The final qualifying offer decisions are in, as both George Springer of the Astros and J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies have declined their qualifying offers, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Astros and Phillies will receive compensatory draft picks if/when they sign with another club. The final tally has four players declining (Springer, Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer) and two accepting their qualifying offer (Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman).
Realmuto, 30 next season, will be the top catcher on the free agent market by a wide margin. His power and athleticism is unmatched behind the plate, and he’s faster than he looks. Realmuto has everything you look for in a catcher, but at 30-years-old, there are still some questions as far as how well he’ll fare in the current climate. Time will tell, but after slashing .273/.333/.492 with 36 home runs over 192 games in his Phillies’ tenure, Realmuto should have no shortage of suitors. The tastemakers here at MLBTR pegged him as 2nd on our list of Top-50 Free Agents in the market, naming the Mets, Reds, Nationals, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, Cardinals, Astros, and Angels as potential suitors.
Springer, 31, has his own bugaboo that makes this foray into the free market an interesting one. There are few holes in his resume, but the part he played in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal will continue to be a line item on any story involving Springer. Still, with a 153 wRC+ since 2019, the ability to play center or left, and 5.0 rWAR per 650 plate appearances throughout his career, Springer will get some attention this winter.
Besides, not that we believe in this sort of thing anymore, but he’s nails in the postseason. He boasts a playoff triple slash of .269/.349/.546 over an absurd 63 career games with 19 home runs and 38 RBIs. That extrapolates out to 49 HRs and 98 RBIs over 162 games. He’s tied for 4th all-time in playoff home runs and currently ranks 5th in championship win probability added. We temper our expectations when it comes to sustainability in high-leverage situations, but we can still marvel at the success Springer has managed thus far in his career (with the now-usual caveat for his part in the sign-stealing).
The MLBTR soothsayers have Springer third on our Top-50 Free Agents list, with the White Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets as possible destinations. Even with the rejection of the qualifying offer, a return to Houston cannot be ruled out either.
The off-season starts in 3,2,1 GO!
You mean 3 months? 2 months? 1 month? 🙂
It’s still going to be very slow going. Teams are now going to wait on the non-tenders to get a complete view of what’s out there. There could be many. Then they’ll wait out the free agents over the coming months. They’ll look at trades, but prospects are really going to be highly valued now by the teams that have them. Good players with only one year of control remaining that teams want to trade are discounted already. I believe they’ll be discounted even more coming off the financial issues of the COVID year. Not sure what teams will be able to get for a Lindor or a Lynn.
I don’t think Lindor will be additionally discounted. He didn’t have a great 2020, but the down year (statistically and economically) will likely affect his arb amount, too, and if it does, then that takes care of any value that would otherwise be taken away from the down year economically. The Indians aren’t going to get a guy like Lux, but they could get a couple guys in the top 100. Lynn is a little harder to pin down. He had his best year by some metrics, but was also 33. Yet with Stroman taking the QO and no real top-shelf options after Bauer, the market might be inflated for him.
We all saw this happening. Neither of the two that accepted it where worth that money
More shocking news. Played out as expected.
Mets will sign both these guys.
That would certainly be a Big Splash, uh.
I can certainly see them signing one of them, but probably not both. Of course, if Cohen wants to make a statement, that would be one way to do it.
Yeah, probably not.
It’d be ill though.
If I had to pick one, I’d say JTR is the better option for them. He’s truly elite at his position, whereas Springer is just very good, he’s younger, and it would be stealing him from the Phillies. He makes an awful lot of sense. Of course, that’s also one of the reasons I think the Phillies are going to be inclined to be very aggressive in retaining him, for fear of him going to the Mets.
As one of the “elite” free agents he’s going to be interesting to track.
I think the Mets are going to spend. Cohen didn’t get hit with the lost revenue stuff. Though…I’d imagine he was impacted by all this stuff?
Well…either way I think he wants to make some splashes.
I’d bet the Mets are at least somewhat in on both these guys, man
In on both, absolutely agree. It’s landing both where I have my doubts. Either way, I’m reasonably sure Mets fans won’t have much cause for complaint this offseason.
D’accord.
Always take the field.
I think they’ll have some fun. Man…I’ve never seen such an extreme buyers market in MLB.
It’s not stealing him from the Phillies as he’s officially not on the Phillies right now, but I understand your meaning.
How many teams are in a good financial position to sign these guys for a somewhat longer term?
The Mariners have under $35 million on the books after 2021 – tons of flexibility.
Anyone else?
Plenty. The difference is who’s willing. The Red Sox can afford them and have need for all but Realmuto, not that he wouldn’t be an upgrade over Vaz. I don’t see them pursuing any of them though. I almost wish theyd go after DJ just to up the eventual price for the Yankees when he re-signs there.
Boston is an even better fit for springer now that we see how Henry and Bloom apparently love to hire cheaters.
That said, Henry is also cheap these days and sick of his shiny red sox toy (thus the desire to take them public and cash out.)
Henry is not “sick” of his “shiny Red Sox toy.” He is not trying to cash out and get out of the business.. FSG also owns Liverpool FC which is one of the top football teams in the world and has enormous international appeal, which the Red Sox don’t. Henry is using a SPAC to go public and cash in part of the enormous profit. he has made since acquiring the Red Sox and Liverpool. Rather than making Henry “cheap”, this will make Henry and the FSG much more financially able to play with the Yankees and the Dodgers. You have totally misread what this all about.
Years of paying the luxury tax, even in non-competitive seasons and getting burned on big contracts to Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, David Price, and even Rusney Castillo would make any owner gun shy on spending big money on long term deals. If Springer or Realmuto are the right pieces Henry will spend but if they aren’t why sign them just for the sake of signing a “big name”
Henry is also cheap these days
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Are you insane? The RS are always in the top-3 in payroll. They will spend to the limit this year, just like they always do.
And go over the limit, if they are a contender for the WS.
just like they always do.
Realmuto can play 1B…Sox really don’t have one. 1B/C/DH…an intriguing combination.
Dalbec…
Dalbec and Chavis. Mitch Moreland is available and could be brought back. Rafael Devers could eventually be moved across the diamond if his defense doesn’t improve. First Base is not a major concern for the Red Sox
They have Dalbec, who is still a question mark, plus Casas in about another year.
And no one pays a record price for a catcher, to use him at other positions.
And the RS don’t have nearly as much money as people think, given that they need a CF, 1-2 RPs, a 2B, and an SP.
Dreaming on Dalbec and Casas is something second division teams do; might work out, probably won’t. And we’re not talking Wander Franco-s here.
The Red Sox, while no doubt suffered disproportionately to other teams with Covid-19, have a LOT of money. They control (i.e. profit from) most of the revenue associated with the team, between NESN, parking, concessions, and yes, even the Boston Globe. And there’s talk John Henry is after radio source WEEI. It’s not a team, it’s an empire, brilliantly reversely integrated to produce maximum profit.
Again, 2020 can’t happen again. They”ll find a place for JR if they want him. And yes, Devers probably belongs at 1B. But they can move the pieces around.
Dreaming on Dalbec and Casas is exactly what smart teams do,
The RS will spend to the limit, as always. The rest of the formula is easy. The spending cap, less current commitments is what we will spend.
And we will not spend that on:
A) Positions where we already have a good player.
B) Positions where have good prospects.
On a team where we need a 2B, CF, 1-2 RPs, and an SP, we are absolutely NOT spending on an upgrade at catcher.
I’d be 90% sure we won’t be signing Springer or Bauer either, and those are 2 positions that we need. But signing JTR to $100M contract to replace Vazquez is a pipe dream.
If I had to guess…
1. Springer – Astros.
2. Realmuto – Phillies.
3. Bauer – Angels.
4. Walker – Jays.
5. Paxton – Mariners.
6 LeMahieu – No idea.
Jerry?
Big surprise there. Now for the fun part: finding out where they land. Springer to the White Sox seems like a fit, if Jerry can be convinced to pry open his wallet far enough. Admittedly, they did offer Wheeler the most money last year, so he’s willing to spend to an extent. For JTR, that’s tougher, but I think the Phillies have a lot of reasons to keep him.
I think it’s is time for the Angels to make a move on pitching this winter. Trout isn’t getting any younger. I think they land 2 of the top pitchers, Bauer, and Paxton.
I also think Bauer winds up with the Angels. Not sure where Paxton lands. My gut tells me Toronto, but who knows?
I predict angels don’t get Bauer and then angels fans talk themselves into why it’s a blessing in disguise similar to Cole last year! Then they will talk themselves into drew smyly, mike minor and Paxton will be great ! Just a prediction
Probably on the injured list again.
The best and perhaps only way for Jerry Reinsdorf to appease White Sox fans in the wake of the Tony La Russa fiasco would be for him to sign at least one of the top free agents, the sooner the better. His team has a major need in their rotation and in RF. Coincidently, two of the top three FA’s this offseason fit the bill in SP Trevor Bauer and OF George Springer.
see a JT realmuto I feel like fans are going to miss you
NO WAY the Cards are possible suitors for JT. No matter what Molina does.
Remember you can’t buy a championship, and free agents are the worst investment in return for most cases. I do think the top guys will be worth the money, but after that it’s a crap shoot.
JT to the Mets, Springer to the Red Sox, Bauer to the Angels, and hopefully McCann to the Yankees!!!!
As a White Sox fan, I’m going to be sorry to see McCann go, but he’s definitely earned the right to start for a team. Yankees could do a whole lot worse.
I can see most of your predictions happening, but I’m not sure about Springer to the Red Sox. I get the Betts replacement angle, but offense wasn’t really their problem last year. That pitching staff needs an overhaul more than they need another slugger.
George Springer wouldn’t be replacing RF Mookie Betts in the Red Sox outfield. He would be replacing free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. in CF with Andrew Benintendi and Alex Verdugo flanking him in LF and RF respectively.
James McCann will be the top FA target of whoever losses the J.T. Realmuto derby. It could be the Yankees who still have Gary Sanchez. If it comes down to a bidding war I would bet on either the Phillies or Mets, whichever loses out on Realmuto.
I think it’s is time for the Angels to make a move on pitching this winter. Trout isn’t getting any younger. I think they land 2 of the top pitchers, Bauer, and Paxton.
I think Bauer to the Angels is the likely scenario. They know Pujols comes off the books after 2021, so they can bridge the year. He needs a high-revenue team to sign him. Look at the possibilities. The Cubs are reducing. The White Sox under Reisendorf won’t go that high. The Yankees are focused on the luxury tax threshold and won’t touch him because his personality would be a major distraction in NY. The Mets have the payroll space but I don’t see Cohen and Alderson putting heavy money down over five plus years for someone who might be a massive headache. It’s not a risk they’ll want to take early on. They’ll spend their money on JTR and/or Springer and try to acquire a pitcher through trades. Angels seem like a good match. Wouldn’t rule the Red Sox out though. They’ve reset their tax and they have a history of going for the problem child.
I think the Blue Jays might be a player for Bauer. They don’t have a lot of big contracts bogging down their payroll, and they just made the playoffs last season. I think they will want to improve on last year by bringing in the NL CYA winner. I don’t know if Bauer wants to play for a Canadien team though.
Him on the Jays would make the AL East a fun division, especially as that lineup continues to improve. I don’t really think it happens, but I’d enjoy it.
Heh that sentiment has been put out there for years. The bottom line is that the Angels organization has not been smart at all.
Phillies fans love Realmuto , so does his teammates, city, and organization, including myself BUT I have to be completely honest….he’s not worth 20 mil a season. That’s HOFer type
Money, and sorry JT. You might be best catcher in baseball, but so was Lucroy a few years ago and where’s he at now?
There’s a pretty good chance one of these guys ends up with the Mets. I could see JTR & JBJ signing with NYM, or Springer & McCann instead. With Stroman accepting his QO, I don’t see the Mets adding (2) premium FA’s this year. Maybe they pass on both guys and sign Bauer instead. If that’s the case then McCann and JBJ would still be in play.
Yawn…
Cora loves Springer. Bring him in to play center when JBJ jumps to Arizona.
“Besides, not that we believe in this sort of thing anymore, but he’s nails in the postseason. He boasts a playoff triple slash of .269/.349/.546 over an absurd 63 career games with 19 home runs and 38 RBIs…”
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That’s not quite true. Teams do believe certain hitters are better constructed for the postseason, although not for the mythical “he’s more clutch” reasons. Analytics used to criticize belief in the “clutch” player, just like they used to criticize any team that would sign Brad Ausmus to be their catcher. His hitting was so bad they couldn’t understand why he held down a job for nearly two decades. Woops. Right towards the end of his career the analytics crowd discovered pitch framing, and retroactively they discovered Ausmus was one of the best pitch framers in the game. The pitchers knew that. The coaches knew that. The same now with “clutch.” Hitters who handle velocity do better in the postseason when they see more velocity, which allows them to have more clutch moments. It was the secret of Big Papi. it was the secret of Derek Jeter. It’s been the secret of many a “clutch” player. Often it’s not even a case of being better. it’s a case of maintaining the same level in the postseason they show in the regular season. Springer has had many great moments, but it’s more because he maintains his skillset, while other players often lose it.
Some of the stats are ‘the stuff legends are made of’.
Papi’ post-season OPS was ,947 against a regular season OPS of .931.
Similarly, Jeter’s playoff OPS was .838, while his regular season OPS was .827.
Certainly better in the playoffs, but not off the charts better. I think the legend is more about their teams winning a lot.
We started writing off playoff performance when it was a sss.
Now they’re playing 60 games over a few seasons.
Playoff performance should matter, but the sample size is important too.
If he wants to go back, Springer will be an Astros.
Nobody has a bigger need and the owner has already committed to spending to keep him.
That said, there is serious doubt he wants to resign.
Why is that? Meaning is there some rumors about why he wants to leave the Astros if the money is the same?
*BANG
The Free Agents are in better shape than you think.
1. You can always backload a contract, allowing for the uncertainty about attendance in 2021 and a work stoppage in 2022.
2. I completely think that they’ll be drastic changes in Revenue Sharing under a new CBA. For teams like the Yanks/Dodgers/Red Sox , donating a share of their revenue to their smaller market compatriots is a HUGE expense, an expense that they’ll look to seriously decrease. The Big Boys lost a lot of money this year; they’re going to want to recoup. And let’s face it, not every RS recipient has spent their money legitimately.
“The tastemakers here at MLBTR…” What are you eating?
Think they started off with an appetizer of bugaboo.
If you are going to continue to insist that the White Sox will be a major player for George Springer this offseason you might want to rethink the quote that he has the “ability to play center or left”. The White Sox are hardly in need of help at those positions with Silver Slugger winner Eloy Jimenez limited to LF and Gold Glove winner Luis Robert entrenched in CF for the long haul.
Where the White Sox do have a glaring hole is RF which is their only weak spot outside of a veteran TOR and perhaps a closer. DH was a problem for the White Sox in 2020 but they have top rated prospect Andrew Vaughn penciled in there and at 1B in a likely timeshare with Jose Abreu at those two positions. Starting C Yasmani Grandal also figures to see some time at DH and 1B when he isn’t behind the dish.
Springer plays RF perfectly fine if they don’t want to adjust the rest of the field
Free agents: “Hi, I’m calling for Steve Cohen”
SC: “who’s calling?”
FA: “free agent”
SC: “which one?”
FA: “all of them”
SC: Oh, right. Thanks for calling. I’ve got you pencilled in for two meetings here…
FA: Two?
SC: Yeah. Uh, says here the first is a ‘Leverage me against all other suitors to inflate your price’
FA: Right. And the second?
SC: Oh, just a quick follow-up. Y’know:’Desperately scramble for a Plan-C pickup once you ultimately sign with another team’
FA: OK, sounds good. Talk soon!
Something tells me Steve Cohen doesn’t desperately scramble for many things. Usually plan A gets completed under him
It’s the annual rite of winter. Every single winter, without fail, agents call up their favorite writer to push their free agents. And every writer links every FA with the NYY and the Red Sox. The proposed acquisition often times make absolutely no sense, but it is all part of the system.
I think Springer should be banned from playing baseball! They banned Rose for his gambling and cheating, they fired the GM for knowing Springer was cheating, and I think any team paying this dude any money to come play for them are enabling! Screw springer!
Geez get over yourself.
@Balk, Man your team must really suck if that’s all you have to comment on. Most teams in baseball cheat! You know that. “If you ain’t cheating you ain’t trying.” That’s a huge disservice to their teams if you don’t
. Astro’s were the scapegoats for the league. Ask Manfred he will tell you that. Lets just play ball and forget all the other crap.
Your comment is on point and proven correct when the Red Sox rehired the orchestrator behind the whole scheme.
Well, go ahead and keep thinking that. And then go ahead and keep watching it not happen.
And then…try not to cry when you watch Springer get friggin paid!
I got news for a lot of you whining girls on the Internet. GMs don’t care about George’s role in the “scandal.” He’s going to get market value and whomever he signs with, those fans who’s been booing them off the charts and “will hate them forever!” will welcome him with open arms. All of this faux outrage will be exposed as soon as he signs elsewhere.