Right off the top, I’ll acknowledge the term ’rebound candidate’ is a bit strong to describe Blake Snell. Even looking only at bottom line results, Snell’s 2019 season was serviceable. He logged a 4.29 ERA in 107 innings over 23 starts; Baseball Reference, which emphasizes run prevention in its WAR calculation, pegged Snell at a decent 1.4 wins above replacement.
There’s no question, though, it marked a step back from his otherworldly 2018 results. That year, he tossed 180.2 innings while allowing fewer than two earned runs per nine. That league-best run prevention translated to 7.1 bWAR. Looking solely at the results, it’d be easy to conclude Snell took a massive step back last season.
Every team now looks beyond a pitcher’s mere run prevention (or win-loss record, where Snell also regressed dramatically). Looking deeper, the southpaw looked a lot like his 2018 self last year. His average fastball velocity dropped about half a mile per hour, but he still sat 95.89 MPH, per Brooks Baseball. No other left-handed starter threw harder. His spin rates across the board remained consistent 2018 to 2019, as did his arm slot. On the whole, Snell was working with the same raw stuff that enabled his 2018 dominance.
Admittedly, retaining his stuff from the year prior doesn’t automatically mean he was as effective. But on a micro level, Snell looked every bit as dominant. His 2019 strikeout rate (33.3%) was up nearly two percentage points from the year before (31.6%). His walk rate (9.1%) in each year was identical. Most importantly, Snell’s 17.7% swinging strike rate ranked #1 among all MLB starters (minimum 60 innings). The names just behind him are a who’s who of the game’s top arms: Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Luis Castillo, Jacob deGrom.
Nor was this a case of a pitcher with dominant strike zone metrics who got bombed when hitters did make contact. Snell’s 88 MPH average exit velocity and 32% hard contact rate allowed were league average, generally the same level of contact quality he surrendered in 2018. Snell’s opponents’ BABIP rose over .100 points between 2018-19, but there’s nothing to suggest he got any more hittable. (He did surrender a few more line drives last season, but large changes in line drive rate don’t tend to stick year to year). It just seems that more batted balls dropped in; if even a league average amount of those batted balls find gloves moving forward, he should again be one of the league’s toughest pitchers to score against.
If a 2020 season is ultimately played, Snell looks more than capable of contending for another Cy Young. He had a precautionary cortisone shot in his throwing elbow in February, but at last check he was feeling ’fine.’ Assuming the layoff allows him to reemerge at full health, Snell looks on track to reclaim his spot as one of the league’s best pitchers.
Hopefully he can keep it up. Small frame like Lincecum and he lost a few ticks on his fastball with age. But then there’s pitchers like Pedro Martinez who kept it up well into his 30’s. I guess everyone is different on how they age. Again, hope he can maintain his dominance.
Small frame? The man is 6’4″, 215 lb. He is in no way small. He is a giant compared to Lincecum. He is also only 27 years old, so I don’t expect his whole 1/2 mph of lost velocity to increase much, if at all, for the next 3-5 years.
I’m not sure I’m 100% sold on Snell being the guy who had a 1.78 ERA in 2018… personally I think he’s closer to his career numbers and maybe like a 3.50 ERA type pitcher. Still very good by any standards and a frontline SP. But idk I feel like the 2018 season was more of an outlier than a lot of other people seem to think. If you go back and look at his minor league track record as well… with the exception of an amazing 2015 season — he tends to be more of a 3.00-3.50 ERA type pitcher. Personally I think he’s going to be more of that going forward than he is going to completely dominate all of baseball like he did in 2018. Who knows maybe I’m wrong and he really is the current day Kershaw… But idk my personal opinion is that he’s more of a good to great pitcher but not exactly an otherworldly one like he was in 2018. Guess we shall see (if there is a season this year… fingers crossed there will be though!)
Agree. Snell doesn’t have my highest appraisal. He won the Cy Young pitching less than 6 innings per start. Snell is Porcello with more consistent confidence.
Top 10 Cy young voting for at least 6 more times in his career. Great pitcher who should not have agreed to that extension.
I’m sure you’d walk away from a guaranteed $50 million check if someone waved it in front of your face too. You could get hurt tomorrow and keep all that money, what a dumb move
He’s so good that the risk is worth the major reward. Even in a “down year” he showed he has tremendous talent. Still decent money but he could have gotten near Gerrit Cole
Sale got his extension just in time. Snell might play the Sale waiting game and miss the good timing luck by getting an injury.
Remember when Matt Harvey was a sure fire ace super extension candidate? Pepperidge Farms remembers…
Great guy, great pitcher. Any team would love to have him. Mariners, get this guy home to the Northwest!
He bought an $800,000 property in the Shore Acres neighborhood in St. Petersburg, near the Vinoy. In an interview with The Athletic he had this to say. “I want to be at a place that’s going to be the most comfortable, allow me to perform at the highest level that I want to. I’ll be here in the offseason more than I ever have been now that I have a place to stay.” “I love it here. I’m going to give this team my all. I’m finally home.”
Very good, Louis. Short , but pointless.