More than 200 MLB players are currently eligible for arbitration, meaning they are on a team’s 40-man roster and have enough service time to have their salaries determined through the longstanding backward-looking system. At the low end, this includes players who qualify for Super Two status, the exact cutoff for which is not known yet for 2020. The Super Two cutoff typically falls around two years and 130 days (written as 2.130) but has fallen as low as 2.115 last year. The high end of service time would be anyone short of the six years needed to qualify for free agency, even one day shy like Kris Bryant.
Potentially arbitration eligible players have been getting pared from 40-man rosters since the offseason began, but those that remain will be subject to the non-tender deadline. This deadline is at 8pm ET on Wednesday, December 2nd. By that point, teams must inform arbitration-eligible players whether they will receive a non-guaranteed contract for the 2020 season, or else become free agents. Once a player is tendered a contract, the two sides will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings kick off in February. Non-tendered players immediately become free agents who can sign with another team for any amount. Those will be added to our free agent list and tracker.
There is a general expectation among baseball writers that this year, arbitration eligible players will be cut loose in record numbers due to teams’ financial losses in 2020 and uncertainty for 2021. Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs recently explored recent historical non-tender data, suggesting that the number of players being cut at the deadline already has been on the rise. My guess is that we’ll see a handful of players cut that normally wouldn’t be, but nothing wildly abnormal.
As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially choose not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least a 10 percent chance of a non-tender, but this year I’ve included some long shots who are probably less likely than that.
It should also be noted that some of these non-tender candidates will be traded prior to the December 2nd deadline rather than simply cut loose. Some could also be claimed by another team on waivers. Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projected salary and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered. This is known as a pre-tender contract. Multiyear extensions are another possibility.
Determining arbitration salaries will be especially difficult this offseason, which I’ve written about here. That difficulty also applies to the arbitration salary projections Matt Swartz provides each year for MLBTR, which can be found here. In this list, I’ve provided Matt’s “Method 3” arbitration projections. On to our list of non-tender candidates:
Catchers
Curt Casali, Reds ($1.8MM)
Elias Diaz, Rockies ($850K)
Austin Hedges, Indians ($3.0MM)
Omar Narvaez, Brewers ($2.9MM)
Gary Sanchez, Yankees ($5.5MM)
Pedro Severino, Orioles ($1.4MM)
Tony Wolters, Rockies ($2.0MM)
First Basemen
Danny Santana, Rangers ($3.6MM)
Second Basemen
Hanser Alberto, Orioles ($2.6MM)
Johan Camargo, Braves ($1.9MM)
Greg Garcia, Padres ($1.6MM)
Shortstops
Orlando Arcia, Brewers ($2.8MM)
Erik Gonzalez, Pirates ($1.2MM)
Niko Goodrum, Tigers ($1.6MM)
Daniel Robertson, Giants ($1.1MM)
Pat Valaika, Orioles ($1.1MM)
Third Basemen
Kris Bryant, Cubs ($18.6MM)
Travis Shaw, Blue Jays ($4.5MM)
Left Fielders
Tommy Pham, Padres ($8.0MM)
Eddie Rosario, Twins ($9.6MM)
Kyle Schwarber, Cubs ($7.9MM)
Center Fielders
Albert Almora, Cubs ($1.575MM)
Delino DeShields, Indians ($2.1MM)
Brian Goodwin, Reds ($2.7MM)
Guillermo Heredia, Mets ($1.3MM)
Right Fielders
Ben Gamel, Brewers ($1.7MM)
Nomar Mazara, White Sox ($5.7MM)
Tyler Naquin, Indians ($1.8MM)
Jace Peterson, Brewers ($700K)
Designated Hitters
Jose Martinez, Cubs ($2.1MM)
Daniel Vogelbach, Brewers ($1.4MM)
Starting Pitchers
Tyler Anderson, Giants ($3.7MM)
Yonny Chirinos, Rays ($1.6MM)
Chi Chi Gonzalez, Rockies ($1.2MM)
Jon Gray, Rockies ($5.9MM)
Robert Gsellman, Mets ($1.3MM)
Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox ($1.7MM)
Steven Matz, Mets ($5.1MM)
Carlos Rodon, White Sox ($4.5MM)
Jose Urena, Marlins ($3.9MM)
Vince Velasquez, Phillies ($4.0MM)
Right-Handed Relievers
Justin Anderson, Angels ($700K)
Matt Andriese, Angels ($1.9MM)
Shawn Armstrong, Orioles ($800K)
Matt Barnes, Red Sox ($4.1MM)
Ryan Brasier, Red Sox ($1.0MM)
John Brebbia, Cardinals ($800K)
Austin Brice, Red Sox ($700K)
Luis Cessa, Yankees ($1.1MM)
Adam Cimber, Indians ($800K) – designated for assignment
A.J. Cole, Blue Jays ($800K)
Jairo Diaz, Rockies ($800K)
Seranthony Dominguez, Phillies ($900K)
Carlos Estevez, Rockies ($1.5MM)
Michael Feliz, Pirates ($1.1MM)
Trevor Gott, Giants ($700K)
Ben Heller, Yankees ($700K)
Jonathan Holder, Yankees ($900K)
Corey Knebel, Brewers ($5.125MM)
Luke Jackson, Braves ($1.9MM)
Joe Jimenez, Tigers ($1.0MM)
Keynan Middleton, Angels ($900K)
Colin Rea, Cubs ($1.0MM)
Hansel Robles, Angels ($3.9MM)
Nick Tropeano, Mets ($700K)
Dan Winkler, Cubs ($900K)
Left-Handed Relievers
Scott Alexander, Dodgers ($1.0MM)
Alex Claudio, Brewers ($2.0MM)
Grant Dayton, Braves ($800K)
Wandy Peralta, Giants ($1.0MM)
Kyle Ryan, Cubs ($1.2MM)
Chasen Shreve ($800K)
I will eat my shoe if the cubs non-tender Kris Bryant. normally, you guys do a good job. This was a clear oversight… I’m starting to wonder if Dierkes is becoming a White Sox fan with that type of sentiment.
It has nothing to do with fandom. I think there’s a small chance the Cubs non-tender Bryant, maybe 5%. I’m not sure what you mean by oversight…his inclusion is something I thought about, and then did.
I see the cubs gladly trading him away before non-tendering him if payroll becomes that big of an issue. Its the type of move that figuratively explodes in the cubs’s FO face 9 times out of 10. They can easily unload him at the deadline and save nearly half of his salary that way as well.
The Cubs will have trouble finding any return of value on a trade of Bryant.
Unless he gets hurt again or never comes out of his slump/funk.
Why? Other teams jump at big players with a year remaining. Tim’s not impulsive to include Bryant but cubs fan is right, y’all don’t think the Cubs would take on $9M (half) of that remaining to get a prospect out of that? Hell. Yeah. They would.. Then again Jed Hoyer’s running this team now; let the wheels fall off!!
He’s not worth $19MM now and wouldn’t get much of anything in a trade. A trade right now is predicted on a team thinking he can help them more than whomever else they could acquire for the same trade package. In other words- they implicitly assume he will rebound a significant amount. That rebound also means they can issue a QO. Your assumption is that he rebounds enough for someone to not only pay the prorated salary but do so without the added benefit of being able to make a QO. Sorry – that’s too big an assumption for me.
He’s not worth $19MM now and wouldn’t get much of anything in a trade. A trade right now is predicted on a team thinking he can help them more than whomever else they could acquire for the same trade package. In other words- they implicitly assume he will rebound a significant amount. That rebound also means they can issue a QO. Your assumption is that he rebounds enough for someone to not only pay the prorated salary but do so without the added benefit of being able to make a QO. Sorry – that’s too big an assumption for me.
He’s not worth $19MM now and wouldn’t get much of anything in a trade. A trade right now is predicted on a team thinking he can help them more than whomever else they could acquire for the same trade package. In other words- they implicitly assume he will rebound a significant amount. That rebound also means they can issue a QO. Your assumption is that he rebounds enough for someone to not only pay the prorated salary but do so without the added benefit of being able to make a QO. Sorry – that’s too big an assumption for me.
He’s not worth $19M now based on one fact—COVID and its economic impact on the sport. Period. Going into last season, prior to COVID, Bryant was trending to $27-$28M in arbitrartion (based on Arenado’s numbers) .
Yes, yes, yes he had a terrible season of 36 games and that damages his value–to the Cubs–and the Cubs only.
The financial impact to the Cubs damages Bryant.
It’s a two way street. And unfortunately, they appear to be in the same lane driving towards a collision.
Heck in the division alone Yelich, Votto, Suarez etc all regressed or had terrible years—-problem for Bryant is that he’s within a year of free agency. Votto and Yelich get to keep their money. Castellanos has the option not to opt now.
If the Cubs don’t want to pay Bryant $19M this season—someone will pay him something of value to him and he will take the chance on himself to revitalize his career.
You don’t think he can rebound? He turns 29 in January and is one season removed from a .903 OPS. A 60 game seasons might not carry the weight you think it does.
They’d do okay.
How? He isn’t a bad player, coming from a Giants fan
Groundhog Day
My question would be this…in a year where the $ might be more vital than the prospect, would the Cubs really pay $9MM (essentially what it would boil down to) to grab a prospect, and likely not an elite one, or would they reinvest that $9MM into the international market, or another player? I’ve thought this dilemma through and I’ve come to 2 scenarios that make sense for the Cubs:
1. Cubs pay him
2. Cubs nontender him
Tendering him, then eating $ for a prospect doesn’t seem to make sense. Then again, I’m wrong a lot.
@Brac2brac
Pretty sure you meant predicated, but other then that, I tend to agree with you.
If the Braves strike out on Ozuna, or if they decide he’s too expensive, I wouldn’t mind them trading away Bryse Wilson, Trey Harris, and Greyson Jenista for Kris Bryant and 5mil.
Or they could add Ender to the package, knockout the 5mil, and then swap out Jenista for a better prospect like Tucker Davidson..
I think hitting between Freddie and d’Arnaud could do Bryant some good, and being healthy and on a more competitive team could reignite Bryant’s bat.
Predicated
@BravesFan
Yes predicated and of course only one copy of the comment not 3x. Wonky tech on my phone in both cases.
I like your idea- I’d don’t know those players within the Atl System, but I know they have prospects to spare, like one year deals, he fits on the field and in the lineup and you also add enough money to address financial realities/ risk. The ability to QO him also has value. You’ve given both sides a broad based set of benefits- Atlanta’s as mentioned above and Cubs by ‘getting something’ rather than risk a down 2021 performance to get nothing, save $19MM and a good selection of prospects for a situation where virtually no club will offer a single high quality prospect. Well done.
Getting a prospect even if marginal is better than cutting him with no return received.
Being a contract year it’s unlikely the Cubs non-tender Bryant BUT they are one year removed from the debacle of Bryant suing the Cubs and it would be a big statement by the Cubs to non-tender him.
I can see cubs non-tendering him. If it was your money- you’d non tender him. It’s much closer to 50% than 5. Especially for all u covid lovers out there.
Wow bot I really wouldn’t lol let’s be honest: what is a talented starting third baseman supposed to cost for a good team in 2021? Closer to $5M or closer to $25M? I’m not trolling, $18.5M for a 3B is insanely good value considering he’s a third overall pick of a draft, a 3 time all star and former MVP all before 30.. Like the guy was an all star in 2019. He had 36 “bad” games?!? He’s worth a top 100 prospect minimum if they had to trade him. And none of this is happening anyways since they’re most likely gonna dump Schwarber’s .230 career BA and poor defense instead of paying him close to $10M so great problem solved
People don’t trade top 100 prospects on a whim anymore. He would certainly net some interesting prospects, making his non tender candidacy clearly 0%. Why would the team fight so hard in courts for the extra year of control over him, just to non tender him? 5% chance is completely asinine for any logical front office executive sitting on a home grown asset with an mvp on his mantle.
$18.5M for a 3B is insanely good value
—————————————————
I absolutely agree. He is definitely an injury risk, so I’d need my medical team to do a thorough job on him, but he is a 5 WAR player, if healthy.
Too many folks over-estimating one injury-filled season.
But is it really “one injury-filled season?” He had a bad/injured 2018, rebounded slightly in 2019 and then had a terrible 2020. His career has been trending down, not up, which it should be as he is just entering his “prime years.”
So far Kris Bryant’s career reminds me very much of David Wright’s. Both started off amazing, but became above average/average as they entered into their prime because of injuries. I hope I’m wrong and Bryant can get back to an MVP caliber player, but I don’t see it.
Evan Longoria had a similar career arch as well.
But is it really “one injury-filled season?
—————————————————–
I did stipulate that he was an injury risk. If this was a l/t contract, I would agree that injuries are a much bigger factor for a 5-year contract.
But if the doctors found no evidence that the 2020 inury(ies) were a recurring risk, I’d pay the guy his money. I’d much rather a one-year commitment than a huge commitment like Arendao.
To me, this is more like the Donaldson gamble that Atlanta made.
Rebounded slightly in 2019 is a massive understatement. He was a 5 WAR player w/ a .900 OPS in 2019. Even if he isn’t MVP Bryant. A 5 win guy is certainly worth 18 million bucks. But I pretty much agree with Joe completely here. He’s an injury risk but a worthwhile one.
They fought hard in court for the league and it’s system. Bryant winning that lawsuit would have been catastrophic and led to a wave of countless other claims based upon the precedent it would have set.
The fact that it is now questionable that the Cubs want him for the extra year is irrelevant to the court proceedings.
A judge would also be borderline incompetent to rule against the Cubs in that case because of what it would mean for the rest of the country. The Cubs followed the rules set forth in the CBA. Ruling against the Cubs would then potentially lead to invalidating all CBAs. If the courts are going to throw out speccific parts of a CBA, what would be the point of having an agreement to start with?
I agree. Schwarber is much more likely to get non tendered than Bryant.
I don’t understand Cessa and Matz on your list- especially Matz with the Mets new ownership. I dont think it is likely either is non-tendered.
Agree. Mets are in no position to throw away pitching, even a disappointment like Matz. Gsellman on the other hand has been given enough chances to repeat his rookie success and has been a dud. And Sandy no doubt remembers Gsellman’s “I don’t care” remark.
I think Matz might be destined for the bullpen. He had some success for 3 innings. One time through the lineup should be his limit.
Can you expand? I don’t remember that one at all.
Matz is 1/9 to be non-tendered.
Don’t understand relievers in general who have 3-4+ years of control, 2 plus pitches, of which one is a 96+ mph FB and only estimated to make around 1m via arbitration being on this list of relievers (Brasier).
Think list is flawed somewhat.
Yeah and his lack of production with a nearly 19 million price tag, that’s not completely out of equation. Put your fandom shades aside and you’ll see his production has been declining last few years.
I get it, Mr Dierkes. & a 5% chance sounds so reasonable. I read it and think, “yeah, that’s probably fair”.
Ya know?
But I also see where @justacubsfan is coming from. And I’d imagine other fan bases will propose similar offers to consume an item of clothing.
Me?
Gary Sanchez.
Boxer shorts.
0.00% either Bryant or Sanchez are non-tendered.
It’ll be yet another current Chris Davis type year for Sanchez as starting catcher for the Yankees. Meanwhile the Mets will swoop in grab Realmuto and finish in 3rd place in the NL East in 2021.
@lordd99
Covid19, the huge arb salary for KB and the fact that Brad Hand wasn’t claimed make KB’s non-tender chances something more than zero. Still very likely he is tendered bc there’s more retribution to a baseball Executive for cutting him and then seeing him excel elsewhere than there is for an Executive who tenders him only to get a bad or injured season from him.
Cubs going into the season prefers a trade to all other likely scenarios, but they don’t have a lot of time to make it happen before Dec 2nd. I’m betting they tender him and try to trade him by paying down some of the salary. The deal probably ends up like kissing your sister bc they won’t get hi quality prospects, but will save ~ $14MM
@McGriff
Not even close, sir.
&, your jealousy is unbecoming.
Yeah i see it as a small chance too unless the cubs really need to dump salary. One bad “year” on a short sample I think you can give him a pass on given he has been consistently good before every other year.
I find it more likely a trade would happen and anyone who doesn’t have a quality 3rd option would seriously consider for a 2021 run.
There are a lot of big names baseball people who think this is a real possibility given the Covid loses
Crazy isn’t it? Or maybe not.
Whatever, it feels like you could put a competitive squad together out of this list.
Tim also states that it is a long shot in the article, sooo
KB was a lock to be on this list. His arbitration number is much higher than his value right now. If they can’t move him, they will absolutely non tender him
Come on now… even if his salary is higher than his value, the Cubs aren’t going to non-tender him. One, while the Cubs don’t have a ton of payroll room, Lester and Quintana just came off the books. The Cubs are one of about 6-7 that will pay more than their value to someone, because they have the budget to get away with it. Plus, how would the front office look if they did that? To Chicago I mean, not baseball. And what kind of pushback do you think they’d get from their player-loyal fans. Look, if this was Oakland, sure. If this were Cleveland maybe even. But big market teams aren’t tied to the same value game other teams are. Sure, it’s smart to look at it, but they can blow it on a few guys, especially if ur sells more tickets/viewing. The Cubs aren’t going to do this, even if it would be smart for several other teams.
Can the Cubs take Bryant to arbitration and then release him if not happy with the resulting salary? Would that be preferred to non-tendering him? Doing arbitration has the chance of retaining him at an appropriate salary (less than $18.6M).
That Baseball Fan:
Well they could, but they wouldn’t want to because they’d still be on the hook for the amount determined by the arbitration. Arbitration is deciding the amount of the contract for the following season. It’s a contract whether it was mutually agreed to or settled by arbitration. MLB contracts are guaranteed.
Going to arb, and then releasing him would be the last thing they would do. He would be picked up immediately and the Cubs would be paying his salary (minus the league minimum) to play for another team.
Not true. Arbitration contracts are not guaranteed. They can be cut into spring training and only have to pay a portion of the contract.
Correct.
However 30% of 18 mil is still a lot of money.
Players on arbitration contracts who are cut on or before the 16th day of Spring Training are owed 30 days’ termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). A player cut between the 16th day and the end of Spring Training is owed 45 days’ termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). The arbitration salary becomes guaranteed if the player is on the 25-man roster when the season begins.
cjb1125 & mparkinson2:
Thanks for the correction. I’m surprised teams are able to do that, but I I was wrong. I learn something every day.
That Baseball Fan:
Sorry for the misinformation.
If Kris Bryant is non-tendered, he will be picked up faster than we can say his first name.
I thought Brad Hand wouldn’t make it past three teams yet he made it through all 30 so I wouldn’t be surprised if Bryant’s trip through FA was a slower one.
Bryant would clear waivers and become a free agent. Not many clubs out there looking to pay $19 million for one year of him right now.
If he gets non-tendered, he immediately becomes a free agent with no contract value attached to him. He will not go on waivers and no team would be required to pay him $19M as that is just a ‘guess’ of what his non-guaranteed salary would be had he gone through arbitration.
That’s right. Usually players are put on waivers prior to being non tendered. I had it backwards.
exactly. no one knows what these owners are going to mandate. they’re not used to losing tons of money
Not for $18 million he won’t. He would get a 1/7 deal not much more.
Nope. Not likely.
Dierkes states that Bryant has a 5% chance being non-tendered..just 5..and now all these reactions like he said Bryant non-tender is a SURE thing.
Hypothetically speaking there’s certainly a team that would take a 19 million dollar 1 year gamble on KB. Much like Donaldson did with Atlanta. I don’t believe covid revenue loss has cut payrolls so significantly that there isn’t at least 5-6 teams in baseball that would take that shot. Cubs included.
I get Tim’s inclusion because it’s a talking point and there’s a very tiny chance. But that’s a bad look for CHC especially after seeing Theo forego his salary.
The Braves would certainly give that to Bryant. Fits Alex Anthopoulus’ MO to a tee. If the Cubs are truly intending to move on from Bryant, I’d bet money he’d be a Brave.
I posted that elsewhere. This decision is very, very similar to the Donaldson decision. Donaldson came off of a bad, injury-filled season. He still got $23M from Atlanta, And he provided a 6.0 bWAR season.
And Bryant is at least as investment-worthy as Donaldson.
Dude I’m usually not one to jump on anyone’s tail on here but God do I want to see you eat your shoe!
They should non tender him with an arb salary right now. An arb salary should never get that high
It’s a lock Bryant is non tendered. Cubs are losing money worse than most teams. Theo said two weeks ago 70% of Cubs revenue is from tickets, food, concessions. One reason Theo left early was to save the Cubs $9.5 mil and he couldn’t deal with all of the people they have already fired.
@justacubsfan
They won’t non-tender Bryant. They would trade him just to get something back before they would non-tender him and get nothing back (except salary relief).
He won’t get even close to what he’s worth in a trade, but that scenario is much better than letting him go, the Cubs being left empty-handed from that situation.
I’d be very surprised if he’s not in a Cubs uniform next season.
Agree they won’t do it. I know this isn’t popular but the orioles won’t do that to Alberto either. Definitely not gonna happen. He hits LHP at one of the best rates in all of baseball and has been a valuable player. He would bring value to ANY team. He’s not a superstar but he’s not a bad player….. especially for under 3 million
I can’t wait to see this.
Kris, is that you?
What sane GM would give up anything of value for Bryant? If the Cubs think they have someone that can put up decent stats in his roster spot for $500k, why would they risk that insane arb salary?
Guess you didnt read where he said “this year I’ve included some longshots”.
I don’t think the Padres will non-tender Pham. He’s a good player and the Padres need to keep him.
would you take Pham or Marcell Ozuna?
Well, you won’t get Ozuna for 8M contract next year, and Pham won’t be as bad as he was (his .253 BABIP will regress toward the mean).
So I’d still take Pham over Ozuna.
Same. I would rather have Pham than Ozuna because Pham is a much cheaper option. I think Ozuna is a better hitter, but I wouldn’t want to spend $70 million on him when we could just give Pham $8 million.
Even though the players they traded away to TB are a sunk cost at this point, I think SD is going to tender Pham because it would look incredibly cheap to trade for Pham, have him play 30 games for SD and then non-tender him because you don’t want to cough up $8M. Granted Cronenworth has come through big, that would still just be a huge waste of prospect capital if they didn’t intend to have Pham play for SD in 2021.
He was about a 3-4 WAR player in 2018 and 2019. If you get anywhere near that output he’s totally worth the cost.
Exactly. It’s not fair to criticize Pham for struggling in about 30 games. If he played a full season, I would expect his numbers to look a lot better.
@CNichols sunk cost fallacy. You said it yourself. You don’t tender a guy when he doesn’t deserve it because you gave up value to get him. Hunter Renfro is on the list too.
Even though it’s not completely rational, people do take into account sunk costs when making decisions. My point is that even if it’s not rational or the wisest decision making, SD is going to be more likely to incur a future cost to salvage value out of the trade.
That all being said, the relevant cost for Pham is the $8M he would make this year. (Or for Renfroe the $3.7M). Setting aside all the sunk costs, it still makes sense to tender Pham because if you get the 2.5 WAR out of him like Steamer projects then he’s worth the price. Renfroe on the other hand is protected for .1 WAR by Steamer, so he’s really not worth tendering at $3.7M because he’s essentially replacement level.
If you think Pham will be worth 2.5 WAR in 2021 then yeah, tender him. But if not, you don’t give him more $ than he deserves just because you overpaid in prospects for him a year ago. What you do is non-tender him then bring him back for less $.
He fared well in the playoffs. The keep him
Another thing to consider too if San Diego can move Myers contract now that his value is up. Which if they do can help Pam be tendered.
@stubby66 Myers being moved or not moved has no bearing on whether or not Pham gets tendered. Only Pham’s value does. If they can’t move Myers but Pham is worth more than what he is projected to get in arb they tender him a contract then trade him to the highest bidder.
@CNichols you are basically making the same argument as the people who say that whoever trades for Lindor absolutely HAS to sign him long-term to justify it.
Ozuna has been an over rated player much like heywood
No, I think CNichols is making a different argument. He is saying that the Padres should offer Pham $8 million because he is worth $8 million, not because of what they gave up for him. If you think that 2020 was an aberration(I do), then paying $8 million for one year of Tommy Pham is a great deal.
You can’t move Myers. A good half season of AB’s made him more valuable but the covid revenue cuts effectively nullified that. He’s immovable on that contract without taking in a ton of dead money.
The problem with pham, or renfroe, or trying to move myers, or even trying to decide to tender Bryant is simply this:
You cannot approach THIS offseason as if it were November 2019.
While we don’t KNOW yet, the expectation is that $1 buys you MORE this arc than it did the last one. Why? 1) teams absorbed a ton of losses and debt last season. 2) teams are on a whole going to have marching orders from brass to be incredibly THRIFTY this time around.
It’s easy to say ‘billionaires have money, they can afford it.’ Reality is, 1) they don’t sit around with liquid cash assets in the bank because you don’t make appreciable asset growth off uninvested cash. 2) it doesn’t matter what frozen asset you sell, after covid you’re probably looking at losses. REITs and commercial property is in the crapper. Stocks/commercial paper may be below acquisition and capital gains hurts. Bonds/funds can have early sale penalties.
They don’t want to lose money, then cover those losses with money they have to lose even more to get their hands on.
So, if you HAVE money, there’s talent that arguably won’t have the upwards bidding pressure of a normal offseason.
Prediction: talented players on expiring expensive deals will be tough to move. Execs won’t want to ‘give them away’ but others won’t want to give assets to pay 3x 2020 cost/war output of some FAs. FAs will want to scream collusion at tony Clarks prodding since teams will insist not having the money to go around, and it’ll be a crapshoot. Players will want big bonuses to offset covid 2020 part 2 risks, and teams will want friendly long term deals to make that happen because that cash is at a premium right now. Deferred salaries may appear a staple.
Ozuna prob will b picked up as DH somewhere, in 2020 that’s mostly where he played
Must be a mets fan
@dan55 CNichols literally said that he thinks the Padres will tender Pham because of what they gave up to get him…
“Even though the players they traded away to TB are a sunk cost at this point, I think SD is going to tender Pham because it would look incredibly cheap to trade for Pham, have him play 30 games for SD and then non-tender him because you don’t want to cough up $8M.”
In reality, the Pham decision will come down to money and nothing more. And if it doesn’t then it might be time to move on from Preller.
Pham is suing the strip club where he was recently stabbed, claiming that his injury will result in “loss of income” and impair his ability to perform as an “elite professional baseball player.”
I think he may be seeing the non-tender writing on the wall.
they arent signing another position player to a huge contract
Ozuna, no doubt
I think they’re much more likely to non tender GG than Pham. Garcia is also a pretty good player, but he didn’t seem to have a spot anymore after the emergence of Cronenworth.
Yeah I agree with you. I love Greg Garcia, but with Cronenworth at second I don’t really see the need for him anymore. I think Garcia and Perdomo will be the only Padres to get non-tendered this year.
Says who?
Remember Pam is recovering from a knife wound so that could very easily make the choice for him to be non tender, but I do believe it was a minor one
It was a 12 inch long and 5 inch wide stab wound, so I don’t know if that’s really “minor”, but it was a month ago and they said he was making a full recovery and that he was going to be able to do his full offseason routine, so that shouldn’t really play into this.
Pham was stabbed in the back outside a SD night club near his car. He was not involved other being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
If he has not sufficiently healed why would SD want to pay him if they can non-tender?
I agree. Pham is perfectly capable of putting up enough production to justify $8 million. More likely than not, IMO.
I’m on the fence about Pam, he looked like one of our worst players in 2019. Could he rebound,? Maybe. Garcia and Perdomo provided more value.
The stabbing incident? Who here has been stabbed before? Not me, I keep out of trouble. In fact I don’t argue in public, confront people or put myself anywhere near a situation like that.
Was he in the wrong place at the wrong time, maybe
I’m mixed on Pham
The best bang-for-your-buck guy on this list is EASILY Yonny Chirinos. I love the dude, he has nasty movement on his pitches, and he’s constantly a super underrated starter and people don’t even know it. I hope he gets non-tendered so that the Rangers can sneak him away because he’s really good.
I agree with your statement but he will likely be out all of 2021 due to TJS
Dangit. When did all of these pitchers get TJS? I don’t remember Chirinos or Kahnle getting TJS, and now I realize they’re both down with it. I knew Chirinos was out for 2020, but I didn’t even bother to think TJ.
I believe that both were late in the year. Chirinos will surely be out all year, at least as a starter, although Kahnle at least has an outside chance at returning before the end of the ’21 season since he won’t have to ramp up as much. I don’t really know what the correlation is with TJS at the end of the season but it is usually one of the big spikes, along with the spring, as we’ve seen Kahnle, Chirinos, Clevinger, Burdi, Verlander, Luis Perdomo, Dakota Hudson, etc.
Kahnle appeared in one game this year and went down with a UCL tear,
If they NT Chirinos (I don’t think they will), , 29 teams will be ready to give him a backloaded deal. 2021? Cheap, he’s injured. 2022? Decent money, since we don’t know if they’ll be a stoppage. He’s actually sitting pretty, if things work out right.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him non-tendered. The Rays are notorious cheapskates and $1.6 million may be more than they believe they can pay for someone that will be out the whole year, no matter how good said player is.
He’ll be traded, not non-tendered. No matter how cheap the Rays are if they can get something for him they will.
Probably to the Pirates for Hayes and Mitch Keller.
No way. Pirates hang up immediately
Shannon Wolfe it’s a joke about how the Pirates got robbed on the Chris Archer trade.
I think there’s a chance the Rays determine Chirinos isn’t worth it. Numbers suggest he’s been a bit of an overachiever. (Still a very competent big league starter though)
But coming off TJ—it’s essentially a 3.2 million dollar gamble for 1 season. The Rays run a tight payroll and quite honestly they pump guys out like Yarbrough and Chirinos all the time. A no name semi prospect like Josh Fleming came up and had success for them last year. I wouldn’t be completely shocked especially if they want to save some money to bring back Morton.
Though that’s not completely correct because you can offer Chirinos arbitration again. Which should be relatively cheap. The Rays or at the least another team may value that enough to give the Rays something for him. That’ll be an interesting one to see.
Man, is there anything more ironic than if Bryant were to get non-tendered?
I’m not sure if it’s ironic but it would be interesting to see who and if he’s picked up at that salary. If no one picks him up then it would be a foreboding sign for his future free agency.
If Bryant gets non-tendered, he has no salary attached to him. He is an instant free agent with no contract value owed to him.
It’s ironic because of how hard the cubs manipulated his service time when we was a rookie to gain this additional year.
Tried so hard is a real stretch. It was just 10 days in the minor leagues. Blatant ST manipulation? Sure, but they’re just playing the game with the rules that are written.
Mike Olt fractured his wrist on Saturday and they didn’t put him on the DL till Wednesday. They were off Thursday, and Bryant came up Friday, one day after his service time deadline. It’s beyond normal manipulation when a team goes a man short for four games.
In retrospect, it was an awful decision by the Cubs. The got hammered by the press for messing with Bryant and it definitely impacted club morale. And now the Cubs have forced themselves into a very difficult decision. On the open market, Bryant would not get $18.6 million in 2021. The Cubs actually MADE Bryant money by manipulating his service time. Bad look, bad business.
It impacted club morale enough to win a World Series, make three NLCS appearances and earn five playoff berths in six years.
“In retrospect, it was an awful decision by the Cubs.”
No, it was a fantastic decision.
“… and it definitely impacted club morale.”
Do we actually have any tangible evidence of this? The five playoff appearances, three division titles, best record in the NL in 2016, tied for it in after 162 games in 2018 and their 2016 championship in the six years since Bryant got called up all seem to suggest the opposite.
“On the open market, Bryant would not get $18.6 million in 2021.”
If he is tendered a contract then that means this simply isn’t true.
“Bad look, bad business.”
FANTASTIC business.
I’d be very surprised if they non-tendered him. Way too many folks in here are writing off players because a shortened season, with hardly a real spring training.
That was my thought as well. Highly unlikely it would happen, but oooohhh.
Rain on your wedding day.
A free ride when you’ve already paid.
Good advice the cubs just didn’t take
It figgers
Giants should tender Peralta a contract. They should, IMO, let Gott go as well as Coonrod. There will be better RPs than those guys for the same price, or less.
Considering Coonrod is still pre-arb and has 2 MLB options available, there’s absolutely zero reason to not tender him a contract.
He definitely needs more time to hone his pitching, but I can’t imagine the Giants letting him go for nothing.
@john, I didn’t realize he was pre-arb (or he probably would’ve been on this list). Thanks for the clarity. Point well taken.
I think the Giants should trade Gott. He needs a change of scenery. He throws 97+, that’s not common. And if he didn’t blow those 2 saves we’re singing his praises.
Most fans won’t forget those blown saves so let him figure things out elsewhere. I still dont think the 2nd blown save was his fault; it was all on Gabe Kapler.
So you think the Rockies are just going to non-tender their entire team? I could see Diaz going, but no way they NT their starting catcher, two of their better bullpen options, and two starters that are all on decent salaries for their skill sets.
Just gonna throw this here for anyone who skipped over…
As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially choose not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least a 10 percent chance of a non-tender, but this year I’ve included some long shots who are probably less likely than that.
That’s completely fair. I just wanted to definitely debate the KB non-tender by the cubs. Idk if even on earth-2 that happens.
what about Middle Earth?
Wait, you mean we’re supposed to read the lead-in and context information and NOT just jump straight to the list???
Or the comments.
That’s reasonable, but ultimately what does it really accomplish. I don’t expect you to see into the future and know exactly what teams are going to do. But a list that includes players that are likely to be non tendered along with what you call long shots without identifying which are which is not very informative. Perhaps if instead of grouping them by position, you could have sorted by confidence levels or something. Or sorted them both ways.
You guys normally do a fantastic job with your in house stories, but I can’t help but feel a bit underwhelmed by this one.
hiflew:
I disagree. Teams are probably looking at a list of their potential NTs that’s not much different from their guys listed here. What if MLBTR left some guy off the list because of the low probability, and the team non-tendered him due to some set of circumstances not readily apparent?
I think it’s incumbent on the reader to take into consideration the low probability of some of those listed. MLBTR would not be doing their job not to list every possible candidate. And I think asking for them to grade the likelihood of each might be asking too much.
But Mr. Dierkes said they were grading the likelihood of each candidate, so I don’t understand the harm of sharing that information with people that just have the time or the desire to delve that deep into the process. As I said, I don’t expect them to accurately see into the future and I also wouldn’t expect any type of punitive measures should they be mistaken.
I don’t care about most of these guys, but I am legitimately curious what a professional in the business considers the likelihood of the Rockies guys being tendered a contract. And I am sure there are fans of other teams that are just as curious. But to just chalk it up as somewhere between a long shot and a virtual guarantee is like betting on a horse race simply based on a hunch instead of looking at the odds.
Didn’t mention Yolmer Sanchez with the Orioles who claimed him on waivers from the White Sox. Think he would be a non tender candidate
@geotheo
Why bother claiming Yolmer on waivers if they’re going to non-tender him a month later? Seems silly to me.
I think the jays bring back aj cole. That is a very cheap deal and he pitched well enough last season.
was surprised he was on this list, tbh. Cheap salary and pitched well
Below average K rate and walk rate. FB heavy pitcher as well. In a small sample size he was definitely serviceable. The salary is likely cheap enough to tender, but he’s certainly a regression candidate. Guess it depends how likely the Jays front office believe that regression will come.
I’d be shocked if Sanchez is non tendered with the lack of catching options available. I can easily see him traded though.
I would not. He’s bad.
and also was an all star the last 162 game season
Chris Carter hit 41 bombs with .821 OPS with Milwaukee the season immediately before he got non tendered. Gary had one slightly above average offensive season sandwiched in between two bad ones with horrible defense for all three.
Carter was a DH, not a catcher.
Sanchez is a DH in reality.
@tad2b13 EXACTLY
and a bad DH at that
And Clint Frazier is a DH too?
Half the yankee lineup is DHes. Stanton, voit, sanchez, andujar, hicks… the only decent fielder is a free agent. DJ, not Gardner.
Judge is an excellent RF.
So the red sox fan continues with the Yankees obsession. Your misery brings me joy.
As a Mets fan, I see Matz. Shreve however should be retained.
I’d like to see the Padres get Matz if he becomes available. He seems like a solid pitcher who can give you around a 4 ERA who should be cheap because he’s coming off a bad season. Without Clevinger, we’re going to need some good depth options at starting pitcher.
Matz is someone who I think will do well with a change of scenery and a pitching coach that can help him make the necessary corrections to his delivery
LOL at Matz!
That great Mets pitching staff of Harvey, Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz and Wheeler really lived up to the hype. 1 out of 4 is not bad. LOL!
MarlinsFanBase I have no idea what point you are trying to make with that comment. Degrom is a Hall-of-Fame pitcher, Syndergaard is a very good #2 starter, Wheeler looks like he could also be a very good #2 starter(or at the very least a competent #3), and Matz is a competent back of the rotation type pitcher.
For some reason, Marlins Fan Base is obsessive about the Mets. I’m sure no one in the Mets organization has any interest in anything he says.
So out of five hyped pitching prospects, one turned into a multiple Cy Young winner and one of the best starters in baseball and two became productive #2 or #3 type starters. I think most teams would kill for that success rate on young pitching.
I know bashing on the Mets is your schtick and I actually think you’re correct on a fair number of the points you make, but this one was a whiff.
Trolls gotta troll
But if you look back over the years it’s nothing new with the Mets and pitchers.
The list may well be conservative. Teams will be non-tendering players in hopes of finding bargains in a flooded free agent market.
Compare Yankee catcher Gary Sanchez, who made the list of non-tender candidates, with Pirate first baseman Josh Bell, who did not make the list.
Sanchez and Bell come with two years of team control heading into their age 28 seasons. MLB Trade Rumors projects Sanchez with a 2021 salary of $5.5 million and Bell with a 2021 salary of $5.7 million.
ZiPS and Steamer project Sanchez with 2021 WAR of 2.8 and 1.6 while projecting Bell with 2021 WAR of 2.1 and 1.0.
A Pittsburgh club that is not expected to compete in 2021 may just cut Bell loose.
Or not.
Sanchez should be a no brainer. Cut him loose.
cutting Bell loose after one bad year when their team payroll is barely nonzero is a complete waste and a good way to alienate your fans for good.
Yeah the Pirates are not really spending anywhere so they might as well keep him rostered and try to recoup some value out of him.
That team needs to acquire assets in pretty much any way possible so non-tendering someone who could potentially provide value seems like a step backwards.
Bell might bring something worthwhile in a trade. Or not.
Pittsburgh isn’t going to cut Bell. They are a non competitive team right now, so they’re better off letting him play and waiting for another team to try to trade for him. The reason people think the Yankees will non-tender Sanchez is because he has struggled and the Yankees are trying to win now. Sanchez is holding them back.
If no DH, where do you play Bell? Moran and Hayes have the corners. And even that paltry sum is a lot for a small market team to pay a spare part. I agree that they should keep him and hope he rebuilds value, but this is Nutting, ya know…..
I think Bell would make sense on the list. I did give him some thought.
A year ago Jesus Aguilar was a 29-year-old first baseman a year removed from a 35 HR, 108 RBI season when the Tampa Bay Rays waived him. Aguilar had a projected 2020 salary of $2.3 million in his first arbitration year.
Josh Bell is a 28-year-old first baseman a year removed from a 37 HR, 116 RBI season. Bell has a projected 2021 salary of $5.7 million in his second pass through arbitration.
Bell may suffer the same fate as Aguilar … or not.
i think Chi Chi could be a nice upside add for a rebuilding team like DET or BAL.
For the price, I just don’t see Niko Goodrum going anywhere. He’s solid defensively everywhere, a switch hitter, a fast runner, and likely penciled into the starting 2B or LF job for the team.
why would any of Dayton, Winkler, Dominguez, or Middleton be non-tendered? none is making much of anything and have plenty of upside to cover that.
Manny Pina of the Brewers probably belongs on this list.
I’m surprised that Jose Urena isn’t already making plans to be non-tendered. The very second all of our young pitchers started showing the talent, Urena was a goner….unless he had a Cy Young caliber season.
AJ Cole can be taken off the list. Blue Jays are keeping him unless he’s injured.
Could add Derek Fisher. He should have been dropped after his second dropped fly ball in September.
Isn’t Fisher pre-arb? They can just pay him league minimum.
He might be more of an out of options issue than a non-tender situation.
He is out of options. He’s also out of his league in the majors and does not belong. AAA is perfect for his skills.
Out of options players get cut at the end of spring training, not now.
With his talent, maybe Fisher could make something of himself in Asia.
Cut him yesterday.
Jays have a 40-man roster to figure out soon. Having Fisher removed gives them an extra spot to protect a guy from Rule 5. That is more important than the timing of his dismissal. Jays are not giving up on him. That’s a bad move on their part.
The Jays non-tendered a pre arb player last year. I can’t remember who. A relief pitcher I think. I remember because there was a certain number of obvious non-tender candidates and there was an article headline that said they had non-tendered that number of players. But the headline was just a tease. One of those non-tenders was a pre arb guy and Brandon Drury had been tendered a contract.
Well guest there is plenty of room right now, when the Jays non-tender Travis Shaw they will have 34 players on the 40 man leaving 6 open spots. Jays could make 2 ML additions and still have 4 open spots in advance of the rule 5 draft
Do they tender Cole or just repeat the process that produced a Cole? Sign a bunch of guys to minor league contracts and then see who wins a job in spring training. I suspect they just bring Cole back at that rate as it’s not a huge raise. He could be one of those guys competing for a job in ST. If he doesn’t make the team, they just owe him a month or so of severance pay. I guess it depends on how much they need the roster spots, but as you say, there are out of options guys like Fisher, Valera, McGuire they could make decisions on too.
Fisher and Valera can go. Reese needs to stay for now. I’d rather take my chances with a Forrest Wall than Fisher.
Yeah, I agree. I don’t think they should hold on to those guys just to give them a shot in ST. Even if Cole is competing for a bullpen job, they do need to have roster spots dedicated to the bullpen.
Yes. I think Cole makes the roster in my mind. I thought he was more than adequate last year.
I want the Cubs to non-tender Bryant just to read the comments
Is Pedro Severino really non-tender candidate at that low price? Good defensive backup C.
He has no arm. Even the Yankees run on him. Though I doubt he’s a non tender.
every ten years, nontender complete rosters and have a draft
Severino and Casili would fill the Angels timeshare needs nicely.
The reliever market this year is beyond flooded and this will just make it worse.
There’s almost zero chance that the Reds non-tender Curt Casali. Not at that low salary, and not while Derek Johnson remains their pitching coach.
No way Phillies get rid of Siranthony
Wow, there are some names on here that 2 years ago I would have laughed at you if you would have told me
Robert Stevenson had a pretty damn good year for the Reds in ’19…My money says they hang onto him
Agreed. He’s still got potential and he’s barely projected above the league minimum salary. They’d effectively save nothing by letting him go.
The Kris Bryant decision is a two year decision. He’s not worth his current $19MM arb value, but if you cut him then you get nothing. If you tender a contract then you have the same decision next year about a qualifying offer. The question is Do you really think he can improve enough to turn down the qualifying offer? I think he’s plateaued and is worth around 5 / $80MM as a FA. He’s a player Ive pumped and dumped for the last several years at our auction. I want no part of him in either the Roto or Real world at the salaries he’s been going for. Im not sure he’d turn down the QO since it’ll tamp down his market. Getting stuck with him for two more years at almost $40MM is a very bad bet to place. So trade him at all costs before Dec 2. Get a little something and move on.
If you cut him, you save $19m. $19m will go a hell of a long way this off-season. It could have already bought Brad Hand and had $9m to spare.
If the Cubs don’t think Bryant is worth $19M/yr. then pretty much every other team will feel the same way. The only way Bryant brings back any assets is if Chicago takes back some salary back in the deal. For example, Bryant traded to the Braves for Inciarte & a good prospect or two. If a team takes on Bryant and cannot send salary back to Chicago, then they will offer nothing more than a lottery ticket for him, as he has perceived negative value.
There is a chance that Bryant and Chicago could agree to a pre-tender and sign a 1 year, $10-$12M deal in lieu of going to arbitration or free agency via non-tender. Chicago saves money, Bryant doesn’t have to move for just one year and he gets the chance to rebuild his value for free agency. That would require Bryant swallowing some major pride, which seems unlikely and might upset the MLBPA as well, but who knows in this financial environment what players will agree to.
I don’t think Bryant will take a team friendly deal after the whole situation involving the Cubs manipulating his service time.
Agreed. The Braves scenario makes perfect sense.
I honestly don’t see any team willing to trade even a lottery ticket + pay Bryant’s entire salary.
Taking a one year $12 deal with Chicago that includes a provision that they can’t make a Qualifying Offer and he doesn’t have to move during a second potential covid season isn’t a bad deal. It’s not an ego thing, it’s just business.
@Brac2brac no QO clauses are not legal in baseball
“… as he has perceived negative value.”
Noooooooooope
The Cubs can’t trade Bryant because there’s no team that would give up anything for the right to pay him$19M. And it makes no sense for the Cubs to pay part of that $19M just for the chance to maybe to get a prospect in return. Either the Cubs keep him this season or non-tender him now. Those are really the only two choices.
Or package him with Contreras. Blue Jays are one team who’d deal for Bryant straight up and take that contract on. Cubs could use a bullpen arm (which the Jays have) and a prospect outside of the Top 15.
Add Contreras and the return is much more.
$4.1M for Matt Barnes seems awful expensive for the suddenly penny-pinching Red Sox. While Boston needs all the bullpen help it can get, it sure feels like they good do better than Matt Barnes for $4.1M especially in this market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be non-tendered.
IMO, Brasier is probably the safest Boston bullpen arm to be tendered and that’s no guarantee. The relief market will be flooded on December 2nd. I’ll be shocked if Barnes isn’t non-tendered.
They don’t want either of the Relief pitchers back. They were not even passable in the early season. They need to start a new. Where Bloom will find anyone is anyone’s guess. But he will need someone to stock the Bullpen.
Where Bloom will find anyone is anyone’s guess. But he will need someone to stock the Bullpen.
————————————————————————-
That’s exactly why, imo, Brasier is a lock to be tendered.
We already need 1-2 BP arms. Why make that number 2-3 by non-tendering Braiser?
Or. put another way, if we save $1.1M on Braiser, who do we sign to replace him? Using that same $1.1M?
Who’s going to give up tons of prospect capital or young players for the honor to pay Kris Bryant nearly $20 million in 2021 knowing he’ll probably want to test free agency regardless of how he performs next year? The non-tender possibility is a real one. He’s just not that valuable of an asset with that price tag along with the Cubs unrealistic asking price.
Theo jumped ship rather than trade any of the franchise cornerstones, I don’t blame him, very tough situation to be in for their front office.
“Who’s going to give up tons of prospect capital or young players for the honor to pay Kris Bryant nearly $20 million in 2021 knowing he’ll probably want to test free agency regardless of how he performs next year?”
A team that believes 2020 was an aberration and wants to win in 2021 is the answer to that question.
Interesting theory about Theo. Ostensibly he’s a burned out Executive, hence the ” I’m taking a year off rhetoric’. It takes a fair amount of strife to walk away from a job you like and $10MM. The idea that he’d be pressured to do something he didn’t like or more likely thought would damage his career sounds plausible.
Here is my suspicion.
1-He or his agent get a call from ‘someone’ who speculates that the NYMs or Philly, hinting that they are interested, and maybe the is equity involved.
2-Theo suggests to Ricketts that maybe this is the time for Hoyer to take over, since he will be making a lot of forward-looking decisions.
3-Ricketts sees the logic in not having Theo make the decisions that Theo won’t be accountable for, and sees he can save $10M, and agrees.
4-Theo leaves, Hoyer gets promoted, Ricketts saves $10M, the NYMs give him a $100M contract, including equity.
5-Theo hires Hill on a shorter-term contract, pulling the strings behind the scene.
Everyone goes home happy.
My suspicion is that Theo is being groomed to be the next Commissioner of Baseball. He’s the perfect replacement for Manfred.
They could literally tender and trade him for a bucket of baseballs if they wanted to. Considering he’d probably earn a guarantee in excess of $200 million if he somehow entered free agency, I’d imagine tons of teams would give up a couple minor leaguers for a year of Bryant around $20 million.
I doubt the Mets will non-tender Shreve, but the rest seem like safe bets.
I am interested to see what becomes of Matz though. I wouldn’t be surprised if the new regime takes a flier on him at a lower price, but I imagine he could see some interest as a reclamation project
I’ve watched Matz from day one. He might actually have a better future as a hitter.
Honestly, I think his struggles are very real due to other teams figuring him out. I sat in my living room three years ago and foresaw this. The guy just has zero command of his breaking pitches. That means he falls behind in counts as teams lay off everything but his fastball which is 96 and straight. Watch video of him sometime. Even his fastball strikes are usually well off the intended target.
He got to the majors because he’s lefthanded and throw hard with decent movement on his breaking pitches. The reality is that the Mets (or he himself) have failed yet again to develop another young pitcher. Maybe some other team will? Ultimately, it’s up to Matz to figure it out, adjust and adapt.
The story circulated that he bucked at listening to coaches. His father was his coach and, under Callaway, possibly convoluted the team advice. Matz might just be lost in his own head. He’s never struck me as someone who can battle through struggles, maybe he’s never had them like this in the past?
He needs a fresh start and an open mind. The Mets coaching staff, especially on the pitching side, has been a mess for three years.
Looks like every brave on this list needs to go. You can argue Camargo to stay as a full time bench utility player…. but even then, he’s become pretty boring and doesn’t seem to want to be playing baseball in general
I’m sure other fans have voiced their objection about their own players, but the chances of the RS non-tendering Brasier have to be about -0-. Barnes also, but at least he earns real money.
But Brasier at $1M is impossible to replace. A career 3.58 and 2.95 K/W, with similar results last year. And getting paid scarcely above minimum wage. I’d guess almost every team in BB would offer him $1M.
Past that, as a RS fan, I’d be interested in the Renfroe situation. I think he is worth his $3.7M, but on TB, limited funds, some outfielders available, he might be just rich enough for TB to cut him loose. I’d take a chance of moving Verdugo to CF, and sign/trade for Renfroe to play RF. Shaky, but cheap.
Barring that, I’d also ask TB about Kiermaier or Margot. I doubt they’d be interested in having redundant CFs making real money. For a team like TB, they might chip in half of Kiermaier’s salary, and he is a decent player.
Did every starting pitcher on this list just blow up or not put in the off season work? Every one of them had an era well over 6.00.
Going from Spring Training, to stopping for pandemic, and then coming back for a shortened season. We are also seeing it in the injuries.
The Tigers will absolutely keep Jimenez. I realize he’s just a candidate to be non-tendered, but trust and believe the Tigers pick up that tab.
So far though, Joe Jiminez has been disappointing. Still, I don’t see the Tigers giving up on him quite yet.
Right on. He seemed to have some mental issues. Something got into his head and wrecked his confidence. I say that because I saw the pitching coach sharing a tender moment with him. I thought the coach wanted a kiss, but Joe was mad and on the verge of crying.
do you really see the Mets not keeping gsellman?
The twins non-tendering Rosario would be a very bad move
If I had to make one critique of the article, I think the RP category is much to broad. Some of them are just bad pitchers at any price. And a few are good pitchers that might not be worth their price.
But more than a few are almost minimum wage RPs, like Brasier, Cole, and Cessa. No team in BB has enough of a BP and/or a farm that it would make it worth while to replace an average MLB RP, worth $1M or less, with a minor leaguer making $563k.
You need to review in terms of risk/reward. Do the BJ’s have any minor leaguers that can pitch as well as Cole, and are the BJs confident enough to make that gamble, when they only stand to make $237k?, if they are successful?
The RS are already in the market for 2 RPs. How much would it cost them to pick up a 3rd RP that can pitch better than Braiser? With the general disclaimer that anything can happen, I think it is virtually impossible that the RS would cut Brasier.
I agree on Brasier, but I do see Boston non-tendering Matt Barnes. While I like Barnes, there will be better RP options available under the $4M amount Barnes stands to get in arbitration. They also acquired their next Matt Barnes from Colorado in the Kevin Pillar trade. He’ll need one more year in the minors, then he’ll start lighting it up in Fenway.
Barnes at least is in the range of non-tendering. I wouldn’t do so, because it feels like it would make a problem area even more problematic, Barnes has a consistent 3.88 over the past 5 years.
After the Workman trade, he had a 3.38, with a 19/6 K/W in 13.1 IPs. 9 saves against 3 BS, Nothing special either way. I’m hoping that the RS come to an agreement with him on something less than$4.1M.
Pirates are licking their chops with this list of potential dumpster dives.
Imagine all that hoopla over holding Bryant down for those two weeks in 2015 just to give away the extra year that earned them.
That’s not even in the realm of possibility when the Cubs could easily get at least a bucket of balls back at the minimum for one year of Bryant around $20 million.
They would still get a lot on the market for 1 season of Bryant even with the year he had
It would be pretty funny if after all that drama around Bryant’s service time he ends up being a FA this offseason anyway.
I think that there’s another class of player who will be non-tendered, and that’s fringe 40-man roster players, regardless of arbitration eligibility. With the contraction of the minors and 40-man roster spots needed for free agent signings and trades, those players could be considered expendable. An example of that is someone like Walker Lockett in Seattle. He occupies a 40-man roster spot, but really doesn’t have a role other than minor league roster filler. He could easily be let go and re-signed to a minor league contract. That has happened every year, but those non-tenders are easily outnumbered by the arb-eligible players. I think that percentage will increase dramatically, especially in the face of financial losses accrued by the teams due to the pandemic.
If the Yankees are truly trying to get below the CBT threshold this year, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them try to trade Sanchez before the non-tenders are due and if they cannot, they could very well non-tender him. I don’t see any team willing to pay Sanchez $5.5M to bat below .200, strike out 35% of the time and lead the league in passed balls. Maybe he’d agree to a pre-tender instead and sign a $2M contract + incentives with the Yankees. Regardless of where he ends up, 2021 is the most important year of Sanchez’s career. He either proves that he is a valuable major league catcher (or 1B) or he proves that his career as a starter is done and will have to fight for one year deals the rest of his career. Unless he gets in better shape, I’m guessing it will be the latter.
I decided to have some fun with this list and go over my Top 5 safest players on this list. As in these are the players I personally believe are least likely to be non-tendered.
1) Kris Bryant: this one seems pretty unlikely to me. If the Cubs non-tender a former MVP before he turns 30, it won’t be a good look for the front office. That being said, Bryant is making a LOT of money next season and it appears more likely that he’s not in the Cubs’ long-term plans.
2) Eddie Rosario: another player who isn’t even 30 yet and unlike Bryant, Rosario is making far less money. Less than 9M for a player of Rosario’s caliber seems like a pretty great deal in my opinion. Did he have a down year in 2020? Yes, but if you look at Rosario’s career numbers I think it’s easy to chalk that up to the weird schedule. I would expect a bounce back year in 2021 for Rosario and to give that up for nothing seems like a questionable call for a team that’s in win-now mode.
3. A.J. Cole: he’s making less than $1m, the Blue Jays are looking to stay competitive and with plenty of question marks in their starting rotation the Jays need to have a reliable bullpen. Cole had a solid season coming out of the ‘pen for Toronto last year. Keeping that type of arm for that price seems like the right move.
4. Robert Gsellman: he didn’t perform well in 2020 as a starter, but I don’t expect he’ll get that type of exposure as a starting pitcher moving forward. I expect the Mets will pay his 1.3M and put him back in the ‘pen in 2021.
5. Gary Sanchez: while this isn’t completely out of left field, the Yankees seem very hesitant to give up on Sanchez. He still puts up elite power numbers but he’s a terrible defender and doesn’t hit for enough average to justify his bat. My guess is that the Yankees will roll the dice and play Gary enough in 2021 where he either a) finds his hitting form again or b) gets traded/released mid-season.
If you disagree with my list, feel free to tell me why and who is in your Top 5 safest players.
I think Gsellman has a reasonable chance of being non-tendered. The Mets already have a pretty solid chunk of change committed to the bullpen for 2021, plus they’ve already brought in some cheaper arms to compete for those front end slots (Tropeano, Vizcaino, Barnes).
Regardless who agrees, this is a good list and I appreciate you two putting it together.
Anyone who is being paid $19M for poor defense and .190 is a non-tender candidate. If the Tigers (or any team) could non-tender and not pay Miguel Cabrera, they would.
I would be shocked if Niko Goodwin gets non tendered. He can play multiple positions, switch hits and can run well.
Matt Boyd is a non-tended candidate. $5.5m-7.5 is a ridiculous amount for such an uncertain season and his production #’s. It seems like a no brainer. Half SP’s on this list would be cheaper and safer
If Boyd is non tendered, Tigers fans will want Avila fired immediately.
Not this one
You must’ve been asleep for the Matt Boyd “un”sweepstakes in 2019. For a laugh, check out the comments from every Matt Boyd story.
Nope, I just moved on. You have never over-estimated a player? Have you never seen a team over value a player? It happens. It won’t be the first, won’t be the last. Imo, this time DET needs to non-tender
And your Tigers should move on from Avila.
Tigers need to find trade partners with any player in Arbitration. They are so far away from contention. It’s going to be another rough year, I just don’t see the point of signing another round of Crons, Romines, and Schoops of the league; just to finish well under .500. I hate “tanking” but if there is any year to retain control of your organization, it’s this year. Let the farm play Rogers/Haase, Woodrow/Stokes/Robson/Sedio, Pinero, and Zack Short. I mean any DET fan would prefer to see Faedo get the start before Boyd
I think the Tigers will at least be Wild Card contenders by 2022. Tork and Greene should both be in the majors by then, and the big three starters will have some big league innings under them. Add some supplemental pieces and they should be ready to win 80-86 games.
I would rather FO trust the scouting/player development-farm, and save whatever FA $ when it matters towards contention. I have yet to see a positional player, w the exception of Castro & maybe Candy, that are building blocks on the current active depth chart. DET could add Bauer + Realmuto and still would be a <70 win team. Why not save money or get the stud to build off of when they are much closer?
As a Mets fan, I’d take Luis Cessa in the bullpen as a long relief option.
I can’t see Orioles dropping Armstrong. Quality reliever at 800k
Cubs should start the season with Bryant, and hope he plays up to his potential. Add some guys who can hit. At the deadline, see where they’re at. Trade him if it makes sense. If he’s having a bad year and won’t bring anything, let him finish the season, make him a low QO, and hopefully get a draft pick if he signs somewhere else.
No such thing as a low QO. It’s a fixed mount, about the same he made in 2020.
Phillies would take Bryant for Odubel if his value is that low. And any of the ‘top’ position players in our farm. Lol
Kris Bryant has been worth, on average, 6.2 WAR per 162 games for his career. You can hoot and holler all you want about how his skillset has regressed, but if he can produce even half of that in 2021, he’ll be worth what he’s projected to get in arbitration.
But what people need to stop doing is suggesting trades that involve the Cubs eating some of his salary. He’s still in arbitration, which means the Cubs owe him absolutely nothing for 2021 at this point. They could non-tender him if they want, but what absolutely won’t be happening is the Cubs paying to get rid of him.
I’d love for the Jays to make a package for Bryant/Darvish, Bryant/Contreras deal
I don’t think the Cubs will be trading Darvish (or any MLB-ready pitching). Bryant and Contreras are possibilities for the Jays..
Hanser Alberto will be interesting if non-tendered. LA could use a multi-position infielder that hits lefties well to replace Hernandez. Alberto would also be a nice way to ease Lux into the mix. Alberto players 2B against left handers and Lux against righties.
I’d love to see KC go for Pham if he’s NT’d.