With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway at long last, it’s time to make some predictions. We’re polling the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system. We’ve already surveyed the AL Central and NL Central landscapes, and now we’ll turn to the National League East.
As is the case with the National League more broadly, the NL East looks like it could end up very tightly-packed from start to finish. The Braves have claimed back-to-back division titles and their star young core only figures to get better. Fresh off a World Series win, the Nationals still boast perhaps the game’s top starting rotation. Anthony Rendon’s defection is quite the loss, but the lineup is still chock-full of talent. The Mets, too, have a strong group of bats and an uber-ace in Jacob deGrom. Their defense is questionable and there’s some volatility on the pitching staff, yet there’s no denying the upside. The Phillies have a handful of high-end players but some uncertainty on the mound. It’s a bit more of a long shot in Miami, but the Marlins have built a high-upside young rotation and added a handful of solid veteran position players over the offseason.
Which team do you think is the best of the bunch? (Poll link for app users).
lets face it, real battle here is for 2nd, which i think each of PHI, NYM, and WSH have a fairly equal chance of getting.
Phils won’t have much of a chance if they can’t score with the bases loaded! I mean 3 times, jeez.
Also- in what world was Klentak living in that he felt confident rolling with this bullpen??
Only 57 games to go till the Klentak-MacFail reign of error comes to an end. Sadly, that will also mark the end of Realmuto’s time in a Phillies uniform. Look for Joe Girardi to point Middleton toward rebuilding the front office with some top Cashman aides, such as rising star Kevin Reese.
That’s a trip – Kevin Reese attended Mission Bay HS in San Diego at the same time I did. I didn’t know him personally, but I followed his career after I learned he’d been drafted. He had a cup of coffee with the Yanks, IIRC, and last I heard he had taken a job in their scouting department. I didn’t realize he was a rising star, as you say – he must have moved up quickly in the ranks, because I don’t think he retired from playing too long, right?
Phillies have no shot. They are the 4th best team at best. The SP is basically Nola, Wheeler, pray for rain, pray for rain, pray for rain. The bullpen is AWFUL.
“Pray for rain” is the mantra of many an NL East team not named the Nats most days
and the Nats dont even have Stras right now.
Atlanta is confident with their rotation.
I don’t know if “confident” is accurate. Maybe “optimistic.” Folty, Newcomb, and Hamels are questionable in terms of expectations. The Braves do have a strong stable of young guys to try, but they’re not proven.
let me explain why i think this Nats lost Rendon, Soto is in limbo, and cant expect Stras to stay as healthy as last year. Mets already lost Thor for a year, and Stroman for at least a bit, and its likely that team has more injuries. Porcello will never live back up to his CY year, and Wacha is a health question mark. their depth SP are mediocre, and if the Phillies hitters play up to their talent levels, their offenses are very simmilar – deep, but few real standout bats. sure, Phils pen is bad, but how much better is NYM’s? Can Daniel Hudson play up to his 2019 self? what i see is not the Phillies being underrated, but the Mets and the Nationals being a tad overrated. I think each team’s holes are collectively fairly simmilar in size. is it going to be easy? no, but i dont think the competition is as dynamic as it’s made out to be.
I think the Mets bullpen is actually a lot better.
Lugo
Wilson
Betances
Familia (looks really good)
Diaz is probably are 5h best. But I don’t know why he is still closing
Gsellman isn’t amazing but he is better than McCain ect..
Betances hasn’t thrown a pitch anywhere near his old velocity.
Apparently the Mets didn’t get your memo about being a lot better. It’s kind of the same thing when the Mets didn’t get the memo that they had “five aces”.
Apparently the Marlins didn’t get the memo about social distancing
Well, we can do what Mets fans do…make excuses.
We were in first place until COVID took out our roster.
I think this excuse works more than the Mets annual excuse of “We didn’t win because we didn’t reach our potential.” or the “we need to fire [fill in manager’s name]” excuse.
Mets have zero chance
How do?
Haters going to hate
You are probably right. But only bc of the Mets missing Stro and Thor and Nats missing Stras and Soto. To think that’s if those teams had that they wouldn’t have a shot at first is not right imo.
I guess Braves missing, Markakis, Hamels and Will Smith doesnt count, right?…..
Well, my Marlins were tied for first place until we got hit with the COVID outbreak.
🙂
That’s so clever you should post it again
I would be ok with Phillies finishing 5th if it means Klentak gets FIRED. He is awful
AGREE. The whole philosophy of the team has sucked for awhile now. When did he take over, 2016? We somehow forgot how to steal bases, bunt and play small ball over the years. How has no one told him how terrible his bullpen is?
I get that you feel that way as a Phillies fan, but that’s every team in the league. Baseball has changed.
When’s the last time any team in MLB has played small ball? I love sound old-school baseball too but no team has played it in decades. The only time I see it anymore is in college baseball and when Japan is in the WBC.
Klentak is a lame duck. the only reason he is still here is Middleton just extended him not too long ago and he doesnt want to waste money hiring a second GM. trust me, good chance he’s gone this offseason unless they do very well.
Yep, he’s tried, but he’s just missed the mark. I think it will be Dave Dombrowski’s show if he wants it.
And he will trade every young player you have in your system. He’s not the right guy.
Oh, I agree. You get a window of legitimate World Series contention and then he dips as the team is left with no prospects and a big payroll. Combined that he’s probably one of the more expensive GM’s and that’s not a winning recipe in the age of prospect rankings and sabermetrics.
However, I think Middleton and the Phillies are one of the few teams that would be willing to give DD the keys. They’ve made big trades, signed big names, hired a big name manager…if change happens, I think it’d be the perfect storm of an expensive, underperforming team with an owner/fanbase that is tired of losing with all these marquee players.
that’s the good thing about Middleton he’s involved enough to probably tell DD that he doesn’t want him to do that. same principal as to why Klentak is a lame duck. i think Middleton is really running the show this year while he waits for Klentak’s contract to run out a bit more.
Worst choice possible for an organization that needs to rebuild the pitching staff. Young arms like Howard and de los Santos ought to be the smart move. Remember, intelligent organizations only trade the players they don’t really want to hold onto.
This response was supposed to be placed after the one on Dombrowski. Hiring him would be a tragic error.
I’m actually interested in Miami in a 60 game sample. The pitching is legit. I could see them being a surprise playoff team.
Circling this comment to revisit in September. They are .500 at best when it’s said and done. They have to play Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Braves, and Nats. Can’t see them getting in, even in expanded playoffs.
You realize that being 500 might actually get them in? The 8th seed in the NL last season had a .519 win percentage, that’s 31 wins over 60 games.
The Red Sox can hit, but they have a God awful pitching staff. The Orioles whipped them with Jose Iglesias batting third.
I just don’t see it with their lineup… But this is something I want.
Apologies, but this comment didn’t age well.
Even though the Phillies and Mets looked awful in their first series, here’s my take:
1. Braves
2. Nationals
3. Phillies
4. Mets
5. Marlins
Originally I had Mets getting 2nd, but the bullpen and defense still looked awful, and I don’t see them overcoming the pitching injuries.
To bad stro and Thor got hurt . We could have been really good
Yes. Big injuries. I will say, the offense has been missing the first 3 games as well. That’s troubling as everyone praises the lineup.
Yeah, losing two overrated pitchers always makes a team worst than they would have been.
Excuses.
Heck, the Marlins were tied in first until they got hit with this COVID outbreak. I like making excuses!
The extra innings rule is a joke. I’m ok with the dh rule as long as NL fans are.
I hate both rules, but whatever. May as well try them out this season. DH likely here to stay, but I’m sick of seeing 10+ runs every game.
The Braves are the most well-rounded in my opinion. Their lineup isn’t as deep as the Mets, but the rotation isn’t as questionable and the bullpen is quietly the best in the division. Greene, Melancon, Martin, Jackson, Dayton, and O’Day round off a pretty formidable unit. I wish they had more stability at third base and Hamels needs to get healthy, but otherwise can’t complain.
The Nationals have a scary good rotation, but the lineup will suffer without Rendon. People seem to forget about Corbin and Sanchez amidst the Scherzer/Strasburg hype. The lineup isn’t awful, but lacks consistent lunch beyond Soto and Turner. Harris, Doolittle, and Hudson is a good shutdown trio, but the bullpen is relatively quiet otherwise. Still think they easily crack the postseason.
The Mets will struggle without Syndergaard and Stroman’s calf looks ominous. They need Porcello and Wacha to step up if they’re going anywhere. That lineup can be deadly with Cespedes healthy, but the defense is the division’s worst with Cano at second and Davis in left field. One of Betances, Familia, or Diaz has to emerge as a reliable closer for this team to have a shot.
The Phillies have some splash hitters with Harper, Hoskins, and Realmuto, but no bench. The rotation is half-baked, with the fifth starter a complete joke as demonstrated today. Even worse, the bullpen is chock full of inexperience and washed-uo veterans. Even as a Phillies fan, I can’t see this team in the postseason.
The Marlins should be able to compete for fourth place, but they’re still a few pieces away. Their rotation is very underrated with pieces like Alcantara, Smith, and Yamamoto. Kintzler is a stable closer and they at least have some decent offensive contributors, such as Anderson and Dickerson. That said, this team is young and growing. They’ll make mistakes and undergo some serious growth spurts. I see some potential though.
Overall, I think Atlanta and Washington are locks for the postseason barring catastrophe. The Mets should be in the mix, but will need to fight off other fringe contenders such as Miluakee, Arizona, and San Diego for a trip to the postseason. I might be overreacting, but I think the Phillies are toast. Too much inconsistency and absolutely no bullpen.
Thoughts?
the good thing is its not there are no other options besides VV. id hesitate to put so much on him but Howard could at least provide solid long relief innings soon, ane they could try to get creative and open for VV. honestly I think we underrate some of the higher minors starters as potential VV replacement. EDLS, Rosso, Damon Jones, etc could perhaps step in and throw 4.50 ball, which isnt too bad for a 5. rest of the rotation should improve with someone not named Chris Young in charge. Nola will be Nola, Wheeler can be a good #2. one forgets Eflin’s ERA through his second to last pre-ASG start was very close to Sonny Gray’s, and Gray was an all star. he wore down but that was health related. Arrieta claims to be healthy now so perhaps he may be at least serviceable. bullpen isnt great, but we foeget they are missing Suarez, and they still could promote guys lime Brogdon, Russ, etc who could be a bit better in these roles. also BP updates at the deadline arent always expensive. honestly, im not saying the team is great, but i feel like there is just so much doom and gloom from fans. just let things play out a bit. they will improve (specifcally once they start playing non-Marlins teams)
The Marlins do have our number for some reason. I just hope they don’t rush Howard before he’s ready. Maybe Vince can move to the bullpen. I feel he’d be better in shorter stints where he can max his velocity
i was never one for pushing Howard as quick as possible, but i think he can at least hang in short spurts. fact is, no minors means he has no chance to face AAA batters, and he seems to be polished enough to at least be close to ML action. maybe start him as an opener and then add an inning each start or two from there. work him into action.
I think the Phillies bench is actually quite good this year as opposed to last, but otherwise I agree.
Andrew Knapp disagrees. Gosselin had the game of his life, but I don’t trust him otherwise. Walker is fine as a platoon option and Quinn a defensive replacement, but I wouldn’t want to rely on them as extended starters. I do think Garlick is fairly promising, however
to Gosselin’s credit, his numbers last year were fairly solid for a bench bat. he’s not going to hit two homers a day, but if he can reach base that’s better then the average bench bat.
I’m probably being too harsh and attributing Knapp’s problems to our bench as a whole. I still just can’t trust that bullpen though
The real question is can the Braves even make it out of the first round of the playoffs when they let even weaker teams into it and only make them win 2 out of 3?
They’ll make it out of the first round, but they really need to win a second series.
I can predict Acuna will still be overrated by the time the season is over.
he nearly went 40-40 last year, which is saying something guven basically every player to do that was a PED user.
The balls were juiced. Regardless, he is a flawed hitter. Pitchers will figure him out.
How is this different from any 22 year old hitter? Seems like you’re the one drinking more of the juice than anyone else.
Balls were juiced for everyone. Were they juiced for his stolen bases? Why aren’t you saying Alonso, Cruz and all other power hitters are over rated also? Alonso struck out only 5times less than Acuna. Doesn’t play the defense of run like Acuna. Seems like there are a lot more people you could fixate on other than Acuna
And I can predict that you don’t know how to correctly form sentences.
Thx for proving you have no argument!
You really showed me!
Yea, because you really backed up your argument with quality facts.
Derr, juiced balls, derr flawed hitter.
This is the guy that’s got that man crush for madbum isn’t
the nationals rotation is stacked and I know the nationals took a hit when they lost Rendon but they made a few decent pick ups this offseason offensively, they signed Thames and Castro plus they have kieboom from there minors and Robles in another year older so let’s see how he adapts and they also signed Harris to help there bullpen so I think they have a real shot to take on the Braves Am I wrong? Thoughts?
I mean the Nationals just won the World Series, and, minus Rendon, return most of the nucleus from that team. So yeah, they’ve got a great shot to take on the Braves lol.
The Nationals didn’t win the division last year, and didn’t have to play the Braves in the playoffs. I still think they’re a quality team, but IMO, the Braves will have the better record…again.
Mets need to dump diaz now.he stinks, eat the money and dump cano too.somehow this trade could be worse than the nolan ryan trade ( which they had to do)
Yea. That trade may go down as the worst in Mets history. It’s still early. Diaz can turn it around, but it doesn’t look good.
But this is a question for a fan of every team..if your team never won the w.s.or has a huge drought and win it this yr, you celebrating or think its a cheap win? Specially with the stupid schedule this yr
yes. any team that wins this year will have overcome a lot of adversity. if anything it’s worth more.
Sure. Other fans will say “it doesn’t count” but in of course it does. With the expanded playoffs we’re looking at 120+ games. It’s a struggle. Every team is playing under these conditions. Whoever wins has really earned it.
This one is historic. The other champions may blend together, but this year will stand out in everyone’s memory. In 10 years, you will still remember the year of the pandemic and only playing 60 games and who won the world series. Honestly, not looking it up, who instantly remembers who won the world series or the super bowl in 2010?
Oof, tough one. Let’s see….
Phillies won in 08, Yankees in 09…
Ah yes, Texas Rangers got punted by the San Francisco Giants in 4 or 5 games, beginning the “Even-Year” dynasty for SF. I recall looking for videos of it on YouTube months ago, boredom being my reason. Didn’t Josh Hamilton put up MVP numbers that year and choke in the postseason? I’m pretty sure Aubrey Huff hit at least one homerun for the Giants in the world series, but those two players aside, I can’t remember anything else about it. I didn’t look it up, though considering this is being typed rather then spoken, I expect some individuals will say otherwise.
I’m not a football fan and only got into sports in 2012, so no clue on the second one.
Marlins will win the division
Braves
Nats
Mets
Marlins
Phillies
Switching gears for a second.
Can anyone please explain to me WHY in the world in the midst of covid pandemic with mlb barely getting off the ground to play 60 games with no fans in in seats, are national televised games such as ESPN or local markets STILL blacked out?!?! I mean the LEAST they can do to compensate the fans and curry favor is lift these REDICULOUS and ASININE rules and restrictions,so everyone can view the games even those who don’t have cable tv and just want to watch them on mlb.tv!! I mean seriously WTF?!?!??!!
And on top of that,they put the Mets on Sunday night then are bussing it to boston.
I live in Vegas and cant watch the Padres in San Diego, or the Angels in Anaheim.
MLB needs to get it together.
Why have blackouts, theres no fans allowed at games????
In a 60 game season, I could see anyone aside from Miami taking it. If any of Acuna, Harper, Soto or Alonso go on an absolute tear for about two weeks, that may very well be enough. I’m picking Atlanta because they’re my team, and they have a legit shot. I wouldn’t want to wager on it, though.
Does anyone else feel as though whichever team loses the least key players will win the division? I picked the Braves but a couple weeks ago I sure wouldn’t have. The Nationals lost Soto which is enough all by itself but if Strasburg’s issues cost more than a couple starts, they might not be good enough for second place.
The Mets have lost to much pitching. At this point I think the Phillies might be the Braves biggest threat. I know the Phillies take a lot of abuse from posters but I think they are capable of more than what they’ve shown these last couple years.
Phillies don’t have pitching, Nola is overrated.
Second part of that post is just not true
I think the Phillies offense is the second-most potent (behind the Braves), but their pitching staff only features two dependable arms in Nola and Wheeler. Stras, Syndergaard, Stroman, and Hamels all carry a certain amount of time-missed and/or questionable health (as Darkside mentioned above) in their respective NL East rotation, and each team’s bullpen has some glaring weaknesses as well. So, I do think it is going to come down to which team can out slug the opponents on a regular basis and, of course, which team can best prevent its players from contracting covid. Regardless of the fact that the Braves just demolished the Mets, their offense stands out to me as having the most impact bats up and down. I do think the Phillies take second place, though, and this year that means PLAYOFFS!!! doesn’t it???
the depth starting is what i find tp be a great equalizer. losing those arms hurts NYM, ATL, and WSH, but mostly because the alternatives arent too great. Feede is the only reserve guy you can feel fairly confidant plugging right in. Mets have some promising SP prospects close, but they have even bigget injury issues, Atlanta has some interesting options but none are proven, and WSH’s are perhaps solid, but aren’t proven either. silver lining of PHI’s situation is there is probably not a big step down if someone like VV gets injured. i like some of the team’s other options, and while none are exactly proven, they’re probably not a huge step down. and Im not 100% sure about dropping Howard right in, but he could at least be this team’s ace in the hole as a dynamite RP option who can slowly be worked into a starting spot.
Marlins sneaking in via wild card at the 8th seed. Book it. Call your bookie. Hit up Vegas. Throw that gov check at it. Whatever, you heard it here. Call me crazy, idgaf.
All Philly has to do is reach the Top 8, roll Nola and Wheeler and hope they can squeeze a win against a top seed. Address any needs in a few weeks with a trade. They are at the point of no return.
This is the 1 season that these poll results mean nothing. Because 16 teams make the playoffs, and the NLEast will prob get at least 3 teams in the playoffs. So good luck facing a team like Wash with Scherzer-Strasburg-Corbin-Sanchez in November.
I still say Mets. That rotation.
Rotation of one so far
You mean the most overrated pitching staff in the last half century? The rotation where only one pitcher has lived up to the hype? That rotation?
The winner will be the Coronavirus
I picked the Marlins but it’s going to be a tie with them and the Braves when the season is cancelled later today.
Why predict when there won’t be any more games to play? Trust me the games are just going to keep getting canceled.
COVID is leading the NL East right now, and I bet that will continue.
COVID-19
Bingo
The Marlins will win it with their 2-1 record. Season is over, people. It was an insult to fans of the game, best to leave this travesty and greed-induced “season” behind us.
insult to you maybe. i know many of us were happy to see it back.
what will quietly hurt the Mets is their awful defense. Braves probably lose game 2 of the Mets OF could run half competent routes
True. But the Mets bats are currently in off-season mode.
Is there not a ‘nobody as no season completed’ option? That’s where my vote would be.
There was no option for no one, since they’re gonna cancel this joke of a season two weeks into it
Acuna is continuing his strikeout trend.
Faulty and Newcomb continue to prove they are bad.
But it is early, right?!