Free-agent righty Kevin Gausman has until 5pm ET today to decide whether he plans to accept the Giants’ $18.9MM qualifying offer or reject it in favor of fully testing free agency. While Marcus Stroman’s decision to accept the Mets’ QO led to natural speculation that Gausman would take the same route — both are represented by agent Brodie Scoffield — Gausman isn’t a lock to do so. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Gausman has already received multi-year offers and is weighing those against the QO. The Giants are among the teams to have made a multi-year offer, Rosenthal adds.
It stands to reason that any multi-year offers for Gausman check in south of the QO’s average annual value, but historically speaking, free agents have been willing to sacrifice some AAV in order to secure a larger overall guarantee. If Gausman were to receive three-year offers in the $13-15MM range, for instance, that could certainly prompt him to forgo the heftier one-year payday.
The alternative, of course, is to take that $18.9MM sum, hope to bolster his stock with another strong year and return to free agency next winter without the burden of a qualifying offer; players can only receive one qualifying offer in their career, under the terms of the current collective bargaining agreement.
It should be emphasized that Gausman needn’t make a final decision on a multi-year contract today. All he’s required to do by this afternoon is simply accept or reject the qualifying offer. If he rejects, he could still take the coming days, weeks or even months to explore the market in hopes of securing a larger multi-year offer than the ones he has already received. The fact that Stroman is no longer on the market is surely a notable factor. Gausman was already among the market’s more appealing free-agent starters, and one of the names alongside him in the second tier (behind Trevor Bauer) is now off the board.
Bauer is in a class of his own this winter, but Gausman is arguably the best remaining option after him. Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi join him as solid mid-rotation options, and the market also features several high-ceiling veterans looking to rebound from injury-marred campaigns (e.g. Corey Kluber, James Paxton). Charlie Morton could be deemed the second-best arm on the market, but he’s limiting himself geographically and is expected to command a short-term deal given his age.
He’ll accept imo
lol who the heck is even offering him multi year contracts? Best he can do is take qo.
Anaheim should be but since they don’t have a GM…
They have a assistant GM in the interim
Anaheim has enough medicore pitchers that can’t make it out of the 4th or 5th inning. Gausman would only add to the heap of garbage over there.
Teams desperate for starting pitching
If you watched him pitch last year he flashed dominance from time to time. Outdueled Zac Gallen and should’ve outdueled Walker Buehler had the Giants bullpen not blown a lead in the 8th
What are you talking about…Kevin Gausman isn’t even in the same conversation as Walker Buehler. I mean, you’re joking right?
Not what I said… outdueling a pitcher is when you pitch better than them on a certain day and help your team win. Shows that Gausman is inconsistent but can flash the big stuff from time to time.
Learn how to read hardgo
Gausman was an effective starter last year.. How many pitchers had below a 3.62 ERA last year along with a 1.10 WHIP Even in 2019 he had a respectable 4.03 ERA . Plus he;s only 29. My question for you is why wouldn’t someone offer him a multi year contract
He’s a two pitch pitcher with one good season otherwise he’s been torched. @willy Mays
Really. He has a 4.26 ERA for his career. He’s had under a 4.00 ERA 4 times in his career. When you make comments it would be nice to check the persons stats in this age of the internet. It seems that applies to many of the commenters on this site
He hasn’t been a consistent starter since 2016. It’s easy to skew the stats. He had a short season where he was good. Hasn’t had an era below 4 since 2016 going on 5 years. 2019 he had an era over 6. Again easy to manipulate stats for your agenda.
His era+ also shows huge disparities season to season. That is exactly why he ended up with the giants on the contract he had
I guess I have a different Baseball Reference then you do or I’m better at math; He had a 3.92 ERA in 2018 which last time I checked is better then 4.00.Which means in the last 5 years he;s been under a 4 ERA 3 times so whos skewing the stats or just outright lying about them. Also his ERA in 2019 was 5.72. While not good is definitely not over 6. Either your stat sheet is wrong or you really suck at math
Wait are you his agent??? the guy literally threw 59 decent innings for once since 2016 and you wanna back up the brinks truck for him? Please! Gausman is a medicore pitcher, he hasn’t been all that good since 2016! His lone season for which he was trully above average. I’m sorry but you are clearly a bias Giants fan
I assume that was meant for me. Not a Giant fan I’m a Yankee fan. I don;t believe Gausman is a really good pitcher but he is a decent pitcher . If people here would actually check his stats they might see that. It is problematic that he seems to have a good year followed by a bad year but when you compare him to every other FA other then Bauer he looks pretty good. I’m just wondering if everyone thinks him too inconsistent why no ones bringing up the fact that Bauer had a 448 ERA in 2018 and since 202 hes only been under a 4 ERA. twice No one seems worried about his consistency
I meant 448 ERA in 2019 and under a 4 ERA twice since 2012
Sure right,if he don’t do, may be the biggest mistake he ever make ,take the QO and try to get a MYC
I’m pretty sure the Giants have a multi year offer too!
I don’t see Gausman as being the best of the second tier. That obviously goes to Morton, regardless of geographic preference. I’d prefer Tanaka and Odorizzi over Gausman, too. Also, if healthy (yes, I know it’s a big IF), Kluber and Paxton are better than Gausman as well.
I agree with what you said to some extent but Gausmans age and the fact he had a good year last year makes him a viable option without the age and endurance questions surrounding all those other pitchers. Remember Charlie Morton is 36 coming off a tough year. Tanakas trending downhill with a lot of wear and tear and Paxton is an injury machine. Kluber I think might be done.. I think everyone is thinking of the Gausman of 3 or 4 years ago’ Last year he had a better year then anyone else on that list by a healthy margin with a 3.62 ERA and 1.10 WHIP In 2019 he was barely over a 4.00 ERA
Probably wil take QO because he really is an ok pitcher but not a top tier, when he was with Braves and Reds mediocre @ best, after having better years with Baltimore
The multi year offers must be like 3/30 if he hasn’t accepted already. 3/45 he’d take in a heart beat. In his opinion the 2/11.1 on the back end is almost guaranteed unless his arm falls off, 6m/yr seems to be the going rate for a good pitcher gone bad. Being a young guy though he’ll have more chances in the market in 3 years and 30m isn’t anything to sneeze at.
Agreed. A 3/30 is an easy reject. He has basically a $19M offer in hand, so all he has to do is sign a 2/11, or a 5.5 AAV after 2021 to break even. Even with a meh year he’ll easily break that. A 3/36 you maybe think about it. A 3/45 I reject the QO. So I think the offers are below 3/45 and the agent is trying to get the offers higher by leaking this info. We’ll know in a few hours. Getting Stroman off the market helps, and it’s also convenient it’s the same agent.
A good pitcher gone bad. How many pitchers had a 3.62 ERA last year and a 1.10 WHIP. How does your gone bad remark fit. Gausman was a bad pitcher 4 years ago Two years ago he had a 4.03 ERA and last year a 3.62. That sounds more like a bad pitche who turned it around but maybe thats just me
I meant if he has a bad 2021 he can still get a $6m contract for 2022, that seems to be the rate for good pitchers gone bad. Just look at how many pitchers mlbtraderumors predicted at 1/6 or 1/8.
So he’d need more than 3/30 to go long term because it’s almost a guarantee he can get 30m going 1 year at a time, unless his arm falls off.
Anyone who signs him to a 3-4 year deal is shooting themselves in the foot. There is a reason his past is looked at so heavy. If you’d look at his career numbers and no just a season he had 7-8 starts you’d know he isn’t worth it. @willy may.
bravesiowafan:
Perhaps you should look at his career numbers. The problem is inconsistency, not one good year, as you imply. He had good years in 2014, 2016, and 2018, besides 2020. He had a decent year in 2015. Other than his age 22 rookie season he’s had only 2 down years. 2017 when he posted a 93 ERA+ and 2019 with an 81 ERA+. There could be an explanation for that like an injury. Who knows?
Despite the down years he has a respectable 4.06 FIP, and has struck out 8.5 per 9 innings over his career. Pitching is something that has to be learned, and it takes some guys a little longer to figure it out. The teams offering multi-year deals are looking at his career stats, and thinking he might be figuring things out.
His last good season besides shortened season was almost 5 years ago. His era+ shows how erratic he is. 2019 he had a cumulative 5.72 era. He had a half of decent season in Atl but if you look at the whole season he was garbage. There is a reason he was with the giants on the deal he had.
4 teams had him and didn’t want him back 2018-2019 that alone shows he isn’t the start everyone keeps implying just because the fa class is weak
You can’t split the year and say a good half year when analyzing a pitcher using stats. If you did that Tanaka had very few good years as he often starts slow and then smokes the last couple of months of the season.. In 2018 Gausman. had a 3.92 ERA so he had a good season period. It also should be pointed out that doing good in Atlanta meant he pitched good in important meaningful games as opposed to part of the year when he was pitching for Baltimore who was not a very competitive team that year. Look I;m not saying Gausman is some kind of gem here but everyone here seems to be implying this is some terrible pitcher with no redeeming value.
I agree he’s not great but what you said just isn’t true. In 2018 a terrible Baltimore team wanted to trade anyone they had of worth. A playoff contender thought he could help and was right. He only pitched for one other team not 2 more as you suggested and that was Cinncinatti and that was because he was bad in 2019 no arguing that.. Pitchers who get traded late in seasons are being traded not because they stink but rather because someone believes the player could make a difference. Judging by your logo you are a Braves fan. Do you believe the Braves were thinking we are in a pennant race and need help lets go out and get a bad pitcher..Btw he signed the QO
He made $10 million last year. I’m sure he is looking for a pay raise.
I’d love to see either Paxton, Gausman, or Kluber land with Texas.
Kluber in Texas would be more likely
No brainer – take the QO
Lucky to get 2/26m
Question for anyone: Have any QO free agents been signed for 2 years or less by a team forfeiting a draft pick? If so, when was the last?
Ozuna last year
Well how about that. Thanks!
keysox:
It’s not a no-brainer. Remember, as the article states, most players prefer a multi-year deal to a QO single year, if the numbers work. If he accepts, he is committed to pitch for the Giants in 2021. If he has multi-year offers from other teams, for more guaranteed money, he loses out by accepting.
And as to multiple multi-year offers, he has said he prefers to stay a Giant, but if SF’s offer is less than that from another team he has to weigh a lot of factors, like security and length of contract, geographic preference, team and organizational preference. It’s not as simple as you think.
I imagine Bauer feels pretty good about his current situation, especially if Gausman ends up taking the QO as well
When you look into Gausman’s 2020 numbers deeper, he begins to look more and more appealing. But I think in order to lock him into a multi year deal, you’d need to see he can sustain his success longer. Unless you’re really driving the AAV down by adding years, I’d wait until next year to sign him and just hope he accepts the QO.
You shouldn’t look too deep or you’ll get fooled. He had 10 great starts for someone who has always been inconsistent
Ya I agree with that. That’s why I think I’d want to see at least a bit more before seriously committing to him. But it is worth noting that he seems to have found a knack for the strikeout, and he wasn’t just padding his numbers against the bums of the division.
And maybe the most important factor is that teams are always desperate for pitching. Some team will be willing to look past the small sample, whether it will pay off or not is another question.
“All he’s required to do by this afternoon is simply accept or reject the qualifying offer. He could still take the coming days, weeks or even months to explore the market in hopes of securing a larger multi-year offer than the ones he has already received.”
What? I’m pretty sure if a player accepts the qualifying offer, that is his contract and since he’s under contract he is only allowed to talk to his current team.
i think they mean if he doesnt accept the QO he isnt nessicarily bound to sign right off.
I was saying that should he reject, he can still go out and explore the market. The point being that he doesn’t need to accept a multi-year offer today — just decide on the QO Itself.
Perhaps I should’ve been more direct with my wording. Updated for additional clarity.
Ah. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
FWIW I bet accepts.
No worries. If you read it that way, you probably weren’t the only one, so it’s good to have the feedback to be as clear as possible for others. Appreciate it.
JimTheGoat—You are correct.
i think Stroman accepting could actually cause Gausman not to. i think either in a bubble accepts, but one accepting enriches the other’s market by taking another good SP option out of the equation. perhaps both thought to accept, but were waiting to see if the other would move first.
I would love to see both Gausman and Stroman accept this soon for the sake of the Rangers. Just think, you have teams like the Blue Jays, Twins, Angels that need starters, but don’t want to spend huge amounts of money to get those starters. Stroman and Gausman would’ve been perfect for them. They might be hesitant to push all their chips in on Bauer (though I see the Angels doing it), and they don’t want a more liability esque pickup like Paxton or Kluber. So that leaves Tanaka, Morton, and Odorizzi. Of those three Morton wouldn’t go to any of the teams I just named due to geography (assuming he holds that true). So that leaves Tanaka, Odorizzi, and the trade market. And who’s on the trade market? Yes… LFL. I think these QO’s could seriously be driving up the price for LFL especially with his price tag. I’m excited.
Note: I forgot about a NPB pitcher who’s coming over, though I forgot his name, Not Ohno btw. I guess you could throw him in with Odorizzi and Tanaka.
I am warming to a trade possibility of Lynn, Leclerc, and Bahr for Rosario and Duran or possibly Sano for the same three above. Either way, Texas gets the major league ready player they need in Rosario or in Sano, both have reasonable contracts and with Leclerc and Bahr young controllable pitching which should be acceptable to Twins Kiriloff ready for 1b or LF so both Sano and/or Rosario become expendable It opens up some money for them to resign Cruz.
I am still leaning towards young pitching or outfielders in a Lynn trade scenario. If we could get Gurriel from the Jays, that’d be perfect for LF for us. I’d much rather trade Leclerc and Lynn or Solak and Lynn for Gurriel+ rather than Rosario. Gurriel’s just better age wise and production wise. Then there’s pitching prospects who I would want like Hunter Greene of the Reds, Seth Corry of the Giants, Bryan Abreu of the Astros, and (if we could) Forrest Whitley of the Astros. If we could somehow, someway trade Lynn, Solak, and a reliever for Whitley, I would do it in a heartbeat. His value is down, so maybe that would effect it some too.
Yeah, that makes sense. The fact Stroman and Gausman have the same agent really puts things in perspective. I think Stroman’s market wasn’t as good because he didn’t pitch this year, hence he took the QO. But with Gausman, even in a small sample, he pitched well and there’s more interest.
I still think Gausman stays with the Giants but on a mulit-year deal with a lower AAV than the QO, which is fine. Because if he doesn’t pan out as a starter he could be a closer with his 95+ fastball and split.
I don’t see why it benefits the Giants to extend Gausman. The QO was an acceptable move because it’s a 1-year deal, so no long-term commitment. There’s very little risk to the move for the Giants, aside from just handing Gausman cash.
A long-term deal creates a tremendous amount of risk, especially for a team that is re-tooling like the Giants.
Angels should offer 3/45.
It’s never been a foregone conclusion that Gausman accepts the QO. Because this years draft was stunted there will be a carryover of good talent going into the 2021 MLB draft. I think this could prompt teams to go after players who received the QO and give up a draft pick, knowing there’s plenty of good talent in the later rounds.
Also, Gausman is clearly a different pitcher than he was previously, ala Jake Arrieta. And there are plenty of teams out there looking for good pitching at 2nd tier prices. Finally, this guy probably would take 3/$45M if it’s offered just for future security if it’s offered.
yeah, i dont see the pick being much of a fetter this year given the uncertainty of the draft.
I’m not sure teams would be willing to offer Gausman a 3/$45 deal, that seems steep for a pitcher who has been as inconsistent as he has. He’s probably weighing deals in the 3/36 or 3/39 range for security purposes. If he were to accept the QO for 2021 and struggle, he might not be able to get 2/20 for his next offer. So 3/39 has to be somewhat appealing to him. The real question is, what team is willing to give up its second highest draft pick to sign Kevin Gausman? That’s a pretty steep price if you ask me. MLB needs to get rid of the whole QO process and adopt an NFL style of free agent compensation. Teams shouldn’t be penalized for signing a free agent. Teams that lose too many free agents should get extra draft picks to help them rebuild. It’s really quite simple.
I think 3/36 or 3/39 is about right for him. If he has that offer he should probably take it
I think if it wasn’t for the QO and teams using covid as an excuse to be cheap, someone would do 3/45
Seems a likely candidate to get squeezed by the QO attached to him.
Either way his family should be set for a few generations. Nice situation to be in.
Hard to turn down a higher guaranteed sum, especially as a pitcher.
3/36 should be the tops the Giants offer for a guy who could be mediocre again. The 2020 small sample isn’t much of an evaluation. If he wants more, let him go.
I’m guessing the decent teams that can’t spend like the big boys ?? Brewers , Dbacks , Jays ?
An argument can be made that Tanaka, Morton and Paxton will all have better years than Gausman, who right now is a guy who if he was a free agent a year ago might have been looking at a minor league invite. A hot streak in a shortened season does not mean he’s turned the corner. He’d get a mega contract if he can repeat his 2020 over a full season. If he believes in himself, take the QO. If he has doubts and he has a 3/45 offer? Take it!
The year before last he had a 4.03 ERA. Porcello with the worst ERA in baseball in 2019 got 10 million dollars and Wacha got a contract too but a pitcher coming off a 403 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in your mind would only deserve a minor league invite. Good call
lordd99: “Gausman,…if he was a free agent a year ago might have been looking at a minor league invite.”
What are you talking about? He was a FA a year ago. He signed a major league deal for 1 year/$9M.
Tad, poorly worded on my part. I meant coming off his 5.72 ERA in 2019 that he’d be potentially looking at an invite If he repeated that in 2020. No matter. He made the right choice. Take the $19M and go out and have a good season in 2021 without a QO attached.
Decline the offer and go to a contender.
This guy was almost out of baseball entirely just last year when he was awful. Any GM that gives this guy 3/45 under these conditions after just 10 decent starts should be promptly fired.
With Stroman off the market, I think he bets on himself. I wouldn’t call him the 2nd-best FA pitcher left, but he’s on the right side of 30, so that will help him get an additional year. For the security, I’m guessing he goes for a multi-year deal. Guess we’ll find out soon.
He’s clearly the guy with the most upside after Bauer due to his age and increased performance over the last 2 seasons.
A lot of the free agent class is older and declining. A GM could possibly see Gausman at a high level for a couple of years while the others are likely to decline.
Supposedly he wanted to pitch for the Giants because of Posey. Posey will be back so the Giants should be high on his list. If he doesn’t accept the QO, I would guess he’s going elsewhere given an offer that is probably above his market value. The Angels?
I imagine the only way he wouldn’t accept the QO is if he had something like 3/45 or better on the table. Even that is iffy since it would mean being able to get 2/26 after the QO.
If he takes an offer elsewhere, I wonder who the Giants target next. They’d have to vie for Bauer then.
I think they’re considering Bauer whether Gausman goes elsewhere or not. But, to your point, it would certainly up the urgency to do something like go after Bauer.
If I’m Gausman, I decline the QO now that Stroman has accepted. In my opinion, there are few reliable SP options and many teams looking for them – Economics 101. Someone will overpay.
On another subject, Paxton seems to get a lot of love on multiple sites despite his injury history. He’s great when healthy, but he’s just not healthy. Does Paxton get an incentive laden contract for 2021 with club options for ’22 and/or ’23?