In news that slipped under the radar when it was announced, former top Astros prospect AJ Reed has announced his retirement. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle highlights the decision and analyzes it from the perspective of his former organization.
Reed, a former second-round pick, was once considered one of the game’s premium hitting prospects. He showed an intriguing blend of power and patience on his way up the farm. Reed generally made loud contact and plenty of it, with hefty batting averages on balls in play and unconcerning strikeout rates.
When he debuted with the ’Stros in 2016, Reed seemed quite likely to hit in the majors. After all, he mashed at every level on his way there. The real question was whether he’d do so enough to be a highly valuable player, given his limitations on the field (first base only) and on the bases.
As it turns out, there was a bigger problem lurking. Reed’s strikeout rate had ticked up a bit at Triple-A in 2016. It exploded in the majors. As it turned out, he’d end up taking 199 total plate appearances at the game’s highest level, carrying a 14.2% swinging-strike rate and 35.7% strikeout rate. Reed’s power stroke never played, either. All told, his career batting line sits at an awful .149/.241/.234.
The Astros gave Reed lengthy stints at Triple-A in hopes he’d find his groove. While he was still an above-average hitter there in 2017 and 2018, the trajectory didn’t trend back up. Per Rome, “his weight and conditioning were often problems.” The Houston ultimately gave up hope last year after watching Reed struggle at the highest level of the minors.
Reed landed with the White Sox on a waiver claim, with the rebuilding organization hoping a change of scenery might help. Instead, he struck out in more than four of every ten plate appearances he took at the MLB and Triple-A levels. Reed was outrighted from the 40-man roster in August.
Despite the obvious difficulties, it remains a bit surprising to see Reed hang up his spikes at just 26 years of age. No doubt some organization would’ve been willing to invest resources in hopes of spurring a turnaround. Then again, it’s understandable that Reed would prefer to move on after experiencing such a frustrating turn of fortunes. MLBTR wishes him the best in his future pursuits.
and that’s why you never invest in power-first prospects.
Because AJ Reed failed? It’s worked out nicely for Gallo, Alvarez, Bryant, Rizzo, Olson, Gary, Stanton etc.
again, most of these guys developed power. Alvarez hit only 1 home run during his 73 games in the Serie Nacional but hit .351 in his final year. and we cant count Stanton here id say because he’s simply a freak of nature. my point is if you take someone who already has the power and bank purely on the power over other skills, you’re bound to end up with a player who has neither. i will at least grant you Gallo here, he is an exception.
I wonder if Reed would have done better if he took his conditioning seriously. I mean 6’4″ and weighing 275 lbs, good God!
the linked article states his conditioning was an issue when he was with the Astros
I doubt it changed in Chicago
Hence why he said he wonders if he took it more seriously. Read the entire comment before retorting.
I’m not even talking about his conditioning, or lack thereof. My original comment was about pointing out Reed’s actual physical size.
Absolutes when it comes to projecting talent is a really dumb idea. Some prospects fail, other’s don’t. Some guys have the capability to develop, other’s don’t. Whether it is mental or physical, there are going to be limitations we cannot predict. For every Reed, there is a Gallo. By your estimation, Eloy is going to fail. There are plenty contact 1st prospects that struggle in the Show, as well as speed 1st prospects, and defense 1st prospects. Cherry picking one guy as an example to exclude all other guys similar to him is pretty bigoted.
to compare Eloy here just proves that you’re incorrect in your estimation of his skillset. Eloy’s HR hitting ability actually lagged behind his other skills a bit while climbing though the minors. perfect example of how power can develop, but isnt always there at the start. however, it seems a lot of these guys whose calling cards were already power don’t do quite as well.
DarkSide… Scouts don’t go to the games to scout stats… Eloy’s power was lagging behind when it came to games, but it was never in doubt from a scouting stance.
Did you know Eloy was forbidden to participate in preseason HR derbies when he was in A ball to give other players a chance to compete against each other?
Eloy was 100% a power first prospect, that was, and still is, his #1 tool.
You are both correct. Eloy Jimenez’ top tool is his power but his second best is his hit tool with both being plus to plus/plus. Few young players have possessed the elite combination of the hit and power tools that Jimenez has. He was already being compared to Giancarlo Stanton early on in his young career. Later on when Jimenez began bulking up his three other tools suffered but his top two got better to the point where he is considered to have superstar potential despite less than average skills as a runner, thrower and fielder.
In my opinion, Jimenez will become a generational hitter over the next decade with the White Sox akin to Stanton or Manny Ramirez, hopefully with less of the former’s injury history and none of the latter’s baggage that included PED concerns and a goofy demeanor. Thus far, Jimenez has demonstrated some injury issues throughout his young career but also has a personality that might be an even bigger plus than his hit and power tools. He’s already become a fan favorite on Chicago’s Southside with a perpetually infectious grin that could make him MLB’s next ‘Mr. Smile’ along with Francisco Lindor.
Not to mention, Eloys work ethic, his intuitive grasp for the game, his cheerful demeanor and athletic build- all suggest a toolsy player with the capacity to adapt and counter-react to the inevitable game of adjustments. Helps to have the likes of Jose and Yoan as role models
I wouldn’t even consider Gallo and Reed to have been similar prospects. Gallo had huge K issue and certainly wasn’t as good of a pure hitter as Reed. Though obviously Gallo was a much better athlete who could play a couple positions…..I thought for sure that Reed’s profile would hold up as a major leaguer. It just didn’t. Conditioning was a problem and he never made it back after scuffling in his first taste of the bigs.
But as far as a minor league profile goes. Reed’s was looking pretty good as he was climbing the prospect lists. He was closer to a Rhys Hoskins in the minors than he ever was Joey Gallo.
Yeah, a lot scouting reports gave Reed a 60 future hit tool along with 65-70 power so he was considering a dynamic offensive prospect making Darkside’s comments even more wrong.
again, im not trying to say Reed couldnt hit. what i am saying was that it was supposed to be his hallmark tool, and so, id for any skill, he was drafted for his power. Reed wasnt 1-dimensional, but was still better regarded for his power. (even if his tools were close in regard) My point is players regarded for their power first and foremost tend to seem to fail quite frequently.
Maybe 10 years ago. The game has never been better for power prospects in all of the years I’ve followed baseball with the launch-angle, three true outcomes phase of baseball. A lot of people would argue that this is the exact time to invest in power.
that’s exactly why its not true. with the launch angle revolution, even the average player can hit for power. in spite of this, we dont see guys who previously had 50 HR potential hitting 60, 70, 80, etc. the power revolution shows that many can hit for power and that one-dimensional sluggers arent all that valuable when you have a Bellinger or Yelich who can hit 40 and a high average.
Dumb dumb dumb comment. AJ reed absolutely raked when he was climbing up prospects lists. Go take a look at his batting averages/OBP from the beginning of his career. The dude ended up regressing and could never make the ML jump. It happens.
To suggest he was an All or nothing minor league prospect was just completely wrong. He routinely had a low 20% K rate, drew walks, and hit around .290. Hardly a power first guy.
I guess we have to agree to disagree here. AJ Reed seems to be a case of poor discipline (personal discipline, not plate discipline) rather than lack of skills. If a power hitter is good enough to rise in the draft, he’s clearly got to have some sort of hit tool. They are as good of a bet as any to succeed.
im not saying he didnt have the ability to hit for average. Reed hit beyond .400 in college if i remember correctly. my thing it was his power above all else that was considered elite, and probably the biggest factor in how high he was drafted. i dont mean to say Reed was 1-dimensional – he was far from it. what i mean is there is a weird correlation that forms in guys who are drafted for power and either not developing it or washing out completely.
Don’t invest in power pitchers either. They might hurt their arm.
Lol the Mets know a thing or 2 about that… But to be fair… The Cubs refrained from drafting power arms and instead they’ve been drafting pitchers with repeatable deliveries, command and pitch-ability and that hasn’t worked out for them, they haven’t really drafted and developed any pitching since Theo took over.
Read Jeff Passan’s “The Arm”. Nothing in pitching is guaranteed. Free and easy gets hurt just as frequently as hurky-jerky.
Yup. Mark Prior says hi.
Who?
I guess he needed to study the trash can
Very original.
And still valid.
he only had 6 AB’s in 2017
Lol that’s how he made “loud contact”
Awww this makes me sad. Reed was one of my favorite guys to come through Reno in Triple-A. I still remember being the only guy cheering and giving a standing-o after he hit a grand slam off the Aces. I will miss him, but wish him the best!
Last place you want to go to “turn around” your career.
hes a 1st ballot..heard it here first
Very mean comment coming from a Cheatros fan. Are you #1 in your career?
Scott is that CFA for chartered financial analyst? I see your name pop up on the comment section and I was curious.
If I remember correctly, he was also a top pitching prospect at Kentucky. I’m surprised he didn’t try pitching before he retired.
If I remember correctly, he was also a solid pitching prospect at Kentucky. I’m surprised he didn’t try pitching before he retired, but under the circumstances, it makes sense.
Still hitting better than Chris Davis
A former co-worker played AA with Mike Piazza, he hit .206, Piazza hit .377. He also retired at 26. No regrets.
Your coworker, however, was obviously not a top prospect.
neither was Piazza
not at first, but he gained a degree of regard pretty quickly. sometimes evaluators miss at first.
Piazza was drafted in like the 60th round, as a favor for Lasorda who I think was his god father or something. Piazza was sent out to winter ball early on, came back with a different body and the rest is history.
Sounds like John Deutsch… Even though he wasn’t a professional top prospect, he was a 5th round pick, which is a great accomplishment in itself… He hit a career.276 in the minors, which is not bad either.
That was also the year Mike Piazza took off and made it to the bigs.
It was John Deutsch, he was a big guy, and a really good guy as well. We worked together for awhile in the 90’s. He held the Division 3 career home run record for awhile.
I’m going to assume this is the co-worker?
Link: baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=deu…
If Reed is retired, who will Battle Royale players use as a common power bat off the bench?
Assuming that Chris Davis didn’t already pop up in your draft.
Ian Happ… Dominic Smith?
Or Draft Shohei Ohtani, no need to pinch hit for him.
Hahn opted to give A.J. Reed a long look as opposed to his own guys Yermin Mercedes. Another major flaw in Hahn’s development approach.
Reed had a much higher ceiling and prospect pedigree than Mercedes, though.
Good luck to Mercedes now.
Yermin Mercedes is 3 months older than A.J. Reed. He began the 2019 season at AA Birmingham and had just been promoted to AAA Charlotte two weeks before the White Sox claimed a more accomplished Reed on waivers from the Astros on July 8, 2019. Mercedes profiles as a high OPS right-handed hitter. Reed was a high OPS lefty bat, something the White Sox lacked in 2019 and still have a shortage of as we post.
Mercedes is also a catcher, a position the White Sox still hope he can at least play as an emergency backup if and when he makes his MLB debut. Clearly Mercedes forte is is hitting and power but he could still stand to improve his defense enough at C and 1B to where he can be a backup in addition to potentially taking over DH duties from Edwin Encarnacion at some point in time.
Aaron I don’t even know why you entertained that. Yermin Mercedes was as much of a white Sox “guy” as AJ Reed was. He wasn’t drafted nor developed by the White Sox. He was a 2018 minor league rule 5 pickup from the Orioles.
Mercedes has been with the WS organization longer than Nick Madrigal, and had a phenomenal season at the plate last year. Rather than give a shot to someone in the system who was taking, Hahn took yet another flier on a one-trick left-handed slugger who had been released by another team. And they never gave a chance to Mercedes last year, despite the glaring hole at DH.
If given the chance, maybe Mercedes does enough to convince them he could serve as the DH, and allows them to spend money on other positions. Hahn’s roster management has been as abysmal as his drafting and player development.
Yup. Giant, stupid mistake. It’d be different if Mercedes was young and they were worried about his service time, but he’s already in his mid-20’s. There was absolutely no reason to have AJ Reed and Wellington Castillo getting at-bats over him at the end of the season.
Career ERA of 0.00.
Fat and lazy, which is why he’s retiring now instead of putting in work when he’s still young.
Shut you piehole, loser.
Maybe he’s retiring from baseball to work on his conditioning/maybe come back as a potential two way player. Remember when Rob Whalen retired to focus on his mental health?
Bang! Buzz! Karma.