Avisail Garcia made three plate appearances in last night’s 10-2 Brewers loss to the Cardinals, giving the Milwaukee outfielder 492 PA for the season. This is the exact number needed to turn the Brewers’ $12MM club option on Garcia for the 2022 campaign into a mutual option, and thus Garcia can now decide whether or not he wishes to remain with the Brewers or enter this winter’s free agent market.
Garcia initially came to Milwaukee via free agency in the 2019-20 offseason, as Garcia received a guaranteed $20MM over the 2019-20 seasons. This broke down as a $500K signing bonus, $17.5MM in salary, and a $2MM buyout of that 2022 club option. The club option turned into a mutual option if Garcia achieved either of two criteria — either 550 PA in 2021, or 1050 total PA over the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Contractual thresholds in the shortened 2020 season were prorated, so Garcia’s 207 PA in 2020 were the equivalent of 558 PA in a normal season. Now that the option has vested, Garcia’s buyout adjusts to $1.5MM (also based on plate appearances) should he decline his end of the mutual option.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco outlined Garcia’s situation back on August 26, and not much has changed for the outfielder in the last four weeks. Garcia has missed a few games due to back and hamstring soreness and hit a modest .212/.255/.500 over his last 55 plate appearances. That said, Garcia has also homered in two of three games since a four-game absence due to back spasms, so it is possible he has turned the corner on his injury problems.
Another little hot streak over the Brewers’ final 10 games or (perhaps more importantly) during the postseason would only enhance what has already been a very solid year for the 30-year-old. Garcia has hit .270/.337/.506 with a career-best 29 homers, which translates to a 121 wRC+ and 122 OPS+. He has been making a lot of hard contact, and as per Statcast, Garcia might even be a little shortchanged in the production department — his .374 xwOBA is higher than his .356 wOBA. Beyond the offensive side, Garcia has also been an excellent right fielder according to the UZR/150 (13.6) and Defensive Runs Saved (9) metrics, though he is rated as merely average by Outs Above Average.
Since mutual options are almost never triggered by both sides, it’s safe to assume Garcia will look to exercise his free agent rights unless he and the Brewers can work out an extension beforehand. Between a big arbitration class and a lot of money already invested in the outfield, Milwaukee might prefer to seek out the proverbial next Avisail Garcia (i.e. another outfielder who could be signed for a mid-tier salary) rather than spend more on a player who hasn’t been very consistent over his 10 MLB seasons.
Should Garcia indeed decline the mutual option, the Brewers could also issue him a qualifying offer, so the team could obtain a compensatory draft pick if Garcia declined the QO and signed elsewhere. Though the one-year QO will be in the neighborhood of $20MM, Garcia would most likely decline that one-year payday in search of a longer-term offer on the open market.
U can brew it all day, u can brew it all night!
I honestly would not be surprised to see this mutual option picked up by both sides, which is extremely rare.
If they offer him the $20MM QO, I just don’t see him walking away from that. He is a solid regular, when at his best, which you can’t rely on. Not what teams are forfeiting draft choices for. His value on the open market plummets with a QO attached.
I agree. He would not be very wise to assume there is a massive pot of gold waiting for him as a FA.
He’s on the wrong side of 30, though. Getting 3-4 years in the $12-15M range is probably better than 1/$20M.
I agree, but I think he’s been too inconsistent over his career both in terms of production and health to expect even that
Yeah, maybe. He fits into that middle-class of free agents that always seem to get squeezed.
My guess is he will opt out because every ballplayer grows up wanting to be a Met. The question is do the Mets have room in the OF for him with Nimmo Smith and Conforto all having MVP-esque seasons this years
Even Mr. Met wanted to be a Yankee.
Maybe if you added all their stats together. Nimrod is the only one having even a decent season.
Sick burn
“everyone ballplayer grows up wanting to be a Met.” That single line made me laugh so hard. Thanks for that nonsensical statement.
Zero chance he gets a QO.
I mean…he could win the NLCS and WS MVP and….then there’s a ~3-5 percent chance he gets a QO.
I was kinda hoping they’d limit his PA’s at the end of the year because we really just need `1, maybe 2 years from him. By that point, you should have a lot of guys showing up battling for playing time.
Mitchell, Frelick, Weimer…even Turang has played some CF. And they’ll be losing Cain and JBJ after next year(losing may be a strong word for it, ridding themselves of JBJ I guess you could say).
Love what Garcia has done for us, hope he makes himself so more money in the off-season, but I agree, the QO is outrageous, and with roughly 75 million already invested in next year’s team with so many guys up for arbitration…I don’t know how they’ll have money to bring back Escobar or Arcia. Especially if they ACTUALLY lost 100 million due to Covid(though I’m skeptical of that #…I don’t believe they lost 100 million so much they’re projecting what they would have made and counting that as a loss….though it still doesn’t totally track, either way, they didn’t make money in ’20).
As long as they keep Stearns for at least one more year(though hopefully several) I’m confident he’ll figure it out. And even if they don’t find someone in the Free Agent market, this team will be competitive next year barring any major injuries. So they can always go out and add a bat at the trade deadline. A 270/.340/490 type guy is not that rare at the trade deadline.
Also, I can’t believe he is barely 30. Seems like he’s been in the big leagues 20 years.
Brewers would be wise to offer the QO. It’s a 1 year deal and gives them leverage. And he would be wise to take it. After that a 3 year/$24M deal should be easy to get if he continues his production. He’s a big guy so first base is possible too making him more versatile and valuable.
What I like about Garcia is his consistency; his home/road splits are very similar meaning he’s not just benefitting from his home park.
I would also gamble on giving him a QO. The reason is I think he and his agent have to gamble and hope the cba luxury tax goes up. This is his last chance to get a mega deal. The brewers will probably not QO him if I had to guess, unless he has a big playoff. Brewers system could really use the extra pick in the draft as well.
89 / 138 / 95 / 112 / 78 / 122.
0.4 / 4.2 / 0.0 / 1.9 / 0.7 / 3.1
Those are his OPS+ and WAR ratings since 2016. He’s consistently good one season and then bad the next, I will give him that.
I think he’d take a QO because I don’t know how much better he’d do as a FA with the compensation attached, and I don’t know that the Brewers want to spend 20 million on him.
Although if he was on a one year deal, would it help him break out of his “good every other year, bad every other year” trend?
My guess is he won’t get a QO. He will opt out and probably get 2-3 years at somewhere close to 12 million.
IMO the QO is only worth it if he rejects it or eventually signs for 3/30+ deal. That being said MIL will need an OF next year just due to Cain’s and Yelich’s health and JBJ lack of hitting.
The Brewers do not have anywhere NEAR 20 million available to pay Garcia.
75 million in committed salary, more differed and then you’ve got Woodruff, Hader, Burnes, Adames, Navarez, Houser, Lauer, Suter, Tellez…Voggie I think.
Without actually breaking down how much each player is likely to get, let’s just say ~45 million.
And it could easily end up being more than that. I guess they’ve got some light at the end of the tunnel with Cain and JBJ, but they’re just starting to pay Yelich.
Hopefully they make a nice deep playoff push and Mark A is willing to go back in the red…but if that happens, Escobar will likely be prioritized over Garcia…and I can ALMOST promise you(I don’t like absolutes)…but they’re not going to give Garcia 20 million with his inconsistent track record.
Garcia has thrived in Milwaukee this season putting up career high numbers in many offensive categories. It might be better maybe for both sides to work out a new deal and maybe add a year or two to keep Garcia around.
Anyone heard from Nyger Morgan?
Regards,
Cardinals fan
I’m just here to talk about how bad of a season Jackie Bradley is having. Is it necessary to be known as JR when we don’t know who his dad is?? The real Jr… that is Griffey.. had the Jr. dropped from his name when pops retired.
NBA now has Marcus Morris SR. suddenly. Like we have to address him as Sr. now because he named a kid after himself. Lol
NOW GET OFF MY LAWN!!
Seems like this trend started in the nfl, I wanna say with Steve Smith (?).
I don’t mind the Sr/Jr/III stuff as much as the Smith-Johnson hyphenated last name silliness. But its their world, we’re just forced to listen to the story (repeatedly) of why they have a hyphenated name.
It’s their name, not yours.
Yeah….he literally just said that in a slightly different manner saying, “but it’s their world, we’re just forced to listen to the story of why they have a hyphenated name.”
Were you under the impression that he thought their last name was in fact his? Or are you adding absolutely nothing of consequence here?
I wouldn’t by any chance give QO at all. The guy was over weight last year. He got in shape for the contract year not for the Brewers. Taylor. can com close to that production or at least 3/4 of it for only half million. Then maybe somehow get rid of JBJ. Then I think we can possibly get Baez, Bryant, Story, or Seager in free agency. But on a major note can we please get rid of Anderson and Vogel now please.
Put the drugs down man. It’s Wil Myers or bust!
Seriously, Milwaukee isn’t getting any of those guys, and why tf would they want anything to do with Baez? We have a ss and 2b, he can’t hit, and the only person who likes him more than you (it seems) is him. Proverbial, metaphorical and literal (2) Thumbs Down.
Trust me I don’t like him at all but I have seen him carry a team and be very dangerous offensively. Now question is weather he can ruin a clubhouse like a cancer or Brewer fans embrace it like a Tony Plush.
The Brewers have over $50 million committed to 3 OF spots next year. Are they really risking the QO offer to have over $70 million tied up in the OF? I know their pitching is cheap still, but that just seems excessive.
Well, 1 of those guys is an aging, oft injured Cain, another is the ghost of former mvp Christian Yelich, and another is the rotting corpse of JBJ. If you use that in the equation, it’s a little more complicated than just dollars.
he’s money in odd numbered years.
2022.1
There, another odd year.
That would still be an odd moment in an even year, respectfully.
Sounds like an argument for the Giants to grab him.
I thought with the MLB and MLBPU contract ending after the last day of the WS that the QO and other rules went out the window until a new Contract was agreed to?
The collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1 — not the day after the World Series.
When a player who averages 14 HR’s and 53 RBI’s and can’t stY healthy gets that kind of $$$ being talked about that is pure insanity. Just to QO him at that rate seems crazy given his history
Mets will throw money at him….but I think staying where he is at is the best option