Next year’s group of free agents is scheduled to feature a star-studded group of shortstops, as Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez are all due to reach the open market then. The upcoming winter’s shortstop class pales in comparison to that bunch, but there are still a few household names set to become available. As far as veterans go, Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons lead the way. The question is: Which of the three would you prefer to sign this offseason?
The qualifying offer could serve as an impediment for all three players, as each could conceivably receive one. There may not be a better candidate for a QO among the trio than Gregorius, a 30-year-old who’s coming off his latest effective season with the Phillies. He was a key part of the Yankees’ roster from 2015-18, combining for 14.6 fWAR, before taking a step back in ’19 during a year cut short by Tommy John surgery on his left elbow.
Semien, also 30, has enjoyed the greatest peak season of anyone in this group. He was a 7.6-fWAR player with Oakland back in 2019, but Semien was an average to slightly above-average contributor in the years preceding that, and he fell back to earth in 2020.
Simmons, who turned 31 next month, has never been an offensive juggernaut, but a combination of respectable work with the bat and all-world defense have propelled him to a stellar career with the Braves and Angels. There’s no denying Simmons is one of the greatest defenders in recent memory at any position, which could serve him well as a free agent.
In a vacuum, Gregorius looks like the best choice here. He’s most likely to command a multiyear deal and a qualifying offer, but that doesn’t mean every team would prefer him over Semien or Simmons. Keep in mind that Semien and Simmons may not be saddled with a QO, which could make one or both more appealing than Gregorius. All things considered, then, which of these established shortstops would you prefer?
(Poll link for app users)
Dansby Swanson!
He’ll do for now though it would be nice to have Simba back. But that 2022 crop has several guys that are better than Dansby.
Simba can’t hit and his range is slipping because of chronic ankle issues while Dansby is likely to win his first GG and is better at the plate
Obviously you have not looked at his numbers. Simmons has vastly improved offensively since he left the Braves and we don’ know which Dansby we are going to get. I’m not saying Dansby is trash, just that the numbers don’t support the idea that he is better than Simba.
I’m not sure what stats you’re looking at, but Dansby has the edge over the last 2 years in virtually every offensive stat – OPS, HR, etc. It took Dansby a little while to click in the majors, but now that he has, it’s pretty clear his trajectory is up and Simba’s is down.
I wouldn’t take Simba over Dansby unless my training staff developed a time machine. Dansby is the better SS of the two presently.
The question is who gets Ha-Seong Kim. I know this is veterans, but Kim is projected to be quite good, and he’s 25.
Kim will also be significantly cheaper, yet is projected to be a 3-4 WAR contributor and is also quite a bit younger, as you noted. I’d roll the dice on Kim, who could outperform these three guys. If he’s a bust, look to the free agent class next year.
I think Gregorious has the most likely chance of putting up the best offensive numbers, but they won’t be superstar numbers. If any of the above put up AS numbers or better it’s going to be Semien but he also has the highest chance of being a total bust. Whereas Simmons will most likely post average offensive numbers but may well offer the most WAR because of his defense. If I were a GM I don’t think I’d be willing to give any of the 3 a big $ long term deal. But I’d be open to a 1-year “show-me” contract for higher AAV with Semien and willing to give a longer term deal to Simmons. Gregorious to me, his OBP has never been high enough to warrant the kind of $ I think he’ll get — so if I were a GM I think I’d stay away from overpaying for him unless my team was really desperate for offense from the SS position.
Only in a small park
If I were Semien and the A’s tender a QO he should do exactly what Ozuna did and bet on himself on a 1 year deal. If he could Somehow replicate that 2019 production, he could probably parlay that into a 5 year deal. In 2019, he was one of the most valuable players on the planet, 8.9 WAR really is superstar level production, too bad he’s only flashed that type of brilliance once in his career.
The problem for that in this specific instance is that he’d then be in competition with much better SS next year, while this year he can argue he’s at the top of the class. Even if he improves on his 2019 numbers, he’s not beating out Lindor, Story, Seager or Baez – so he should probably take the best contract he can get this year, rather than trying to take the Ozuna route.
Yea you’re right Dark23, I didn’t even consider the SS class next off-season.
That’s ridiculous. No team is giving a 32 year old shortstop a 5 year deal. Semien is a league average hitter who only plays league average defense because Matt Olson is at 1B. If a team doesn’t have Matt Olson at 1B you have a below average defender and below average hitter.
Like I said, IF he CAN replicate his 2019 numbers (that’s a big if). In 2019 he broke out and was worth 8.9 WAR, which is ridiculous production and his OPS+ of 139 suggests he was not a below average hitter that year. 8-9 win shortstops don’t grow on trees. But you are probably right, I didn’t consider the SS class next year and he’s actually a bit older then I thought. Still if he put up 8 or 9 WAR he would easily be looking at 3, probably 4 years with a high AAV.
I didn’t consider Olson either, I do remember when Semien first came up he lead the league in errors, but then again I don’t watch too much West action. The games are too late out here,
These guys already are in competition with next years crop. Every GM has to be considering what the opportunity cost is of commiting to one of these guys if Lindor/Story are on the horizon and they have a need at SS.
If you could get Simmons on a 1 yr deal it seems unlikely his glove would slump and then you can still try and get Lindor next year. The other guys have too much value tied into more fluky production and aren’t worth draft loss and missing out on a better SS if that is more than 1 year need.
If you’ve got a good prospect that you project for 2024 though than maybe signing one of them seems smart.
Simmons might be the cheapest of the three and provides the most stability. He seems like the best value
He’s taken more than 600 PAs twice in the last 6 years and 3 times total in 9 years. Only play 1/2 his games this year and hasn’t had a 600+ PA in a season since 2018. Not sure he’s quite as stable as you may think
And he has a big chance of regression, due to a reliance on skills that tend to age faster and can be lost after one bad injury… so I’d be wary of giving him more than 2 or 3 years on a contract.
I wouldn’t give more than a two year contract to any of the three. Defense is a young man’s game, and all three are now in their 30s and have shown signs of fielding regression already.
I’d like to see Didi in ATL at 3rd base.
Honest question, after TJS, can he really play 3B consistently? I haven’t watched him much so can’t say
Arm strength still rates as a 70 on the 20-80 scale. Bigger question might be does he have enough bat for 3B.
He’s got more bat than Riley for sure. He’ll hit 25 homers or so and have a good average and obp.
Didi has a career OBP of .315, he does not have good obp. His value comes from his glove and his power but he doesn’t typically take many walks…. at all.
I don’t think Riley has an obp above 3 yet so Didi’s is much better
I have more faith in betting on the potential of Riley over the next four years than paying for the likely cost of Didi for that same time period. Riley cut down his strikeout rate considerably this year and the kid still has not had 600 plate appearances at the major league level. I wouldn’t give up on him so easily.
I think the Braves could invest that money you would spend on Didi in much better ways.
Dont think Baez belongs in the conversation with seager, story, lindor or Correa. Dudes had 2 good years projects to be more of a simmons with pop, low batting average and obp great glove.
Side note: Anyone else hate joe buck? This guy is worst announcer and comes across as a dbag. Wasn’t he suppose to retire after 2019?
Absolutely agree….Buck is the worst announcer who can not just shut up….he also has a thing for Bostons petey…can’t stand watching anything he broadcasts.
Agree 100%. Buck is terrible. He is boring enough to put you to sleep.
I have never ever once heard someone say “You know who’s really good at their job? Joe Buck.”
You know you are awful when you make Jim Nantz seem good.
Maybe not but Baez is for sure in convo w this years class. That’s why he’s worth mentioning.
Okay so if no one likes joe buck how does he keep coming back? Dude is cancer
Fans whining about announcers is humorous to me. They apparently think knocking someone else makes them somehow superior. I wonder what these malcontents do for a living that makes them so high and mighty.
The really interesting thing about Buck is that fan bases of *all* teams feel like he’s against their team.
I listen to music not commentary. A gift from a former girlfriend. So I don’t have any idea what kind of stuff he says. But just the fact of how so many fans are absolutely convinced he’s rooting against them makes me think he’s probably doing something right.
Pretty sure Buck likes the Cardinals. That’s his team, right?
I think Buck’s biggest challenge is his pretentiousness. I’ve seen him interview several big-name sports athletes who had respect for Buck’s father; and Buck, in an attempt to impress/inject tasteless humor, actually insulted the sports professional he was interviewing.
I think it’s that type of sophomoric behavior coupled with his narration style, upon which many baseball fans espouse such aversion toward Buck.
I personally enjoy listening to good commentary during games…it completes the portrayal of the live game, imho.
My opinion of Joe Buck went way up after his appearance on Brockmire. He was absolutely hysterical and poked fun at himself and his profession all the while holding a grudge against his former nemesis. The fact that he agreed to play that part shows he’s a good guy off the job and doesn’t take himself too seriously. I’m a fan.
@Conner Byrne
Didi had TJS to his right elbow. It was Gleyber that tore his left UCL.
Planning for next year’s crop could be dangerous as well. There are 5 All Star level shortstops listed, but any or all of them could sign extensions before next year. The Rockies have a history of signing homegrown stars to long term deals the year before free agency. If Cleveland trades Lindor, I would think the acquiring team would try their hardest to get an extension there as well. And with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Astros, each of them will likely have the money to sign their guys as well. If I were a betting man, I would think Baez would be the most likely of the 5 to hit the open market
Yep, almost every year there’s an article about how much better the following year’s free agent crop will be. Then a year’s worth of re-signings turns it into essentially the same market as the previous winter.
i still believe CLE might extend Lindor. they will alianate all of their fanbase after saving so much money with their pitching trades only to get rid of Lindor too.
If I needed a SS, I’d go Semien out of the three. I like the ceiling potential.
Can Semien handle the Hot corner? I guess he wouldn’t have much experience with Matt Chapman in the fold but I would love to see the Jays pick this guy up, even if it’s just a 1 year Ozuna-type deal. I bet he would hit a lot of dingers at Rogers centre.
I think Semian has experience at 3rd and 2nd dating ti his earlier years in Oakland. cant comment on the glove but i know he has played them to a tangible degree.
Semien played mostly third base when he was on the White Sox too.
marcus semien never takes a play off. always working, and working hard. no harder worker than semien in that group
I’ll go with Jose Iglesias. I assume the Orioles will pick up his option but I’d rather have him then any of the other choices. He was a steal last off-season
And next yr he won’t be anything close to what he was this yr, an extreme outlier
clearly, but he’s got the ability to hit .300 with strong defense, which you could get for a bargain in a saturated SS market.
“Simmons, who turned 31 next month…”
Does he also drive a DeLorean?
All three have questions, but all three can help a team if they can be picked up on shorter-term deals. I wouldn’t go past two year deals, but they’ll want and probably get more.
Semien may offer the most upside, but does he really? I think he’s a 95 OPS+ hitter. Slightly below average. His 2019 has to be viewed as an outlier, likely fueled by the rocket ball used that season. No team should pay for that because it’s unlikely they’ll get it. His timing really sucks. He got a nice $13M salary in 2020, but then lost 63% of that due to the shortened season. Now he’s a free agent heading into the financially depressed COVID offseason coming off a down season. He could bet on himself like Didi did and take a one-year deal, but then he’d be re-entering the free agent market against the super class of shortstops, including Lindor, Seager, Story, Baez, etc. Those guys, or most, may never hit the open market, so maybe he’ll be one of the better available options…or not! Then there’s the looming work stoppage for 2022 after another potentially shortened pandemic season in 2021. I don’t think that the work stoppage will happen, but it really is not an optimal time for non-elite free agents.
Simmons has the best glove that may carry him for several years, but that glove may no longer be elite due to his ankle issues. He doesn’t have enough bat to compensate if he becomes simply a good defender.
Didi is probably the safest bet. He won’t hit 25+ HRs away from Yankee Stadium of Philly, but his park-adjusted OPS+ indicates he’s still a 110-120 hitter at this stage. Even if he regresses, you’ll get an above-average hitter who could likely slip over to 3B eventually.
That said, I still don’t give any of the three more than a two year deal. I’d look to Kim for a cost-value deal.
For every SS that makes it to FA, there will also be one more team looking for a replacement. The more demand the higher the bidding.
that’s not exactly true. Philly and LA have potential replacements (though rearranging their infield) in Kingery and Rengifo respectively, and Kim is a new player all together to the MLB.
Angels have to decide whether Fletcher is their SS or 2B. Either way, it would be quite a leap of faith to install Rengifo as an everyday player. I personally like him and he’ll turn just 24 in February. But through 512 MLB plate appearances, he has an OPS+ of 72 with a slash of .221/.310/.331. Can he make the jump? That’s a risk at this point.
The Angels also traded for Franklin Barreto this season. I’d rather see him play every day at SS than Rengifo. Barreto has considerable upside and has never really gotten a chance to play every day.
If the bottom falls out of the market for Semien (which I highly doubt), then I would love for Atlanta to try to but him on the cheap. I imagine that he could fill in more than adequately at 2nd, SS, and third in the event of injuries and such. He’d be a huge asset in that role, but I seriously doubt that he wouldn’t be paid by another team as a starter.
Puts the Reds in a tricky spot. They need a better SS for next but the good SS aren’t available until the following year.
Indeed, and there’s no guarantee they’ll reel in one of the big ones. I realize Reds fans want one of those bigger names, but it might be better to nab one of this year’s top three and use the savings to shore up in other areas such as starting pitching. Keep SP a strength while also being really good up the middle. People need to remember that the expanded playoffs might be here to stay. In theory, this gives teams with strong SP a chance to crack the field and be a pain to deal with in October. In my opinion, Bauer’s likely departure means adding a quality arm is as important as finding a SS. Any of the current three will be an upgrade on Galvis. Excellent defense makes good pitchers shine even more.
With Cashman’s reaffirmation that Gleyber is the SS of the future for the Yankees are they going to pick any one of these guys up this year or next? Didi commented that NY doesn’t want him back because they have Gleyber so will be fine next year.
I would like them to pick one of them up, especially given their impending free agency issues, their perennial injury challenges, and the fact that they were defensively anemic.
If there’s any truth to the rumor that the Yankees are looking to dip below the tax line this year, be prepared to be disappointed in NY. Say goodbye to DJL, expect a few non-tenders and only one FA pitcher to be signed (most likely Tanaka again on a team friendly contract). Lots of Yankees fans seem to believe that the Yankees will have loads of money to spend this year and that is not the case, especially if they really do try to reset their CBT. Rays will repeat in 2021.
You may be right about the Rays winning the division next season. The Yankees will end up in 2nd followed very closely by Toronto. The Blue Jays have that young core of players and they should be Improved. Baltimore and Boston will battle for 4th.
Sign Garry Templeton… he hits the triples and has two “r”’s in his first name…. none of this “Gary” nonsense