Red Sox Activate Chris Sale, Matt Barnes From Injured List

FPG – “Only those who weren’t intelligent enough to realize the difference between 2020 and 2021 bought into the asinine predictions of a losing record.” Your words.

Who other than me made an asinine prediction of a losing season? See how I might consider it a shot at me? If it wasn’t please explain.

All the fans like JoeBrady were mouthing off about a good season and I predicted 67 wins because Bloom did NOTHING in the off season to improve things. I also didn’t expect JD to bounce back like he did and I didn’t think 2 guys could carry the hitting and 1 guy could carry the pitching but they did. Just shows the strength of the players remaining from 2018. If it was possible to add back the other guys who have been tossed aside by Bloom, this team probably finishes ahead of TB and is the favorite in the AL. Instead, they are the 4th most talented team in the division with the 2nd best record with 2 weeks left.. So big time over-achievers.

Ownership gets obscene profits this year thanks to the efforts of a handful of guys who watched their championship team get ripped apart. Hardly seems fair but nobody promised them fair when they signed with Boston.

Lots of good signs for 2022. Big three hitters may not regress. Sale, Eovaldi, Houck and Pivetta are back. Dalbec might take another step forward and be an all-star. Duran might get a proper opportunity to prove himself and do it like Dalbec this past year. Mata will be a year closer to coming back and moving toward the MLB team. Ottavino, Hernandez, Taylor and a few of the pick-ups this year will be back in relief.

A closer is still needed, a #2 SP and a solution for the 3 DH issue needs to introduced that strengthens the team at the weak positions like 3B. I sure hope Bloom is handing out huge bonuses to JD, Bogey, Devers, Eovaldi and Barnes for saving his job. He might want to toss a bonus check to Dalbec to compensate for the disrespect he was shown this year.

You can’t set a precedent with Devers of sticking too long with a guy and then crap on Chavis, Benny and begin to crap on Dalbec without some serious ethnic questions arising. The team simply can’t get the bias out of their decision making. Mookie was right to want out. As was Price. Benny is probably relieved as is Chavis. You could tell how much they loved playing in BOS, too bad that love wasn’t reciprocated by ownership, management and the front office.

FPG – All that was needed from you was a simple “my comment wasn’t directed at you because I wasn’t on the sight at that time” but you reacted as if I offended you because those of us on the sight at that time know I was the only guy preaching 67 wins (comparable to 2020). Unlike you, I have been an active participant for years and in March I got lots of people saying optimistic things when I projected another season like last year.

Thinking JD might not rebound at age 33 after having a terrible 2020 was not a stretch by any means. In fact his OBP in 2021 isn’t comparable to any of his other seasons in Boston. As far as having the other players that I specifically mentioned that got replaced by Bloom, there were 5 and Leon was not one of them nor Hembree nor Workman so why you dragged those names into the conversation doesn’t make sense. It seemed like an angry response not a normal logical response.

The point is Benny, Chavis, Mookie and JBJ are better than Cordero, Hernandez, Verdugo, and Renfroe. The future is not as bright by replacing the former with the latter.

My Bloom hate is grounded in the removal of Betts who I considered the best home grown talent since Yaz. The removal of Benny for no reason whatsoever except he wasn’t brought there by Bloom. The removal of Price because it cost the team $16M in available payroll for 3 years. The constant stream of worthless players given tryouts when a need for substantive improvement existed.

My hatred is for Bloom’s inability to perform his job just like Cora. I’ve never met him or Cora so I have no grounds for hating either except their performance at their job which has been hugely substandard. Just like pointing out all of Devers errors doesn’t mean I hate Devers, it means I am completely dissatisfied as a fan of his defensive performance. Thus, a huge need to move him to DH where he hurts the team less. That triggers yet another issue with Bloom since he was fully aware of the two DH issue in Boston but he went out and got a 3rd DH. That’s pure incompetence.

So, if your comment wasn’t directed at me, I’m sorry for thinking it was. I don’t have an issue with you other than the one I inappropriately perceived about the preseason predictions. I am shocked that we haven’t exchanged comments before this spring. Maybe someone else used the same moniker in the past. It stands out due to the movie.

One last point. In predicting a season I look at personnel. The key to the Red Sox scoring runs during DD’s reign was the OBPs of the top hitters. Players like Mookie got on base 260 times a season. JD got on roughly 250 to 260 times in roughly 650 PAs. In 2020, JD got on 67 times in 54 games. That’s significantly down from 250 in 150. In Detroit he got on roughly 200 times in roughly 140 games. That’s quite a bit less than in Boston. In Arizona he got on 94 times in 62 games. That was close to the same number of games he played in 2020 but his ability to get on was about 50% better.

So, was JD performing at the high level playing with Mookie, Benny and Devers or were his team mates irrelevant. He played with Miggy but didn’t get on at such a high rate. Without Mookie I wasn’t sure how many long time Red Sox players slumped from the heartbreak of losing Mookie from the clubhouse and how long that slump would last. Assuming everyone would be fine a year later seemed very presumptuous. I expected JD in 2021 to be more like his Detroit days and less like his Boston days. As of today, JD has been on 201 times in 135 games. Will he make it to 250 in his next 15 games? Probably not.

Here are the numbers of the players in 2018 and 2021.

Mookie – 261 in 136 games – Verdugo – 199 in 136 games (62 less)
Bogaerts – 203 in 136 games – Bogaerts – 197 in 131 games (more)
Devers – 146 in 121 games – Devers – 206 in 143 games (62 more!)
JD – 257 in 150 games – JD – 201 in 135 games (10 to 15% less)
Moreland – 149 in 124 games – Dalbec – 121 in 122 games (close)
Nunez – 143 in 127 games – Hernandez – 165 in 121 games (slightly better)
JBJ – 157 in 144 games = Renfroe 165 in 131 games (slightly better)
Benintendi – 239 in 148 games – Cordero 32 in 48 games (HUGE drop=off)
(obviously one sided so lets try Arroyo 83 in 53 still huge drop-off)

In 2018 both Vazques and Leon caught and this year the combined catchers have better numbers. In 2018 catchers were on base 127 times for the season and in 2018 Vazquez was on 144 in 126 games and Plawecki was on 52 times in 59 games. Together 196 in 185 games played. Catcher productivity up 50%.

Obviously Benny’s numbers were never replaced and Mookie’s numbers were never replaced from an OBP perspective. That makes a huge difference in scoring runs..

The 2018 Red Sox were on base 2078 times in 162 games and in 2021 they have been on base 1783 times in 149 games. The decrease in OBP from .339 )2018) to 327 (2021) reflects the 150 less times the team will be on base compared to 2018. For me, that’s a good reason to expect less run production (876 in 2018 compared to 759 with 13 games left).

The estimate of the offense falling off from the 2018 level before Bloom dismantled the roster was a good assumption and it has proven to be true after the fact.

The current “better than expected record” for 2021 clearly has more to do with the pitching than the hitting or does it?. Lets start with should the Barnes performance in the first half been predictable? Nope. He reverted back to his old numbers in the second half. It was an anomaly.!! What about Eovaldi? For me, he deserves a lot of credit for the success of the Red Sox in 2021 They needed an ACE and he stepped up!!

Here are the pitching staffs compared:

2018 = 162 games

Sale – ERA+ of 209 with ERA.2.11 and WHIP 0.861 IP 158.0
Eovaldi – ERA+ of 133 with ERA 3.33 and WHIP 1.278 IP 54.1
Price – ERA+ of 123 with ERA 3.58 and WHIP 1.142 IP 176.0
E-Rod = ERA+ of 116 with ERA 3.82 and WHIP 1.265 IP 129.2
Porcello – ERA + of 103 with ERA 4.28 and WHIP 1.176 IP 191.1

2021 – 149 games

Eovaldi = ERA+ of 135 with ERA 3.52 and WHIP 1.156 IP 168.2
Houck – ERA+ of 127 with ERA 3.75 and WHIP 1.197 IP 57.2
Pivetta – ERA+ of 104 with ERA 4.55 and WHIP 1.318 IP 140.1
Richards – ERA+ of 103 with ERA 4.60 and WHIP 1.589 IP 129.0
Perez – ERA+ of 99 with ERA 4.79 and WHIP 1.514 IP 109.0
E-Rod – ERA+ of 95 with ERA 5.00 and WHIP 1.377 IP 1421

Looking at these 2021 atrocious numbers compared to 2018 it’s clear the pitching didn’t improve either. Yes, there is more juice in the ball during the 2021 season than the 2018 season and that accounts for some of the downturn in numbers but clearly the juice didn’t impact Eovaldi’s numbers. Yes, there was an improved grip during the first half of the season so the numbers were better then for some of the pitchers but overall this staff is nowhere near as good as the 2018 staff based on numbers.

So how can we explain a big drop in hitting and a big drop in pitching leading to a season with over 81 wins? There is only one answer that jumps out immediately – The Rest of the other ball clubs experienced even bigger drop-offs in hitting and pitching than Boston did.

Could anyone have predicted the huge drop-off in the Yankees? Yes, Boone haters or Girardi lovers since the current talent dwarfs many of Girardi’s last years but until DD showed up the NYY were perennial division winners. It has been argued by many Yankee fans that Boone is horrible and based on results alone with respect to the talent level on the roster that’s a fair assessment.

Even Baltimore who looked horrible in 2020 and was thought to be on the rise but instead went in the other direction. TB is the only team that seems to have not fallen off like others. TOR didn’t fall off as much as they didn’t rise to expectations. They may still start to click based on their huge talent level but overall they have to be disappointed in their lack of a break out season as was expected.

As I have stated many times, fans should just be thankful for all the luck that has occurred this season. Will this be a magical year when they win a ring? Maybe but the odds are against it. Has the ride up until this point been magical? Absolutely.