Several notable players have surpassed the threshold for Super Two status, earning them an extra year of arbitration eligibility. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), the following players have all gained a fourth arbitration year: Walker Buehler, Clint Frazier, Max Fried, Dominic Smith, Mike Soroka, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, and Brandon Woodruff. Other players who should qualify include J.D. Davis (as Tim Britton of The Athletic notes via Twitter) and Austin Slater (as per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman).
The official Super Two cutoff point hasn’t yet been established. The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler reported that Miguel Andujar (who has two years and 117 days of service time) fell five days short of Super Two status, though Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports that the Nationals’ Wander Suero “missed it by just a few days,” and Suero has two years, 123 days of service time.
Of the players mentioned, Frazier has the least amount of service time, with two years and 133 days. For comparison’s sake, here are the Super Two cutoff points for the last 11 years….
- 2019: 2.115
- 2018: 2.134
- 2017: 2.123
- 2016: 2.131
- 2015: 2.130
- 2014: 2.133
- 2013: 2.122
- 2012: 2.140
- 2011: 2.146
- 2010: 2.122
- 2009: 2.139
As a refresher, all players become eligible for arbitration after they amass three full seasons of Major League service time. However, of the players who have between two and three seasons of service time, the top 22 percent of that group qualify as Super Twos, and thus they get become arbitration-eligible going into their third season, not after their third season.
Naturally, this means a lot of extra money in these players’ bank accounts, as they’ll get a significant raise on the minimum salary. For the players who have already posted some big numbers, the ability to not just get an extra arbitration year but to establish a high salary benchmark in that first year provides the opportunity to bank several extra millions of dollars in escalating salaries through their arb years. For instance, Soto has done nothing but mash at a Cooperstown level since joining the Nationals’ lineup, and is projected to earn between $4.5MM and $8.5MM in his first arb-eligible year. Assuming Soto keeps producing at anything close to his current rate, he seems like a solid bet to reach $20MM in average annual salary by his fourth year of arbitration eligibility.
This offseason’s arbitration class is unusual, of course, since the shortened season will throw off some of the normal methods for calculating arb salaries. In his annual arbitration projections for MLBTR, Matt Swartz provided three different methods (and often, three different projected salaries) for each player, depending on how arbiters view 2020 statistics.
Money well spent on all these guys. Where can I send my donations for a Juan Soto extension fund?
I hope you have a lot of shekels!
P.O. Box 23
Looiebelongsinthehall, USA
He would look good in the Braves outfield
Is that why Andujars agent went nuts when they sent him down in Sep?
I would suppose so. Kinda messed up too…although not as if he has done anything in two years.
Dont understand at all how S2 works, or what the impact would have been.
Just thought of that when he fell short by that much.
In the Yankee’s defense, he would have reached this level if he played well.
To be fair, the Yankees were trying to win and didn’t have time to play Andujar because they had better options available.
Think of it like this…
Average ballplayer, first 3 years of major league service gets paid as little as league minimum and any raise is at the whim of the team. Then, in years 4-6 they get their salary set through arbitration.
Super 2 player has enough service time after their second year that they get arbitration (and raises) in years 3-6. The team only got to set the salary in the first 2 seasons.
Picture salaries (using unrealistic round numbers.)
Normal player – 500k, 500k, 500k, 3m, 6m, 12m. That’s 6 years earnings, 22.5m total.
Super 3 – 500k, 500k, 3m, 6m, 12m, 24m. That’s 46m total.
Now it’s not a rule that salaries jump equal or double each year. But you can see how earnings multiply and escalate.
The cutoff was 2.129 this year.
Will Soto be Nat after his contract runs out??? I would love him on my team
So would fans of every other team. That decision is years away unless some team blows the Nats away with an offer.
Obviously who wouldn’t. I’m not predicting Soto to the Mets. I’m just saying now with Cohen it’s possibility and it never was before
Soto’s already got a ring, so Mets are a possibility for him.
So that would make the Braves a possibility too? But could the Braves even afford him???
With Acuña, Albies making up 2 of the most valuable deals in MLB – you betcha.
Mostly it depends how he feels about deferred money…
If he doesn’t mind it, he should retire a national.
If deferred money is a no-go, he could land anywhere.
The Braves are currently 43 mill guaranteed for 2022. Kind of scary what they could do.
I’m not scared at all.
Soto will be given a monster extension within the next 2 years. He’ll be a National for a long time.
he would not pull a harper
Crazy trade proposal (note: I am not a fan of either team): Washington has remained competitive via pitching; Cleveland desperately needs an OF who can hit. Soto for Bieber, who says no?
Washington says no, deletes CLE’s number, and then blocks it
I know the Nats would say no – they need hitting now more than they need pitching.
The lost Harper prior to 2019. They lost Rendon prior to 2020. They can’t lose Soto prior to 2021. He’s the only middle of the order bat they have.
That’s a good point. I’m just thinking that Scherzer, Strasburg, and Bieber would be a nightmare playoff rotation. For Cleveland, I was thinking of their OF need, plus, they could use Soto for two years and trade him back out for a bigger package than they could get for using two years of Bieber and trading him out as a rental.
To me, the biggest point of lopsided value is Bieber has three years left to Soto’s four.
Nats say no. Maybe If the Indians give Bieber Ramirez and their 3 best prospects the Nats might listen
Ok, my proposal may not have been entirely fair, but yours is Yankee-fan level ridiculous. Is there something in the water in New York?
Value wise you’re completely right. You don’t trade a player like Soto unless they overpay like that. Lots of teams probably take Soto over Ramirez and Bieber. Even if Bieber and Ramirez give you more combined value next year.
Take Soto over Ramirez *or* Bieber, yes. Over Ramirez *and* Bieber? I doubt that. Maybe if a team is set at 3rd and already has a great pitching staff while also having a hole in the OF, but that list of teams is awfully short and there’s not a rotation in baseball that wouldn’t be significantly better for having Bieber on it instead of their current #5.
For one year most teams take Ramirez and Bieber. I’m saying most teams would keep Soto over those two if they are starting a franchise
Soto is the closest thing to Mookie Betts & Mike Trout as there is in baseball. No way Washington trades him even for an ace. An everyday super star is worth more than a once every 5 day super star pitcher. If you expand the package to Bieber, J-Ram and Lindor then Washington certainly considers that, but that’s the level of talent they’d need to even consider moving Soto.
Soto is nowhere near betts or trout are you kidding lol
Yeah Soto is better offensively but unfortunately no where near them in fielding. If he gets to slightly above average fielding in the future then things will change
you’re right he’s way better than Betts.
Betts at 21 wishes he was as good as soto
I like my pitchers like I like my chicken, Fried.
I Wander if Suero is gonna be arbitration eligible?