For the first time since before Bryce Harper played for Washington, the Nationals are basement dwellers in the NL East for consecutive seasons. Coming off their title season in 2019, their 26-34 finish in the truncated 2020 was easy to write-off as a result of the pandemic, but after 97 losses in 2021, there’s little doubt left: the Nationals need a reboot.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Stephen Strasburg, SP: $175MM through 2026 ($80MM deferred to 2027-2029)
- Patrick Corbin, SP: $82.25MM through 2024 ($10MM deferred to 2025)
- Will Harris, RP: $8MM in 2022
- Cesar Hernandez: $4MM in 2022
- Alcides Escobar: $1MM in 2022
- 2022 commitments: $71.42MM
- Total long-term commitments: $270.25MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Juan Soto – $16.2MM
- Josh Bell – $10MM
- Joe Ross – $3MM
- Erick Fedde – $1.9MM
- Victor Robles – $1.7MM
- Austin Voth – $1.0MM
- Andrew Stevenson – $850K
- Tanner Rainey – $800K
Free Agents
- Gerardo Parra, Ryan Zimmerman, Jordy Mercer, Alex Avila (retired), Mike Ford (DFA), Ryne Harper (DFA), Wander Suero (DFA)
It’s been barely two years since Howie Kendrick scraped paint off the Astros’ right field foul pole, but the mainstays from that 2019 title team are almost all gone now. The trade deadline deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers was a gut punch for the fanbase and the unofficial end to the first competitive era of Nationals baseball. The Nats got their rings at what now seems like the last possible moment for the Scherzer/Strasburg era.
They weathered the loss of Harper for that one magical season, but since their road warrior heroics at Minute Maid Park, the franchise has been in relative disarray. Losing mainstays like Anthony Rendon and Sean Doolittle changed the complexion of the roster, but no loss will be felt quite like Scherzer and Turner. Scherzer and Turner are two of the more visually stunning talents in the game as well as two of the most productive at their positions. After years of enjoying the brute force of Scherzer’s personality and Turner’s whiplash-inducing speed/power combo, the Nats no longer offer a symphony of baseball talent to the crowds in Southeast DC – they now have a one-man-band.
That said: Juan Soto is a gem. Had the Nationals been anywhere near the playoffs, the 22-year-old might have his first MVP award. Instead, a .313/465/.534 campaign yielded “just” his first All-Star appearance and second silver slugger. He is the runner-up in MVP voting, somehow notching his third top-10 finish in four seasons. He might have the best plate discipline of any hitter since Barry Bonds, and despite his age, he’s now led the Majors in on-base percentage for two years running.
There is no praise too high for Soto. Given a league-wide re-draft, Soto would be a top-5 pick, full stop. The only thing keeping him from being among the highest jersey sales in the league is his market and physical skills that don’t jump out of the screen as it does for the three juniors, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Even the downsides to his game are fairly innocuous: Soto won’t steal 30 bases, and he doesn’t play a premium position. Reach deep and you could say that his power is relatively mortal (.221 ISO this season, 29 home runs). He may not be a power hitter of the strictest order, but he’s on his way. It’s a tool in his toolbelt and an area of potential growth as he ages into his physical prime.
He’s not going to get any faster, but he has shown an ability and willingness to improve in the outfield, even as he shifted from left to right field. It’s certainly possible to imagine a future where Soto spends some time as a designated hitter, but that’s not going to bother Nats’ fans. Where he plays in the field isn’t nearly as pressing as which field he calls home.
With three years until Soto’s free agency, the Nationals have entered the countdown era. It’s easy to imagine the cloud of Soto’s potential departure hanging over this franchise much like Kris Bryant’s free agency timeline dominated narratives for the post-title Cubs. Unfortunately, as a Scott Boras client, Soto isn’t likely to surrender his leverage anytime soon. And it’s hard to ignore the Nats’ recent habit of letting giant stars walk out the door.
The optimists would cite Boras’ purportedly good relationship with Nats’ ownership. Sure, Rendon and Harper both walked, but it was unclear how fully committed the Nats were to bring them back. They committed to Strasburg, and he did return – for better or for worse.
For Soto, it ought to help that he already won a ring in Washington, but GM Mike Rizzo will probably have to convince ownership to make Soto the richest man in the game in order to lock him up long-term. Luckily, the Nats are one of many teams that can’t really be priced out for any one free agent. Whatever the cost, they can pay it if they’re willing.
Regardless, the next three seasons are likely to play out as an extended courtship wherein Rizzo and owner Mark Lerner try to convince Soto that they can build a competitive engine around him that’s worth helming. Ironically, the Nationals are asking the Majors’ walks and OBP leader for patience.
That process began in earnest with the Scherzer/Turner trade. The move wasn’t just about sucking a last bit of value from Scherzer before he departed in free agency. It kickstarted a retooling effort around Soto. That much was evident in their return package.
Josiah Gray stepped directly into Scherzer’s rotation spot, and they need to see him turn into a mid-rotation starter by the end of 2022. The big fish of the deal, however, was Keibert Ruiz, a long-touted catching prospect who may replace Victor Robles as Soto’s primary running mate on the position player side. Ruiz may not be a middle-of-the-order bat, but he makes contact, should hit for power, and if he turns into a first division catcher as expected, he’ll play a large role in managing the pitching staff.
Amazingly, entering his age-23 season, Ruiz will be young for a rookie in his first full season, and still older than Soto. Regardless, after posting a 101 wRC+ in 96 plate appearances, which included a particularly resilient end to the year (112 wRC+ in Sept/Oct), Ruiz will enter 2022 as Washington’s starting catcher. That’s an exciting development for Nats fans and a good first step to the “Courting Soto” era of Nats’ baseball, but it’s not enough to make them a contender.
Side note: Riley Adams, acquired from the Blue Jays for Brad Hand before the Dodgers’ deal, nicely complements Ruiz as the backup catcher, even if he does look as big as a house crouching behind the dish. After years of Matt Wieters underperformance and the steady-but-uninspiring upgrade to Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals have their most exciting catchers’ room, perhaps, in franchise history.
Next to Soto in the outfield, Robles is the dream, but Lane Thomas is the reality. Acquired in an under-the-radar deal that sent Jon Lester to the Cardinals, Thomas took off while getting playing time as the Nats’ everyday centerfielder. The 26-year-old hit .270/.364/.489 in 206 plate appearances – easily the most opportunity he’s seen in the bigs. Thomas figures to see more chances in 2022, but what that means for Robles isn’t totally clear. Thomas could return to a fourth outfielder role, but since the Nats don’t currently have a left fielder, it’s difficult to speculate. Robles may have to play himself back into a regular role if he’s able.
As for left field, Yadiel Hernandez posted a solid 98 wRC+, though that number was dragged down by a 79 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter. But he’s also 34-years-old and not probably more than a backup plan for Washington. Andrew Stevenson is the other name on the roster, and he’s proven best as a fourth or fifth option coming off the bench. There’s likely to be another outfielder to join this group once the lockout is resolved. Think Kyle Schwarber again, though probably not Kyle Schwarber again.
Another potential option that they explored in 2021 was using Josh Bell in left field. That’s not an ideal plan for a guy most people think is best-suited as a designated hitter. Bell could very well be dealt before the start of the season, but if not, he’s more likely to be the everyday first baseman and a break-in-case-of-emergency option in the grass.
At shortstop, Alcides Escobar made it back to the Majors for the first time in years, managed to play respectably, and earned a one-year, $1MM deal to stay in Washington. He’s the presumptive starter heading into the year, but the financial commitment isn’t exactly starter’s money. They could surprise everyone by making a play for Carlos Correa, and they could afford it, but there’s been little indication that Rizzo is ready to make that kind of splash this offseason.
That said, there’s not necessarily a shortstop of the future anywhere in the minors until you get to Jackson Cluff or young Brady House. The latter is years away and could end up at third base anyhow. Luis Garcia may be the answer the Nats are ready to settle on. He was a top prospect who was rushed to the Majors in 2020, and there have been growing pains since. He’s a second baseman, but since Cesar Hernandez was brought in on a one-year, $4MM deal, the keystone may be occupied. That could signal a desire for the 21-year-old to get more seasoning time in the minors, and it could mean that they are ready to let Garcia play short. Both options are somewhere in the playbook.
At the hot corner, time is running out for Carter Kieboom. The former top prospect is still just 24, but he’s put up successive seasons of 67 and 68 wRC+, and it’s not as if he’s been a stud with the glove. Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of other options for the Nationals right now. They’ve been tied at times to Bryant, and it’s been suggested that they could be a landing spot for a salary dump like Mike Moustakas, but that’s all speculative for now.
For the first part of the offseason at least, the Nationals took a throw-as-many-options-at-the-wall-as-possible approach. They signed Dee Strange-Gordon, Maikel Franco, and Richard Urena to minor league contracts. They claimed fleet-footed Lucius Fox off waivers from the Orioles. They brought back long-time extra body Adrian Sanchez on a minor league deal. They snagged Andrew Young off waivers from the Diamondbacks. That’s a veteran group that looks very Nationals-y, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or a pair of them make the roster.
The real problem for the Nationals, however, is the pitching. The rotation is up there as the most uncertain group in all of baseball. Gray is still establishing himself, Strasburg is perennially injured, and Corbin was among the worst rotation arms in baseball last season. If he can figure out his slider, and Stras can get himself back on the mound, there’s some ceiling for this group, but it’s not a real likely potentiality.
Joe Ross (again) flashed some ability to be a mid-range starter, but he (again) finished the year on the injured list. Ross looks to have avoided Tommy John surgery for now, but the rest-and-rehab approach doesn’t always end well. Counting on Ross for quality innings is about as reckless as counting on Strasburg, Corbin, and Gray.
Josh Rogers and Paolo Espino would be in the 6-10 range for most organizations, but they are starters number four and five as of right now. Espino has been surprisingly productive for an older player without much Majors experience, and Rogers brings plenty of character, but not much of a track record. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth have both started without a whole lot of success, but they’re there in the bullpen just in case.
There are, however, some interesting arms on the horizon. Cade Cavalli is the biggest of the bunch, and he’s rising fast enough that he could surprise and make it to the Majors next year. The Nationals need Cavalli to stay healthy and develop into an impact arm. He looked the part in Double-A before getting touched up a bit in seven starts in Triple-A, where he should return to start 2022. Jackson Rutledge, Aldo Ramirez, Andry Lara, and Mason Denaburg are all names worth tracking, but they aren’t near enough to the Majors to make a difference.
For prospect arms capable of logging significant big league innings, look to Seth Romero, Joan Adon, Gerardo Carrillo, or maybe Evan Lee, all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Cole Henry is highly thought of within the organization, but he has just 8 starts in High-A and would have to be added to the 40-man. Carrillo was part of the Scherzer trade, and though he’s not a top prospect, an organization change always sets off alarms for a development jump. There’s no explicit evidence for that jump yet, and he has yet to make a stop in Triple-A.
On the whole, the Nats are beginning to put together an interesting collection of depth arms, but they don’t have the foundational pieces in the Majors. Not in the rotation, and not in the bullpen. They big adieu to Suero, a regular-use, one-pitch setup arm that’s been in the bullpen for years, and they DFA’ed Ryne Harper as well, another veteran option. Will Harris is the most proven arm remaining in the pen, but he hasn’t been healthy enough to prove it since yielding that long ball to Kendrick while with the Astros way back when.
Kyle Finnegan laid claim to the closer’s role, saving 11 games over 68 appearances with a 3.55 ERA/4.62 FIP. He’d be a useful arm in a first division pen, but not someone to build around. Tanner Rainey has the best stuff, but he took a step back last year and has struggled with consistency throughout his career. There’s a world in which Rainey goes big-time in ’22, but as with most of the Nats’ arms, Rainey’s stardom is more dream than reality right now.
Patrick Murphy was an interesting pickup worth watching as a guy who can go short or long, depending on need. The rest of the bullpen is very much a work in progress with Fedde, Voth, and late-developing Andres Machado highest on the pecking order.
In the first part of free agency, the Nationals weren’t very active, and it shows in the state of their roster. They need a left fielder and a DH/first baseman to split time with Bell if the DH arrives in the National League. Zimmerman could return still, and he’d fit nicely on a cheap contract as a right-handed complement for Bell, but he’s not an everyday player anymore.
They could stand upgrades at shortstop and third base, though it’s probably not worth displacing Garcia/Kieboom unless they get a significant star (and that seems unlikely this offseason). Besides, any money they have to spend should really be committed to pitching, though there’s not as much available on the free-agent market.
Long-term, Corbin has “just” three years left on his deal, so there’s light at the end of the tunnel. As of now, they’re still roughly $50MM under their 2021 payroll, and even that $162MM number was their lowest in years. Strasburg’s money is significant, and Boras willing, they’ll plunk down a king’s ransom for Soto at some point. But otherwise, their ledger is mostly empty. Unfortunately, so is their talent pool.
The Nationals are a slow-and-steady franchise, and with the most patient superstar in baseball now the centerpiece of their organization, they’re playing for the future. With just three years left of team control for Soto, that future is fast approaching. The Nats will strike to build a contender around Soto before he leaves. We know that much. We just don’t know the when or the how. To crack those codes, all we need is patience.
Barkerboy
The Nats will lose 100 for sure. Soto may still win the MVP!
adc6r
The last time the Nats lost that many games in 2 seasons there was no farm system [can you say Sledge… better yet can you remember Sledge?] and very little at the MLB level.
The return from the sell off brings more than a few pieces for the next two years. Add to that, the hopeful improvement of health and it is a different world from the one your looking at now.
But all of this conjecture is premature. Without the CBA we don’t even know what the actual roster positions will be. How many Active Roster in the COVID era? Taxi Squads? DH?
Please, Hammer. Don't hurt 'em.
It is going to be kind of sad watching one of the games best players waste his talents on a bad team next year. It reminds me of A-Rod’s early years with the Rangers. At least the last 2 years there was a slim chance the Nats could compete. Now without Scherzer, Turner, Schwarber and even Lester we know they won’t. Maybe the Nats just like dumping players whose last names end in E R.
Armaments216
The only player they dumped was Trea Turner, and only his 1 remaining arbitration season at that. The rest all became feee agents at the end of the 2021 season. The Nats were going to be rebuilding this year no matter what they did last season.
Nico480
I’ve been thinking for a while that the nats and pads can match up on a bad contract swap that’ll benefit both teams possibly.
Corbin for hosmer and Myers.
If hosmer opts in to the last 3/39 total salary due to both players is just over 82m.
Corbin is due just over 82m over the next three years.
It benefits the nats cause it gives them a few major league position players and potential trade chips if either bounces back. The padres pick up a guy who could be an innings eater In back end of their rotation.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Hosmer and Myers aren’t bouncing back. Corbin doesn’t turn 32 until July so there’s a chance.
JoeBrady
Hosmer and Myers aren’t bouncing back.
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That’s the way I see it. It is still entirely possible for Corbin to have a Darvish-like return. He had a 3.82 ERA in September. I doubt they can ever dump his entire salary, but if he has a 3.82 ERA at the AS break, the Nats will get inquiries.
It feels almost impossible that Hosmer will ever get interest until maybe his last year.
Johnmac94
recall when John Thompson said: “I cannot coach 3-car garage kids to want to win”; once a lot of these guys get the money, even if they want to try, the fire is out.
yankeesfanbutdonthateme
I can see this working. I know Corbin had a rough season but I wonder if a change of scenery might do him good. Maybe the padres will throw in a prospect in order to make the Nats want the deal a little more. That would probably line up a bit better.
Samuel
@ Nico480;
The Nationals are currently a mess. They’ll be sifting through players hoping to find a few they can keep for the next run.
They have a 1B in Bell, and are waiting to see if Ryan Zimmerman would like to play another year. Consequently, they have no use for Hosmer (doesn’t he have a limited NTC?). As for Myers – he would lock up a corner OF for 2 years, when they want to audition players there.
It’s not so much a bad trade, it’s more that they’d have 2 position players that they won’t keep for their next run taking time from players that might. Meanwhile they’d have to bring in a veteran arm to eat 160-180 innings in each of the next 2 years. There’s nothing to be gained.
Stop Giving Billionaires Money
@samuel
I don’t think nico’s trade are realistic but Ryan Zimmerman isn’t blocking anyone on the future Nats.
The Nats aren’t t close to contending, the article is optimistic
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
Rsox
Nats could put Lane Thomas in LF if Robles rebounds. More likely the Nats should look to see what they can find on a one year deal (maybe Joc, Pham, or one of the Dickerson’s)
I also have to believe they will look to add at least one or two starters on minor league deals (Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, Jose Urena)
Nats are probably looking at a last place finish next season
adc6r
Actually the new CBA may include a lottery system for the first pick to encourage teams to play to win through the end…
Late preseason is when Rizzo gets his best work done
Ivan Grushenko
I’m guessing Gary Carter was in the most exciting catchers room in “franchise” history
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Nationals should offer Soto now an 11 year 385 million extension, no opt outs and a no trade clause for the first ten years. And he should take it.
Nationals will be better than Pirates or Dbacks in 2022, otherwise worst team in NL, barring unexpected additions, subtractions or injuries.
novaccine4me
That won’t be nearly enough. He’s going to get 10 years 500 plus million from any team.
JoeBrady
Sure, but that’s in 2025. There is something to be said about guaranteeing $385M today against $500M three years from now. It’s not like he hasn’t had injuries. Yordan Alvarez exploded into the scene just like Soto, but hasn’t been able to stay on the field.
who_ibi_zme
Besides Harper and Rendon selling out, look at the Eaton trade (3 top pitching prospects) the Melancon trade (from Pittsburgh,2 prospects) Those were pitchers who would be in the starting rotation now.They’ll be battling for Last for a couple seasons. It’s going to take a couple big free agent signings to keep Soto, cause the talent around now (pitching and hitters) just aren’t on his level of championship capacity.
CalcetinesBlancos
Why would Rizzo have the will to let both Harper and Rendon walk, but then go out and sign Correa? The guy is much too smart to get roped into that nonsense, especially after that Stras deal.
adc6r
What that would say to me is Kieboom is a trade chip. It would be a 10 year deal so it would set the tone for Soto’s impending deal.
The reason it doesn’t make sense is the Nats just got out form under an inflated payroll. committing all that room to two players is a hard sell long term. the only relief would be raising the soft cap which in recent years isn’t a given
Sinhalo75
“Had the Nationals been anywhere near the playoffs, the 22-year-old might have his first MVP award.”
Interesting- so you’re saying that how a team finishes relative to a player’s individual performance has or should have an impact on MVP voting. That logic begs Trout did not deserve all his MVP awards and Ohtani should give his back.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Halo75:
Only when it is close should it be a tie-breaker to be on a team that was still realistically competing for the playoffs.very late in the season.
Sinhalo75
So Trout should have fewer or none?
Nicest statline =/= MVP
Stop Giving Billionaires Money
None. He’s a sub .200 hitter in the playoffs for a reason. Trout is the MVP if you don’t value winning.
Sinhalo75
I understand what you’re saying and agree- but only to a certain degree. You should probably know that award voting is done at the conclusion of the regular season and does not include the playoffs, in order for you to participate in such conversations better.
prov356
nerd – Do you know how many at bats Trout has had in the playoffs?
gbs42
prov356, that would be a massive total of 12 AB, 15 PA. Obviously, he’s a horrible player.
miltpappas
That’s where “Valuable” plays in. And, while you’re collecting trophies, get Cal Ripken’s MVP award back, too.
Ancient Expos Fan
And can someone get Andre Dawson’s MVP award while we are revising history?
Sinhalo75
49 hrs on a last place team was really valuable /s
They did quite an about face in the 1988 NL MVP voting seemingly realizing the faux pas in 1987.
gbs42
How does the value of a player’s 49 HR increase if he has better teammates?
Sinhalo75
To allude to the Ralph Kiner story they could’ve finished last without him. It’s like becoming a millionaire which that’s great but everyone else is a trillionaire which makes them millions less valuable. Hawk and anyone else would trade that hardware for a ring any day of the week.
gbs42
Just because the team is bad overall doesn’t mean a particular player is. Yes, most players would trade an MVP for a World Series title, but that’s a different argument. And I don’t get the relevance of the millionaire/trillionaire analogy.
Sinhalo75
Terrible demonstration of misunderstanding a concept. Nowhere did anyone say, infer or imply a team being bad means a player that does well is bad. The analogy- A guy exploding with 49 hr is really good but there were many other players that played more prominent roles in the success of their teams.
Ted
Is there any doubt that team performance plays a role in the voting results? Whether it should is another matter.
Rsox
We’ve seen players on last place teams win MVP before, but honestly should a player on a last place team win the award.
How many more games would the Cubs have lost without Andre Dawson in 1987 or the Rangers without ARod in 2003? Isn’t valuable to losing sort of an oxymoron?
gbs42
To me, TC’s point is that some voters would have been more likely to give additional support to Soto if he had been on a playoff team. Whether that really should be much of a factor is up for debate. And I’m not reading into it that TC feels this way.
My opinion is MVP should go to the best player. No one can have much control over how well or how poorly their teammates perform.
Responding specifically to Rsox’s examples, Dawson’s and A-Rod’s teams would have lost several more games without them. I don’t consider “valuable to losing” to be an oxymoron. Their performances made their teams better.
Mystery Team
Man that Strasburg contract looms so large. $176 million left to pay that IL devotee.
JoeBrady
Sure, but what the chances of him getting hurt? It might be the craziest signing I’ve ever seen.
Ted
Massively rich owner and Stras won them a ring near single-handedly. No regrets.
prov356
I love the Nats but I won’t go to another game at Nats stadium based on the way one employee treated me earlier this year and the apathy I received from the front office when I reached out about it. It was blatant discrimination. It’s my personal boycott. I don’t expect any of you to join me.
JoeBrady
They were very nice to me, but of course, they were in Montreal at the time.
Want to share?
prov356
Sure JoeBrady – It was a stadium contract employee, not anyone who worked for the Nats. Without specifics, she literally made up a policy to enforce on me when she left everyone around me alone doing exactly what I was doing. When I questioned her about it, she gave me a warning that I would be ejected from the stadium if I questioned her further. I asked other employees about the “policy” and they said it was made up. To make matters worse, I saw her later on my way out and she was “violating” the same “policy” she threatened to boot me for.
I was sitting in an expensive field level seat behind home plate. I don’t drink, and I was by myself on a business trip. When I explained the circumstances to the administration office both on the telephone and in a detailed email, I was ghosted with no further response.
So, I am boycotting Nats stadium.
dclivejazz
It’s hard to sympathize with your claim of being discriminated against according to some non-existent policy without you specifying exactly what that was.
If it was being asked to put on a mask when you were not actively eating or drinking back when the Nats had people sitting in pods, yes they vigorously enforced that policy in April and May, At the time that was the policy in DC and it seemed like overkill given one was sitting in a socially-distant pod. Still, it was the policy for everyone, and, yes, they did enforce it widely.
prov356
Like I said, it was a specific scenario that I was singled out for that literally everyone around me was doing including the woman who threatened to boot me. I usually don’t make a stink, but this was blatant and obvious.
prov356
I’m not asking for sympathy BTW, jazz. I couldn’t care less about sympathy. Just explaining it because Joe Brady, who is a good dude on here, asked me to. Cheers.
to4
The Nats biggest mistake was to prioritize Strasburg over Harper/Rendon. I would have brought back those 2, and signed Turner/Soto already to big extensions if I was the ownership. They were the Nats core players to keep. Decent pitching, can always be found and they had and could have kept Scherzer too! Going to 2022, they would have sport the following.
1.Robles CF
2.Soto LF
3.Turner SS
4.Harper RF
5.Rendon DH
6.Bell 1B
7.Kieboom 3B
8.Adams C
9.Garcia 2B
They would have still had one of the best heart of the order in All of baseball and possibly, a solid line up. They would only had to focus on pitching assuming they would have re-sign Max! They could have gone after Synderguaard for 1 year and it would have been competitive enough.
They also should’ve never ever traded Giolito away!
1.Scherzer
2.Giolito
3.Synderguaard
4.Corbin
5.Ross/Rogers
Than again, no one has a Crystal Ball, but would have definitely chosen hitting over pitching. Pitching is too unpredictable…. Settle our offence 1st, then go hunting for pitching!
dclivejazz
There was a maximum price they were willing to pay Harper and Rendon, which was pretty high, but not high enough for the players. I appreciate how much each contributed to the Nats, but I wouldn’t have gone overboard on either, especially Rendon. You can see how he is aging on the Angels.
Where I fault the Nats was not making sure they seriously tried to lock up Turner earlier.
As for extending Stras on a major deal, that’s a whole separate issue but at least it was consistent with Rizzo’s philosophy of team building around a rotation.
Armaments216
Dclivejazz – I completely agree about Harper and Rendon – Nats were willing to spend up to a point (see Strasburg twice, Scherzer once, etc) but not above. Same may be true for Turner. No one knows what extension offers were on the table.
On top of the Strasburg contract, a mega-deal for Turner might have limited what they could offer Soto. And if I had to pick I’m definitely choosing Soto. Trea Turner will be 29 this season. Like with Rendon, there’s much more of a risk that you’re mostly paying for past performance.
steveng
I don’t think the money was there for your “should have/could have been” scenario. Signing Harper would probably have meant no Rendon and there are other dominoes in your version. Turner and Soto combined would be $80 million per year, which doesn’t work if Harper and Rendon are costing upwards of $60 million per year combined.
I would add as well…no evidence that Rendon wanted to stay. Need two to make a deal. Harper would have been resigned if he and Boras hadn’t played a game of “more money if we wait until Spring. ” Nats were very clear they weren’t going to wait, with NO reason to disbelieve them.
The Eaton trade was always ill-conceived. Looks worse because Eaton was injured for 2 seasons. But the key is: what did the WS do with Giolito that the Nationals failed to do? Knowing that would help with all the young pitchers they have now.
By the way, with his injury history and having a QO attached to him, I think most of baseball believes his signing by the Angel’s for $20 million is crazy. He may produce, but few teams would even consider taking on this risk.
to4
True that, but it would still be one heck of a line up!
to4
They could have paid all 4 hitters and still have money left to spend for the rest.
$80+$60 M $140 M assuming they want to compete and make revenue, they got about $70 M to play with before passing the luxury tax threshold which is enough to get some pitching here and round up the rest of the roster. Scherzer of course, wouldn’t been able to come back, but would have net that pitching prospect from LA anyways!
steveng
Exploring in my mind whether you are right, even in theory. Four players would tie up $140 million and you would have $70 million to fill the remaing 22 slots or an average of $3 million per player. Useful link on average and median baseball salaries is here: en.as.com/en/2021/10/08/mlb/1633685987_178363.html
The 22 would have to include 5 starting pitchers, an entire bull pen, a CF’er, first and second basemen, catchers, and back-ups for everyone. If you keep Josh Bell ($10 million in arbitration), you have $60 million for 21 players.
To make this work, you would have to have: enough pre-arb players who are producing at a major league level.; leave no margin for trade deadline adjustments; and hope for no injuries. Also you have to hope that your arbitation players are good enough to win, but not good enough to get large raises.
So, theory yes, but hard to imagine. Also, how does this compare to the reality of the disappointing Angels–lots of offensive firepower but even with money to spend can’t put together a pitching rotation to win?
That was fun. Thank you for raising the interesting question.
PS….if they had the 4 offensive stars, there is no way they trade Scherzer at the deadline, so probably shouldn’t count Gray in the 22 players for $70 million.
to4
They could have still gone over the limit cap on if they chose to!
NatsGuy
But the key is: what did the WS do with Giolito that the Nationals failed to do? Knowing that would help with all the young pitchers they have now.
They let him pitch 173+ innings with a 6.13 ERA (5.56 FIP) and leading the league in earned runs and walks in 2018. You know, like Guaranteed Rate reminds us every half-inning… “2018, worst pitcher in baseball.” That’s something the Nationals never could have done when they were trying to contend.
Johnmac94
“Sean Doolittle changed the complexion of the roster”: Wahington DC lost their communist.
Ghost Pepper
Ruiz will be fun to watch now and in the future.
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