Although the Mets missed the playoffs for the fourth straight year in 2020, they look as if they’ll head into the upcoming regular season as a popular pick to contend. New owner Steve Cohen’s arrival early in the winter brought a great deal of optimism for Mets fans, who suffered for years under the yoke of the Wilpons. Cohen has largely lived up to the hype since taking over, as he oversaw an active offseason in which the Mets’ roster looks to have taken steps forward.
The Mets did lose second baseman Robinson Cano for the year because of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, and they didn’t reel in any of Trevor Bauer, George Springer or J.T. Realmuto in free agency, but they still ponied up for several notable names in recent months.
Shortstop Francisco Lindor, an elite player for a large portion of his career, and quality right-hander Carlos Carrasco came over in a major trade with Cleveland. James McCann, who ranked second behind Realmuto among free-agent catchers, signed a four-year, $40MM deal to assume the reins as the Mets’ starting backstop. Righty Marcus Stroman, who opted out of last season thanks to COVID-19, stuck around when he accepted the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, and they filled out their season-opening rotation last month with the signing of fellow RHP Taijuan Walker to a three-year, $23MM guarantee late. Reliever Trevor May, lefty Joey Lucchesi, infielder Jonathan Villar, and outfielders Kevin Pillar and Albert Almora Jr. were also among those who became Mets during the offseason.
Despite the loss of Cano, the Mets look as if they’ll have a high-end offense in 2021 with Lindor and McCann complementing holdovers Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis. The starting staff also looks good with Carrasco, Stroman and Walker joining ace Jacob deGrom and David Peterson (and don’t forget that Noah Syndergaard will return from his Tommy John recovery during the summer). The bullpen appears to be more of a question mark, especially with Seth Lugo having undergone elbow surgery last month, though the signings of May and lefty Aaron Loup should help New York’s cause.
There still could be room for further Mets acquisitions in the coming weeks, but for the most part, their roster looks set going into the new season. The team won 26 of 60 regular-season games and wound up last in the National League East in 2020, but thanks in part to its offseason, PECOTA projects a 93-win effort in 2021 and a first-place finish in a tough division that also features the Braves, Nationals, Phillies and Marlins. Are you buying the Mets as a playoff-caliber team?
(Poll link for app users)
Mets are vastly improved and I see them making the playoffs, but I’m taking the under for 3 reasons. 1. Tough division. I think Mets will get the Wildcard, but will suffer loses from tough competition. 2. Still some question marks. Love deGrom and Cookie, but after that there are potential issues with the rotation. The lineup struggled scoring runs last year. It may continue to do so again despite obvious improvements. Defense is also still a concern. 3. It takes awhile for teams to mesh. This is essentially a brand new team. They will compete. They will make the playoffs, but they won’t really click until 2022.
Just my opinion. Still a great squad.
I think they’ll be the 3rd best team in baseball but 93 still might be a hard ask in that division
Beat up on the Central, Rockies and Dbacks?
Win 54-56 games in division
20 games from the central
8 from Rockies and Dbacks
6 from a split with Dodgers and Padres
6 from interleague is
54+20+8+6+6 = 94-96 wins
+ if you get more than 66% from the Central games and Rockies and Dbacks you can win less from division
So you’re projecting they’ll have a 700+ winning % vs the rest of the nl east?
You and the Mets should be very fortunate if they managed to pull off 50 wins in the division. To think they will average 12-13 wins against those 4 teams is asking for quite a lot.
Yeah, but this is the kind of stuff we do in March. Nobody is injured. We all see the best possible outcomes for our team’s players. Hell, every squad in MLB is going to be tied for first in ~ a month.
When I do stuff like that I have the Yanks winning 100 games. So I get it.
It’s March: basketball tournaments, snow goose hunting, & dreaming about how good our baseball teams are. It all makes me want a nice big dip of some Red Man.
that’s not even realistic even in a best-case scenario for the Mets.
Sometimes, “realistic” is a lot less fun though, @darkside830.
@ Ducky Buckin Fent;
You got it! Fun is fun. Injuries and the usual unexpected individual player developments (good and bad) aside….
ALE can go any number of ways. All the teams have major holes. In the Mets case, it’s that awful defense. Lindor and McCann make it better, but that big OF and large foul ball territory patrolled by poor defenders at 1B, 3B, and LF hurts; and they’re missing a legitimate CF in a big OF. Only Conforto is a good ML defender, and Nimmo in CF is as bad as J.D.Davis playing anywhere.
Hard to be a division winner when you give an opposing ML team 4 and 5 outs an inning multiple times a game.
Mets are a smooth-as-butter 81-81 team this year…..
4 to 5 outs an inning multiple times a game? Might be a bit of an overstatement. I get it there’s gonna be a lot of hate. I welcome it. Their 1b d is completely underrated. Alonso isn’t even slightly bad over there. There’s a reason why they will play Smith in left to accommodate his bat in the lineup. He adds way more than he will subtract. They added Pillar and Almora to replace Nimmo in CF when they have big leads. They have Guillerme and Villar to do the same at 3B. They have upgraded at SS from bottom of the league to top of baseball.
Let’s see how much their fielding affects their season. Last year the Mets didn’t win more games for a very very simple reason… They had Degrom, a rookie Peterson and a whole lot of awful pitching. Their starters went from top of the sport to a major problem. This year it can be said pretty plainly… If the Mets get at least 2 of Carrasco, Stroman, Syndergaard or Walker as well as continued solid success at the 5 spot from Peterson, they will be winning lots of series and I guarantee no team will want to play them in any postseason appearance. If they get all of their guys pitching well then they will go over 92. Their division is tough but if they are the best or on the level of the Braves then they will be the team winning those games more often than not and it’s the Mets that other teams will be dropping games to often.
Let’s see what happens.
Seems rational. It’s best you not elaborate.
They are overrated. Because they made a lot of moves everyone expects them to be amazing. They are basically the 2019 Phillies without the SI cover.
Two words: Pitching depth.
I love reading yoyr posts. Makes me smile as a 39 year old Mets fan that not everyone will stick to the LOLMets meme forever
It’s just a matter of being objective, man. I don’t like the Phillies or Angels, but when they do good things I’ll say it’s a good thing. I’ll also call the Rangers out for making a bad move or whatnot. Just a matter of calling it the way it is.
Mets pitching has been radically overrated for years.
Last year I read in pre-season that Porcello, Wacha, and a healthy Matz gave them starting pitching deep depth.
They got way more and better than Porcello and Wacha now. It’s a new regime.
that was probably an article before the season started and you had already lost Stroman and Thor as your 2 and 3 with hopefully a porcello bounce back at worst innings eater and wild cards with Matz, Wacha, and potentially Peterson one of their top 10 ranked prospects filling out the rotation and a bunch of fillins like oswalt and others.
With thor and stro gone, Porcello then became your number 2 pitcher and you had wildcards for your 3-5. It would be the same as if just Cole went out for the yankees this year except it would be 1-5 are all wildcards. .
Carrasco and Stroman are without a doubt better than Porcello Matz or Wacha in the twilight of his career. Add in Walker, Peterson, and May for the 4 and 5 spots and it is a very solid rotation. It doesnt have the wow factor potential wise the young Mets rotation had. However, it will more than likely be much more consistent and serviceable enough to easily contend for at least a wild card spot.
What does this have to do with this year? Who cares what you read?
Not even close. Im a Mets fan and i was shocked at PECTOTA and Fangraphs predictions, but still expect 89 at the minimum pending health. I try to temper expectations of my fellow fans, and honestly, if the Mets dont make the post season in 2021 and they are healthy they should be embarrassed.
Everyone expects? Nah, folks promising a super team are in the minority. Most expectations are for much improvement but tempered
Better than the Braves by a smidge, and with that competition I think it’s only over by a hair. Greatly improved this off-season though, and I expect an entirely new culture to arise in Queens this season.
Let me put it this way, I hope they’re trying to figure out a way to bring Callaway back in some capacity so after they implode again it’ll give Mutts fans something to talk about, cause I got a feeling it’s gonna be a long, hot summer.
92 wins and winning the division
89
81.5?
I always guess under on these type of polls. Not that I am a pessimist. Just odds are teams are more likely to underperform than over perform. I do think the Mets have the best team in the division.
I could see the argument for over or under. I think they’re built up in all the right places to be able to be over, but I can definitely understand somebody picking under. Imo, it’s more likely that it is under, but purely because that division is such a powerhouse. The Nats and Braves haven’t gone nowhere, and the Marlins and Phillies aren’t too shabby either. The reason I’d say under is purely because of competition. The division is stacked.
I think just the fact that it’s actually a debate shows how much they’ve done.
Also, 93 wins (essentially the Over) is a *lot* of wins. A lot of things need to go right for any team to win 93 games.
Braves are the best team in the NL East. Mets/Phillies/Nationals will play for the wild card.
If the Mets win the division, it will not be because they are better..
it is because the Braves handed them the division because the team couldn’t care less about winning.
Um, wut?
You heard the man.
okay MadBumNLCS
Don’t forget 200kpseudostar and a few others, lol
How so? Resigned Marcell Ozuna, signed Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton to fortify the rotation. Brought in a pretty decent bench bat in Jake Lamb. Bullpen is pretty lefty-heavy, but the lefties are pretty good like Will Smith, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek. Not to mention they have some pretty decent prospects like Cristian Pache and Drew Waters coming up.
It makes sense if his post read – “couldn’t care less about winning a title”
That I believe. They had the best farm system by a mile past few seasons. They let almost all those dudes fizzle out vs selling at peak value and pushing for a title
This is the dumbest comment I’ve read and that says something so give yourself a hand buddy!
.500 season
Mets fans hound Cohen, he signs top free agent after season, mets go .510, Cohen fire GM, Manager asks Wilpons on how to deal with the hate.
Wilpons tell him to call Colorado & ask them if they’re not too blazed up AGAIN.
1986
Mets winning 90 games is realistic. Went with the under but it would be no surprise if they reached 95 wins. They could come in first, they could come in 5th. That is why you play the games. NL East should be fun this year.
I have the under.. they aren’t better than the Braves and the Phillies and Nationals will give them a run for their money. Even the Marlins won’t be a pushover.
I’m taking the under. The NL East is going to be tough and the division winner might only wind up around the 90-92 win mark. I also don’t think the Mets are better than the Braves who I have winning the division. I could see the Mets finishing as high as 2nd and getting a wild card or finishing 4th and missing the postseason
That division is so tough I think I’d take the under on every team in it. Teams will be in a dogfight night after night.
90-93 wins seems like where they’ll end up if things go right. Knowning it’s the Mets though, they’re a bigger embodiement of Murphy’s Law than the Pirates.
I’m sorry to tell you. But this Mets team has enough talent that if everything goes right they are above 100 wins. 90-93 seems like a normal predictions where everything is normal not “everything goes right”
Stop putting words in my mouth. I said “90-93 wins seems like where they’ll end up if things go right”. Not if everything goes right. Of couse not everything is going to go right. It’s baseball. It’s a 162 game season where anything can happen.
Hold on to that, @metsfan22. Your optimism is awesome, serious. & the mets look pretty good.
But there are ways to believe in & love your squad while not being insulting towards other fans.
It’s certainly not always easy to do.
But when accomplished it’s what’s known as; “class”.
Very hard to win 100 games. You need 2 teams to be pushovers. The NL East’s bottom teams aren’t pushovers (on-paper, for now).
Ah.
Good ole Murphy the optimist.
I got the Metropolitans at 90-72.
72-90
Yeah, that works as well…
I could see them winning 90-93, or 70-73. This team could have a lot of variation.
You’re acting like 90-93 is the ceiling lol.
And you continue to act like every member of the organization walks on water.
Lindor love affair will end quickly when he continues to not hit in the clutch
World Series or Bust.
So bust it is then
Lol. Atleast that’s the moto for one NY team. Yankee fans gonna celebrate their 2021 wild card birth like its the World Series title
The Mets have actually already won 95 games in 2021 and averaged 103 over the next five years. 4 rings total. New dynasty.
@MetsFan22- no way your Mets are beating the Braves, Padres, or Dodgers. They will not even sniff at a World Series. They struck out on Realmuto, Springer, LeMahieu, Bauer and others. They needed at least 2 of those big free agents to get past the Braves. They fell short. At best they are a 90 win team and a Wild Card Team in 2021.
Mets will have one of the best rotations in MLB(at least outside of the NL West). Still don’t think their lineup will scare anyone and their bullpen is mid-level at best, but I still believe in Sugar. The NL East will be battle in 2021.
I see the lineup as a strength. A lot of questions, sure. Can Nimmo stay healthy? Can Conforto continue to improve? Can Dom Smith maintain? Can Alonso return to rookie form? But a lineup with Nimmo up top and then Conforto, Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, Smith… that seems pretty good to me.
You should look closer at that lineup. This is s Mets fan whos seen it all, and even still kept my shea season ticket package when they were in the dumps. Its very deep, and if the league quit beibg stupid and instituted the DH for good,
That moves Smith to 1B, Nimmo to LF, Alonso to DH and cleans up defense at 3 positions instantly.
Mets will be like the 2012 Marlins.
Mets fan here…
Let’s predict what can go wrong (as a Mets fan, you learn about this annually).
1). Alonso mires like much of last year to hit in the clutch.
2). Conforto doesn’t do well going the other way this year or gets pull happy and hits .250.
3). Dom Smith regresses playing LF everyday or gets injured.
4). Lindor hits .250 and has trouble acclimating to NY and his big free agent walk year.
5). McNeil gets injured.
6). McCann hits like more like Wilson Ramos last year and not like the stud he was in hitter friendly Comiskey Park.
7). The bullpen looks more like the Phillies than that of the Braves.
Also, the Braves’s biggest issue last year was starting pitching and this year looks like this:
Fried
Soroka
Anderson
Morton
Smiley
The one thing that worries me the most, is the Squirrel getting injured. I think the Polar Bear will be fine and Smith will still be productive. I also worry about Lindor, but I think he will be fine. I just worry about extending him before we can make sure he can play in NY.
This whole “playing in NY” and clutch nonsense really needs to be taken out back and put out of its misery. We here in NYC act like other cities dont have cameras or fans in the seats. Lets get real here, the “pressure of playing in NY is such garbage.
Yea it’s absolutely ridiculous. Players’ talent doesn’t suffer cuz NY is so spectacularly intense. Dumb, tired, arrogant narrative.
Is McNeil the most underrated player in MLB? He’s sensational and an elite ballplayer, but no one’s really saying that about him!
@stanthefan –
You’re not doing it right lol. It’s the New mets. Look around MLB. The mets are actually doing things that look fairly savvy. & – for a change – there are a lot of other teams doing much stupider things.
mets look like a 90 win team.
Take a deeeeeeep breath. In with the good air out with the bad.
I love the optimism, but I’ve been hurt so many times.
I definitely like the way the Mets are headed on a few fronts. Obviously depth is looking so much better. They seem to be trying to prioritize better defense with McCann and Lindor acquisitions. And at least we know they have resources.
I’ve always liked Alderson’s vision to adjust when options 1 or 2 don’t work, he gets creative. But unlike under the ‘Coupons’, he has more than just prospects to work with…
stanthefan:
I wouldn’t count McCann as any kind of defensive improvement.
@ stan –
attaboy
tad, McCann is definitely a defensive improvement. You gotta realize just how awful Ramos was.
Agree Cosmo. McCann has done a lot of work to improve his defense. Was at 4drs in 2019 and 5 in 2020, while throwing out runners at over 30% while Ramos was around 12%. He was rated highly when it came to framing, even though that fluctuates yoy it’s still good.
Ramos can be painful to watch behind the dish sometimes.
Anyone predicting outcomes is guessing about injuries. That’s just silly. Lose a 6-7 WAR player, and a 95 win club is a 90 win club.
I love the Mets, but I’d rather have ATL’s stud AAA depth than our AAAA depth.
I don’t think 6-7 WAR is actually worth 5 wins. That’s not how the stat works.
That is though. A 6-7 war player contributes that many wins to a team compared to a replacement. Losing a 6-7 war player will require a replacement. Assuming that replacement should be on a major league team and is average, then the difference could be expected to be in the realm of 5 wins.
The best thing to happen to the Mets this offseason was Cano testing positive for performance enhancing drugs again. The league should allow them to terminate that contract permanently in my opinion. The second best thing to happen to them was not shelling out all the money to Bauer. Yes, I would have liked him on our team, but we need to extend Lindor and Conforto, as well as Thor. They still need to upgrade at 3rd and CF, but overall they should have a good productive team this year.
#Silent Bob23
Spot on!
100% agree with you. Mets fans complaining Cohen didnt spend stupid money just to spend need to zip it. Theybmade savvy moves, bumped up payroll, and added a top 5 player in baseball… a switch hitting slugging shortstop who plays A+ defense. Oh yeah and also got Carrasco. Last year we didnt have Stroman and Thor. This team has tons of potential. Its funny how so many will praise the Jays and Pads (who i think both are great teams now) but still parrot the LOLMets meme, these aren’t the same guys who underperformed in the past. “curses of the bambino and billy goat” got destroyed by a smart and savvy GM. Im always a pessimistic Mets fan just from experiencing years like the early 90s and 2008-2010. Sandy turned the team around quickly and I have faith that hell do it again. #LFGM
So the 2 best things that happened in Mets offseason were flukes that were not according to plan. Yup ! Same ol Mets
What not according to plan? How do you know what their plan was? Gimme a break.
I have them at 92 wins. so under
All 5 teams in the AL East will finish above .500 but I can’t see any of them beating up on any of the other teams in the div, which we all know consists of the majority of games in any teams’ season, due to the unbalanced schedule.
So it will come down to who plays best against the West, Central and Interleague to see who finishes 1-4, Marlins are more than likely finishing last if no big injuries happen, but I have them at .500 no matter what position on the ladder. All 5 AL East teams are very good and any one of them can make it to the postseason.
RD 3 NL East
First 2 rds have been a disappointment, maybe this year we get that epic 4 team Sept race
Mets with my eyes and heart but if it came to the wallet Im going ATL
Some sneaky production outta the Sp 4/5 spot from Philly would go a long ways
“Despite the loss of Cano”
How is this a loss?
They got Stroman next year with the money they saved on Cano alone and even some left over for a few million here and there for other pickups.
Without the DH they are going to hurt on defense. With a first baseman playing left field and a CF who is not plus a third-baseman in Davis with a bad DRS they should still bite the bullet and sign JBJ and push salary into the future.
If not you can’t expose 3 positions in the field and expect to go far.
That being said I am still very happy with the Tampons and Van Lunch-Wagon being gone and how about **** Pic Mickey being gone! 🙂
The Mets will hold their own but expect them to get better when Syndergaard joins the rotation again. They’ll only get stronger as the year progresses
LETS GO METS!!
I took the under. Mets will interesting but I’m not sure they have enough pitching behind deGrom, defensively they have issues and offensively may not be able to survive regression from Alonso, Smith, or McNeil
Las Vegas World Series odds as of today.
mets; +867
Braves: +1100
Phillies: +4167
Nationals: +4333
Marlins: +6000
Might be worth dropping a few bucks on the Fish. Imagine if they stunned everyone and won it all…
I actually like those odds on Philly & Nats lb per lb
Mets stink
really digging this team, but they could have put a big cherry on top if they signed Bauer.
Going to definitely be an interesting NL East & West for that matter. AL East & AL Central should be fun too.
I voted under. I’m thinking 88-89 wins. The over is expecting a lot. In their entire history, with all the great players they’ve had, they won over 93 or more only 7 times. The quality of the other teams in the division say 93+ is a tough ask. They’ve improved, but not that much.
I expect the Mets to be the Mets
I grew up in NY watching the NYM and the Milwaukee Braves The Braves are my Favorite Team and I think they will win the NLE again But I like the NYM and i am happy that my teams are both in the top 5 of the NL. Go figure my sister is a NYY fan.and they will also be up there in the AL
Division is very difficult, so I went under. Pen is still a little shaky for me. Betances? Diaz? Lugo is currently hurt… if pen pulls together they could win more than 92
The Mets added Lindor and Carrasco. They also get a full season of Stroman. Those are some key additions for their defense and possibly their offense if Lindor returns to form.
Walker and Peterson are quality for where they are in the rotation.
The Braves have the better balance but they look like the 2nd best team in a tough division.