young winner who sat atop the hierarchy of baseball’s very best pitchers from 2009-14, but his decline into a back-of-the-rotation arm and, more recently, a liability on the mound was rather swift. Over the past two seasons, Hernandez has limped to a dismal 5.82 ERA / 5.44 FIP in 227 1/3 innings. The scintillating heater that averaged nearly 96 mph and scraped triple digits when he debuted as a babyfaced 19-year-old in 2005 has faded to an 89.5 mph average dating back to Opening Day 2018. A pitcher with Hernandez’s preternatural talent shouldn’t be totally counted out, particularly given that he won’t even turn 34 until April, but he’s purely a rebound candidate at this point.
Where’s my Big Sexy Rumors
Saw a clip of him doing leg presses on MLB network today…man-boobs were looking solid. Word is he’s had multiple 5 year deals but he’s focused more on location at this point
Needs to go to the yankees. With CC headed to the great buffet in the retirement park they need someone of his… err… “stature”
Location hasn’t been a big issue for “Big Sexy’ in the last half of his 21-year MLB career unless it involved too much time at el restaurante dominicano.
Ryu is scary.
Might be lucky to get one solid year out of him on a 4 year contract.
More and more teams are now prioritizing not getting stuck with a large long-term contract. Ryu is not a red flag – he’s a 40 foot high blinking red neon sign.
Way, way, way overstated Nearly all of Ryu’s loss of playing time was on account of two major injuries, both of them years behind him now. Outside of that his injury history is not so far out of the ordinary for a starter.
Funny thing about injuries… with age they tend to come back after you and nag you day in and out.
Given the outsized effect a blister or nail issues has on a SP, it more than makes sense that anyone would be weary about multi year commitments to a pitcher of advancing age with that medical file attached.
If he wanted a series of one year deals it’d be a different story
Or you give him a lower base and highly incentivize the deal. Give him something like a 4 year 56 million dollar deal with incentives to hit 80. Give him most of his incentives for making 26-27 starts per year or a certain innings number.
Right in the White Sox wheelhouse. Adept at creative contracts- outvin place a foundation for a win/win agreement
Medical conditions that recur are called chronic. Name one chronic condition for Ryu. Bet you can’t. The point being, every player is an injury risk and just looking at a table of numbers doesn’t make you a doctor, not even on the internet.
Not necessarily true.
One example: a bad sprain, strain, or broken bone heals. But as you age it is not uncommon to feel strong pain in those areas, or, for tissue injuries a relapse without having done much of anything that should’ve caused it… This isn’t a “chronic broken bone” as the bone itself doesn’t actually re-fracture, or you don’t actually re-sprain the joint.. That doesn’t mean the pain you feel from the healed injury is any less real, or, debilitating when it hits.
That only works if nobody else offers him guaranteed money. For a 33 y/o pitcher, $70M guaranteed is better than $56M guaranteed with the possibility of $80M.
Broken bones aren’t a chronic condition, they’re an acute condition. But I suspect you already knew that. The problem here is trying create a chronic health history for player by reaching for connections between injuries that are unconnected (acute). Sure an earlier injury could crop up again, but if it hasn’t happened, it hasn’t happened, and predicting that it will is just guesswork. It is for us, at least. Doctors with access to medical records and with actual knowledge of medicine are far better equipped to make those predictions, and yet even they would admit they are engaging in educated guesswork.
It sounded like a point was made as injuries are not black and white. Generally, after a bone break, the healed bone is stronger. But with sprains and strains, the healing process and forming of scar tissue can be associated with other lasting symptoms. I suspect the UCL repair Ryu had at a young age is what’s leading some FO’s to shy away from a longer deal. How long does the ligament remain in good condition after TJ? That question may be leading FO’s to cool on the idea of Ryu and a 4 year deal.
Lots of pitchers have had full careers after TJ surgeries. They haven’t been full-stop red flags in any case I think recall, at least not years down the road. Four guaranteed years always seemed unlikely for Ryu if only on account of his age so I wasn’t predicting that myself. I just don’t see the big screaming medical issues some do. They think they know everyone they need to know about his medical history only by looking at the numbers of innings he’s pitched over the years. That isn’t enough.
Strasburg has arm history and got 7 years . Cole getting 9 years is ridiculous. Only so many bullets in a arm and when little Cole was pitching his travel team into a championship throwing 1,000 pitches the Yankees weren’t there to see that .
I can’t decide which contract – Strasburg or Cole – will fall apart first. I’m putting my money on Strasburg. I’m thinking year two.
I will always love King Felix, however he should get nothing but minor league offers with invitations to spring training at this point.
Good luck. Was the KING. He dominated the Yankees 9/10 times.
His new walk up music should be king nothing by metallica
Ryu should do the Bauer thing and bet on himself…year by year contract…gets 20 mil this season…does well 30 mil next…if he stays healthy could break any long term deal money wise…if not he is still rich
He would have to have a record setting year to come anywhere close to ever getting $30mil per..
If he had the same year as he did this year I think he comes very close to a one year 30 mil contract
Yeah but you say that because you know he’s not actually that good as compared to the money. So why would he do well to bet on himself like that?
Most people don’t want to look for a new job and a new place to live every single year either. Bauer is an oddball for more than one reason.
Agreed look what Kershaw gets
I don’t see that being the best option for someone with such a checkered past with injuries. If I were him, I’d take the best multi-year deal I could get.
In the Ryu scenario, teams should offer two years with an option, with a base salary of 10M per year, plus incentives that could push it to 20 per season, with the option based on innings in each season. That puts the onus on Ryu to perform but is a base salary that wouldn’t prevent teams from taking a chance on him either. If he is injured in either of the first two years, the option wouldn’t apply.
I like that idea…I’m hoping incentives become a big part of contracts again
20 teams might want to do that, but he wouldn’t and at least one team will offer him 3 at 15-18 per. As a white sox fan i would lean toward keuchel but would take either right now.
Why would Ryu do that? Why would any pitcher?
If the incentive deal is all they can get, they’ll take it or earn nothing.
Kind of how keuchel finally gave up on getting his 200m
Right Ben. You can do an incentive deal but the player has to have a much higher earnings base to make that happen. Ryu is coming off a sub 3 ERA 189 inning season. The injury questions are legitimate but there’s no chance his market craters that low.
It is not all Ryu can get. He may have to settle for three years at $56m or something but he is not going to go for an incentive laden contract. Maeda did that and he has been screwed every year. Ryu watched it happen in LA.
Maeda’s contract is an outlier. He signed it mainly because his medicals were a big red flag. Whatever they showed wasn’t disclosed and have never shown up in his actual performance, but that’s why his contract was structured the way it was. Kershaw’s is more typical “incentive” contract.
Ryu’s career ERA is sub-3.00. He’s coming off a year where led all of MLB starters in ERA, and the year before he had a 1.97 ERA in 15 starts, mostly coming after he recovered from injury.
Yes, Ryu has had injuries. But since recovering from them, he’s been lights out. The only hiccup came this year, when it was almost certain that he needed a breather, which was ultimately played up as a neck issue after a couple bad outings.
Ryu might have that injury history, but his stats since have been what you expect from the best starters in baseball. And given his age, the ideal type of pitcher to excel into his mid to late 30s is probably a control pitcher who doesn’t rely on sheer velocity. That’s exactly what Ryu is: a pitcher with pinpoint control, and one of the best changeups in the game.
I wish the Dodgers would retain him, but I’m not holding my breath.
Exactly. It’s annoying that the Dodgers painted themselves into this corner, but since they have, Ryu becomes the risk worth taking, and he isn’t nearly as much of a risk as many assume. At least, not based on anything we know.
If a team is going to offer $18M and another is going to offer $10M with a chance to hit $20M, which do you think he’d take? Probably the sure thing. I know I would. Point is, the incentivized offer has to be either a pretty sure thing to hit and be more or it has to be significantly more, like $25M max to be all that tempting.
Personally, I don’t really care how much the Sox need to spend to get him or Keuchel. They missed out on elite targets and I don’t want them trading away Madrigal or Vaughn to get Price.
You’re not him. How many major league batters have you struck out in your career?
He already did that last year by accepting the QO.
He isn’t breaking any records for contracts. Even if he has a great year on a 1 year deal, he’d get a similar deal next year. He’s going to be 34-35 in the 2021 season.
He already did that because he had a qualifying offer last year.
Come King Felix, you’ve been dethroned. Time to retire…..
Weak comment.
Felix spent his entire big league career in Seattle. He had some good years there, but times are lean in the Emerald City these days. I doubt he has much, if anything left in the tank.
Depends on what it is that’s in the tank. Oh, he has the energy and competitiveness, but not the pitch command nor the understanding on what he needs to do. He needs to be honest with himself. Retire would be the better option. Go out before it gets worse.
The longer he remains a free agent the more likely it is Ryu will go back to the Dodgers. I believe he is comfortable there and the dodgers are almost forced to make a competitive offer having already missed the boat on the elite options.
I agree. I honestly thought a 3 yr 70 million dollars offer would have gotten him signed. I don’t think I’d offer 4 years north of 100 million for him….
Maybe but last we heard from the player the Dodgers weren’t even talking to him. Something might have been lost in translation but the way he put it didn’t sound very comfortable. It sounded more like perturbed. So that doesn’t bode well.
Very true, but if the price gets low enough I feel like they’ll want to at least make an offer. I do not want them to spend big to re sign him but if the AAV comes down to $15 million he could be a steal
DBacks signing of MadBum seems more like insurance in the event Ray doesn’t stay while also adding appeal to keep him. Hazen did good here I think.
White Sox should offer Boras 4 years $140M for both Ryu & Keuchel.
One of my favorite players of all time! Big thick bat with a tremendous wide handle, a short quick swing, made contact and hit to all fields.
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If the White Sox throw away that money, then they’re in Padres-Cubs-Phillies territory.
Fox had that big wad of chewing tobacco too, I think he ended up on the Mets in the expansion draft. And I think the Sox should circle the wagons for now. Four years to Ryu or Keuchel not a good idea. I think Sox should wait and hopefully someone or two already on the staff might step up.
Not to the Mets. Stayed with the Sox and did his last 2 years with the Astros, mentoring Joe Morgan who had grown up a Nellie Fox fan (even used the same bat initially).
In his way, Nellie was Pete Rose before there was a Pete Rose. A singles hitter with limited ability that worked hard to get everything he could out of his ability and hustled every day. A smart ballplayer that did whatever he could to help his team win each game. Gold Glove 2B. Retired with a .288 BA and a .348 OBP – decent for a guy that was a slow runner so he couldn’t get many infield singles or bunt hits. The 3rd toughest player to K in MLB history.
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I lost it when I first saw Juan Soto come up with the Nationals in 2018. With 2 strikes he choked up on the bat, spread his stance out, and shortened his swing to just make contact and put the ball in play to any of the 3 fields. That is unheard of today – particularly from a 19 year-old that also has power.
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Nellie taught me how valuable a high baseball IQ player could be to a team. Used to be lots of guys like him and Billy Martin and Junior Gilliam around. Seldom see any now. Tommy Edman of the Cardinals bears watching.
Thanks Vandals. And didn’t Fox miss the HOF in his last year of eligibility by one vote?
Those three you mentioned were more very good solid players than stars. But good managers want them because they never gave away anything and always seemed to find ways to help beat you. Not many of the breed around any more..
Quoting seasoned baseball scribe Keanu: “Nellie. Whoa.”
Nellie Fox was actually a Houston Colt .45 in 1964, his last full season in MLB. He became an Astro for his last 21 big league games in 1965 when the team changed its name and moved into the Astrodome.
I’ve frequently compared White Sox 2B prospect Nick Madrigal to Fox. The diminutive Madrigal shares many of Fox attributes including a high contact bat, a Gold Glove caliber mitt and an extremely high baseball IQ. Madrigal will debut as the White Sox core 2B in 2020 and remind us older White Sox fans of ‘Little Nel’ at the plate and on the field.
Madrigal is a ‘throwback’ player who would make for the perfect prototypical #2 grunt hitter in a more traditional batting order, one I’m hoping manage Rick Renteria will utilize in the coming years. Unlike Fox, Madrigal has a plus run tool which should allow him to steal 20+ bases each year in addition to being a perennial candidate for the AL batting title and Gold Glove award.
2 votes, actually
Nellie is a HOFer.
As a dodgers fan I love Ryu but I wouldn’t give the guy a big 4 year deal or longer. No way. He is most likely gonna break down. Every single season he has time on the DL being hurt and there was at one point it looked like he might not even pitch again. He could give you 2 years maybe but I see him breaking down after 2 season. I love the guy, would love to have him back but don’t blame them if they don’t want to bring him back at 4 years or more.
As good as he’s been recently, it’s hard to fathom Hyun-Jin Ryu receiving a guaranteed 4-year contract from any team. It appears the market will dictate a 3-year deal with the likelihood of a vesting option option based on GS, IP and/or time off the IL. Perhaps Ryu also settles for a 2-3 year higher AAV deal with the ever popular player-opt out after a season or two. With Scott Boras as his agent that could turn into a ‘swellopt’.
Either arrangement could work for a team like the White Sox who need a veteran anchor in 2020 but might have a rotation full of capable young power arms by 2021 or 2022 with better luck from the health department.
King Felix on a minor league deal to the Yanks. Let’s get me done Cash Ninja
Marlins more likely. Yanks are too smart to waste a roster spot.
The King will be back as a reliever…
.01% percent happening, but it would be so fun to see King Felix be the #4 or #5 starter in Philly, or maybe even a closer for a contender.
He doesn’t have closer stuff.
Arte Moreno may get desperate the closer to Spring Training his team gets. If Eppler hasnt gotten anyone within a couple of weeks I bet he offers Ryu that 4th year
Not enough years for arte… he prefers his overpay bad contracts to have more of a crippling effect, either in dollars or years.
Maybe if it had to be 4 years, he could go 4/115m just for the dollar value impact. Otherwise, maybe more 6/120 would be up his alley.
Or maybe Eppler will go after Chance Adams given the familiarity with his scouting & minor league history? Probably not outside the realm of possibility for Angels to him a lifeline to the majors.
4 years as follows: 2 year guaranteed w/incentives to boost his potential pay (say each around 14 M with incentives bringing it to 20 M), year three player option at higher guarantee (22 M?), year 4 team option similar amount (20 M to account for regression?). A little different slant. Gives Ryu one more time to try another multiyear deal before he is ancient, if he wants to opt out after 2 yrs. If he opts in, team has a safety valve for year 4. If he is healthy and effective, win-win. Doesn’t eliminate risk, but seems sensible. He has demonstrated sustained excellence when healthy. That’s worth something.
If year 3 isn’t a vesting player option, it’s throwing good money after bad.
Can see your point. Numbers I suggested could be off for this case. The take I had on it was simply whether Ryu at his age would want to take one last (probably) dive into the FA market or not for year 3. Knowing the team carries the option on year 4 would make the bet interesting.
Ryu should just sign with the Dodgers and get it over with.
“Ryu should just sign with the White Sox and get it over with.”
I agree
I came here looking for an update on Ray King, but sadly there is none.
King Felix is washed. As long as he keeps pitching like he has that 95 MPH fastball there’s absolutely no fixing him. At this point is it even worth trying? Why wouldnt you spend that time to on a guy half his age? He clearly hasn’t been interested in trying to change in Seattle. The upside if he does change his pitching style is pretty limited anyway.
Completely agree, jbigz.
I could see Felix going to Pittsburgh or Texas. Both clubs have a way of reinvigorating vets to performing well again.
Wondering if Mike Elias would offer King Felix a Minor League, make-good offer w the Orioles.
Félix is nothing but an old name. His statcast data from the last 3 years is horrific. And it’s getting worse each year. You’d be signing a name and not a player. There’s really no logical reason to sign a declining 34 year old. It’ll be Chris Tillman 2.0. The Orioles should be in on just about any starter but I seriously hope we can sign someone better to eat innings.
Sox need Ryu
Phillies would be wise to take a shot on King Felix, especially since the cost will be minimal. A trade for Robbie Ray would help, and since he’s a FA at season’s end, he won’t garner a top 3 prospect in return.
I’m OK with Eflin as our 4th or 5th SP. However, I’ve had and still do harbor deeply rooted doubts about Velasquez or Pivetta ever being a quality SP. Both, with their heat, should be full effort one inning relievers.
Funny how I keep hearing about Ryu’s injury history and age blah blah blah.
In 2016, Rich Hill signed a 3-yr contract for $48 mil at the age of 36 and long history of injuries. I didn’t hear much of the same rumblings as I do now with Ryu.
Do teams really not think of a possibility of players getting injured when they are signed for a long contract? For example, Gerrit Cole’s contract will run until he’s 37, much older than Ryu’s age right now and with much higher salaries. Teams had no problem taking the risk.
When a player is good, he will most likely get what he wants.
Good point.
Plus, Ryu will probably age better, because he has never been a high K/9 guy. He pitches to contact. Those type of players can play into their late 30s easy.
Correction: Yasmany Tomas is the DBacks’ highest paid player
Are the Angels going to get pitching or what?
Steve, you forgot to mention my favorite prospect that the D’Backs got in the Greinke trade. His name is Seth Beer. DH/1B type. Rather than play his Senior year of high school, he enrolled early at Clemson and they let him run around Left Field. Dude can mash.
Steve, you also failed to mention the return for Goldschmidt included Andy Young and a Competitive Round B pick #75 which turned out to be Dominic Fletcher CF out of Arkansas. Although Fletcher is not a Major League ready piece, both Beer and Young are virtually Major League ready. Both are projected to join the big club this year. And, as a side note, Martin is rehabbing from TJS, so the very best case scenario is a September cameo appearance this year, making him not so much a Major League ready piece as Young and Beer. Fans can be sloppy with details like this, but reporters shouldn’t be.
If the Sox really do not want to part with their prospects then it is likely an overpay on the FA front. It is only money (yes I know I’m talking about JR) vs prospects and taking on someones contract anyway. If the Sox are serious about contending they really need to get a top line type pitcher at least to help with guys like Giolito. The remaining FA guys are not spectacular, but neither is trading for a guy who likely is not good enough or the team trading him would keep him for their playoff hopes.
Just Curious, does anyone see this young pitching staff gaining any benefit from signing Ryu? I mean I can see it with Keuchel not so much with Ryu
PHA
Having The King here in Seattle I can tell you that many games he pitched were boring if you want at least some offense. At his peak he was so dominating but as most true fans know he got no support from his team amazingly often. I believe he holds the record, at least in his era, of quality starts either without a decision or a loss. Seemingly so many 1-0 & 2-1 losses for The King. Someone did the math and determined he should be sitting on at least 200 wins right now instead of 169. 200 might get him into the Hall of Fame but 169 might not. Too bad because he’s been incredible.