Star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki waited out the lockout in search of a deal with an MLB team this offseason. The league and Players Association agreed to freeze his posting window during the work stoppage. The official lifting of the lockout restarted the clock, giving teams twenty days to finalize an agreement.
Suzuki has reportedly drawn interest from upwards of a dozen teams this winter, and Jon Heyman of the MLB Network lists five (via Twitter) that have been prominent players: the Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox. That’s not necessarily a group of finalists, to be clear, but it seems those teams are among Suzuki’s top suitors.
Four of those clubs — Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston — have been known entrants in the bidding for some time. A report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports in January named the four clubs as among those likely to remain factors until he chooses a destination. The Dodgers, though, hadn’t been strongly linked to Suzuki until this point.
Los Angeles doesn’t necessarily have a need in the outfield. Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger and AJ Pollock make for a strong starting trio, and Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux could see some action on the grass as well. The Dodgers haven’t been shy about acquiring talent even in the absence of an obvious weakness on the roster, however. And Los Angeles is clearly open to further bolstering an already strong offense, as they’re reportedly making a run at Freddie Freeman. Manager Dave Roberts isn’t afraid to move even his best players around the diamond, and the implementation of the universal designated hitter could allow NL teams to cast a wider net in search of talent.
With a little under three weeks before Suzuki has to make a decision, there still seems to be a decent array of possible landing spots. Only 27 years old, Suzuki should appeal both to win-now clubs like the Dodgers and teams (the Cubs perhaps among them) that are eyeing 2023 and beyond as more realistic windows of contention. He’s coming off a monstrous .317/.433/.639 showing with the Hiroshima Carp, for whom he’s been a strong middle-of-the-order bat in recent years. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke earlier in the offseason generally suggested Suzuki could immediately be a solid everyday right fielder in MLB.
Whoever signs Suzuki will owe the Carp a posting fee on top of the guarantee that goes to the player himself. The fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.
Redsox. Duhhhhh
Cubs need this guy like they need Hemorrhoids.
What the Cubs really need is to get rid of Heyward and trade Happ for a RP. If there is a big enough sucker to take Heyward that is. I’d rather talk Sczcur out of retirement.
Do they really? I mean unless they plan to contend you might as well leave him on the roster. There is no reason to give up prospects to move his contract if it is just so you don’t have to look at him anymore. You might as well leave him there and if he has a good year in the final year of his contract (22?23? Not sure) someone might want to pick him up as a defense first guy at the deadline so you get something out of it rather than giving something up.
I thought the Cubs made their season changing move before the lock out when they signed Clint Frazier m.
Why on earth would they have to give up prospects? All they’d have to do is throw in some cash. Not like Ricketts doesn’t have any.
Cubs fans are delusional and think they should be competitive this year so they look at the weak spots on the team and suggest dumb trades like heyward. That’s why they flood the mlbtr chats with can the cubs win if they sign, (insert the top 5 remaining free agents) questions every chat. Teams like the cubs who have no business contending don’t need to eat assets to get rid of heywards contract because they aren’t going to be competitive enough for it to matter. For a franchise who followed the perfect playbook and finally won you clowns a championship, you sure didn’t learn anything on how to build a winner. Hopefully they take that banner away from you people.
THANK YOU
Hey Dolt, the Cubs aren’t going to contend this year and nobody believes they will. And I mean nobody so your argument is as stupid as you are. I’ve been trying to get them to get rid of Heyward since the day they signed him, It was a huge mistake. I want him gone to clear the way for young OF’s they have that actually could use the playing time as opposed to Heyward sucking up AB’s in a rebuild.
You posting on here is your way of getting the cubs to move a player? How is that working for you? I bet all the GMs read this to get advice from fans like you. Keep posting though they might have missed it.
Nooooooooo! I’m a half Japanese Red Sox fan and I don’t like the deals coming in from Japan. Sure, we missed out on Otani, but think of what his price tag would have done to the options we have now. We’d be looking for cheap pitching just to be able to afford to play the game. Let someone else carry Suzuki’s bags.
To the Angels? So we can trade off a young OF for an arm?
Or just sign an arm.
Come it’s more likely they do another 10 year mega deal for Freddie lol it would be very on brand for Moreno
Boston is the obvious choice here…..please bench Jackie Bradley Jr….
I still cannot believe they gave up Renfroe to get him back. I don’t want to hear about the prospects attached, just for having to pay JBJ for 2 years is an L in my book.
1 year at $11m.
JBJ is costing Boston 1 year, $17M due to his huge, $6M buyout on his 2023 option. Makes this deal look even worse, doesn’t it? This is why Boston has to get Suzuki or someone comparable to play RF.
While there may be many reasons for a certain team to sign a certain player, it still takes two to tango. Every team has a budget, and every team places a value on every player they’re interested in. If the numbers don’t work that player signs elsewhere.
It can make all the sense in the world for Boston to sign Suzuki, but if Suzuki gets a better offer from another team that places a higher value him, or has more salary space, that he likes better, no amount of it being a good fit for Boston, matters.
They must have spoken to “someone” and believe he’ll play in Boston. Most reports say he wants the west coast. Anyway, the idea is to sell high. JBJ had no other takers after last year and the team obviously believes the deal was worth it. Based on past Tampa deals, it wouldn’t be far fetched to at season end, people realize JBJ outplayed Renfroe and the two I’m the minors were well worth the total salary cost incurred.
Then Plan B takes over. Sox only get screwed if Suzuki signs after Schwarber, Bryant. Castellanos, et al.
Dorothy_Mantooth11 hours ago
JBJ is costing Boston 1 year, $17M due to his huge,
====================================
Barring a complete collapse, the contract is a $21.5M/2 contract. I’ve seldom seen a regular hitter have a season as bad as he did in 2021, but it is also pretty unusual to see someone wash out at age 31.
Based on past Tampa deals, it wouldn’t be far fetched to at season end, people realize JBJ outplayed Renfroe
====================================
Always important to remember guys like Renfroe. Some of the posters bemoaning the loss of Renfroe, also hated the Renfroe trade.
Renfroe had a .645 OPS with TB in 2021, but he also had a .788 with SD before that. His RS season was almost exactly in line with his SD numbers. Unless you’re old, or injured, I wouldn’t write off a player off of one bad season.
Giant L, Rumors. What an awful move that was. JBJ is a joke at the plate and his defense has become overrated.
Not sure what team you watch, but its not the Red Sox. JBJ’s defense is NOT overrated. I watched him on a daily basis for a long time, and you could make a highlight film once a week on him. His bat is weak, and 17M is too much, but Milwaukee made that deal, not the Red Sox. The trade involved the Red Sox getting 2 quality prospects with Bradley. That has to be factored into what they’re paying him.
Denny, he’s two years older than when you last watched him everyday. You think he got better? lol
Where did I say he got better? People here always trying to put words in others mouths. lol. Sixth ranked Defensive CFer out of 30, in ’21, according to Fangraph. That means damnn good.
“Obvious choice:? How so? When wealthy teams like the Dodgers are involved, or wealthy teams with a ton of salary space, like the Giants, are involved, it’s pretty much up in the air still.
Cubs, please sign this guy. Thank you.
Can’t wait for the intl draft…..
When it happens it will be for amateurs only. Suzuki would not be eligible.
Can’t wait for people to be smart enough a 27 year old Japanese guy isn’t going to be draft eligible. And if you think Japan is going to allow any of their 16-18 year old to get drafted I got some news for you.
Go Padres for Suzuki!
What does everyone have against Honda? Totally unfair.
No significant (that I recall) position player from Japan has ever not signed with a west coast team …… unless it’s the Yankees
Kaz Matsui.
Nori Aoki.
Munenori Kawasaki
Shun Yamaguchi.
Shogo Akiyama.
Fukudome. Harry Carrey mentioned the breakdown of this last name during a broadcast.
Fukudome was still playing in Japan. He’s 44. He was Mr. April for the Cubs.
Yankees are overflowing in RF, he won’t be signing there. Several other more pressing needs.
Not to mention NYC has become the country’s leader in hateful behavior against Asians. All the publicity of what’s been going on there I’m guessing doesn’t sit well with Suzuki.
Yoshitomo Tsutugo.
Well, I believe the answers above confirms @Traffickers suspicions.
Rob – What exactly is his suspicions? That only significant Japanese position players refuse to play anywhere on the east coast except NYC, but all other Japanese players don’t mind? What evidence does he have to support that claim? And does it really make sense that Japanese position players would feel differently about geographic preference than Japanese pitchers?
Honestly, Traffic sounds like a west coast team’s fan trying to convince himself that Suzuki will sign with his team.
Kosuke Fukudome.
Tad Iguchi.
Do you need me to go on?
He’s still waiting on *significant.* So am I.
I guess the only two position players that fit your criteria are Ichiro and Ohtani (if you consider Ohtani’s DHing and rare OF cameos as him being a position player)?
Ichiro.
@Fletcher, Ichiro, Ohtani and Matsui (of the Godzilla variety) are by far and away considered the most significant position players to come from Japan, and even Ohtani originally was considered more likely to hit it (pun intended) as a pitcher. Ichiro and Matsui are and remain at “rock star” level status in Japan and were expected to be impact players in MLB. All the others mentioned were considered much lower players, and in fact, all of the ones mentioned came to MLB with questions attached if they could make it.
Suzuki is not considered in the Ichiro and Matsui class, but he’s considered well above the other players mentioned.
Now, I have no idea if that’s what @Traffickers was suggesting when he inserted “significant” in his sentence. I was originally going to mention other position players as @Pangolin did, but stopped once I calculated “significant” into the equation. I’m not sure, however, what “significance” adds here as there is certainly evidence Japanese players will play in many places not on the West Coast.
I missed the “not” signed part of the original post, so saying Ichiro was kind of stupid. That said, your’s was a good post, though I would add Nomo to your 3.
Dice-K??
Oh you said position player. I’ll see myself out.
Welcome to the club.
Well the fact is Matsui is not considered even close to the Ichiro class. It’s Ichiro by far probably be ohtani and then Matsui. The reality is Ohtani and Matsui are a far distant 2nd and 3rd and at this point it’s not even an argument. Ohtani has a chance to close the gap with Ichiro but let’s be real right now it’s Ichiro and everyone else from Japan a distant second and not even close.
Tsuyoshi Shinjo
Akinori Iwanura
Yoshi Tsutsugo
Isuro Tanaka
Dumb comment dude. Ichiro is the only significant position player on west coast. Great sample size there bud.
Ohtani
Whether Ohtani is pitching or DH’ng, neither one makes him a position player.
My guess is a West Coast team, with the Giants stepping up. They signed Rodon to replace Gausman’s role, now they’ll add another bat with Posey retiring. Signing a young impact OFer will fit the Zaidi model based on the Giants needs.
Guards gotta make some sort of statement move. We have Straw penciled in at center…and that’s it.
Suzuki is going to San Francisco.
I also think the chances of the Dodgers getting or should I say signing Freeman for six years are about zero.
I agree on Suzuki but not on the dodgers. Their pipeline in the minors is pretty dried up right now so if they want to keep the party going they are going to have to work in free agency
If you think the Dodgers pipeline is dried up you’re going to be pretty surprised over the next 2-3 years.
I think this years pipeline is dry and then it kicks back into gear. The only ones IMO locked for some MLB time this year (barring injuries to them) are Pepoit, Busch, and maybe Miller. Burns is a possibility too
I’m assuming (since the details on the new CBA are silent on it) that the posting fee won’t cost against the luxury tax?
If so, that (plus Rodon and Kershaw signing with the Giants/Dodgers) makes me think he’s Boston bound..
“Whoever signs Suzuki will owe the Carp a posting fee on top of the guarantee that goes to the player himself. The fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.”
It helps to read to the end of the article.
Not seeing where that mentions luxury tax implications?
But then, I skipped over reading most of your response too, since it didn’t seem to contain any new information.
CC, ignore this knucklehead. You’re correct, your question is not addressed in the story. I’m gonna assume that since a posting fee is NOT related to what a team will be paying the player, that it is therefore not gonna go towards the tax number. In other words it’s not part of Suzukis salary so it’s not related to the “salary cap”. My thoughts anyway, cc
I think they made a mistake in the article. The posting fee goes to the team and not the player himself. Given that the posting fee goes to the former team, I don’t believe it counts against the team’s CBT.
Dorothy_Mantooth:
I don’t think the article is wrong. It might have been edited, because on first reading I thought the same thing. But the article is saying the posting fee, going to the Carp, is in addition to what they will pay Suzuki.
I do agree that I don’t think it applies to the CBT.
Where does that explain luxury tax?
Pangolin13 hours ago
Pangolin13 hours ago
“Whoever signs Suzuki will owe the Carp a posting fee on top of the guarantee that goes to the player himself. The fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.”
It helps to read to the end of the article.
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Pangolin, nothing you wrote addresses the CBT.
It helps to read what you wrote.
@cc
It hasn’t changed – any and all posting fees DO count against the CBT, but the Giants aren’t anywhere remotely close to reaching it. Not this year, anyway. And I’d guess not for at least another year or two – if then! They want Suzuki, and the CBT isn’t on their radar – for the time being.
Are you sure of that, goob? Doesn’t seem right to me.
Goob is absolutely right. Even with Rodon, the Giants are at about $131 million. The departures of Posey, Gausman and Cueto freed up an enormous amount and they won’t be anywhere near the CBT threshold.
No fair asking me if I’m sure! Let’s say I’m fairly certain.
I just did a Google search. So, apparently it didn’t count against the CBT in 2014 – the only dang article I could find on the subject. But I thought it did count in the now just-expired 2017 through 2021 CBA and assumed it would remain in the new CBA.. So now I’m just not sure anymore. Somebody has to have the skinny on this – anybody?
Not to mention, Belt and Longoria could be off the books after this season too. Giants are in an excellent spot financially — no albatross long-term deals.
The giants are so far from the tax it really isn’t an issue. Payroll for last year was around 120mm and with gausman posey and cueto off the books it means you were starting FA this year down about 60mm from there. Rodon puts them up a little but they prolly have a good 90-100mm of space
The fact that LA re-signed Kershaw, and SF signed Rodon is completely irrelevant to where Suzuki signs. Did you think the Rangers were out on Seager when they signed Semien?
I am leaning toward him signing with the Giants as team 1A and the M’s being 1B. Dodgers OF seems a little heavy and while they have the $ I don’t think they are a realistic landing spot. Cubs have zero shot. Red Sox are the only EC team with a legitimate chance but my dark horse team are the Rangers, I could easily see them swooping in and he could put up some crazy #’s there with a 2/3/4 of Semien/Seager/Suzuki.
Zero?
Good lord, the new CBA should have put a hard cap for the Dodgers…First, resigning Chris Taylor and Kershaw, then going after Freeman, and now they’re going after Suzuki too!?!
How many good players do the Dodgers really need!?! GO AWAY!!!..If they get either Freeman or Suzuki I just quit.
And yes, I’m extremely jealous!! lol
I’ll take “ I don’t understand cab’s for 400, Alex”
I would not be surprised to see the A’s in on the sweepstakes a la Cespedes.
I would be surprised given his asking price.
Look at Darvishs Twitter
Boston is a done deal it will be announced by Sunday Giants fans can cry about it
He was spotted in Scottsdale near the giants complex.
FletcherFan69 — The all-knowing FletcherFan69 has spoken.
Beginning to sound like the Dodgers are trying to have 25 All-Stars on their roster.
The Dodgers should be to blame for the whole CBA problems in the offseason. They are single-handedly the reason the league was so bullish over setting bigger luxury tax penalties. They are also the reason as a fan that I believe there should be. Nobody wants to see a team just throw money at a World Series trophy.
You left out the Rangers, so now he’s going there.
Marlins Fans are so hot for this guy.
As are Giants fans.
Any relation to the Samurai?
Natural fit for Giants……they even have hired a Japanese speaking staff member……
Wow… they gave a Japanese speaking person a job? Clearly they are up to something because otherwise that is unforgivable.
I was hoping the Guardians would be in on him. Low cost player that would fit in well with their outfield.
It remains to be seen just how “low cost” he’ll be. I think MLBTR’s original guesstimate was 5/$55..? I’m guessing it’s going to be much more than that now.
I always root for The (now) Guardians (unless they’re playing my team) because I hate to see any fanbase not get a championship for such a long time. That’s what killed me about the Cubs/Indians series – both long-suffering fanbases really “deserved” a championship. So, good luck to you – and go Guards.
Dodgers “don’t have a need for another outfielder” so of course they are in on him.
They’re clearly looking to add a bat with the addition of the DH, hence stories around the Dodgers being in on Freeman, Cruz and Suzuki. They componentize their roster as well as any team.
I’ll bet my lunchable he signs with the Angels
If I was 12yo too, I’d take that bet.
Suzuki is coming to Seattle to be coached by Suzuki. Then we will trade Haniger to one of you that missed out. Heck maybe they can lobby the league to get his first on his jersey like Ichiro did. Hat to see Haniger go but that is NB.
He’s been in San Diego the past two days per his IG story.