Despite vast interest from around the majors, the Rangers decided to retain right-hander Lance Lynn through at least the rest of the season. The Braves were among the teams in on Lynn, but the Rangers understandably placed a high asking price on the AL Cy Young contender and his year-plus of affordable control. Texas wanted either Cristian Pache or Drew Waters from Atlanta as the headliner in a package for Lynn, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic, though the Braves clearly were unwilling to part with either of the highly touted outfield prospects.
Both Pache and Waters are 21-year-old outfielders who rank among the game’s top 50 prospects, and it stands to reason that the Rangers would’ve pushed for additional pieces to be added. Had either Pache or Waters changed hands in a deal with Texas or another club, they’d have been the highest-ranked prospect dealt in a deadline season that was punctuated more by players to be named later and mid-tier prospects.
The Braves and the Dodgers were known to be in on Lynn, with L.A. reportedly making a late push but ultimately failing to close a deal. Specific names that were discussed haven’t come to light, but Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels made clear that sufficient value wasn’t presented.
“I would not have been proud of some of those deals if we made them,” Daniels told reporters following the deadline (link via Sam Blum of the Dallas Morning News). “I don’t think our fans would have been happy about it, either.”
All of the top baseball operations execs involved in Lynn discussions has made similar statements in the hours and days since the deadline passed. Via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman acknowledged his efforts to add an “impactful” starter who could’ve lined up behind Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw in the postseason rotation. Lynn fits that description following his past season-plus with the Rangers, but Friedman characterized those as talks that never “got all that close.”
Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, meanwhile said in a recent radio appearance on 92.9 The Game that his club set a threshold they weren’t willing to cross — much as they do with regard to free-agent negotiations. “The moves that we could’ve made, for us, would not have been good deals,” Anthopoulos said. “…It just came down to — and it’s no knock on anybody — we made the decision that the price for us, we didn’t think that made sense.”
Daniels and the Rangers will have another opportunity to shop Lynn this winter, and while they’re now only marketing one season of Lynn (and one postseason push involving him), interest should still be high as long as Lynn remains healthy. If the 2021 season sees a return to a standard 10-team postseason field, clubs may be more motivated to add impact pieces like Lynn, knowing that multiple postseason spots in each league have been eliminated. That doesn’t guarantee a huge return for the Rangers, of course, but a full season of a high-end starter on a below-market contract ($8MM in 2021) and the right to make him a qualifying offer after the season should still be able to fetch a respectable haul.
Not sure why Braves wouldn’t include 1 or the mentioned pieces. They could have had Clevinger too with more years of control for one of those guys. Really head scratching
Seems the Indians wanted some major league pieces. Bowman reported some combination or Pache, Riley, Anderson and maybe Waters. Lynn is 34 and only has a year left, I can see why the Braves didn’t want to give up a top 50 prospect for him. Dodgers seemed to agree.
agreed i would did deal ether Lyns is 34 and not worth given waters or Pache up for him so i am glad we did get Lynn if was going to cost use Pache or Waters some time best trade you make is trades you dont make.
That’s a mouthful, Harry.
Except you have to have a place to play those top 50 prospects or they are useless. With Acuna already entrenched, does it make sense to hold onto two other top 50 outfielders?
It’s fun to look at prospect lists and see your team with a bunch of names on there. But until they work themselves into the lineup or the pitching staff they are really nothing but a name and a number..
That’s what she said
Hiflew, they will both join acuna as soon as next year. Markakis and Ozuna are free agents after this season. That leaves Inciarte and
Duvall.
Because of the later draft positions and the lack of international signings, the Braves don’t have any depth to deal from. Pache and Waters are their outfielders.
Good luck with that.
Lol
Good lord, no wonder people think us Southern Braves’ fans are morons..Please god, learn to use some punctuation.
universalclass.com/i/course/grammar-and-punctuatio…
Pretty sure there are 3 outfield positions in mlb.
Acuna in rf.
Pache in lf.
Waters in cf.
That’d be your OF for the next decade.
Atlanta should have traded from their surplus of pitching a few years ago, but hindsight is 20/20
Ozuna should be resigned to fill the new DH spot that will be kept going forward starting in 2021.
Pache would be playing CF in any outfield that does not have Byron Buxton. Just FYI.
engrish?
Hypothetically in that Situation it would be Pache in CF with Waters in LF. Waters could play CF in some organizations but Pache is the better Defensive player.
Pache might even start in CF ahead of Buxton. It would definitely be a fun competition to watch. Buxton is possibly more polished for now. Pache is electric.
I take that with a grain of salt. The Indians wanted a combination of the Braves top prospects (Pache and Waters), top pitching prospect/current default #2 starter (Anderson), or starting third baseman (Riley) plus whatever else. But the Padres grab him for a quantity-over-quality deal without surrendering even one of their top 5 prospects?
That high price screams “Braves leak” and “spin job” because of course the Braves weren’t trading Anderson or Riley.
The issue was the Braves are extremely lacking in middle-yier prospects. Something the Padres have in spades, or they did have..lol
Due to their penalties, the Braves really only have a handful of top position player prospects, other then that all they have is Bryce Ball, Shewmake, and a bunch of high school lottery tickets…The Indians werent going to accept just Pache or Waters, and they weren’t interested in a bunch of players multiple years away..
It was just a bad match in terms of the two teams. Also, in terms of Riley, the Braves tend to view him alot higher than most other teams, because the Braves have invested heavily in this kid emotionally…For better or worse, right or wrong, they love Riley, and think the world of him. He wasn’t going anywhere..I just hope he is able to continue making adjustments and continue proving the Braves correct in viewong him as their Chipper heir to the 3B throne.
With his power and EXCELLENT defense, god he makes Bohm look like a bum lol, he doesn’t have to hit .280+ to be an effective player. However, what alot of people do not realize is Riley is a very capable hitter and not just for power. It would not surprise me at all to see Riley put up a season where he hits .275-.280 with 30+ bombs, while providing the Braves with GG caliber defense at the hot corner..
(And yes, for those about to kill me for the Bohm comment, I am well aware Bohm is not really a bum) The dude is one of the best, young pure hitters in the NL. It is just by comparison, Riley made Bohm look like an absolute amateur playing 3B. Riley has had the benefit of Ron Washington to help him improve dramatically the last two seasons. Hopefully, Philly has someone that can do the same for Bohm, because in that previous series in Atlanta, Bohm’s defense at 3B was nearly unwatchable without cringing…/:
Also, PTBNL’s can be top 5, if that top 5 isn’t on the 60 man player pool this year…
Good decision by the Rangers keeping Lynn because if they traded him it needed to be for the right prospects. If almost impossible to workout a trade with the Dodgers because they like to keep their top prospects.
Yet, they’ve traded for Mookie, Machado, Darvish, etc.
Mr.Fred, Did they give much for Darvish in the first place? What about for Mookie Betts? To conclude what about for Machado? Now, can you tell me? Can you convince me now, if you can.
Red Sox got a great feal for Mookie. Darvish and Machado only had 2 months left of control. They got what they deserved for them.
Darivsh cost the Dodgers Willie Calhoun (No.4 in their system and #60 on MLBs top 100 prospects end of 2017).
Mookie Betts was Verdugo (former top prospect) and Downs ( #47 currently of MLBs top 100 prospects for 2020)
Machado netted the Orioles Diaz (#52 on MLBs top 100 prospects end of 2018).
Did they give up much? Top 100 prospect for 2 months of a guy? I’d say that was a lot to give up value wise.
Orioles got like 5-6 prospects for Machado and Verdugo was in the Betts trade and he’s already an all-star caliber player. And the Dodgers are buyers every year at the trade deadline. I’m willing to bet no team has traded more prospects and young players than Los Angeles at the deadline since 2013
I was gutted to see Alex Verdugo go as I honestly believe he is going to be a superstar. He seems to have a real driven passion.
On the flip side we got Mookie Betts.
From listening to commentary does a lot for clubhouse mentoring other players and Helping them with their games.
Virtually every game finds a way to do some to really positively impact the outcome of the game.
@aussie dodger there’s absolutely no chance of verdugo becoming a star. He was known to be a punk in the locker room when he hasn’t really done much on or off the field to warrant an attitude. He projects as an everyday player that will hit modestly and serve a role on a team but he won’t be anything close to betts. The real prize lies in downs, it will be interesting to see between he and graterol turns out better.
Mindless, verdugo’s attitude is well documented and probably the reason it took him so long to debut to begin with
But so far this year he’s on pace over a 162 game season for a 6+ War season. That’s star level production, especially considering he’s in year 2/6 for control
Idk but Verdugo looks like an absolute stud..Well, at least he has against Atlanta thus far. Dude is taking nasty pitcher pitches and just flicking them all over the field at ease…
So, while maybe it wasn’t Seager or Lux, Verdugo was definitely a big time prospect the Dodgers had to give up to get Mookie…
And all for what
At the time of the trades, all were considered to be less than expected. (by the fans)
Verdugo ain’t no Kiké!
not to mention I miss Volver Volver, Verdugo’s walk-up song…
Verdugo is a great talent. Very good bat to ball skills, a strong batting eye, Great throwing arm(last I saw he was leading MLB in OF assists by a fair Margin), strong defense on a whole, can play CF, and and hit lefties as a lefty. Oh and he’s 24 with 4 more years of control after this year
His two knocks coming up was a lack of power and some attitude issues. It was rumored he was held down in AAA for a full extra year Bc la didn’t want his attitude in the clubhouse and worried he’d be a problem if not starting daily. To that end, he was a teammate and fan favorite in LA, so I think it was always overblown. But it was out there
Good job Braves. Too early to trade Riley or Ian Anderson. With all these penalties MLB dealt the prospects are valuable. Braves are going to be good for years to come. I would rather have had Clevinger than Lynn anyways.
Maybe the Braves didn’t want to go all in on a season where they are already missing their best pitcher.
Pache/waters would’ve been too much for Lynn alone. Padres didn’t even get an equivalent player for Clevinger. Clevinger > Lynn. Rangers FO not very good at taking advantage of peak value
Pretty sure it said Pache or Waters. I can understand the Rangers not wanting to trade him unless the price was right. It sounds like the offers kinda sucked. Personally I am not crazy about what the Indians got for Clev, surely I wouldn’t have liked what the Rangers recieved in a Lynn trade. Now we just hope he doesn’t get hurt and take the supplemental pick.
agreed. both pache and waters are ready and they’re rolling markakis and inciarte out there.
we’re to believe they’ll let 2 rookies comprise their outfield next season? pache, waters, acuna? i doubt it.
they’ll prob sign someone else which means they’ll take away time from one of them again. OR they take away from riley
i’m not buying they wont have a contingency plan for a 162 game season and feel safe rolling out 2 rookies
i’m not sure lynn would have been worth it but don’t think we typically see such perfect fits with clevinger (team needs SP, team needs OF help) often
to add onto this. if you want pache and waters. they should be playing right now. markakis and inciarte should be bench pieces. pinch hitting, giving guys days off
next year you’d be looking at a more season riley at 3rd
and 2 young outfielders not rookies
riley at 3rd. pache, acuna, waters in the outfield
if they keep dh. now you just add a nice dh piece. but instead they’ll continue playing musical chairs with guys who shouldn’t be playing and taking away development time from guys they should be giving it to
UNLESS, they plan on trading one of them
Yeah definitely bench Markakis, the dude is hitting like a complete bum right now…Idk what Snitker and AA are thinking having his veteran bat in this lineup…Morons
first of all, nobody cares about this year. as evidenced by lynn and co. staying put
second of all, you’ve made this up. the main point was if you care about pache and waters they should be up. do you think they’ll hand the 2 starting outfield spots over to rookies next year?
even if their long term outlook is good, they can have a down year. you’re counting A LOT on rookies to do well their first taste of big league ball to give them the starting position.
right now is an awesome time given all these stipulations regarding covid and baseball. this is a great time to get experience, and as said before, hardly anybody cares about the championship this year.
in the little dilemma you created: pache, acuna, waters in the outfield. markakis at dh. solve the problem?
now you’ve let pache and waters develop which would ease the burden on them next year. give them experience, etc. and you don’t take markakis bat out of the lineup.
what do you think they’re gonna do next year? ozuna and markakis are one year contracts. i think they’ll let riley take 3rd if he finishes the way he’s playing right now. so, they’ll prob address an outfield spot because they’ll want to contend, and they’re not going to want to risk their season on rookies under performing. so, once again, it will take time away from pache or waters. so.. they could have gotten something useful out of the large accumulation of position players they don’t have room for and address a need
that’s even beyond getting to the point about clevinger having multiple years of control
Agreed!! Why is Markakis still in the lineup? He just dipped below .350 this week. They should just cut him.
I applaud the Braves, this is not the year to make bold & risky moves. With the playoff situation, anyone in a 60 game season could get hot & win it all. This is an *asterisk* season, save your strategy for the 162 game reality.
Plus the uncertainty with respect to next years revenue, missing one of their best pitchers this year. Took alot of restraint for AA to hold back – he was smart to do so.
Once the situation for next year become more clear in the offs-season then make moves .
Any teams odds of winning a WS this year with 16 teams vs 10 is alot less.
Your odds increase of winning the World Series with the playoff expansion, not decrease.
lol no. With more teams you introduce more random outcomes. Yes for a team who would not have made the playoffs at 10 teams but the upper teams it def lowers there chances. For one you now have to win 4 series rather then 3.
Care to explain how for example the Dodgers have increased their odds of winning a WS with 16 teams in post season?
Marko and Curly, stop trying to bring logic and long-term thinking into a world where the illogical and live for the day rule over common sense.
Sheesh.
Nope. The projected top teams odds do SLIGHTLY decrease–very marginally. But the majority of teams’ odds increase dramatically with expanded playoffs.
Negative. You have to win more games to win a title this year than any year in recent memory
So for the Dodgers, they decrease. Thanks
Any team not only has to win the normal DS/CS/WS stretch, but they also have to win a 2/3 set that never existed before
There’s no way that’s “easier” to accomplish than a traditional year for a team that’s a playoffs team no matter what
Since you don’t believe me, and can’t do the math yourself, I’ll give a link to an article that shows it for you.
blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/2020-expanded-play…
“The big takeaway here is that the very best teams see their World Series odds decrease somewhat, and everyone else’s playoff odds increase significantly. Unless you’re the Orioles.”
This only applies to teams 11-16. For any of the top 5 in each league your odds drop by a significant amount.
You have that extra series to get through.
Look at hockey how many times a #8 seed knocked off a #1.
Anyone who says otherwise doesn’ have a good grasp of statistics/risk/odds.
I’ll give you a real simple example.
Really good poker player has better odds to win a tournament with 1000 entered or 1600 ?
The larger the sample ( teams) the more risk of randomness ( Hot streak by a bad team/Injury etc )
We are not arguing that the bottom teams have an increased chance of a WS – you can’t win it if you don’t make the playoffs.
But the Top 4-5 team each league will have their odds drop and they did not quantify what “somewhat” is ?
Y’all are looking at it wrong. Yes, for the Dodgers the odds decrease marginally because they are so heavily favored. But that’s one team. And it also doesn’t matter for the extra series/extra games when it comes to odds. What matters is playoff spots. With expanded playoffs, over half of the teams in MLB will qualify for the playoffs this year. Statistically speaking, the odds of winning the World Series for teams are drastically higher than any other year in the history of MLB.
I understand what you’re trying to say with the logistics of extra games/extra series, but mathematically it doesn’t matter. You have to be in it to win it. Simple as that. With more spots available to be in it, it increases your chances of winning it all because you have a better chance to be in the playoffs. If you remove the projections from the equation–no bias, just flat odds–every team’s chances increased dramatically with expanded playoffs.
I have degrees in mathematics, petroleum engineering, and geophysics. I think I have a good grasp of numbers.
Not just the Dodgers-all the Top 5 pre-season teams in each league had their WS odds drop once the post season went from 10-16. Odds will only add up to 100% if its 6 teams-8-10 or 16 . Still the same size pie with respect to Odds.
By that he means you can find him at your local We Serve Gas Station…
It is a disease in baseball. GM’s value prospects more than they value winning.
It’s not a disease, it’s smart. Most of your team has to be made up of cheap players, meaning prospects and the 6 years they give you before free agency. Atlanta could have 3 excellent OFs in a couple of years. 2 at league minimum and the other still far underpaid for what he brings. That will allow them to spend big in other places, like the rotation.
It’s not so much of a disease as Gm’s now look at building long term sustainable success rather then the boom or bust model. Boom or bust makes a GM look like a Hero if it works but looking for a job if it doesn’t.
IMO the days of multiple top 100 prospects for 1 guy are over. A bad move on part of a GM could set an organization back years.
Unless that one move is the final piece of the puzzle to dramatically improve a teams WS odds.
I’m not a Braves fan but i respect AA holding onto his guys till he sees what next yrs landscape will look like.
If I were the Braves I’m not sure I would’ve included one of those 2 guys for Lynn… but I had said before in another thread that I think the should have been willing to do so for Clevinger. I know Lynn is actually having a better year statistically but Clevinger came with more team control and is significantly younger. So yeah I more or less agree with you… I find it strange the Braves weren’t willing to include one of the two young OFs for an “ace-caliber” SP with multiple years of control.
Any discussion of clevinger vs lynn almost needs an asterisk. Lynn has outperformed and come out of nowhere statistically-speaking. Take your pick everything has him outperforming his historic talent level, EXCEPT one thing that needs to slam the brakes:
Clevinger does it with a realistic BABIP of .273, within careen norms.
Lynn does it with an unrealistic BABIP of .165….. and Lynn’s BABIP is a full 100 +/- points below his career normal range. It happened in a month of a anomalous season, under a modified schedule, in the weakest “division” (central) in baseball.
He has talent, but he is NOT a true sub 2.xx era ace suddenly as he approaches 34yrs old, and, no team should price him as such.
Rangers play in the West with Houston and Oakland. Lynn’s schedule actually has been pretty rough. 2 series against the Rockies (one in Coors) and 1 against the Padres. He also straight ate Oakland alive the other day.
They would never have given up what the Padres did. They essentially overpaid for Clevinger but only because the three true prospects they gave up were basically blocked for the next 6-8 years in their organization. The Braves do not have that issue with Pache, Waters, Anderson and some other names being floated around for Clevinger.
As for Lynn, the Rangers wanted a top prospect who isn’t much better than Mike Minor over the last three years. Asking price was far too high. Will someone cave in the off-season, maybe, but he isn’t worth what they were asking.
AA is hitting the right buttons so far with the exception of grabbing Hamels over Wheeler. No need to get crazy for a season that will not produce money even if you win it all. This championship may mean something to the players and to the fans of whomever wins it, but fiscally it is junk. The intelligent teams (IE – most of the real contenders) did next to nothing at the deadline.
Pache, Waters and Anderson? They are roughly equivalent to Gore, Patino and Abrams (though they are not as highly ranked) and the Padres didn’t give up any of them. The Padres didn’t give up any of their top 100 prospects in the Clevinger deal. The Braves couldn’t give up any of their second-tier prospects like the Padres did?
To be fair, pads have (had, and possibly still ‘have’) better 2nd tier prospects than Atlanta.
huh?..Padres gave up their #8 & #9 prospects from 2019 rankings and their #7, #8 & #9 ranked prospects in 2020 correct or some combination of? Am I wrong on this?…Not only their top 100 but their top 10 prospects
Nobody off of a Top 100 list (Baseball America, Fangraphs, etc.) was moved in the Clevinger deal.
contreras, tucker davidson, shewmake
is pretty equivalent to the top prospects padres got
braves could have easily afforded it
Contreras, Davidson and Shewmake are roughly the equivalent of Arias, Cantillo and Miller yes. What 3 major league players would the Braves add in place of Quantrill, Naylor and Hedges?
@Javia exactly… we just didn’t match with Cleveland’s needs.
Braves wanted flexibility moving forward hoping Wright, Folty, and Anderson grabbed the 3 remaining spots after Fried and Soroka..Simply wanted and needed an TOR arm this year in Hamels for a post season run..
Hence the 1 year deal. Couldn’t afford to lock up that money in a big contract for several years they might could use better elsewhere..
Same thing for Ozuna signing a 1 yr deal over Donaldson and then having Riley, Pache, and Waters waiting in the wings..
If the Braves want to consistently field their best roster, they cannot afford to lockdown bigtime money in an unnecessary asset..
Yes, obviously, Wheeler would be amazing to have now, but it likely would have also cost them either one of d’Arnaud, Ozuna, or not having their absurdly deep bullpen that has carried them this year..Which they have all combined to help the Braves remain competitive this season, despite their horrendous pitching and untimely injuries…
I agree. We could have had Clevinger and it was there for the grab
it’s pretty obvious that Cleveland wanted proven MLB talent. The Braves couldn’t have matched the offer the Padres did. We don’t have a Quantrill, or a Naylor, or a Hedges.
Prospect wise, we probably could have made a better offer, but it’s not what the Indians wanted.
Unless the Rangers are delusional enough to think they’ll be competing for a playoff spot in 2021, they should have taken what they could get for Lynn.
No. Lynn can be traded in the offseason if a team is willing to give good prospects in return.
Why would the value for Lynn be higher in the offseason?
More teams bidding for his services I guess because no one is really out of contention in the offseason unless they choose to be. Although it seems there were plenty of teams buying last week, so I don’t know.
Its not really an offseason question. Remember the Rangers pull a suplemental pick if they do not trade him in 2021. So an offering GM must meet the price + the value of the pick. GMs value 1st round draft picks pretty highly these days. We shouldn’t because we suck at it.
If they weren’t willing to give up the prospects the Rangers wanted in a shortened season with expanded playoffs where starting pitching is going to be as important as ever (if not more so), why would they offer more when next year’s format will be closer to normal and Lynn is both older and with less control?
Exactly. Lynn’s value dropped the moment the trade deadline passed. Big fail by Daniels as keeping Lynn does nothing to further the Rangers’ rebuild.
looks like they over played their hand. A top 100 prospect but not a top 50 prospect for a old starter. Rangers should have gone for quantity around a top 100 prospect. Now if Lynn goes back to being a good #3 starter they end up with nothing. In the past they stuck onto prospects to long.
I can kind of see the arguement. But we have plenty of medicore prospects. We need a big dog like Waters or Pache. Otherwise I can kind of see keeping and just taling the draftpick after he rejects a QO.
If the Rangers could draft players they wouldn’t be in the cellar right now. A draft pick is essentially ending up with nothing given the Rangers’ recent track record. Their most successful draft pick from 2010-2015 that suited up for them for a significant number of games is Gallo. After that? Alex Claudio. That is not a recipe for success. This organization needs restructuring in a big way. Both the owners and JD are to blame for the poor on-field product.
Value is set by the number of teams willing to acquire Lynn. It seems like right now, it was just the Braves and the Dodgers, 2 teams known to be stingy with their prospects.
If there are more teams wanting to add Lynn in the off-season, then the return could be better.
The FA crop of starters this year isn’t great teams will cut back on spending cost control starters will be in high demand
Not sure I understand Jon Daniels’ rational of holding onto a 33 Lynn who’s market value this year is at an all time high. Does he believe he’ll get more in the off season when teams are hunting available free agents/non-tenders or other potential trade targets? Does he believe a 34 year old Lynn will be more valuable than a 33 year old Lynn who is having a career year?
No. He’s an idiot. Especially after blabbing he’ll trade him this offseason regardless. Sellers remorse already.
That being said- Braves are too scared to ever make moves. If that was the price- have rangers throw in gallo. That’s good value for both sides
I had the same thought… get Lynn plus Gallo and keep one OF prospect to pair with him and Acuña.
I have news for you Jon, the Braves aren’t giving up Pache or Waters in the offseason either. Lynn will never be more valuable and you admitted to a payroll cut/rebuild. Maybe next year when the team is losing 90 games and you trade him at the deadline for significantly less you will see how bad you botched this.
That’s a rediculous ask for a pitcher in his mid-30s who has a very inconsistent track record and only one more year of control. Jon Daniels will regret this if Lynn turns back into a pumpkin next year and they get nothing in return for him.
Lynn has only one season with an ERA over 4.00, and with the FIP to back that up. Pretty hard to do in another era of high offense.
Plus his record of starts over 100 pitches. innings per start etc.
Texas IMO were asking for a Top 50 overall and another Top 100 Prospect and they were not budging off it.
Yes, but in 2018 he had a 4.77 ERA. And if you want to bring up his FIP showed he deserved better, then I will go ahead and counter with the fact his FIP in 2017 was a whopping 4.82 so his ERA should have been far worse.
Basically, he was below league average in one of the last three seasons regardless of which stat you use. That is inconsistent, hence the comment stands.
Just not worth multiple top 100 prospects with one in the top 30 that Texas apparently was asking for in return.
Steve, you leave out that Lynn’s 2020 came from a .165 BABIP… so when we look at sustainability and consistency… there’s that.
You also have to look at his 2018 in context. Lynn did not have a Spring Training that year. He signed late with Twins (week before the season started). He pitched much better later in the season after he got traded (FIP 2.17) with the Yankees. And 2017 was his first year back after Tommy John. How Lynn pitched pre-2016 and post-2018 is much more indicative to caliber of pitcher he truly is without injury recovery/no spring training.
Why JD? The fans didn’t need PACHE!!! I understand shoot for the stars, but dang! I thought Waters was fairly reasonable if we pair either T Frazier or a good bullpen arm with Lynn.
Why not go get Clint Frazier and Clarke Schmidt, plus a lotto ticket? That’s what Lynn is worth, and that could’ve been done. Oh yeah, and the fans would’ve liked it too.
I swear if we asked for Gavin Lux, I and so many other Rangers fans will want to just rip JD out of his position immediately.
I have rooted for JD in the past, but his production has declined He has made savvy deals for Solak, Lynn, Minor ect. But this was a MAJOR screw up. Overvaluing your own players, and undervaluing free agents.
I want Kip Fagg gone, I want JD gone, and I want Bob and Ray to sell to A-rod or some dude right out of high school funded by a billionaire. Make it interesting.
It is time for all of them to be replaced.
Waters is gonna be better than Pache so while Lynn isn’t worth either, Pache would’ve hurt the least.
I have never really bought into Frazier. Honestly man it doesn’t sound like the offers were good at all. We were even kicking around stuff on the message boards that sounds like it was too high. GMs value prospects these days I guess. Now if only we didn’t suck at drafts…
Any pitcher at age 33 is rolling the dice, the Rangers were shooting for a few keys for the future understandable. This season isn’t worth any rash deals.
JD is simply out of touch when it comes to negotiating. That was the case in the Rendon negotiations and it was the case this time. Go ahead and add the negotiations for a possible Minor trade a year ago into that mix as well.
tough spot for JD. Make a trade he thinks is under selling or make no trade at all. With the limited number of starters available on the free agent front he’ll have a chance to sell again, but I doubt the return will be much higher.
Rangers were trying to load up before this season in anticipation of their new stadium. They didn’t get a 3rd baseman but did try and make their pitching staff stronger.
I believe the Rangers will try and upgrade their team again during the off season so they have a competitive team in 2021; the stadium will still be new to fans next year. JD can’t start a rebuild while introducing a new stadium. Not saying he’s going to break the bank but he has to give the impression he’s putting a competitive team on the field.
That’s just it though…JD promised for years that last off season we were going to spend and we ended up with Todd Frazier… I have zero faith that there will be any high quality player worth watching next year.
Any pitcher is a roll of the dice with respect to injury.
Year on Year Lynn is better then Clevenger but the later had the extra year of control. Lynn is Ace level , Clevenger is Great #2
What it boils down to – Cleveland started with a ridiculous asking price ten as teams like the Jays/Braves/Sox started to turn away they lowered their ask to withing the range the Padres was willing to make and the deal was done.
Texas kept firm on their high asking price so no deal was done.
Obvious Cleveland was a more motivated seller then Texas.
Clevinger has been better than Lynn 3 of the last 4 years. Noticeably better.
Not the 2 most recent years (2019/2020)
factoring in the injury risk associated with Clevinger.
Any team paying such a high acquisition price for either will be looking at all factors Injury risk being one.
Clevinger has the year longer control so he’s worth a little more.
But for the next 2 playoff runs i’d take Lynn over Clevinger.
Granted its a small sample size but Clevingers peripheral stats this year aren’t the greatest. FIP/Whip/Hr9/BB9
There is a reason Cleveland received significantly less then what everyone thought. The “incident” wasn’t the only one.
Clevinger was significantly better in 2019 and he was also significantly better in 2017 and 2018. If you are trying to count 6 starts in 2020 you have lost the argument entirely.
2019
Clev 120 IP- 4.1War
Lynn 208IP- 7.5War
How is Clevinger significantly better?
This year they aren’t even close.
Clevinger always has and always will profile as a good #2 with injury risk.
Lynn- Profiled as a #3 and has upped his game in 2019/2020 to profile as a legit innings eating Staff ace.
The guy has 30+ starts over 100 pitches – no one else is even close.
Highest in the # of Quality starts in that period.
But hey none of that means anything right.
Cleveland wasn’t just a seller as they are first in their division with pitching depth. If either team should have been more motivated, it was Texas. The Rangers are rebuilding and have little talent on hand. Keeping Lynn does nothing to help them as they need an influx of talent. Lynn was at maximum value and Daniels blew it by not finding a worthwhile trade. In all likelihood, the Braves and Dodgers made reasonable offers.
IMO – Daniels set his price and played chicken with the other GM’s – he was hoping someone last second would pivot back and bite. That didn’t happen.
Cleveland was the opposite – started high and when Gm’s started to turn away. they took the Padre’s offer before they too could look elsewhere.
I think the asking price may be different in the off season but what they actually get for Lynn won’t be substantially different then they would have at the deadline now. ( unless he blows up and is terrible the last 5-6 starts )
I get the ask for Lynn, above average performance + an affordable 2021 contact which is made more desirable due to Covid.
If there’s one consistent trend in the current front office of the LAD is that they make pickups at the deadline to make their staff sufficiently deep for a long playoff run. Why are they in on the clearly over priced trade chip in the market how are they not in on the dirt cheap “rental” market?
Perfect opportunity to use their org depth to add arms to the pen and rotation. They have key members of their staff who are injury risks and they’ve done little to address that. risk. They never add arms, it’s bewildering they address Robert’s biggest weakness (bullpen management). Had they added a starter to take a game 4 playoff start + a high leverage RP where you can bump Urias to the pen now in theory you’ve added 2 high leverage arms plus added some injury insurance.
Big pic the Dodger front office doesn’t seem inclined to pay the *price* that comes with putting together a WS winner. They’ve wasted Kershaw’s prime, now they’re on the clock with Buehler. Let’s not forget Buehler has had 1 TJ surgery, while a 2nd one isn’t a death sentence to his career it’s not ideal. They are proving out the definition of insanity.
What dirt cheap rental should they have added that would’ve been an upgrade over what they already have?
They’ve acquired rentals in the past and still came up short. Now you’re arguing they should do that again while accusing *them* of the definition on insanity? What?
We may very likely see that the best deadline deal – value over price paid may be the Jays getting Walker. For a meh prospect Walker is best case a #2 behind Ry , worse case a #4 . I am surprised the deal was done so early and more teams weren’t in it.
Walker is a rental for the Jays. That makes it less impressive.
Yes but they gave up next to nothing for a guy with lot’s of upside for Sept/Playoffs. I’m surprised other teams looking for pitching were not in on him. The Risk/Return for the price paid makes it a very Low Risk/High Reward type deal.
How do you know other teams didn’t and Seattle just choose the Toronto offer? Various general managers talk all the time, not just around the trade deadline.
They may have, But this may well turn out to be the best low risk- high return trade made at this dead-line . So i am surprised other GMs didn’t drive the price higher, and that the deal was done so early. Usually if there is alot of interest ,trade’s aren’t made that early unless and offer is overwhelming and trust me the guy the Jays gave up wasn’t .
The other Gm’s were looking at the shiny new toys ( Clevinger and Lynn ) and Aitkens went for the short term low risk- high upside play .
Both Walker and Ray cost very little.
1 you make the acquisitions for the depth, to safe guard against injury.
2 whomever the last two guys are on the staff, they get bumped and now the staff is even deeper. Let’s not forget come the playoffs, rosters get reduced to 26, right?
3 LAD starting staff doesn’t exactly go deep in games on the whole so why not “Roberts-proof” the bullpen by adding another high leverage arm to the mix.
Most of their past deadline rentals were platoon bats and the occasional 2nd lefty out of the pen. Walker (SEA) and Bradley (AZ) would have cost the LAD what in terms of prospects? No one in the top 100 and who cares is it’s what puts them over the top.
Walker cost us (Jays) a 40FV OF Prospect who a the time was our #31/32 prospect.Which would be somewhere around the same for the Dodgers.
I think that might be the deal of the deadline.
No one player guarantees a championship. The Dodgers have gotten better every year since Friedman and Roberts came on board. And now you’re imagining a second TJ surgery for Buehler. That’s nuts. The Dodgers are the best-run organization in the sport. While a WS title would be nice, I have zero complaints about the direction of the franchise. Drafting, player development, payroll management. They are in the hunt every year and will continue along that path. What they need now is a World Series opponent that doesn’t do funny stuff.
Ridiculous take
“They never add arms…” They added Darvish, Hill, Maeda…. the list goes on Stocked the pen with arms….. Always make me shake my head when people post opinions that are so obviously contrary to fact.
Clevinger was the deal that Atlanta needed to make. If I’m not mistaken, Lynn isn’t eligible for a QO so there’s no compensation coming back if he leaves after next year. Clevinger has 2+ and can still get the QO. I’d have moved Pache for Clevinger personally, I just don’t believe in his bat at all.
Except it was a lot more than Pache. To match San Diego it would have been more like Pache, Waters and one of their top pitchers, as well as a MLB ready player or two.
If you ever expected or believed Pache’s bat was the reason he was highly touted, then you are uninformed. The Braves have very little aspiration for him being anything more than a marginal MLB hitter. His defense should compare of be better than Ender from the get go, but with 5-6 years of extreme cost control. That is HUGE in today’s game.
Me personally, I think Pache is overrated because his defense might decline rapidly if he doesn’t get the ‘chunkiness’ under control. That being said, I still wouldn’t move him. As tough as it is to find pitching, with the constant TJ and shoulders problems of todays game, you just have to value fielding propects more highly. You go with a plethora of pitching prospects and hope a few pan out, but when you develop a really strong non-pitcher you just don’t move them.
The Braves always over value their prospects and are super cheap. Funny how teams like the Royals who went all in in 2015 and won. Nobody they gave up for Zobrist or Cueto have made much of an impact and they have a title.
I don’t understand the Braves thought process here. Both Pache and Waters are top 50 prospects, but both are outfielders. They already named Acuna there. If the plan is to use all three in the OF in 2023 or so, that’s not a good plan. First, one of them is not likely to work out. Two, even in the unlikely event that they all work out, your pitching is more important than having your outfield filled with stars. Just ask the Angels.
Rangers seem very flaky and indecisive these days in terms of what direction they want to take the franchise in, might be time for a change in leadership.
Ian Anderson is a stud… riley is coming around… Braves made a smart decision on Lynn… still could’ve grabbed Minor for what the A’s gave up
IMO A’s should’ve given up AJ puk for Lynn than settling for mike minor. Their contention window doesn’t get any easier next year with semien and a huge chunk of their bullpen likely gone. Plus it’s hard to trust puk’s injury history going back to college. Now it’s 3 seasons in a row with injury setbacks. I bet he has a drew pomeranz type career at best. Talented but shuffled between rotation and reliever. Doubt puk becomes a dependable 180-200 inning type
Like the Braves and Dodgers, the A’s did what was best for the longterm health of their teams. Predicting Puke with be Drew Pomerantz? What is your background in scouting?
. Puk has great value. Minor stats are down this year but when presented with the poor defense around him he comes up with as a good swing man. JD didn’t do very bad in the prospectors he was given for Minor. He received a 19 y o OF and a DH/1B prospect that is very young. A’s are not desperate for starting pitching Minor is just a precaution against injuries so why go big for Lynn?
Isn’t Lynn making $10M next season? He signed a 3/$30M deal so I’m not sure how he’d only be making $8M in 2021. According to baseballreference I do see that the deal wasn’t evenly spread out but it does still look like he’s actually set to make a slightly higher than $10M salary next season.
4m SB then 8/10/8
As a Braves fan I’m extremely glad we didn’t trade either for Lynn! He isnt worth Pache or Waters.
I would have been willing to give one up for Clevinger but not both.
Would Texas consider offering Lynn an extension? Being an NL guy, I don’t know when they plan to contend again.
Rangers have a HUGE uphill climb back to respectability. JD should of just gotten anything for Lynn. That team needs a complete overhaul. They could of gotten more for Minor last year. They should of traded Elvis,Odor,Gallo. They either need to do better at the draft or throw big money at free agents. Good players should eventually want to play in Texas now that they have a dome. I would not be surprised if they get rid of Jon Daniels. What impact moves has he made lately
looking at the Braves farm team he could have received some good promising players that were not their 2 top prospects. I would have gone for Wright and another top 20 Brave prospect. A good young arm barely 20 and another good prospect would be a great haul.
Lynn is not a difference maker. Braves needed to get Clevenger.
Very legit comment here. The Braves #20 is better than many teams #10. Texas could have gotten some real talent for Lynn had they not been so stuck on one or two guys the Braves had already stated were untouchable.
Texas will regret not trying moves like this as they continue to be irrelevant for the next decade.
Fact Check Time !
Love how guys on here make statements without any shred of evidence. The Braves Farm is top heavy once they get past the top 6-7 guys they drop off real fast.
Want to know where the # 20 Braves prospect would rank on other teams?
Oak-29th, ARI-51st,SFG#43, LAD-35th,NYY-56th,CIN-41st,LAA-32nd ,Sea-46th,WASN-25th,KCR-48th,CHW-39th, NYM-32nd,Tor-38th
Texas themselves -56th
Getting the picture here?
Sounds like you hit fangraphs on me.
Yep:) Guilty as charged lol .
And that’s why a Braves/Clevinger /Lynn
Their mid-tier just couldn’t compete with the Padres guys in the 7-12 range and like all other GMs felt the Rangers asking price on Lynn was too high.
I think they were smart not too.
Not with one of your best pitchers out and so much variance in this years playoffs.
Other then the Padres the 2nd busiest team were the Jays and they only made low risk /high reward type trades.
I honestly think Cleveland started crazy high-( one good young MLB, 1x Top 50, 1 x Top 100) and teams turned away fast and the Padres had the best combination of Mid Tier prospects and Young MLB.
So rather then keeping him like Indians fans were so adamant about the GM took it.
The Texas GM started high and was hoping a rival GM might blink last second.
And yes, I figured that is where you got it. Before I go on though, I will openly state the Braves system is top heavy and somewhat ransacked over the last couple of years so I should adjust for that. Your comments about be top heavy are still true despite the recent losses to the MLB level. Now that I have admitted some BS in my post above, I will try to help.
When using Fangraphs, they only rank the top 123 currently. All others are lumped in based on their FV group. So, if you aren’t careful and just ‘show infinity’ thinking they are in order, you end up with players after 123 being grouped in bunches. So, in that big list are the org rankings, but they aren’t really truly ordered correctly. Hence seeing 15 Rangers in a row, 5 Dodgers followed by 4 Cubs, etc. Just a big mess. I am thinking you did it that way because when I sorted it that way, sure enough, all those numbers you threw out there were front and center. It makes one think things are not what they really are. They have been called out for it on other posts.
Sad fact is, the only place I know that goes more than 300 deep is baseball america and I don’t quote them as they are paid and it’s kind of bad using them in an argument because others might not pay to see it. Using non-paid services I have a list below for an idea of why I think asking for Pache, Waters or Anderson was too much.
Throwing out the non-prospects in the Clevinger trade (which probably favors Cleveland as they got Hedges, NAylor, and Quantrill for Greg Allen but I will refrain). Even if you call that part of it even, and said the Padres just gave up Arias, Cantillo and Miller for Clevinger..
Baseball America – Arias, Cantillo and Miller are not in the top 100. Braves have 4 in top 100.
MLB – Arias, Cantillo and Miller are not in the top 100. Braves have 4.
Baseball prospectus – Arias (94). While Cantillo, and Miller are not in top 100, Braves have 6.
While I will grant you that my 20-to-10 comment was shameful given that it is nearly impossible to justify, I also think it stands to reason that the Braves #20 might very well be as good as a #10 on a good number of teams with abysmal systems. I didn’t say all, but I did say many, which is probably in error.
Using MLB.COM to cut down research time for this part. Clevinger brought back two 50’s and a 45 overall rating wise. Throw one of the 50’s out due to one less year of control on Lynn and you have a 50 and a 45. Braves 50’s range from their #5 prospect to their #9, while their 45’s range from their #10 prospect to #22.
So, if the Rangers had wanted a prospect level comparison, they should have asked in that range. Maybe something like Bryce Wilson(ov50, #5) and Harris (ov45, #14 and likely blocked by Waters/Pache/Acuna). I seriously think the Braves take that deal and might even throw in another lesser prospect in the mix. Harris has been rising quickly though, so maybe I am wrong about them taking it. Instead, as you stated, Texas started high and I think they refused to back down so they wouldn’t look like they caved.
IMO both Indians and Rangers started with 1 x 55 FV and 1x 50FV with the Indians also asking for MLB talent to make up for the extra year of control on Clevenger.
The Indians were willing to come down alot into the 45+ range and go quantity or quality to diversify the bust risk. They were motivated to move Clevenger.
The Ranger may have been willing to come down just a bit into the 50FV range but were hoping one of the competing GM’s would blink which they didn’t .
I don’t think the Brave’s could have made either deal work without at least one Top 100 overall plus 3-4 in the 8-12 range for Clevenger and 1-2 for Lynn.
Their mid tier is much weaker then rivals. Not just Fangraphs. WhiteSox/Dodgers/Padres/Yanks/Jays etc.
BA recently ranked the Jays 4th overall and it was mainly do to the strength of their Mid Tier guys in the 100-200 rank.
Just to set the record straight. Braves # 20 is a 35+FV guy, so even if he was the best 35+FV of all he’d rank better then 20th in exactly one farm.
Ready for it ? 🙂
He’d come in at 19th on the Nationals lol.
Having a hard look at the Braves farm to land Clevinger without trading any current MLB talent likely would have taken one of your top 4 and 2 more of your top ten plus a couple more in the mid teens.
Not worth in IMO not with Soroka out.
Next yrs financial situation won’t even be close to being known by the time the Off Season starts. Fans in the stands etc.
So i have a feeling alot of small/mid market teams won’t be picking up pricey team options and /or tender contracts on pricey arb guys.
Might be alot of talent come on the market for teams with some financial flexibility to spend.
2019
Clev 120 IP- 4.1War
Lynn 208IP- 7.5War
How is Clevinger significantly better?
This year they aren’t even close.
Clevinger always has and always will profile as a good #2 with injury risk.
Lynn- Profiled as a #3 and has upped his game in 2019/2020 to profile as a legit innings eating Staff ace.
The guy has 30+ starts over 100 pitches – no one else is even close.
Highest in the # of Quality starts in that period.
But hey none of that means anything right.
Good points. Clevinger had missed part of last year, Over the last four years though, I think any team would take Clevinger over Lynn as that ‘October arm’ pickup. Both solid but the Braves would not have paid asking price on either.
It sucks sometimes as a Braves fan. It’s really a question of being a fan of a team like say .. the Marlins, who win it all once a decade but suck all the other years, or a fan of the Braves who win once in a lifetime but make the playoffs very often.
I should add that I am old enough to still hurt from trading prospects like the below for vets to try to get us over the hump.
Brett Butler
Adam Wainwright
Charlie Morton
Jermaine Dye
It’s not that the Braves haven’t made some great trades where the prospects didn’t outweigh the get (Grissom, McGriff, Renteria, and Sheffield), but those were all bats. I almost never question trading for bats. I guess it’s just seeing what those prospects do for the next 15 years versus a short time vet acquisition that ends as a playoff loss can be really disheartening.
ERA: Clevinger. Lynn
2017-. 3.11. 3.43
2018-. 3.02. 4.77
2019-. 2.71 3.67
So Clevinger has given up an average of 3/4 of a run to 1 run less per game over the last 3 years.
You are totally discounting the injury risk of Clevinger 2017/2019. He’s had one full year past 3 . And teams put alot more weight in recent results ( now and past year ) then 2-3-4 yrs ago.
For this post season i’d much prefer Lynn heading my rotation then Clevinger.
That says nothing about intangibles like club house chemistry etc.
There’s a reason Cleveland didn’t get a top 100 guy and took the Padres offer instead of just keeping him and trying again in the off season.
Not at all sure why the Braves didn’t want to include Waters. He has dynamic talent ,but his hit tool is such a mess that he strikes out so much he impacts the jet stream and its only gotten worse as he has moved up the ladder. I know he’s still young and the tools are loud (but there are a lot of loud tool guys who can’t hit MLB pitching), but the Braves should take a look at the “can’t miss” Kyle Wright. Two years ago he could have been a major piece for a deal for a work horse SP that could help you win a World Series. Today? He would be merely a throw=in for such a trade. The Braves chose to hold onto a hopes and dreams prospect instead of making a legit run. Their rotation is a joke compared to what they will have to go through, with the likes of LAD and SD.
Now, if Waters was PART of it and they also wanted Riley and one of their pitching prospects then yes that’s too much. Riley is showing some real signs this year in terms of recognizing pitches and taking what he can hit. If Austin can keep his K rate on the South side of 30% he’s going to be mash for 10 years, the kid has obscene power.
It’s really easy to critique these would be deals with a Monday morning quarterback mentality. Nobody knows for sure the exact details of these hypothetical trade scenarios. As a Braves fan, I have come to trust in AA’s judgement. While I’m disappointed that we weren’t able to solidify the rotation, I am happy that AA didn’t trade away our future for the likes of Lance Lynn simply to appease the fan base. These are the same people that were screaming to sign Kimbrel or Bumgarner. Time will tell, but I think they may have even dodged a bullet with the Donaldson contract as well.
I’m not a Braves fan but i agree with you 100%.
Other then the Padres GM who was basically wheeling and dealing to have any chance of saving his job . Every other GM was conservative and risk adverse . Alot of unknowns ahead.
1-Expanded playoffs adds alot more randon outcomes.
2-Who knows the Situation for next year and what revenues will be.
3-Next CBA and what that might entail.
If they hadn’t lost Soroko i can see AA being more willing to cash some chips.
Sorry to duplicate comments
Look, I think Lynn isn’t worth a big time prospect. Clevinger yes, Lynn no. But here’s my beef…. if we refuse to trade our talented prospects… then why don’t we play them???? Pache over Ender all day!! Wright over Erlin all day.. both can pitch equally bad but at least Wright has upside …. frustrating! Trade them or play them at this point! Let’s gooo!!
Pitching is so bad in this rotation try anyone who has any upside……. eventually a prospect becomes dead weight or helps the big club.
Exactly. I don’t understand this long leash on Erlin, who stunk again, and short leash on guys like Wright, Wilson, etc.,… we know what erlin is. He stinks…. at least the others can perform just as bad but have upside
Erlin belongs at double A ball……
He belong on another teams AA
I can understand not the Braves overpaying in players now, which was AA’s reasoning as I understand and not money. Now let’s see him change tune on money with free agents this winter and not sign anyone other than a broken down has been.
*understand the Braves not overpaying
Broken down has beens like Ozuna (.301/.390/.624/1.014OPS), Markakis (.318/.384/.515/.899OPS), and d’Arnaud (.322/.355/.517/.872OPS)? I say, “Bring ‘em on!” People complain a lot about the ATL FO and AA on this site, but the facts over the last three years tell a different story. This is an excellent, well-run, exciting team, and AA deserves a good bit of the credit for that.
Oops! I forgot Duvall (.250/.296/.520/.816OPS). Did I mention this quartet (Ozuna, Markakis, d’Arnaud, and Duvall) has 25 home runs between them, more than Freeman, Acuña, Swanson, and Riley combined? When we say our bedtime prayers, we Braves fans should whisper our thanks for AA’s brilliant ability to sign these kind of old has beens.
And there goes Lynn’s trade value, not just for not trading him at the deadline, but he got his ass kicked by the Astros. So price is down even more now