The Royals will call-up Jackson Kowar to start tomorrow night’s game against the Angels, manager Mike Matheny announced to reporters (including Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City). Jakob Junis will be optioned to Triple-A Omaha in a corresponding move.
Selected with the 33rd overall pick of the 2018 draft (one spot ahead of fellow vaunted Royals rookie Daniel Lynch), Kowar is now regarded as one of the sport’s more promising pitching prospects. Entering this season, Baseball America ranked him as baseball’s #95 overall prospect and the #4 farmhand in the Kansas City organization. Keith Law of the Athletic also placed Kowar fourth in the system, while Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slots him eighth. All three outlets credit him with a potentially elite changeup and a mid-90s sinker. Whether Kowar will develop into an efficient strike-thrower figures to determine his ultimate role.
BA projects Kowar as a potential middle of the rotation starter, feeling he’ll develop “at least average control.” Law feels he could settle in at the back of a rotation if his command improves a bit in the coming seasons. Longenhagen, meanwhile, suggests he’s most likely to wind up in high-leverage relief, likening him to former Royal Ryan Madson. Regardless of the exact form it takes, public prospect forecasters all view Kowar as a potential noteworthy part of a pitching staff in some capacity.
Kowar has gotten off to a fantastic start in Omaha this year, his first taste of the minors’ top level. Through six starts, he’s worked to a 0.85 ERA in 31 2/3 frames, striking out a whopping 33.9% of opposing hitters while walking 8.3%. That strong showing has brought his career minor league ERA down to 3.10, slightly better than the 3.53 mark he managed over three seasons at the University of Florida.
He becomes the third of the Royals crop of well-regarded pitching prospects to make his MLB debut. Brady Singer, Kowar’s college teammate, reached the big leagues last season and has thrown 117 2/3 innings of 4.51 ERA/4.20 SIERA ball over his first 23 starts. Lynch was promoted on May 3, although he’s since been optioned back to Triple-A after giving up 15 runs in his first eight innings.
Junis, who moved to the bullpen when Lynch was selected, will head to Omaha to build back up as a starting pitcher, Worthy relays. Junis performed fairly well in the season’s first month while working out of the rotation, although he’s struggled in a relief role. His demotion will open an active roster spot for Kowar, but Kansas City will need to make another transaction before tomorrow’s game. The Royals 40-man roster is full, so a move is necessary to accommodate Kowar’s formal selection.
Even if Kowar sticks in the majors for good, he’ll be controllable through the end of the 2027 season. The early-June timing of his promotion makes it possible he’ll qualify for Super Two status, which would allow him to reach arbitration eligibility for the first time after 2023 (assuming the existing arbitration structure remains in the next collective bargaining agreement). Future optional assignments could change that trajectory.
Let’s go!
Well deserved
methinks Law is a little pessimistic on Kowar. ceiling of a backend guy? i dunno.
Stuff-wise, that seems right. A sinker/changeup guy in the low to mid 90’s that pitches to contact seems like a 4. See Chris Paddack. I know he has a high K% this year, but that isn’t who he has been throughout the minors. Guys out pitch their projections all the time, but that seems like an accurate projection.
Seeing that he has a plus FB and a plus plus bordering on elite change and a much improved curve improving from avg to good. He may be a little more than a no.4.
His fastball is 95-97 touching 100 this year. I think what Law was basing that off of is if he just stays on a linear development path. If he adds velo and control, which so far this year he has done since Law wrote that, he can go higher.
For me Kowar is all about the curve ball development. Change up is a wipeout pitch and the fastball is solid. If he can add a third average to above average pitch, he can be very very good.
Steve Nebraska: Due to there not being an MILB season last yr,he’s ONLY had 1 full MILB season. In ’19 he pitched in Hi A & AA w 13 starts (74 & 74.1 ip 3.53 & 3.51 ERA) in each classification. He did so at the age of 22, no ’20 season and dominating AAA at this point. Is he an ACE? Probably not but a solid 3 is very achievable as long as he’s able to stay healthy.
Also, Law is (like myself) from the lost generation of Royals fans who had to endure 30 years of ineptitude right in our prime fandom years. He’s always pessimistic about Royals prospects.
Might be misinterpreting your first sentence, but Law grew up a Yankees fan. Not that it matters. He “hates” all teams equally!
Anthony Franco: Uhm, I think you made a mistake or simply overlooked something in your article. BOTH Brady Singer AND Kris Bubic (the 40th pick in the ’18 draft) made their MLB debuts last year w Bubic making 10 starts (50 ip). Lynch earlier this season and now Kowar. That’s the 1st 4 picks in the Royals ’18 draft class.
Doesn’t say third from the 18 draft, it says third from the “crop of well-regarded pitching prospects.” Bubic was a decent prospect but I don’t think he was ever Im any top 100 lists like Singer, Kowar and Lynch have been.
That they’re all from the same draft is interesting but not what he said.
Bubic was picked in the 1st round, like Singer, Lynch, and Kowar. If you don’t think that makes him highly regarded, I’m not sure of your standard.
I don’t disagree, just saying he didn’t say “three from the 18 class”. We’ve actually had 5 of our first 6 picks from that class already debut (Singer, Kowar, Lynch, Bubic and Kyle Isbel)
TLB2001: My point wasn’t that only that he was fr the same draft class, but rather he was the 2nd of the 4 (behind Singer) to reach the Majors. He was the youngest of the group, was projected to be the last to be called up (reasoning behind him not being on the 100 list). He was picked less than 10 picks fr Lynch &Kowar. All of the facts that I mentioned show that Bubic was (in fact) “HIGHLY REGARDED “. Thus making Lynch the 3rd AND now Kowar the 4th of the HIGHLY REGARDED pitching prospect to be called up.
Exactly. Four first rounders. All making debuts within 3 years of being drafted.
Projection? Go look at Shane Bieber’s grades. He had a mid to back end rotation arm projection. Baseball is plausibly the most difficult major sport to predict future success and we allow ourselves to pencil these prospects into narrow windows.
Pitching is an art far beyond the measurables. Kowar could be a Cy Young or a bullpen arm. What is known, is that he has dominated AAA and earnestly earned an opportunity. Let’s put the crystal ball away for a moment and agree he has solid stuff and hope it works out for him.
Yes. It’s also why fans shouldn’t get too high or low on baseball analyst predictions. For the latter, an increase in command, or addition of another pitch, can change a player’s trajectory. Was Corey Kluber projected to be the best pitcher in the AL? Never. He might not have even been projected as a back-end starter.