9:19pm: The Astros have made a “strong” offer to McCullers, and they’re “deep” in talks with him, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes.
5:37pm: Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr., who’s in the last year of his contract, tweeted last month that he hadn’t heard from the Astros about an extension, but that has changed. According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the Astros have made a long-term offer to the Boras Corporation client. Details of the proposal are unknown, and Heyman adds that it’s unclear whether the two sides will get a deal done.
A career-long Astro, McCullers made his major league debut with the club in 2015 and has since produced quality results. The 27-year-old owns a 3.70 ERA/3.61 SIERA with above-average strikeout and walk percentages of 26.4 and 9.3, respectively. The problem, if there is one, is that McCullers hasn’t been particularly durable in the bigs. He topped out at 128 1/3 innings in 2018 and has accrued just 508 2/3 frames during his career.
McCullers underwent Tommy John surgery before 2019, causing him to miss all of that season, but he did get through last year unscathed. He rebounded from the procedure to finish second among Astros in starts (11) and third in innings (55), recording a 3.93 ERA/3.95 SIERA and a sterling 59.7 percent groundball rate along the way.
Despite the health issues that have dogged him in the majors, McCullers should do well on his next contract. His track record and age should make him one of the most appealing starters on the open market, but the Astros may prevent him from getting there. Of course, the Astros also have a few other high-profile free agents-to-be – including righties Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander and shortstop Carlos Correa – so general manager James Click & Co. have a lot of work to do over the next several months.
5 yrs/$55M.
He’s the Aaron Hicks of pitchers and is probably worth the risk of a similar deal. In a good year can be an All-Star. Can put up above average production consistently…when healthy.
The asterisks are banging the can softly on this one.
Not even a Astros fan. Gotham so how did trash can banging make the mighty Yankees score just 1 earned run in 10 innings against McCullers Jr in the NLCS in 2017?
@freddie
The reading & comprehension level on this site is unbelievable! Maybe you should re-read my post & think about it longer then 2 seconds, just a thought. Oh,btw, the crime dog DEFINITELY belongs in the HOF.
I understood Fred clearly. The Yankees couldn’t touch McCullers and he threw what 27 straight curve balls? He made the mighty yanks look foolish. Houston should definitely extend him especially since hearing he has another pitch.
The dude is just pathetic and dedicates his life to crying about the Astros on message boards any time there’s something about them. Sad.
Exactly! The Yankees knew what pitch was coming and still couldn’t hit it. Lol
When have the Yankees played in the NLCS?
Not just that: Yankees scored 3 runs in 4 games at MMP. Hard to win when you don’t score.
I may know a lot about the Astros, but I want to know what true Stros’ fans think his potential is.
I’d go 4/60 or 5/70. As for Correa, no higher than 7/210 and that’s the max.
As for his potential, when healthy he’s a solid #2 starter. I can’t imagine he’d be more but that’s damn good as it is. He’s got two really good pitches and an average third pitch with his cutter. But he’s hurt a lot and as you get older, injuries tend to increase if you’re already injury prone, not decrease.
Ace potential finally healthy, has added a few wrinkles like frisbee-looking curve in offseason. Always comes in top condition, fierce competitor sold out for the city & championships. Can the arm hold up? He pushed it after 1st year back & got about 85%, granted it was the full 18 months til he got on the mound.
If HOU offered 5 yrs, that’s fair to both sides.
Based on what’s coming down pike prospect pitching; Garcia Abreu Solomon Ivey Valdez Paredes Javier Solis Dubin Brown, etc, etc. McCullers will be a good anchor through 2026. They have Emanuel and Martes making comebacks, maybe Whitley will have the same kind of success after surgery.
Listen to McCullers on McHugh’s podcast. He wants to be a frontline, sub-3 ERA guy. Will probably settle in around 3.5 FIP overall, Should be a popular re-sign.. It stands currently in stark contrast and I think it’s the right move, to no news on Correa’s offer.
He’s absolutely a solid 2 when healthy, but I hate his attitude. He thinks he is on par with all the elite pitchers and I bet that will translate to what he asks for. I’m guessing he’ll look for Wheeler type money.
I’m a fan. And part of that is his desire to stay in my hometown. for my beloved Astros. however, I’m concerned with his tenacity to disappear when it matters most. Take game 7 against the Ray’s last year. I was expecting a dominant performance. Didn’t happen. a 3 to 4 year deal worth no more than $12-15 mil per year and I’m in. otherwise! take your pennies and go elsewhere
Funny what they call “quality results” nowadays.
League average ERA in 2019 was like 4.50. He has a career 110 ERA+ which I would consider a quality mark.
Quality for a #3 starter when average when he is on his A game he’s a rlly good #2.
I still enjoy the memory of him throwing 30 straight curves in game 7 of the 2017 alcs.
Can’t see a boras client taking a fair valued contract. A guy that’s already had a serious injury and rarely isnt injured. I’d pass if I was stros unless the deal is what he is worth not what he will likely be paid.
From 2015 to 2018, fWAR of 7.2 ranks him 42nd among starting pitchers and last year, 2020, 47th. Totally fine with reasonable length and AAV-just don’t overpay which Click won’t do.
I thought click was smarter than this to offer McCcullers an extension.
He has around 84/mil coming off his books at the end of the year.
Bundy(laa),kim(stl,pineda(minn) will be fa’s and better investments than McCullers who will break down.
C.seager and others to fill the roster.
I’m not an Astros fan but I think McCullers, when healthy, is better than the three pitchers you just pointed out.
Translation: Jon Heyman, Scott Boras’ stooge, has heard from Boras about the offer, which Boras doesn’t think is high enough, so Heyman will report on it and rile up public pressure on the Astros to get the deal done.
Wonder what a quality starter, that avg about 5.5 inn per start can get??
If he has a big season, I could see him getting something close to or even beyond $100 million on the free agent market. I don’t know if I would even go that high for him considering his injury history, but he’s one of the very few top tier starters in next season’s free agent class, and age is still on his side.
He’s probably more of a second-rank than a top tier pitcher. That’s still useful, but not crazy good.
I’d say that’s fair, but he has long had borderline elite stuff. Health and inconsistency have obviously been issues for him, but he could still put it altogether and be that top tier type pitcher in my opinion.
His upside is that of an ace. His problem is health and inconsistency… every year he has a period where he is rocked and it skews his numbers.
People forget how young McCullers is still. He’s got elite stuff and has been able to spend 3 of the last 4 years being developed by Strom. I think him being offered now may be more of a respect thing. I don’t see Click being willing to offer him anything he’d accept before the season. After a healthy productive season, both sides will likely get to work on a realistic/fair deal. It would be a shock if he got anything over 4/75, but I’d love to see him stay in Houston.
As far as Correa, I’m indifferent and would be fine either way. If he gets a 10 year deal over 250 mill I’d be unhappy. Staying flexible financially is much more valuable than locking a guy down and hoping he can A. Stay healthy, B. stay productive over the length of the deal. 5-6 years at most
Seager and Correa are on par with one another talent wise and with their extensive, early and prolonged injury history.
Seager has been trending up the past couple of seasons and Correa trending down. However, I do agree that when fully healthy and playing with some consistency that he is on the same tier as Lindor, Seager, etc. His ceiling is as high as any of them, but his injuries and inconsistency will prevent him from getting a mega contract.
McCullers would do well to stay in Houston. Odds are whatever the Astros are offering is probably more than he would get in free agency. Plus a Pitcher with his injury history would be unwise to gamble on himself
No way If Im Hou,
Survive a year without hitting the DL and we can talk afterwards
Exactly the type of player Id be weary on committing too until the last minute with all the data and health reports in hand. Decent depth in next years Sp free agents unlike this year as well
There are many ways to construct a contract. A lower guaranteed salary with incentives can cover the risk. So can insurance.
Id still take the field over Lance…you can include all those same stipulations in a newbie to the org
I’m sure Boras will be asking for a 5+ year deal valued over $100M, but the Stros probably don’t want to go over $17M-$18M per year. Maybe they agree to a 5/$85M deal with incentives (innings pitched) that can get him up to $100M in total contract value if he hits them. If McCullers is able to pitch 175+ innings, he’ll be worth the $20M/yr.
To NOT reach free agency as a Boras client. It’s definitely over $100M. I’d guess higher AAV, 5 years.
Dorothy… nice prediction! Assuming you posted that before he signed his extension, that is.
Nobody will complain about them keeping him & Correa in Houston for life. Go get em!
You can never have too much pitching.
The Astros should gamble on him. His value is likely as low as it will get.
He is a good citizen and wants to stay in Houston.
He also is an extremely talented starter who is still young.
If he goes the entire year without getting hurt the price goes up 50%.
Take advantage of him wanting to be here, use the injury history as a reason to keep it at 4/48 plus incentives and maybe even vesting option based on starts and/or innings.
Zack Wheeler seems like a good comp. A potential front-end starter who showed flashes of brilliance but was held back by injuries. Wheeler got a 5/118. Maybe McCullers gets a little less as he actually made it to free agency. So 5/100, but with an opt out after year 2.