Oct. 6: There are “strong indications” that Clevinger will get the Game 1 nod, Robert Murray reports. H’s thrown a pair of flat-ground sessions and a bullpen session recently.
Oct. 5, 8:54 pm: The Padres are deciding between Clevinger and Chris Paddack to start tomorrow’s game one against the Dodgers, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Tribune. Both threw bullpen sessions on Sunday, and if they deem Clevinger healthy enough, he’ll get the ball.
Starting Clevinger in game one would be an interesting call, because it could also set him up to start a potential game five on short rest. The Padres might be hesitant to do so given the injury concern. Perhaps more to the point, starting Clevinger tomorrow would mean Paddack would not be able to go in a potential series-deciding game five.
9:33 am: The Padres are “optimistic” right-hander Mike Clevinger will be able to return for their National League Division Series against the Dodgers, hears Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). However, fellow starter Dinelson Lamet “likely won’t be ready for this round,” Nightengale adds. Both pitchers missed the playoffs’ opening set, but San Diego leaned heavily on their bullpen to advance past the Cardinals in three games.
Clevinger has generally seemed the more likely of the duo to work his way back to the mound this week. Sidelined since September 23 due to an elbow strain, the 29-year-old threw a “high-intensity” bullpen session yesterday, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). The highest-profile of San Diego’s myriad deadline season acquisitions, Clevinger has a 3.02 ERA/4.15 FIP in 41.2 innings between the Indians and Padres this season.
Lamet emerged as an NL Cy Young contender this year, pitching to a 2.09 ERA/2.48 FIP across 69 innings. Unfortunately, he exited his final start of the regular season with biceps tightness. The Padres have until tomorrow to formally set their NLDS roster.
Based on the information I thought Lament had a higher chance than Clevinger to make it back, but I guess not. Padres really need both, but I guess 1 is better than none. Still who is going to pitch if they go 5 games? The Dodgers crush Paddack, so I hope he isn’t sent out there.
Paddack is a two pitch guy. fastball and change up. If he can’t locate his change, he gets into trouble. The hitters just sit on the fastball and crush him.
Lamet is the same way, fastball and slider. But he’s a lot more consistent with his slider than Paddack is with his change.
I think the bigger difference between the two is that Lamet can locate his fastball consistently
When Lamet first came up his command had a 70 grade. I assume he will get back to that whenever he fixes whatever is wrong with him.
Ideally you don’t go 5 games, in a perfect world.
But game 1 and 3 should be an opener situation just to give the pen time to recooperate for games 4 and 5.
Adams, Altavilla, Patino, Richards should see an uptick in usage games 1 through 3 before handing it over to the regulars.
Id venture to toss out Richards game 1 followed up by Strahm(heard he might be out) or Morejon after 2 times through the order.
You give Davies the ball game 2 and hope for better results.
Game 3 maybe you start Stammen again, switch to Hill, then Patino and Pagan.
Game 4 if Strahm is healthy you start him then switch to Paddack.
The Nats rode 2 SPs (albeit great ones) and a 21 year old bat to a WS last year, and most of the recent WS champs have been the result of key SPs (thinking of Verlander, Madbum, even David Price in ’18). So the status of Lamet and Clevinger is most certainly relevant, especially given that they are top 15 SPs in the NL, and after that the Pads lack a top 50 guy. I don’t give the Pads much chance to win a series without at least one of those SPs. But if they had them both and they were healthy, I’d slightly favor SD in this series based upon strength of lineup, slumping LA bats, and bullpen (even without Yates). SD will get even better next year, so LA will need to improve to keep up.
idk how healthy Clevinger is. If hes 70-80% id rather not include him and opt to carry another pitcher who can give us a couple innings for 3 games this series.
I’ll take Clev at 70-80%. Who else are you going to throw out there for multiple innings with no Lamet? Richards hasn’t been used as a starter since mid September. Patiño hasn’t been stretched out all year. Are you really going to call up Gore?
Multiple innings during the series. Not multiple innings in 1 game.
As in 1 inning game 1, 1 inning game 2, 1 inning game 4. The staff is taxed. A 70%-80% clevinger might not help alleviate that issue.
Another pen arm would.
Richards isn’t being used as a starter. Hes being used as an opener. Hes going to be on a hitter limit. Max 2 times through the order……or 1 time through the order and if he runs into 2 or 3 lefties after first time through the order switch him out.
Hes not going to be expected to go out there and pitch 6 or 7 innings like a starter would.
I agree that Clev won’t be expected to go 6-7 but even 3-4 innings in the series for 1 or 2 games at 70-80% is worth the risk. You made the point that the bullpen is taxed. You had a reliever who was on the roster, Altavilla, who did not pitch in the WC series. Strahm is pitching on one leg. You traded a lot of young players for Clev to pitch in the playoffs. You have to throw him out there given all the circumstances, especially with no Lamet.
You can be both optimistic and realistic.
You can believe this team will play hard, go out and compete, and root for them. But you can also be realistic that with injuries and tired arms it could go wrong fast.
Bullpen has had plenty of rest now. You do need the starters to go 5+ innings and we would be in business.
Without Lamet, it is going to be tougher.
The Padres will need major offense to win this series.
Josesportsfan- surely the teams medical and coaching staff won’t send Clevinger out there unless they’re 100% sure there’s no risk involved. Can you imagine the fallout if a serious procedure like TJ was needed? The team would’ve traded all those pieces just for a few innings of Clevinger. It would be foolish to send Clev out there if there’s the slightest chance of injury. Surely you have to have one eye on his 2021 campaign in SD
remember, the source is Nightengale, so allow for corrections later
You’ve got to put Lamet on the roster even if it’s only a 50% chance that he’s ready to go by a potential game 5.
Nobody’s a bigger Padres fan than I am, but I doubt there will be a game five.
Fellow huge padres fan here. Are you saying we are going to lose or win in less than 5?
I will be pleasantly surprised if the Padres can win this series, let’s put it that way.
If you would be the biggest padres fan, you would have faith this team can pull it off. I know we went 4-6 against the dodgers but we faced them early on when we had no bullpen and no Clevinger. They purposely didn’t throw him out there in the late dodgers series because barely any dodgers have faced him and they didn’t want the dodgers to get an early look at him knowing knowing he was probably going to face them in the playoffs. This Padres team is not like any previous team before. They’ve showed that every time they get counted out, they come back. You have to keep the faith and believe in this team if you are the padres fan you say you are.
Big difference between being a fan and being a homer. Any team can win 3 of 5 against any other team in a pinch but there is no team in MLB that is more complete than the Dodgers.
They have been complete for several years and how many championships have they won? I know they got cheated out of 1, but they had their chances other years.
I hope they win, but I don’t worry about it too much because I can’t control it. The Padres haven’t won in 51 years, so while it would be great if they did win, I just naturally expect the worst and hope for the best.
Well, they have “won” (2 pennants, a few division titles), just not a WS. The Dodgers haven’t exactly had much WS success in last 3 decades either
They’ve had one-off years here and there. They haven’t had a club that is consistently in the thick of it year after year like the Dodgers or Yankees or Braves. They’re finally building a pretty decent roster that can go toe to toe with anyone, the nucleus of which should be playing here for quite a while. I doubt that SD will procrastinate for too long on locking up Tatis the way the Indians have done with Lindor.
the Dodgers find a way to get eliminated each year. The Padres, even without Lamet can win this series
Yep, lets forget 2 of the last 3 years they were eliminated by teams that cheated and had massive scandals after the fact!
and Wash was the champ. LAD should have won that series, but if you’re gonna be eliminated, best by the champ
Not winning championships doesn’t make them less of a team. And it’s not like their window is about to close. As a fan, I would like to see them win a World Series, but them not doing so doesn’t detract from the enjoyment these recent Dodgers teams have given me. I’ve been a fan since 1968 and this is easily my favorite run of teams by far. These guys are just a likable bunch on a number of levels. I strongly prefer them to the Los Angeles Huggers of my youth. My main concern with this team is having two rookies penciled in as playoff starters. May and Gonsolin are outstanding, but the post-season is a big jump. It remains to be seen how that plays out in empty stadiums.
I hope they secure El Niño when that day comes, will be rioting in streets if they don’t. It does seem as though ownership is committed to long term quality, I sure grew tired of the fire sales and serving as AAA feed to Boston and Chi.cago.
Right? Melvin Nieves. A name every long time Padre fan should remember.
Ha, almost forgot about Nieves.
McGriff for Nieves
Yeah. Ownership traded the best, most consistent power hitter in the game for Nieves. This when the Braves had Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko and Javy Lopez sitting there as their top prospects. Any other team in mlb would have told the Braves “We get one of those 3 at least or you don’t get McGriff.” But every team in mlb knew that the Padres were going to trade McGriff no matter what they got in return. Just to save money. Thank God those days are over!
Sick of hearing about these pitchers injuries. All teams have injuries. That’s why you need plenty of depth to win championships.
The Nats didn’t have much depth. Just 3 elite starters and 1 pretty decent one
The Nats also had off-days between some of the games. This season is completely different.
Good point
It’s the timing and the day to day nature of their injuries that make this newsworthy and that’s why there are constant updates.
Obviously its tough for the Braves that Soroka was out this year, but we’ve known he was out for the year since early August. Similar with Verlander, another big loss but he already underwent Tommy John so he’s definitely not in the mix to return. There’s a sense of finality to these injuries.
With Lamet and Clevinger being day to day after they were healthy up until the last week of the season, anything could happen so it’s a very relevant topic.
Themed you can bet if Kershaw and Buehler were injured and out we’d be hearing plenty about it!
I’m not a Padres fan but I kind of feel bad for them… they’re a young team that really went “all in” at the trade deadline and actually had a chance to compete for the first time in a LONG time in the postseason. And then literally the last week of the regular season they loose, essentially, their 2 best pitchers. That’s just such a tough blow and one that really sucks for a young team trying to finally break through after so many years of being a not-so-good team. I’m a Red Sox fan by default but am kind of rooting for them, as they seem like a fun team to watch and have a lot of younger guys that are really hungry to win. It’s just unfortunate for them that they’ve basically lost their top two starting options!
The Padres are still building a very deep, very good club. Win or lose, this won’t be one shot followed by a Marlins style fire sale. They will be active this winter and will be back next year and for years to come.
Curious:what do you see the Padres doing this winter?
Roster is virtually set already. Resign Yates and Rosenthal priorities 1a and 1b. Richards will probably walk up I-5 back to the Angels, leaving a starter spot for Gore. Pads should be in the Bauer sweepstakes; let’s see if their offer is good enough to compete with some higher offers elsewhere. That would eliminate the opener situation that we rolled with. Bauer, Sunshine, Lamet, Davies, Gore rotation. No Bauer keeps Paddack in the rotation. Lineup and bench will be virtually identical, sans Jason Castro. He will probably be allowed to walk.
I don’t see our Padres having the money available to get anywhere near Bauer. Especially not if they are going to try to sign Yates and Rosenthal who should be a bigger priority.
Lamet, Clevinger and Davies are an excellent start to a rotation. I see the Padres giving Paddack at least another year to try and turn things back around. He had an awesome full 162 game rookie season and a bad 60 game sophomore campaign. I don’t think the Padres will start shoveling dirt on his body yet. That leaves Morejon, Gore and Patino all competing for 1 spot.
Glad they didn’t unload Wil Myers though they sure tried. But I wonder if they are still considering it as a way to free up cash ($20mil) to address other needs. He would now certainly draw interest but parting with a guy on pace for 290/39/120 would be ballsy. Is Davies locked up for next year?
Yes, Davies has 1 year of control left after this one.
For example, how would the Nats have done last year if Strasburg and Scherzer were injured a week before the playoffs?
They should carry 15 pitchers this round to give them more flexibility with this. They didn’t use anyone off the bench last series aside from Profar pinch hitting for Moreland that one time.
It’s clear that they also don’t view any of their position players as “platoon” guys aside from Moreland with Profar. They’ve shown this year that they are going to let Grisham, Hosmer and Cronenworth all consistently hit against lefties, which basically means that carrying a RH pinch hitter like Campusano to balance the bench out is a wasted roster spot because they won’t ever use him. Pitching depth is going to be challenged this series, might as well take him off and use his spot for an extra arm.
agree, replace Campusano with an arm.
Remember, this scoop comes from the notorious Bob Nightengale, which if true to misin-form means the opposite is more likely: Clev sits, Lamet starts game 1 or 2.
Ugggh! Stop! This is making my brain hurt!
First Clevinger had an elbow strain (meaning tear). I was prepping for a second Tommy John surgery announcement! Then it was a subluxation. Now I have no clue what exactly is wrong with either pitcher. Whether they will be back tomorrow or never pitch again. Who knows.
I was just mocking Nightengale. He’s had a habit of getting things wrong.
Clev has thrown a bullpen session and by all accounts did well. Lamet is still playing catch. The Padres are playing the long game here. They’re not going to take any chances with those two arms, even if it means losing the series.
Looks good for Clev. Lamet might still go (game 3?) but we’ll know for sure by 10 am tomorrow.
Paddack is so screwy right now I’d be stunned if they risk putting him back out there, even if on a short leash.
Potentially starting an unhealthy pitcher on short rest in Game 5. Hmmm….
Even game 1, in a 5 game set?
And what if he comes out less than 100%? He’s been back and forth on feeling great then not. Are you willing to guarantee he sits in LCS to get another pitcher on the roster? Lot more questions than just can he possibly start imo
Right. And with no days off between games, pitching depth will be vitally important in a five-game series. Heck, the Padres themselves just used nine pitchers to win an elimination game. A shutout! If Clevinger and/or Lamet aren’t 100% ready to go, then having them on the roster is a recipe for short-term failure and possible long-term health disasters. Set up your pitching without those guys. This would include who pitches which innings in the event of a couple of bullpen games. That is more manageable than having empty roster spots. It might even be disconcerting to the opposition. As a Dodger fan, it’s novelty would make me feel uneasy. I would hate to face it.
i do believe the Padres will only put them on if fully healthy(clev/Lamet). Because most everything you said is valid.
the no off days makes it real unappealing to do multiple bullpen days tho, unless they have someone who eats a bunch of innings in the middle.. You still need those guys in the other games too
not like the padre rotation lit STL on fire. Planning to do a pen game(or multiple) has a lot of risk in this setup to me, of burning guys out
IMO, they should have 4 starters, and then if they decide to throw someone short rest that starter is in the pen. but what do i know? haha
Since they will be the underdog, doing something unconventional with their pitching might work for the Padres if they’re short of legitimate starters. Right, Mackenzie Gore?
As a Dodgers fan, my main concerns are having two rookie starting pitchers in the post-season and the fact that Bellinger and Seager have never hit in October. May and Gonsolin need to handle the moment. With Cody and Corey, they have to come through eventually, right? Seager showed signs against Milwaukee. Waiting on Bellinger, who has never hit a post-season HR at Dodger Stadium. Maybe it will work in his favor that home games will be elsewhere. Padres, Braves, Yankees would mean they have earned it.
Lamet, Clevinger and Davies are the only Padre starters with ERAs under 4.00 this year. If they can pitch without risking their long-term health they have to be on the roster. Yes it’s a risk but it is far less of a risk than going into a playoff series against the Dodgers without your 2 best pitchers.
I do not have any doubts about May or Gonsolin. I don’t really see playoff games in empty stadiums being an entirely different affair. Starters have occasional bad games. I think May and Gonsolin have the same chance of having a bad game as they did during the regular season. They didn’t have many.
Paddack on the other hand needs to rediscover his premium command and the life on his fastball. I don’t know if his problem is mental, mechanical or if he is just off. If he doesn’t rediscover his form he is close to useless for the playoffs. They have to give him a chance but I see him as being the biggest risk among starting pitchers in this series.
Gonsolin and May worry me (as a Padre fan) for the opposite reason. They seem to both have a free and easy make up and might not feel a lot of pressure and overachieve. They sure handled the Pads well in the last critical series. Whereas Kershaw…
In other news
Stanton: Still strong af
Professional at-bat after professional at-bat with that team. They’re toying with some darned good starting pitchers. Yankees-Astros would generate some interest. I usually don’t care about that stuff but gotta admit it would be good for the game at this point in time.
From a viewership point yankees astros and dodgers Braves would be huge draws. Ultimately getting another crack at astros and us getting the win would be huge. But I think it will be dodgers versus Yankees as of last year that has been the most watched series in baseball.
It’s great that the indications are Clevinger for game 1, but the fact that it’s a choice between him or Paddack means Lamet is likely off the roster this round.
Maybe we see Mackenzie Gore sneak onto the roster to give them a 4th starter…