Earlier this morning, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that the Red Sox had jumped into the bidding on star first baseman Freddie Freeman, and just hours later, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that the Padres, too, are looking into the possibility of signing Freeman.
The level of sincerity behind the Padres’ apparent interest isn’t clear. On the one hand, Freeman would unequivocally deepen their roster and bolster their lineup in a major way. On the other, the Padres already have a pricey first baseman, Eric Hosmer, whom they’ve been trying to trade in an effort to escape the remaining four years and $59MM on his contract. There’s also the fact that one of Freeman’s reported suitors, the Dodgers, just so happen to be a division rival for the Padres. Making an effort to drive up the price wouldn’t be out of the question.
That said, it’s worth taking a peak at just how a potential Freeman signing would impact the Padres, both in 2022 and in the long-term. The impact on the actual 2022 payroll would depend on contract structuring, but even a backloaded deal would boost the Padres’ currently $200MM payroll substantially.
Looking beyond the current season, the contracts of Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Fernando Tatis Jr., Drew Pomeranz, Ha-Seong Kim, Nick Martinez and Luis Garcia total about $114MM in guaranteed money. That doesn’t include player options for Jurickson Profar and Robert Suarez, which could be exercised — nor does it include arbitration raises to the likes of Dinelson Lamet, Austin Adams, Tim Hill, Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. Factoring in all of that, a Freeman deal could take reasonable 2023 payroll projections north of $160MM.
The broader concern would be the luxury-tax obligations associated with a Freeman deal. If he is indeed seeking something in the vicinity of $30MM annually, that’d send the Padres back into luxury-tax territory for what would be a second straight season. The Padres currently have about $217MM in luxury obligations, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, and there’s no getting around the huge CBT hit associated with any potential Freeman deal.
In fact, even if the Padres were able to move the entirety of Hosmer’s contract — which seems unlikely without at least taking some money back on in return — the subtraction of that $18MM luxury hit would only narrowly drop the Padres below $200MM in total. In other words, even if San Diego somehow traded all of Hosmer’s deal and replaced him with Freeman, the new contract would still push the Padres right back up against CBT precipice.
It’d be a surprise to see San Diego draw up a five- or six-year offer at top-of-the-market dollars to bring in Freeman when they’re still trying to unload Hosmer’s contract, but Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is never one to shy away from an unexpected move.
Does this mean he’s not going there?
Perhaps they should be writing about who ISN’T interested in Freeman, that might be a much shorter list.
“Pirates and Orioles not interested in Freddie”
Pirates would be very very interested in Freeman. 3/37 would be my guess at their best offer
Orioles would be 4/30
“The following teams aren’t interested in Freddie: Braves, Atlanta… that is all”
Of course they are. Who aren’t they interested in? They’d probably be interested in Tom Brady if he was available.
Bingo! I understand that this is a rumors site. That said, to say that the Padres have an “interest” in any established player that a division rival shows interest in–is a given. Like tomorrow, the sun will rise in the east.
Put up or shut up
That sun continues to burn my eyes. To quote Jessica Day…”the sun…hellfire!”
I’m thinking it’s less that the Padres are interested and more shoddy/lazy reporting at this point. There’s not a chance the Padres are interested in half of the players that they are supposedly pursuing. I’d take these rumours with a huge grain of salt. He’s going to the Dodgers.
“He’s going to the Dodgers.”
Because??
Yeah, he’s going to the Dodgers. I’d take THAT with a grain of salt. If the Padres can craft a deal that Freeman’s people like, and Preller wants him badly enough, Seidler will pay, and Freeman will go to the Padres, luxury tax or not.
After the past few years of Preller, of Padre’s spending, what in the world makes a guy cocky enough to declare that Freeman is absolutely taking a Dodger’s deal? It really gets down to how Preller designs the team. Yeah, he’s got irons in ALL the fires. The Pads seem to need an OF more than a 1B, but one doesn’t turn down a Freddie Freeman if he becomes available to you. I think Suzuki is a more likely signing than Freeman, but I’d never declare that “Suzuki’s going to the Padres”, and ignore the Dodgers, or any of another half dozen or so teams in the hunt for OF help.
We’ll see what happens.
Charlie Freeman pushing his dad to play alongside Tatis.
I would be okay with this as opposed to LA
Because the Dodgers are actually a threat. The Padres just keep shooting themselves in the foot.
How? Freeman spends most of his time on a baseball field instead of a doctor’s office.
That was good lol
#gotheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeem
Logo69 …If Tatis can ever stay on the field.
He led the league in HR’s last year while missing time and with a dislocated shoulder….Tatis at 80% is still better than almost everyone in the NL.
He hasn’t played in 80% of his games yet
He’s played in 100% of his games.
I think you meant he hasn’t played in 80% of possible games he could have played in lol
Lol, that may be true. But Charlie’s just a fan, while his dad is a businessman, managing the family business (while playing some pretty good ball on the side).
They can’t add the contract. Next….
they could – they just need to move something. for example hosmer + prospects for cash would offset salary and in division teams like the giants and dodgers would probably be takers as long as it did something like pay down a portion from 2023 on when the payroll drops.
Who’s going to take Hosmer’s contract and pay cash to the Padres? The answer is no one.
@hockeyjohn Um, if the Padres add cash and a guy like Hassell, Campusano, or CJ Abrams?? Lol, here we go again. “Hosmer’s an albatross, no one would take him, the Padres have jacksh***t for prospects, nobody worth anything ..” and blah..blah..blah.
Hosmer’s definitely deal-able, if the Padres want to move him. But, on the other hand, the Padres (i.e. Seidler) may just say “to heck with the luxury tax” constraints, just buy what they need, and worry about the luxury tax next year. Hosmer isn’t a minor leaguer. Teams do have “bench” players, and that’s where Hosmer would end up, as a very expensive bench player. His salary is a sunk cost. Whether or not the Pads can make a deal to move him, there is NO evidence, none whatsoever, that the Pads wouldn’t exceed the lux tax to get what they feel they need. Some might mention Scherzer, but he was an expensive half-season rental, and the Pads needed more than that to push them over the top (a whole LOT more, as things turned out). Buying Freeman or Suzuki, and/or maybe pitching help, pushing them over the lux tax, isn’t a deal breaker.
Why would in division rivals want to help them rid an albatross contract that helps complicate any moves due to luxury tax??
Hey Frederick!!!
Speaking of Rizzo, where do you think he lands? I seriously doubt he’s going back to the Cubs. I hear the Yankees, but is he really much better than Voit?
Now hearing the Toledo Mud Hens, Bad News Bears and the Kansas City Monarchs are also interested in Freddie Freeman.
You forgot that the Hiroshima Fighting Carp are preparing a bid
Braves should sign Freeman. I heard he is good.
eh… apparently there’s a new guy in the A for the next few years…
Why not both?
Personally, the Braves jumped the gun on Olsen. Freeman is the better player just older. The only positive that can come out of this is if they use the money they saved to fill other positions. Resign Soler and trade for Reynolds or Marte please.
I agree that Freeman is indisputably the better player, even just by the eye test, however, it really seems that Anthopoulos wants to turn the page on the Freeman era.
On the other hand, I would love to see a lineup featuring Acuna, Albies, Olson, and Freeman, but it seems pretty unrealistic right now.
Love me some Freddie, but his fans are just off the chart rose-colored glass types. Olson is a fair bit better.
I’ll dispute it. Olson had a 5.8 fWAR season last year to Freeman’s 4.8. Olson had a 4.7 fWAR in 2019 to Freeman’s 3.7. Freddie was obviously the better player in 2020, but that came in just 60 games.
Over those last three seasons combined, they’re effectively tied in value (11.7 to 11.6 fWAR). At worst, it’s a coin toss between which has been the better player the last few years.
Gonna go with AA on this one, champ. Time was of the essence and a deal for a real 1B had to get done.
Oh wow. In the case of two players of very similar values, the player who is 4.5 years younger, Matt Olson is the better pick. Olson is from Atlanta, but Freeman clearly has historical and sentimental value over Olson.
Valid points, but they don’t address Freeman’s value to the fans nor his presence in the clubhouse. I’m not saying moving on is a bad decision, though.
How can you say they jumped the gun when you don’t know what other offers Oakland were considering? If ATL misses out on Freddie and Matt, they’re screwed. Freddie obviously cared more about the almighty dollar than being a braves lifer so they pivoted.
Time was of the essence? It’s only Spring Training. Who cares if they go 0-whatever in this abbreviated ST. I know I don’t. I feel the way the Braves handled this negotiation with Freddie was in poor taste.
you mean the lobster AND the cracked crab?
You cannot say player A is undoubtedly the better fit when you ignore the acquisition cost associated with both
Olson cost ATL some significant talent+ still will make 1/3-1/2 of Freeman’s 2022 salary. Freeman costs just $$
Not taking a stance really, just saying the formula is more involved than just fWar and age…
It amazes me how people are quick to look at arbitrary #’s and quickly discount how much worth Freeman has provided throughout the years. Olsen has not done enough for me to automatically make me think he will even meet the production Freeman gave the Braves.
Time will tell!
@outlaw time was of the essence because Olsen would have been traded elsewhere. Not because we want to win ST games.
Like I said with Boston earlier, this could be leaked just to increase his coat to the Dodgers. While I’d love for Freeman to wear the Sox uniform, the more it costs the Dodgers, the Jays or whomever, the less they theoretically have down the road for the next available star. This is a new CBA and GM’s have found money like the five year old at the candy store. Sometimes, money spent today is regretted tomorrow.
The threshold is not that much higher for teams who were already pushing the limit.
it certainly is. Boston has I’ve read $20m more. it also I believe raises the other thresholds. Only the Dodgers and Padres went over last year so others over the first amount is I think 20%>. No biggie.
Does that coat come with two pairs of pants?
Sorry, couldn’t resist. 🙂
If Freeman isn’t going to be in Atlanta, I’d prefer to see him on the Red Sox. I’d 100% buy a Freeman BoSox jersey.
Not gonna happen. Chaim Bloom hasn’t made a single big free agent acquisition since becoming President of Baseball Operations. He prefers to use the smaller payroll and develop the farm. Red Sox are only driving up the price for Toronto.
Love you guys, but must you always post stuff from Heyman (without at least a disclaimer)?! The guy is such a shameless shill for Boras and other agents. ALWAYS puffing up the number of teams supposedly “pursuing” a player. He has essentially zero credibility.
Eric Hosmer must be feeling as wanted as a fart in church right now.
That must have been the pew I sat in the other day
I still think he ends up with the Dodgers.
I don’t think the Dodgers are even interested in Hosmer.
Oh really? What a breaking news…
Link goes to the wrong Luis Garcia
Just means the Stros have to trade that one to us. Done deal, that’s how this MLBTR stuff works. (I WISH!)
I am a Padres fan.
SD probably can’t afford to just sign Freeman without getting rid of Hosmer or Wil Myers. If they somehow could afford him, there is definitely room on the roster.
Freeman plays 1b. Hosmer plays DH/backs up 1b, primarily against right handed pitching. Hosmer’s 1b defense has gotten weirdly bad. And he hits far better against righties. Hosmer would probably be surly about this.
I heard Hosmer is fine with DH role
As he should be with the way he mans 1b nowadays
Yeah, maybe, but Hosmer probably wouldn’t feel great about getting benched vs. lefties. I thought he was accustomed to 150+ starts a year. Last year he had “only” 131 starts when SD didn’t have the DH, along with 20 PH times, so he probably wasn’t injured.
he’ll get benched vs lefties anyway
They can get rid of Myers easy.
No they can’t
No they can’t
==================================
It dpends on how you define “easy”. If I were the RS, or almost anyone, I’ll pay Myers entire $20M + $1M if they throw in Weathers or Hassell.
It’s 2 years at 20M per for Myers. Not just 1/20
I don’t have the prospect’s surplus value in front of me, but expecting any prospect, especially one not MLB ready/exposed, to produce 40M in future value feels like quite the risk
BeforeMcCourt: No, Wil Myers has one year, $21mm left on his contract. Maybe $20mm, but it is only one year, maybe $20mm with a $1mm buyout.
You’re dead wrong BeforeMcCourt! Myers only has 1 guaranteed year left on his deal! Then a club option for 2023 that comes with a $1m buyout.
How’s the last 3 years of that theory looking, seamaholic?
There is basically a catch-22 for the Padres in terms getting rid of the big contracts. It’s the way that they approach it that is making it impossible for them to get a deal done.
They always try to get “value” in return. For example, they tried to trade Myers + prospects to BOS for Mookie and they tried to trade Hosmer + Hassell and prospects to TX for Gallo. Those deals don’t work because they’re insisting on getting something back due to the inclusion of the prospects.
Basically it’s their reluctance to part with the big prospects without getting talent in exchange that holds everything back. If they just attached the prospects and asked for nothing back they could probably dump the contracts. The problem is they don’t want to trade Hassell/Campusano for nothing, but thats the situation they’re in based on these bad deals.
The Mookie/Myers and Gallo/Hosmer trades were NEVER going to happen. Made no sense for Boston/Texas.
Didn’t know Luis Garcia was traded to the Padres..
Nightengale is always wrong.
This could actually happen. Charlie (Freddie’s son) is a huge fan of Tatis Jr. Freddie may be pressured into signing with the Fathers (of collapses).
Just what the Padres need–another big money LH First Baseman…
Christopher Lloyd is flapping his wings right behind hosmer
I suppose this is possible. Maybe they have a team willing to take Hosmer and/or Myers. Myers # isn’t terrible and he still adds some value. You’d have to unload Hosmer to make this a reality.
This is purely to get the Dodgers to up their offer, which they won’t, nor should
I don’t think the braves as was rumoured even offered Freddie 5/150. AA doesn’t do that and probably set the table for a possible Olson trade long ago
Don’t think Freddie is getting the kind of numbers and term offers he thought he was going to get from everyone
I heard Atlanta’s offer was five years for $140 million.
5 yr with an AAV of 27 per.
Unless someone blows him away with money, this is down to the Dodgers and Jays. He’s Canadian and Californian and both he and his wife have shown a clear preference.
Like how Kershaw was signing with the Rangers cuz he’s from Dallas, lives 30 minutes from Globe Life Park and is friends with Chris Woodward?
BuT iT’s DiFfErEnT tHiS tImE !
Uh, the difference being that Kershaw also lives like 15-20 minutes from Dodger Stadium. The Barves were an option for Freeman until they pulled the trigger on the trade.
It’s kind of weird to say on a post about San Diego showing interest in him that his options are down to the Dodgers because he’s originally from California…
Freeman is from Orange County originally which is right in the middle of San Diego and Los Angeles. He’s likely going to go where he can get paid the most regardless of whether its an hour north of where he grew up or an hour south.
Or nowhere near there.
Fire Preller.
Red Sox over Padres in 2025
I’m a father too, but if anyone bases things solely on the simple wants of they’re kid is foolish. His son likes Tatis yes, but imo that’s no reason to leave “YOUR” team to be just another star on a Padres club. SMH
SPEND, AJ, SPEND!!!!!
What dumb and disinformational story about nothing team named The Fathers!
Well the Yankees are not trading for Hosmer. So I guess Freeman and Hosmer can split lst base/dh duties? I wish everyone In San Diego my absolute best in their pursuit of Freddy Freeman.
I’m pretty sure he’s already married.
AJ Preller out here making sure this team will be financially hamstrung well after he gets fired.
Oh this is great. All the best to Freddie and I hope the Braves retire his number someday and he goes to the Hall. But this is just too looney to not be entertained by
I don’t really think it’s too far-fetched. If Freddie goes to LA, the Dodgers are the best team in the West. If he goes to SD, same for them.
If Freeman goes to either, that may well be the WS favorite, assuming good health for all.
SD, with Freeman, has no shot against the LAD, imo.
You really think SD is 1 Freddie Freeman away from being a better team on paper than LA, knowing Tatis is missing half the year already?
Okay…
If Freeman gets injured…….
The Hosmer contract is the gift that keeps on giving. Everyone knowledgeable about baseball knew that signing Hosmer to that contract was a very bad idea…except the Padres. As I always say, it only takes one team to make the mistake.
There are probably 28 teams that have someone in the FO that does nothing but invent trades with Preller or whomever the Cincy GM is. All fans have a rotisserie BB mindset, hoping to get underrated players cheaply. But Preller and the Reds, those dreams can become a reality.
The signing of Hosmer signaled a major shift in their ability to sign free agents.
No it did not!
If the Padres are interested, Freeman must be injured or suffering a long-term illness or condition. Arthritis, glaucoma, motor bike crashes…
For those saying they can’t afford him….why not?
Seidler says there is no spending limit if it fits their “vision”.
I think everyone’s jealous cause we have an owner that’s putting all our revenue back on the field.
SD was like 4th in attendance last year…..in MLB.He’s learned if you spend and build an exciting team the fans show up and spend money…maybe Pittsburgh should try this strategy.
Mr. Padre, yeah everyone is jealous of your third place team.
Such BS. Padres are in on everyone. Don’t do much anymore but here they are. Ewwww! We are really interested in Freeman. Can’t give Hosmer away but we really want another big contract around our necks. Maybe Freddie can play shortstop?
Just like TB is interested in Freeman and everyone else but they rarely spend money for their maybe 10 loyal fans.
The Padres are interested in every player and want nothing to do with the contracts of Hosmer and Myers. Different year, same story. Which reminds me…the Padres are intersted in Trevor Story.
I rest my case.
I knew it and I called it!
Marlins now in the mix…Nats aren’t out of the question….
When a player hits the IL, does his missed salary still count against the CBT? If it doesn’t, then Tatis being out for 3 months takes $12M or so off the books which gives the Padres a little wiggle room.
Plus, earlier in the off season, all the talk was the Padres trading prospects for Olson, then trading another highly ranked prospect with Hosmer to clear his salary. With the Padres system not being what it used to be, trading say Campusano and someone in the 10-12 range in the farm system with Hosmer to clear his salary and signing Freeman, saves the Padres from trading away any of their other top prospects.
Might just be what Preller & Co. are trying to accomplish.
Nope. A players AAV is calculated on salary averaged over their whole contract, and IL time doesn’t factor in.
I’d just HATE it if Preller traded away Hassell, Abrams, or Campu, just like I hated the trade he made with Seattle (though different situation, though, since many of the 30 some minor leaguers Preller flushed from the Padres system in trades would have been rule 5 candidates anyways, i.e. use them or lose them). For example, I knew that Ty France was going to be good as gold.
However, I’m not going to scream if the trade is Freeman in 2022 for one of those prospects, because prospects are suspects until they prove it on a MLB ball field (actually, they need to prove it for about two years). Now, of course, they could acquire a Freeman, who could also pull a “Hosmer” (just an example; Hosmer’s 2017 resume was in now way equal to Freeman’s). Those are the risks. I’m not happy with the idea of trading away talent to lose Hosmer, because talent is too hard to find, and while Campu is a bit suspect (i.e. still a young catching prospect, he has sort of hit a ceiling, but 2020-2021 were lousy years to develop as a prospect, too), Abrams and Hassell look like solid gold bets.
Me, I’d like to keep the Padres top prospects and watch them explode onto the team like Tatis … if it happens. But, I’m not responsible for creating a Padre roster than can beat 29 other pretty good major league teams in 2022..
3 team trade
Angels get- Kim Meyers
Cubs -J Upton
Padres- nothing
Together Ana and Padres compensate CHC, Angels moreso, Pads get outta 29 mill cheaply this way for 22. Angels get a Ss and OF upgrade for no extra $$. Cubs stack the farm more
SD Inks Freeman
Trade Hosmer next offseason when the 22 becomes 13 mill w prospects
Farm be damned, the ditch has already been dug let’s just bury the bodies now
they can buy a ticket and sit in the stands but can’t play on the field. That’s what I dont understand. So the virus only will attack you if your playing but not as a fan. Ok get it
I’m sure it will work out for Freddie, but options keep disappearing. Yankees, covered with Rizzo. Jays, covered with Chapman. I’m not convinced the Freeman camp understood how quickly everything was going to need to move in this compressed preseason.