The Nationals won the 2019 World Series and have much the same core in place for the next several seasons … with one major exception. Third baseman Anthony Rendon is now a member of the Angels after an astronomical effort last year.
Filling in at the hot corner is one thing. The Nationals gobbled up a bevy of veterans that can probably hold things down as needed. Well-conceived mix and match approaches can work; the Nats need not fret that they failed to retain Rendon or bring in a replacement on the order of Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado.
Relying on platoons and cycling through veterans is a fine strategy … to a point. It’s hard to platoon all over the field due to roster limitations. Grinding out good-enough, affordable production works best when it’s done as a complement to a fleet of star-level performers.
That’s essentially how the D.C. organization reached the promised land last year. The Nationals’ farm system has rarely ranked among the best in the game in recent seasons. But the team has nevertheless sustained exceptional overall results ever since its 2012 breakout — with a few peaks and valleys, but all winning seasons — due in large part to its ability to promote or sign new star performers. Even as Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos, Jordan Zimmermann, and Bryce Harper departed, the club brought in Max Scherzer and Patrick Corban via free agency … and, more importantly, graduated Trea Turner and Juan Soto. Now, with Rendon out — and even with Stephen Strasburg retained — the Nats’ mid-term outlook may depend upon the ability to find another core piece to deliver output worth far more than his salary.
For the Nats, the big question isn’t whether they’ve got someone to match Rendon’s production at third base in 2020; it’s doubtful they do. Rather, it’s whether they can cook up another high-level star to take Rendon’s place as a multi-year, cost-controlled stalwart.
That’s a long-winded way to say: ease off on poor Carter Kieboom. The Nationals’ top prospect could indeed be the heir to Rendon’s third-bag throne, but he’s not the only hope here. Kieboom is an exciting talent at the plate, but he’s just 22 years of age, struggled quite a bit last year in the majors, and hasn’t yet mastered the third base position despite coming up as a shortstop.
No doubt the dream scenario is for Kieboom to explode onto the scene. He’s ready for a full test, though the outcome remains uncertain. But really, he may actually not be the top candidate to step into the void. Rendon was long the lower-profile co-star to Harper. Perhaps Victor Robles — the organization’s former top-ranked prospect — can be the same to Juan Soto.
In the case of Robles, he’s already a valuable MLB performer — and he’s barely a hundred days older than Kieboom. Robles roamed center field for 155 games last year, performing at about 10 percent below a league-average offensive player. But he was an excellent defender and baserunner.
Just how good was Robles without the bat in hand? Plenty to make up for the so-so hitting effort. Fangraphs graded him out as a solid regular at 2.5 WAR in his rookie campaign. But Baseball-Reference, which relies upon DRS rather than UZR, was wowed by Robles’s glovework and credit him with over four wins above replacement.
Regardless, there’s a nice floor to work from. Any improvement at the plate — let alone a real breakout — could make Robles into a certified star. But there are reasons for trepidation, too. Though he popped 17 long balls, Robles managed only a meager 23.0% hard-hit rate (bottom 4% leaguewide) and carried a .292 xwOBA that lagged his .317 wOBA. Given that he faced questions about quality of contact in the minors, particularly after returning from a major wrist injury, it’s fair to wonder if Robles will ever really do much more damage at the dish.
While most of the top Nats prospects are pitchers, there is one other possibility of interest: middle infielder Luis Garcia. He ran into some difficulties last year at Double-A, but did so while playing at that lofty level at 19 years of age. Garcia was turning heads this spring, with a .417/.462/.542 output in 27 plate appearances. The odds are low that he’ll blossom into anything approaching a star on Rendon’s order, but his ceiling probably encompasses some All-Star level performances.
Perhaps it’s too much to say that the Nationals absolutely need another young star. But it’d represent far and away the clearest path to a return to the top of the NL East heap after two seasons spent chasing the Braves. The Nationals can’t assume their expensive and excellent (but not especially youthful) rotation will be as good as it has been. The bullpen is a perennial question mark. And there are veteran timeshares scattered over much of the rest of the roster.
A breakout from Robles or Kieboom — or, in the near-future, Garcia — would potentially give the Nats a trio of position-player stars to help keep the contention window open for a full decade or more. Or, perhaps, two of those youngsters may settle in as excellent, cost-controlled regulars, which might be about as good as a single star. Regardless, the point remains: the Nationals’ top-heavy roster and farm needs to score a few more hits. If that doesn’t come to pass, it’s fair to wonder whether the relatively thin farm system will be enough to support a winning team for much longer, given the ever-rising costs of the team’s stars (even in relation to a hefty payroll) and the pending free agency of other significant portions of the roster after the 2020 campaign.
I really like this year’s draft class, and since they didn’t lose any picks (actually gained one from Rendon) it’ll be a great way to re-stock their farm system for the future
There’ll be less picks (possibly a lot more), which may make some top talent defer the draft until next year, and there’ll be much fewer scouting opportunities, so this year’s draft will be, at least in theory, more difficult than most to find the building blocks.
Or teams miss a few extra diamonds…
There is no reason to think they won’t produce more MLB star-like talent. They make the best out of the farm they have and that keeps producing.
Also with Jeremy De La Rosa and Andry Lara can also be long term projects as well as Tim Cate and Jackson Rutledge so they have depth in the farm system
I’ve heard people say Kieboom is a mental midget on the field defensively, and let’s it carry over to his hitting. Hopefully the Nats can find a position he’s comfortable with, cause his bat can play, but defense needs to as well.
They must have a really good scouting and player development department, considering they traded away Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Luzardo, Treinen, Neuse and still brought up all those guys, I want to see what Kieboom can do this season, his minor league numbers last year were insane. Go Jays……. Any other significant prospects that I missed?
Go Jays was the most random addition to your comment.
Although maybe I shouldn’t be complaining, I am a Jays fan after all.
It was supposed to be at the end, but I ended up adding the question to it. I’m a jays fan so there’s most likely some trades/prospects missing off my list. Let’s go Bluejays.
Robbie Ray, Felipe Vazquez, Nick Pivetta, are a few more.
Felipe Vazquez was never Drafted by Nats.
Nobody said anything about drafting…players they scouted and developed include Vazquez.
Wasn’t that guy named something different when he was with the Nats? I thought I remembered him changing it, probably trying to run from his past, the sick SOB.
The Name change was part of the process of cleaning up the latin American and Caribbean players misreporting their age to seem younger, aften using a different name.. MLB spent decades looking the other way and it took about three years to get it all straight
Sure, why not?
I once was at a Class A game against the Nats affiliate and a prospects dad told me as soon as Bruce Harper left he believed his kid would take the OF spot vacated by him
Robles just a decent defender? didn’t he lead all of MLB CFs or something in DRS? and 28 stolen bases when you’re batting primarily at the bottom of the order isn’t anything to sneeze at either. a 4 WAR from a rookie is pretty nice and he’s only gonna get better. possibly MUCH better
If his bat plays like it did in the minors, he could really help offset the loss of Rendon. The jury is still out on that, but the potential is there.
Yes. Led all of MLB in Outs Above Average.
He was insane. Eye test, base stats, advanced stats, amazing centerfielder.
I agree. When you compare him at the plate, you should be looking at 8 hole hitters around the National league. Hitting in front of the pitcher is just a different skill set.
At least compare that to his time hitting near the top of the order…
Looking forward to seeing Drew Mendoza as a 3B for the Nationals. He’s almost 23 years old and should be up in a couple years.
Another player that should turn heads is Seth Romero. The guy may be a little whacky, but he can pitch. A strong lefty that is probably a couple years away also.
Whacky?
He was suspended for college for some reason… don’t recall.
Mendoza plays 1B. Have numores Catchers in Minors,Mason Denaburg and so on.
He was a 3B at FSU.. Didn’t notice what he did in his partial year in minors.
Wow! No mention of their top pitching prospect Jackson Rutledge ??