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The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

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We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts.  Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet.  Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point.  Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place.  Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market.  We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets.  The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars.  One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected.  For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three.  Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll.  Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt.  Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration.  He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March.  Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+.  Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards.  It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson.  He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected.  The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal.  Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game.  The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2.  Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018.  It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends.  Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+.  In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019.  Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19.  He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021.  Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors.  The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing.  A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining.  We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022.  The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3.  Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation.  We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration.  Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA.  While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01.  He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September.  Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency.  He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4.  Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate.  It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out.  Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday.  Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time.  In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best.  Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage.  Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September.  He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas?  He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5.  Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post.  The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022.  He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate.  Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6.  After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72.  Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings.  After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either.  So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable.  He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6.  Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings.  The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball.  The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout.  They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.  That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary.  Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable.  I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen.  The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7.  Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons.  He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards.  With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario.  Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017.  He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger.  Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field.  Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over.  The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8.  Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list.  Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency.  They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH.  A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano.  But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021.  It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested?  Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game.  After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties.  He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21.  Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July.  He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old.  He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining.  I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH.  The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9.  J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022.  He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020.  This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October.  By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart.  While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22.  As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit.  Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21.  A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well.  It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average.  It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position.  On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs.  While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis.  I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10.  Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here.  As such, he’s the least likely to be traded.  In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20.  Escobar is also capable of playing second base.  McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well.  It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays.  Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected.  A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20.  Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period.  A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well.  McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021.  McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month.  He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat.  30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11.  Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job.  As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well.  Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher.  Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career.  WAR is always tricky with catchers.  FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross.  The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency.  Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras.  At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload.  The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending.  A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends.  A midseason trade is a possibility as well.  The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12.  Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade.  He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19.  His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain.  Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19.  He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration.  He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return.  Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13.  Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi.  After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th.   Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month.  In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches.  In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury.  Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart.  32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year.  He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings.  You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season.  The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14.  Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees.  However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production.  This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee.  He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time.  We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year.  He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry!  We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

Rays Notes: Hess, Kiermaier, First Basemen

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Right-hander David Hess announced back in October that a cancerous germ cell tumor had been discovered in his chest, and he would be undergoing chemotherapy treatments to address the issue.  Fortunately, Hess provided a great update on his condition yesterday on Twitter, saying that he had “been ’cured’ and cleared for all activity!  There’s a spot that we’re watching but expect to clear in a few weeks.  I can’t thank everyone enough for the prayers, support, and love through this.  Time to get back to work and on a mound hopefully soon.”

A veteran of four MLB seasons, Hess joined the Rays on a minor league contract back in August and appeared in one Major League game for the team, while also twice being designated for assignment and then outrighted off the 40-man roster.  Hess elected free agency after the season but rejoined the Rays on another minors deal in November.  With this health scare now hopefully behind him, the 28-year-old Hess can now refocus on baseball and look to win a bullpen job in Spring Training.

More from the Rays…

  • Reports just prior to the lockout indicated that the Rays were getting trade interest in both Kevin Kiermaier and Joey Wendle, and Wendle indeed ended up being swapped to the Marlins.  As Kiermaier tells Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander took the step of calling the center fielder on the evening of December 1 to inform Kiermaier of this trade interest, even if Neander didn’t think a deal would be completed before the lockout began at midnight.  Between the uncertainty of the lockout and the distinct possibility that he could still get traded, it’s “wild times right now,” Kiermaier said.  Any number of teams might represent trade matches for Kiermaier as the defensive standout enters the final guaranteed year of his contact, and retaining Kiermaier might not be preferable for the Rays, given the $14.5MM still owed on that deal.  Injury concerns are a factor in any Kiermaier trade discussion, and on that front, he told Topkin that he is recovered from his arthroscopic knee surgery from early November.
  • Could a Kiermaier trade involve the Rays acquiring a right-handed bat?  Topkin writes that Tampa’s “top post-lockout priority seems to be a right-handed hitter who can play first base, and not necessarily a proven big-leaguer.”  Yandy Diaz currently sits as the right-handed hitting side of the first base platoon with Ji-Man Choi, though with Diaz also needed at third base, obtaining another first base-capable player would only add to the roster depth.  Even if that player is lacking in experience, that hasn’t stopped the Rays in the past — Diaz himself had only 299 Major League plate appearances to his name when Tampa Bay acquired him from Cleveland in the 2018-19 offseason.

Rays Discussing Joey Wendle, Kevin Kiermaier In Trade Talks

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The Rays are exploring the trade markets for both infielder Joey Wendle and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Earlier today, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that the Phillies have had trade talks surrounding Kiermaier as they continue to search for an option in center field.

Wendle, 31, was one of the Rays’ whopping 19 arbitration-eligible players entering the offseason, and teams have until 8pm ET tonight to determine whether to tender contracts to those players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $4MM salary for Wendle next season, but the Rays are deep in infield talent with the likes of Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and prospects Vidal Brujan and Taylor Walls.

There’s little chance the Rays would simply non-tender Wendle. He’s coming off a solid .265/.319/.422 batting line (106 wRC+) through 501 plate appearances in 2021, and beyond his contribution with the bat, he played above-average defense at each of second base, third base and shortstop. He’s also controlled another two seasons via arbitration, so a team in need of help at second and/or third base would surely be intrigued by the possibility of swinging a deal with the Rays.

Kiermaier is in an entirely different situation. The 31-year-old is entering the final guaranteed season of a six-year, $53.5MM contract extension and is due to earn $12MM next season (plus at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM option for the 2023 campaign). His name has been kicked about the rumor mill for years now, largely on account of his salary naturally increasing in the latter stages of that extension.

Though Kiermaier has struggled to remain healthy throughout his MLB career, it’s obvious why a Phillies club that has been defensively inept for several years would have interest in adding him to the mix. When healthy, Kiermaier is among the best defensive players on the planet, regardless of position. And while he’s been inconsistent with the bat, his composite .243/.321/.401 batting line dating back to 2016 is only about five percent below average, by measure of wRC+. Kiermaier also provides ample value on the basepaths, evidenced in part by a 77% success rate in stolen-base attempts during that time.

The Phillies have about $171MM in payroll commitments for the 2022 season and a near identical mark in luxury-tax obligations, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. Kiermaier would add $12MM to their bottom-line payroll but only about $8.91MM to their luxury ledger, thanks to the backloaded nature of his contract extension.

Philadelphia has been seeking an upgrade in center field for several years now and has already missed out on top free agent Starling Marte this winter. The Phils also held interest in Minnesota’s Byron Buxton, but the Twins signed him to a seven-year extension with a full no-trade clause, firmly closing the book on any such possibility.

It’s at least plausible that the Phils could have interest in a combo deal with the Rays that would send both Kiermaier and Wendle to the City of Brotherly Love. The Phillies have been loosely tied to infield upgrades, and while it’s not reported to be a top priority for them, Wendle would give them some cover on the left side of the infield where both Didi Gregorius and Alec Bohm are coming off lackluster seasons.

The Rays have a full 40-man roster and still need to make room for the formal addition of right-hander Corey Kluber, who agreed to a one-year, $8MM deal with Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Looking For A Match In A Kevin Kiermaier Trade

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Back in March 2017, the Rays signed Kevin Kiermaier to a six-year, $53.5MM contract extension with the intention of locking in the Gold Glover as a fixture in the Tampa Bay outfield.  As that contract enters its final guaranteed year, the team’s plan came to fruition…sort of.  Kiermaier’s bat never took the expected leap forward, as he has hit .243/.307/.399 with 43 homers over 1817 plate appearances since the start of the 2017 season, translating to below-average (93 wRC+, 94 OPS+) offensive production.  He has also played in only 486 of a possible 708 games in that five-season stretch due to a multitude of injuries.

And yet despite the missed time and the lack of consistent hitting, Kiermaier has still been worth 10.3 fWAR over the last five seasons, in large part because he remains arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder.  As per Fangraphs’ value metrics, Kiermaier has been worth $82.5MM from 2017-21, more than twice as much as his real-world earnings over the same period.

So in that sense, the Kiermaier extension has worked out for the Rays, and his presence (or lack thereof, when on the injured list) certainly hasn’t kept the team from enjoying quite a bit of on-field success.  But for a team with such a limited payroll as Tampa Bay, any player making an eight-figure salary who is providing anything less than superstar-level production might not be a fit in the Rays’ financial framework.  Indeed, it can be argued that if Kiermaier had been healthier over the last five years, the Rays might well have traded him long ago, given how often Kiermaier’s name has been whispered in trade rumors.

Heading into 2022, however, teams interested in acquiring Kiermaier face a bit less of a risk since he is only guaranteed one season’s worth of money.  The center fielder is set to earn $14.5MM in 2022 — $12MM in salary, and the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023.  If Kiermaier can stay healthy and productive, then, a team could even exercise that option and keep him around for another year, adding a bit of a potential bonus to trading for the 31-year-old (who turns 32 in April).

“Less risk” doesn’t translate to no risk, of course, given Kiermaier’s checkered injury history.  Counting on him to be an everyday center fielder just doesn’t seem feasible both health-wise and perhaps based on Kiermaier’s numbers, such as his .663 career OPS against left-handed pitching.  If a team has a fairly inexpensive, right-handed hitting center field option already in place as a platoon partner, however, this club could take the plunge on Kiermaier and just hope that anything beyond two-thirds of a season would be gravy.

It is also quite possible that a Kiermaier trade would involve more than just Kiermaier.  The Rays could certainly package him together as part of a larger multi-player swap, or maybe just include a prospect along with Kiermaier in order to better entice another team to absorb that full $14.5MM salary.

From Tampa Bay’s perspective, Kiermaier’s center field role could be relatively easily filled by Manuel Margot, a strong defender in his own right.  The Rays’ starting outfield would then project as Margot, Randy Arozarena, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips and Jordan Luplow as bench depth, Brandon Lowe and Vidal Brujan both capable of playing in the outfield, and top prospect Josh Lowe knocking on the door.  This abundance of outfield options makes Kiermaier all the more expendable.

This season’s free agent market is very short on true center fielders, as the class consists of Starling Marte and then a large group of players who can play center in a pinch, but are better suited for regular work in the corners or at other positions.  With pickings this slim on the center field front, teams in need of help up in the middle are more apt to check in with the Rays about Kiermaier, particularly clubs who miss out on Marte, or weren’t keen on meeting his asking price in the first place.

Let’s first omit the teams who either aren’t planning to contend in 2022 (the Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), teams who may be more focused on payroll cuts than contending (Athletics, Reds), or the teams who are already have pretty solid center field options, or at least options that are comparable to what Kiermaier can provide — the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Padres, Royals, and Tigers.  With these 13 clubs out of the way, let’s focus on how the remaining 16 teams break down as potential fits for a Kiermaier swap…

Teams Linked To Starling Marte

  • Phillies: The club parted ways with Odubel Herrera, and various in-house options (Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, Luke Williams) haven’t proven themselves capable of regular work at the big league level.  While the front office has implied that they have some room to spend, acquiring Kiermaier would be a relatively inexpensive way of addressing a major center field need, while allowing the Phillies to make a bigger splurge at another position.
  • Rangers: Texas is ready to spend this offseason, so Kiermaier’s salary wouldn’t be an issue for the Arlington club.  His shorter-term contract also gives the Rangers more flexibility with their outfield for any future moves next winter, when Texas might be making more of a full-on push to contend.  For what it’s worth, the Rays and Rangers have lined up on some notable trades in recent years.
  • Marlins: Kiermaier wouldn’t provide the hitting boost Miami is looking for, but there is obvious benefit to adding an elite defender to the outfield.  With Kiermaier providing extra coverage on the grass, the Marlins could be more open to adding a big hitter who is less-than-stellar with the glove (i.e. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber) for a corner outfield slot.
  • Mets: The Amazins have long been looking for a true everyday center fielder, and Kiermaier would provide a hugely-needed defensive boost in the outfield.  One obstacle, however, could be that the Mets are already loaded with left-handed hitting outfield options.
  • Giants: Kind of an imperfect match, as San Francisco might feel they already have its own version of Kiermaier in Steven Duggar.  Signing Marte would be a more natural upgrade for the Giants’ center field needs, but Duggar is younger than Kiermaier, can provide maybe 80% of the same excellent glovework, and might have some untapped hitting upside.
  • Astros: A little similar to the Giants’ situation, as the Astros might feel the combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Jose Siri can provide Kiermaier-esque production at a fraction of the price.  However, Meyers will miss at least some time at the start of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and Astros GM James Click knows Kiermaier well from Click’s time working in Tampa Bay’s front office.
  • Yankees: Since Kiermaier and Aaron Hicks have equally spotty injury histories, New York might want a more stable option to replace or platoon with Hicks.  The Rays could also balk at dealing Kiermaier to a division rival.

Other Teams With Outfield Needs

  • Rockies: Kiermaier would look good in patrolling the vast Coors Field grass, and he would only help the run-prevention efforts of a Rockies team that was quietly one of the league’s better defensive clubs.  Garrett Hampson could act as a right-handed hitting platoon partner with Kiermaier in center, though some of the Rockies’ other outfielders (Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza) could be even more expendable in other trades.
  • Nationals: Lane Thomas impressed after being acquired by the Cardinals, but since Thomas is a right-handed hitter, he could be paired with Kiermaier in center, or he could see time in left field.  If Washington did use Thomas in a more everyday capacity in left, a Kiermaier/Victor Robles could also work for center.
  • Mariners: Seattle technically already has an outfield surplus that will become even deeper once star prospect Julio Rodriguez makes his big league debut.  What the M’s don’t really have, however, is a true center field option, since Jarred Kelenic looks more suited for corner outfield work and Kyle Lewis is returning from major knee surgery.  Kiermaier would bring veteran experience and a great glove to the outfield, and the Mariners and Rays have a long history of swinging trades with each other.
  • Cubs: While Chicago could have been slotted in the “not sure how hard they’ll be trying to contend” group, the Cubs did have trade talks with the Rays about Kiermaier this past summer, even if Kiermaier’s inclusion may have been more about salary offset than a direct interest.  Still, Kiermaier would certainly fit as a regular center fielder, with Rafael Ortega then moving into something of a fourth outfield role.  Ultimately, the Cubs hope to have top prospect Brennen Davis seeing regular time in center field before the season is over, so Kiermaier would be something of a short-term fix that the Cubs might not feel they need to make with Ortega already around.
  • Braves: The World Series champions will have Ronald Acuna Jr. back at some point to join an outfield mix that includes Adam Duvall, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, and Guillermo Heredia.  There is also the lingering uncertainty surrounding Marcell Ozuna, who will likely face a suspension under the MLB/MLBPA domestic violence policy.  Bringing Kiermaier to center field would help solidify the group, but as we saw last year, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is pretty adept at rebuilding an outfield on the fly, so he might want to see how his current options play out before deciding if upgrades are necessary.

More Creative Options

  • Dodgers: Chris Taylor could leave in free agency and Cody Bellinger might not be a part of the Dodgers’ future, given his struggles over the last two regular seasons.  Therefore, the center field position might be in need of some help, and Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman was the Rays’ GM when Kiermaier was initially drafted and developed in Tampa.
  • Red Sox: Speaking of former Rays executives now running other front offices, Chaim Bloom could see Kiermaier as a way of upgrading the shaky Red Sox defense.  Enrique Hernandez’s excellent center field glovework was a bright spot within that defensive corps, but with Kiermaier on board, Hernandez would be freed up for his intended super-utility role, with second base perhaps becoming his new regular position.  As noted earlier with the Yankees, trading Kiermaier within the division might not be Tampa’s preference.
  • White Sox: Another position change would be in the offing here, as while Luis Robert has looked pretty good as a defensive center fielder, he could slide nicely into a right field role if Kiermaier was acquired.  Robert could also return to center field when a lefty starter is on the mound, thus opening up playing time for Andrew Vaughn or Adam Engel.
  • Twins: Acquiring Kiermaier might only be a possibility for Minnesota if Byron Buxton is traded….or, maybe the Twins and Rays could arrange a trade involving both Kiermaier and Buxton.  Such a deal might not really fit for either team in center field specifically, so it would need to be a pretty interesting multi-player swap to make this scenario anything more than a longshot.

Kevin Kiermaier Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery

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The Rays announced that center fielder Kevin Kiermaier recently underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee (relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Recovery is expected to take four-to-six weeks, so Kiermaier shouldn’t have much issue being ready for the start of Spring Training.

While the surgery doesn’t seem likely to impact Kiermaier’s readiness for next season, it does at least add a bit of uncertainty to his outlook in an offseason where he figures to come up in trade rumors. Kiermaier is guaranteed another $14.5MM under the terms of the extension he signed in March 2017. He’ll receive a $12MM salary next season and is due at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option covering the 2023 campaign.

That’s not an outlandish sum for a player of Kiermaier’s caliber, but it’s a large portion of the payroll for a Tampa Bay club that always winds up among the league’s lowest spenders. He’s come up in trade discussions numerous times in the past — including the lead-up to this summer’s trade deadline — and the Rays’ front office figures to discuss him with other clubs again this winter. That’s all the more likely in light of the staggering nineteen arbitration-eligible players on the roster.

Kiermaier has only once eclipsed 130 games in a season, with his high-effort style of play frequently taking a physical toll. That said, the all-out mentality is also a big driver of elite defensive marks that perennially place Kiermaier among the game’s best outfielders. That was again the case in 2021, with Defensive Runs Saved crediting the 31-year-old as 13 runs better than average in 894 2/3 innings in center field. Combined with league average offense (.259/.328/.388 over 390 plate appearances), Kiermaier was valued at around three wins above replacement by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

MLB Suspends Blue Jays’ Ryan Borucki

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SEPTEMBER 24: Borucki’s suspension was reduced to two games on appeal. He’ll miss Toronto’s next two games in Minnesota.

SEPTEMBER 23: Major League Baseball has suspended Blue Jays reliever Ryan Borucki for three games “for intentionally hitting Kevin Kiermaier of the Tampa Bay Rays with a pitch during the bottom of the eighth inning of Wednesday’s game at Tropicana Field.” Borucki has also received an undisclosed fine. He is appealing the suspension, so he’ll remain on the active roster until that appeal is heard.

As is typical, Toronto manager Charlie Montoyo has been suspended one game and fined an undisclosed amount for Borucki’s actions. Montoyo will serve his ban tonight, missing this evening’s game against the Twins.

With the Rays leading last night’s game 7-1, Borucki hit Kiermaier in the back with a first-pitch fastball. Benches cleared, and Borucki was ejected by third base umpire Joe West after the fracas was sorted out. After the game, Borucki denied that he hit Kiermaier intentionally, claiming that the ball slipped out of his hand (via ESPN).

The incident came just two days after Kiermaier was at the center of controversy between the two clubs. During Monday’s game, Kiermaier was thrown out at home plate attempting to score on a Jake Lamb throwing error. The play ended the inning and the Blue Jays departed the field. While sitting next to home plate, Kiermaier picked up a gameplan card that had been dropped by Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk (video via Arash Madani of Sportsnet). Kiermaier took the card back to the Tampa Bay dugout.

It’s not clear whether Kiermaier was aware of what was on the card at the time he picked it up. After the game, the Rays center fielder told reporters he initially believed it to be his own gameplan card, which he keeps in his pocket during games to aid his positioning on defense. Kiermaier refused to return the card to the Blue Jays once he realized its contents, upsetting some in the Toronto organization. That bad blood seemingly carried over into Wednesday’s game.

The Rays and Jays are not scheduled to play one another again this season, but it’s possible they’ll play meet in the playoffs. Tampa Bay enters play tonight with a two and a half game advantage over the Astros for the top seed in the American League. If they hold onto that position, they’ll face the winner of the AL Wild Card game in their Division Series. Toronto trails the Yankees by half a game in the race for the final AL Wild Card spot.

Rays Reinstate Shane McClanahan, Kevin Kiermaier; Designate Joey Krehbiel

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The Rays have reinstated left-hander Shane McClanahan from the 10-day injured list and outfielder Kevin Kiermaier from the COVID-related injury list.  In corresponding moves, right-hander Joey Krehbiel has been designated for assignment while righty Louis Head has once again been optioned to Triple-A Durham.  (Rays broadcaster Neil Solondz was among those to report the news.)

McClanahan is scheduled to start today’s game against the Tigers, and the southpaw will return after a minimal 10-day IL visit due to lower back tightness.  McClanahan has enjoyed a lot of success in his first MLB season, posting a 3.59 ERA/3.62 SIERA and very solid strikeout (27.5%) and walk (7.3%) rates over 22 starts and 110 1/3 innings.  While McClanahan allows a lot of hard contact, it hasn’t translated into much extra damage — if anything, McClanahan’s .339 BABIP indicates he has perhaps been a little unlucky.

While 2021 marked McClanahan’s first taste of regular season action, he actually made his big league debut during last year’s playoffs, delivering an 8.31 ERA over 4 1/3 innings.  The Rays will be hoping for much more from McClanahan in this year’s postseason, as the left-hander projects to be one of the few pitchers on Tampa’s roster that might be used more or less in a traditional starting role, though the Rays are likely to be very flexible in how they deploy their arms.

Kiermaier returns after a one-day precautionary stay on the COVID-IL, and Krehbiel (who was added to the active roster in Kiermaier’s place and demoted to Triple-A after Saturday’s game) will now hit the DFA wire.  Krehbiel’s one official day as a Ray saw him toss a scoreless inning in Saturday’s 4-3 loss to Detroit, and it gave Krehbiel his first appearance in a Major League game since 2018, when he was a member of the Diamondbacks.

Krehbiel now has four total innings over his MLB career, to go along with 492 career innings in the minors while pitching in the Angels, Diamondbacks, and Rays organizations.  Krehbiel has a 4.19 ERA in 43 innings at Triple-A Durham this year, with a 29.5% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate.  These numbers could attract some attention on the waiver wire for the 28-year-old Krehbiel, if another team thinks he could be a late bloomer as a relief pitcher.

Rays Place Kevin Kiermaier On COVID List, Select Joey Krehbiel

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1:43PM: Rays manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin) that Kiermaier is receiving another COVID test today, and already tested negative during the Rays’ series against the Blue Jays earlier this week.  The team’s feeling is that Kiermaier likely has a non-COVID sickness.

12:03PM: The Rays have placed outfielder Kevin Kiermaier on the COVID-related injury list.  Right-hander Joey Krehbiel’s contract has been selected from Triple-A to take Kiermaier’s spot on the active roster.

The official announcement from the team says that Kiermaier has been sidelined due to “general illness/symptoms,” without mention of a positive test.  Of course, league protocols stipulate that positive COVID-19 tests don’t need to be publicly announced without the player’s permission.  Kiermaier’s placement could simply be precautionary in nature while he recovers from a non-COVID illness, so he could be back on the field in only a day or two.

Kiermaier has previously visited the regular injured list twice this season, though both stints (for a quad strain and a wrist sprain) ended up being pretty close to the 10-day minimum in terms of missed time.  The 31-year-old is hitting .247/.310/.369 with four home runs over 355 plate appearances this season, and is having what has become a typical Kiermaier year — slightly below-average offense, and superb defense.  Kiermaier’s center field glovework has been as stellar as ever, thus making him a 2.0 fWAR player over 110 games even factoring in his 89 wRC+.

After tossing three innings over two games with the Diamondbacks in 2018, Krehbiel is now back for another taste of the Show.  Originally a 12th-round pick for the Angels back in the 2011 draft, Krehbiel has worked almost exclusively as a reliever over his 10 minor league seasons, and struggled once hitting the Triple-A level in Arizona’s farm system in 2018-19.

Krehbiel signed a minor league deal with Tampa Bay this past offseason, and has posted some much more intriguing numbers at Triple-A Durham.  The righty has a 4.19 ERA over 43 innings, plus a 29.5% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate, with the improved control being particularly notable since walks were an issue for Krehbiel in his past Triple-A action.  Given how the Rays cycle through relief arms, Krehbiel might only be in for another cup of coffee in the majors, or the Rays might give Krehbiel some extra work while saving other relievers for the postseason.

AL East Notes: Schwarber, Bichette, Arozarena, Kiermaier, Johnson

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Although the Red Sox got some very good news today, in the form of Chris Sale’s imminent return, there’s also some not-so-great news. Kyle Schwarber’s rehab has hit a snag, according to Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. According to McCaffrey’s sources, “Schwarber has suffered a minor setback with left groin tightness in the midst of his rehab from a right hamstring strain.” Before the injury, Schwarber having his best offensive season to date, putting up a wRC+ of 137. The Red Sox acquired him at the trade deadline with the idea to transition him to playing first base. Any increase to his time on the shelf will put a squeeze on the amount of time he has to get acquainted with his new position as the end of the season creeps closer.

Elsewhere in the AL East…

  • Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette is out of today’s lineup because of shin contusions, reports Scott Mitchell of TSN. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet connects the injury to Bichette fouling balls off himself yesterday. Bichette is in the midst of an excellent season at the plate, slashing .293/.342/.478, for a wRC+ of 123 over 473 plate appearances. At the start of today’s games, the Jays were three games back of Oakland for the AL’s final wildcard playoff spot and will surely be hoping for Bichette to return in short order, as he’s been one of their most valuable contributors this year.
  • Randy Arozarena could be activated on Tuesday, per Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times. The outfielder was placed on the COVID-IL on Friday because of a close contact. If he is expected back so quickly, it can be assumed that he has not tested positive himself. After a huge breakout in 2020, Arozarena is having another excellent season, with a wRC+ of 125 over 427 plate appearances.
  • Kevin Kiermaier left last night’s game with knee soreness but appears to have avoided serious injury, per Topkin. The outfielder is having a fourth-consecutive subpar season at the plate, slashing .232/.297/.324, producing a wRC+ of 77. Though on account of his excellent defensive work, he’s still been worth 1.1 fWAR this season.
  • DJ Johnson left today’s game with right shoulder discomfort, per Topkin. The 31-year-old was just acquired from Cleveland before the trade deadline and has had seen very limited MLB action this year. In Triple-A, he has a 3.32 ERA over 21 2/3 innings, with an excellent strikeout rate of 34% but an elevated walk rate of 10.7%.

Rays, Cubs Discussed Potential Trade Involving Tyler Glasnow And Kris Bryant/Craig Kimbrel

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The Rays were known to be in discussions with the Cubs last Friday about swinging a deal to land Kris Bryant and/or Craig Kimbrel. Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic shed some light on the talks, noting that the teams kicked around various potential frameworks — including ones worked around Tyler Glasnow or Kevin Kiermaier.

Moving Glasnow would’ve been part of a larger package deal that sent Bryant and Kimbrel to Tampa Bay, Rosenthal writes. It’d have been a fascinating development, since Glasnow’s one of the best pitchers in the league when healthy but facing a prolonged absence. The 27-year-old tossed 88 innings of 2.66 ERA/2.89 SIERA ball before suffering a UCL tear in mid-June. He’s spent the past six weeks attempting to rehab the injury, but reports from over the weekend suggest he’s likely to require Tommy John surgery, which would keep him out of action for most or all of the 2022 season.

The Rays made the Cubs aware of that possibility in discussions, Rosenthal notes; Tampa Bay wasn’t hoping to sneak Glasnow through a trade without the Cubs noticing he would probably need to go under the knife. Indeed, Glasnow’s forthcoming surgery was a significant roadblock in that kind of deal getting done.

Glasnow is under team control through 2023 via arbitration. If the right-hander were to miss the entirety of next season, the Cubs would’ve only been able to count on Glasnow for one year before he hit free agency. There’d then be real questions about how many innings he could responsibly take on in 2023 after missing nearly two years. The Rays would’ve had to include additional prospects to make that happen, and Rosenthal writes the team was unwilling to part with any of Wander Franco, Vidal Bruján, Shane Baz, Josh Lowe or Taylor Walls to do so with Bryant reaching free agency a few months from now.

The Kiermaier talks were a little more straightforward, as Rosenthal notes those discussions didn’t involve Kimbrel at all. Kiermaier’s inclusion in any sort of Bryant deal would’ve been to offset salary. (Bryant is playing out the season on a $19.5MM contract, while Kiermaier is making $11.5MM this year and has a $12MM guarantee for 2022, along with a $2.5MM buyout on a 2023 club option). In that instance as well, the Rays would obviously have had to send prospects along with Kiermaier to land Bryant.

Ultimately, the Rays didn’t wind up with either player, as the Cubs moved them in separate deals. Chicago sent Bryant to San Francisco for prospects Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian, while Kimbrel landed with the White Sox for second baseman Nick Madrigal and reliever Codi Heuer. In Madrigal, the Cubs did land an injured big leaguer but he’s expected to be ready by the start of the 2022 season and comes with three more years of team control than does Glasnow.

Since the Cubs – Rays talks didn’t come to fruition, the Rays’ openness to discuss notable players on the big league roster is more of an interesting footnote than anything else. It does, however, speak to the possibility of Tampa Bay exploring something similar this offseason.

Glasnow is making $4MM this season, and his high-quality first half should land him a decent raise in arbitration this winter. His 2022 salary will probably end up somewhere between $6-8MM; even if he doesn’t pitch next season, he’d make the same amount in 2023. That’s still likely to appeal to many teams given Glasnow’s talent, but it’s a fairly sizable chunk of the Rays’ payroll, which typically lands between $60MM and $80MM. It’s not inconceivable the Rays could look to market Glasnow this offseason to a bigger-spending club, freeing up payroll space and either addressing a deficiency elsewhere on the big league team or recouping prospect talent while opening a 40-man roster spot.

That’s an entirely speculative scenario, to be clear; Rosenthal doesn’t suggest Tampa Bay is actively looking to trade Glasnow or feels obligated to shed salary over the offseason. But his involvement in discussions this summer — regardless of how far those talks actually progressed — serves as another reminder of the Rays’ (and teams’ generally) willingness to consider seemingly off-the-wall possibilities as part of a broader effort to set the organization up in both the present and future.

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