3:34pm: The Braves have formally announced the extension.
Acuna will earn $1MM in both 2019 and 2020, $5MM in 2021, $15MM in 2022 and $17MM annually from 2023-26, Heyman tweets. There’s a $10MM buyout on his first $17MM option for the 2027 season.
11:27am: In an exclamation point on a spring full of extensions, the Braves are finalizing a $100MM deal with elite youngster Ronald Acuna, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter links). The eight-year contract comes with two option years, priced at $17MM apiece with a $10MM buyout, per the report. Acuna is represented by Alex Salazar of Gatemore Sports & Entertainment.
The agreement will begin with the present season, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It’ll therefore run through at least the 2026 season, with options for the 2027 and 2028 campaigns. Acuna, who entered the current campaign at 21 years of age and with 159 days of MLB service, was on track to qualify for arbitration in 2021 (as a Super Two) and reach free agency after the 2024 campaign. Accordingly, the new deal guarantees two would-be free-agent campaigns and gives the Atlanta organization control over two more.
Acuna won the National League’s Rookie of the Year Award last season at twenty years of age. The multi-dimensional young star launched 26 home runs and slashed .293/.366/.552 in 487 plate appearances. He also swiped 16 bags and is considered a quality outfield defender, making him one of the highest-upside players in all of baseball.
Taking this sort of financial security is understandable for a player who didn’t secure a large bonus and still was several years removed from arbitration. But it took a massive bite out of his potential earning power as a professional ballplayer. Acuna will now be under team control through his age-30 season, with the deal maxing out at $124MM if both options are exercised.
There’s obviously very real risk in any deal of this magnitude, but the contract is laden with upside for the Atlanta organization. Excellent young players always deliver huge surplus value during the earlier portion of their careers, when they’re earning relative peanuts; that’s the nature of the system. But locking up Acuna now also delivers the potential for the gravy train to continue into the future.
Acuna might reasonably have anticipated something in the range of $50MM in arbitration earnings, with potential for more if he enjoys good health. If he keeps anything like his current pace, he’d have been in line for a monstrous free-agent contract in advance of his age-27 season. Instead, the Braves now have control over four more of Acuna’s mid-prime seasons — campaigns that could otherwise have been sold to the highest bidder at prices we can’t really even foresee at this point in time.
Unsurprisingly, given his excellence, Acuna has commanded a larger guarantee than the few other players who’ve done deals this early in their careers. Eloy Jimenez just received a $43MM promise from the White Sox, more than any sub-1.000 service player, before making his debut. The Acuna deal blows that guarantee out of the water. That was inevitable: Acuna has much greater upside as an all-around performer, has already established himself in the majors, and is still younger than Jimenez.
But it’s fair to ask whether Acuna’s contract structure is really preferable to that of Jimenez. If both of their contracts are maxed out through options, the former will have earned $124MM over ten years and sacrificed four free-agent seasons, while the latter will have received $75MM for eight years but will in effect have given up only one open-market campaign (as we explained in the post on his signing). What the Braves were willing to do obviously isn’t known, but Acuna might have been better served to have sought a lesser guarantee (with Jimenez as a presumptive floor) that secured his financial future while leaving more future free-agent seasons available to work with in the long run.
There was never really any doubt that Acuna was a central part of the Braves’ long-term plans, but that’s now all the more clear. The club will hope that Acuna functions as an affordable superstar for the decade to come, keeping open a lengthy contention window.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
This is a fantastic move however you look at it.
Honestly it’s one of the times the phrase “a win for both sides” seems to be warranted.
I disagree, it’s certainly not bad for Acuna, but he could have guaranteed himself a pay day and given up less team control by taking a smaller guarantee. No way the Braves simply demanded he give up 4 FA years to get a contract done.
Lol, there’s a reason your name isaverage Joe, you don’t know a thing about business in sports. Keep pipe dreaming
It’s not he new new & it really is win/win. Pay them when they are good not on the downside! Tigers have a slew of young guys coming up in a few years. Hope they do the same!!
It’s beyond terrible for Acuna, he’s making $17M in 2027 instead of $50M like he easily could.
Go cry yourself to sleep, 124 million is nothing be sad about for half of his playing career.
Ya, that poor schmuck taking the guaranteed millions now….
You are making quite a few gigantic assumptions there.
Go ask Grady Sizemore how he would’ve felt about having this deal.
There’s no guarantees about what the future holds.
Holy crap, good comp. I forgot about Grady. He was incredible.
It can’t be too long until the player’s union starts complaining about these type of extensions. Their aim is to maximize the amount of money veteran players make, usually using the younger players as a bargaining chip. If extending players at an early stage begins to become the norm the union may have become fractured.
Extension fever… catch it!!!
Those extensions…so hot right now.
Wonderful!!!
Dang that seems cheap compared to all the other money being thrown around. Buying out arbitration years i guess, not sure how all that works? Eight more years of Acuna woo hoo!!!…
Great! Now go get pitching help, mainly in the bullpen!
lol, this was the secret signing AA was referring to
Holy crap this is a very good move by the Braves. The amount of surplus value that they have the potential to get from this is huge.
This post has a lot of surplus value.
Praise Jesus, the Braves FO and AA are finally getting to work!! Nicely done and much respect Acuna. Ozzie will be next and then dansby’s going to have to step up and earn it..
Let’s goooooo!
Does the 2 club years mean this is for 10 total years? Seems good, but details needed…
You’ve got 8 years at $90m.
Year 9 is a minimum of $10m if you decline the option, $17m if you pick it up. ($100m/107m).
Year 10, second option, is $17m bringing total contract to the $124m.
8 years 100 mill and 2 options
I’m guessing 6+2 options.
8+2
Wow 8 years 100 million. Doesn’t that sound pretty cheap, good deal for the Braves and good security for Acuna
I’m torn between being glad we have Acuna signed long term, and being not so glad he’s gonna be underpaid towards the end of the deal
There is nothing stopping you from mailing him a check each year you feel he is underpaid.
Honestly, I would do that if that means it’s less money the Atlanta Braves give Shane Carle.
Lol
12.5 a year?!?! Great job Braves
I’m sure the 2 options are included on the 8 years
Nope they are not
I’ve never been happier to be wrong.
Amazing deal for both sides! Acuna gets a life changing, generational amount to protect against injury and the Braves save hundreds of millions if his trajectory continues. This should ease some fan frustration. I see an Albies deal in the very near future.
If the Braves arent going to add significant $$$ this year they should be smart and front load the contract or give Ronald a $20 million signing bonus this year. Imagine Acuña only counting $10 million a year in the budget for the next 8 years.
That messes up compensation for all other clubs.
why should the braves care?
For the same reason they’ll care if someone does it to them. That’s a pretty shortsighted thought process you’re exhibiting right there.
What are you talking about? The signing bonus or year one salary would still count against future years luxury tax calculations as those are based on total years divided by total salary (so 12.5 Million per year).
Teams front load/back load contracts all the time.
thanks, shortsighted is my middle name
They don’t on rookie deals. Look it up and show me one rookie deal front loaded.
Eloy Jimenez just got a 5MM signing bonus like 2 weeks ago.
google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/sports/bas…
Scott Kingery got a 1.5 million signing bonus on. 24 million deal. That’s 16% of the total contract value. If Ronald got the same % it would be a 16 million signing bonus.
google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/scott-kinger…
Ok my math was wrong, but still doesn’t change the fact that it happens and there’s nothing wrong with it.
Sevvy’s new deal is front-loaded. It’s a ridiculous assertion that teams don’t front-load contracts for pre-arb and arb eligible players.
Team’s will do what is in the best interest of their balance sheet.
No. 16% = 1/6th. 1/6th of $24M = $4M.
Maybe you noticed this is a competitive sport? Teams do these sorts of deals all the time.
It doesnt change anything at all lol.
Not sure the other teams care that much how or when you pay players. Nats were going to pay Harper for 45 years & are paying Scherzer and Strasberg 80 mil combined this year. Everybody has a different method, so MLB just goes by AAV for luxury tax.
Schezer is a Ufa 2022, however the team will still owe him 15 million a year thru 2028.
With him signing for a smaller amount and the pre arb years left I kinda always felt he would sign an extension
What a steal.
It sure looks that way for the Braves as strange as that sounds
Dang he’ll still be young when that is up.
I’d say now do the same with Albies and Freeman. 8/75 for Albies and 6/160 for Freeman. Then we trade inciarte next year with a couple of prospects for an Ace or RF. Then we only have the hole at which ever we dont get in Inciarte deal with Riley sliding into 3rd. If we have Acuna and Pache in the OF do we think Riley can cover LF? If so maybe extending Donaldson 3/75, providing he earns the extension. Again, I think this method leads us to only 1 large FA hole and maybe none if the young starting pitchers come through. I’m sorry I’m all over the place..
2020:
Pache
Donaldson (or Riley, but Riley would hit 5th)
Freeman
Acuna
Riley (or FA)
Albies
Flowers/Contreras
Swanson
Folty
Soroka
Wright
Anderson
(FA, Wilson, Mueller, Gohara, other)
Camargo/Culberson
Minter, Touki, Fried.
This team truly has but 1 hole. Either Ace/OF. May not need an ACE and OF filled with trade of Ender/2 prospects…maybe Haniger?
If we can get all these extensions done, I’m actually pleased with how AA is spending the money and we are setup to exceed the talent of the rest of the East…thoughts? Again sorry for being scatterbrained. Go Braves
Mark it! Fried is your best pitcher out of the bunch
#1 TOR is a burden for Atlanta, bullpen is the problem. OF isn’t a problem for Atlanta.
Can’t see paying Donaldson 25 mil for age 34-37 seasons even if he has a bounce back year
Freeman is already signed through 2021.
Also $20 million will go off the books with Darren O’Day and Teheran becoming free agents. Making a trade as you say with Inciarte and a couple of prospects, plus this $20 million means they can afford just about anyone.
Hopefully teams begin to realize that you can get team friendly extensions done with your top prospects and stop manipulating service time
Have you seen TOR’s lineup? Even if he weren’t injured I’d leave him down. One more year down the road will be a lot better than right now knowing how bad they look on paper.
EXTREMELY nice deal for Atlanta. Now get Ozzie an extension and tack on a few extra seasons for Freeman!
Sooooo this was the surprise AA was hinting at a week or 2 ago? Im almost positive he was referring to big news coming for the pitching staff..
That’s the leverage teams have. This guy signed for essentially nothing out of the DR and hadn’t made any money until his rookie contract last year which paid him 500K. Now you’re offering a guy who has only made ~500K 100+ million dollars. Not hard to see why Acuna would say yes with a smile on his face. He probably gave away 10’s of millions of dollars here but I can’t say I blame him. 100MM is enough to make you filthy rich especially when you come from nothing,.
Bummer…now the Yankees can’t get him! Guess they’ll just have to trade for Trout or Harper.
Too much money in baseball nowadays. Yankee money isn’t so much greater than other teams especially if you’re just looking at 3-5 high priced players and small deals for everyone else.
The Yankees money is still enormous compared to most other teams. The only reason you don’t see that in payroll is because the luxury tax is being treated like a cap.
So the luxury tax is serving its intended purpose.
Or? Why not “and”?
regardless of the contract climate, giving up the chance to hit FA at 26/27 in favor of two years is a significant gamble. Evem with Harper and Machado not getting ad much as they could have, those extra few years of youth were surely invaluable to getting the money they did.
But now acuna is guaranteed 100 million dollars in bis lifetime. Regardless of performance or if he has a season ending injury .
That’s life changing money
Well said. Not sure why people overlook that.
Because he certainly could have taken less, but still life changing money in return for less team control and a larger potential payday in 6 years.
I get what you’re saying. this kid has almost unlimited earning potential. but he could also could have run into a career ending injury that prevented him from earning anymore money. I mean think about it… This kid signed for $100,000. his career earnings have been just north of one million dollars. this is guaranteeing no matter how bad he plays or how significant of an injury he has at minimum 100 million dollars. you have to factor in the business side of things. if the deal isn’t long enough to be mutually beneficial there’s no point in extending
From the business side of things plenty of teams have been happy to give out contracts that only net them 1 or 2 extra years of team control. I just can’t fathom why those final two option years were necessary or at least at a much larger price point.
He gave up more than 2 years. The chance of ATL declining those options is extremely low. He signed on to be a Brave for the next decade for 124MM. Life changing money, sure. But he signed away any chance at Machado or Harper money with this. And for anybody arguing about how guys service time shouldn’t be manipulated because they can sign an extension, they should look no further than this robbery the Braves just pulled off. They manipulated the guys service time and got him under control for a decade for under 125MM. AA worked some serious magic here.
I can’t wait for the Braves to use this as an excuse not to improve their team anymore. There is no reason with a deal like this the Braves can’t also afford Kimbrel and their bullpen needs him to remain relevant in the East of the NL as a whole.
Will you just STOP with the Kimbrel to Atlanta nonsense. There’s a reason all 30 teams in MLB haven’t signed him. He’s asking for more than he’s worth, in terms of value and years.
Just stop. A closer isn’t the problem in Atlanta. It’s the 6th-7th-8th guys that need improving.
I’m glad to see teams doing this. Locking up their younger players through their prime. It makes so much money sense. The writers keep saying that the teams don’t know what they are going to get (possible injury, bad performance, etc…) but that is the same as if a team has signed a high profile free agent to a long term deal. Same issues arise either way.
This should started bringing these ridiculous free agent prices down. Put Scott Boras out of business, lol.
What ridiculous free agent prices? The ones the players earned? The ones that need to continue to increase so players share of revenue stays at or above 50%?
Are you really siding with billionaire owners, the pseudo salary cap, and artificially reduced wages?
This shows that GMs, agents and players are getting smarter. Teams now are trying to sign their young stars first, trade for players second , and sign free agents third. The young player and agents are also looking to sign long term at a good price for the teams. This is good for baseball, pay the players who perform well and bring people to watch them.
It’s advantage Braves, no doubt. But such deals SHOULD be advantageous. They’re taking all the risks. Acuna certainly LOOKS good, but lots of young players have LOOKED good.
Will the performance trajectory continue? Will Acuna treat his “job” differently with the money already in the bank? (It’s not that others haven’t). It’s hard to determine these things, factoring in both regular metrics (the performance stats) and “liquid” metrics (what kind of guy Acuna is).
Are financial the rewards the ONLY motivator? Of course not; not for you, not for me, not for Ronald Acuna. But they factor in. And you have the danger of what one might call the (Chris) Archer conundrum; does Acuna at some point become resentful that he’s being underpaid for the job he’s doing (should he continue his trajectory).
Lots and lots of risks. There are fewer “downers” than standing out in the hot sun in August when your team is out of the race, and trying to motivate yourself to perform well, when it doesn’t make any difference for you or your team. That’s when the hangnails become delibitating injuries.
There is no doubt that this deal advantage Braves, and no matter what the writers want to say this deal benefits no one more than Robert Acuna and his family. He gets life changing for not only himself but also his family and potentially generations to come.
I also don’t believe that these deals affect the free agent market whatsoever. Because consider the average career length for MLB is less than 6 years (amazinavenue.com/2019/2/22/18234325/mlb-free-agent…), its an older study but I would agrue that is probably the same or less now.
Thus even if Acuna made it through arbitration (which wasn’t gonna happen until at least he gave the braves 7 years of service due to time manipulation), and thus had a longer than average career, there is no guarantee he gets cash like this.
Is the system broken? Yeah probably. But this could also just be a method that is gonna help to correct the market as it is currently. It is much too early to determine who wins this deal. The players are still getting somewhere around 50% of the revenue cut, and whatever they aren’t getting isn’t due to greedy owners or analytics. A lot of it can be traced back to poor negotiation by the union in the previous round of CBA negotiations.
But remember, it is the Braves taking all of the risk in this deal. If he gets hurt, flames out, or anything similar everyone will turn out and claim he is an albatross and the Braves made a bad deal.
I am not trying to take sides of the owners or the players because lets face it, they probably make much, much more than a majority of us reading and/or writing on this site.
I think perhaps the way to fix the service time manipulation is to reduce the number of days necessary to achieve a year of service. Instead of 172 (or 170 whatever it is now), make it 130-140. In the same way that teams now have to decide to buy or sell prior to the only trade deadline, now they have to decide if an extra year of service is better than potentially missing out on the playoffs because 10 games makes less of difference on the final standings than perhaps 30-40. Would the Cubs have held Kris Bryant down for an extra year if that meant holding him until late May/early June? Same with Acuna last year or any number of recent service time questions. I doubt any of those teams would hold them down. Make players eligible for Arbitration at 2.0 or 2.5 years and free agency after 5.0 years. Gets more players in their prime during free agency, encourages teams to not perform service time manipulation, and can allow free agents to cash in on some prime years at a high value and then potentially have a lower value on their less valuable years (Eric Hosmer’s deal should be the new norm and not a Machado or Harper deal, pay for what you get mentally as players age).
so 2019 is becoming the extension year. lock up your players or else..
I have never seen this b4
crazy the amount of extensions so far.
$100 million in the hand is worth more than the Boras daydream in the bush.
Acuna was a future 200+MM talent. Injuries happen but this guy is special
A- Secure $100 million, including the ability to borrow against it as future earnings and invest it now…even if you get hurt tomorrow.
B- Risk injury for a chance at a bigger payday and potentially end your career without even making a million….in the hopes of more.
More power to anyone who wants to choose B, but…the smart move is A.
You have to live a very gluttonous or decadent lifestyle to notice the difference between having $100 million or $200 million. It’s negligible, really.
The difference between having $100 million vs. a few hundred thousand is substantial.
Smart kid.
I understand the leverage the teams have. That’s part of the problem of controlling a guy’s rights for 6-7 of his best years without guaranteeing any money for any of those years. I’m not saying it’s a move I don’t understand it’s just way less than he would’ve gotten. Your part B is a real extreme. He’s not a pitcher either so I’d be less inclined to worry about the career altering injury either. Like I said, I get it though.
MLBPA has spent years worrying only about the interests of the top players while assuming everyone else would benefit. Trickle down economics never work.
In the NHL, teams also control a players rights for 7 years BUT players get RFA status after 3 years. The two highest paid players in the NHL are 22 and 21, respectively.
Oh, and the minimum salary is $650,000, higher than baseball’s…in a sport with half the revenue because the NHLPA didn’t prioritize the elite over the rest of their members.
If the MLBPA wants to change the status quo, they need to push for restricted free agency (teams can match offers).
If Acuna only had to wait two more years, what might he have done then?
That one change would completely reorder the pay scale in baseball.
No one said it was $100M or bet on himself. He could have agreed to have his arb years bought out and only given up a year or two of FA and still received a life changing guarantee without as severely handicapping his earnings potential.
Yeah, he signed away 10 years if he’s as productive as planned. That’s not a typical extension. It was a move that has an extremely high probability of costing him a lot of money in the future. I understand why he wants a guarantee but this deal is really in the Braves favor by a large margin. His ARB salaries could’ve easily made him over 60MM alone. It’s life changing money, sure but it’s a massive win for Atlanta who just bought out his entire prime for what likely amounts to pennies on the dollar. I’m willing to bet they would’ve been amenable to buying out 1 additional year of FA while still guaranteeing Acuna a life changing sum of cash.
And if you’re going to go with argument of 200MM isn’t that much different than 100. Well then 100 certainly isn’t that much different than 65-70 MM with an earlier parlay into FA. (The Braves didn’t have to agree to a deal that only brought another season or possibly 2 of control for Acuna but I find it hard to believe they wouldn’t have.) He took the risk hating contract here. Which is a fine move if you’re really risk averse but the Braves get a much larger piece of the upside here. Great for Braves fans, that’s for sure.
He’s making $17M in 2027 when he could have been making $50+. Quit being smarmy Braves fans and admit your team cheaped out and did your greatest asset dirty with this deal. Why did they come to the table at $100M and not $200M, like he deserves? Cheapness. Plain & simple. This deal makes me sick for him. As a Braves fan, you’re stoked, but $17M in 2027 might be closer to min wage than anything, why did they exploit his background so hard like this? In 2019?
Yeah they twisted his arm to sign the extension didn’t they? Despite your sense of superiority over others not everyone will make the same decisions that you would. While I will admit that Acuna probably left maybe as much as an extra $100 million on the table it was his final decision to do so, not yours.
Are these team options or player options? Seems to be the former but that’s probably something worth specifying.
Great deal for the future MVP and perennial all star.
Looks like a steal, especially if he continues to play the same lvl of baseball. But this can quickly be a bad deal if he doesn’t continue to play at a high lvl. Part of me wishes they would lock up a few other players to cheaper extensions.
Wow. Cant imagine what free agency will look like in 10 years. Might only be a crop of middling 1-2 WAR a season over 30 veterans
You’ll still have guys who bet on themselves. If teams have all these friendly extensions the big players (Yankees,Dodgers,Giants) will have the dollars to go huge on the FA’s that remain.
Tatis is next.
I’ve posted a lot of AA hate this offseason so it’s only fair to give him credit when he does something well for once. Very good job on this one. Even if it ends up bad, I think the decision in this moment was a good one.
It’s sickening for Acuna’s family. Straight up robbery. $17M in 2027 is insanity. Acuna should be making $50M in 2027.
Scott Boras is that you?
Yep. We always say that..when its not OUR team getting the team friendly deal.
But since we’re at it, you realize secured money is never as big as potential money right?
It’s “sickening” for Acuna’s family who is now set for life for multiple generations?
Go talk to Oscar Tavares’ family.
You’ll have to excuse Strike Four, he’s just a bitter old dude that likes to take the piss out of everything Atlanta does.
The articles on here have to do a better job of acknowledging where arbitration salaries have gone:
“Acuna might reasonably have anticipated something in the range of $50MM in arbitration earnings, with potential for more if he enjoys good health.”
Betts has just pulled in $10m and $20m in his first two arbitration seasons. If Acuna established himself as one of the top two or three players in the league a couple of years from now, he could have seen arbitration salaries of around $10m, $20m, $30m, and $40m. I know the writer left some leeway for the total to rise above the “range” figure of $50m, but it could have realistically doubled it.
It’s possible Acuna could have set all the records in baseball for arbitration by taking the Braves through the arbitration process every single year, but $50M, even for a super 2, is a very high value for arbitration year earnings.
That said Betts was far, far superior to Acuna in value as of right now.
I remember when Pujols got his early deal from the Cardinals. About 5 years into it was when the media and some fans started griping that they weren’t paying enough to him. Then a few years later, the grumbling began about not taking a discount on his next contract.
I can see this same scenario playing out, in the future, with Acuna.
Only we are now in the age when a player over 30 will never receive a massive contract like that again. He gave away the massive deal when he signed on the dotted line of what amounts to a 10 year deal with Atlanta. He made himself filthy rich with the move but he’ll never be among the games top earners now.
Fortunately for StL. Bautista also complained that he wasn’t giving TO a home team discount, fortunately for TO.
Now trade for starting pitching!
Yep its now time to put the rebuild behind us and creating a WS contender/champ for the next decade.
This is becoming a frenzy.
Teams have always been interested in buying out free agency years, but players have never been particularly keen on making the sacrifices so teams usually settled for buying out arbitration and perhaps 1 additional year of free agency.
With the free agency market losing a lot of its luster, younger players no longer have the guaranteed big payday to look forward to so all they have left to consider is the risk of not taking what they can get while they can get it.
In this contract’s case, it sounds like it works out to anywhere from 8yr $80M to a 10yr $124M deal. At most, Acuna is probably sacrificing $50-75M of total career compensation for the guarantee he’ll make $80M. Probably a pretty fair compromise.
The agents know what they’re doing. If a player wants to take the security of $124M, they will advise their client of what the long term cost of that security is. Just for fun, the ROYs in the past 10 years include:
Coughlin
Bailey
Feliz
Hellickson
Jose Fernandez
Wil Myers
Fulmer
Acuna looks really good, but there are no guarantees.
TBF, Coghlan (which is who I assume you were trying to write) is one of the very worst ROY winners of all time. He was a singles-hitting leftfielder with a completely unsustainable BABIP that year. Acuna has much more broad range of skills.
Wil Myers isn’t a bad player, he just gets hurt and the Padres don’t know what to do with him. Putting Fernandez on this list is just tasteless.
I think you’re capping Acuna on how much he potentially could’ve cost himself way too low. He realistically could’ve cost himself over 100 million dollars with this extension. He could’ve brought in 60-70MM in arb seasons alone. Then entered the FA market at 27 instead of 31. That’s a huge difference. Obviously there is a long time between now and then and some uncertainties involved but at 27 you’re looking at a guy who potentially could’ve been a 300+MM player to now being a 31 year old FA who certainly wont be looking at a contract more than a third of that size. He’s secure but I probably would’ve went for security with less years given up. He gave up a ton of upside.
Now that is all potential upside, he could fizzle out and he still guaranteed himself a ton of cash. I find that unlikely but if that’s the case he’s still filthy rich. But he gave up a ton of potential dollars for that guarantee.
I don’t think I am. Why do you think he’s entering free agency at 32? This is a 10 year (including the 2 options) deal from my understanding. He’s 21 now meaning he’d enter free agency at age 30 (2028) by my math.
Assuming the makes $60M through his arbitration years and he hits free agency at age 27. At age 27, what kind of contract does he get? 10yrs $350M? That’s a pretty massive contract. Maybe he could make more, but that’s a pretty bold prediction. That would get him another 2 year contract to end his career at age 38, say $12M per year in today’s dollars.
Total career earnings = $434M.
vs.
$124M and free agency at age 30. 8 year contract at $280M and thats…. $384M or $50M in total difference over his career.
oh look another person saying “total career earnings” without showing the taxes, agent fees, other payments etc.
the braves owners should be ashamed of themselves for doing their biggest star so dirty like this, and they knew he’d take it too, because he doesn’t come from a rich family. its a terrible day for the game.
10 years from today he’d be 31 years old. He has a ten year contract now with the Braves. He’ll have just turned 31 during his FA offseason. And that’s mighty bold to assume a team would hand out an 8 year deal at nearly 300MM dollars for a 31 year old outfielder. That’d top Arenado’s deal at 27 years of age. You’re essentially treating all those years of Acuna as being equal. Those four seasons of FA they just bought out are prime years. Aka the years the teams pay top dollar for. You know I highly doubt the padres really expect machado to be worth 30MM in years 8,9 and 10. But he ought to be worth a lot more than that in the beginning. Acuna just sold out the beginning. I think you’re vastly underestimating what he just gave up.
Take for example Andrew mccutchen a once great outfielder who just entered FA at 32. That’s only a year older than Acuna will be. He just received 50MM over 3 years. Why? Because as he got older he wasn’t quite the player he used to be. How much money would 28 year old Andrew Mccutchen have received? Certainly over 150MM. Those years are huge and he gave them up for pennies. Even if he doesn’t have the dip in production like mccutchen ML teams have smartened up and won’t pay players for their past performance. The age curve is a very real thing.
It’s a 4 year extension off his current deal. Not 2, 4. 4 seasons of your prime. That is a gigantic giveaway and your estimation is extremely optimistic giving him 280MM at 31 years of age. I don’t think that is realistic at all. I think we’ve seen the last of those type of deals. Teams will pay up but you need more seasons in a players prime to go to that level.
So your argument is Acuna is going to suck in the future so he needs to lock in a big contract now? Terrible contracts that cripple teams are where the current free agent debacle starts. I don’t feel any pain for Acuna in that situation at all. If you’re advocating for teams to suck due to bloated contracts paid to half-performing free agents, I’m not with you on that.
In any case, with the finalized contract details out, it’s pretty clear Acuna took it in the chin as the Braves have back-loaded the contract heavily. The result is Acuna is likely giving money up every single year vs. what his arbitration and free agency value would probably project to be.
I don’t believe age impacts AAV nearly as much as it impacts contract length. Again, Acuna’s maximum potential earnings is still within $50-75M in both total dollars and net present value.
How the hell is that my argument? I said he’ll make a hell of a lot more on the open market at 27 then 31. That’s the truth whether he has started to decline or not. The gap just widens significantly more if he has. How you think I said that he needs to sign now before he sucks is beyond me. He gave away 4 prime years for pennies which CRUSHES his future earnings. A hell of a lot more than 50MM if this guy is as good as we think he is.
Age absolutely effects length and AAV. He gave up 4 prime years. You aren’t paying a 31 year old the same AAV or length like a 27 year old. You have him pegged at an 8 year 280 MM deal at age 31. That’s not realistic in the slightest. He’s threw away the chance of getting a 200 million dollar contract. It’s not happening.
So it’s actually 8 years/$90, with either a $10M buyout on the first option or the two options at $17M per, right?
Yipppeeeeeee
Smart. Guaranteed riches, plus contract ends while he’s still young enough to get another one.
Smart move.
No better way to lower extension costs than to suppress free agent salaries. Pervasive bad-faith service time manipulation helps too. Next, it’ll help them lower arb costs because there will be fewer high-end comps. And, when the union focuses on service time in the next negotiation, they’ll be fighting last year’s battle and risk getting snookered again.
What they should fight for is a structure and incentives that push the floor up, including for the lowest paid players because the more they cost, the less incentive teams have to non-tender mid-level guys. The three things I’d do are:
1) start free agency at 5 years with an enforceable mechanism to deal with manipulation, since teams have acted in bad faith and turned the agreed on 6 into 7.
2) Make all revenue sharing into matching funds only payable to teams as a percentage of free agent and extension contracts. That ensures that teams unwilling to spend don’t just take money out of the system and pocket the profits while the tax is nothing but a drag on salaries for teams willing to spend.
3) raise pre-arb salaries significantly, maybe $1M, 1.5M, 2M, and use a starting date of first call up regardless of whether you hit a year mark in the middle of the season.
You can do the arb clock the same way and hold the hearing before the season and kicking in the arb salary whenever the player hits the service time mark midseason. That way every day a team holds a guy down buys them nothing in terms of cheaper major league salary.
I agree with your points at a high level, however the issue is the owners are giving up a lot of value in these solutions. The owners are in such an advantageous position that any of these changes require significant concessions and potentially a strike from the players. I.e. Giving up 2 years of team control would require a level of charity I don’t believe MLB ownership is capable of or alternatively serious concessions in other areas from the players.
More realistically the players could give up their 7th year of control in exchange for reaching arb a year earlier as well as a minimum salary tied to a small percentage of revenue so instead of stagnating it follows revenue.
Arb could be restructured to value players more appropriately based on advanced metrics and the arb value calendar could be updated so players end up paid their approximate value in the last year of arb.
Year 1 Min
Year 2 Min
Year 3 30%
Year 4 50%
Year 5 70%
Year 6 90%
Year 7 100%
()this is a rough example of a potential payout structure, haven’t run any actual math on the trade offs for it)
Great post, Bert17. Agreed with everything.
I can’t wait to see what the met CBA does as far as free agency and arbitration go as both are going to have big changes at this rate. GM’s have found a way around these things. To think this started with nola’s Extension and at that time it didn’t seem like something that would open the floodgates lol
Acuna, Atlanta, and their fans all win with this deal. Kudos
Atlanta paying an MVP what should be minimum wage in 2027, sure. They won. Fans win too. Acuna? Not a chance, he got worked on this deal. That money is going to be so little in 2027. He’s talented enough to go year to year.
You should have called him and told him it was a bad deal.
So happy we locked up this kid. Even if he hits a plateau he will be a force in the league for a long time. Eric Hinske’s homer in the 2010 NLDS and Acuña’s grand-slam are definitely two of the biggest Braves moments I’ve witnessed live.
The teams know something the players don’t. I think they’ve realized they will need to give up major concessions to labor in the next CBA. So they are all scrambling to get their guys locked in now.
Hey Mike Rizzo. Rendon, Turner, Soto. Get. it. done.
There’s another elite young player to sign an extension despite having his service time manipulated. Preller biffed it by not doing the same with Tatis.
He’s got almost six full years to do it.
He would have had almost seven full years to do it if he held him down for 15 days
Still going on about that? Yeesh, let it go. Pads fans are so used to disappointment, they are actively seeking it out now.
Who cares, Padres are a Kimbrel and Keuchel away from contending.
@Cam Unbelievable that anyone was defending that ridiculous decision.
@Strike Four lol
This is great for both sides. Atlanta likely saves money (and locks in a probable star player). Acuna gets a nice chunk of guaranteed money and won’t be old when the contract is up.
For those thinking Acuna should’ve held out, remember Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur both had extension opportunities when they were young. Mac jumped on his and Frenchy did not. Including their draft signing bonuses, McCann stands to earn close to $130M while Francoeur made about $30M. Take the guaranteed money.
Very team friendly. Never hits $20M per year in the deal, and gave up free agent years. Even though he’s far away, that’s still a bargain due to his age when he would be a free agent
You have to understand though. Acuna is from Venezuela. This is more money than he could have ever dreamed of having. Now he can set up his family and friends for the rest of their lives. He will more than likely secure another lucrative deal when this one is up, and all of this doesn’t take into account any money he will make from endorsements and things like that.
Ask yourself what you would do in his situation. He could (god forbid) suffer a career ending injury tomorrow. But now he is set for life no matter what. I think I would choose to have that security. That being said, the Braves got a steal. Acuna is an absolute beast.
Sure, I get that and these deals are always relative. But no doubt he could have made a lot more. Everyday he got closer to free agency without a major injury or massive regression has a premium dollar attached to it.
I’ll never knock a guy for taking lifetime money.
Though*
That qualm is not a knock on Acuna personally, more his agent and team. The team should have started at $200M, because they can and will easily afford it. Acuna is a god. These are 2010 salaries. He’s making 2010 pre-arb superstar money in 2027.
I think it is unreasonable to expect the Braves to pay more than they had to. Its still a business and while Acuna clearly has the makings of a superstar he has only played one year in the majors.
If there is somebody to be disappointed in here it would be Acuna’s agent. Because I agree with you; he should have been able to squeeze a few more million out of this deal. But maybe once he heard their offer Acuna just told him to get the deal done. We will probably never know.
I hope he doesn’t go back to Venezuela, and moves his family to the U.S. Otherwise, they are candidates for kidnapping.
This deal makes a lot more sense than the one the White Sox signed Jimenez to. The Braves have almost a full season in the majors of exceptional play to base the extension on. This deal has 2 seasons of $1 million salaries and then just $5 million in 2021 so Acuna does not make big money until he would be a 2nd-year arbitration eligible player.
Team beats player once again. Should have been $200M, easily.
As a Phillies fan I hate this move, but it is undoubtedly a good one for the Braves – locking him up.
For those who lament Acuna giving up so much future earnings – that is purely speculative. He now has financial security for the rest of his life if he handles the money properly. Need I really list all of the players who’s careers were either cut short or reduced by injuries that never saw the dollars they thought they would? MLB history is littered with them. If Acuna loses a body part tomorrow in a car accident, he’s still guaranteed the money.
Appreciate the grudging respect. I felt the same way about the Phillies when they traded Crawford and got Segura. Phillies did really good in trading the upside of Crawford but also the uncertainty and struggles for the steady bat and glove of Segura. Just had to shake my head because I knew the Phillies did good in that deal.
Wow. Whoever negotiated this contract for him should be fired. I understand 100 million guaranteed is nothing to sneeze at. But, giving up 4 free agent years? That’s crazy. He probably could’ve just gave one away with one team option and got a similar deal. Then, still get to free agency in his twenties. Great deal for the Braves. Maybe they use the money saved with him to add stud SP.
I think it’s a great deal for the Braves. Of course injuries could hurt them or Acuna may not play up to expectations, but you can say that about any long-term deal. This is a much better contract then they gave Freeman in 2014 and that turned out to be an excellent deal. Freeman had three full years under his belt by then so you had a better idea what you were getting, but Acuna looks to be a special player already. When we look back at this 10 years from now we’re gonna say the Braves made a great move.
Acuna wanted this. He loves Atlanta, loves the fans, and loves his teammates. Not everything is about money. If he is happy that is what should matter.
System is broken. Between all that leverage teams and their billionare owners on one side have, and your family on other side, what would kid do.
It’s a shame what is going on, and how billionares manipulate young kids, keeping them down or signing off your future with this contracts. Kids realy don’t have a choice.
Acuna could have played his way to free agency and possibly got a lot more money. He chose the security of a long-term contract.
Oh my god. Just go sit in a dark corner and suck your thumb why don’t you.
Great job on the braves.. Acunas agent should be fired. Degrom was getting over 17 million in arbitration a year. Acunas contract ended in 2023 at the age of 24 (harper/machado 26). Acuna is going to be the next trout. 100 million is great but he just lost out on another 250.
So proud for the braves to be able to lock him down. honestly scared me that we couldn’t afford him by the end of his arbitration. Huge win for the braves!!
Did you ever consider that maybe Acuna is ok with it, and he wanted to stay with the Braves on a hometown discount? It’s not ALWAYS about the top salary.
I’m sure an agent works at the direction of the player, and Acuna wouldn’t sign this if he felt otherwise.
Finally….great move