The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game. While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.
The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres. St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender. Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season. The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation. Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.
The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction. For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy. However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason. It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries. It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.
Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August. Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals). With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.
The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry. The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins. While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.
The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions. The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way. Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.
Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division. (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.) Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September. The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.
Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)
Cardinals always seem to do it
It will be a tragedy when Waino shuts the Dodgers down in the one-game crapshoot.
That’s all fine and dandy, but Scherzer or Bueller will shut down the Cardinals, and my money would be on the Dodgers bullpen.
But Scherzer or Buehler will shut down the Cardinals, then you’d be a fool to choose the Cardinals bullpen over the Dodgers
Dodgers gonna win the west anyways! Wains vs giants has had some back and forth results
The Braves will thank Wainwright for that favor. Braves are winning the Nleast. I voted Reds..
Padres fading fast, Cards will be done in by a hungry Cubs team looking to play spoiler and the Reds have the easiest schedule remaining. I agree with you and also voted Reds.
Reds need to start winning this easy games on their schedule
Reds need to start winning this easy games on their schedule if they are to make it ! They barely avoided a sweep vs pirates
You mean the Giants
It would be cool if giants could win it but I doubt it ! Dodgers are throwing out buehler, mad max , urias and now kershaw the majority of the remaining 15 games the giants can only rely on a rookie Webb right now bc gausman and disco have become pretty mediocre lately ! Dodgers are gonna win the war of attrition
Lol at including the Braves. Absolutely embarrassing as a Braves fan they actually included them.
I can’t even say I disagree with how unreliable they’ve been. But this was hilarious to make sure MLBTR covered their bases. Not even mad about it. Says a lot though.
In b4 the triggered Braves homers come in here all defensive though. So many people on this site want to believe the Braves are better than they are this year. It’s sad when people can’t assess their own team clearly.
On a side note, I almost want to vote for them just to give MLBTR props for not overlooking this very real possibility that they could choke the division away.
But I voted Reds. Easier schedule than the Cards
You’re reading way too much into the Braves inclusion. They’re an option simply because they’re the only division leader whose division crown is not assured.
In the west it’s either Dodgers or Giants. And in the central, despite a 2 game Brewer losing streak, and 5 game Cardinal winning streak, they still lead the division by 12.5 games.
Though the Braves probably will hold on to win the division, 3.5 games is just too close to make assumptions.
Last I checked Brewers haven’t clinched a playoff berth and the Cardinals still have 7 games head to head with them.
If the Braves are “probably” going to win the division as you say why include them?
Brewers are probably going to win as well. You can’t say any more than that about them. But I don’t see them on the poll in case probably doesn’t work out.
Only the Braves are on here. Because they’re not reliable enough for “probably will hold on” to exclude them as an option.
So I think I read into it just fine
Are you trying to be argumentative? That’s a fairly nonsensical post given the standings of the respective teams.
“If the Braves are “probably” going to win the division as you say why include them?”
“Probably” if far from certain. So what happens if they don’t include the Braves, and the Braves don’t win the division, but end up with the 2nd WC? That is a possibility. MLBTR would look like they didn’t know what they were talking about by leaving the Braves off of a poll as to who will be the 2nd WC.
Plus, are you math-challenged? Even if the Cards sweep all 7 games, they’re still at least 5 games out of first. The Cards elimination number is 5, so the Cards could conceivably be eliminated before their first head-to-head game.
No matter how you look at it, Brewers are about as close to a shoe-in as you can get, and the Braves are far from it.
Actually, “probably” closer to certain than not. “Maybe” is far from certain. And “not likely” is as far from certain as “probably” is close to it. Okay, well that settles that.
Oops, meant to say “not likely” is as close to impossible as “probably” is to certain.
As life-long ATL fan I have to agree that the winner of the East will be by sheer luck or whoever finishes hot at the end. ATL’s west coast trip can all but do them in since ATL is prone to lose to teams they should beat (Rockies being the most recent example) . Add to that all but zero situational hitting , inability to move a runner and score in close games, only 2 reliable SP-ers, and most days only 2 reliable relievers. Glimmers of excellence (AA has done masterful job of reconstructing after Acuna went down) are mostly offset by GLARING inconsistency and WAY too many strikeouts. Putting the ball into play often turns into baserunners – strikeouts NEVER do. Hope I’m wrong, but fear ATL will play itself into a WC slot.
@60yearfan, are you afraid to say the name of the team? ATL has a name, it’s the Braves
Pretty clear I was talking about Braves, just much easier to type ATL. In today’s lazy social media world, did not see that to be such an issue. In fact, I’m very much opposed to calls to change the Braves name because of the pretended offense at it.
They set a record for literal mediocrity before winning 16 of 18 games. The reason they aren’t buried in the division is because the Phillies and Mets aren’t good either. Whomever finishes on top will do so by sheer dumb luck.
Hoping it’s the Padres. But their pitching staff is decimated.
They’d probably be better off pulling an eagles and vying for draft position.
lol
Whoever it is I hope they face the Dodgers, and break their hearts again.
Hilarious how quickly so many posters here have come to hate the dodgers. They were bankrupt and force sold less than a decade ago!
The Braves are a bad team and may very likely not make the postseason at all. Then again, the inevitable first round exit is worse than not making the playoffs at all.
No one in the NL East is passing the Braves. The lowly Rockies and Cubs destroyed the Phillies. The Mets stink too. Braves are mediocre, but that’s more than enough.
If/when the Braves win the World Series, will you be happy? Will you be upset they didn’t perform to your expectations and did well?
Edit: That is not a prediction for this season. I am just stating an eventuality, I hope.
I’d be happy but it will never happen as long as Albies keeps hitting leadoff (among other things).
My expectations preseason are irrelevant. The Braves have been a bad team all season other than the nice run against Marlins, Nats, and O’s in August. They are a bad team whether you like to admit it or not.
Albies isn’t the ideal leadoff hitter obviously, but who would you put there in his stead? The rest of the roster has nobody better suited.
I don’t think they are a bad team. They aren’t in the same league as other division leaders, but they are still a solid team that has shown they can be quite good in spurts this season.
Admittedly, I put thought into who should be hitting leadoff and couldn’t come up with a definitive answer. I want Joc playing every day and honestly think he will fit in.
Honestly, when I access the players currently, I believe Soler is the only guy in the lineup that seems to put up quality at-bats (other than Freeman) currently. I wouldn’t mind giving him a try but I believe it is more important for the Braves to switch the lineup around.
Do you realize the Braves are only the second team in history to have 4 in fielders with 25 or more home runs.
The last west coast trip the Braves did the Dodgers changed their pitching rotation in order to throw the best 3 pitchers against the Braves even though the Dodgers next series was against the giants.
The Braves have something most teams don’t have which is massive power bats at just about every position. Plus power on the bench that would be starting for more teams. The Braves can easily put up a crooked number.
Post season everything resets regular series records don’t matter anymore.
These power bats will be suppressed by good pitching in the postseason. Besides, these home runs will be offset by the Braves terrible bullpen.
The Braves current hitting construction is not much different from last year. They couldn’t hit Dodgers pitching then, they will not hit them now.
Soler can’t bat first. His power would be wasted that high in the lineup and he would congest the base paths.
Ozzie is the best option they have since Acuna went down.
I see this argument/misconception a lot, @Fanthemson.
However: home runs rates actually *increase* in the postseason. Last year’s playoff tourney is an excellent example. In all of the games played, the winning team was out-homered a mere 3 times.
Home runs always play.
Even more so in October.
Ducky is spot on. The long ball is the difference in the postseason…
Wasn’t the first team in history to have all 4 infielders hit 25HRs a terrible Marlins team, led by Dan Uggla, that lost a million games?
They weren’t awful, they won 84 games. Jorge Cantu missed making it a 30-homer infield by one.
Benjamin. Massive power bats? They have hit 10 more homers, give or take, than the Dodgers and 10 less, give or take, than the Giants. And some of the differential might be attributed to the stadium. Hyperbole much?
Are the results of this poll binding? If not, what’s the point?
Still got to go with the Padres. Despite their recent woes, they can still score runs and the pitching isn’t terrible even with the injuries and the tough remaining schedule. The Cards are too just lacking in punch to believe their recent run is sustainable.
Not the Phillies
As a Cardinals fan, I hope I’m wrong but the Reds remaining schedule is just too easy and with Winker back in the lineup, they have to be the favorite.
Our FO’s lack of action to shore up the SP back in June resulted in too deep of a hole. Overall, we had the same schedule as the Reds so we had the same easy teams they now have but didn’t capitalize like we need to when we had the chance. If the FO had acted then, our lead would likely be insurmountable. But Mo didn’t act (then).
The way we’re playing right now, if sustained, would make the Reds remaining games a moot point but its not realistic to expect them to ride the same momentum for the next 2 weeks.
I’d love to be wrong!
The Cardinal’s bench will be their undoing. They have somehow pieced together enough pitching to keep them in games, but the bench offers nothing. Or worse, Matt Carpenter. Unless Sosa is on the bench, they might as well let their pitchers hit. Even the bullpen guys.
Fangraphs has the Braves with about a 1.7% chance of getting a WC. That seems about right. It’s NL East or bust.
I won’t go off any fangraphs poll etc. everything gets reset in the playoffs. Teams like the giants don’t have a great record against division leading teams this year. While they have destroyed below .500 teams
Maybe you should go to Fangraphs, or BB Ref, before posting inaccuracies.
Here are the records of some teams against teams that have a .500 record or better:
Giants – 40-33
Dodgers – 39-33
Brewers – 36-29
Braves – 28-36
The Giants loss only one game more than the Brewers in their 7 game head-to-head series. They’re 1-2 against the Braves, but with 3 games upcoming in SF. They’re 2-1 against the Astros, 10-9 against the Dodgers, 7-6 against the Padres, 4-2 against the A’s, and 6-1 against the Reds.
Yes, the Giants have done well against bad teams, but so has every other good team. That’s what good teams do. But the facts don’t support your contention that the Giants don’t do well against good teams, and that they’re only in first because of their record against bad ones.
The Giants have seriously outperformed their run differential all season. Defying the odds for that long is an unusual thing. It will be interesting to see if they regress to the mean at all over the last couple of weeks.
Giants are second to the dodgers in the nl and third overall in mlb In run differential!
The Giants have the 3rd highest run differential in MLB, and only 9 runs fewer than the 2nd place Astros, who play in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. The Giants run differential is better than the Brewers by 48 runs, and the Braves by 85 runs.
Their Pythagorean W/L is 92-54, which would be the 2nd best record in baseball behind only the Dodgers. I wouldn’t call that “seriously outperforming their run differential”. I sense a bit of anti-Giants bias, but that’s no surprise coming from a Dodger fan.
Wrong, in every possible way. It’s just math, and math can’t be biased. The point you missed (though I’m not sure how) is they’ve outperformed their run differential all season, which is true, whether you’ve noticed it or not. Everything else you said is totally irrelevant to the point. The Cubs have also outperformed their run differential, by 4 wins, which is true even though they are in 4th place with a losing record. Oh and the Dodgers have seriously underperformed theirs. You see how this run differential thing works? The big hint is it has nothing to do with comparing one team to another. Not even in the slightest.
Run differential has nothing to do with comparing teams performance to each other, but you can compare a team’s run differential total to a different team…
Giants this year, +184. Brewers, +133. Gap=51 math
teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/run-differential
So condescending, so so wrong
Math is racist. Thats obviously a type of bias. Duh.
I suggest you check the standing at MLB.com as well as clicking your link.. The Giants run differential is 181, not 184.
Giants this year, +181. Brewers, +133. Gap=48 math
Agree the math isn’t biased, it’s your pejorative of how you present the information.
Yes the Giants are outperforming their R/D. But to say they are “seriously outperforming” it when it’s only 3 games is hyperbole. You claim they are defying the odds”. The Brewers are outperforming their R/D by 2 runs, Are they seriously outperforming, or is one game the threshold between simply outperforming, and seriously doing so? Are the Brewers defying the odds? The Rays are outperforming their R/D by one game. Is there really that huge a difference between 1 game and 3?
After 147 games, overperforming by 3 games is miles away from “seriously”, it’s miniscule.
All your Cubs example does is point out how misleading run differential can be. The Giants run differential is +181, the Cubs is -119. Both teams have outperformed by 3, and 4 wins respectively, So wouldn’t you say the reason the Giants are in first, and the Cubs are in 4th, is the actual run differential delta, and not whether the expected, or Pythagorean W/L is more or less than actual?
I’m being faulted for comparing the actual R/D between teams. But if you look at the standings the teams at the tops of the divisions have much better R/Ds than those at the bottom. And yet, you can find teams at the tops, and bottoms of the standings, that are both outperforming and underperforming their R/D.
To put excessive value on the difference between the actual and expected W/L is a mistake.
If the giants end up in WC game with the Cardinals the Cards should start Kim. Giants can’t hit that guy for some reason, but have generally done pretty well vs Wainwright. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that though, as a giants fan.
The Phillies are finished. Mets also.
No they’re not. If they are, so are the Braves.
Don’t forget about the Rockies… they are only 8.5 out.
Unbelievable.
To sum it up:
Cardinals: Hot right now and have devil magic on their side. Definitely the front-runner.
Padres: Maybe not in free-fall anymore, but still not looking great. Schedule is brutal, but if they can take 2 of 3 from the Cardinals and split the next 6 with SF, they could have a chance.
Reds: If you can’t get fat off the Pirates and Nationals in these last two weeks, you don’t belong in the playoffs.
Phillies: Toast.
Mets: Trash organization.
My prediction: Cardinals cool off a bit and San Diego figures out how to win a few games against good teams and sneaks into WC2, only to get finished off by the Giants in the WC game.
The Friars just took two straight from the Giants.
Yup…that’s why I give the Padres a chance here.
which surprised me because they just rolled over for the Dodgers. I like the fact they play each other two more times.
Except what Mo did may as well be more effective than what the genius fans like you wanted him to do. The goal is to get into the postseason. Those moves might accomplish that without giving up any piece of the future. They expected to have Flaherty, Wainwright, Mikolas and Kim for the playoffs. That is better than anything they could have traded for without giving up big prospects. Not Mo’s fault some of those guys were injured again. People can be negative on Mo, but you have to be fair. These moves (plus the bullpen additions) deserve a lot of credit.
the goal is to win the world series. never settle for just the post season
st. louis, if not one and done, it might as well be. they aren’t going far.
Because the Padres and Mets fans were the absolute worst this year, I’m rooting for anyone but them. Talk about obnoxious clowns who counted their chickens too early.
I picked the Reds but wanted a choice for no one. I suppose someone has to get there but these are some flawed teams
At this point whichever team wants it can have it lol. I said Padres of course since their my team, but far from confident.
I am as StL as it gets and as much as September’s results have me excited, I can’t completely forget June/July/August. I’d be so much more confident with Flaherty leading the way but we have what we have at this point. Kind of what the Padres have but in reverse order. Strong early, not so much of late
It doesn’t really matter since the Mets are going to win it all this year anyway? —MF22
Giants.
We all know MetsFan22 picked the Braves in the poll thinking the Mets are gonna get first, delusional
A mediocre team, that’s for sure.
Cards got helium
The Brew Crew!
I say the Friars.
Based solely on remaining schedule – the Reds.
Cubs will win all their games and make it… Kidding… I hope it is the Reds because Cincinnati deserve a little fun…
I want a poll on who will be the 1st to 100 losses. Currently the tightest race in the sport
@Manf. I love your avatar!
Let’s all argue about stupid insignificant stuff.
Who’s going first?
The Mets Braves and Padres should all be the 3 teams going. The two other teams just aren’t as good. Just lucky they didn’t deal with as much injuries.
Mets are trash…again.
You make Joe Biden look smart…
that was low, but joe ain’t gotten to the bottom of his barrel yet
Only 2 WC teams can go meaning that it is impossible for the Mets, Pads and Braves to go. WC will be the Dodgers or Gigantes and one other team.
It’s not always the best team down the stretch but the hottest team – right now, the Cards seem to fit that bill.
I said Braves and Mets bc one of them would have won the the division. (Most likely Mets)
mets padres and braves could all make it to the playoffs
No they can’t. One WC spot is already taken by either the Dodgers or the Giants.
So, say the Braves win the NL East, then there’s only one WC spot for either the Padres or the Mets. Same as if the Mets win the division. Then it’s between Braves and Padres for one WC spot.
The only way the Padres can make the PS is as a WC. They’ve already been eliminated, and cannot win the division.
Since when are the Mets good?
The Miracle Mets of 1969 were 89-58 on September 15th. They won 100 games total, leading the Cubs by 8 games at the end of the season. Won the NLCS 3 games to none then beat the Orioles, winners of 109 games, 4-1. Excellent Mets would have also been an appropriate nickname. Tom Seaver’s September may be the greatest month of clutch pitching in modern baseball history. Encouraged to check out his stats for that last month.
To compare the 2021 Mets in any way, shape or form is misguided.
I agree. I’m not anywhere close to a Mets fan, but I was rooting for them that year. Sad to see Tom Terrific taken long before his time. He was one of the best ever.
As usual everyone talked smack on Mo, especially on trading for Lester and Happ, and signing LeBlanc. As usual, the Cardinals are right in the thick of the race at the end. The old lefties didn’t set the world on fire but they pitched collectively to ERA of 4ish and kept the team in almost every game they pitched. On the doorstep of a playoff berth with a patched together team. The defence has played a major role. The Cards won it all with only 83 reg season wins in 2006 so you can’t say it is impossible. Go Greybeards!
Oh, and they made it through the deadline without dealing Gorman. Carpenter, Miller, and Fowler fall off the payroll this fall, things looking up!
Don’t forget Mo is the idiot who signed Miller and Fowler and needlessly extended Carpenter and Mikolas. He is the reason why they have a horrible bench and did little to improve this off season. If they make it to the playoffs with the WC, that will let Mo off the hook but we all know he sucks and gets shown up regularly by smarter GMs.
The Cardinals have solid veterans in their rotation with plenty of post season games under their belt. J.A. Happ and Lester have put together very solid games to push their former teams into the playoffs in the not too distant past. The Phillies are loaded with flashy veterans. The Cards are loaded with workhorses who know how to get it done. Betting against them would be foolish. The Padres are still a young team. Teams coddle their premium prospects these days so when they finally get the call they are not prepared for a 162 game season. It was a matter of when they would fall back this year, not if.
If the Mets are on this.list, why aren’t the Tigers?
You see, baseball divides their teams into two leagues…
The Braves just haven’t inspired confidence this year, mostly because of their bullpen. I wouldn’t be surprised if they got caught by the Phillies. I think the Mets are toast.
Cardinals: Yankees of the NL.
They always seem to get that last spot.
The sad thing is that one of these 83-85 win teams will probably be in the World Series.
Why is that sad? That’s why the playoffs are awesome. Just get there, and anything can happen.
You’re joking. You actually think they’ll upset the Giants or Dodgers? Seriously?
Sam add the Brewers (in order to make it into the WS).
Right, good point.
Lots doubting the Cardinals bullpen, but are also forgetting they are going to get Hudson and (most likely) Flaherty in the pen very soon. That’s a very good bullpen when you’ve got those two plus Gallegos, a better-rested Reyes, Gallegos, and the magic that has been McFarland and Garcia. Cardinals lock it up on the last day of the season.
Replace one of the Gallegos with Cabrera. That’s the actual list
Mets coming in hot!!!!!
Lol there was no reason for them to include the Mets in this article
opps!
As long as it’s not the damn Red Birds!
As a Cardinals fan, I sure didn’t see this 11 game winning streak coming from them, especially after the way they played from May up until the calendar switched over to September. Even if they somehow do win the 2nd wildcard, I don’t believe they have a snowball’s chance in hell of beating the Giants or Dodgers in the wildcard game. Both of them are too much team and wayyyy too good for the Cardinals to take. Regardless of what happens to them the next couple of weeks whether they get in or have to wait until next year, they sure are giving their die hard fans one hell of a ride to remember and A LOT of hope going into 2022.