Back in June, MLBTR conducted a pair of polls checking the temperature on the two MVP races, and both polls saw the league’s reigning MVP earn a dominating majority. Aaron Judge pulled in 55% of the vote in the American League poll, while Shohei Ohtani did even better as he commanded 57% of the vote in the National League’s poll. Since then, Ohtani has broken away from the pack in the NL as he’s more fully resumed two-way duties. While other players like Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Pete Crow-Armstrong have put together excellent seasons of their own in the NL, it’s hard to see that race as anything other than Ohtani’s to lose headed into the final month of the season.
By contrast, the AL MVP race has tightened considerably over the past two months. A big part of that is the fact that Judge hasn’t looked like his usual superhuman self lately. The 33-year-old is still slashing an absurd .323/.439/.667 (193 wRC+), a figure that leads the majors by a substantial margin. However, Judge’s numbers have come down quite a bit in the past two months. Since the day our last AL MVP poll was published, Judge has hit “just” .240/.385/.540 with 12 homers and a 26% strikeout rate in 192 trips to the plate.
That lack of volume is thanks to a flexor strain in Judge’s elbow that sent him to the injured list for a minimum stint a few weeks ago, and his .210/.380/.403 slash line since returning from the injured list only underscores that he’s not playing at full strength. He’s also been relegated to a DH-only role for the month of August and has no timetable for his return to the outfield, though he’s already begun making throws to the infield in pregame workouts.
Of course, Judge looking mortal for a month or so wouldn’t be terribly noteworthy without someone mounting a substantial challenge for his league’s MVP award. Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is doing exactly that. Raleigh’s phenomenal season has earned him plenty of attention all year, but he’s only garnered more attention as an MVP candidate in the weeks since Judge’s injury. Interestingly, Raleigh’s offensive numbers have slumped a bit right alongside Judge. While he was slashing .278/.383/.665 at the time of our last AL MVP poll, he’s hit a less robust .204/.311/.498 in 235 plate appearances since then. That includes a .202/.302/.524 slash line in August that isn’t all that far ahead of Judge’s numbers.
Even with the pair both cooling at the plate, Raleigh has still been playing catcher regularly and hasn’t missed time on the IL like Judge has. Raleigh, who secured just 37% of the vote in our last poll, now has eight more games played and 31 more plate appearances than Judge. It’s a small gap, but in a close race, an increased defensive workload and slight lead in terms of overall volume could be key differentiators.
There’s also the factor of history to be considered. Judge managed to surpass Ohtani in the 2022 AL MVP race in part because he set the AL home run record that season. Raleigh would need to hit 13 homers before the end of the season in order to take the title of AL home run king away from Judge, but his prodigious power has already secured him one piece of history that Judge has no hope of taking away: last night, he became the first catcher in MLB history to slug 50 homers in a season. All of that comes together to make Raleigh a legitimate contender for the award alongside Judge, and the fact that the pair are tied at the top of the MLB leaderboard with 7.3 fWAR a piece only further speaks to the viability of both candidates.
Few players in the AL have a realistic shot of challenging these two titans, but one player who could make an interesting case for himself with a strong September would be Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who finished second for the award behind Judge last year. Witt only received token consideration for the award in our last poll, garnering just 2.3% of the vote two months ago. Since then, however, he’s outperformed both Judge and Raleigh with a .313/.370/.524 slash line, a 13-for-14 record on the bases, and defense at shortstop that should make him a lock for his second consecutive Gold Glove award at the position. Witt’s 6.5 fWAR and 130 wRC+ both substantially trail Judge and Raleigh at this point, but if those two continue trending downward while Witt continues trending up, it’s at least possible that we could be in for a three-horse race.
Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately win this year’s AL MVP award? Will Judge hold onto the title for the second year in a row? Will Raleigh’s historic season behind the plate be enough? Could Witt’s second-half surge be enough to overcome both of them? Have your say in the poll below:
Still inclined to believe it will be Judge.
It should be. He’s clearly the best player.
A guy batting 240 something will never be MVP. Baseball writers still value batting average.
Is there an argument to say Shohei only hit 257 in 2021? Or is the counter that he pitched too? ….which I would counter this is a catcher up for nomination.
I think judge gets it still but Raleigh is having a historic season for a catcher.
As a switch hitting catcher, Raleigh, you would hope, gets the nod for what he’s doing; however, he’s still got a month left and what he’s gained during Judge’s injured period may not be enough if Judge gets back to it.
At most other positions I would have no problem placing a certain amount of importance (not excessively so, but not zero either) on batting average. But at an absolutely premium position like catcher, if you’re doing literally everything else at an elite level I can look the other way on a lackluster batting average. I think yes you could also say the same for Ohtani in ’21 given he was also pitching and pitching at a high level, not just only hitting.
Probably right…banging away on their typewriters, wearing ascots and powdered wigs.
“Duly noted.” – cloud in the sky
Yet every hitting metric favors Judge. Wompwomp
The amount of work a catcher has to put in defensively is taxing enough, but to put up that kind of pop on top and break the record for most homers by a catcher is enough for me to give him the vote. Not saying Judge isn’t worthy.
A catcher, chasing down the AL HR record, withing striking distance with still a week to go in August. If Raleigh can make it to 60 and certainly 62, there is nothing Judge can do to beat him.
I think what Cal is doing, over the course of a full season, is more impressive than Judge. In a day and age where you take whatever you can take offensively from a catcher, this guy is rewriting the history books.
Now if Cal was say a 1B and putting up these offensive numbers, different story.
1st base is a hitters position, right field is a hitters position, catcher is arguably the hardest position to play well defensively and hit
Catcher is made for guys like Austin hedges
Judge is the best player in baseball, but this year belongs to Cal.
Best “regular season” player like Peyton Manning often was in football. Not postseason when facing the best SPs and bullpen arms. Lot of players better than Judge in primetime.
If judge doesn’t get back to first half Judge then Cal will win the award. Otherwise it’s Judges to lose
Most valuable is hard to quantify in the great game of baseball because as we know, baseball ts a team sport built around some individual accomplishments of certain players we call superstars. I would probably pick Cal since imo he is a big reason why the long suffering mariners are in the race.
Valuable in what way?
To me it has to go hand in hand with an accomplished team. Because even if a guy hit 100 home runs, if his team misses the playoffs how valuable was that? Now I’m okay with once in a while considering an exception if a guy from a non-playoff team really goes nuclear and stood head and shoulders above the other MVP contenders. That happens in playoff fields sometimes too. But most playoff MVPs come from teams that win. So should regular season MVPs.
Going from there, my preference would be “whose performance was the most irreplaceable in getting his team to October?” Judge, Raleigh, and Witt obviously belong in this conversation.. In this season it’s hard to say who else. I think Jeremy Pena and Jose Ramirez deserve some down-ballot love for putting their respective teams on their backs this year. But essential as they’ve been to their squads their numbers are not even close to what Judge and Raleigh have been doing so they can’t be in serious contention to actually win the award. Can probably say the same for Vladdy and Springer on the Blue Jays. They have both been very good and their team has been very good, but they are just not on the same level right now.
TLDR I think it’s pretty tough to argue that anyone has been snubbed from this MVP race. Just as no team has run away from the pack in the standings, no player has really forced his way into the conversation here as of yet. Maybe Witt can make this a tougher conversation if he has a very strong stretch run while the other two don’t manage to rediscover their top gears.
Cal and it’s not even close.
The problem is that most fans look at the MVP as just for hitting stats. This is the most valuable “player“. You need to take everything into Account. Yes, hitting should lead the way. But ignoring what Cal does defensively as well as working with the pitching staff would be absolutely absurd. Most fans seem to want to ignore it. Hopefully the writers aren’t that blind. Cal deserves the MVP as he is shattering the record books of what some of the top catchers in the history of the game ever did. Ignoring that because everyone just loves Aaron Judge is ridiculous.
Big Dumper all the way!
Kurtz had been best hitter in mlb last 3 months , he should get a couple votes
🎶 If you want an AL MVP, go see Cal…🎶
The Big Worthington….
Ah Worthington dodge, Cal was a hoot wasnt he.
Anyone who grew up in SoCal in the 70s and 80s just had a smile put on their face.
And yes, Cal all the way.
Raleigh’s catcher home run record has a bit of cheesiness to it. I think he has hit 9 HRs as a DH. Same with Salvador Perez former record. I don’t see how you can claim HRs stats to your playing position if some occurred when you weren’t actually playing your position and were a DH.
Ohtani was a DH and his hitting stats count towards an MVP. Cal Raleigh!!!!!
The phrasing is always “Home runs hit by a player whose primary position is Catcher.” and not “Home runs hit while playing catcher.”
But also, Raleigh is currently at 40 HRs when playing catcher, which puts him 2 behind Javy Lopez in 2003 for the record, which he will likely also break barring an injury.
(Source: mlb.com/mariners/news/most-home-runs-by-a-catcher)
Suppose statisticians could subtract HRs not hit on days each player weren’t catching, but probably being forgiving since C is the most demanding position. If he were only catching say half the time and doing bulk of the damage in those other games, the spirit of it would be in question.
I think that Judge and Raleigh both have very strong platforms, and there will be plenty of legitimate arguments for Judge to take the award, but right now I see it going to Cal.
Cal and AJ having great years no doubt… but can’t believe I see no support for Devers???
Devers can win the “most valuable addition by subtraction” award for his contributions to the increased Red Sox youth playing time with him gone igniting club.
Most VALUABLE…….Cal Raleigh
No discussion needed
Forget the East Coast bias
As good as Cal has been, I’m going with the guy with an OPS+ over 200!
WPA:
Cal Raleigh: 4.03
Aaron Judge: 3.74
We’ll see how it pans out at the end of the season but so far, it looks like Cal should win it.
The 77 people thus far that voted for other.. trolling or do you know something we don’t?
Maybe they are picking their custom players from MLB The Show? *Shrugs*
Too much pressure. They’re abstaining.
Judge the best player, but Raleigh having a an epic season. Still time for it to switch, but if voting today it’s clearly Cal for me.