We at MLBTR have been doing head-to-head comparisons of some of baseball’s elite prospects in recent weeks. Let’s keep it going with a pair of the minors’ top young outfielders, the Mariners’ Jarred Kelenic and the Braves’ Cristian Pache. The two would have been National League East rivals had the Mets not traded Kelenic (we’ve covered their 2018 blockbuster with the Mariners extensively of late; see: here, here and here), but it wasn’t to be. Kelenic now looks like a tremendous building block for the long-suffering Mariners, while Pache could amount to the latest homegrown Braves great.
Kelenic was the sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft, and there now seems to be an almost unanimous belief that he is the game’s 11th-best prospect. Each of MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs place him in that position, after all. The power-hitting 20-year-old climbed to the Double-A level for the first time last season, his debut campaign in the Seattle organization, and batted .253/.315/.542 with six home runs in 92 plate appearances. Not necessarily extraordinary numbers on paper, nor was it a huge sample size, but that line was an impressive 33 percent better than the league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. Speaking of FanGraphs, their own Eric Longenhagen wrote just two weeks ago of Kelenic, “He’s much more stick than glove, but Kelenic looks like an All-Star center fielder who’s rapidly approaching Seattle.” The upside’s definitely there for Kelenic, like fellow Mariners outfield prospect Julio Rodriguez, to help the Mariners escape the mire in the coming years.
Unlike the M’s, the Braves have enjoyed quite a bit of success in recent years. They’re back-to-back NL East champions who probably aren’t going away in the near future, considering the vast amount of talent they possess. And it appears to be only a matter of time before they get a look at Pache, who just turned 21 a few months ago and could someday join the amazing Ronald Acuna Jr. (and maybe fellow prospect Drew Waters) as an indispensable part of the Braves’ outfield. For now, the experts at Baseball America (No. 12), MLB.com (No. 13) and FanGraphs (No. 20) say Pache is among baseball’s 20 premier prospects. Pache was terrific last year in Double-A, where he hit .278/.340/.474 (134 wRC+) with 11 homers in 433 PA, but wasn’t quite as powerful in his initial taste of Triple-A action (.274/.337/.411 with a single HR over 105 PA). However, as Longenhagen suggested a couple months back, Pache won’t need to post all-world offensive numbers to make a notable impact in the bigs, as he possesses tremendous upside as a defender.
Kelenic and Pache could eventually turn into two of the top center fielders in the game, but their styles are different. Kelenic seems to be more of a force at the plate, while defense looks like Pache’s forte. Which one would you rather have? (Poll link for app users)
Kelenic offensive upside is so much higher than pache. Most teams would rather Kelenic
Sometimes the hype has to be proven.
The AFL shows he still has a lot of weaknesses.
Matters the team.
Kelenic as of right now has more value as a trade chip IMO.
Not good for Seattle because they need MLB production
True
101% disagee. The Mariners window of contention isn’t until like 2023 probably. They don’t “need” MLB production now from their top prospects.
What are you talking about? He barely played in the AFL. He was injured and shut down. Makes zero difference. He more than showed what he’s capable of climbing from A to A+ to AA at just 20 and produced each step of the way.
He’s exactly what Seattle needs. He represents a potential core piece to come out of the rebuild with.
Suggesting he’s better served as a trade chip is comical. Trade him for what, a different prospect?! An early extension is far more likely.
They both have high ceilings. Pache has the higher floor because of his defense. I have more confidence in Kelenic offensive package. However, if Pache hit tool develops, his ceiling is probably higher than Kelenic’s..
Paches floor seems higher but Kelenic seems to have a higher ceiling given his offense. Pretty even matched overall I’d say but give me kelenic for the dingers
Just posting pache’s offensive numbers don’t come close to doing him justice. He might be the best defensive CF in all of baseball including the majors
I want to see it when he comes up. scouts said Rosario was really good defensively and that’s obviously not the case.
Corries statement holds water, with a year of seasoning hes probably going to be one of the best if not the best CF in the game defensively –
Reminds me of having that streaky burst of Willy Mcghee and smothness of Griffey all in one
Scouts also said that Dustin Ackley was going to be an offensive force, which is also obviously not the case.
Leody Taveras might be in that conversation. Bat is nowhere near the level of these guys but damn can he play defense.
Defense only gets you so far. Austin Hedges might be the best defensive player in baseball and is the best pitch framer. How much value does he have?
When a guy like Pache hits .260-.270 in the minors, that will translate to .230-.250 in the majors. You know who that looks like? Manuel Margot, except with few HR and SB. Defensive value is extremely limited in today’s game.
where are you getting those numbers from? you know there isnt a formula for translating minors to majors production. guys who move through the minors at young ages (such as Pache) can also have the tendency to develope into better players while in the Majors, sometimes outperforming Minors numbers.
He may be, but If he’s Lagares at the plate, he’ll only be a 4th OF. Even if Kelenic was a butcher in the field (which he’s not), he’d still have impact as a DH in the middle of the lineup.
Kelenic’s carrying tool is his offense. If Kelenic turns into the next Dominic Brown. Not saying that it will happen .but if his hit tool doesn’t carry over to the major leagues, he may not be in the Major leagues for long. Where as if Pache doesn’t hit, he can create a career being a 4th outfielder type career.
Agree, S_man. I know Kelenic has the higher upside at the dish, but you never know if a guy will do it at the ML level until he tries. Right now, today, I’d rather have Pache’s glove. That’s going to translate, even if he doesn’t hit much.
I’m surprised Connor Brynre didn’t mention the (Arkansas) park factor when listing Kelenic’s AA .253/.315/.542 line That Travelers AA ball park has one of the lowest HR rates in the entire minor leagues
Since Kelenic’ wRC+ was mentioned, his offensive numbers were actually brought into perspective. Noone disputed his potential with the bat.
Gruß,
BSHH
Since Kelenic’ wRC+ was mentioned, his offensive numbers were actually brought into perspective. Noone disputed his potential with the bat.
Gruß,
BSHH
If only the defense translates, you have a problem. Finding glove-first outfielders isn’t a tough task. The Mariners have a player with similar offensive questions in Braden Bishop.
I’m a fan of both Pache and Kelenic, but Kelenic’s discipline and work ethic (and attitude) are all positives that suggest he’s going to produce.
And it’s not like Kelenic is a bad defender.
Don’t get me wrong I’m glad Connor Byrne is discussing the value of a top Mariners prospect. No disrespect but you’re missing my point- The 20 yr old’s 133 wRC+ value reflects home and away park adjustments. That AA ballpark in the Texas league brings the league’s overall wRC+ numbers down. If you focus on his 133 wRC+ in AA and not his overall 2019 wRC+ total of 149 then surely you bring JK’s home park into the equation. It would help support his point that Kelenic’s 133 wRC+ value is impressive.
BSHH- btw, in today’s most recent mlbtr article “Cardinals blocked prospects” Steve Adams quotes Fangraphs Eric Longenhagen (the same writer used for Kelenic’s numbers) when talking about Cards 1B prospect Luken Baker. He says “Baker hasn’t tapped into that (70 grade) power just yet, though he spent the 2019 season in a pitcher-friendly Florida State League.” As I said, Kelenic’s AA wRC+ value is lower than his overall 2019 wRC+ and I’m surprised Connor didn’t mention his home ballpark as one of the reasons why.
DSP isn’t friendly to any hitters, but it’s RHH’s that suffer the most.
No kidding! It’s not exactly friendly to LH hitters like Kelenic either. To your point- I’m sure a lot of people outside the Ms organization saw RH Evan White’s 2019 numbers at DSP and were surprised he received his contract extension.
No doubt. The splits were huge for White. For Lewis, too.
IMO Pache’s prospect stock is way too high for the numbers he’s put up in the minors so far. OPS:(2019:.802, 2018:.717, 2017:.679).
Yup
You’re ignoring his defense, and the fact that his numbers have risen as he’s progressed.
Prospect stock, as you call it, is based more on tools than stats. That’s why Nolan Gorman is still one of the top 3B prospects despite a ton of K’s and a low OPS.
Ik I’m biased but I truly believe
Allen
Baty
Mauricio
Alvarez
Will be better than
Anderson
Pache
Walters
Riley
All 4 will easily be top 100 next year.
Thats very resonable since Braves prospects have been fluffed up these past few years.
Yeah, that fluff Acuna couldn’t even steal 40 bags. Albies is junk too.
Those 2 are fine. Its the others from when they were the “best farm in baseball” that haven’t lived up to the build up. They haven’t even been prospects since May 2018 anyway.
Why are you acting like they are out of time? The oldest players in the group that you say are busts are like 22-23 years old. And have you forgotten Mike Soroka and Max Fried? Dansby is at least a solid shortstop, though he’s not a star. Austin Riley definitely has K issues, but he showed that he can hit big league pitching last year and has improved at every stop on the way up.
Why are you acting like they are out of time? The oldest guys in the group who you are saying are busts is like 22-23 years old. There are two top 50 prospect outfielders in AAA at 21 years old.
Are you forgetting Mike Soroka and Max Fried? Dansby is at least a solid shortstop, though he’s not a star. Riley showed he can hit big league pitching last year, but he does need to get his K issues reigned in. He’s improved at every level so far, he could figure it out at the majors as well.
AFK, dude, for real? Fluffed up?! I’ll grant you some of the pitchers have missed, but that’s true of every org. Every position player for the Braves has shown steady success, or at least flashes.
Kelenic’s carrying tool is his offense. If Kelenic turns into the next Dominic Brown. Not saying that it will happen .but if his hit tool doesn’t carry over to the major leagues, he may not be in the Major leagues for long. Where as if Pache doesn’t hit, he can create a career being a 4th outfielder type career.
Clearly you’re biased. If you’re comparing ceilings, Mauricio and Alvarez probably have the highest ceilings that you mentioned. However, Mauricio and Alvarez haven’t even made it to high A yet. Your making a lot of assumptions based upon the development progression. The 2 of them do have high ceiling. However, the risks are just as high. The Braves prospects have produced in the upper levels of the minors already. Therefor, I have more confidence in the Braves prospects in having some kind of major league careers than any of the Mets prospects as of right now.
But give most GMs the choice on who they want based on potential and I think most would agree with me.
When those four are in AA-AAA they could be top 25 prospects. Especially Alvarez and Mauricio.
Allen is also a first round talent that went third bc of uncertainty if he would sign. A lot of scouts love him.
And Baty is a monster. Has more pop than most college kids drafted. He is already top 100 in some of the rankings.
You are blinded by your love of the Mets. Could doesn’t mean that they will. The Braves prospects are already there, whereas the Mets prospects that you listed could be there. I highly doubt that Baty will be a top 25 prospect if he even makes it to double A. Big power, but can he make enough contact to get to the power? Can he adjust to better pitching? has not proven that he can yet. Lot of things must go right for you to assume that He could be a top 25 prospect.
Um Baty is already a top 100 prospect in some rankings and is expected to be top 100 in all of them by this time next year.. I didn’t know you were a scout. Of course people could be bust. But saying he might not make AA is ridiculous.
Only 2 of those guys have even played full season ball yet. Mauricio has a career OBP of .306 over 2 years. A .306 OBP does not play in mlb unless it is accompanied by 40-HR. Baty has a grand total of 157-AB! Everybody murders rookie and short season ball. By next year I would be incredibly surprised if more than 2 of those guys is a top 100 prospect.
He is 18…
Baty should played college ball but the money was too much to resist
His recognition at the plate needs to improve more than anything.
But he does have pop. He is 2-3 years away from the majors most likely.
those four are all hype. none has preformed at the higher minors levels the Braves prospects have yet. Allen is probably TJ in waiting, Baty is overhyped, and Mauricio is way overhyped for the numbers he puts up. oh and Alvarez can hit in the low minors. first player to ever do that. definition of pop up prospect.
Mauricio is hitting the same as pache did at that age. Same leagues and everything. Mauricio just turned 18 btw.
Francisco Alvarez is the next Contreras. (Of course all prospects could be bust)
You cant just say Allen is TJS waiting to happen. LOL. I’ll just say Ian Anderson is TJS waiting to happen.
And how is Baty overhyped??? His first year of pro ball his ops was above 800.
Ik the Phillies didn’t do to well developing prospects but the Mets are the opposite.
Nimmo
Conforto
Harvey
Thor
Degrom
Alonso
McNeil
Matz
Wheeler
Rosario
Just off the top of my head
Yes and they were the same franchise whose turned to CLEAR cut top 100 prospects in SWR and Kelenic into Cano Stroman and Edwin Diaz. Bro for real you are biased af simple as that. All four of the players you named are talented…no doubt, but for you to say all are better or going to be better than Pache and Kelenic…when literally every milb prospect list has them ranked higher is flat out biased. Yes prospects fail and yes it’s pretty stupid to even have these debates but at least make an argument with facts and not your hard on for the Mets.
Hey do you guys know where I put my pants
I’ll take that bet–and I don’t gamble!
What the heck lol. The Braves have produced Acuña, Albies, Swanson, Soroka, Fried, Camargo, Newcomb, Folty, and Riley with a still decent crop on the way.
Now, it’s true that only Acuna, Albies, and Soroka look like true studs, but that’s the rest have turned in productive seasons and been a part of two division titles with room to improve.
Will be interesting too see if Pache ever gets to around 200 lbs playing weight, I fear Mlb fastballs may over power him for a bit early….nonetheless he should put 10 gold gloves in his mantle when alls said and done
His weight? What does that have to with being overpowered by fastballs?
His plate mechanics just don’t seem natural/skillful enough to succeed at 185 lbs – An extra 15 lbs of muscle could sure help,…… some get it early 20’s some dont…..
Kelenic
You have to hit to stay in the big leagues, I’m going kelenic
Tell that to Jeff Mathis, who somehow has had a very long career even though he is an absolute zero when it comes to hitting.
I’ve got to go with Kelenic at least for now because his 2nd pro season was just an incredible show of offensive ability. Hardly any players than young and experienced put up the kind of power and OBP numbers that this kid did. Pache may wind up being a more complete player (if his defense is as good as advertised — and he still has plenty of time to add some pop to his bat) but Kelenic is in elite company when it comes to guys putting up such solid offensive seasons in just their first ‘full’ pro season. Sure there’s still some risk in that his batting average wasn’t exactly extraordinary — but like I said — it’s rare for players as young and inexperienced as him to put up such complete offensive seasons in their first full year of pro ball.
Kelenic. Better stick and is still a solid defender, especially if he moves to a corner outfield spot. Would still be slightly above average in center according to some scouts so don’t quote me on that.
If I’m a GM, I’d rather have Pache. I prefer the high floor.
Although if Jo Adell was an option…
Going with high floor will get you into the wild card round plenty of times, but don’t plan on advancing very far.
Jo Adell has a strikeout issue that would concern me. I think Kelenic will be a better player as will Rodriguez.
Kelenic is so heavily overrated. certainly a good prospect, but having been included in that Cano deal is probably giving him more hype then his actual numbers. (which are great but not absurd for the low minors) match Pache’s AA and AAA production and then we talk.
Kelenic matchinf Paches AA and AAA numbers would mean that Kelenic is struggling…. which tells you all you need to know.
To be fair idek why they compared these guys…they aren’t really similar players. I get that their bats are the key for them moving forward but Pache will be a big leaguer without a doubt bc of his fielding and speed…kelenic will be too. I guess my point is that they are both very very good but it would have been better to compare Kelenic with someone like Adell and Pache with someone like Kieboom (yes different positions)
This is a fun faceoff for me, because I’m a fan of both clubs.
Pache has never really hit RHP well, though he made adjustments last season in AA that were promising. If he can build off of that, he could be really special.
There’s an argument that his floor is higher, but if the Braves end up with a platoon bad/fourth outfielder, he’ll be a major disappointment. The Mariners may already have a player like that in Braden Bishop. Not as talented as Pache, but there are similarities.
Kelenic has tools that don’t show in FV grades. His work ethic is second to none, he’s confident without the cockiness of someone like Tyler O’Neil, and has discipline. He may not win any Gold Gloves, but he’s more than capable of making all the routine plays and an occasional spectacular one.
For me, it’s an easy choice. I’d take Kelenic. But I’d love to see those two facing off in an All Star game down the road.
Kelenic gonna be WAY Better IMO!
Even though Pache is a much better defender, I’m taking Kelenic, because if I had to choose between better hitter or better defender, I’m going with the better hitter. Well maybe unless if the better defender is close if not better in offensive production, which is not the case in this, but Pache can definitely improve.
I’m a Braves fan, but Jarred Kelenic has a high upside so I went with him.
Offense doesn’t always translate as well at the major league level, however Pache is already a gold glove caliber outfielder, so his floor will be around 2-3 WAR a year. If he ends up at 5-10% above league average at the plate, he’s a 4-5 win player. Seems like more of a sure thing value-wise, but I understand why prospect evaluators are more enamored with Kelenic’s offensive upside. Chicks dig the long ball. Both look like they’ll be pretty good. As a Braves fan, I’d rather have Pache. Can’t wait to see him in the outfield with Acuna!