The Royals are trying to pull off a tough feat: a quick, low-pain rebound in place of a lengthy slog of a rebuild. That’s a tall task for any organization, but especially for a small-market franchise that pushed a lot of chips onto the table as part of a successful effort to maximize a recent window of contention.
As you might expect, the development of existing players is critical to this effort — as much or more than prospects, the younger big leaguers who’ll be relied upon to produce in the next few seasons. It’s absolutely critical for the K.C. organization to find some big-time production from players who aren’t commanding big salaries. Otherwise, deciding to hang onto Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, and other veterans could really sting in the long run.
The Royals have a pair of pre-arbitration players whose up-and-down careers to this point suggest equal parts upside and uncertainty. At times, shortstop Adalberto Mondesi and corner outfielder/infielder Hunter Dozier have performed like stars. But can they do so sustainably?
There’s plenty at stake for all parties. Both Mondesi and Dozier enter the 2020 season with two full years of MLB service, but not enough to reach Super Two status. Accordingly, they’ll be playing for their first big payday — as first-time arbitration-eligible players — whenever this campaign gets underway.
These two players have notable lineages and abundant physical ability. Mondesi’s dad had a long and excellent MLB career. Dozier was the eighth overall pick in the 2013 draft.
Their careers have certainly seen some peaks and valleys from those starting points. Mondesi shot up onto top-prospect rankings and burst onto the MLB scene with his first extended action in 2018, when he showed a rare blend of power (14 home runs in 291 plate appearances) and speed (32 stolen bases). But he took a step back at the plate last year — he posted an 82 wRC+ and Statcast credited him with a putrid .282 xwOBA — and ended up being shelved late in the season with shoulder surgery that he’s still fully recovering from.
Dozier’s dip came earlier in his professional career, as he struggled to convert promise into production in the minors. Health issues also intervened. By the end of the 2018 campaign, Dozier seemed likely to be a bust. He had reached but struggled at the MLB level and wasn’t hitting much in the upper minors. And then came 2019 … when Dozier suddenly broke out at the game’s highest level. He launched 26 long balls and posted a .279/.348/.522 slash line over 586 plate appearances, producing 85th percentile exit velocity and 80th percentile sprint speed. While Statcast still saw some good fortune in the batted-ball outcomes (.337 xwOBA vs. .360 wOBA), that hardly took the sheen off of a breakthrough campaign.
I’m not going to tell you I know what to expect from this duo. Each has struggled with swings and misses at some points, but also shown an ability to produce despite occasionally hefty strikeout rates. Their respective power potential has likewise alternately shown up and fallen off.
The upside here is tremendous. At his best, in 2018, a 22-year-old, switch-hitting Mondesi produced 2.5 rWAR and 2.8 fWAR in less than a half-season. He could be a true superstar if he can return to that level of output over a full campaign. Dozier was a 3.2 rWAR/3.0 fWAR performer in 139 games last year. That also reflects poor baserunning numbers and defensive grades at third base. Dozier graded better in right field, where he’ll appear primarily in 2020. Perhaps there’s still more upside in that regard.
There’s a load of overall uncertainty in Kansas City, but also some intriguing talent. The team’s other obvious boom-or-bust players — Maikel Franco, Jorge Soler, Danny Duffy — are set for free agency after 2021. Then there’s a host of younger players and prospects that have yet to put down much or any track record in the majors. Mondesi and Dozier occupy a middle ground of experience and contractual control that makes the 2020 season particularly pivotal for them and the team. If these two can settle in as steady stars, the Royals could be looking at three more campaigns apiece of cost-controlled quality to build around.
Adalberto Mondesi has MASSIVE POTENTIAL. I think with some improvements he will become the next DJ LeMahieu but with better base running ability and power. I think he will cut the strikeouts back and get a fairly better eye. If you have watched him play you know the upside he brings.
Big potential but I don’t think he’ll ever hit consistently above .265
In 2018, he had 14 HR in only 75 games (291 PA). Last year was a step back with more K’s, but if he can be a bit more selective and cutdown on strikeouts (famous last words), he could be incredible. That being said, his defense is still good and has pop, so maybe he doesn’t need to hit that far above .265. I wonder if he could be a poor man’s Paul DeJong with more speed.
I believe they should trade him to the Rays. I’d slot him in at 3rd (if he has the arm) and see what he can do. Reminds me a hair bit of Moncada. Rays have depth. The Royals should have definitely already traded Merrifield. I don’t believe they thought they’d compete so why not cash in on Kennedy, Perez, and Merrifield?
Wtf? A poor man’s Paul DeJong with more speed? You mean a better Paul DeJong?
LeMahieu’s greatest strength is that teams don’t shift on him.
Haven’t watched Mondesi enough to make that compassion.
He doesn’t get on base enough and I doubt he can improve enough in that area to be a good offensive player…. glove is great though
LeMahieu is one of the better contact hitters of the past decade. Sure, Mondesi has plenty of upside, but he doesn’t have close to the hit tool that DJ does.
Why do people always report Salvador Perez as an option to trade as if he ever was ? Can you imagine Yadi in another uniform , it’s not happening lol, he’ll be here winning the WS again with Bobby Witt, Nick Pratto, Khalil Lee Nick Heath, Kyle Bubic and Brady Singer real soon
You forgot potentially their biggest upside young SP in your list … Daniel Lynch .. He could easily lead that Kansas City rotation for years
Oh yeh him too, they’res just so much good talent coming up , Kower also , maybe summer will turn it around , Keller and Duffy get back to form to keep a veteran presence , keep Whit and Doz and Mondi maybe trade some lower pieces for Josh Bell after Soler leaves , The future looks bright in KC
I think Perez remains a Royal for the sole purpose that KC wouldn’t take fair value for him and would demand an overpay.
So you think EVERY one of our prospects will work out? The reality of it is Salvy is not in the same body mold as Yadi. Yadi is compact, salvy is tall and will only breakdown faster because of that unless they move him to 1B. The bottom line is you can’t possibly expect every prospect to work out and sometimes you have to let go of your favorites to improve. Everyone hated the Grienke trade until it worked out. Gordo, another example of holding on for way too much $$$. I will say I think Whit needs to be moved before Salvy though. You’ll get new favorites.
Sal is 30 y/o and a free agent in 2022 who has steadily lost offensive potency since 2013 and figures to continue that downtrend as he ages. He still would be a nice trade piece for a team in need as an alternative to Realmuto, but KC won’t be getting what they’ll want for a cornerstone and a deal won’t be consummated. I don’t blame them that they don’t want to be what just happen to CLE, trading a franchise icon for a discount (and see your return (Clase) have a PR implosion).
Unrelated but Emmanuel Clase looks exactly like Mookie Betts. Mookie’s Dad had a wild time in the DR 40 years ago and he unknowingly fathered another one. That’s my conspiracy theory for the day.
If you think the Kluber trade was a PR hit for the Indians, wait until they ship Lindor’s bags (or worse: Let him walk for nothing).
I’ve heard some say the Indians have a strong front office and maybe it’s just ownership/finances but to lose a WS you were in the drivers seat to win and move so many guys in such a weak division seems crazy to me. The jury is still out and I’m an arm chair gm but since they lost it seems like others took steps forward while they seem to be retooling. That’s a strategy for a .500 team the past year not the AL champs.
When picking a World Series team, I always get emotional and root for the storyline that resonates most with me. (It’s always been fun to be emotionally invested in a team, even if just for one series.) Obviously, the Cubs’ drought meant I was rooting for the Cubs that series, but it was really difficult to root against the city of Cleveland that year. One of the few World Series that I would’ve been okay either way.
Perez has two years left.
Their options as of right now are unlimited.
But Perez comes back this year and plays well you think he will be asking for a good deal after 2021
The question becomes what do the Royals do.
KC is going to have to make a choice. To say he won’t ever leave KC is denying the obvious for now.
Id guess b/c their around a last place team now and there is a Big need for Quality C around the league that could fetch a nice haul
I am curious what KC would demand for Dozier? I really wanted Texas to get him last off-season before he became an un-tradeable piece. Here’s to another made up trade proposal.
Maybe this:
Tex gets: Hunter Dozier
KC gets: Davis Wendzel, Joe Palumbo, and Eli White
Who says no?
Royals say no. Maybe Texas could have gotten him before 2019, but it will be a lot harder now. Any trade would BEGIN with Josh Jung and have at least 1 more piece. They won’t trade a player who has just proven himself to be a quality major leaguer for a group of low level prospects
We would not start with/or include Josh Jung in a package for Dozier. I understand he had a good 19′, but he is our top prospect, he would be the start of talks for Nolan, but not Dozier. Wendlez as also taken in the 19′ draft, but just in the compensation round, he’s around 10th in the Rangers farm. Palumbo is a good AAA arm almost ready for the bigs, and he is still young (plus he is a Rangers top 10 prospect). Eli White is a speedy, defensive first center fielder who has also came around with the bat last season in AAA. At best he is a speedy, defensive, 4th outfielder with some pop. I understand Dozier had a great 19′, but I think this deal could get it done.
I understand that you greatly value Rangers prospects Rangers29. The problem is that KC already has Dozier and wants to keep him. He has big value for them and they don’t have a high quality ready-made replacement. Yes Franco can play 3B for them but they would lose a lot of offense. The Rangers would have to make the Royals an offer they can’t refuse to get Dozier. Otherwise they will just refuse. 3 Rangers prospects in their 10-15 range MAY be fair value, possibly, but it won’t convince the Royals to make the trade.
KC, and it would hurt you with that team for even asking in future trade possibilitites
Solak (along with at least 2 more prospects in their top 30) would have to be part of any transaction I would imagine…
Really? Pair of Kings would be a better headline.
They need to trade whit. Isn’t he combing up on his age 32 season? They are in a rebuilding phase and they need more top prospects, they are in a crappy spot because they decided not to trade either Perez or Whit these past seasons, they clearly have no chance of competing unless they make some smart moves
I def think they should have pushed it earlier this offseason –
Sd makes all the sense in the world, hell even take back some bad Will Meyers money to sweeten the pot –
When the Cardinals were out I was pulling for the Royals to win it all big time and I’m glad they did. But I don’t know that this team is that close. The division is bad but the White Sox have their own up and comers and deeper pockets. I wish them luck but these two and a number of other prospects need to pan out to be at least major league contributors at low cost and that’s hard to imagine.
Dozier was only a 1st round draft pick because Royals were trying to save money to draft Sean M. He has become a decent player, but don’t get too excited based on when he was drafted.
Salvy will always mean more to the Royals than to another team. Someone mentioned his body size, and remember his injuries. Keep Salvy for intangibles. His trade value left the station long ago.
I love Whit, but if a team ever gives the Royals market value for him, they must move him. DM cannot let emotion factor into this unless he knows something we don’t about immediate contention for the playoffs.