Gunnar Hoglund

The A’s entered the offseason with virtually no certainty in their rotation. Despite a host of trades aimed at acquiring pitching help throughout the course of their most recent rebuild, lefty JP Sears was the only prospect acquired who’s stepped up, stayed healthy, and pitched well enough to lock down a rotation job. Sears has hardly been an ace, but 64 starts and 353 innings of 4.46 ERA ball over the past two seasons will play. He’s not an exciting arm, necessarily, but Sears looks like a volume-based fourth starter with good command who’ll average 5 2/3 innings per outing and keep his club in the game more often than not. He’s a starting point.

In the months that have unfolded since, the Sacramento-bound A’s have made a pair of meaningful additions. Luis Severino signed a three-year, $67MM contract and immediately became the team’s top rotation arm upon doing so. Left-hander Jeffrey Springs came over from the Rays not long after, in a trade sending righty Joe Boyle, minor leaguers Jacob Watters and Will Simpson, and a competitive balance draft pick back to the Rays. There’s injury risk with both players — Severino averaged 42 innings per year from 2019-23; Springs missed most of 2024 recovering from UCL surgery — but both are quality arms when healthy. Springs, in particular, quietly turned in ace-caliber results in Tampa Bay from 2021-24.

That pair of additions gives the A’s a set top-three in the rotation, albeit somewhat by default at the moment. General manager David Forst has said he’s open to further additions and is hopeful of adding another starter. That comment came just over a month ago, however, and nothing has come to fruition (nor have there been any real rumblings connecting the A’s to available pitchers).

The A’s very much should add to this group if they’re intent on playing the role of a surprise contender, as many of their offseason dealings suggest. There are still several solid veteran arms available, both via free agency and trade. As things stand, it seems likelier by the day that they stick with what they have in-house. Let’s run through the options.

The Rule 5 Favorite

Mitch Spence, RHP: Spence might not have turned many heads with last year’s performance, but there aren’t too many Rule 5 picks who even make it through a whole season — let alone put themselves into legitimate competition for a rotation job the following year. Spence has done just that. The 26-year-old (27 in May) opened the 2024 season in a long relief role but pushed his way into rotation consideration with a nice start. He wound up making 24 starts and 11 long relief outings, working a total of 151 1/3 innings. Spence turned in a 4.58 ERA with a below-average 19.4% strikeout rate but strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.8% and 48.4%, respectively.

Unlike many rookie pitchers, Spence didn’t fade down the stretch; he got stronger. That’s surely due in part to the fact that he tossed a hearty 163 innings of Triple-A ball in 2023 prior to being taken by the A’s in the Rule 5. But Spence came out strong in the second half of the 2024 season, looking like a pitcher who’d found his footing. From July 20 through Sept. 17, Spence made 11 starts with a 3.66 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates didn’t make any huge gains, but he was throwing more sinkers and curveballs and getting far more grounders (and yielding fewer homers) as a result. He allowed nine runs in his final nine innings — a sour ending note — but Spence in many ways looked like a right-handed version of Spears.

What’s left of the Rebuild Arms

Ryan Cusick, RHP: The A’s moved Cusick to the bullpen last year and watched him rattle off a 1.73 ERA and 31-to-4 K/BB ratio over his final 26 innings of the season. He’s likely bullpen-bound again, both due to that success and his struggles in the rotation. He’s unlikely to factor into the starting mix this year, but based on his past usage, we’ll include him in case they reverse course. Cusick had a 4.95 ERA, 20.9% strikeout rate and dismal 15.2% walk rate in 100 innings as a starter in 2023.

Joey Estes, RHP: Estes held a rotation spot the vast majority of the 2024 season, making 24 big league starts in addition to one relief appearance. The results weren’t great, though. The former Braves draftee (acquired alongside Cusick, Shea Langeliers and Cristian Pache for Matt Olson) logged a 5.01 ERA with below-average velocity and subpar strikeout, ground-ball and home run rates. Homers have been a problem for Estes even in the minors, but he’s limited walks nicely and at the very least proven himself to be a pretty durable arm. He still has two minor league options remaining.

J.T. Ginn, RHP: Ginn was the more notable of the two prospects the Mets sent to Oakland for Chris Bassitt a few years back. The former second-rounder posted a 4.24 ERA in 34 innings during last year’s MLB debut but has posted an ERA north of 5.00 in all three of his minor league seasons with the A’s. Ginn averaged what these days is a pedestrian 92.9 mph on his sinker and did log a solid 47.4% ground-ball rate while displaying solid command. Even with the trio of rough minor league seasons an lackluster debut, Baseball America ranks him 11th in the A’s system and calls him a potential back-end starter with a high floor but limited ceiling.

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP: Yet to make his big league debut, Hoglund was the headline prospect in the trade sending Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays. He only has five starts above the Double-A level, coming late last year, and they didn’t go that well. His Double-A work was outstanding, however. The former first-rounder pitched 104 2/3 innings with a 2.84 earned run average, 23.4% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 40% grounder rate and 1.03 HR/9. His stock is down quite a ways since he was the No. 19 overall pick, and he’s unlikely to be in the mix for an Opening Day job — but he could make his debut sometime this summer.

Others on the 40-Man Roster

Brady Basso, LHP: The Athletics’ 16th-round pick in 2019, Basso signed for $75K and has never landed inside the team’s top-20 prospects at Baseball America. They rank him 25th this year after he debuted in 2024 and pitched 22 1/3 innings with a 4.03 ERA, sub-par strikeout numbers, strong command and an average ground-ball rate. Basso dominated Double-A opponents last year before being hit hard in Triple-A and posting middle-of-the-road numbers in a brief MLB debut. Basso, who averaged 92.2 mph on his fastball this past season, still has two minor league option years remaining.

Osvaldo Bido, RHP: Bido made his big league debut as a 27-year-old with the 2023 Pirates and was cut loose after logging a 5.86 ERA in 50 2/3 innings. The A’s signed him to a major league contract last winter, and in 63 1/3 frames he logged a 3.41 ERA with an above-average 24.3% strikeout rate but a rough-looking 10% walk rate. Bido misses bats and induces chases at lower rates than his raw strikeout percentage would suggest. He posted a 4.50 ERA in 10 Triple-A outings last year. He could be a swingman or a fifth starter and has a minor league option remaining.

Jacob Lopez, LHP: Acquired alongside Springs in the Athletics’ trade with the Rays, Lopez will turn 27 in March. He’s a soft-tossing lefty a low arm slot who relies more on deception than on power stuff. Righties have hit him better than lefties but haven’t exactly torched him (.218/.319/.391 in 2024; .197/.316/.343 in 2023). Baseball America ranked him 28th among Rays prospects last year and likened him to a Ryan Yarbrough type of bulk pitcher (behind an opener) or multi-inning reliever.

Hogan Harris, LHP: The A’s took Harris with the No. 85 pick back in 2018. He’s pitched in three Triple-A seasons and posted an ERA north of 6.00 in each. He made his big league debut in 2023 and was similarly rocked for a 7.14 ERA in 63 innings. Ouch. Las year, however, Harris found his most success since he posted a sub-2.00 ERA between High-A and Double-A back in 2022. The 6’3″, 230-pound southpaw posted a terrific 2.86 ERA in 21 big league appearances — nine of them starts — totaling 72 1/3 frames. His 20% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 37.3% grounder rate were all worse than average. Harris thrived in part due to some good fortune on home runs (8.5% HR/FB) and a 78.9% strand rate he’s not likely to sustain.

Down-the-Road Considerations

Mason Barnett, acquired from the Royals as part of last summer’s Lucas Erceg swap, was outstanding in Double-A post-trade and has become one of the system’s top arms. He could debut this summer but isn’t likely to break camp on the club. Jack Perkins, the Athletics’ 2022 fifth-rounder, hasn’t advanced beyond Double-A but posted a sub-3.00 ERA there last year. He’s a fastball/slider-heavy right-hander with shaky command, evidenced by a huge 32% strikeout rate but 11% walk rate last year.

Left-hander Ken Waldichuk and righty Luis Medina are both technically on the 40-man roster, but not for long. They both had Tommy John surgery midseason — Waldichuk in May, Medina in August — and will be on the 60-day IL when the A’s need roster spots. Waldichuk could make it back late this season. That’s unlikely for Medina.

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It’s not necessarily a bad collection of depth arms, and names like Barnett, Hoglund, Ginn and Perkins create varying levels of legitimate MLB rotation upside. However, the Athletics’ current contingent of big league arms carries plenty of injury risk, most notably in Severino and Springs, who both recently had notable arm troubles. One injury in the top three, and the group looks increasingly questionable. Between that and the fact that a number of the 40-man options profile best as fifth starters, it’s understandable that the A’s are open to adding some veteran stability and arguable that they should be aggressively seeking it.

The free agent market still has Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana, Spencer Turnbull, Cal Quantrill and — if the A’s can stomach surrendering another draft pick — Nick Pivetta. The trade market includes Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery Taijuan Walker and (to a lesser extent) Steven Matz as salary dump candidates. Chris Paddack could perhaps be had for a modest return.