There are few players more likely to be traded this winter than Joe Musgrove. After putting up the league’s worst record, the Pirates are clearly not in position to immediately contend. That means GM Ben Cherington and the rest of the Pittsburgh front office are likely to be open to offers for most of their veteran players.
It’s not a good time for the Pirates to try to move most of those players, though. Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier and Josh Bell all struggled to varying degrees in 2020. Trading any of that trio would be selling low; indeed, the Pirates are expected to first try to work out an extension with Bell this offseason. Unlike most of the Pittsburgh roster, Musgrove is coming off a strong season. He tossed 39.2 innings of 3.86 ERA/3.42 FIP ball. More impressively, Musgrove punched out 33.1% of opposing hitters, a stark improvement over his previous career marks.
Musgrove’s jump in strikeouts and whiffs might be a bit of small sample blip, especially since a brief IL stint for triceps inflammation limited him to eight starts, but he’d carved out a role as a solid mid-rotation starter over the prior couple seasons. Since joining the Pirates in advance of the 2018 season, Musgrove has thrown 325.1 innings with a 4.23 ERA and solid strikeout (22.8%) and walk (5.7%) rates. That level of production would appeal to a number of pitching-needy teams.
In an offseason when many teams are expected to cut payroll, Musgrove would also represent a more affordable addition than many of the options available in free agency. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Musgrove to bring in an amount in the $3.2MM-$4.4MM range via arbitration. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more next winter before reaching free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.
The Blue Jays and Pirates reportedly got close to a deal involving Musgrove during the season. It’s possible Toronto revisits those talks again, although they subsequently acquired Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling, both of whom remain in the fold. Virtually any team looking to contend in the short-term could try to strengthen their rotations by exploring a Musgrove deal. The A’s, Angels, Braves, Phillies and Yankees are among a host of teams who might fit the bill. There hasn’t been any movement on the Musgrove front to this point, but his name figures to be bandied about quite a bit in the coming months.
I’d like to see him back with the Astros.
Me too!
I love him to the Phillies. I really think he has more to offer. I think he can be even better
id certainly take a look as long as PIT doesnt ask for an unreasonably large haul.
The Pirates will end up trading him to the Angels for a light-hitting minor league shortstop and a steak dinner for Bob Nutting.
Will they?
I’d love that.
It would be nice for the Angels to win a trade for a change
Forget about Dylan Bundy already?
The Angels getting Musgrove or the steak dinner for Nutting?
Would Pittsburgh consider packing him with Greg Polanco and offset some prospect return for salary relief? I believe Polanco is owed $14m ($11m for ’21 & $3m buyout for ’22) and struggled terribly in 2020 but a team like the Halos may be willing to take on salary to keep the farm intact.
intact as in keep it barren?
Barren? I think that’s a stretch. Fangraphs ranks the Bucs with the fourth best farm system in baseball. They have six, top 100 prospects and are have a handful of other talented players that don’t get nearly as much credit as they do.
i wouldnt call anyone besides Gonzalez, Hayes, (who is almost off the list and wolnt be traded anyway) and maybe Cruz and or Malone. 6 is unreasonable.
I believe he was meaning the halos farm system as barren. The bucs have a good farm system the angels, not so much.
A lot of people really overlook Tahnaj Thomas and Liover Peguero. Both look like very talented players. Travis Swaggerty Is a top notch defender who put up a 120 WRC+ in 2019.
He was referring to the Angel’s farm system.
You better research some more ! They have some good young arms.
@1225- Just looked at Pirate prospects on pipeline and it has the Pirates at 3 top 100 prospects. I know there are others who rank prospects: BA, Prospectus, fangraphs and a few others, but in my experience they aren’t usually THAT far apart.
Personally, I’ve heard that Fangraphs’ success rates are higher than other sources. I know it’s a handful more, but I really feel that many underrate guys like Thomas, Peguero and Swaggerty. Peguero is an extremely athletic shortstop with a 60 future hit tool and averaged 90 MPH off the bat. Swaggerty has 60 future grades for his arm and fielding tools. He’s fast and put up a 120 wRC+ in 2019. I’ll easily take Gold Glove defense with that kind of offensive production. Thomas has a 70 grade fastball that can touch 100 MPH frequently. He has wipeout breaking pitches and a developing change-up.
I think that the Pirates have had a decent minor league production,and it seems that it is reasonably good now.
The problem is for a small market team to be competitive for the playoffs on a mostly consistent basis it needs to be at least very good and producing quality major league players.
One of the big things Cherington has done since taking over the front office has been a new focus on player development. He recently moved Larry Broadway out of the role of farm director, as well as making a handful of other smaller moves in scouting, development and coordination.
He is talking about the Angels system. Ranked 26th. Marsh, Adams, and Detmers only big time prospects. Adell and Jones graduated in 2020 so they no longer count as prospects.
Swaggerty’s big question was the power. All reports out of Altoona n the alternative site is he is driving the ball now. Swaggerty is a plus defender with plus speed. He should hit for a solid average and take advantage of PNC. But what is keeping him from “elite” is the power, power that MAY BE developing. I am excited to see if that’s real or just hype next year as I suspect Swaggerty may be in AA if he plays well in spring. He has pretty much everything else you want, the power is the big thing.
I’m not really worried too much about the power. He should be their leadoff man in a couple of seasons. He hits for a solid average, walks at a decent rate and can steal bases. Any power they can get out of him is icing on the cake.
I mean they have to spend payroll on something, I don’t think he’s hurting them at all now, but he’ s still not very good.
They should be taking on bad contracts for prospects, they are capable of doing so.
Not a bad idea. The Angels have 2 good chips in Adell and Marsh. After that it’s guys much further off.
There’s just so much dead movies at already on the payroll between Pujols and Upton.
The Pirates continue forward as a 4A baseball program. When have they ever really tried to be competitive? Bring players up from the minors, fit them up a little bit and then when they get expensive, trade them off.
Early 90’s are last time I remember the Pirates being competitive.
Really? Because with Cole & Chutch they won 90 games went to the postseason 3 years in a row.
Yeah, they’ve been really bad for the most part since ’93, but that recent run (2014-16, IIRC) was definitely competitive.
13 14 15 ? You must be Braves fan.
4F baseball program
Pirates fans, what are the big needs for the organization? Who do you see as the best matches?
Ownership
From the bits you can get from the new front office I would say they want quality over quantity and no real focus on organizational need. Get more talent and then sort out the pieces later. So I would say any contending team with a good farm system – Braves, Twins? To your previous question, they also haven’t sounded like they would reduce the return to offload a contract although the cheapness of their owner as already mentioned here several times will always make me worry about that.
I’d also think the Jays are a potential landing spot for Musgrove. Have a decent farm system and the need for another starter. Roark and Ray aren’t exactly pieces you’d like to rely on, even if you have a good bullpen.
I mean for what there getting paid I’m very sure they would like to rely on either… lol
The other Jays advantage is Cherington’s knowledge of the system in a year where it’s difficult to get a full picture of the prospect landscape. I’m a Jays fan and would rather see Musgrove than either Roark or Ray.
They really need power. Cruz and Mason Martin are the only guys I would classify as elite power threats within the next 3 seasons. If they can get back a guy with 60 future raw/game power grades with a hit tool in the 45-50 grade range for Musgrove and maybe with Fraizer or Rich-Rod thrown in, that would be outstanding.
Could they get Larnach from the Twins? He is a Power hitting outfielder and Twins seem to be deep in Major and top minor league outfielders. I’m game for throwing in RichRod to any team to increase the return. He may be one of a few Pirates who are actually at peak value (not that he is a star or anything).
Pirates fans, what are the big needs for the organization?
———————————————————
One might argue that Pittsburgh’s biggest need are fans to actually attend the games.
So if the Astros have a bad pitcher on their hands that even they can’t fix, do they trade him to the Pirates, and then back to the Astros so that they can fix what the Pirates broke?
I think the Expos should go after him
Him for tellez i have a feeling was the deal with Jays
I think he’d do well with the Giants. Gausman type pick up for Farhan.
I’m really liking what Cherington has done since taking over as GM. He’s made a handful of different moves to change up player development and scouting. Oscar Marin I think is the savior this pitching staff needed. I have faith that Cherington actually has a plan, because it seemed like under Huntington, especially in the last two or so seasons of his tenure, he never fully committed to a plan to take the Bucs in.
Cherrington did a great job while in Boston, he’s a brilliant GM. The only problem was he couldn’t put them over the top like DD did, because DD used the farm to win the WS. But it was Cherrington who built the farm up, and the assute fans know that in Boston. Don’t give up on him, he gave the Redsox team it’s cor when they won the WS. I’m so happy he found a home where they appreciate him.
I think that both Hurdle and NH started sleeping on the job in certain areas once they got four year contracts after two mediocre seasons.
I’d be asking the Jays about Gabriel Monero, and the Braves about Williams Conteras. Gives them an impact catching prospect, but like another commenter already said, they are looking for talent, not need. Although I will say that Monero and Conteras are very notable prospects.
No on Contreras. We need to trim the fat off our upper MiLB pitching not unlike Charlie Morton/Jeff Locke (along with IF Gorkys Hernandez) for McLouth years ago. We give you controllable high ceiling guys with room to grow, we get 2 years of consistent innings eater with a high floor/high ceiling (assuming all of his arb salary).
I don’t mind this as a jays perspective. With the catching surplus they have it could be an idea moving a possible catcher who needs to be added to the 40 man or be exposed. If the jays like Musgrove a lot and with that extra year of control it seems possible.
I like the Moreno idea and would also throw in Langaliers as a Brave possibility instead of Contreras. Being in Brave country I get the feeling there is something they don’t like about Contreras… could be total fake news, just passing it along. I agree with your comment on Cherington. Plus any new GM deserves a chance and they are not an immediate turn around candidate as a franchise.
Wait…if ATL doesn’t like Contreras, why would they trade their Langeliers? That doesn’t make sense. Very telling that when they were desperate for catching depth they turned to Contreras (and not Langeliers) and dude looked solid in a small sample size. Also held is own behind the plate. Would be interested to know why you think ATL doesn’t value him as a future piece.I don’t think Langeliers has the upper hand on “C of the future” despite his lofty draft pick status.
My response was from the Pirate view. Both are considered top prospects, Contreras had played as high as AA and Langaliers A so experience and MLB readiness Contreras was the logical pick to get called up and he played well.. When they signed D’Arnaud I thought I heard talking heads referencing when his contract was up Langaliers would be ready(implying they thought he was C of future). Please take my ‘could be fake news’ to heart, I have NO inside info just passing on what I thought I heard from what could be very unreliable sources. I would gladly take either for the Pirates system..
Ah, I agree with the sentiment but I think no MiLB in 2020 screwed that pooch. I’d be surprised if either were ready by 2021 (when d’Arnaud) becomes a FA even with a full MiLB season — pipe dream. I look forward to the day I don’t see Flowers on the lineup card.
I don’t mind Flowers in his role now which I think will be Sunday afternoon and day game after a night game catcher. Honestly, I would survey the pitchers, if they love him, keep him as the backup. I think his days splitting time like he did with Suzuki are over.
It would take more then Musgrove to get Contreras or Langliers from Atlanta.
Alex Jackson is the catcher that Musgrove might fetch.
AJax…yeesh. Not sure if they’d pay his airfare. I would imagine a Wilson/Muller/Davidson would be a centerpiece with a OF Michael Harris secondary piece (or IF Shewmake).
Yea typical Brave fan ! Overvalued.! That’s one reason you get beat in playoffs.
The Braves lost in the playoffs because they didn’t have enough healthy starting pitchers for a no days off 7 game series. With a regular 2-3-2 format, they probably win.
Joe Musgrove is overvalued. 3.86 ERA pitching exclusively against the weak hitting central divisions. Limited to 40 innings because of an arm injury. K/9 were up,but Walks/9 nearly doubled. Assuming Soroka comes back healthy, I don’t think Musgrove would crack the starting rotation.
You definitley are a questionable source, especially if you’re looking at just ERA. Since arriving in Pittsburgh, he has a 3.69 FIP, 1.205 WHIP and 4 strikeouts for every walk. He also limits home runs with a 1.05 HR/9, 45.2% groundball rate, and has posted a deserved run average below 4 in each of the last 3 seasons. Musgrove had a 3.3 fWAR in 2019 and averages 3 WAR per 150 innings pitched since joining Pittsburgh. Musgrove throws six pitches with a slider and curve ball with above 2500 RPM, and fastball in the 2450 RPM range. He’s been plagued by constant bad defense, because the Pirates have ranked 22nd in DRS, 28th in UZR and 27th in range runs above average. He’d easily be the Braves’ #3 starter.
Mlb- Please do not let facts influence your opinion.
6 pitches… [jawdrop]
It’s a joke how people trash Musgrove. The dude can pitch, he knows how to pitch, he’s a hoss and just needs the right situation. Basically, people want to give table scraps for him, because “he is overrated”. He is a perfect guy to go and buy. But there is talent there. He was part of the package for Cole. You are NOT getting him for prospect 19 and 28 in your system. It takes two top 10 SYSTEM prospects, prospects who are still unproven commodities.
What about year before? Lost out in playoff attempt because of overvalued thought of prospects. They needed legit starter and didn’t make a trade. You can’t keep everyone.
I trade Alex Jackson in a heartbeat if he was the player that netted Musgrove.
The rumor around Musgrove at the deadline was Kirk who the Jays added to the roster this year. Moreno is rule 5 eligible and they have 3 catchers already on the roster. Moreno would be a very real possibility as the Jays are deep there. I don’t want to give up Moreno because he seems to be well regarded both offensively and defensively, but for Musgrove, I’d do that. They have the depth to afford it. Surely another piece would be needed, but Moreno as a starting point is doable.
I’d totally be fine with a Musgrove+Rich-Rod straight up for Monero trade.
Personally I was hoping for more. Moreno plus another lower ranked prospect for just Musgrove. While they could never do it, I always wish we could see what is really offered or proposed.
Admittedly, I haven’t seen a lot of the Pirates version of Musgrove. I saw him when he was with Houston. But when I look at the numbers, he seems like a guy who is a pretty stable mid-rotation performer. There’s not a lot of huge swings in performance year to year and his FIP seems to be in line with the ERA. I like the pitch usage. I guess as a Jays fan who is used to decent money for under performing back of the rotation veterans, I see Musgrove as a pretty safe investment at 2 arb controlled years. His projected salary seems like a bargain. Seems like you could ask for a decent piece for each year of control. When I see what the Jays used to acquire Stripling and Villar, I think you could get more than just Moreno for Musgrove. The Ray signing might be a bit of an obstacle, but maybe not. There’s room for someone else and Musgrove would fit in ahead of what’s already there and the free agent market isn’t exactly full of inspiring options.
Relegate 5th place teams to a real AAA.
that’s a good way to alienate fanbases
He gets traded and ends up being another Charlie Morton. Dude is a 4-5 starter with high side being a 3. But in Pittsburgh had to be the ace. Not only the ace but one that couldn’t give up a run if he wanted the slightest chance to win
Depending on what it would take to acquire him… I could see him being a solid fit for the Red Sox. He’s got 3 more years of team control and they could desperately use young(ish) controllable starting pitching. And his salary should be relatively affordable coming off a season in which he made (prorated) $3.5M or so in arbitration he’s probably looking at a modest raise maybe to the $5M ballpark. Given that the Sox have the financial flexibility to add that to their roster (easily)… and should be at least competitive again next season (not saying WS contenders… but should at least be competitive) — he could be a really nice add to their rotation and someone who will be around for the next few years at a reasonable rate.
I like him for the RS as well, but I believe that he has only two year left, according to B-R. He looks like one of those post-hype candidates that might need a change of scenery.
As an Angels fan, we’ll take anybody who can pitch.
As a Mets fan, same… the market for mid rotation SP will prob be more competitive than ever
Braves were rumored to be in on him at the deadline… would love to go grab him this offseason as a kid to back part of the rotation guy for us. Question is, what’s the prospect capital it will take to get him?? Muller and another top 30 prospect? Too little or too much? I’d imagine that’s a good starting point to get the conversation rolling
That is about what I would hope for / expect as a Pirate fan. One prospect from right below the untouchables (Playoff participants and Waters) and another Top 30 likely on the young side. Personally I would hope for one of the catchers instead of Muller / Davidson.
I don’t think all playoff participants are untouchable (i.e. Bryse Wilson). For some reason ATL doesn’t really want to give him a shot until they’re backed into a corner. Hope that I’m wrong. Really like his tenacity.
I’d go after Waters though his strike our rate is concerning, however, the Pirates need OF talent BAD. They have virtually nothing that is young there other than Reynolds and Swaggerty on the farm. The rest are middling level talents.
Waters and Muller would be my ask. Musgrove is 27 year old, potentially a SP-3, a workhorse who started to show elite bat missing availability last year. He is pretty well proven. That is worth more than a couple average prospects. That’s worth some pretty legitimate talent I think. Braves won’t miss Muller, but do they consider Waters an elite prospect? He’s still quite young for AAA so it would be risky to trade him, but it’s also risky to return the rotation you had.
Some people (obviously far from the majority though) think Waters could be the better overall player eventually between him and Pache. That alone means he is probably not getting traded unless in a very special deal.
I agree, waters is prob as close to untouchable as possible at the moment and if you do trade him, it’s prob not for a musgrove. Braves would likely have a hard time trading the catching prospects unless it’s in the bottom tier of the top 30, although we have a solid handful. So I can see why you would prefer to have one. I can definitely see a muller and Alex Jackson for musgrove. But if I’m a pirates fan, I’d want someone other than Jackson or in addition to. I think both are top catching prospects are gonna be legit.
Musgrove and Polanco to phi
Gamboa, Suarez, Quinn and de los santos to Pitt
I feel bad for all the Angels fans that are commenting about their team. Albert Pujols was bought based on past performances, and it bit them in the rear. Same as Hamilton. I love how baseball has changed its philosophy on that stuff. As far as Musgrove is concerned, I agree that with the other Phillies phans on here. I say listen to what the Pirates want for him. This would give them a reason to use VV as a multi inning guy in the pen/step in starter if needed. I’m also not opposed to signing Cole Hamels back for a year. We’d have Nola, Wheeler, Hamels, Musgrove and Eflin. Not a bad rotation. This would free up money to hopefully either get JT back or spend on GOOD bullpen pieces, something Klentak failed miserably to do.
I disagree, Pirates could be in a position to contend if the playoff situation stays the same as 2020.
a return to 2019 form for Bell, Fraizer, Newman, Reynolds, a healthy polanco, Stallings keeping it up and Hayes means they need to decide on a third outfielder either in house with the likes of Osuna, Alford or a bounce back type signing. With Cole, Erik, Colin, etc from the bench Could be a pretty good Offensive line up.
Starting pitching looked okay at the end of 2020 after more time with the new staff i’m assuming. they keep that progress having a rotation of Taillon, Musgrove, Brault, Keller, a resigned Archer could be better than passable.
A quality pen signing or two would make a world of difference as they bombed last year.
With that in mind, I wouldn’t trade anyone unless the return is over value. Get a low cost outfielder and a couple pen arms, resign archer and maybe another bounce back starter and hope they can return to form. Wouldn’t cost an arm and a leg either unless they go for a bigger name, which i highly doubt.
If they do and they’re still out of the running they have more available in trade. You risk value dropping more, but with it being lower anyway i don’t think you are losing much. Just what i would do.
Taking down former GM Of the Pirates NH trades and dealings! You can’t officially take down what damages that guy done and get anything in return that has significant worth when trading Musgrove, Moran, etc. to any club. I know we are looking at 5 years (at least) before we have a solid roster again. By that time, Hayes, Keller, Bell, and few others will be gone or about to be traded. It hurts being a Pirates fan and tough being loyal to a organization that can’t provide continuous winning and be effective doing so. It’s pretty bad Tampa Bay who is worst off with fan support, provides consistency with winning. If they are out of the picture and not winning, it’s not long before they are back and making that AL East competitive
Pirates and Big Joe fan.
What about a deal with Oakland for Dustin Fowler, Sheldon Neuse or Logan Allen and Daulton Jeffries?
Oakland is still doing their rotation with some smoke and mirrors and Joe with a class defense behind him could be legit.
Pittsburgh grabs post hype prospect Fowler to man an OF spot, Neuse/Allen are nearly ready to go allowing them to trade either Newman or Frazier. Jeffries is another post hype type prospect who made his MLB debut last year (ugly) and does have some talent.
Instead of getting a bunch of rookie ballers like they did with Marte I think they need to take fliers on guys who are close to ready to go. You aren’t getting elite 22 yo prospects in such deals, but you could get multiple guys who seem to have “lost favor” in the As system. Not that Allen or Neuse have, but Fowler clearly has and Musgrove easily replaces whatever Jeffries could bring.
Going to the Padres for 2 MLB experienced players, Mejia and Lucchesi. Maybe the Padres throw in a PTBNL
Don’t count the Mariners out. You never know with Jerry.
without teams like the Pirates, Yankees and Astros would not be able to trade or obtain free agents like Gerritt Cole, they may be a 4A team for sure, but MLB allows this crazyness. With revenue sharing, Pirates and other cellar dwellers must deliver an annual plan to MLB to improve their competitiveness/records. If the don’t owners should be put on notice that they have 3 years to to achieve playoff or Franchise has to be placed for sale.
The only craziness is thinking that the small market teams can compete on any semblance of an equal footing.
This is not like hockey and football where there is an equality of competition.
You can call the Pirates anything you want.They cannot sign the high priced free agents unless one puts them over the top.That is why they trade the Gerritt Coles unless they are competitive to get young low priced players in return
MLB only cares about money and the big markets.
Your suggestion is ludicrous as turnaround in ownership every three years would be a disaster.
The only way out is to have owners like Steve Cohen who have so much money they can waste some on high priced free agents who do not work out.
These owners are businessmen first and foremost and they are not stupid.They buy the teams that will return the investment the quickest.