Mark, if Bader and O’Neil leave a lot to be desired for the Cardinals, why would Cleveland want them? Cleveland already has three good defensive CF.. They do not need more OF that can’t hit.
So you’d be ok with NYM signing him and playing against him and Sixto Sanchez (in the division with MIA) as long as PHI gets a comp pick when he rejects the QO?
@RunDMC well I’m not a fan of any NL East team so that wouldn’t matter to me. But that’s not what I said. I said that signing him won’t make the trade look better. Saying “They have to sign him at all costs because they traded Sixto for his last two arb years” is called a sunk cost fallacy.
Interesting, I guess it falls under the don’t cut off your nose to spite your face saying. Just seems like a massive missed opp to allow him to walk unless they are looking a near-signing.
You’re missing his point. The trade was for two years of Realmuto, and if they could negotiate an extension with him, good for them. The extension was never a sure thing, though, and it was always a gamble in the hopes that they’d be able to retain his services. They got what they paid for in those two years.
If they really feel pressure to resign him, it should be because they need to fill a hole, not because they paid a ton for him and are trying to flail about to justify that cost beyond what they were assured of.
In essence, the only way to loop an extension with a trade is if specific negotiating windows are granted+contract comes of it. Sonny Gray, arod to Boston. Not many of them recently
Betts is another example of the potential fallacy. Verdugo, Downs and wong didn’t get the Dodgers 12 years of Mookie. It got them one year, and they negotiated an extension after
@Laughing@You Exactly! John Middleton said himself that he wasn’t comfortable giving Sanchez up for Realmuto unless they extended him. He should have told Klentak not to make that trade unless they got an extension as part of the trade, like Sonny Gray to the Reds.
On Mookie Betts, you could make an argument that he would have signed with LA if they hadn’t traded for him first, but seeing as they won the 2020 World Series and Betts was their best player during the regular season and probably second to Corey Seager during the postseason, they probably still make the trade even if they aren’t able to extend him.
I’m mostly amazed that trading for a player is talked about in terms of ‘it’s a failure if they don’t resign him’. You should judge the trade independently. That said- signing the player longterm by a team that aquires a player seems to more than I’d expect. Goldy is a good example- who would predict he would sign in St Lois longterm. Maybe there’s a case to be made that the acquiring team gets comfortable enough to make the best offer or close enough.
I’m watching the JTR market to see if Phil falls into the trap of over paying (especially number of years) for him in order to justify the trade. No one should be paying him 5 /$125MM
If they aren’t comfortable making the best offer without getting him in house first that doesn’t mean they couldn’t sign him. It means they simply chose not to. There’s a difference. The only way to justify the trade at this point is if Realmuto verifiably leaves at least $63.6m on the table to stay in Philly. That is Sixto’s surplus value according to Baseball Trade Values.
I get what both sides are saying. JTR is definitely a sunk cost. But not all GMs see it that way.. It’s not logical, but GMs don’t want to be seen as being fleeced, even if they get what they want.
That said, however, Klentak is gone. No GM is going to want to save face for the previous GM.
Much like Bloom and Betts, Betts is just another commodity with which to use to build the future RS teams.
Klentak already is seen as being fleeced in the Realmuto trade. Paying him top dollar to stay won’t change that. And as you mentioned, he’s no longer the Phillies GM in the first place.
Mark, if Bader and O’Neil leave a lot to be desired for the Cardinals, why would Cleveland want them? Cleveland already has three good defensive CF.. They do not need more OF that can’t hit.
Either team could benefit from signing Stilts! 😉
“They’re under specific pressure to re-sign Realmuto given the big price they paid to acquire him from the Marlins.”
The trade is a sunk cost. He’s just another free agent. Him signing with Philly won’t make the trade look any better or worse.
So you’d be ok with NYM signing him and playing against him and Sixto Sanchez (in the division with MIA) as long as PHI gets a comp pick when he rejects the QO?
@RunDMC well I’m not a fan of any NL East team so that wouldn’t matter to me. But that’s not what I said. I said that signing him won’t make the trade look better. Saying “They have to sign him at all costs because they traded Sixto for his last two arb years” is called a sunk cost fallacy.
Interesting, I guess it falls under the don’t cut off your nose to spite your face saying. Just seems like a massive missed opp to allow him to walk unless they are looking a near-signing.
You’re missing his point. The trade was for two years of Realmuto, and if they could negotiate an extension with him, good for them. The extension was never a sure thing, though, and it was always a gamble in the hopes that they’d be able to retain his services. They got what they paid for in those two years.
If they really feel pressure to resign him, it should be because they need to fill a hole, not because they paid a ton for him and are trying to flail about to justify that cost beyond what they were assured of.
@casualatlfan I’m just gonna call you the hammer from now on because you nailed it.
@RunDMC Not really. They didn’t have to trade for him to have the opportunity to sign him.
In essence, the only way to loop an extension with a trade is if specific negotiating windows are granted+contract comes of it. Sonny Gray, arod to Boston. Not many of them recently
Betts is another example of the potential fallacy. Verdugo, Downs and wong didn’t get the Dodgers 12 years of Mookie. It got them one year, and they negotiated an extension after
@Laughing@You Exactly! John Middleton said himself that he wasn’t comfortable giving Sanchez up for Realmuto unless they extended him. He should have told Klentak not to make that trade unless they got an extension as part of the trade, like Sonny Gray to the Reds.
On Mookie Betts, you could make an argument that he would have signed with LA if they hadn’t traded for him first, but seeing as they won the 2020 World Series and Betts was their best player during the regular season and probably second to Corey Seager during the postseason, they probably still make the trade even if they aren’t able to extend him.
If you sign him when you have exclusive negotiating rights then it counts.
I’m mostly amazed that trading for a player is talked about in terms of ‘it’s a failure if they don’t resign him’. You should judge the trade independently. That said- signing the player longterm by a team that aquires a player seems to more than I’d expect. Goldy is a good example- who would predict he would sign in St Lois longterm. Maybe there’s a case to be made that the acquiring team gets comfortable enough to make the best offer or close enough.
I’m watching the JTR market to see if Phil falls into the trap of over paying (especially number of years) for him in order to justify the trade. No one should be paying him 5 /$125MM
If they aren’t comfortable making the best offer without getting him in house first that doesn’t mean they couldn’t sign him. It means they simply chose not to. There’s a difference. The only way to justify the trade at this point is if Realmuto verifiably leaves at least $63.6m on the table to stay in Philly. That is Sixto’s surplus value according to Baseball Trade Values.
I get what both sides are saying. JTR is definitely a sunk cost. But not all GMs see it that way.. It’s not logical, but GMs don’t want to be seen as being fleeced, even if they get what they want.
That said, however, Klentak is gone. No GM is going to want to save face for the previous GM.
Much like Bloom and Betts, Betts is just another commodity with which to use to build the future RS teams.
Klentak already is seen as being fleeced in the Realmuto trade. Paying him top dollar to stay won’t change that. And as you mentioned, he’s no longer the Phillies GM in the first place.
Question
Should GAUSMAN get his QO
Or reject
Well he already got his QO. He should now accept said QO.
Should we remove pitcher wins from the record books?
Durrr
what purpose would that serve?
8:07 where is shabadoo from? It’s not fake I remember it just not where.