By Mark Polishuk | at
MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series is complete. We broke down what all 30 teams might have in store for their winter moves, so be sure to check in with this post to find your favorite team’s entry is online. The completed entries….
NL East
NL Central
NL West
AL East
AL Central
AL West
By TC Zencka | at
Simply put: The Tigers are on the rise. They are going to be a popular pick to jump into the field of contenders in 2022 – and for good reason. Though a 77-85 record might not look like a team on the rise, they started the year with an 8-19 month of April and looked downright respectable the rest of the way. Following that disastrous first month, they went 69-66, finishing with their best record since 2016.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
The Tigers were one of the game’s most active teams in free agency prior to the lockout. With very little long-term money on the books, and a totally clean ledger after 2023, the Tigers had the leeway and the inclination to add premier talent this winter. Though many expected the Tigers to make a play to reunite Carlos Correa and his former manager A.J. Hinch, the Tigers chose to spread their money around instead.
Javier Baez isn’t the talent that Correa is, but he’s still a monster upgrade over Niko Goodrum, who was designated for assignment and released to free agency. Baez will stabilize the infield defense and provide a fairly significant safety blanket for Detroit’s young starting staff. He’s a mixed bag at the plate, but he’s coming off a 116 wRC+ season, and if nothing else, he’s an entertainment machine. Even his glove is a little more erratic than his supporters would like to admit, but the Bengals can content themselves with knowing they had more or less a clean slate financially and a massive hole to fill at short.
Shortstop was their biggest hole to fill coming into the offseason, but GM Al Avila made positive headway in filling out the rest of the roster as well. Tucker Barnhart was losing his starting job in Cincinnati, but that’s largely because of Tyler Stephenson’s offensive upside. Barnhart will set up camp near the bottom of the batting order, and he’s likely to stay there, but that’s not why the Tigers took on the $7.5MM he’ll be owed in 2022. Detroit’s young starting staff could use a veteran hand to guide their pitch selection and game management, and Barnhart’s reputation suggests he’s exactly the guy to do it.
Baez and Barnhart together ought to help create an ecosystem more conducive to run prevention, thereby either increasing the likelihood for success or hurrying the development for Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal. That was likely Detroit’s number one goal this offseason.
Eduardo Rodriguez is another piece of that new-and-improved ecosystem. He steps in for Matthew Boyd and ought to provide consistency to their young rotation. E-Rod’s 4.74 ERA last season is a tad misleading as a .363 BABIP helped bloat the bottom-line run prevention numbers. ERA indicators were more complimentary: 3.32 FIP, 3.65 SIERA were both career-best numbers.
Beyond veteran savvy and life experience, Rodriguez gives the Tigers an innings-eater like their rotation hasn’t had in recent years. His 157 2/3 innings would have led the Tigers, who only had Mize and Skubal finish anywhere near the 150-inning mark. Boyd was solid in his 15 starts, posting 1.4 fWAR and a 3.89 ERA/4.10 FIP, but the Tigers likely figure that E-Rod gives them a better chance of hitting those marks over a full slate. Besides, winning breeds winners, and bringing in someone like Rodriguez can help transform the clubhouse culture into one that expects W’s.
Rodriguez helps, but if the Tigers are truly going to make the leap, it will likely be because Mike, Skubal, and Manning continue their development. Mize made 30 starts but racked up just 1.3 fWAR, in part because he didn’t show much of a propensity for missing bats. Skubal boasted swing-and-miss stuff, but the southpaw was prone to giving up long balls. If Mize, Manning, and Skubal grow up this season, the Tigers will feel pretty good about their run prevention potential. In a nutshell, that’s the biggest what-if of the Tigers’ 2022 season.
The Rodriguez addition was all the more important because Spencer Turnbull remains out after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Turnbull appeared to be on the verge of a breakout, but now they’re in wait-and-see mode. The same for Barnhart and Jake Rogers behind the plate.
Tyler Alexander lines up as the fifth starter for now, but the Tigers are likely to explore more starting options when the lockout ends. Rodriguez will more than likely end up as their big-ticket signing on the pitching side, but there are still plenty of veteran rotation arms that can raise the floor of Detroit’s unit.
The bullpen is another area where the Tigers will explore additions after the lockout. Michael Fulmer emerged as a weapon, saving 14 games and tossing 69 2/3 innings over 52 appearances (four starts). It’s a reinvention for Fulmer, but one that can greatly help the team. Beyond the saves, he also earned nine holds and proved himself an invaluable multi-inning firearm for manager A.J. Hinch.
Gregory Soto took on the more traditional closer’s role, but Hinch is not afraid to use the power lefty whenever he needs him most. Soto saved 18 games over 62 appearances with a 3.39 ERA/4.14 FIP. Hinch has also relied on Jose Cisnero out of the pen. The 32-year-old made 67 appearances and posted a 3.65 ERA/4.13 FIP over 61 2/3 innings.
Fulmer, Soto, and Cisnero give Avila a solid starting place when it comes to building out his bullpen, but they could use some more firepower. There are other arms in-house but expect the Tigers to put some work in here when the lockout ends. Bullpen arms might be more amenable to joining Detroit after the work that’s been put into the roster already.
Offensively, exciting times are ahead. The Detroit faithful have enjoyed the benchmark stage of Miguel Cabrera’s Hall of Fame career, even if the 38-year-old no longer slugs with the authority of his youth. He crossed the 500 home run threshold in 2021, and he’ll get to the 3,000 hit mark early in 2020.
Cabrera might be the best hitter of his generation, and in some ways, it’s been a blessing that the Tigers have been able to line up their rebuilding years with Cabrera’s decline, thereby allowing the organization the difficult decision of when to take Cabrera out of the lineup. Cabrera played in 130 games last year and 57 out of the 60 from 2020’s shortened season. I’d be surprised if he hits 130 games again in 2022, however, as the Tigers will likely start to be a little more judicious with his playing time as they make an earnest effort for contention.
It will be a handing-off-of-the-baton type of season for Cabrera and the Tigers, who together are likely to welcome the top two prospects in Detroit’s system up to the Majors in 2022. Spencer Torkelson is the most obvious side-by-side with Cabrera, as the former number one overall pick is a bat-first corner infield prospect who has a decent chance to end up as a designated hitter eventually. For now, he’ll play first base and only occasionally snipe DH at-bats from Cabrera.
Jeimer Candelario is the third piece of the corner infield puzzle, and he fits nicely between Cabrera and Torkelson as an in-his-prime switch-hitter who only recently locked in his spot on the roster. He’s long been the Tigers third baseman, but for years it seems the former Cubs farmhand was just a placeholder.
Then 2020 happend. Candelario blasted off to the tune of a 138 wRC+ in the shortened season, and while he didn’t continue at that rate last season, he remained solidly above average, posting 3.2 fWAR and a 118 wRC+. He’s still subpar as a defensive third baseman, but now he’ll have Baez flanking him at short, which should help. Candelario and Baez actually began their professional careers together in rookie ball with the Cubs, though Baez rose quickly trough the system, while Candelario was eventually shipped to Detroit with Isaac Paredes for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson.
Candelario’s long-term future is unclear, but he’s under team control for 2022 and 2023, so it seems likely he’ll stay at the hot corner for now. If Detroit falls out of the race, the Tigers could explore using Candelario as a trade piece. For now, however, his well-rounded bat is a nice cog in Detroit’s lineup. He may not excel in any one area, but he has average power (.172 ISO), a decent eye (10.4 percent walk rate), and the ability to put the ball in play (21.6 percent strikeout rate) together make up an above-average hitter.
Jonathan Schoop fits a similar mold, but with a more eager approach at the plate. Schoop doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s a legitimate plus against lefties and can hold his own otherwise. Schoop may lose some playing time as Torkelson arrives, but like Candelario, he’s a cog in a rapidly improving machine.
Robbie Grossman: same same. Grossman does everything relatively well, but an elite approach at the plate can make him even more valuable. Grossman keeps the line moving, puts up professional at-bats, and he takes his walks (14.6 percent walk rate).
All in all, the Tigers boast a working-class group of veteran bats that should prop up the baseline and give Torkelson and other young players a little bit of extra runway to find their stride.
The key player may be Riley Greene. If he can stick it in center, that will fill another huge hole in Detroit’s lineup. It’s not easy to find a centerfielder these days, making his development all the more key. Of course, Akil Baddoo may have beat him to the punch. Hinch protected the Rule 5 pick with match-ups in 2021, and it more-or-less worked (108 wRC+). Baddoo’s torching hot start did eventually cool off, but he still finished the year looking promising enough for the Tigers to give him more run in 2022.
Where they might yet add to the offense is with another corner outfielder. Baddoo can play some center along with Victor Reyes, and there are still bats out there that could fit in the middle of Detroit’s lineup. Neither Baddoo nor Reyes needs to be guaranteed a starting spot. Given the contract that they reportedly offered to Carlos Correa, the Tigers still likely have some financial flexibility, should they choose to flex it.
The Tigers have patiently waited out their rebuild, but we know from their history that when the time comes, they are willing to spend. That doesn’t mean that they’re ready to spend it all this offseason, however, so their work could mostly be done. They’ve already made significant additions to the team. They aren’t done, but it’s certainly possible that any bullpen arms, starters, or extra bats they sign will slot in below the players already added, both in a financial and potential impact sense.
Then again, the Tigers have been aggressive. When the crossbar raises and GMs are set loose to sign free agents again, don’t be shocked to see Detroit hit the ground running. Big names have and are coming through the minor league system, but it’s not the deepest farm in the league, so if Detroit wants to make sure they meet expectations and become the cinderella darling of 2022, we might see more free agents changing their address to Motor City.
By Anthony Franco | at
The Mets have already been one of the league’s most active teams this offseason. They’ve replaced their manager, added a new baseball operations leader and embarked upon a huge spending spree to land the market’s top center fielder and starting pitcher. They probably won’t make quite as many headlines coming out of the lockout, but with seemingly limitless financial resources and an obvious desire to improve, they can’t be ruled out of almost anything.
Guaranteed Contracts
Total 2022 commitments: $215.8MM
Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Option Decisions
Both Mets and Kevin Pillar declined their ends of two-tiered option; paid $1.4MM buyout in lieu of $6.4MM club option or $2.9MM player option
Free Agents
The Mets entered the winter knowing they’d be on the hunt for a new baseball operations leader, and a managerial vacancy followed in the opening days of the offseason. New York declined their 2022 option on Luis Rojas, ending his time in the role after two seasons.
The first few weeks of the offseason were fairly quiet on the transactions front as the Mets prioritized putting a new front office leader in place. New York inquired about such notable names as Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and David Stearns as part of a highly-public search. They missed out on those marquee names, but New York did eventually settle on a baseball ops head with previous experience leading a front office. In mid-November, the Mets finalized a four-year deal with former Angels general manager Billy Eppler to take on that role in Queens.
Eppler took over a club facing plenty of turnover. Starters Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman were hitting free agency, as were longtime outfielder Michael Conforto and deadline pickup Javier Báez. It now seems like all four of those players are going to be playing elsewhere next season. Syndergaard and Conforto rejected qualifying offers. (Stroman and Báez were each ineligible for QO’s but surely would’ve declined themselves). The two starters signed with other clubs before the lockout, as did Báez. Conforto remains a free agent, but the Mets other moves this offseason (more on those in a minute) suggest the club has probably moved on.
With two departing starters, New York made a run at Steven Matz. The southpaw, whom the Mets had traded away last offseason, hit free agency coming off a solid year with the Blue Jays. New York was one of a few clubs with notable interest in Matz, but the 30-year-old inked a four-year contract with the Cardinals. That didn’t sit well with owner Steve Cohen, who apparently felt the Mets were denied an opportunity to match St. Louis’ $44MM offer.
The Mets didn’t have much time to dwell on the result of the Matz negotiations, though. With the lockout approaching, the free agent market picked up quite a bit of steam in late November. With Eppler in place, New York was in position to partake in that extravaganza, and the team dove in headfirst. The Mets first free agent pickup — veteran infielder Eduardo Escobar on a two-year guarantee — was a solid but not overly splashy pickup.
It didn’t take long for more headline-grabbing news to follow. Corner outfielder Mark Canha agreed to terms on a two-year deal just a few hours later. And to top off one of the most active evenings by any team in recent memory, New York signed free agency’s only star center fielder. Starling Marte landed a four-year deal with a $78MM guarantee, the largest free agent contract signed by any player this offseason up to that point.
Within a few hours, the Mets fundamentally revamped their lineup. Marte and Canha stepped into the outfield, likely pushing Brandon Nimmo from center field to a corner spot. Escobar stabilized an uncertain second/third base mix, as the club was soon to see Báez land in Detroit. That initial spree didn’t address the potential Syndergaard/Stroman departures, but New York had their highest-impact pickup of all looming on the horizon.
That, of course, proved to be the signing of future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young award winner landed a three-year, $130MM deal that’s likely to be the largest commitment to any free agent pitcher this winter. It was always expected Scherzer would land a record-setting average annual value, but the extent of the Mets commitment even surpassed most pre-offseason projections.
That few days was the kind Mets fans had dreamed of when Cohen purchased the franchise from the Wilpon family last winter. New York entered the lockout with a projected $263MM in player investments next season, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s the highest in MLB by a mile, and the Mets look likely to handily exceed whatever luxury tax thresholds are set in the upcoming collective bargaining agreement.
The transactions freeze brought the Mets player acquisitions to a halt, but it didn’t mark the end of the club’s key offseason dealings. With the lockout looming, the Mets focused on adding to the roster in the intervening weeks between Eppler’s hiring and the December 1 expiration of the previous CBA. Once the league barred player movement, the club returned to their manager position, which had sat vacant for around three months.
According to reports, New York met with six candidates as part of that search. Longtime skipper Buck Showalter was cast as the favorite fairly early in the process, though, and his ultimate hiring proved wholly unsurprising. In contrast to the club’s past few hires — Mickey Callaway, Carlos Beltrán (very briefly) and Rojas — Showalter brings decades of experience to the position. He’ll oversee a star-studded clubhouse, leading a franchise that’ll enter the season with massive aspirations.
With so much in the rearview mirror, what’s left for the Mets after the lockout? Paradoxically, one could argue the club’s immense volume of activity makes their next steps either easier or tougher to project. On the one hand, they’ve done so much that the roster’s strengths and deficiencies are fairly clear. Yet the organization is already operating in uncharted waters from a payroll perspective, leaving little indication for outside observers how much further Cohen and the front office could be prepared to go.
Where might Alderson and Eppler devote their attention after the transactions freeze? The Nimmo – Marte – Canha grouping in the outfield is impressive enough that any further pickups will probably be of the depth variety. It looks all but inevitable that Conforto will depart, and the Mets will pick up another draft choice (they also received one after Syndergaard signed with the Angels) as compensation.
There’s plenty of depth around the infield as well. Francisco Lindor is the shortstop, and Pete Alonso is at first base. How exactly Showalter will divvy up the playing time between second and third base remains to be seen, but there are plenty of options on hand. Jeff McNeil is probably best suited for playing time at the keystone, but Robinson Canó is set to return to the organization after a year-long PED suspension. Escobar can player either position, while J.D. Davis is an option at the hot corner (even if he’s better suited at first base or designated hitter). Utilityman Luis Guillorme can back up all around the infield, including at shortstop.
The likely addition of the DH to the National League might alleviate that logjam a bit, but there’s also the presence of first baseman/corner outfielder Dominic Smith to consider. Committing to anyone at DH might leave a deserving player without regular at-bats, and it looks likely at least one notable name is traded away before the start of the season. Recent reports have suggested a McNeil or Smith deal may be the most probable, but Davis has long been speculated upon as a trade candidate himself — so much so that he guessed his chances of opening next season in Queens were “kind of 50/50” even before New York’s spending spree.
If the Mets were to deal one of those players, it seems likely they’d target pitching help in return. No one around the league can match New York’s best two arms, with Scherzer and Jacob deGrom a potentially dominating pairing at the top. There’s a lot of uncertainty behind that duo, though.
Carlos Carrasco is usually very effective when healthy, but he was limited to twelve starts last year by various injuries and underwent postseason surgery to remove a bone fragment from his elbow. He’s not expected to miss much more than a bit of Spring Training action, but it’s the latest in a rather significant injury history for the 34-year-old. Taijuan Walker stayed healthy last season, but he followed up an All-Star first half with a 7.13 ERA/6.79 FIP after the Break. David Peterson struggled and battled oblique and foot injuries last season. Tylor Megill showed promising strikeout and walk numbers but gave up a lot of hard contact when batters did put the ball in play.
At least adding some sort of stabilizing back-of-the-rotation presence would seem to be a priority. The Reds and A’s are expected to make some higher-impact arms available via trade, and other teams like the Marlins and Brewers might have enough pitching depth to consider dealing a back-end guy for offensive help.
As is the case with virtually every contender, the Mets could probably stand to add a reliever or two. Last year’s bullpen was a top ten unit by both ERA and strikeout/walk rate differential. But Aaron Loup has already departed, and Jeurys Familia (in whom the Mets apparently have some interest in re-signing) and midseason pickups Heath Hembree and Brad Hand all hit free agency.
Edwin Díaz, Trevor May and Seth Lugo make for a quality back-end trio, but adding some middle relief help makes sense. That’s particularly true from the left side, as the Mets don’t have a single southpaw in their projected Opening Day bullpen. Andrew Chafin, Tony Watson and Jake Diekman stand out as the top free agent lefty relievers still available. New York has also been tied to Twins closer Taylor Rogers, who could be attainable in trade.
Catcher stands out as one other potential weak point on the roster. The Mets hoped they’d solidified the position by signing James McCann to a four-year deal last offseason. The veteran was coming off a strong two-year run with the White Sox, but his numbers on both sides of the ball went backwards during his first season in Queens. Without many obvious alternatives available in free agency or trade, the Mets may have to primarily rely on a McCann bounceback, but they could look to replace Tomás Nido as a backup.
It’s certainly possible the Mets biggest activity of the winter is already behind them. Two of the best pitchers in recent memory are in place at the top of the rotation. There’s plenty of star power at the back of the bullpen. The outfield has already been completely remade, and there’s enough depth around the infield that trading away a player or two looks likely.
It’d be justifiable for the front office to view the core as already being in place and to now turn their attention to smaller pickups at the back of the roster. Yet after their November flurry of activity, it’s hard to count the Mets out on anyone. Would ownership push the payroll beyond $300MM for the right player? That’s impossible to tell, since there’s no spending history with Cohen on which to draw. Over the past few years, big-market behemoths like the Dodgers have continued to land star talent even in the absence of a true team “need.” It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Mets take the same approach.
One factor the Mets have to consider whenever major league free agency begins again: the qualifying offer. New York declined to sign first-round pick Kumar Rocker last summer, entitling them to a compensatory pick in next year’s draft. Yet because that compensation pick (#11 overall) is higher than the Mets original choice (#14 overall), they’d forfeit their second pick of the first round were they to sign a free agent who has been tagged with a QO.
That could deter a pursuit of someone like Trevor Story or Nick Castellanos, but there are a few marquee free agents who didn’t receive a QO. Carlos Rodón might be the top starting pitcher still available and wasn’t tagged by the White Sox; deadline target Kris Bryant, ineligible for a QO by virtue of a midseason trade, is unsigned; NPB star Seiya Suzuki is going through the posting process and wouldn’t cost a pick. The Mets probably don’t need to make another splash, but if ownership is willing to keep spending, the front office could explore their options.
It’s been another eventful winter in Queens. The Mets again have new leadership, both atop the front office and in the manager’s chair. They’re flexing financial muscle the likes of which previous ownership never seemed to consider. They’ve landed a couple more stars, and even if the remainder of the offseason involves adjustments on the margins of the roster, expectations will be as high as ever. It has been five years since the Mets last postseason appearance. If the streak reaches six, it’d go down as the club’s biggest disappointment yet.
By TC Zencka | at
For the first time since before Bryce Harper played for Washington, the Nationals are basement dwellers in the NL East for consecutive seasons. Coming off their title season in 2019, their 26-34 finish in the truncated 2020 was easy to write-off as a result of the pandemic, but after 97 losses in 2021, there’s little doubt left: the Nationals need a reboot.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
It’s been barely two years since Howie Kendrick scraped paint off the Astros’ right field foul pole, but the mainstays from that 2019 title team are almost all gone now. The trade deadline deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers was a gut punch for the fanbase and the unofficial end to the first competitive era of Nationals baseball. The Nats got their rings at what now seems like the last possible moment for the Scherzer/Strasburg era.
They weathered the loss of Harper for that one magical season, but since their road warrior heroics at Minute Maid Park, the franchise has been in relative disarray. Losing mainstays like Anthony Rendon and Sean Doolittle changed the complexion of the roster, but no loss will be felt quite like Scherzer and Turner. Scherzer and Turner are two of the more visually stunning talents in the game as well as two of the most productive at their positions. After years of enjoying the brute force of Scherzer’s personality and Turner’s whiplash-inducing speed/power combo, the Nats no longer offer a symphony of baseball talent to the crowds in Southeast DC – they now have a one-man-band.
That said: Juan Soto is a gem. Had the Nationals been anywhere near the playoffs, the 22-year-old might have his first MVP award. Instead, a .313/465/.534 campaign yielded “just” his first All-Star appearance and second silver slugger. He is the runner-up in MVP voting, somehow notching his third top-10 finish in four seasons. He might have the best plate discipline of any hitter since Barry Bonds, and despite his age, he’s now led the Majors in on-base percentage for two years running.
There is no praise too high for Soto. Given a league-wide re-draft, Soto would be a top-5 pick, full stop. The only thing keeping him from being among the highest jersey sales in the league is his market and physical skills that don’t jump out of the screen as it does for the three juniors, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Even the downsides to his game are fairly innocuous: Soto won’t steal 30 bases, and he doesn’t play a premium position. Reach deep and you could say that his power is relatively mortal (.221 ISO this season, 29 home runs). He may not be a power hitter of the strictest order, but he’s on his way. It’s a tool in his toolbelt and an area of potential growth as he ages into his physical prime.
He’s not going to get any faster, but he has shown an ability and willingness to improve in the outfield, even as he shifted from left to right field. It’s certainly possible to imagine a future where Soto spends some time as a designated hitter, but that’s not going to bother Nats’ fans. Where he plays in the field isn’t nearly as pressing as which field he calls home.
With three years until Soto’s free agency, the Nationals have entered the countdown era. It’s easy to imagine the cloud of Soto’s potential departure hanging over this franchise much like Kris Bryant’s free agency timeline dominated narratives for the post-title Cubs. Unfortunately, as a Scott Boras client, Soto isn’t likely to surrender his leverage anytime soon. And it’s hard to ignore the Nats’ recent habit of letting giant stars walk out the door.
The optimists would cite Boras’ purportedly good relationship with Nats’ ownership. Sure, Rendon and Harper both walked, but it was unclear how fully committed the Nats were to bring them back. They committed to Strasburg, and he did return – for better or for worse.
For Soto, it ought to help that he already won a ring in Washington, but GM Mike Rizzo will probably have to convince ownership to make Soto the richest man in the game in order to lock him up long-term. Luckily, the Nats are one of many teams that can’t really be priced out for any one free agent. Whatever the cost, they can pay it if they’re willing.
Regardless, the next three seasons are likely to play out as an extended courtship wherein Rizzo and owner Mark Lerner try to convince Soto that they can build a competitive engine around him that’s worth helming. Ironically, the Nationals are asking the Majors’ walks and OBP leader for patience.
That process began in earnest with the Scherzer/Turner trade. The move wasn’t just about sucking a last bit of value from Scherzer before he departed in free agency. It kickstarted a retooling effort around Soto. That much was evident in their return package.
Josiah Gray stepped directly into Scherzer’s rotation spot, and they need to see him turn into a mid-rotation starter by the end of 2022. The big fish of the deal, however, was Keibert Ruiz, a long-touted catching prospect who may replace Victor Robles as Soto’s primary running mate on the position player side. Ruiz may not be a middle-of-the-order bat, but he makes contact, should hit for power, and if he turns into a first division catcher as expected, he’ll play a large role in managing the pitching staff.
Amazingly, entering his age-23 season, Ruiz will be young for a rookie in his first full season, and still older than Soto. Regardless, after posting a 101 wRC+ in 96 plate appearances, which included a particularly resilient end to the year (112 wRC+ in Sept/Oct), Ruiz will enter 2022 as Washington’s starting catcher. That’s an exciting development for Nats fans and a good first step to the “Courting Soto” era of Nats’ baseball, but it’s not enough to make them a contender.
Side note: Riley Adams, acquired from the Blue Jays for Brad Hand before the Dodgers’ deal, nicely complements Ruiz as the backup catcher, even if he does look as big as a house crouching behind the dish. After years of Matt Wieters underperformance and the steady-but-uninspiring upgrade to Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals have their most exciting catchers’ room, perhaps, in franchise history.
Next to Soto in the outfield, Robles is the dream, but Lane Thomas is the reality. Acquired in an under-the-radar deal that sent Jon Lester to the Cardinals, Thomas took off while getting playing time as the Nats’ everyday centerfielder. The 26-year-old hit .270/.364/.489 in 206 plate appearances – easily the most opportunity he’s seen in the bigs. Thomas figures to see more chances in 2022, but what that means for Robles isn’t totally clear. Thomas could return to a fourth outfielder role, but since the Nats don’t currently have a left fielder, it’s difficult to speculate. Robles may have to play himself back into a regular role if he’s able.
As for left field, Yadiel Hernandez posted a solid 98 wRC+, though that number was dragged down by a 79 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter. But he’s also 34-years-old and not probably more than a backup plan for Washington. Andrew Stevenson is the other name on the roster, and he’s proven best as a fourth or fifth option coming off the bench. There’s likely to be another outfielder to join this group once the lockout is resolved. Think Kyle Schwarber again, though probably not Kyle Schwarber again.
Another potential option that they explored in 2021 was using Josh Bell in left field. That’s not an ideal plan for a guy most people think is best-suited as a designated hitter. Bell could very well be dealt before the start of the season, but if not, he’s more likely to be the everyday first baseman and a break-in-case-of-emergency option in the grass.
At shortstop, Alcides Escobar made it back to the Majors for the first time in years, managed to play respectably, and earned a one-year, $1MM deal to stay in Washington. He’s the presumptive starter heading into the year, but the financial commitment isn’t exactly starter’s money. They could surprise everyone by making a play for Carlos Correa, and they could afford it, but there’s been little indication that Rizzo is ready to make that kind of splash this offseason.
That said, there’s not necessarily a shortstop of the future anywhere in the minors until you get to Jackson Cluff or young Brady House. The latter is years away and could end up at third base anyhow. Luis Garcia may be the answer the Nats are ready to settle on. He was a top prospect who was rushed to the Majors in 2020, and there have been growing pains since. He’s a second baseman, but since Cesar Hernandez was brought in on a one-year, $4MM deal, the keystone may be occupied. That could signal a desire for the 21-year-old to get more seasoning time in the minors, and it could mean that they are ready to let Garcia play short. Both options are somewhere in the playbook.
At the hot corner, time is running out for Carter Kieboom. The former top prospect is still just 24, but he’s put up successive seasons of 67 and 68 wRC+, and it’s not as if he’s been a stud with the glove. Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of other options for the Nationals right now. They’ve been tied at times to Bryant, and it’s been suggested that they could be a landing spot for a salary dump like Mike Moustakas, but that’s all speculative for now.
For the first part of the offseason at least, the Nationals took a throw-as-many-options-at-the-wall-as-possible approach. They signed Dee Strange-Gordon, Maikel Franco, and Richard Urena to minor league contracts. They claimed fleet-footed Lucius Fox off waivers from the Orioles. They brought back long-time extra body Adrian Sanchez on a minor league deal. They snagged Andrew Young off waivers from the Diamondbacks. That’s a veteran group that looks very Nationals-y, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or a pair of them make the roster.
The real problem for the Nationals, however, is the pitching. The rotation is up there as the most uncertain group in all of baseball. Gray is still establishing himself, Strasburg is perennially injured, and Corbin was among the worst rotation arms in baseball last season. If he can figure out his slider, and Stras can get himself back on the mound, there’s some ceiling for this group, but it’s not a real likely potentiality.
Joe Ross (again) flashed some ability to be a mid-range starter, but he (again) finished the year on the injured list. Ross looks to have avoided Tommy John surgery for now, but the rest-and-rehab approach doesn’t always end well. Counting on Ross for quality innings is about as reckless as counting on Strasburg, Corbin, and Gray.
Josh Rogers and Paolo Espino would be in the 6-10 range for most organizations, but they are starters number four and five as of right now. Espino has been surprisingly productive for an older player without much Majors experience, and Rogers brings plenty of character, but not much of a track record. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth have both started without a whole lot of success, but they’re there in the bullpen just in case.
There are, however, some interesting arms on the horizon. Cade Cavalli is the biggest of the bunch, and he’s rising fast enough that he could surprise and make it to the Majors next year. The Nationals need Cavalli to stay healthy and develop into an impact arm. He looked the part in Double-A before getting touched up a bit in seven starts in Triple-A, where he should return to start 2022. Jackson Rutledge, Aldo Ramirez, Andry Lara, and Mason Denaburg are all names worth tracking, but they aren’t near enough to the Majors to make a difference.
For prospect arms capable of logging significant big league innings, look to Seth Romero, Joan Adon, Gerardo Carrillo, or maybe Evan Lee, all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Cole Henry is highly thought of within the organization, but he has just 8 starts in High-A and would have to be added to the 40-man. Carrillo was part of the Scherzer trade, and though he’s not a top prospect, an organization change always sets off alarms for a development jump. There’s no explicit evidence for that jump yet, and he has yet to make a stop in Triple-A.
On the whole, the Nats are beginning to put together an interesting collection of depth arms, but they don’t have the foundational pieces in the Majors. Not in the rotation, and not in the bullpen. They big adieu to Suero, a regular-use, one-pitch setup arm that’s been in the bullpen for years, and they DFA’ed Ryne Harper as well, another veteran option. Will Harris is the most proven arm remaining in the pen, but he hasn’t been healthy enough to prove it since yielding that long ball to Kendrick while with the Astros way back when.
Kyle Finnegan laid claim to the closer’s role, saving 11 games over 68 appearances with a 3.55 ERA/4.62 FIP. He’d be a useful arm in a first division pen, but not someone to build around. Tanner Rainey has the best stuff, but he took a step back last year and has struggled with consistency throughout his career. There’s a world in which Rainey goes big-time in ’22, but as with most of the Nats’ arms, Rainey’s stardom is more dream than reality right now.
Patrick Murphy was an interesting pickup worth watching as a guy who can go short or long, depending on need. The rest of the bullpen is very much a work in progress with Fedde, Voth, and late-developing Andres Machado highest on the pecking order.
In the first part of free agency, the Nationals weren’t very active, and it shows in the state of their roster. They need a left fielder and a DH/first baseman to split time with Bell if the DH arrives in the National League. Zimmerman could return still, and he’d fit nicely on a cheap contract as a right-handed complement for Bell, but he’s not an everyday player anymore.
They could stand upgrades at shortstop and third base, though it’s probably not worth displacing Garcia/Kieboom unless they get a significant star (and that seems unlikely this offseason). Besides, any money they have to spend should really be committed to pitching, though there’s not as much available on the free-agent market.
Long-term, Corbin has “just” three years left on his deal, so there’s light at the end of the tunnel. As of now, they’re still roughly $50MM under their 2021 payroll, and even that $162MM number was their lowest in years. Strasburg’s money is significant, and Boras willing, they’ll plunk down a king’s ransom for Soto at some point. But otherwise, their ledger is mostly empty. Unfortunately, so is their talent pool.
The Nationals are a slow-and-steady franchise, and with the most patient superstar in baseball now the centerpiece of their organization, they’re playing for the future. With just three years left of team control for Soto, that future is fast approaching. The Nats will strike to build a contender around Soto before he leaves. We know that much. We just don’t know the when or the how. To crack those codes, all we need is patience.
By Anthony Franco | at
The Red Sox made a somewhat surprising run to the ALCS in 2021. They’ve been fairly quiet to this point in the offseason, making a series of low-cost additions on the pitching staff. Yet they could be poised for some more impactful activity once the new collective bargaining agreement is in place.
Guaranteed Contracts
Owe $16MM to Dodgers as part of David Price trade
Total 2022 commitments: $155MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Option Decisions
Free Agents
After coming up a couple wins shy of a pennant, the Red Sox opened the winter facing the departure of a few important members of last year’s club. Most notable among them: longtime rotation cog Eduardo Rodríguez and midseason trade pick-up Kyle Schwarber.
Boston expressed interest in retaining both players, but Rodríguez departed fairly quickly. The southpaw signed a five-year deal with the Tigers in the first marquee free agent move of the offseason, leaving the Sox to turn elsewhere for starting pitching. Boston was loosely tied to top-of-the-market options like Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman, and they reportedly had strong interest in Steven Matz. Yet in all three cases — as with Rodríguez — those hurlers ended up landing multi-year deals elsewhere.
With no long-term rotation deals finalized, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his front office pivoted to a bulk approach to the pitching staff. Rather than concentrating their resources into a mid-rotation innings eater, the Sox have spread money around on a few lower-cost arms.
They began by inking Michael Wacha to a $7MM guarantee, making them the latest team to roll the dice on a hopeful bounceback from the righty. As the lockout neared, Boston reunited with veteran Rich Hill, who’s remarkably coming off his highest innings total since 2007. The Massachusetts native is entering his age-42 campaign, yet he’s continued to produce at an average or better level every season, adding to an incredible late-career renaissance that began in Boston in 2015.
Wacha and Hill are each options for the season-opening starting staff. Boston’s other free agent rotation pickup, James Paxton, is not. He’s still recovering from an April 2021 Tommy John surgery and likely won’t be ready until the middle of the season. Paxton’s a very good pitcher when healthy, though, and for a $10MM guarantee, the Sox picked up a two-year club option that could keep him around through 2024.
The Red Sox’s choice to eschew a huge rotation investment minimizes their long-term financial downside, but it’s not without risk in 2022. There’s plenty of upside among Boston’s in-house rotation options, but it’s a high-variance unit. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Chris Sale returns to his ace-caliber form, but it’s tough to treat that as a given after Sale missed most of the past two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nathan Eovaldi was excellent last season and could be a high-end #2 behind Sale, but he’s had ups and downs throughout his career. Nick Pivetta has great raw stuff but inconsistent production.
Boston seems comfortable with that volatility. The free agent rotation market has been mostly picked through to this point. There are still some interesting trade possibilities, but it’d register as a bit of a surprise if Boston lands someone like Sonny Gray or Sean Manaea after signing three free agent starters. That’s particularly true given the presence of Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock, each of whom the club will seemingly consider for the rotation mix.
The latter two hurlers might also find themselves in the bullpen. Whitlock, in particular, was downright excellent in shorter stints as a rookie. While he’d had some success as a starter in the minors and has spoken about his desire to land a rotation role, it’s arguable the Sox should keep him in relief.
The late inning mix is uncertain, largely thanks to the second half struggles of Matt Barnes. Signed to a two-year extension after an All-Star first half, Barnes was awful during the season’s final couple months and was left off the initial playoff roster. As he struggled to find his footing, Whitlock emerged as the top late-game option for manager Alex Cora. Getting Barnes back on track is no doubt a key focus for the Boston coaching staff and front office, but it’s tough to pencil him back into a high-leverage role at the moment.
In addition to Barnes’ downturn, the Sox are facing the free agent departures of a few of their most relied-upon relievers. Garrett Richards and Martín Pérez were both kicked to the bullpen midseason after struggling as starters; their contracts have since been bought out. Adam Ottavino hit free agency, as did midseason pickup Hansel Robles. Those aren’t impact arms, and Boston could look to bring one or more back on affordable deals. But it’s a lot of relief innings to potentially walk out the door, and with a high-risk, high-reward rotation, having a reliable bullpen takes on all the more importance.
Some of the Red Sox’s bullpen work may have already been addressed by their rotation signings. Adding enough starters to have the flexibility to use Whitlock and/or Houck later in games helps, and Wacha might eventually be a bullpen option himself. Yet there’s more work to be done, particularly from the right side. Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernández and midseason trade acquisition Austin Davis make for a solid trio of southpaws. The right-handed group — likely anchored by Whitlock, Ryan Brasier, Barnes and Hirokazu Sawamura — looks a bit thinner.
At least one big league addition to the mix seems likely, whether via free agency, trade or the Rule 5 draft. Just minutes before the lockout, Bloom told reporters the club was hoping to “add more pitching,” noting that they’d “yet to address (the bullpen) in meaningful fashion.” Kenley Jansen is the biggest-name free agent closer still available, while players like Ryan Tepera and Collin McHugh could step into set-up roles.
Bloom also indicated the Red Sox would like to add a right-handed bat whenever teams are again permitted to make moves. That came on the heels of the club trading away one of their top righty hitters, outfielder Hunter Renfroe. With the transactions freeze fast approaching, Boston sent Renfroe to Milwaukee to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. and a pair of fairly well-regarded prospects.
The deal, which essentially amounted to taking on a few million dollars in salary to bolster the farm system while parting with Renfroe, registered as a surprise for a win-now Red Sox club. Bradley’s coming off the worst offensive season of any regular in MLB. The front office is no doubt hoping a return to familiar environs can help to reinvigorate his bat, and Bradley’s still a high-end center fielder. But while the front office may not believe the downgrade from Renfroe to Bradley is as significant as their respective 2021 numbers would indicate, it’s unquestionably a blow to the club’s offense.
Renfroe was fifth on the team in park-adjusted hitting last season (minimum 100 plate appearances). His loss, coupled with Schwarber’s potential free agent departure, could make it hard for the Sox to again run out a top-five run scoring unit in 2022. The deal does, however, make for a sizable defensive improvement, much needed for a team that was by far the league’s worst at turning balls in play into outs.
Strong team defenses were behind a lot of the Rays’ success during Bloom’s tenure in the Tampa Bay front office, and it seems that’ll be a priority for his clubs in Boston. That might diminish the possibility of a Schwarber reunion, since he’s a bat-first corner outfielder who struggled to acclimate to first base down the stretch. There’s room on the roster for a position player pickup of some form, though, and there’s enough flexibility that that addition could come in a number of areas.
That’s largely thanks to the presence of utilityman Enrique Hernández, who had an excellent season after signing a two-year deal last winter. Hernández is a plus defensive option at a number of positions, and his ability to bounce between the infield and outfield serves the front office well. If the Red Sox add an outfielder from outside the organization (or re-sign Schwarber), then they’d have that player, top prospect Jarren Duran, Alex Verdugo and Bradley as options on the grass. Hernández, meanwhile, could slide to second base, where there’s not a whole lot of certainty internally. Alternatively, Boston could acquire a second baseman (the Mets are reportedly likely to make Jeff McNeil available, to name one speculative possibility) and rely on Hernández primarily in center with Bradley pushed into fourth outfield duty.
It’s also worth mentioning the possibility of the Red Sox going all out for one of the two remaining star free agent shortstops. Reports have tied Boston to each of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story this winter, and owner John Henry has shown a willingness to make a significant splash in years past.
Boston certainly doesn’t need a shortstop. Xander Bogaerts is one of the sport’s best players, and the Sox could feel good about him keeping the job entering the season. He can opt out of his current contract at the end of next season, though, and Boston could see a Correa or Story signing as a way to preemptively guard against Bogaerts’ possible departure (as the Dodgers did in acquiring Trea Turner with Corey Seager’s free agency looming).
Signing Correa or Story could push Bogaerts over to second base. While he’s an excellent hitter, Bogaerts hasn’t rated highly as a defender in the eyes of most public advanced metrics. A move to the keystone could help address Boston’s aforementioned team-wide defensive issues, particularly if the Red Sox signed the Gold Glove-winning Correa. (Advanced metrics have been mixed on Story, who has a strong glove and range but has had some issues with throwing errors in recent years).
As things currently stand, Hernández and Christian Arroyo look like the favorites for playing time at second base. Prospect Jeter Downs was added to the 40-man roster and might factor into the mix as well, but he’ll first need to rebound from a dismal Triple-A season. The remaining free agent options at the position aren’t great, leaving a run at Story/Correa or a trade as the best ways for an upgrade.
Boston could also be a dark horse suitor for either of Kris Bryant or Freddie Freeman if they’re content with their current middle infield. Bryant could play primarily in the corner outfield while seeing some action at third base, perhaps allowing Rafael Devers to spend more time across the diamond at first base. Devers is an impact hitter but has had his share of defensive woes as well. Bryant’s among the best right-handed bats still available, and his ability to bounce between the infield and outfield would fit with the Red Sox’s seeming penchant for defensive versatility.
Freeman would be a first base solution only, supplanting Bobby Dalbec on the depth chart there. Top first base prospect Triston Casas isn’t far off major league readiness, but Freeman and Casas could split first base/designated hitter duties in 2023 and beyond. J.D. Martinez forewent an opt-out possibility and will return as the DH next season, but he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year. A run at Freeman would be an outside-the-box move and would probably lead to a Dalbec trade that skews the lineup even more left-handed. But Freeman’s the type of impact player teams should be willing to creatively accommodate, if negotiations between he and the Braves stall out over his reported desire for a sixth guaranteed year.
There are myriad infield possibilities for Bloom and his front office. Adding to the roster in some form makes sense, although it’s also possible the organization prioritizes a long-term deal for one of their current stars. Perhaps Boston could try to supersede Bogaerts’ opt-out by exploring another contract extension with the three-time All-Star. Presumably, the club would love to to work out a deal with Devers, controllable through 2023 via arbitration. Both players are far enough along in their careers that they may prefer to just wait out free agency, but the Red Sox at least figure to be in touch with their respective representatives.
The final area of the roster — the catching corps — already seems in place. The Red Sox exercised a $7MM option on Christian Vázquez to open the winter. After avoiding arbitration with backup Kevin Plawecki, they look to have that duo locked in with Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernández as depth options. The Sox reportedly looked into a Jacob Stallings deal before the Pirates traded him to the Marlins, indicating at least some willingness to make a move behind the plate. Stallings is no longer available, though, and a Vázquez – Plawecki pairing should be capable if unspectacular.
The roster is versatile enough that the opportunities are numerous — if ownership is willing to sign off on another significant expenditure. That the Red Sox have been loosely tied to Correa and Story might suggest there’s money to be spent once the new CBA is in place and the team has more information about the luxury tax thresholds. They haven’t made any huge offseason splashes since Bloom took over the front office, but an impact move or two may be necessary to keep pace in a loaded American League East.
By Anthony Franco | at
Coming off their third straight last place season, the Pirates remain squarely amidst a rebuild. It’ll be another quiet winter and likely another poor season at the major league level for Pittsburgh. Yet the burgeoning farm system is finally beginning to offer some long-term hope.
Guaranteed Contracts
Owe $3MM buyout on 2022 club option to Gregory Polanco, who was released in August
Total 2022 commitments: $14MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
As expected, the Pirates were one of the worst teams in the National League in 2021. It was the Bucs’ second consecutive season with a win percentage south of .400, and they’re again in line for a top five overall pick in the draft. That’s par for the course for one of the league’s most obvious rebuilders, and it sets the stage for another fairly quiet offseason.
The Pirates have been one of the lower-spending clubs around the league even during years with strong rosters. Pittsburgh entered 2021 with a player payroll estimated just north of $45MM, and their end-of-year expenditure was reportedly the lowest for any MLB team since 2013. Without any path to contention in 2022, it’s unlikely the Pirates push payroll much higher next season, although the complete lack of financial commitments entering the winter gave the front office some freedom for early-offseason moves.
Before the lockout, Pittsburgh made three low-cost big league signings. Southpaw José Quintana inked a $2MM deal and will get another rotation chance after spending the bulk of last season in the bullpen. An All-Star caliber hurler earlier in his career with the White Sox, Quintana hasn’t been especially productive over the past three seasons.
Quintana did miss bats at a career-best rate last year, even as he struggled to a personal-worst 6.43 ERA. That’s at least a bit encouraging, although it came with a corresponding spike in walks. The Bucs have enough rotation uncertainty to afford the veteran some innings in hopes of a bounceback. In an ideal world, Quintana would follow the Tyler Anderson path of posting solid enough production to recoup a mid-tier prospect or two from a contender at next summer’s trade deadline.
Pittsburgh is still in the stages of the rebuild where they’re willing to move players off the big league club for future value. They did just that last month, in fact, sending Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings to the Marlins. The move brought back right-hander Zach Thompson — who has a chance to step right into the rotation after flashing some promise as a rookie — and a pair of prospects, right-hander Kyle Nicolas and outfielder Connor Scott.
Parting with the well-regarded Stallings likely wasn’t an easy call, but this was probably the right time for the Bucs to pull the trigger. Not only is the backstop coming off perhaps the best season of his career, he just turned 32 years old. While the late bloomer remains under club control for three more seasons (barring changes to the service structure in the next CBA), he may not be as productive as he was this past season by the time the Pirates are ready to contend.
The Stallings trade and outright of backup Michael Pérez left the Pirates without a catcher. Yet they quickly turned to free agency to find the solution, signing former Indian Roberto Pérez to a $5MM guarantee. The 33-year-old is coming off a miserable offensive season that got him bought out by Cleveland, but he’s a high-end defender who should work well with the young pitching staff at a non-exorbitant cost. Pérez isn’t a long-term answer, but he’s a perfectly capable veteran stopgap for next season.
Roberto Pérez is the only catcher on the Pittsburgh 40-man roster at the moment, meaning there’ll be more moves coming out of the lockout. Acquisitions will come via low-cost free agency or perhaps the Rule 5 draft, but Pittsburgh will have to select at least one more catcher to the big league club by Opening Day. Michael Pérez remains in the system as non-roster depth and figures to get another look himself in Spring Training.
Moving elsewhere around the diamond, first base is accounted for by the Bucs’ other major league free agent signing thus far. Yoshi Tsutsugo returned on a $4MM deal, and general manager Ben Cherington has already indicated he’s likely to spend the majority of his time at first. Tsutsugo struggled with the Rays and Dodgers after an impressive run in Japan, but he showed signs of life after latching on with the Bucs late in the year.
Tsutsugo hit .268/.347/.535 across 144 plate appearances in black and gold. Can he sustain anywhere near that level of production over a longer run? That remains to be seen, but he impressed the front office enough to earn another look. With Tsutsugo taking over as the club’s top lefty-hitting first baseman, the Pirates moved on from Colin Moran just before the non-tender deadline.
The other corner infield spot belongs to Ke’Bryan Hayes. It was a disappointing 2021 for the 24-year-old Hayes, who entered the season as a favorite for Rookie of the Year after a monster three weeks late in 2020. He suffered a fairly significant wrist injury within the first week of the season, and he never seemed to get on track offensively upon his return. The organization will hope for more than a .257/.316/.373 line from Hayes moving forward, but he’s clearly a key piece of the franchise’s long-term future.
The Bucs’ middle infield is in a bit of flux. All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier was traded away this summer. Kevin Newman, who took the bulk of playing time at shortstop this past season, remains on hand but hit .226/.265/.309 over 554 plate appearances. Newman may open the year at the position, but it shouldn’t be long before top prospect Oneil Cruz is playing shortstop regularly. The 23-year-old was rewarded for a monster Double-A season with a two-game big league cameo to end the year. But he’s only played six Triple-A games, and a season-opening assignment to Indianapolis may be in order.
Cruz is a fascinating prospect, with his massive 6’7″ frame leading to questions about his ability to stick at shortstop. The rebuild affords the Pirates some freedom to evaluate Cruz’s long-term defensive home, as they can live with a few miscues during what’ll be a non-competitive year regardless. Either way, Cruz’s huge power potential from the left-handed batter’s box makes him an intriguing young talent who’ll get plenty of reps against big league pitching in the not too distant future.
Second base is completely up in the air, with Cole Tucker, Hoy Park, Michael Chavis and Newman among the internal options. Everyone in that group underperformed in 2021, though, and none should be a lock for playing time. Free agency offers numerous depth options around the dirt. Old friend Josh Harrison is available, while Hanser Alberto, Ehire Adrianza and Shed Long are among the infielders who could sign minor league deals. Adding some veteran help to the mix — even if just via non-roster pact — could be in order.
There’s also plenty of uncertainty in the outfield, but one player is locked in. Center fielder Bryan Reynolds had an excellent 2021 campaign, hitting .302/.390/.522 over 646 plate appearances. That was his second very strong showing out of three big league seasons, and Reynolds looks to have emerged as the type of cornerstone position player clubs are hoping to find during a rebuild.
There’s surely robust interest from teams around the league in acquiring Reynolds, but it’d be a major surprise if he’s ultimately moved. Pittsburgh reportedly rebuffed huge demand for the left-handed hitter at the deadline, viewing him as a potential anchor of their next competitive club. That won’t stop teams from calling coming out of the lockout, but all indications to this point are that the Pirates don’t have much interest in parting with Reynolds.
The Bucs can control the 26-year-old (27 in January) for another four seasons via the arbitration process. They surely have their sights set on competing within that time frame, and Reynolds isn’t slated to hit free agency until after his age-30 season. It’s justifiable for the front office to just hold onto him via arbitration, then, although the organization would likely have interest in extending their window of club control an additional few seasons if Reynolds is amenable.
As a Super Two player, Reynolds is already in line for his first significant salary this winter. He’s projected to make $4.5MM in 2022, which could lessen his desire to push back his path to free agency for more up-front security. We’ve seen a few extensions for outfielders in this service bucket in the past, but Reynolds’ offensive track record to date far surpasses those of players (Max Kepler, Kevin Kiermaier, Ender Inciarte) who have signed this kind of deal.
In all likelihood, a Reynolds extension would probably have to set a new precedent for players in this service class. For a Pirates’ franchise that has never gone beyond $60MM on a guaranteed contract, that kind of deal may not be in the cards. That said, the Pirates don’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the books beyond next season, so the possibility of committing to Reynolds long-term can’t be ruled out.
Aside from Reynolds, there’s little in the way of locks for outfield playing time. Ben Gamel avoided arbitration and will probably be in the mix. Former top prospect Anthony Alford finished the season on a bit of a hot streak and could get a look. The Bucs grabbed the out-of-options Greg Allen off waivers from the Yankees and will either have to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment themselves. Prospects Travis Swaggerty and Canaan Smith-Njigba each seem likely to begin the year in Triple-A but could debut within the first few months.
None of Gamel, Alford or Allen should stand in the way of the team looking into upgrades though. Pittsburgh has an estimated $39MM in 2022 commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, leaving a few million dollars even before reaching last year’s minuscule mark. The Pirates aren’t going to sign anyone in the Michael Conforto range, but they could look to the free agent outfield market for possible minor league or low-cost MLB deals in the Quintana/Pérez mold.
That’s also true of the rotation, which Cherington has expressed an interest in continuing to address. Quintana has a rotation spot and Thompson likely does as well after being acquired in the Stallings deal. JT Brubaker will probably get another shot. The right-hander allowed far too many home runs en route to a 5.36 ERA last year, but he posted solid strikeout and walk numbers.
Bryse Wilson, acquired from the Braves in last summer’s Richard Rodríguez swap, joins Mitch Keller as former top prospects who may be running out of chances. Both pitchers have strong pedigree but have yet to produce in the big leagues, either from a run prevention or peripherals perspective. Wilson is out of options, so he’ll likely be on the active roster in some capacity. Such players as Max Kranick, Dillon Peters, Miguel Yajure and Wil Crowe could be in the mix as depth options at the back end.
Given that collection of generally unestablished names, it’s no surprise Cherington’s open to further additions. The Pirates should be a target destination for reclamation candidates like Vince Velasquez, Zach Davies or Drew Smyly. In addition to the possibility of landing a rotation job, the pitcher-friendly nature of PNC Park could help arms of that ilk who have struggled with home runs in recent seasons.
As is the case for most rebuilding teams, the Pirates don’t have a ton of certainty in the bullpen. David Bednar and Chris Stratton are in line for high-leverage roles, although either could attract trade interest. Duane Underwood Jr. probably did enough in 2021 to earn a season-opening spot, and some members of the rotation depth mix will wind up working in shorter stints as well.
There’s room here, as there is throughout the roster, for some cheap fliers. There’s the possibility of a Rodríguez reunion; the Bucs’ former closer finished the year terribly in Atlanta and was non-tendered after the season. Yet he’s clearly capable of having success in Pittsburgh, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if the front office tried to bring him back. He’s just one of numerous options available, and the Bucs will probably bring in a few relievers on minors deals and/or waiver claims before the start of the season.
The Pirates are perennially hamstrung by payroll limitations, and they’re not going to make any impact splashes this offseason. There’s enough flexibility around the roster that the front office may just have their pick of bounceback/reclamation targets coming out of the lockout. For another season, though, the organization’s most important developments will likely be concentrated on the farm.
By Steve Adams | at
The Rays had a busy couple of weeks prior to the MLB lockout, but there’s still work to be done when transactions resume. Here’s a look at where things currently stand and what might be next in Tampa Bay.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
The Rays got a huge portion of their offseason lifting done prior to the lockout, extending Wander Franco on a record-setting contract for a player with under a year of service time. By guaranteeing Franco $182MM through the 2032 season, Tampa Bay solidified him as the face of the franchise and locked in a burgeoning star who turned in one of the more memorable rookie performances we’ve seen in recent years.
As is typical with the Rays, their early dealings involved plenty of tinkering with their arbitration class as well as what the team hopes will be some bargain additions on the pitching side. Gone are super-utility man Joey Wendle — traded to the Marlins for outfield prospect Kameron Misner — and lefty masher Jordan Luplow, who was sent to the D-backs for minor league infielder Ronny Simon. The Rays also parted ways with lefties Adam Conley (outrighted), Ryan Sherriff (claimed by the Phillies) and Dietrich Enns (granted his release to sign in Japan). Additionally, pre-arb righties Brent Honeywell (A’s) and Louis Head (Marlins) were swapped for cash.
Incoming arms include former Cy Young reclamation hopeful Corey Kluber, spin-rate standout Brooks Raley, bolstering the rotation and bullpen, respectively. There’s work to be done on both sides of the pitching staff still, however, particularly with ace Tyler Glasnow likely out for the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery. The Rays will also be without Yonny Chirinos early in the year after he fractured his elbow late in the 2021 season while rehabbing from 2020 Tommy John surgery. Lefty Brendan McKay, too, is a question mark after recently undergoing thoracic outlet surgery.
Among the potential members of the rotation — Kluber, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Yarbrough, Shane Baz and Luis Patino — only Yarbrough and McClanahan topped 110 innings this past season. Kluber managed just 80 innings and didn’t pitch particularly well in six starts upon returning from the IL late in the season. Yarbrough, meanwhile, posted a career-high 155 innings but also a career-worst 5.11 ERA in that time. Baz dazzled at Double-A, Triple-A and in three big league starts late in the season, but the ballyhooed top prospect was also hit hard in his lone postseason outing. He could follow McClanahan’s lead as a late-season debut who carves out a concrete rotation role the following year — but there’s also still some uncertainty surrounding both him and Patino, another touted top pitching prospect.
Suffice it to say, with plenty of talent but just as many questions surrounding the young arms on the staff, the Rays figure to be on the lookout for some further pitching help. They’re not a likely fit for high-priced free agents still sitting on the market (e.g. Carlos Rodon, Clayton Kershaw), but plenty of veterans who may command one-year deals remain unsigned (e.g. Matthew Boyd, Michael Pineda, Garrett Richards and old friend Drew Smyly). Similarly, it’d be a surprise to see the Rays trade for a relatively high-priced starter (e.g. Sean Manaea, Luis Castillo), but president of baseball ops Erik Neander, newly minted GM Peter Bendix and the rest of the Rays staff will be on the lookout for under-the-radar rotation adds (much like they found with Rasmussen during the 2021 season).
Of course, if the Rays were able to cull the current payroll a bit — projected at nearly $84MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez — perhaps there’d be a bit more room for an additional pitching splash. Tampa Bay reportedly discussed Kevin Kiermaier in trades at the same time Joey Wendle was being shopped, and it stands to reason that Kiermaier will again be made available post-lockout. While the Rays have explored Kiermaier trades for years now, the current market circumstances suggest a trade is now likelier than ever.
Kiermaier is entering the final guaranteed season of his six-year, $53.5MM contract extension and, at $12MM (plus a $2.5MM buyout on a 2023 option) is the team’s most expensive player in 2022. Excellent as Kiermaier is with the glove, Tampa Bay could move him and still boast arguably the best defensive outfield in baseball, with Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips and center field prospect Josh Lowe (already on the 40-man roster) all possessing high-end defensive skills.
Beyond that, there are several teams who could be eyeing center field upgrades, including the Phillies, Marlins, Astros and Cubs, to name a few. The Rays might have to pay down a bit of Kiermaier’s salary in a deal, although speculatively speaking, they could alternatively look to swap him for a comparably priced player who better fits the team’s needs (e.g. Craig Kimbrel, Jake Odorizzi).
While Kiermaier’s salary makes him a more obvious trade candidate, the Rays could also at least entertain interest in Margot instead, given that he’ll be a free agent next winter. A standout defender in his own right, Margot would hold similar or perhaps even broader appeal to teams with outfield vacancies and a preference for defensive upgrades.
Broadly speaking, when looking ahead for potential Rays moves, it’s always best to consider the possibility of them dealing from positions of great organizational depth. At the moment, that means outfield and perhaps middle infielders. Franco’s extension locks him into the lineup for more than a decade, and Brandon Lowe is signed through at least 2024 on a highly reasonably deal that includes a pair of team options. Meanwhile, the Rays still have well-regarded shortstop prospects like Taylor Walls, Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards. Both Walls and Brujan have made their big league debuts already. Dealing young prospects of that nature is never easy, and the Rays certainly wouldn’t mind keeping them as bench pieces or upper-level depth options, but they’ll surely receive interest in that perceived surplus. Teams that seek shortstop help in the long run but aren’t willing to pay one of Carlos Correa or Trevor Story, in particular, will be keenly intrigued.
Another general rule when looking for potential Rays moves is to follow the money. In this arbitration class, that means the aforementioned Margot and, perhaps more interestingly, Glasnow. The loss of Glasnow, who had Tommy John surgery Aug. 4, is a major blow to the Rays’ 2022 hopes. The team tendered him a contract knowing he’ll miss most or all of the season, which is only sensible given that he’s controllable through the 2023 campaign. That said, a projected $5.6MM salary for Glasnow amounts largely to dead money for the Rays in ’22, and Glasnow figures to earn that same sum (or a slight bit more, if he makes it back to the mound this year) in 2023 — his final year of team control.
Paying $11-12MM for what’s effectively one season of Glasnow (2023) is hardly burdensome, but for a low-payroll club like the Rays, it’s also not ideal. Tampa Bay surely wouldn’t make a salary-dump deal for a pitcher of this caliber; if the money were an issue he could’ve been non-tendered, so that’s clearly not the case. But, other teams with deeper pockets could also try to opportunistically bolster their 2023 hopes by giving the Rays some immediate help in 2022 at the cost of acquiring Glasnow for the 2023 season. It’s not necessarily a likely outcome, but larger-payroll clubs will undoubtedly inquire at the very least.
An underrated but nonetheless enviable aspect of the Rays is the team’s bench mix. Tampa Bay’s reserves figure to include a blend of versatile defenders (Walls, Brujan, Josh Lowe) and switch-hitters (Walls, Brujan, backup catcher Francisco Mejia) who currently or very recently ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. There’s room for third baseman Yandy Diaz and/or first baseman Ji-Man Choi to be pushed into a part-time role if either Brujan or Walls forces the team to adjust. And, with Franco able to handle third base, Brujan able to handle three infield spots, Brandon Lowe capable of playing second, first or in the outfield, Diaz capable of playing both corners — there’s a virtually limitless number of lineup permutations that could emerge from this grouping.
Whenever play resumes, the Rays will find themselves in a strong position. They already have a deep and talented MLB roster that’ll be anchored by a premium defense and one of the game’s most exciting young talents, Franco. The rotation has its share of question marks, but that’s true on a semi-regular basis and was perhaps never more true than in 2021, when Tampa Bay still went on to win 100 games.
The Rays could take the current iteration of their roster, as-is, into the 2022 season and likely be competitive in the American League East. The front office, however, could also elect to explore trades from the considerable outfield and middle-infield depth, perhaps dropping payroll a bit and then using that combination of trades and increased resources to further supplement the pitching staff. The Rays always have a fairly broad outlook, and that won’t change after the lockout. Whichever path Neander, Bendix & Co. choose to walk, the result figures to be a roster that may lack in name value but will make up for it in talent. In other words: business as usual for the Rays.
By Steve Adams | at
The Marlins sprinted through much of their offseason dealings in the week prior to the MLB lockout, making their biggest free-agent signing under the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group, swinging a pair of trades and extending their top arm. What’s left when the transaction freeze lifts?
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Miami’s four-year, $53MM contract with Avisail Garcia crossed one of the team’s top items off the wishlist, adding a power-hitting corner outfielder to a lineup that ranked 28th in the Majors in home runs this past season. The four-year term was a surprisingly big bet on a player who does most of his damage against left-handed pitching and has, in two of the past seasons, seen his end-of-year results at the plate clock in well below average. Garcia has hit well in the other three of those five campaigns, and the cumulative result is a solid .278/.335/.464 slash (113 wRC+).
Joining him as newcomers in the lineup will be former Rays infielder Joey Wendle and former Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings. Neither will add much in the way of pop, but Wendle gives the Fish a true super utility option who’s posted a .271/.326/.425 slash over his past 685 plate appearances. Wendle can handle any of second base, shortstop or third base quite well, and the Marlins could give him some outfield reps as well. He’ll be in the lineup more often than not, even if he won’t have a set everyday position.
Stallings, meanwhile, gives the Marlins one of the best defensive backstops in the game and a high-end framer to work with their young pitching staff. He’s hit .246/.333/.371 across the past two seasons and will serve as a major upgrade, on both sides of the ball, over the since-traded Jorge Alfaro (dealt to the Padres on Dec. 1).
Acquiring three new bats obviously represents a pretty sizable chunk of the Marlins’ offseason lifting, but they’re not done shopping just yet. General manager Kim Ng has already made clear that she hopes to add another outfielder to the bunch. Center field is still somewhat up in the air, though Ng said after signing Garcia that the Marlins believe he can play center if needed. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, that’d open the possibility of the Marlins pursuing another corner-outfield option, although playing Garcia in center seems suboptimal from a defensive standpoint. Miami has been tied to Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Eddie Rosario, but Castellanos and Schwarber are likely beyond their price range.
Adding another corner option and playing Garcia in center would be something of a surprise, but the free-agent market lacks a true, everyday option in center at this point. There are some center fielders available (e.g. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, Albert Almora Jr.), but none who profile as everyday options offensively. Meanwhile, there are plenty of corner bats who have some experience in center (e.g. Rosario, Joc Pederson), but none who’d profile as a regular in center from a defensive perspective.
If there’s one corner outfielder in particular who makes sense in Miami, it’s perhaps NPB star Seiya Suzuki, whose posting window will resume once the transaction freeze lifts. A star with Japan’s Hiroshima Carp, Suzuki will sign with a big league team in advance of his age-27 season. For a team that’s looking to continue improving but won’t be a division favorite in 2022, Suzuki is an ideal add. He’ll still be in his prime several years down the road, perhaps when Miami’s prospect core has further bolstered the MLB roster. There’s risk in signing a star player who is yet untested against MLB pitching, but that uncertainty also helps to tamp down the price point. Since 2018, Suzuki has batted .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He just won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in right field this past season. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, Suzuki becomes a much more interesting name to ponder.
However, the most straightforward path for the Marlins finish off their outfield would be to add a center fielder via the trade market, though the few available options would be tough to pry from their current teams. The Orioles and Pirates will at least listen to offers for Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds, for instance, but both players are controlled four more years and would come with through-the-roof asking prices. It’s a similar story with Arizona’s Ketel Marte, who’s guaranteed $8MM in 2022 before the team has a $10MM club option for 2023 and a $12MM club option for 2024. He’s a bit more expensive and has one fewer year of control, but Marte is the most established player of that trio.
The Marlins do have a wealth of young pitching and managed to acquire Wendle and Stallings without dealing from their very best young arms, but any of Mullins, Marte or Reynolds would require parting with several young talents, likely headlined by a pair of legitimate top prospects.
There could be other, less-talked-about options to pursue. Oakland’s Ramon Laureano will miss the first month-plus of the season while finishing out an 80-game PED ban, but that could perhaps drop the price on him a bit. He’s controlled another three seasons. Kevin Kiermaier will surely be available once again, and while he wouldn’t provide the offense the Fish are hoping to add, he’d follow the Stallings mold in providing one of the most notable defensive upgrades possible.
Speculating further, Miami could try to effectively purchase a prospect or two by bailing the Yankees out of the remainder of their Aaron Hicks deal — they’ve certainly acquired plenty of other former Yankees. Or, perhaps they could go in the other direction and buy low on a former top prospect like Seattle’s Taylor Trammell, who has yet to establish himself and may already be squeezed out of the long-term outlook with the Mariners. There’s a match to be made between the pitching-rich Marlins and the Twins, too, if Miami is comfortable playing Max Kepler in center field regularly.
Whatever route the Marlins go in the outfield, they’ll surely want to keep some playing time free for 24-year-old Jesus Sanchez, who hit 14 home runs in just 251 plate appearances as a rookie this past season. Sanchez’s 31.1% strikeout rate will need to come down, but he slashed .251/.319/.489 (116 wRC+), securing himself a lengthier look moving forward. Also in line for a larger look is 25-year-old Bryan De La Cruz, who hit .296/.356/.427 (albeit with a rather fortunate .380 average on balls in play) after coming over from the Astros in the Yimi Garcia trade. Former top prospect Monte Harrison is out of minor league options and could soon be out of opportunities if and when Miami adds another outfielder, given the options in line ahead of him.
That’s a lot of focus on one outfield spot for Miami, but that’s due largely to the fact that the lineup is otherwise mostly set. Stallings is locked in at catcher, and the Marlins have Jesus Aguilar (first base), Jazz Chisholm (second base), Miguel Rojas (shortstop) and Brian Anderson (third base) rounding out the infield. The aforementioned Wendle and fellow infielder/outfielder Jon Berti provide backup all around the field, while underrated slugger Garrett Cooper and prospect Lewin Diaz provide backups at first base.
In the event the DH is added to the National League, Aguilar could spend more time there in deference to the defensively superior Diaz. If Diaz needs more time in Triple-A, the Marlins could simply let Aguilar and Cooper share first base/DH duties. There’s perhaps room for another addition here to deepen the lineup, but don’t expect the Marlins to break the bank and sign Castellanos, Schwarber or another bat of that magnitude.
In the rotation, the Marlins are largely set, unless they want to bring in a veteran on a minor league deal just for additional depth purposes. Sandy Alcantara, who signed a five-year, $56MM extension that set a record for pitchers with between three and four years of MLB service time, will anchor the staff after ranking fourth in the Majors with 205 2/3 innings pitched this past season. He’ll be followed by breakout lefty Trevor Rogers, who notched a 2.64 ERA through 25 starts as a rookie in 2021. Righties Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez have spots largely assured, health permitting. Lefty Jesus Luzardo may have the inside edge on the fifth spot, but flamethrowing top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera will get their opportunities in 2022 as well.
Even beyond that top seven, the Marlins have enviable depth. Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett, Cody Poteet, Paul Campbell and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man roster and all have some big league time under their belts already. The Fish also still have 2020 No. 3 overall pick Max Meyer rising through the ranks. Fellow top prospect Jake Eder will miss 2022 due to Tommy John surgery but is highly touted in his own regard. Right-hander Eury Perez elevated his profile with a huge 2021 season in A-ball, and lefty Dax Fulton is also well-regarded.
Some of those arms — particularly those already on the 40-man — could end up in the bullpen, which is the other area the Marlins could look to upgrade. Dylan Floro, Anthony Bender, Anthony Bass and Richard Bleier are all locks for the ’pen. Lefty Steven Okert may have earned a 2022 spot as well. Still, there’s no shortage of relief arms available on the market — and the Marlins have spent on some veteran arms at the back of the relief corps in recent offseasons. Sergio Romo, Brandon Kintzler and Bass were all signed as free agents. It’s doubtful Miami would spend at the top of the remaining market (i.e. Kenley Jansen), but another modest one- or two-year deal for an underappreciated veteran seems plenty possible.
Whenever offseason activity finally resumes, the Marlins will still have some work to do — even if they’re not as active as they were in the days leading up to the shutdown. Look for Miami to cast a wide net as they seek one final outfield piece, and don’t be surprised if teams come calling on some of their starting pitchers, given that arguably unrivaled level of depth.
The NL East features the reigning World Series champs, the reigning NL MVP (Bryce Harper) and perhaps the most aggressive owner in the sport right now (the Mets’ Steve Cohen), making it a tough time for the Marlins to be looking to turn the corner. They’ll face a tough road, but with another savvy addition or two and some strides from the young arms on the roster, a playoff push in 2022 isn’t completely out of the question.
By TC Zencka | at
The Dodgers were once again a tier-one baseball club in 2021, but their streak of eight consecutive division titles came to an end, and their efforts to repeat were quashed in the NLCS.
Guaranteed Contracts
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Option Decisions
Free Agents
The career talent present on the Dodgers’ list of departing free agents is somewhat remarkable. It’s also somewhat misleading, as Pujols, Kershaw, Duffy, Hamels, et al, aren’t exactly in their prime, nor were they inner circle contributors to the club in 2021. Kershaw did his part, contributing 22 starts with a solid, if not Kershawian 3.55 ERA/3.00 FIP across 121 2/3 innings. That places him third on the team in innings, so he did his par. That said, by the time the playoffs rolled around, his year was done.
Bottom line: there are significant losses represented on that list, most notably thus far, Seager, Scherzer, and to a lesser extent, Knebel. Seager seemed destined to walk after the acquisition of Trea Turner at the trade deadline, though without him they’ll be pressured to pony up for the speedy ex-National, who is a free agent after next season. President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman values flexibility in his roster construction, and that’s evident in his handling of Seager. We could see a similar saga play itself out next winter, as the Dodgers could turn to Gavin Lux and/or Jacob Amaya rather than commit to a mega-contract for Turner.
But that’s tomorrow’s problem. For now, Trea Turner, Lux, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy make up a star-studded, if injury-prone starting infield. The health and age questions surrounding this group made the re-signing of Chris Taylor all the more crucial. With Taylor back in the fold for a reasonable $15MM per, the Dodgers can feel relatively stable with their infield group. Matt Beaty and Zach McKinstry are bench options on the Major League roster, while Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts give manager Dave Roberts extended flexibility because of their ability and willingness to move to the dirt on occasion.
All that said, there’s still room for another bat. Assuming there will be a designated hitter in the National League, the Dodgers could add a third baseman while allowing J. Turner to age gracefully into a bat-only role. Barring the addition of one of the star level bats remaining in free agency (think Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Freddie Freeman), the Dodgers could still make a play for a veteran utility man, who wouldn’t have to play every day, but could capably pinch-hit and fill-in at multiple positions around the diamond. To their benefit, having T. Turner, Taylor, and Lux means they’re probably covered at shortstop, which frees Friedman to lean more liberally in the direction of a bench bat. Speculatively speaking, someone like Asdrubal Cabrera could be a fit, but they could also bring back Albert Pujols or look at other veteran minimum types while waiting for youngsters like Amaya, Michael Busch, or Miguel Vargas to play themselves into a role.
In the outfield, Betts, Bellinger, and AJ Pollock line up as the opening day starters, but they could absolutely look to add another bat here as well. Taylor and Lux can play the outfield, as can Beaty and others on the roster, but Friedman is more likely to have too many options than not enough. Don’t be surprised if there’s another name added to this mix after the lockout.
The big picture of the position player side of things is that they aren’t as deep as in years past, but they’re still in better shape than most. And yet, if they’re looking to grow the overall depth on this club, there are arguably more bats available in free agency than arms, so we could see the Dodgers overindulge on this side of the ball to compensate for the losses on the pitching side.
Because for the first time in years really, there are reasons to wonder about the overall quality of the Dodgers’ pitching staff.
The rotation is the biggest area of concern right now. After all, the two most surprising decisions from the Dodgers so far this winter both relate to the rotation. Not issuing a qualifying offer to Kershaw definitely zagged from expectations, as did their not making a bigger push to retain Scherzer. Kershaw could still return, but if not, the Dodgers’ rotation is thinner than it’s been in years. Losing Kershaw would be a bigger blow than it’s being perceived right now, in part because Kershaw’s “legacy value” took a big hit by not being anywhere near the mound during the playoffs, and even in the regular season, he fell from the divine heights of prior seasons. But let’s not diminish the man: He posted 2.1 rWAR/3.4 fWAR and finished 11th overall by FIP among pitchers with at least 100 innings. In fact, by FIP alone, the Dodgers would be losing the 10th (Scherzer) and 11th (Kershaw) starters in the Majors. Sure, they got just 33 starts from the pair, so we can almost count them as a single starter, but they make a darn good one that the Dodgers will miss.
Also on the positive side of the ledger, the Dodgers still have Walker Buehler and Julio Urias as a tremendous, in-their-prime duo. In fact, those two finished just behind Scherzer/Kershaw as 14th and 15th in the Majors by FIP. But the Dodgers had a front-row seat to the Padres’ horror-show second half. Two starters – even stars – is not enough to helm a postseason rotation.
If Kershaw does ultimately re-sign, I’ll give a ’hear-hear’ – but if he doesn’t, they did, at least, strike quickly to add former Angels’ southpaw Andrew Heaney to the starting mix. Heaney struggled mightily after a deadline trade to the Yankees, but the Dodgers believe in his upside. Said Friedman, “He’s got really strong ingredients in place, and there are a few different levers we feel like we can potentially pull with him that he’s bought into and is eager to dive in on.” Despite his long-time reputation as a potential quality starter, Heaney’s 1.9 rWAR back in 2015 marked a career-high. Entering his age-31 season, it’s not impossible to imagine a re-brand in the mold of Wade Miley or, sure, dream big, Charlie Morton, but that’s a pipe dream – until it’s not.
Dustin May has a bright future, but he’s not due to return from Tommy John surgery until the second half of the season at the earliest. Tony Gonsolin slots in as the number four behind Heaney right now, but the 27-year-old hasn’t been trusted to hold down a regular rotation spot before, and solid as he’s been, the Dodgers clearly like him in a swing role. Fangraphs lists David Price as the fifth starter right now, and though the 36-year-old may very well end up in that role, it would be surprising if both Price and Gonsolin are among their starting five on opening day.
Rotation depth is more important now than ever, and though the Dodgers seem to have lost ground in the star power department, they did make a couple of low-key pickups during the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft that deepens their pool of potential arms. Carson Fulmer was once the eighth overall pick of the draft, and though it’s been a while since his mound work merited national attention, he is definitely worth a minor league contract. The same can be said for Jon Duplantier, who even more recently graced top prospect lists while coming up through the Diamondbacks’ system. Both are entering their age-28 season, an age at which Jake Arrieta still had a 5.23 career ERA. Neither Fulmer nor Duplantier has been even that good, but there’s no risk here for the Dodgers, and they need the depth.
They expressed some interest in the Reds’ available starters, but nothing came together before the lockout. That could still happen, or they could explore a deal for one or more of Oakland’s arms: Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, et al. Frankly, it was surprising that they didn’t make more of a push to bring back Scherzer. Still, even without a major addition, it’s worth remembering that the goal isn’t to build out a starting five – the goal is to build an organization capable of competing for 162 games.
It’s worth wondering if Scherzer’s contract just became too rich for Friedman’s tastes. On the one hand, that’s absurd, nothing and nobody should be too rich for the Dodgers. But practically speaking, the Dodgers ran out the highest payroll in baseball in 2021, and they might want to see how the now collective bargaining agreement changes luxury tax rules before barreling ahead into repeater tax territory. Fangraphs has their current 2022 payroll at ~$232MM, so their bed may already be made, but it’s only sensible to want the exact terms of the arrangement. Aside from the aforementioned Kershaw, most of the free agent starting pitching talent signed prior to the lockout. The Dodgers could still consider Carlos Rodon, whose health history is likely to lead to the type of shorter-term requirement the Dodgers prefer. Indeed, when the MLBTR staff was debating Rodon’s potential contract, they kicked around some kind of Bauer-lite high-dollar three-year arrangement.
Speaking of Bauer, last we saw of the divisive right-hander, he had been on extended administrative leave due to unresolved sexual assault allegations. As of now, it’s entirely unclear if he will be available to pitch in 2022 (or even if the Dodgers would welcome him back). MLB’s recent ruling on Marcell Ozuna’s violation of the MLB – MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy suggests the league office is not yet ready to levy significant penalties for players whose criminal court cases are dropped.
Still, Bauer’s case is more public than perhaps any prior violation, and one would expect greater backlash upon his return to the field. So long as the Dodgers remain responsible for paying the $70MM+ still owed the right-hander, they would be hard-pressed not to allow him to suit up, especially given their need on the hill. If, however, they are somehow let out of their contractual obligation to Bauer, they could allocate that money elsewhere – though any replacement would most likely be a downgrade from Bauer’s significant on-field potential. Needless to say, the cloud of these proceedings will hang over the Dodgers for some time.
In the bullpen, Joe Kelly and Corey Knebel have been replaced by Daniel Hudson, while long-time closer Kenley Jansen remains a free agent. Blake Treinen was amazing last season (1.99 ERA/2.88 FIP across 72 1/3 innings), Hudson has plenty of high-leverage experience, and it’s easy to dream on Brusdar Graterol’s potential, but the relief corps is very much a work-in-progress. After 12 years at the back of the Dodgers’ bullpen, the club may finally allow Jansen to walk away.
Whether they add starters, relievers, or the modern type of arm that can move between roles, they’re going to need more pitchers. They had 11 pitchers post more than half a win by fWAR in 2021, six of whom are either already gone or current free agents (Kershaw, Scherzer, Kelly, Nelson, Knebel, Jansen) and a seventh is Bauer. No need to panic: that’s a backward-looking approach, they can afford to print new jerseys, and the offseason isn’t over. But there’s work to be done.
In terms of the free agents available, Kershaw may be the best starter available, with Rodon and his checkered past also in the running. Other lesser names are available as well, perhaps led by Yusei Kikuchi. Many of the available free agent starters aren’t likely to ignite the fanbase, but the Dodgers have spun straw into gold before.
The relief market has a bit more juice with Jansen only one name among many that can be first division arms: Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Collin McHugh, Kelly, Nelson, and Adam Ottavino, to name a few. There’s still a chess move or two that the Dodgers could make without horribly overburdening their payroll.
Internally, Mitch White could find himself in a bigger role, Tommy Kahnle is coming back from Tommy John, and prospects like Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove aren’t far from seeing daylight (Grove is on the 40-man roster). There is some growth potential, but if nothing else, Buehler and Urias need to take over as the faces of Dodger pitching. Then again, it wouldn’t be hard to argue that they already are.
All told, while they await resolution on the Bauer and CBA fronts, the Dodgers had to charge ahead, thought they did so with a relatively quiet first half of the offseason. They made some minor additions, adding outfielder Jason Martin and right-hander Beau Burrows on minor league deals to build out their depth. But they also dealt away outfielders Billy McKinney and Zach Reks for cash considerations. Both had been designated for assignment as a means of being removed from the 40-man roster. Sheldon Neuse seemed like a classic Dodger project when he was acquired from the A’s, but he’s now in DFA purgatory until the lockout ends.
The Dodgers will be one of the more interesting teams to watch coming out of the lockout. Given their status as the top paying luxury tax team, the particulars of the new CBA could affect them more than any other club. Add in Bauer’s situation and Kershaw’s free agency, and the Dodgers are facing more uncertainty than they’ve seen in years. That said, their financial might is as great as ever, and even depleted by their free agent losses, they have one of the most talented rosters in the game. They also play in one of the most competitive divisions in the sport. With the Giants and Padres as formidable as ever, there’s no room to take a step back. After all, even with Betts, Buehler, Urias, the Turners, Taylor, Muncy, Bellinger, Will Smith, and more, the fact is, the Dodgers aren’t the champs anymore.
By Anthony Franco | at
The Astros are coming off their third pennant in the past five years, but they came up a couple games shy of a World Series title. As they set their sights on returning to the Fall Classic in 2022, they’ve retained their skipper and a future Hall of Fame starter. Looming over the entire winter, though: the potential departure of their franchise shortstop.
Guaranteed Contracts
Total 2022 commitments: $151.85MM
Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Option Decisions
Free Agents
The Astros came up a couple games short of a World Series title, but they kicked off their offseason by trying to preserve continuity. Within the first few days, Houston signed manager Dusty Baker to a one-year extension. The accomplished skipper will be back for a third year at the helm, although he’ll be without highly-regarded pitching coach Brent Strom, who left the organization to take the same role with the Diamondbacks.
While a World Series title continues to elude the highly respected Baker, there’s little question he’s been an important stabilizing force over his first two years. The veteran skipper was hired to replace A.J. Hinch over the 2019-20 offseason amidst the self-inflicted organizational tumult due to the sign-stealing scandal. Yet Baker has stepped in and guided the Astros as far as the AL Championship Series in both seasons, and agreeing to an extension seemed like a fairly easy call for general manager James Click and the front office.
Equally obvious was the decision to bring back Yuli Gurriel via an $8MM club option. He’s coming off a batting title and will reprise his role as the regular first baseman. Not long after exercising Gurriel’s option, Houston made a bolder strike. Within an hour of rejecting the team’s $18.4MM qualifying offer, Justin Verlander agreed to re-sign on a $25MM guarantee that contains a matching player option for the following season, conditional on reaching 130 innings pitched next season.
It’s a heavy investment for a pitcher coming off two seasons lost to Tommy John surgery, yet it goes without saying that Verlander’s a unique case. He was a Cy Young award winner during his last healthy season, and there aren’t more than a handful of pitchers teams would rather run out in the first game of a postseason series than peak Verlander. Whether he can regain that form in his age-39 campaign remains to be seen, but he’ll slot into the top of the starting staff.
Even sans Verlander, Houston had an impressive rotation. Yet it now looks like one of the game’s best, as he’ll be followed by Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Framber Valdez, Jake Odorizzi and perhaps Cristian Javier. That’s an enviable combination of young talent and depth, one that could result in a trade coming out of the transactions freeze. Rival clubs would surely jump at the opportunity to acquire a controllable young starter like Garcia or Valdez, yet it’d be a surprise if the Astros entertained that kind of arrangement.
An Odorizzi deal, on the other hand, seems very possible. The veteran hurler publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the team’s seeming reluctance to let him work through opposing lineups three times during his starts. Odorizzi, Baker and Click all downplayed the possibility of that affecting the parties’ long-term relationship, but a deal arguably makes sense even independent of personal considerations. After all, there’s a case that Odorizzi should slot sixth or seventh among the Astros’ deep starting mix, but he’d be a definitive upgrade to plenty of other clubs’ rotations.
Trading the veteran righty should clear most or all of his $8MM salary for 2022 off the books, which could give the Astros flexibility to bolster other parts of the roster. There aren’t many weak points, but adding to a bullpen that was middle-of-the-pack in 2021 could be a target area. Houston’s already taken one step in that regard this winter, signing former Phillies closer Héctor Neris to a two-year guarantee. Yet they’ve also seen Kendall Graveman, Yimi García and Brooks Raley walk in free agency, and solidifying the bridge to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly could be of interest.
A southpaw to pair with Blake Taylor could be particularly helpful. The free agent crop of lefty relievers is thin, but Andrew Chafin and Tony Watson are among the generally reliable veterans coming off good years who remain on the market. On the trade front, perhaps the Twins would be willing to make Taylor Rogers available.
The Astros’ early offseason activity has primarily revolved around the pitching staff, yet nothing hangs over the offseason more than the shortstop situation. Carlos Correa is the top free agent on the market, and the possibility of the Astros losing one of their franchise players looms large. Houston owner Jim Crane is reportedly disinclined to go beyond a six-year guarantee in the Correa pursuit. With the two-time All-Star having a strong case for a deal that runs into the next decade, it seems increasingly likely he’ll wind up elsewhere in the weeks following the lockout.
If Correa does walk, how does Houston approach the position? They could pivot to the other star free agent shortstop available, Trevor Story. The former Rockie might land a contract in the five-year or six-year range with which Crane seems to be more comfortable, and the Astros expressed some interest in Story before the transactions freeze. Yet Story’s coming off his worst offensive showing in four years, and it remains to be seen if the Astros want to commit a nine-figure investment to another infielder with José Altuve and Alex Bregman each slated to earn at least $29MM annually between 2023-24.
That’s particularly true given the presence of top prospect Jeremy Peña. A highly-regarded defensive shortstop, Peña missed most of the 2021 campaign recovering from wrist surgery. He returned late in the year and hit well over two months at Triple-A before being added to the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft. Turning shortstop over to Peña right out of the gate might be too risky for a win-now club, but it’s possible the organization is counting on him to seize the job by the middle of the year.
If that’s the case, then a stopgap option might be preferable. Utilityman Aledmys Díaz could be in consideration for such a role, although he’s not an ideal fit at the position defensively. A run at a glove-first shortstop to split time with Díaz could make some sense. In such a scenario, the superior defender could get the bulk of the playing time behind ground-ball specialists like Valdez and McCullers while Díaz plays behind a fly-ball oriented pitcher in the Urquidy or Garcia mold. Andrelton Simmons, probably the best defensive shortstop of this generation, is available in free agency and could likely be had for a low-cost, one-year deal. On the trade market, players like Nick Ahmed, Paul DeJong and Isiah Kiner-Falefa might all be made available.
The rest of the starting lineup is pretty well set. Gurriel, Altuve and Bregman will have the remainder of the infield locked down. Martín Maldonado and Jason Castro are back to share the catching duties. Michael Brantley will play left field regularly, so long as he’s healthy. Kyle Tucker is established in the other corner. Yordan Álvarez is the designated hitter, and he’s capable of spelling Brantley in left on occasion to give the 34-year-old a breather.
There’s an outside chance of Houston making a splash in center field. They’ve been linked to stars there in trade over the past few months, and it’s possible they inquire about players like Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds coming out of the lockout. It seems unlikely either the Orioles or Pirates wind up pulling the trigger on that kind of deal, though, and the free agent center field market is completely barren.
Barring a surprise trade strike for a star, José Siri and Chas McCormick seem likely to hold down center, with Jake Meyers also in the mix whenever he’s fully recovered from shoulder surgery. None of those players are locks to provide above-average production, but they all played well as rookies in 2021. Relying on that group shouldn’t be all that problematic, and the Astros can reevaluate midseason if all three players regress.
Aside from shortstop, the Astros’ position player group might be the most stable around the league. There’s virtually no other uncertainty other than how to replace (or retain) Correa. Perhaps a right-handed hitting corner outfielder/DH could be of interest, as each of Brantley, Tucker and Álvarez hit left-handed. Yet all three players are going to be in the lineup on most days anyhow, so that’d be more of a luxury buy than anything else.
Even facing the possibility of Correa walking, the Astros will go into 2022 with a quality roster. They’re returning the bulk of a lineup that was the league’s most productive by measure of wRC+ this past season. The starting staff is strong enough they could consider trading from the depth. The bullpen may be the comparative weak point on the roster, but one more addition — particularly from the left side — could tie that group together nicely.
There should be opportunity for Click and his staff to add, even if dropping $300MM+ on Correa may not be in the cards. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects the club’s 2022 payroll at $170MM, around $15MM – $20MM below where it sat heading into 2021. Houston narrowly ducked below the luxury tax threshold this year as well, so it’s possible they’ll be willing to exceed that figure (wherever it lands in the next CBA) after resetting their tax bracket to avoid escalating penalties.
The Astros aren’t operating in a vacuum. While the A’s look likely to take a step back, the other three teams in the AL West have been among the most active this offseason. The Rangers probably aren’t yet serious threats, but the Mariners and Angels could push towards the top of the division if everything goes well.
Those clubs will have their work cut out for them knocking the Astros from their perch, though, even after accounting for the potential loss of Correa. His departure would certainly make them worse, but there’s so much talent on the roster that the window’s in no danger of closing completely. Regardless of what they do over the coming months, Houston should enter 2022 as one of the top contenders in the American League.
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