It wasn’t long ago that the Yankees possessed what looked like a surefire elite rotation on paper. They signed superstar Gerrit Cole for a record $324MM during the offseason, and the plan was for him to lead a group with two other front-end starters (Luis Severino and James Paxton) and a pair of established complements (Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ). Sadly for the Yankees, though, the injury troubles that dogged them throughout last season haven’t relented in the new year. They’ve already lost Severino for 2020 after he underwent Tommy John surgery last week. That means this will be the second straight lost year for the electrifying Severino, who was essentially robbed of a 2019 on the mound because of shoulder and lat problems. The oft-injured Paxton will sit out until May or June as a result of back surgery, meanwhile, and the Yankees will also go without the services of Domingo German for 63 games because of a domestic violence suspension.
The Yankees have known for a while there would be no German to begin the season, but the Severino and Paxton injuries are sizable, unexpected shots to their rotation. They’re now facing multiple question marks in their starting staff after Cole, Tanaka and Happ, at least until Paxton and German come back (judging by his 2019, even Happ’s no lock to offer decent production). It seems lefty Jordan Montgomery is the odds-on favorite to begin 2020 as the Yankees’ No. 4 starter. If the Yankees get the 2017 version of Montgomery who held his own as a rookie, they’ll be in fine shape. But Montgomery combined for just 31 1/3 major league innings from 2018-19 (four last season) in the wake of Tommy John surgery on his left elbow, so no one really knows what he’ll provide going forward.
Cole, Tanaka, Happ and Montgomery aside, who else could open the season in the Yankees’ top five? Let’s examine several of the candidates vying for the role this spring…
Leading Contenders:
- Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP: With his 96 mph fastball, Loaisiga can be electric, but the 25-year-old hasn’t had much success going deep in games during a small amount of major league starts. Furthermore, control has been a problem for Loaisiga since he debuted in 2018. While Loaisiga has fanned upward of 11 hitters per nine across 56 1/3 innings (24 appearances, eight starts), a 4.47 BB/9 has helped lead to an unspectacular 4.79 ERA/4.33 FIP.
- Clarke Schmidt, RHP: The 24-year-old, hard-throwing Schmidt has never pitched above the Double-A level, but he’s a recent first-round pick (2017) who has opened eyes with five innings of one-run, six-strikeout ball this spring. That’s not much of a sample size, but Schmidt has impressed at multiple minor league levels since undergoing TJ surgery in his draft year. He currently ranks as the Yankees’ second-best prospect at Baseball America, which writes that he has the “ceiling of a midrotation starter.”
- Deivi Garcia, RHP: Speaking of high-end prospects, Garcia’s right in line with Schmidt when it comes to promising Yankees farmhands (BA has him third in the team’s system). Although he’s undersized at 5-foot-9, 163 pounds, that didn’t prevent Garcia from reaching Triple-A ball at the age of 20 last year. It didn’t go well (5.40 ERA/5.77 FIP in 40 innings), but it’s hard to get down on someone so young for struggling at the highest level of the minors. With that in mind, though, it may be too ambitious to expect him to be ready for the majors in a few weeks.
- Mike King, RHP: King’s yet another prospect (New York’s 13th-best at BA), though he does carry a bit of MLB experience, having made one appearance and thrown two innings with the Yankees last September. That made for a good ending to the season for King, whom the Yankees acquired from the Marlins in a notable trade in 2017, after a stress fracture limited him to fewer than 50 professional frames in 2019. The 24-year-old thrived in the minors the year before, however.
- Chad Bettis, RHP: Bettis, whom the Yankees signed to a minor league contract just over two weeks ago, brings the most experience to the table of anyone in the mix. The 30-year-old appeared in 164 games and started 92 with the Rockies from 2013-19, during which he was fairly successful at times (specifically from 2015-16). Bettis is now coming off a rough season that he mostly spent in Colorado’s bullpen, as he pitched to a 6.08 ERA/5.16 FIP and struck out fewer than six batters per nine over 63 2/3 innings before undergoing hip surgery in August. On the bright side, he did post his highest average fastball velocity in years (93 mph) and log a tremendous 60.2 percent groundball rate.
- Luis Cessa, RHP: Like Bettis, Cessa’s an elder statesman relative to most of this bunch. The 27-year-old has 86 games and 19 starts under his belt in the majors, where he has amassed 232 innings. Cessa throws hard (upward of 94 mph), but it hasn’t translated to big-time results as a member of the Yankees, with whom he owns a 4.50 ERA/4.98 FIP. After spending last season in the bullpen, it seems he’s ticketed for a similar role this year, meaning his chances of earning the fifth spot in New York’s rotation appear quite slim.
Other Possibilities?
If the Yankees aren’t content to roll with this group until Paxton and German return, perhaps they’ll scour the trade, free-agent and/or waiver markets (alternatively, they could deploy an opener such as Chad Green). They’ve already shown interest in Mets lefty Steven Matz, but a deal between the two New York rivals looks like a long shot. We also explored some other potential trade targets for the Yankees last week, but those hurlers admittedly look as if they make more sense as in-season targets. And while free agency looks to be devoid of impact arms at this point, maybe it wouldn’t hurt to take a low-risk flier on a veteran(s) who’s still seeking an opportunity.
Even with the injuries n suspension, the NYY rotation is still strong n with their hitting n fielding they will be bull dozing over the AL. Me a RS fan will sit out this yr, and other than to see Nate rebound it will be the only bright light.
That rotation is horrific outside Cole. They will be fine but definitely not bull dozing the decent AL teams.
Tanaka is not horrific.
He’s not? Well, ok.
You think Tanaka is horrific? Lmao. Trolling or clueless?
He’s not bad but he is definitely not a 2 starter in a championship rotation.
Billy. Best thing you can do with someone trolling. Or someone that stupid is just not even respond . Trolls feed off if responses …and morons dont understand logic so having a discussion with them is like banging your head against a wall
Tanaka is a horrific #2 starter for the supposed “ALE favorites”
Don’t ya think, Billy Boy?
Oh please an 8 game sample size. David Price had a narrative on him too and it can flip fast. Its almost as if judging playoff sample sizes is dumb. Its not really about Tanaka. JA Happ is their 3 starter that says enough. The Yankees roation is not in a good place and anyone but delusional New Yorkers can see it.
A pitcher that’s 31 years old and went 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA on a team that won 100+ games cannot get you excited. The likelihood of him improving on those numbers is slim at best
Your rotation is excellent. Not every pitcher can be a Cole, but they are very good. And with their hitting n fielding they are unstoppable. Now if Cole were to lose the yr then it won’t be as good, but even still good enuff to win the ALCS.
And they would’ve won if Houston didn’t cheat.
Cashman should be able to swing a trade to the mexican baseball league team Bartolo Colon is pitching for.
use the word and not “n”
Absolutely ridiculous post.
Until Stanton and Judge actually play in some games, I dont know how good the lineup will be.
Even with 2 major injuries and a 60 game suspension for another… The Yanks still have much better options for their 4th and 5th spot than the Red Sox who’ve only lost one starter to Injury. Shows how important a farm system and pitching depth in general is. Yanks are still #1 contender in the AL East regardless of the injuries they’ve sustained.
Don’t forget the Rays who are the actual competition in that decision
Cessa will be used out of the pen. I think Loasisga and King will get it.
Idk if Loaisiga’s arm would hold up. Dude could be elite in relief tho. I think Bettis might be their safest bet.
I rather give michael king a shot. And betis maybe start the season as the 8th man in the pen or in the scranton rotation. King is going to be a GOOD major league starter . Think jeff suppan, Danny neagle type
Montgomery and Loaisaga will be the 4th and 5th starters until Paxton and German return
I think king will be the number 5 . Personally I rather never see German in a Yankees uniform again. Guy is total scum
Rays will win the AL East
They are battling to just stay healthy not a rotation spot
Yankees prospects are bottom 10 regardless of what Yankee fan, Keith Law says. That’s going to hurt them if they need to trade (likely) for that 3rd/4th starter + as the season goes on.
Andujar and Frazier are not prospects and could be traded, and neither are the rest of their pitchers in this article. They would give them a better pitcher if needed.
You think Law is a Yankees fan? Do you have some kind of inferiority complex?
Past yankees top 30 prospects have brought back solid major league players the last 5 6 years
Aaron hicks
Didi gregorius
Martin pardo
Luke voit
Mike tauchman
What the hell even is this? Aaron Hicks was traded for JR Murphy. He was a major leaguer. Mike Tauchman was a nothing prospect….
I don’t even know where to begin
Was Tauchman not DFA’d and claimed off of waivers anyways?
@JDGoat
No Tauchman was a straight trade with COL. Yankees gave up Phillip Diehl after he (Diehl) had a solid spring. As a Yankee fan I still don’t know how to classify that, either damn good scouting and a steal or more great luck on Cashman’s part. Maybe a bit of both.
Chase Anderson should be a trade option
Please take Anderson, Yankees. Anderson for a PTBNL.
I’m thinking the pen is out of gas again down the stretch.
The Yankees have an easy schedule up front and not many games where they will need a 5th starter. With that, they will probably carry an extra bullpen arm and go with an opener with an occasional Scranton Shuttle start from King or maybe even Garcia since those two are already on the 40 man roster.
I’d prefer to see Schmidt in the 5th spot for now, but with all of the on and of the IL moves coming up in the first half the Yankees might not want to put him on the 40 man roster until it is absolutely necessary.
This seems the most logical outcome
I’d like to see more on other teams not named Yankees , Angels, Astros, Dodgers , Red Sox
Plz and thank you MLBTR.. beating a dead horse with this one .. everyone knows the Yankees rotation situation.
We get it.
Where’s Chance Adams? A couple years ago he was a future ace. He must be close to ready.
Traded to the Royals after being DFA’d.
Bruce: thank you for the joke.
BBB: thank you for context that really hammers home the punchline.
The Yankees projected OD starting rotation of: Cole, Tanaka, Happ, Montgomery and either King or Schmidt is more than strong enough to get the Yankees through the first month or 2 of the season until Paxton and German return in May and June at the latest. Keep in mind it’s not just about the starting rotation the Yankees bullpen of: Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, Kahnle, Green, Loaisiga, Cessa and either Holder or Kriske is one of the best and strongest in the ML’s.
That bullpen is ridiculous, still don’t wanna see them taxed early. Yankees were really good at making sure no one ever went three days in a row last year(underrated accomplishment right there).
Might be hard this year
the use of performance-enhancing drugs tends to lead to a lot of injuries. If the Yankees would clean up their act and stop cheating they would stop suffering from injuries. This is karma. The Yankees are getting everything they deserve
If PEDs lead to injuries, you realize they do not enhance performance… Also, take a look at the PED era, those guys were playing 150+ games a year for a decade or more. So, by the same logic, Barry Bonds was as clean as a whistle, since, yunno, he never got hurt.
There have been no failed PED tests for the Yankees in over a decade. If the Yankees are slipping through, so is everyone else.
When were Arod’s failed tests?
Should of said Yankees rota…….
Cessa should be cut. Loaisiga has shown that he can’t throw even 100 innings. Both should go to/ be in the pen permanently. Montgomery is the obvious 4th starter pick. Personally, I think King is the most ready to step into a major league rotation. Schmidt has looked good and Garcia was a fast riser, but both of them clearly need more upper level experience before seriously being considered MLB ready
Andujar & Frazier for Boyd. Matthew is an efficient affordable player, especially if Tanaka walks next year. Andujar and Frazier would start day 1 in Comerica.
I’m not sold on Boyd and I have loved Miggy since he was in the low minors. However, you have a point even though you excluded Paxton. I hope Frazier learned from last year. The kid has talent.
Tanaka may not be a #2 on a “championship rotation” but he has pitched like a number 1 in the post season. In 8 starts, he’s 5-3 with a 1.78 ERA and a microscopic 0.783 WHIP. This is in 46 innings too. Not exactly Andy Pettite innings total, but not a insignificant sample either. Championship staffs have dudes who can pitch in high pressure games. So far, Tanaka has more than proven to be a big game pitcher.
You should add Nick Tropeano to this list, no?
Let me be the first (I think I’m the first, but maybe not) to predict Cole will be marginal at best. I’d hate to say he’ll be a bust, but not far off. Why? Cole is good when he doesn’t have to be “the man”, the #1 starter. He was good on the Pirates when AJ Burnett was there & Francisco Litiano the first time. In between for a year he had to be “the man” & couldn’t handle it.wjined for not pitching the WC game vs. the Reds, the following year he got the nod vs the Cubs & Jake Arrieta. Cole was gone by the 3rd OT 4th inning; even Arrieta hit him. In Houston, he had Verlander ahead of him. Cole doesn’t have the psychy to be the man, the #1, the go-to-guy. He will struggle.
Couple of corrections or clarifications; first, I said Cole was gone by the 3rd or (spellcheck put OT instead of or), & Cole actually lasted 5 innings. Secondly I said even Arrieta hit him; but he went 0-2 with 2 K’s. Sorry I didn’t check first, but doesn’t change my prediction.