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Gunnar Hoglund

A’s Place Gunnar Hoglund On IL, Recall JJ Bleday

By Anthony Franco | June 2, 2025 at 8:57pm CDT

The Athletics announced a handful of moves before tonight’s series opener against the Twins. Rookie starter Gunnar Hoglund is headed to the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 1, with a left hip impingement. They also lost third baseman/outfielder Miguel Andujar to the 10-day IL with a right oblique strain. Outfielder JJ Bleday and reliever Elvis Alvarado are up from Triple-A Las Vegas in corresponding moves. Martín Gallegos of MLB.com reported the Bleday recall before the club announcement.

Hoglund has held a rotation spot since being called up on May 2. The former first-round pick looked good over his first two starts, combining for 11 1/3 innings of three-run ball. He has been hit hard in each of the four appearances since then. Hoglund has allowed multiple home runs in three of them, including four longballs over six innings at the Rogers Centre on Saturday. He carries a 6.40 ERA across 32 1/3 innings.

The A’s will need to figure out a solution to round out the rotation behind Luis Severino, JP Sears, Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez. The team’s hopes of competing for a playoff spot have crumbled because of the pitching staff. MLB’s worst bullpen certainly bears some responsibility, but the rotation has also been untenable of late. Only the Rockies had a higher rotation ERA than the A’s 6.24 mark in May.

Bleday returns to the MLB outfield less than two weeks after being optioned. Rookie Denzel Clarke jumped him as the starting center fielder, as he brings a significantly higher defensive floor. Bleday could push for left field reps. Drew Avans remains in left field tonight against Minnesota righty Joe Ryan. Avans only has 11 career plate appearances, but this is his fourth start in the past six games. Bleday hit .370 over six Triple-A games to get back onto the MLB roster.

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Oakland Athletics Gunnar Hoglund J.J. Bleday Miguel Andujar

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Athletics Recall Gunnar Hoglund For MLB Debut

By Steve Adams | May 2, 2025 at 1:05pm CDT

May 2: The Athletics have recalled Hoglund and optioned fellow righty Carlos Duran to Triple-A in his place, per a team announcement.

May 1: The A’s are set to promote pitching prospect Gunnar Hoglund for his major league debut, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’s already on the 40-man roster, so they’ll only need to open a spot on the active roster.

Hoglund, 25, was the 19th overall pick by the Blue Jays out of Ole Miss back in 2021. He landed with the Athletics as the headline prospect in the trade that sent Matt Chapman to Toronto. Hoglund’s path to the big leagues has been slowed by Tommy John surgery, but he pitched a full minor league season in 2024 and has been terrific through six Triple-A starts so far in 2025.

The elbow injury, plus some dip in velocity and diminished rate stats, prompted Hoglund’s stock to decline a bit in recent seasons. He still ranked 14th among A’s prospects at MLB.com heading into the season and 16th at Baseball America, but the general outlook had been that he profiled more as a back-of-the-rotation arm at this point.

That outlook has improved rapidly in 2025, however. After sitting 91.7 mph with his heater last year, Hoglund has seen his average fastball jump to 93.6 mph in 2025, per Statcast. His swinging-strike rate hasn’t made any substantial gains, but his overall strikeout rate is up from 22.7% last year to 26.1% this season. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote today that while Hoglund didn’t rank among his top-10 A’s prospects prior to the season, the early jump in his stuff has propelled him back to the No. 2 spot on his ranking of the A’s system, trailing only first baseman Nick Kurtz.

The improved stuff has led to improved results, at least in the earlygoing. Hoglund posted a 3.44 ERA, 22.7% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 39.1% grounder rate in 130 2/3 innings last year — with most of those innings coming in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting. Despite pitching in an extremely hitter-friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League this year — the same league in which he posted a 5.88 in five starts down the stretch in ’24 — Hoglund has delivered a 2.43 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44% ground-ball rate.

Adding a couple ticks to his fastball isn’t likely to put Hoglund on an ace trajectory, but there’s a notable gap between projecting as a mid-rotation arm and a more fungible fifth starter. With the arrow pointing up, the A’s will hope that he can now profile as more of the former. Beyond the velo jump, Hoglund has also begun to incorporate a sinker into his repertoire and has largely scrapped his slider in favor of more curveballs and changeups. He’s always had plus command, and the revamped and revitalized arsenal is reason for some optimism. McDaniel noted in his update on the A’s system that Hoglund now looks “the way he did at his best at Ole Miss.”

The A’s have effectively been working with four starters for the past couple weeks. Joey Estes has already been optioned to Triple-A after a pair of nightmarish starts to begin his season. Fellow righty J.T. Ginn hit the injured list with elbow inflammation a bit more than a week ago. Lefty Jacob Lopez got the nod in Tuesday’s game against the Rangers but was optioned to Triple-A after Texas tagged him for three runs in a 2 2/3-inning start during which he issued three walks.

Hoglund will step into the rotation alongside Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, JP Sears and Osvaldo Bido. Each of Severino, Sears and Bido has produced solid or better results. Springs had a decent start but has been torched for nine earned runs in his past 8 1/3 innings, ballooning his earned run average to 6.04.

On the whole, A’s starters rank 26th in the majors with a collective 4.66 ERA. Plugging Hoglund into the mix could be a nice boon. Getting a consistent fifth starter into the mix would ostensibly benefit the bullpen, which has the eighth-highest ERA in MLB (4.51), a reprieve as well.

In terms of service time, enough has elapsed in 2025 that Hoglund won’t accrue a full year even if he’s in the majors to stay. In that scenario, he’d finish the year with 151 days of service, putting him on track to be arbitration-eligible four times, rather than the standard three, as a Super Two player. The first of those trips through the arb process would come in the 2027-28 offseason, and he’d be under club control through 2031. Of course, being optioned to the minors at any point in the future could change either of those timelines, but the club’s hope will be that Hoglund’s minor league days are behind him. The A’s stockpiled a massive number of arms in their prior rebuild, but Sears is the only one who’s proven himself in the majors so far.

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Oakland Athletics Gunnar Hoglund

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The Athletics’ Rotation Options

By Steve Adams | February 10, 2025 at 4:24pm CDT

The A’s entered the offseason with virtually no certainty in their rotation. Despite a host of trades aimed at acquiring pitching help throughout the course of their most recent rebuild, lefty JP Sears was the only prospect acquired who’s stepped up, stayed healthy, and pitched well enough to lock down a rotation job. Sears has hardly been an ace, but 64 starts and 353 innings of 4.46 ERA ball over the past two seasons will play. He’s not an exciting arm, necessarily, but Sears looks like a volume-based fourth starter with good command who’ll average 5 2/3 innings per outing and keep his club in the game more often than not. He’s a starting point.

In the months that have unfolded since, the Sacramento-bound A’s have made a pair of meaningful additions. Luis Severino signed a three-year, $67MM contract and immediately became the team’s top rotation arm upon doing so. Left-hander Jeffrey Springs came over from the Rays not long after, in a trade sending righty Joe Boyle, minor leaguers Jacob Watters and Will Simpson, and a competitive balance draft pick back to the Rays. There’s injury risk with both players — Severino averaged 42 innings per year from 2019-23; Springs missed most of 2024 recovering from UCL surgery — but both are quality arms when healthy. Springs, in particular, quietly turned in ace-caliber results in Tampa Bay from 2021-24.

That pair of additions gives the A’s a set top-three in the rotation, albeit somewhat by default at the moment. General manager David Forst has said he’s open to further additions and is hopeful of adding another starter. That comment came just over a month ago, however, and nothing has come to fruition (nor have there been any real rumblings connecting the A’s to available pitchers).

The A’s very much should add to this group if they’re intent on playing the role of a surprise contender, as many of their offseason dealings suggest. There are still several solid veteran arms available, both via free agency and trade. As things stand, it seems likelier by the day that they stick with what they have in-house. Let’s run through the options.

The Rule 5 Favorite

Mitch Spence, RHP: Spence might not have turned many heads with last year’s performance, but there aren’t too many Rule 5 picks who even make it through a whole season — let alone put themselves into legitimate competition for a rotation job the following year. Spence has done just that. The 26-year-old (27 in May) opened the 2024 season in a long relief role but pushed his way into rotation consideration with a nice start. He wound up making 24 starts and 11 long relief outings, working a total of 151 1/3 innings. Spence turned in a 4.58 ERA with a below-average 19.4% strikeout rate but strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.8% and 48.4%, respectively.

Unlike many rookie pitchers, Spence didn’t fade down the stretch; he got stronger. That’s surely due in part to the fact that he tossed a hearty 163 innings of Triple-A ball in 2023 prior to being taken by the A’s in the Rule 5. But Spence came out strong in the second half of the 2024 season, looking like a pitcher who’d found his footing. From July 20 through Sept. 17, Spence made 11 starts with a 3.66 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates didn’t make any huge gains, but he was throwing more sinkers and curveballs and getting far more grounders (and yielding fewer homers) as a result. He allowed nine runs in his final nine innings — a sour ending note — but Spence in many ways looked like a right-handed version of Spears.

What’s left of the Rebuild Arms

Ryan Cusick, RHP: The A’s moved Cusick to the bullpen last year and watched him rattle off a 1.73 ERA and 31-to-4 K/BB ratio over his final 26 innings of the season. He’s likely bullpen-bound again, both due to that success and his struggles in the rotation. He’s unlikely to factor into the starting mix this year, but based on his past usage, we’ll include him in case they reverse course. Cusick had a 4.95 ERA, 20.9% strikeout rate and dismal 15.2% walk rate in 100 innings as a starter in 2023.

Joey Estes, RHP: Estes held a rotation spot the vast majority of the 2024 season, making 24 big league starts in addition to one relief appearance. The results weren’t great, though. The former Braves draftee (acquired alongside Cusick, Shea Langeliers and Cristian Pache for Matt Olson) logged a 5.01 ERA with below-average velocity and subpar strikeout, ground-ball and home run rates. Homers have been a problem for Estes even in the minors, but he’s limited walks nicely and at the very least proven himself to be a pretty durable arm. He still has two minor league options remaining.

J.T. Ginn, RHP: Ginn was the more notable of the two prospects the Mets sent to Oakland for Chris Bassitt a few years back. The former second-rounder posted a 4.24 ERA in 34 innings during last year’s MLB debut but has posted an ERA north of 5.00 in all three of his minor league seasons with the A’s. Ginn averaged what these days is a pedestrian 92.9 mph on his sinker and did log a solid 47.4% ground-ball rate while displaying solid command. Even with the trio of rough minor league seasons an lackluster debut, Baseball America ranks him 11th in the A’s system and calls him a potential back-end starter with a high floor but limited ceiling.

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP: Yet to make his big league debut, Hoglund was the headline prospect in the trade sending Matt Chapman to the Blue Jays. He only has five starts above the Double-A level, coming late last year, and they didn’t go that well. His Double-A work was outstanding, however. The former first-rounder pitched 104 2/3 innings with a 2.84 earned run average, 23.4% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 40% grounder rate and 1.03 HR/9. His stock is down quite a ways since he was the No. 19 overall pick, and he’s unlikely to be in the mix for an Opening Day job — but he could make his debut sometime this summer.

Others on the 40-Man Roster

Brady Basso, LHP: The Athletics’ 16th-round pick in 2019, Basso signed for $75K and has never landed inside the team’s top-20 prospects at Baseball America. They rank him 25th this year after he debuted in 2024 and pitched 22 1/3 innings with a 4.03 ERA, sub-par strikeout numbers, strong command and an average ground-ball rate. Basso dominated Double-A opponents last year before being hit hard in Triple-A and posting middle-of-the-road numbers in a brief MLB debut. Basso, who averaged 92.2 mph on his fastball this past season, still has two minor league option years remaining.

Osvaldo Bido, RHP: Bido made his big league debut as a 27-year-old with the 2023 Pirates and was cut loose after logging a 5.86 ERA in 50 2/3 innings. The A’s signed him to a major league contract last winter, and in 63 1/3 frames he logged a 3.41 ERA with an above-average 24.3% strikeout rate but a rough-looking 10% walk rate. Bido misses bats and induces chases at lower rates than his raw strikeout percentage would suggest. He posted a 4.50 ERA in 10 Triple-A outings last year. He could be a swingman or a fifth starter and has a minor league option remaining.

Jacob Lopez, LHP: Acquired alongside Springs in the Athletics’ trade with the Rays, Lopez will turn 27 in March. He’s a soft-tossing lefty a low arm slot who relies more on deception than on power stuff. Righties have hit him better than lefties but haven’t exactly torched him (.218/.319/.391 in 2024; .197/.316/.343 in 2023). Baseball America ranked him 28th among Rays prospects last year and likened him to a Ryan Yarbrough type of bulk pitcher (behind an opener) or multi-inning reliever.

Hogan Harris, LHP: The A’s took Harris with the No. 85 pick back in 2018. He’s pitched in three Triple-A seasons and posted an ERA north of 6.00 in each. He made his big league debut in 2023 and was similarly rocked for a 7.14 ERA in 63 innings. Ouch. Las year, however, Harris found his most success since he posted a sub-2.00 ERA between High-A and Double-A back in 2022. The 6’3″, 230-pound southpaw posted a terrific 2.86 ERA in 21 big league appearances — nine of them starts — totaling 72 1/3 frames. His 20% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 37.3% grounder rate were all worse than average. Harris thrived in part due to some good fortune on home runs (8.5% HR/FB) and a 78.9% strand rate he’s not likely to sustain.

Down-the-Road Considerations

Mason Barnett, acquired from the Royals as part of last summer’s Lucas Erceg swap, was outstanding in Double-A post-trade and has become one of the system’s top arms. He could debut this summer but isn’t likely to break camp on the club. Jack Perkins, the Athletics’ 2022 fifth-rounder, hasn’t advanced beyond Double-A but posted a sub-3.00 ERA there last year. He’s a fastball/slider-heavy right-hander with shaky command, evidenced by a huge 32% strikeout rate but 11% walk rate last year.

Left-hander Ken Waldichuk and righty Luis Medina are both technically on the 40-man roster, but not for long. They both had Tommy John surgery midseason — Waldichuk in May, Medina in August — and will be on the 60-day IL when the A’s need roster spots. Waldichuk could make it back late this season. That’s unlikely for Medina.

—

It’s not necessarily a bad collection of depth arms, and names like Barnett, Hoglund, Ginn and Perkins create varying levels of legitimate MLB rotation upside. However, the Athletics’ current contingent of big league arms carries plenty of injury risk, most notably in Severino and Springs, who both recently had notable arm troubles. One injury in the top three, and the group looks increasingly questionable. Between that and the fact that a number of the 40-man options profile best as fifth starters, it’s understandable that the A’s are open to adding some veteran stability and arguable that they should be aggressively seeking it.

The free agent market still has Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana, Spencer Turnbull, Cal Quantrill and — if the A’s can stomach surrendering another draft pick — Nick Pivetta. The trade market includes Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery Taijuan Walker and (to a lesser extent) Steven Matz as salary dump candidates. Chris Paddack could perhaps be had for a modest return.

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MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics Brady Basso Gunnar Hoglund Hogan Harris J.T. Ginn Jacob Lopez Joey Estes Ken Waldichuk Luis Medina Mitch Spence Osvaldo Bido Ryan Cusick

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A’s To Select Gunnar Hoglund, Ryan Cusick

By Steve Adams | November 19, 2024 at 1:15pm CDT

1:15pm: The A’s are also adding outfielder Denzel Clarke to the 40-man, per McDaniel. A fourth-round pick of the A’s in 2021, he has since gone on to hit .261/.359/.467 over multiple levels while stealing 78 bases in 93 tries.

11:36am: The A’s have selected the contract of right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. They’ve also selected the contract of righty Ryan Cusick, per Ari Alexander of KPRC-2. Both are now on the 40-man roster and thus ineligible to be selected in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. The Athletics’ 40-man roster is up to 36 players, so there’s room for more additions throughout the day.

Adding Hoglund doesn’t register as much of a surprise. The 2021 first-rounder (No.  19 overall by the Blue Jays) was the centerpiece prospect in the trade sending Matt Chapman from Oakland to Toronto. He’s had a slow road back after Tommy John surgery but pitched 130 2/3 innings this past season, splitting the year between Double-A (104 2/3 innings, 2.84 ERA) and Triple-A (26 innings, 5.88 ERA). Hoglund punched out 22.7% of his opponents against a 7% walk rate during that time. MLB.com’s Jim Callis notes that Hoglund’s velocity hasn’t come all the way back since that elbow reconstruction; he sat at 92 mph in 2024 — a ways shy of his college days when he sat a couple ticks higher and topped out around 96-97 mph.

Hoglund, 25 next month, is still regarded as a strike-thrower with strong command who has the potential to start. Given the state of the A’s rotation and the fact that he’s now on the 40-man roster, his first opportunity to do so in the majors could come as soon as the 2025 season.

The A’s have JP Sears locked into a rotation spot but little certainty thereafter. Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Mitch Spence, tossed 151 innings with a 4.58 ERA, good command and below-average strikeout numbers. Right-hander Joey Estes totaled 127 2/3 frames with even better command but even lower strikeout numbers and a 5.01 ERA. Righty J.T. Ginn had similar rate stats to both and a 4.24 ERA in a smaller sample of 34 innings. Twenty-nine-year-old swingman Osvaldo Bido mopped up 63 1/3 innings with a 3.41 ERA, a strong 24.3% strikeout rate and an ugly 10% walk rate. Flamethrowing righty Joe Boyle sat 98 mph with his heater but posted a 6.42 ERA while walking 17.7% of his opponents in 47 2/3 innings (10 starts). Lefties Hogan Harris and Brady Basso both made a handful of starts in 2024, but both are already 27 and posted more concerning numbers in the minors.

Cusick is also 25 and also came to the A’s in a major trade — the one sending first baseman Matt Olson to Atlanta. The right-hander was actually drafted by the Braves just five picks after the Jays took Hoglund in 2021. He moved from the rotation to a bullpen role in 2024, and the switch clearly paid off. Cusick began the year with an dismal 6.69 ERA in 37 2/3 starts working primarily as  starter through July 12. He shifted to the ’pen full time after the break and rattled off 26 innings of 1.73 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate. His 11.8% walk rate in that time was still too high, but those rate stats are lightyears better than the ones he logged working as a starter early on (19.7 K%, 15.2 BB%).

Given the success in a move to a relief role, it seems Cusick will likely be ticketed for a bullpen audition this spring. He’ll have to further rein in his command, but the uptick in strikeouts and the gains he’s already made in terms of limiting free passes in the ’pen are encouraging.

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Oakland Athletics Transactions Denzel Clarke Gunnar Hoglund Ryan Cusick

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Sorting Through The Athletics’ Rotation Options

By Steve Adams | January 23, 2023 at 3:32pm CDT

The A’s formally announced newly signed right-hander Shintaro Fujinami at a press conference last week, where general manager David Forst confirmed that Fujinami is indeed viewed as a starting pitcher. That’s the role he’s held in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the bulk of his career, so perhaps it’s not a surprise, but Fujinami is a hard-throwing righty with command issues, so there was a case to be made for putting him in the ’pen.

Beyond that, the simple fact is that even prior to signing Fujinami, the A’s had more rotation candidates than rotation spots. That’s not an especially common spot for a rebuilding club to find itself, but Oakland has zeroed in on bulk pitching acquisition over the course of its fire sale/teardown. The front office didn’t target exclusively pitchers, but the A’s nonetheless have as many as seven rotation candidates who’ve been acquired via trade within the past calendar year on the 40-man roster.

No team is going to rely on five starters to get through a season, and even getting through a year with “only” seven or eight starters is a luxury to which most teams cannot lay claim in the modern baseball landscape. That said, the A’s stand out as a team that might lean on 15 or more starting pitchers to get through the season, given the lack of established talent, the glut of nearly MLB-ready arms on the roster and the potential for an in-season trade involving just about any likely member of the rotation.

Let’s take a look at what the starting staff might look like…

The Locks

Cole Irvin, LHP: Not many trades that end up sending cash back to a player’s former team work out better than the acquisition of Irvin has for the A’s. It’s been nearly two years to the day since Oakland picked him up from the Phillies in exchange for cash, and he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate.

With four years of club control remaining, it’d be a surprise if Irvin hasn’t at least generated some cursory trade interest this winter, although his glaring home/road splits might not help his cause much. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA at home, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash.

Splits notwithstanding, Irvin is a perfectly viable fourth/fifth starter, but a team that plays its home games in a more hitter-friendly environment might be understandably dissuaded from giving up too much young talent to acquire him. That’s fine for the A’s for now, given Irvin’s remaining club control and the simple fact that they’ll need some dependability on the staff. If he’s pitching well come July, he’ll be a feasible trade candidate (particularly with an arbitration raise looming next offseason).

Paul Blackburn, RHP: It’s easy to call Blackburn, who made the 2022 All-Star team but finished the year with a 4.28 ERA, a token All-Star who was only chosen because every team needs a representative. Perhaps there’s some truth to that, too, but as I noted last summer, Blackburn was a plenty deserving selection and a fairly intriguing trade chip at one point. Through July 2, he’d pitched 87 innings of 2.90 ERA ball with three times as many strikeouts as walks (18.8% to 6.2%) and a strong 48.7% grounder rate. His .280 BABIP and 80.7% left-on-base rate pointed to some likely regression, but based on results alone, Blackburn was pretty good.

Things went off the rails almost immediately thereafter, however. Blackburn tried for several weeks to pitch through pain that’d arisen in his pitching hand, but he was shelled for 21 runs in a span of 14 1/3 innings. He eventually landed on the injured list due to that pain, and testing revealed that he’d torn the tendon sheath in his right middle finger. He was placed in a splint for up to eight weeks, and his season was over.

Time will tell whether Blackburn can replicate his production from the first three months of the 2022 season, but as long as he’s healthy, he’ll be given every opportunity to prove it was sustainable. Blackburn only has three seasons of club control remaining, so if he’s healthy and pitching well this summer, expect to hear his name pop up in rumors.

Newcomers Who’ll Be Given a Chance

Shintaro Fujinami, RHP: The former high school rival of Shohei Ohtani, Fujinami was once lauded as a prospect nearly as much as the current Angels phenom. Fujinami, 28, stepped right from his high school rotation into the rotation of Japan’s Hanshin Tigers, posting a 2.75 ERA in 137 2/3 innings as a rookie in Nippon Professional Baseball. He was a multi-time All-Star and budding phenom in his first four years in Japan, pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA each season. His career has come off the rails since that time, though, and Fujinami comes to Oakland as a hard-throwing but command-challenged project. At 6’6″, he’s armed with a fastball that can reach triple digits and a splitter and slider that have both, at times, made hitters look silly. He’s also been shuttled between the Tigers’ top team and minor league team in NPB for several seasons while displaying troubling walk rates and looking like a shell of the potential star he was early in his pro career.

Drew Rucinski, RHP: In the past five years, the now-34-year-old Rucinski went from nondescript, replacement-level MLB pitcher to a powerhouse workhorse for the KBO’s NC Dinos. Rucinski started 121 games dating back to 2019 and has posted an ERA between 3.17 and 2.93 each season. Along the way, he’s whiffed 21.5% of opposing batters, walked just 6.3% of them and posted a superhuman 66% ground-ball rate. The A’s signed Rucinski for a year and $3MM, with a 2024 club option valued at $5MM. If he can carry over any of that KBO form to the Coliseum, he’ll be a durable source of innings and a nice summer trade chip.

The Out-of-Options Arm Who’ll Make the Staff in Some Capacity

James Kaprielian, RHP: A former first-round pick of the Yankees who was sent to Oakland as part of the Sonny Gray trade, Kaprielian has been injured more often than he’s been healthy. He looked to be turning a corner over the past two seasons, logging a combined 4.16 ERA in 253 1/3 innings over the life of 50 games (47 of them starts). However, Kaprielian had shoulder surgery this offseason, and it’s not clear whether he’ll be ready to go for Opening Day. Manager Mark Kotsay said at the time of Kaprielian’s surgery that the organization expected him to be ready, but Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News recently suggested that the soon-to-be 29-year-old might miss time early in the year. (If that’s indeed the case, he’ll land on the IL alongside rotation hopeful Daulton Jefferies, who’ll miss all of 2023 after undergoing both thoracic outlet surgery and Tommy John surgery.) Kaprielian is out of minor league options, so whenever he’s healthy, he’ll be on the roster either as a starter or perhaps a multi-inning reliever — it’s a just a matter of when that time will be.

Candidates for the Remaining Rotation Innings

(Note: all players in this section have six-plus seasons of club control remaining)

Adrian Martinez, RHP (two remaining option years): One of two players acquired in the trade that sent Sean Manaea to San Diego, Martinez was roughed up for a 6.24 ERA in 57 2/3 innings in last year’s MLB debut. It’s a rough showing, to be sure, but his 20.5% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate both portend better production. Martinez’s 2.03 HR/9 mark was one of the highest in the game, and only four of the 344 pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2022 saw a larger percentage of their fly-balls become home runs than Martinez’s 19.7%. That HR/FB rate, in particular, is ripe for positive regression, even before considering the A’s spacious home park. Metrics like xFIP (4.11) and SIERA (4.16), which normalize HR/FB to league-average levels, feel that Martinez was vastly better than his basic earned run average.

Ken Waldichuk, LHP (three option years): A key piece in the trade sending Frankie Montas to the Bronx, Waldichuk held his own in a seven-start debut (4.93 ERA, 33-to-10 K/BB ratio in 34 2/3 innings). His final outing, featuring seven shutout frames against the Angels, was a particularly high note on which to finish. On top of those 34 2/3 MLB frames, Waldichuk logged 95 innings of 2.84 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s arguably the most highly regarded member of this bunch, and he should have multiple opportunities to win a rotation spot over the next 12 to 18 months in Oakland.

Kyle Muller, LHP (one option year): A 2016 second-round pick by the Braves (who traded him to Oakland in the Sean Murphy deal), Muller has at times been ranked among the sport’s 100 best prospects at various outlets, but his stock has dimmed a bit since that time. He’s managed just a 5.14 ERA in 49 MLB innings, but he spent the bulk of his 2022 season pitching to a 3.41 ERA in 134 1/3 Triple-A innings (23 starts). Muller punched out a hefty 29.3% of his opponents. Muller can reach the upper 90s with his heater, draws plus grades on his slider and now that he’s out of a more crowded rotation mix in Atlanta, should have a clear path to innings with the A’s. He’s out of options after the 2023 season, so it’s in Oakland’s best interest to give him a chance sooner than later.

JP Sears, LHP (two option years): Prior to Oakland’s dice rolls on Rucinski and Fujinami, Sears might’ve been a favorite to break camp in the rotation after pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 70 innings as a rookie last year. Acquired in the Montas trade along with Waldichuk, the 5’11” lefty has dominated Triple-A (2.32 ERA in 101 career innings), but a return to that level might be his most straightforward path to starter’s innings early in the season. Sears, who’ll turn 27 in a few weeks, isn’t the prototypical “prospect,” as he doesn’t throw especially hard and has relied more on plus command than overpowering stuff to find success in the minors. It’s a recipe that’s worked well for Oakland pitchers in the past, thanks to the Coliseum’s cavernous dimensions. Even if he doesn’t break camp on the roster, he’ll probably start a fair number of games for the A’s in 2023.

Freddy Tarnok, RHP (two option years): Another piece of Oakland’s return for Murphy, Tarnok has all of 44 2/3 innings above Double-A under his belt (including a tiny two-thirds of an inning MLB debut in 2022). That lack of upper minors experience, coupled with the breadth of options for the Athletics’ rotation, should probably ticket him for Triple-A work to start the season. Several scouting reports on the 6’3″ Tarnok suggest his ultimate home might be in the bullpen, where a fastball that can already reach 98 mph might play up further. He’s never reached 110 innings in a professional season, so in addition to getting some needed reps against Triple-A lineups, he’ll also be looking to build out his workload.

Luis Medina, RHP (one option year): Yet another piece of the Montas return, Medina pitched to a 3.38 ERA in 17 Double-A starts with the Yankees before being blown up for a calamitous 11.76 ERA in seven starts (20 2/3 innings) with the Athletics’ Double-A club. Command has long been an issue for Medina, but he took that concern to new heights with the A’s, walking 22 of the 114 batters he faced following the trade. FanGraphs lauds Medina’s plus breaking ball and elite arm strength, while Baseball America notes that his heater has reached 103 mph in the past. The huge command concerns could lead to a future in the bullpen. Medina isn’t likely to win a starting job early in the season, but the A’s can continue trying to refine his ability to locate the ball in hopes of hitting the jackpot on a starter with this type of repertoire. If not, a move to the ’pen could put him on a fast track to the Majors.

Adam Oller, RHP (two option years): The A’s picked up Oller as one of two arms in the trade sending Chris Bassitt to the Mets. Nineteen appearances later (14 starts), he has a 6.30 big league ERA under his belt with nearly as many walks (39) as strikeouts (46) in 74 1/3 innings. It wasn’t the start anyone hoped for, but Oller posted a solid 3.69 ERA in seven Triple-A starts. Oller always profiled as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, and even the A’s massive home park couldn’t curtail the right-hander’s home run issues (2.06 HR/9). A bullpen role where he works multiple innings is feasible, as is a return to Triple-A Las Vegas.

Other Recent Trade Acquisitions

J.T. Ginn, RHP: Ginn missed more than three months of the 2022 season with a forearm injury and was clobbered for a 6.11 ERA in 10 starts of Double-A ball when healthy. He came to the A’s alongside Oller in the Bassitt trade and, as a 2020 second-rounder, was the more highly regarded get for Oakland. He’s not on the 40-man roster yet and is still only 23, so there’s plenty of time for him to right the ship, but he’s not on the immediate rotation radar.

Ryan Cusick, RHP: The Braves’ top pick in 2021, Cusick was traded to Oakland in the Matt Olson swap. Like Ginn, he spent much of the season on the injured list (in his case, due to a rib fracture). Also like Ginn, he was hit hard in Double-A when healthy, yielding a 7.02 ERA in 41 frames. He’s not Rule 5-eligible until after the 2024 season, so there’s no rush.

Joey Estes, RHP: Acquired from the Braves alongside Cusick, Estes handled older competition in High-A reasonably well. His 4.55 ERA wasn’t especially eye-catching, but he whiffed 23.8% of his opponents against a strong 7.8% walk rate in 91 innings. Home runs were an issue, but that’s two straight years of nice K-BB numbers against older competition for Estes.

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP: Hoglund would’ve been a top-10 pick in 2021 had he not required Tommy John surgery during his junior year of college, but the Blue Jays still liked him enough to take him at No. 19 and the A’s still liked him enough to make him the headliner in the Matt Chapman deal. Hoglund only pitched eight innings late in the 2022 season as he worked back from that ligament replacement procedure, so he’s nowhere close to the big leagues. His development will be worth keeping an eye on, though. Lefty Zach Logue, acquired alongside Hoglund, has already been designated for assignment, claimed by the Tigers and then passed through waivers in Detroit. He surrendered a 6.79 ERA through 57 innings as a rookie last year and actually posted an even grislier 8.12 ERA in 78 2/3 Triple-A frames.

—

Amazingly, even after all of their recent trades of star-caliber players, the organization’s lone entrant on Baseball America’s Top 100 list is catcher Tyler Soderstrom — who, unlike every single one of the names mentioned prior, was drafted by the A’s. Part of that is borne out of the Athletics’ penchant for prioritizing near-MLB players in trades (as opposed to further off, more highly touted prospects), but it’s still rather surprising to see.

Nevertheless, while the A’s aren’t going to win many games in 2023, they’re brimming with young arms who could eventually hold down spots in the rotation. Attrition rate among young pitchers is enormous, and many of these names will be lost to injury, shift to the bullpen, or pitch themselves off the roster entirely. For now, it’ll be fascinating to see how many of Oakland’s young arms can solidify themselves in the big leagues, because their ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be a driving factor in the latest rebuild phase.

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MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics Adam Oller Adrian Martinez Cole Irvin Drew Rucinski Freddy Tarnok Gunnar Hoglund J.P. Sears J.T. Ginn James Kaprielian Joey Estes Ken Waldichuk Kyle Muller Luis Medina Paul Blackburn Ryan Cusick Shintaro Fujinami

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Athletics Trade Matt Chapman To Blue Jays

By Steve Adams | March 16, 2022 at 9:55am CDT

Oakland’s rapid sell-off and the Blue Jays’ aggressive offseason both continued Wednesday, as the A’s announced that third baseman Matt Chapman has been traded to Toronto in exchange for right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, infielder Kevin Smith, left-hander Zach Logue and left-hander Kirby Snead.

Matt Chapman | Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

The acquisition of Chapman will give the Blue Jays not only one of the best defensive third basemen in the game but one of the top defensive players in baseball at any position. Since Chapman’s 2017 Major League debut, his 88 Defensive Runs Saved and his 47.3 Ultimate Zone rating both trail only Mookie Betts and Andrelton Simmons among all big leaguers. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric largely agrees, ranking him tenth among all big league players, regardless of position, since 2017. Indeed, Chapman has twice been recognized as the league’s best all-around defender by being named the league’s Platinum Glove winner.

Of course, Chapman is far from a glove-only player. From 2018-19, he was a legitimate MVP candidate on the strength of his combined offensive and defensive prowess. The former No. 25 overall draft pick posted a .263/.348/.507 slash with 60 home runs while playing his home games at the cavernous Oakland Coliseum during those two seasons, finishing Top 7 in American League MVP voting on both occasions.

Chapman’s offensive production has fallen sharply over the past two seasons, due in no small part to a major hip injury in 2020 that he tried to play through before succumbing to surgery. That procedure both repaired a labrum tear and “cleaned up” the head of his right femur bone. Even as his production has dipped, Chapman has still hit for power (37 home runs, .216 ISO) and drawn plenty of walks (11.4%), but his strikeout rate has spiked from 22.8% in 2018-19 all the way to 33.1% in 2020-21. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted a combined .215/.206/.431 batting line.

The Jays are surely betting that Chapman will bounce back to an extent at the plate now that he’ll be 18 months removed from that September 2020 surgery. However, even if he doesn’t return to his MVP-caliber levels from 2018-19, the new three-true-outcomes version of Chapman was still worth 3.5 wins above replacement per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs last season. He’s a pronounced upgrade for a Jays team hoping to make a deep postseason run on the strength of a dominant offense and a rotation that has improved by leaps and bounds in recent seasons.

Chapman’s salary has not yet been settled, as he’s arbitration-eligible and did not settle on a price point with the A’s prior to the lockout. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM this coming season and will be owed one more raise for the 2023 campaign before reaching free agency in the 2023-24 offseason. While Jays fans may be looking to Matt Olson’s swift extension following a trade from Oakland to his hometown Braves, it should be pointed out that as a client of the Boras Corporation, Chapman seems less likely to follow that same trajectory. Still, he’ll be locked in as the Toronto third baseman for at least the next two seasons.

Adding Chapman firmly pushes Cavan Biggio to second base, where he’s better suited to play from a defensive standpoint. Chapman’s range will also play nicely alongside Bo Bichette, who has drawn mixed reviews for his glovework at shortstop. Statcast notes that Bichette is much stronger on balls hit to his left side than those hit to his right, so getting some extra range out of their third baseman will be particularly helpful.

It’s worth pointing out that Chapman isn’t an ideal fit for a Toronto lineup that skews almost entirely right-handed. He’d give them eight pure right-handed hitters in the starting lineup, with Biggio the lone lefty. That right-handed lean was part of the reason that a potential Freddie Freeman fit has seemed so tantalizing for the Jays. This acquisition technically doesn’t rule out a Freeman signing, but it does quash any speculation of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moving back to third base. That’s in the team’s best interest anyhow, as Guerrero was never a strong defensive option at the hot corner. A theoretical Freeman addition would push Guerrero into a primary designated hitter role earlier in his career than the Jays might’ve liked, but the sheer offensive firepower of that lineup would still make it worth considering. Toronto had been linked to Kyle Schwarber, but he’s now Philadelphia-bound after agreeing to a four-year deal with the Phillies.

Turning the Oakland’s return, they’ll acquire one high-end but far-off pitching prospect, Hoglund, and a trio of largely MLB-ready pieces in Smith, Logue and Snead. Hoglund was the No. 19 overall draft pick in 2021 and might well have gone in the Top 10 selections had he not required Tommy John surgery during last year’s NCAA season. The former Ole Miss ace was largely regarded as one of the top college arms in the draft after pitching to a 2.41 ERA with a sky-high 39% strikeout rate against a strong 6.1% walk rate.

Baseball America ranked him fifth among Toronto farmhands, while FanGraphs pegged him No. 3 in the Toronto system. Much of Hoglund’s future depends on how he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he’d been described as an advanced college arm with mid-rotation upside and a potential quick path to the big leagues.

Smith, 25, ought to step right into the Athletics’ Opening Day lineup. He went just 3-for-32 in a brief big league cup of coffee late in the 2021 season, but that’s overshadowed by a big .285/.370/.561 batting line in Triple-A last year. Smith, ranked seventh among Jays prospects at BA and 16th at FanGraphs, smacked 21 home runs, 27 doubles and four triples while also going 18-for-21 in stolen base attempts in that outstanding Triple-A campaign. BA ranked him as the game’s No. 91 prospect in the 2018-19 offseason, and while a poor first showing in Triple-A dropped his stock, last year’s excellent rebound restored a good bit of faith in his abilities.

Kevin Smith | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Jays played Smith primarily at shortstop during his time in Triple-A, but he also has 651 professional innings at third base and 161 innings of work at second base. Scouting reports peg him as a capable but not-elite defender at short. Given the presence of all-world defensive prospect Nick Allen in the upper tiers of the Oakland system, it seems quite possible that Smith’s eventual home with the A’s will be either third base or second base.

As for the two pitchers, Logue has a chance to be in the Oakland rotation before long. The 25-year-old (26 in April) was Toronto’s ninth-round pick in 2017 and has greatly elevated his status, thanks in part to a nice showing between Double-A and Triple-A this past season. In 125 innings between the two levels, Logue notched a 3.67 ERA with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate, an even better 5.3% walk rate and a 38% ground-ball rate. That he’s a fly-ball pitcher moving to Oakland as opposed to Toronto’s more hitter-friendly Rogers Centre can only help his chances of becoming a quality big league contributor.

Logue ranked 24th among Jays prospects at BA, where he was labeled one of the system’s “most improved” players in 2021 and touted as a potential back-end starter. FanGraphs tabbed him 10th in the Toronto system, praising his plus changeup, plus command and above-average cutter. Scouting reports generally don’t peg Logue as more than a fourth starter, but if he’s able to realize that potential, there’s quite a bit of value in six-plus seasons of a No. 4 starter.

Snead, 27, gives the A’s an MLB-ready bullpen piece who made his big league debut late in the ’21 season. Snead allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits and a pair of walks with seven strikeouts through his first 7 2/3 big league innings last year. That marked the continuation of an excellent season in Triple-A, where he’d notched a 1.58 ERA with a huge 36.1% strikeout rate, a 10.1% walk rate and a massive 63.3% ground-ball rate.

Unlike many lefties, Snead has no issues containing right-handed opponents in 2021. While he was still better against left-handers, who posted an awful .141/.222/.203 against him (Majors and Triple-A combined), right-handers were similarly futile. Even when batters held the platoon advantage, they mustered only a .186/.278/.245 output against Snead. He’s been a pure reliever throughout his professional career, but that dominance against both righties and lefties mitigates any specialist concerns and gives him the chance to be a multi-inning option. Snead has pitched 236 1/3 innings through 186 minor league appearances, so he’s no stranger to working more than an inning at a time.

The trade of an All-Star third baseman to the Blue Jays for a four-player package consisting of three largely MLB-ready pieces and one further-off but high-upside prospect will do little to quell comparisons to the 2014 Josh Donaldson blockbuster. That trade, which brought Franklin Barreto, Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin to Oakland, didn’t pan out as the front office hoped, but today’s swap is a separate deal, eerie similarities notwithstanding. The A’s have added a notable influx of talent to their system, and the Chapman return in particular features the largest crop of MLB-ready talent they’ve picked up thus far in their offseason dealings.

The Chapman trade marks the latest step in the dismantling of a roster that was largely foreseeable but is nevertheless disheartening for the fanbase. Chapman follows fan favorites Olson and Chris Bassitt out the door, and it’s unlikely Oakland will stop its roster purge with those three. Lefty Sean Manaea, a free agent at season’s end, seems all but certain to be traded. Right-hander Frankie Montas, center fielder Ramon Laureano and reliever Lou Trivino all have multiple seasons of club control remaining but still could change hands. Montas, in particular, has been a target for pitching-hungry clubs. Looking ahead, it’s not really a question of whether any of those players will be traded — but rather one of who’ll be the next to go.

Former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga first reported on Instagram that a trade agreement was in place. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported Oakland’s return for Chapman (Twitter link).

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Newsstand Oakland Athletics Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Gunnar Hoglund Kevin Smith Kirby Snead Matt Chapman Zach Logue

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Blue Jays Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Gunnar Hoglund

By Steve Adams | July 16, 2021 at 12:43pm CDT

The Blue Jays have agreed to terms with first-round pick Gunnar Hoglund, reports Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo (via Twitter). The former Ole Miss righty will receive a $3,247,500 bonus that clocks in about $111K south of his slot value at No. 19 overall. Hoglund is represented by Nate Heisler of Rep 1 Baseball.

That slightly under-slot price point is likely due in large part to the fact that Hoglund underwent Tommy John surgery about two months before the draft. Prior to that elbow injury, Hoglund was regarded as one of the top college arms on the board and considered a potential top 10 pick. While he’ll miss the remainder of the 2021 season and won’t be able to begin pitching for a Jays affiliate until sometime next summer, at the earliest, Hoglund nevertheless adds a high-profile arm to an already strong Jays system.

Hoglund, 21, pitched 62 2/3 innings with the Rebels in 2021 before sustaining the elbow injury that necessitated his surgery. In that time, he pitched to a 2.87 ERA while striking out 38.9 percent of his opponents against a 6.8 percent walk rate. Dating back to the shortened 2020 season, in which he tossed 23 1/3 frames, Hoglund carries a 2.41 ERA with a sensational 133-to-21 K/BB ratio in 86 total innings.

Even with that injury, Hoglund landed 14th on FanGraphs’ final draft rankings, 19th at Baseball America, 20th at ESPN, 22nd at MLB.com and 30th at The Athletic. Scouting reports on Hoglund credited him with the best command in the draft and a plus slider. The Athletic’s Keith Law noted that Hoglund’s ceiling might not be as high as that of the draft’s top college arms (Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker), but the consensus was there’s a “high probability that he’d at least develop into a fourth starter.” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel adds that Hoglund was “locked in” as a top 10 pick prior to his elbow injury.

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2021 Amateur Draft 2021 Amateur Draft Signings Toronto Blue Jays Gunnar Hoglund

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2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results

By Mark Polishuk | July 11, 2021 at 7:52pm CDT

The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced.  The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon.  This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
  2. Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  3. Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
  4. Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
  5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
  7. Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
  8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
  9. Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
  10. New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  11. Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
  12. Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
  13. Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
  14. San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
  15. Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
  16. Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
  17. Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
  18. St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
  20. New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
  21. Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
  22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
  23. Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
  24. Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
  25. Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
  26. Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
  27. San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
  28. Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
  30. Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
  31. Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
  32. Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
  33. Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
  34. Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
  35. Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
  36. Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)
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2021 Amateur Draft Newsstand Andrew Painter Benny Montgomery Brady House Carson Williams Chase Petty Colson Montgomery Colton Cowser Cooper Kinney Frank Mozzicato Gavin Williams Gunnar Hoglund Harry Ford Henry Davis Jack Leiter Jackson Jobe Jackson Merrill Jay Allen Joe Mack Jordan Lawlar Jordan Wicks Kahlil Watson Kumar Rocker Maddux Bruns Marcelo Mayer Matheu Nelson Matt McLain Max Muncy (2002) Michael McGreevy Noah Miller Ryan Cusick Sal Frelick Sam Bachman Trey Sweeney Ty Madden Tyler Black Will Bednar

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Top Draft Prospect Gunnar Hoglund To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

By Steve Adams | May 11, 2021 at 12:13pm CDT

Ole Miss right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, one of the top prospect in this summer’s draft class, will require Tommy John surgery after exiting last night’s start during the first inning, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports (Twitter link). He’ll be sidelined for the next 12 to 18 months while he recovers.

It’s a tough blow for the 21-year-old Hoglund, who has been excellent thus far in his junior season. Through 62 2/3 innings spread across 11 starts, the 6’4″, 220-pound righty has pitched to a 2.87 ERA while striking out 38.9 percent of his opponents against a 6.8 percent walk rate. Hoglund notched a 1.16 ERA and a stellar 37-to-4 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 innings in 2020 before the season was halted.

McDaniel’s most recent mock draft had Hoglund going eighth overall to the Rockies, while recent mocks from Baseball America and MLB.com had him going 10th to the Mets and 13th to the Phillies, respectively. BA ranked Hoglund as the No. 9 overall prospect in this year’s draft, while MLB.com had him tenth. It’s the second time Hoglund has entered the season as a high-profile draft prospect; the Pirates selected him with the No. 36 pick back in 2018, but he opted to honor his college commitment and did not sign. Pittsburgh received a comp pick the following year (used to select outfield prospect Sammy Siani).

The forthcoming Tommy John procedure doesn’t entirely dash Hoglund’s hopes of going in the first round. It’s fairly common for teams in the middle or back half of the first round roll the dice on injured potential top 10 talents whose stock has dipped a bit due to health concerns. McDaniel adds in reporting the unfortunate news on Hoglund that the injury will probably drop him to the 15 to 25 range on future attempts at forecasting the first round.

[Related: 2021 MLB Draft To Be 20 Rounds]

Hoglund becomes the second high-profile college starter to require Tommy John surgery this spring, joining LSU righty Jaden Hill, who sustained a torn UCL in early April. Both could yet come off the board early in this summer’s draft, particularly if there’s a team interested in cutting a deal to save some money on its top pick and then spending a bit more aggressively elsewhere down the board.

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2021 Amateur Draft Gunnar Hoglund Jaden Hill

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