This offseason has brought major changes to the Cubs, who have lost president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and key on-field contributors in Yu Darvish, Kyle Schwarber and Victor Caratini since the winter began. Free-agent left-hander Jon Lester may be one of the next to officially go, as Robert Murray of FanSided reports “there has been little indication of progress toward a reunion” between the two sides.
Soon to turn 37 years old, Lester reached free agency when the Cubs declined his $25MM option for 2021 in favor of a $10MM buyout. That was a straightforward decision for the Cubs, though Lester didn’t harbor any ill will toward the club in its aftermath. He even said there was “mutual” interest in a new deal once Chicago terminated his previous pact. Since then, however, there hasn’t been much news on Lester. San Francisco is the only reported team that has shown interest in him in the past several weeks.
On paper, losing Lester probably won’t be a big blow to the Cubs. After all, the former star struggled to a 5.16 ERA/5.14 FIP in 61 innings last season, and also wasn’t a world-beater in 2019. However, having made enormous contributions to the franchise since joining it in 2015, Lester is a Cubs great and well-respected veteran who, even in this late stage of his career, has shown he’s capable of eating innings on a regular basis. In fact, he amassed at least 171 2/3 frames in each of his first five seasons as a Cub before last year’s pandemic-shortened campaign.
Lester shouldn’t be expensive for the Cubs to re-sign, but if they don’t bring him back, they may need to find another source(s) of innings from outside the organization. Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies (whom they acquired in the Darvish trade) are the only truly proven starters on the roster. While Alec Mills did pile up 62 1/3 innings in 2020, he didn’t prevent runs at a strong clip. There’s little experience to speak of otherwise among starting possibilities on the Cubs’ 40-man roster. Colin Rea and Adbert Alzolay could vie for spots, and their No. 1-ranked prospect, Brailyn Marquez, might be in for a larger major league role next season after throwing just two-thirds of an inning in 2020.
Sox should grab him for nostalgias sake. He already knows all the good dunkin spots around fenzone
I’d buy that for a dollar!
I don’t see Lester as anything more than a #5 starter at this point in his career and even that is kind of questionable. I would prefer to go with a lesser known name that has much more upside at #5. Maybe someone like Drew Smyly since the Braves signed him to pitch 5th. If your #5 pitcher is expected to post a 5+ ERA then whatever team he plays for either needs to have a really good top 4 rotation or they just shouldn’t really be expecting to contend.
Depends on the team… pirates Os royals Mariners rangers insert more bad teams
Hey, leave the Pirates out of it, bud. We’re looking forward to guys who can help with that pennant run in ‘26
Doesn’t make sense for the Mariners. They are more likely to go after Paxton.
that’s what “expected to contend” means
Lester can help with PGH’s ‘26 run. Being bad = better near-term draft picks.
*Walker
BovineCrab:
While I agree with your expectations for Lester, your preference, to go with a lesser known name that has much more upside, is questionable. There are more rotation spots than there are available SPs. You mention Smyly, but he’s not available. If you prefer another guy to Lester to should name someone that fits your preference that is available.
I’d take Lester as my number five for most clubs. His innings can save the pen and come October he may not be your choice to start a playoff game in 2021 but if circumstances require it, he’s a gamer who can deliver in a one or two shot dosage.
I mentioned Smyly because he was initially a free agent at the beginning of the offseason and any team could have signed him. Smyly was also signed to be a #5 starting pitcher. At this point the only service that Lester provides is keeping innings pitched and pitch counts lower for younger prospects so they don’t get hurt. Lowtalker is right. He is better suited on a team like the Pirates, O’s, Mariners or Rangers because they don’t actually need him to win games. They just need him to let the prospects stay healthy. Smyly was available. Any team that decides to sign Lester could have signed Smyly. It only makes sense for them not to do that if they figure winning this season isn’t really an option anyway.
looie just proved my point. Lester’s innings can “save the ‘pen.” Any team that wanted to actually get a #5 starter that has the potential to be a winner in 2021 should have gone after Smyly before he got signed, or just sign someone with similar potential upside to Smyly. Lester is better suited teaching a younger staff and pitching for a team that isn’t going to contend anyway.
I agree with you. I think Tiant belongs in the hall as well.
BovineCrab:
Mentioning Smyly, long after he’s been signed by the Braves, says nothing. The issue is who can a team sign now that has more upside than Lester. Throwing Smyly’s name out there is just lazy, like saying the M’s should have drafted Mike Trout instead of Dustin Ackley. If you think a different pitcher with more upside is preferable to Lester, then who is that guy?.
A team that might be interested in signing Lester now might have also tried to sign Smyly when he was available. Your post basically says that team should have signed Smyly. That’s useless. They may have tried ti do so. It was rumored that multiple teams were interested. The Braves overpaid for him. Now, there’s multiple teams looking for pitching and there was only one Smyly.
tad:
I completely disagree with your comparison of Dustin Ackley and Mike Trout. That was drafting young kids who were still growing in a circumstance where teams had to guess where they would be years down the line. We are talking about 2 major leaguers who just showed what they could do a few months ago. I will answer your question though. There are the obvious guys like Bauer but they don’t count because of price point. I mentioned Smyly because if you need a starting pitcher and an $11 million deal is out of your price range you must just not be trying to win when that pitcher is on the mound. I would say Adam Wainwright, Rick Porcello and Felix Hernandez are better pickups as a #5 pitcher than Lester. I know King Felix was terrible in 2019 but he is a lot younger than any of them and now he has a year full of rest. I also watched him in 2020 Spring Training and he had the Braves 5th starter job flat won before he opted out due to covid. He would also cost somewhere around 90% less than what people are suggesting Lester will get. Porcello I have less faith in but at least his peripherals were better than Lester’s last season and by a wide margin. Wainwright just looks better in every way and they are about the same age. Does that answer your question? I could go more in depth and look it up but those guys are the ones off the top of my head.
BovineCrab:
Sorry you disagree, but saying what any team should have done in hindsight in any situation, is just useless. Many teams should have signed Michael Brantley last season, but they didn’t. Saying that any team should have signed him is, again, useless. Especially since we know nothing about what any team had offered.
Saying a team, that’s not willing to overpay for Smyly, just doesn’t want to win, is naive. Teams don’t work that way in how they approach FAs. Every team has a budget of some sort, and they have a value attached to every player under consideration. It’s highly doubtful that any team had a value of over $11M for Smyly, which is what it would have taken to sign him away from the Braves. And it is very possible that $11M is an overpay.
I am glad to see you name guys that you would sign over Lester that are more relevant to the discussion. I don’t see Wainwright as being comparable in any way, nor would I describe any of them as being “…a lesser known name that has much more upside…”.
Plus I think Hernandez is a big gamble. He hasn’t had an ERA+ over 100 since 2016. He’s lost almost 5 MPH off his FB from his career high in 2008, and he’s lost over 3 MPH since 2014. Lester has lost velocity as well, but he had a 125 ERA+ as recently as 2018. I find him way more preferable to Hernandez. Porcello who’s had one average season (103 ERA+), since 2016, might be worth a shot, though I see him and Lester as about equal.
At 11M, smyly is not a value play…
I don’t get people dismissing Drew. The Braves paidva premium for him.
Last season Drew Smyly had an ERA of 3.42. His peripherals suggest that even though 3.42 is a low ERA for a major league pitcher in Smyly’s case the number was still significantly worse than it should have been. Smyly’s FIP was 2.01. That’s where he likely should have been. I didn’t pay enough attention to the Giants last season to know what San Francisco’s defense did behind him but I do know for a fact the Braves have a much better defense. Most Braves starting pitchers post ERA’s noticeably below their FIP. With the Braves defense Smyly turns into a pitcher that pitches to his capability and his FIP suggests his capability is about 2 runs per 9 innings pitched. Lester’s FIP suggest his capability is over 5 runs per 9 innings pitched. They aren’t even close. One will be well below average and the other could be an ace (as a #5 pitcher nonetheless). There is the stringer possibility Smyly gets injured but that’s why I call it upside. Yes… The Braves paid above the expected price for Smyly but it’s still only an $11 million deal for a starting pitcher that would likely have produced an ERA in the very low 2.00’s for most teams last season. It’s taking a risk but $11 million isn’t a huge risk with that much upside. People tend to dismiss Smyly because MLBTR suggested he would get a contract half that price due to his injury history. I bet that is the only time in history that MLBTR gave a price that low for a free agent starting pitcher Smyly’s age that pitched at least the same percentage of his team’s inning’s and posted an FIP of 2.01. Especially when you consider how high Smyly was drafted and his pedigree. My guess is MLBTR looked at his injury history and the “COVID shortened season factor” and based it off that. To be honest, as much as MLBTR writers dismiss win-loss records in their articles because they realize they frequently have little or no bearing on how great a pitcher really is… I think they ignored their own beliefs when they evaluated Smyly and factored his win-loss record into the equation. They also did the same thing with regard to saves. They ranked Braves reliever Greene below Melancon even though Melancon is clearly older, on the decline and currently less talented. I think MLBTR ranks players based on the idea that they believe MLB owners and GM’s are dumber than they are. That’s the only conclusion I can come up with. At least the very least they don’t practice what they preach when it comes to how much pitchers should make on the free agent market.
BovineCrab:
The trouble is 2020 was, not only a short season, but Smyly’s injury limited him still further. You’re putting a lot of value on just 26 1/3 innings, a very, very, small sample for a pitcher, pitching in a pitcher-friendly park BTW. But over his career he’s been about average. A 101 ERA+ for a career is about as average as you can get.
His health is a concern. In 7 years in the majors he’s averaged just 102 IP per season. He pitched over 150 innings just twice. 153 in 2014, and 175 1/3 in 2016.
He has value, especially as a lefty. And as a Giant’s fan I wish they had been able to re-sign him. But not for $11M. Clearly, the Braves had to overpay to get him.
Nope. Mr. beer and chicken can go somewhere else.
What a ridiculous comment. After all he did for the team, and his inspirational story… you reduce him to a media churned non story which in essence was a franchise wide failure. Sad.
No – he pretty much sucks
So he’d be an upgrade over matt Hall / Dana KICKHAM / Joe Hesketh / whatever Sox prodded out to be slaughtered last year?
Lester is a 37 year old bp machine at this point. Only a desperate/bad team would sign him. He really should just retire.
false
what lester is at this point in his career is a bridge between coaches and young players. i think a team on the cusp of getting to the playoffs would be wise to pick him up can eat innings on the back end and can take the younger tor guys and help them get through the rough games.
For the sake of nostalgia? May as well go after Mike Yaz, which a lot of Sox fans also wanted. Lester left Boston under bad terms. Let’s be real. Theo tampered with Lester, offering him the moon if he signed with the Cubs. So Jon listened to the one obligatory Boston offer, threw a tantrum and sold his house. Does that sound like someone who wanted to “stay” in Boston?
Rough time to be a cub fan.
Ah boohoo they at least won a championship. The artists formally known as the Indians dont even have that to hang their hats on.
You beat me to it. I’m an Indians fan that will probably always hold a grudge about 2016, so whenever I hear about how bad the Cubs have it, I think that at least they won that title. (I’m still very salty about it and I will fully admit to it lol)
The Indians aren’t really in any better of a position and they still have their drought going.
Cleveland, albeit a very long time ago did win two world series titles. When they were playing the cubs in ’16, they may have been the two longest droughts going.
The new phone books here!! The new phone books here!!
“I was born a poor black child”
What’s your name? Is it S***head? It is?
Mr. S***head, Sir!
Looie, Great Steve Martin reference
Yes . Just traded away their best pitcher for a bag of garbage
Lester will sign a discount one-year deal and Ross will be player-manager as his personal catcher.
Alzolay can deal. Still need a 3-4 level starter until Marquez is ready. The Cubs pipeline is better than many fans think
Get real. They have nothing for prospects.
Cubs farm system is a lot better than people are giving them credit for. They have a lot of young talent (even more so with the Padre trade).
Davis didn’t enter prospect rankings with much love but this guy, since devoting himself to baseball, has blossomed into a potential superstar!
I’m not all that high on Marquez as a starting pitcher but I do think he has a future as an elite closer if he can tighten up his mechanics.
A lot has been mentioned about the Cubs inability to develop pitchers but most fans fail to realize that a couple years ago the Cubs started the “pitch lab” and since then, the results have been extremely promising. Marquez came out of nowhere, Azolay benefited greatly, they have a ton of high velocity arms with plus secondary pitches that should at the very least develop into some high leverage relievers.
I don’t follow a lot of farm systems but the Cubs have a ton of boom or bust talent in their farm. I personally think Nwogu is going to be an absolute monster. Another guy that just recently fully started focusing on baseball and his results have show, his swing is night and day different from his first year at Michigan to his last year, defense was improved, speed is insane, super intelligent, freaky athletic, best exit velocity in the 2020 draft. Looks a lot like Soler in my opinion with a higher ceiling.
Agreed!
Cubs farm system has really improved big time, it is no joke and this time it is mixed with pitching prospects and some really good ones. Just need to give it some time.
The 4 guys they just added, are not nobodies too, there is really good potential with those guys.
what lester is at this point in his career is a bridge between coaches and young players. i think a team on the cusp of getting to the playoffs would be wise to pick him up can eat innings on the back end and can take the younger tor guys and help them get through the rough games.
Unless he takes like a $5M deal I don’t see a reunion, given that it was a $15M decision to buy him out.
Where the Cubs gonna get $5M, Lol
LOL!
I might have picked up the option and hope for a short season. Owner must feel good about a full season.
Sign him. Cubs are not contending for a while, he can provide some leadership for the kids. Heck, even at a 5 era, he’d still be their number three.
I hope Alzolay can figure things out, good stuff but that does not automatically equate to success; ditto Marquez.
I wouldn’t give the guy anything more than a minor league deal.
Well then you won’t be obtaining his services
Dynamite Drop In Monty is that you?
Shhhh don’t tell any1
Glad to have you back. I was like “wait a minute, I know someone who use to be on this site that posted classic lines from comedy.”
At best. Spring training cut in week 3
Time to come home for a farewell tour Jon…
Agreed. Henry and Chaim after Chaim need to show a sign of good faith to Sox fans who are all kind of scratching their domepeices wondering what the future holds. Sure, Lester won’t move the needle for the 2021 squad… but they desperately need someone to eat innings and even if Jon pitches below league average he’d be given standing ovations [virtually, perhaps]
Seems like Sox are waiting and seeing on FA pitching, much like the rest of the league. But they are salivating for 2.5 guys to just plug in and make starts. Sure Odoirrizi may be more reliable and Kluber may be a sexier signing but again, Sox probably won’t be competing. So it comes down to just making a move that can appease the fan base for a season. Bring him on board! I’m so hungry I could eat a sandwich from a gas station.
Good faith for Sox fans? This would not be the move.
Personally, I liked the university. They gave us money and facilities, we didn’t have to produce anything! You’ve never been out of college! You don’t know what it’s like out there! I’ve WORKED in the private sector. They expect *results*.
You can eat fresh at Subway.
I think Henry may be the owner that finally says F it and goes on a spending frenzy.
The Jays are good, the Yankees are good but the Red Sox have Sale coming back, They have JDM, Verdugo, Devers and Bogarts…. Upgrade second base (Tommy LaStella), go all in on Springer, sign a couple starting pitchers and you are right there. Maybe forgo Springer and LaStella and stick it to the Yankees with DJ. I think DJ would be a very good fit for Fenway (not as good as yankee stadium) and he is a fantastic leader.
If predictions on this site are anywhere near correct, I’d take TJ Walker at 8 million AAV and either Mike Minor or JA Happ for 6 million and call my rotation good.
Lester, go back to the Red Sox and end your career. We will always love you in Chicago but will love you more if you ride off into the sunset some place else.
I hate to see the Cubs not spend to improve this team. All it needed prior to selling off Darvish is a couple minor tweaks to the offense, a third starter that could be had for relatively cheap and a solid bullpen piece.
I still think, with minimal investment the Cubs could be contenders, As mentioned with the two starters above, sign Wong, trade for Merrifield, bring back Jeffers or Kintzler, Cubs would be adding all of 30 million in payroll… subtract Darvish and Caratini that is closer to 6 million and it’s a competitive enough team to win the Central and scrappy enough to make noise in the playoffs.
Merrfield, Happ, Wong, would irritate the heck out of pitchers with their patient, grind it out approach at the plate. Bryant and Rizzo too historically grind out long at bats. The middle infield would be a vacuum between Baez and Wong, Rizzo is arguably the best defender in the game at first also.
The above mentioned team would look a lot like the 2016 Championship team, Merrfield playing the role of Fowler at lead off, Wong the role of Ben Zobrist providing the professional at bats and with stellar defense and pitchers who will let the best defense in the game play behind them.
Minor signed with KC about two weeks ago. I think he’ll do well for them. Would have made a good Cub.
That is right, Minor will benefit from the larger ballpark in KC. KC has made some pretty surprising moves, I was stunned to see Carlos Santana ink that contract.
More than a couple problems with this plan:
1) Mike Minor is off the market (KC)
2) The Cubs are looking to cut payroll, not add to it. Even with the money saved on the Darvish deal and the Schwarber non-tender, they aren’t going to pay Wong the $7M+ he will require to join a team this year. Too much money for their budget and the position.
3) KC has stated multiple times that they have zero interest in trading Merrifield. They value his skills, leadership and most importantly his affordable contract. KC only moves him for a king’s ransom. The Cubs don’t have the type of plug & play prospects that KC would require in return anyways.
4) I think Happ will get more than $6M/yr, but he would be a good buy low addition for the Cubs (and 29 other teams too). I’m not sold on Taijuan Walker though. He had a good run for the shortened 60 game season last year but he really hadn’t done much over the last 3-4 seasons when available pre & post injury. They could do better than Walker, maybe a Garrett Richards type instead?
The good news in all of this is that the NL Central is still there for the taking. People are underestimating the impact that Davies is going to have as well. They make it sound like the lost Darvish for 4 young prospects. At worst, Davies provides 75% of what Yu provides next season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Davies ends up having a better overall season than Darvish does, due to Yu’s propensity to go on the IL. The Cubs need to add (2) affordable pitchers, a decent OF and maybe a 2B. Then run with the mix of veterans & kids and see what happens.
Cubs need the cheapest best value they can get at 2b lf. Sign 2 or 3 of the cheapest upside pitchers. Archer Hamels Felix. They didn’t lose much with Yu. I like the odds of their big 3 hitters being better this year.
Personally I would trade anyone I could for anywhere in between the bell and darvish haul. Limited fans is perfect time to do a rebuild retool. Can always sign these guys back in 22 or one of the shortstops.
Lester signs with the Red Sox for a single season and returns to the Cubs on his final season before hanging up the cleats.
Lester now should work for pride and enjoyment of the game or call it a day. He is set money wise and some club certainly would spend 3 to 5 million on a chance he rebounds.
Not a fan of Lester but the ball is in his court !
I typically think workers should work for the value they produce rather than as a good will gesture to billionaires.
Cubs are either waiting out the market or not spending. My hunch is the latter.
They’ll spend a little. I for see one decent SP for them.
That would be a first since they signed Darvish. We can thank Julianna for Kimbrel.
Severely overhyped.
He pretty much sucks at this point in his career. All name no game!
No hard feelings about being paid 10 million dollars not to work? I can totally get that.
Daddy, buy me a baseball team, please Daddy. I’m a real good business man and I don’t know diddly about baseball but please Daddy I won’t destroy this toy like all the others.
I read this to the cadence Of bohemian rhapsody
If he doesn’t return to the cubs. I think he does home and signs with the Mariners. He’s from Tacoma. They can use a veteran pitcher
He lives near Atlanta Georgia, I don’t know he would like to be that far away, but you never know.
I think he returns to the Cubs on the cheap and has a farewell tour and be a mentor to the young pitchers (Marquez, Carraway, Alzolay, Abbot and Thompson) in 2021 and becomes a coach on Ross staff in 2022.
Patches O’Houlihan:
I agree. Lester re-signs. Plus, he even cited Chicago’s proximity to Atlanta, as one of the reasons why he turned down more money from SF.
I knew he had a house in Atlanta. I figured he had one in Tacoma as well. I hope he does re-sigm with the cubs.
I’d be into that little sub-plot for 2021.
I don’t see any reason for him to hang it up quite yet, unless he just wants to have the feeling of still being somewhat “on top” when he goes out.
And if he has a bad year in the sog, people can just kind of LOL it so not too much ego involved there. I’d love to see him giving tips to the young mariners pitchers too.
It’s absurd for the Cubs not to re-sign Lester, & I don’t mean that because he’s probably going to be any good or anything.
But he was good enough in 2020 — on paper — for the average fan to support to re-signing him.
JL will probably give them some small discount. I assume the value to him of not selling a house buying a new house and learning a new city is likely to be $1m at least. I’m basing that on his lifetime earnings so far of >100m, and this being the clear end of his career. Not to mention all the good memories of chicago he surely has.
And the Cubs are clearly not really planning to compete in 2020 unless they get lucky, and yet they are trying not to make the fans think that.
How much better a reunion could there be? What Cubs fan will really complain if Lester throws 150 innings for the Cubs next year, even if they are with a 5 ERA? They will say, “well, we shouldn’t bring him back next year”
But he is way too beloved on the north side for most fans to actually be upset about. He also has (some) high ceiling of putting in one more surprising quality year on the mound. I don’t personally think it will happen, but it’s certainly in the realm of reasonably possible.
And that’s precicely the type of value-buy good-luck contract the Cubs will need to bank on if they compete next year.
And if they don’t compete and Lester has a 6+ ERA? That probably helps them too. They could use the higher draft pick if they are already going to be bad.
—
Full disclosure, I’m a white sox fan. But I have a lot less ill will for the Cubs than most. I actually even (sometimes) root for them.
As a Cubs fan, who feels similarly about the Sox as you do about the Cubs, I 100% agree. They should resign him regardless. And I appreciate through all the animosity on this site that you can just be unbiased about the two Chicago teams and just love the game.
I also want to mention that contrary to what this site and its commentators may think and say, most of my Sox/Cubs friends feel the same. Not sure why so many hate one side or the other.
You’re the first person to advocate signing a guy to make them worse so they draft higher. What is wrong with you?!
I see Madden making a pitch for him to come to LAA.
if the Angels finally get a ground-ball oriented lefty AFTER they lose the best defensive shortstop in baseball, well. SMH.
That would almost be as ironic as if they make the playoffs finally and Mike Trout is on the IL.
Pssh. Take him, make an already bad team, worse!
Time to let him go, nothing left in his pitches , we already paid him 10 Million to go, WAKE UP CUB FANS, the Ricketts don’t care , their concern is losing billionaire tax deductions , the Cubs mean nothing to them .
We don’t need Lester, historical value aside he is nothing more than a nostalgic pick that would be more of a sentimental signing at this point than a value signing. Yes he helped get us a WS but time to move on….if nothing else sign a #5 that we can help grow/mold.
Maybe Cubs should see if Edwin Jackson is available.
He’s speed dial #6 for them.
Wow he had a 25 million dollar option?! That was a no-brainer decline. I think he’s going year to year from this point on. Probably incentive-laden deals on fringe contending teams. His overall game has deteriorated pretty significantly over the years!