While a frosty winter for most free agents has been the general expectation throughout the industry, there’s also been a belief that the very top names on the market will still be compensated at a rate more commensurate with a typical economic climate. Names like Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer and DJ LeMahieu are widely projected to secure lucrative multi-year deals. Agent Joel Wolfe tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he expects client Marcus Semien to also command a high-dollar contract despite the harsh market conditions.
Wolfe didn’t say he expects a nine-figure deal for the 30-year-old shortstop but did plainly state that Semien’s “pure value in the industry is north of $100MM.” The use of “pure” value at a time when contractual expectations are depressed suggests that the actual target could be somewhat lower. Still, it’s rather eye-opening to see any agent invoke a $100MM price point in any context at this point — particularly for a player coming off a respectable but hardly elite season. I won’t fully rehash Wolfe’s comments for the purposes of this exercise, but Slusser’s interview is well worth a full read-through to get a broader sense of his representation’s thinking.
Semien’s market and contract, admittedly, are among the toughest to gauge among all free agents this offseason. That’s due to a combination of Semien’s pedestrian regular-season numbers, his huge postseason efforts and the fact that he was an elite, MVP-level performer in 2019 — but at no other point in his career. Add in that we simply don’t see solid, everyday shortstops reach free agency often, and it’s all the more difficult because of a lack of precedent.
Outside of Didi Gregorius last year and Zack Cozart a few years back, most quality shortstops have been locked up on contract extensions that buy out their early free-agent years. (It’s fair to wonder whether that would’ve been true of Gregorius, too, had he not required Tommy John surgery post-2018). Each of Andrelton Simmons, Xander Bogaerts, Elvis Andrus, Paul DeJong, Brandon Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Tim Anderson and Jean Segura took earlier paydays rather than a year-to-year arbitration approach, for instance. It may not seem like it at first glance, but Semien’s very presence on the market as an in-his-prime, starting-caliber shortstop is rather atypical.
Given that context, the scattershot nature of predictions for Semien isn’t all that surprising. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted a three-year, $54MM deal, calling Semien a “steady 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player whom a savvy club will find solid value in for two or three years.” At FanGraphs, Craig Edwards predicted a four-year, $64MM deal, pointing to the fact that if you toss out the first two weeks of the season after a shortened ramp-up period, Semien posted a 133 wRC+ (playoffs included). The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him sixth among free agents — between Marcell Ozuna and DJ LeMahieu — noting that he seems capable of handling shortstop for the next several years but calling 2019 a likely outlier season.
Tim Dierkes, Connor Byrne, Jeff Todd and I struggled with what to predict for Semien when we were discussing our annual Top 50 list. I was the most bullish of the bunch on Semien’s prospects, believing that the “one elite season” argument somewhat glosses over the fact that Semien kept his bat elite over the course of an MLB-high 747 plate appearances that year. Weighting that output the same as we’d rate a 500-600 plate appearance sample simply because it fell within the confines of “one season” didn’t sit right. Over Semien’s past 1000 plate appearances — closer to two full seasons than to one — he’s been about 25 percent better than a league-average hitter. For someone capable of playing average or better shortstop defense, that’s immensely valuable, even if there’s some further regression in store.
It’s tough to overlook a .223/.305/.374 slash in 2020, however, and even folding in his massive postseason performance that only jumps to .244/.326/.408. Even as the most bullish member of the MLBTR staff regarding Semien, I had a difficult time picturing more than a three-year deal in the range of $14-15MM annually. We ultimately put down a one-year deal with a return to market next winter, hopefully on the heels of a stronger showing, with the prevailing logic being that any multi-year offers received simply wouldn’t be that exciting relative to Semien’s post-2019 expectations.
The 2021-22 class of shortstops featuring Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Carlos Correa certainly isn’t a welcoming group to join, although as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd rightly pointed out, the huge supply of quality shortstops inherently means there will be considerable demand for replacements — and not every club losing one of those five will be able to meet the asking price to retain them. Therein could lie an opportunity for a strong contract for Semien. That glut of quality options, Wolfe tells Slusser, is “a factor we’d consider but not a guiding factor” in the shortstop’s ultimate decision.
While it’s again worth noting that Wolfe didn’t outright set a $100MM asking price, it still seems likely based on his comments that Semien’s reps at Wasserman have a loftier goal than most pundits expect to be attainable. Wolfe tells Slusser that interest in Semien has already been strong — including an inquiry from a club that already would appear to have a set shortstop. “I just got another call (Wednesday) from a team that said they’d be willing to move their shortstop to another position,” the agent tells Slusser.
Between the A’s, Reds, Phillies and Angels, there are at least four postseason hopefuls who have fairly straightforward openings at shortstop. Other clubs like the Yankees, Mets, Twins and Blue Jays could certainly shuffle their infield mix if they believe Semien represents a potential value purchase in a depressed market with a historically good 2021-22 shortstop class looming.
Wolfe’s comments to Slusser exude some confidence that Semien will eventually land a strong multi-year commitment, but there may not be a position player with a broader range of plausible outcomes on this year’s free-agent market.
3 yrs/$45M with CIN
Lol how what do you think NOW?
Lol what do you think NOW?
I hope a lot of people put their predictions here so we can go back to this when a deal happens and see if we were right. Here’s mine: 3 years 42 mil with CLE.
I’ll second that.
But Cleveland ownership has no money…
The Dolan family is one of the top 100 wealthiest families in the US. They have plenty of money.
They certainly have plenty of money, but the last few years they’ve acted like they’re going broke.
There’s a surplus of shortstops this year and next. That has more to do w market than covid impact. Why settle for Semien when there’s a 1/2 dozen better options this offseason and next ??
I’m in !
Oak 2/30
Never. The Tribe won’t give that kinda money to ANY free agent. They’ll troll the waiver wire for a replacement level stop-gap before they pay anyone more than $10M for a contract of any length.
I think Semien screams one-year wonder. That being said, some team will pay him pretty well because of how recent that one great year was.
$13MM to $15MM per year sounds about right.
$30MM/3yr.
2019 was a clear fluke, but without it he might not even get multi-year offers as he’s been a thoroughly meh player the other 6 years of his career. Something as low as $18MM/2yr wouldn’t surprise me for Marcus “Jose Iglesias plus a career year” Semien, but I think someone bites on that 3rd year hoping he remembers how to hit.
@ explodet
No disrespect but you clearly don’t watch Semien every day. Semien has improved from a complete defensive liability to an excellent shortstop – I wouldn’t say elite – but excellent is fair. He has put in a shedload of work, (and I think UZR and all the other acronyms) probably support that.
I’m gutted that he won’t be an Athletic next season, and I think the vast majority of As fans would agree.
He’s essentially the same player as Jose Iglesias (Iglesias is a better defender, Semien is a slightly better hitter), and Iglesias got a pair of 1 year, $2.5MM contracts as a free agent. It’s cool that you like the guy, but the only reason the possibility of a multi-year contract is even being floated for Semien is the fingers-crossed hope that 2019 wasn’t a total fluke.
I’m not sure I like the comparison to Iglesias… I understand the financial comp but play wise… Iglesias is (or at least was when he was younger) one of the best defensive SS’s in baseball. And his offense was just seen as a “bonus” (though he did actually surprise a lot of people by how high his batting averages were a few seasons) whereas Semien… to me anyway… is really more of a ‘bat-first’ player… granted he has managed to turn around his atrocious defense during the start of his career into above-average or even better defense now… I still think the comp between Iglesias and Semien is too far apart to really use. Though I do certainly understand your financial implications/logic behind it — and do somewhat agree on that point. In the sense that for whatever reason Semien is going to be paid like a “star” whereas Iglesias has been paid as kind of a ‘journeyman’ and their overall value-added to their respective teams are probably more or less the same.
Since the start of the 2018 season Jose Iglesias has posted 5.6 fWAR in 310 games while Marcus Semien has posted 12.6 fWAR 394 games.
Even subtracting his stellar 2019 numbers from that total Semein posted 5.0 fWAR in only 212 games.
Jose Iglesias is no Marcus Semien.
I think Simmons is a better comp to Semien.
Clearly Semien has more power potential in his bat but it’s not enough, IMO, to offset the poor on base percentage and high strike out rate. If he was a lock for 30 home runs and a .360 on base, sure you can live with 130 strike outs a year but he is more likely to give you first three year Addison Russell production than Lindor.
Based on his potential, 15 million AAV isn’t out of the question but I think he ends up back in Oakland with a 3/30 with a 4th year team option at 15. If his agent is smart, he should work an opt out after two, this year the pennies will be pinched and next year he would be stuck going head to head at the moment with the most impressive free agent class at short stop we’ve ever seen.
Excellent.
An A’s fan (in London even!).
I’ve a question for you. I read somewhere (sorry, can’t recall where) that a lot of his defensive shortcomings were masked due to Chapman being on his right.
So… do you think there is anything to that? If you do see this & get back then thank you.
Afternoon Ducky,
I’ve got to be honest, having Matt Chapman on one side is going be beneficial to any SS in the game. But he (Semien) hasn’t had a lot of help at 2nd since Jed Lowrie headed for the Mets. (Mets fans look away now)…. A mix of Machin, Barreto, Mateo, Tony Kemp, Jurickson Profar, Chad Pinder, Lord Percy Winthrope & Mother Teresa hasn’t helped either. And agreed Matt Olsen at 1st is pretty darn good too.
Initially I’d agree because Semien was playing one man soccer at SS. But now he’s really good – not elite – but really good. His footwork has improved dramatically and his back hand defence too. It’s noticeable (an A’s fan would notice) that Chapman – who plays really deep at 3rd anyway because he backs his arm compulsively – now generally plays closer to the foul line but even deeper. Chapman’s improvement mirrors Semien’s. Not a lot of people will agree with that.
And I wouldn’t worry too much about strike out rate. He’s leading off, so the option of grounding out to move a runner along is less prevalent. I’d rather my lead off strike out after 7 pitches than grind out after 3…
@drasco above makes a couple of really good points above most notably that he’d be wise to swing a 3/4 year deal prior to next years class. I’d be guessing 30-40m over 3 years, 40-50m over 4 years.
I wish him the best, he always comes across as a good guy, he’s a bay area native, and I’d really like him to stay with the A’s. I’m also realistic that pennies are always tight with the A’s (or at least have been since about 1998), and probably are tighter right now.
@ zach (above and below) – I wouldn’t go as far as to say something was bollocks (but love your use of the English vernacular – thank you) but I would say Semien would be an upgrade on most (not ALL) SS out there. Yes, he’s helped by the two Matts, at 3B & 1B, but who wouldn’t be???
Thank you so much for taking the time to post such a detailed & nuanced reply.
Lotta great stuff here, man.
Some of these choices must just be so nerve wracking for GM’s to make. I went from curious about him, to not wanting him at all, to now thinking “jeeez, this guy might be the answer” lol.
As an aside, I lived in Bump City for a couple years. Saw plenty of A’s & some Raiders games when I did.
Amazing fans. Still doesn’t seem right to see the Raiders in Vegas.
Cheers Ducky,
Coming across as you do as a nice Yanks fan what’s gonna get you across that bump and another WS win?
One of the perpetual problems about bulletin boards is that we’re always stuck to the subject line (here it’s Marcus Semien, there it’s Tony La Russa and his erratic driving skills) and we don’t get the chance for generalised chat…
The point you make about GMs is valid but I think Semien is one of those that is confounding – the two Matts (Chapman and Olsen) are compelling defenders. You “might” be able to stick my Auntie Marjorie at SS and with her fierce looks she’d fit in sweetly.
Other posters made the point that Semien might produce better down the batting order but this ignores the fact that Bob Melvin is utterly committed to his decision making and utterly loyal to those involved. This – for me – is another overlooked point. If Bob Melvin believes in you – you will – and you better had – perform. He is a brilliant manager – he has dragged performances out of players who previously struggled to believe in themselves.
I’ll throw Liam Hendricks in there (DFA’ed two years ago) and ironically also a FA alongside Marcus Semien.)) – the one lovely thing about my A’s team is that they’ll always look for reclamation projects – largely because they have to given the ownership’s parsimony.
Anyway, I’ve gotta rock up at work at 6am tomorrow so have to cuddle up to lady European wife and sleep. (Intriguingly baseball is the only sport she’ll put up with because the fans are nice and when we visit the USA we’re always made incredibly welcome).I played cricket semi seriously for three years and she prefers baseball. Enough said!
And cheers to you as well!
Your last couple posts have covered a lot of territory. And, *all* baseball. God love ya.
I have my moments.
Man.
The Yanks. I think that this is kind of a whole new “era” of Yankee baseball. It looks like they’re trying to be the Dodgers East.
Ya know?
I’m not entirely sure how committed ownership is to bouncing over that hump. The importance is now placed on simply *getting* to the postseason.
I’d best tread lightly here. As an A’s fan I don’t expect a whole lot of empathy. That being said, it’s a different mind set & a lot of Yankee fans are struggling to adjust.
Pitching in the end is the short answer. Gotta plug that middle infield opening & add pitching. Bullpen & rotation.
Man, I don’t mind. I frequently wander off topic. & it’s not like anyone else is even here.
Going back to the A’s infield corners…yeah, those two would certainly help prop up *any* SS in baseball. Yesterday I contemplated adding Simmons to that infield. Today I’ve doubled down. Meaning, I’d love to see Oakland sign Simmons & Wong.
Mercy.
That’d be worth the price of admission, uh?
Always thought Melvin was an excellent manager. I’m a “you gotta dance with the girl that brung ya” kinda fella myself. If those are the guys that got you there, well damnit, that’s who I’m going to play, too.
I don’t have a problem with that.
Looks like Melvin’s players respond to that also.
Hendricks. Man. His performance in the playoffs was some of the best theatre I’ve ever seen. Dude was spent. But he’s out there still running it up, wild as hell, screaming to/at himself, circling the mound to get himself ready to set, rock, & fire; Just One More Time.
Fecking beautiful, man. Just beautiful.
Fake season my behind.
When I was in college a bunch of the Indian students would do a cricket batting practice in the commons every Friday. Of course, I had to take a few rips myself. (They were using something I think they called a “sponge ball”?)
Well, be good to your girl, have a great night, & I’ll keep my eyes open for you here.
Morning Ducky
I think fan expectation for the Yanks is that if they DON’T reach deep into the play-offs then the season is a failure. Division titles are an expectation and when you’ve got your division rivals (sadly discounting the Orioles right now) a division title is still a real achievement.
Mookie – excellent in the post season – got them Doyers over the hump. I wonder (and I like Gary Sanchez – I often feel he’s blamed for every ill) if JT Realmuto might be that Mookie piece. I appreciate the rotation will need attention but truly great catchers are priceless because the position is so mentally & physically demanding. A great catcher can make an average pitcher look very good indeed….
As you say it’s a different mindset to the A’s and yes the pitching side of it needs attention (and I don’t know much about the Yankees farm and what might come through in the next couple of years) but I feel Realmuto is almost too good an opportunity to miss.
I’m a little more hopeful than I was about re-signing Marcus Semien but the idea of the two Matts and Simmons and Kolten Wong (and why is he so under-rated?) is mouthwatering.
Rumour has it that Billy Beane might be leaving for an offshoot of the Fenway Sports Group & I wonder if Bob Melvin would want to stay with the A’s if that were to happen – he’s contracted through 2022 – and might too look for pastures new.
Hendricks is a typical Aussie – never ever beaten. I love that attitude. I do remember Judge & someone else taking him back to back in a game we should never have lost in 2019. I think he’ll land a recent decent deal (not quite Melancon money but 3/45, or in that region.
Until I first visited the US in 2012 I always saw baseball as simple cricket. Not simple in a derogatory way, but one bat, one ball, simple as. What did your Indian friends make of baseball?
I’m a fan as a result of reading Moneyball, and from then have been a voracious reader of anything baseball largely because it’s a social history of the US alongside a sport. I started with Ken Burns documentary and then went onto the Negro Leagues, Jackie Robinson, Satchel Page and the Bronx Bombers of the 1950’s – the Cardinals in the 60’s, the great Detroit story of 1968…. then back to Shoeless Joe who was (in my humble) wronged & innocent.
A couple of Yankees questions:
Why isn’t Roger Maris in the hall? On my next trip stateside I want to go to North (or South Dakota – I’d better get this right before travelling!!!!) because I want to visit his museum in Fargo. His story brought me close to tears.
Why does Michael Judge divide opinion so much? I think he’s a top bloke, a top player and he smashes himself to bits in the outfield. DH is for players like him to have a bit of a breather but with Stanton so fragile he never gets the chance.
Thank you for the kind regards to my lady wife. I’m blessed – she’s one in a million.
Have a great weekend
Good morning to you, @A’sfaninLondonUK.
This reminds me of when I was a kid and I had an overseas penpal. No idea how old you are. You may – or may not – recall penpals.
To be honest, I viewed Gerrit Cole as that “final piece”.
D’accord on the importance & ability of a good catcher being invaluable to a pitcher. Realmuto is without a doubt the top C in MLB. You’re correct. Sanchez takes a hammering from Yankee fans.
He certainly has some blemishes. But he’s not nearly as big of a problem as a lot of Yankee fans claim. I’ve posted a couple things about him more than once.
First, 2020 was his only season (according to fangraphs) that he received a negative grade for his defense. He’s never been a Gold Glove type. But he has a history of being above average. This is a far cry from being “bad”. Secondly, his bat needs to be acknowledged. The young man was the fastest catcher in the history of the game to reach 100 HR’s. All the way back (ahem) in 2019 he slammed 34 jacks & posted an OPS of .841.
Those are good numbers.
Now I can see paths to improvement for the Yankees that don’t include Sanchez. But he’s not going to be all that easy to replace. JTR is certainly an upgrade. But how much of one?
In the end, I’d be very surprised to see the Yanks make any changes at catcher. We’ll see. Just my take.
So there’s that.
I can definitely see a scenario where the music stops & Semien doesn’t have a chair. (Referencing an American children’s game called “musical chairs”.) He may have to scramble to find a deal late in the off-season. As you’ve noted that’s kind of an A’s thing. He’d be one of their “reclamation projects”.
Forgot he was an Aussie. Guys got guts. Watching him throw on nothing more than heart & adrenaline was just so much fun, man! He should get paid. I grew up in the Bronx, but I live in Minneapolis. I remember Hendricks when he was here. He wasn’t very good. A’s did a great job with him.
I hope the man gets paid.
He’s earned it.
“Friends” might be overselling it a bit. 🙂
For one, I’m 6’4″. I sorta towered over those fellas. But, when we *did* talk baseball they weren’t overly impressed lol. Talked about how the pitcher “just floats the ball up there”. I didn’t really know what they were getting at untill I saw some actual Cricket being played.
What a crazy intro to the sport. Pretty cool, man. It certainly is a social history. After I served my tours (UN Peacekeeping. Met some Brits, too) I spent some time just kinda drifting around America. Found myself at Shoeless Joe’s grave one time. Left a pair of Air Jordans on his grave. Seemed fitting. Have you read “Eight Men Out”? It’s the story of Shoeless Joe & the Black Sox. If you are interested in baseball history I’d highly recommend it.
Maris had a really short peak. He just really didn’t have the overall body of work.
I’m pretty passionate about grouse & hare shooting, & waterfowl hunting. As I mentioned, I live in Minneapolis. But I take numerous trips to North Dakota & usually one to South Dakota every year. Relax. They’re right by each other. Btw, Maris was actually born in MN. Grew up across the border.
Not sure why MN hasn’t fought harder to be recognized as the birthplace of Roger Maris. But, North Dakota has so little to work with, it’s fine with me if they want to claim him. And Fargo is right across the border anyway (an area I hunt Sandhill Cranes and Tundra Swan).
If you are in the Midwest and doing a baseball trip I’d add the Negro League Baseball Museum in Kansas City. KC is a bit underrated. But that Museum is extremely important. Not to mention really interesting if you are interested in baseball & history. I’d also say Wrigley Field in Chicago is a truly wonderful place to watch a game. Remarkably, I was able to see Bonds hit…#’s 71 & 72 there (I think? Two past 70 anyway…been a while). Long story. Pretty much just got lucky. But it’s a great park, great fans, great city, & an all around fun soaked environment.
Yankee fans are…demanding. Judge is a fantastic player. It really bothers me all the flack he’s been getting lately. Yankee fans seem to think that there is always someone better.
The main knock on him has been staying healthy. I get it. It’s been uneven for him in those regards.
I’ve told this story before. I saw Mike Trout play at the park, so far, just once. He went 0-4. He drew a walk, but was erased trying to nab second. No spectacular plays in CF. My point is that baseball is hard, man. No player is perfect.
I didn’t do all that well with marriage. Which is far more about me and my shortcomings then it was about my ex-wives. Indeed I’m actually a single parent. But I do know that if you are fortunate enough to have found a good one, then hold fast to her.
Sounds like you realize that’s important.
Man, you have yourself a great weekend, too. Thanks for just talking some baseball, man. I’ll catch you around.
That’s bollocks. Semien’s “hardwork” didn’t return any dividends. Matt Olson and Matt Chapman showing up is the only reason Semien’s defensive metrics improved. The A’s even brought Ron Washington back and that didn’t make any improvement for Semien.
Olson helped a lot because he over threw the other 1B.
A’s fan here. That’s not right, Zach. Before Washington came on in 2015, Semien could not make a routine play, he’d either bobble it or throw wildly. Washington made a huge difference in his footwork and getting him to relax his hands.
That said, he’s not a great fielder., he can’t go to his right, but it doesn’t much matter with Chapman at third. He’s fine to his left, and Olson can catch just about anything at first. Other teams without elite 3B and 1B may have problems with him.;
@zachary, @arc89, & @baycommuter.
Thanks for the insight, fellas. I’d somehow forgot about Olson. He’s fantastic. Man, wouldn’t it be awesome if the A’s signed Simmons.
Mercy.
That infield could stop laser beams, man.
The club I root for is…um, a bit challenged defensively. They also need a middle infielder. I like his offensive profile; some power, can run, doesn’t K a whole lot.
But overall, I’m just not sure he’d be the best fit.
baycommuter, Washington had no effect on Semien. Please stop putting some religious ideology on Washington. Semien has limited range whether it’s to the left or right. Semien’s issue is that he can’t catch and throw in a fluid movement. He double clutches his throws and when hurried misses the target at 1B.
@zach – you know that Washington had zero effect on Semien? Were you on the field during practice? I would love to hear your TED talk on teaching baseball players.
LAA: 4 years 60 mill
I’d be really surprised if someone didn’t take a big gamble on him.
With some of the best shortstops in the league likely to hit free agency after 2021 and the perception that Semien is under rated I don’t see him getting anywhere close to 100 mil.
3yr/$39m Mets
Mets dont need a SS that much
Their SS they signed was injured his whole contract. This would be a definite upgrade.
We have Gimenez. (and Rosario). Don’t need Semien. If you’re referring to Lowrie, he’s not a SS. Mets not going for Semien.
I think the strength of the other SS options hurts him. if he had another great year in 2020 he could have seperated from the pack.
How many of Seager/Correa/Baez/Story/Lindor will actually hit the FA market next year and how many get extended before then? I think there is a good chance that the Dodgers, Astros, and Cubs all extend their shortstops, and depending on who Lindor gets traded to, and extension could be had for Lindor, too. What the Rockies will do is anybody’s guess.
All that. is to say, I don’t think the 2021 FA shortstop class is something that Semian needs to worry that much about.
I’ll go super bullish: 3 years, $70 million to play 3b for the Mets.
To displace whom? Smith? If there’s a DH, he supplants only Davis, I guess. Doesn’t seem prudent. Smith is better. If there’s a DH, maybe, but I doubt it.
1 yr 20 million. 3b for Atlanta.
Phillies, 4 years/$110M. And I have a bridge in Oakland that I can sell you too…..
Semien is a great clubhouse leader and Oakland will surely miss that next year. He is a good defender, but its only been 2 years since he had the yips and needed help (Thanks Ron Washington!!) and his bat is cold and hot. I think the A’s did him a disservice batting in the leadoff role the last year, he’s a #6 batter and could have done better there….
Yeah, Laureano LaStella Chapman Olson Canha Semien was the best way to do the lineup.
Because you are in the clubhouse on a regular basis and know that he’s a “leader”? Last year was Semien’s only year with an OPS+ over 100 (135) and he was a finalist for the MVP award…but you think the A’s did him a disservice by batting him lead off. Okay, I look forward to your TED talk about how masks are useless and washing your hands folly during the current pandemic.
@zach – you don’t have to be in the clubhouse to know Semien was a leader…just read the interviews that several of his teammates made. That’s what I based my comment on. Semien was a MVP 2019 finalist, and no where near that performance level in 2020. Melvin has a tendency to stick with what was working before and doesn’t change until the player is batting .097 (Khris Davis?). Ill send you some citations on the articles that echo my opinion so you don’t have to make another idiotic comparison to hand washing.
Please Milwaukee make a move and get a good shortstop.
I actually kind of like Semien and hope he plays well next year BUT I’m kind of afraid that 2019 was just an outlier and he’s really not much more than an average SS. If I were the GM of a team if be weary of signing him… really at any cost (obviously not literally any cost — but at the price ranges he’s going to sign for this off-season I mean). There’s also the possibility that 2019 was legit and 2020 was just a bad year because of how messed up everything was due to Covid. In that case a team could wind up with an MPV caliber player for something like $15M AAV. That of course would be a HUGE bargain for the signing team. But like I said, if I were a GM I think I’d stay away — though as a fan I hope he really does hit like he did in 2019 because if so he’ll be a fun player to watch!
My prediction is that he goes to the Angels for 3 years at $35 million.
The next Zack Cozart?
I think Semien is better than Zack Cozart, but yeah I do think he’s going to get a similar contract. Signing Semien would fix the Angels’ hole at shortstop, and allow them to focus on their bullpen and starting rotation.
Yea, Semien is better. But both players getting similar contracts based on outlier seasons… didn’t work with Cozart. Semien probably is a better bet, though.
Yeah, the Angels probably want to get that Cozart contract back. However, Cozart was a bad player who had a career year right by before he became a free agent. Semien has been an average shortstop for most of his career, and he has one year where he was awesome. There is less risk involved in signing Semien.
No way this dude wins the mvp playing 162 games lol
No, you’re right. He only came 3rd in 2019.
Playing 162 regular season games.
4/60 Anaheim Simmons replaces in Oakland.
4/72
He screams disappointment to me. 2 years $25 million and they will probably still think that the contract was a mistake at the end of it.
“It may not seem like it at first glance, but Semien’s very presence on the market as an in-his-prime, starting-caliber shortstop is rather atypical.
The 2021-22 class of shortstops featuring Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Carlos Correa certainly isn’t a welcoming group to join“
I don’t understand how these sentences are a paragraph apart. They literally negate each other. The first sentence has eight examples and the 2nd one has five. They are a year apart in free agency. I’m not one to complain, but the statement in the first sentence is just too strong. Clearly there were just two agent thought processes 3-6 years ago
I think Seimien hits a rough market. Could be the 2020 guy who outprices himself out of his market and gets stuck out there. We’ve seen it multiple times in last 3 years. We’ll see
4/70don’t know who will be that dumb but someone will
A’s were dumb not offer him QO.. going to be similar to not offering trienen arb
Really…the only reason a team would offer a player a QO is if they are certain another team will sign the player. The QO amount for a single season would be 20-25% more than what Semien would get in a multi year deal so he would not sign. The A’s would be stuck overpaying Semien by $8-12 Million and not get draft pick compensation. Too bad the Angels didn’t have a chance to interview you for the GM position. It would have been great having you lead a team in the AL West against the A’s.
@ zach – when was your interview with the Angles?
They couldn’t afford me.
@zach The Angels can afford you, it’s the A’s who can’t.
I could see him getting a 3 year deal worth $42-48M or finding someone to go 4 years and around $56-60M.
If you’re getting a season of 2019 Semien, that more than makes the deal worth it.
Where’s the poll….?
I see a 3 Year/45Mil for Miami
I’m late to this, but I think he resigns with Oakland for 3yrs/42MM.