Ole Miss right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, one of the top prospect in this summer’s draft class, will require Tommy John surgery after exiting last night’s start during the first inning, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports (Twitter link). He’ll be sidelined for the next 12 to 18 months while he recovers.
It’s a tough blow for the 21-year-old Hoglund, who has been excellent thus far in his junior season. Through 62 2/3 innings spread across 11 starts, the 6’4″, 220-pound righty has pitched to a 2.87 ERA while striking out 38.9 percent of his opponents against a 6.8 percent walk rate. Hoglund notched a 1.16 ERA and a stellar 37-to-4 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 innings in 2020 before the season was halted.
McDaniel’s most recent mock draft had Hoglund going eighth overall to the Rockies, while recent mocks from Baseball America and MLB.com had him going 10th to the Mets and 13th to the Phillies, respectively. BA ranked Hoglund as the No. 9 overall prospect in this year’s draft, while MLB.com had him tenth. It’s the second time Hoglund has entered the season as a high-profile draft prospect; the Pirates selected him with the No. 36 pick back in 2018, but he opted to honor his college commitment and did not sign. Pittsburgh received a comp pick the following year (used to select outfield prospect Sammy Siani).
The forthcoming Tommy John procedure doesn’t entirely dash Hoglund’s hopes of going in the first round. It’s fairly common for teams in the middle or back half of the first round roll the dice on injured potential top 10 talents whose stock has dipped a bit due to health concerns. McDaniel adds in reporting the unfortunate news on Hoglund that the injury will probably drop him to the 15 to 25 range on future attempts at forecasting the first round.
[Related: 2021 MLB Draft To Be 20 Rounds]
Hoglund becomes the second high-profile college starter to require Tommy John surgery this spring, joining LSU righty Jaden Hill, who sustained a torn UCL in early April. Both could yet come off the board early in this summer’s draft, particularly if there’s a team interested in cutting a deal to save some money on its top pick and then spending a bit more aggressively elsewhere down the board.
hopefully he falls to Philly.
He probably will. One MLB mock has him falling all the way to the Dodgers at #29
AGAIN! Biggest problem in baseball, folks.
It’s not. Even Sandy Koufax needed it. Just be thankful we live in an era where there it can be fixed and pitchers come back from it.
He’s lucky he’s having it before his pro career starts.
This is not how UCL repair works. You are spouting one of the biggest misconceptions around. It’s far preferable to not need TJ.
I’m pretty sure there were no national/local media platforms that reported injuries to minor leaguers/prospects 30-40 years ago.
I’m just saying we have access to more information in our current era. I don’t know the ratio of active pitchers that required TJ surgery over the years.
There’s a Google doc that lists every TJ surgery since the first one, almost 2,000 of them. I think it would just end your career prior to the 80’s when it started to become a little more common. The third one was 1981 and there were about 35 that decade.
Its better to get it early and not hen your in your prime or aging
The biggest problem in baseball is how dominant the pitching is. However, the two are probably connected.
Nah. Pitching had just now corrected for an over dominance of hitting the past half decade.
They might be connected. Changing mechanics so pitchers can throw hard and get more spin rate on pitches definitely seems to be causing more arm problems.
Guys throwing hard isn’t the issue. Changing pitching mechanics to get velocity with spin rate.
I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of
Pitch type averages through the years
Spin rate averages through the years
Compared to now a days.
I just dont think the elbow was designed to throw 95 mph pitches.
Would be zero percent surprised if Dodgers jumped on one of these two if still available when they pick… Mainly because they did the exact same thing before.
Me either. Most teams draft college arms with a plan to rush them to MLB. Dodgers have depth and time.
Dodgers have a history of striking big on injured college arms cough ** buehler ** cough
Granted they were both really late round picks and there was never really much of a chance either would sign but I still think sometimes about what if Buehler and Trae Turner had both signed with the Pirates out of high school instead of going to college.
Wow. I’d written how he’d likely be available for the Angels and a good pick.
Just writing we should draft him made him fall under our curse. Sorry Gunnar.
When Gunner found out the projection was for him to pitch in Coors, he had his roommate wack his arm with a lead pipe.
Just looking at his highlights, he looked pretty good. Hopefully this clears some things up, and he comes back strong. And ya, this definitely looks like a Dodgers’ pick.
It’s bad that I’m laughing at this, but that’s funny.
Washington Nationals have entered the chat
Rizzo sense tingling
He’s perfect for the Mets. Let’s just get the surgery out of the way – he checks the box.
Ty Madden is still sitting around having a terrific season while everybody is too busy looking at Kumar, Leiter, and Hoglund. I hope Hoglund can drop to a great organization late in the first round because I like his stuff, but I’m just saying there’s some great pitching prospects there that a lot of people are sleeping on.
I don’t think people are sleeping on Madden. Baseball America has him ranked as the No. 8 player in the draft — ahead of Hoglund at 9. MLB.com has him 9th, one spot ahead of Hoglund. (Both rankings pre-injury.) Both BA and MLB.com had Madden going ahead of Hoglund in their most recent mock drafts.
The Rockies and Angels pick back to back at 8-9 and both are in major need of pitching prospects.
This takes an arm off the board, likely leaving my squad out of the top 3 college arms.
What a great name
Not sure how jaden hill could even be considered a top pick with only 20 innings prior to this season, 30 innings this year to the tune of an ugly 6.93 era.
First time for everything, but this might be the one guy who regrets not signing with the Pirates.
He was selected 38th overall in 2018
He could go to Rays or Dodgers at the end of the 1st round as teams that dont really need pitching, but are taking long term value with the pick.
Unless he falls past 38 doubt he regrets the decision.
Doubtful. He’s probably still gonna get drafted higher and therefore get more money than the 36th pick the Pirates used on him. I was hoping both he and Nick Lodolo would have signed with the Bucs though. Adding the two of them to Priester, Tahnaj Thomas, Carmen Mlodzinski, Brennan Malone and rest of the pitching talent in the lower minors would be insane.
This is just a rite of passage for elite pitching prospects now.
As long as TJS #2 remains a death sentence for MLB careers, this is a horrible take. As are all the other ones “better now that later!”
No. Not better now. TJS has a shelf life until the UCL is far more likely to re-tear, assuming they’re still doing the same activities. That average is 12 years. I’m sure some beat this, it’s an average, but putting any potential “cap” on a pitchers career is not good