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Padres, Mets Reportedly Stalled On Hosmer Trade Talks

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4:57PM: Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that talks may have stalled entirely after the two sides “hit a snag” in negotiations.  Sherman is even more blunt, saying the proposed trade “is not going to happen.”

8:50 AM: A potential deal between the two sides would be a little more complex than initially presumed. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter), the Padres would unsurprisingly need to eat a fair amount of the money owed to Hosmer in order to make this deal work. Specifically, the Padres would cover roughly $30MM or more of Hosmer’s deal, bringing Hosmer’s per annum down to $6-7MM per year, per Sherman.

The Mets would also get reliever Emilio Pagan in the deal. Pagan has at times looked like a premier bullpen arm during his five seasons in the bigs with the Mariners, Rays, A’s, and Padres. The 30-year-old is an option to close games if he stays in San Diego, whereas in New York he would slot into a fairly deep collection of right-handed setup arms that includes Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, Miguel Castro, Trevor May, and Seth Lugo.

7:55 AM: The Mets have spent the offseason pushing full-bore towards fielding a competitive squad, but the fragility of an offseason win became clear yesterday with the news of ace Jacob deGrom being shut down for the next four weeks. The panic alarm has sounded, but the Mets are not without solutions.

In fact, they just so happen to have been in conversation with the Padres for the past couple of weeks about different trade scenarios, at least one of which could bring another arm to New York to help plug the leak. Per The Athletic’s Dennis Lin, Ken Rosenthal, and others, a potential deal could center around Eric Hosmer and Chris Paddack heading to the Mets, while Dominic Smith would go to San Diego.

The Padres have been trying to move off of Hosmer’s money for quite some time now, and the freewheeling Mets may now have a big enough need in the rotation to consider taking him back. There’s some urgency for the Padres here, as Hosmer’s partial no-trade clause turns into full 10-and-5 rights at the end of this season. Of course, if he is traded, Hosmer’s contract has a clause that says he cannot be traded twice without his consent, so he will essentially get his no-trade clause by the end of the 2022 campaign regardless for whom he plays.

With $59MM over four years left on his deal, Hosmer does not have positive trade value – not after fWAR totals of 0.0, 0.9, -0.3, and -0.1 over the past four seasons. Entering his age-32 season, one doesn’t expect Hosmer to flourish overnight. Furthermore, the Mets absolutely have no need for him, not with Pete Alonso on the roster.

Acquiring Hosmer would mean pushing the Mets deeper into luxury tax territory with a payroll nearing $300MM, notes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Mets might be willing to take him if they can reinforce their rotation at the same time, however.

Enter Paddack. The 26-year-old has three years of team control remaining and significant upside. He’s far from a sure thing, however. His numbers declined for the third consecutive season last year when he finished with a 5.07 ERA across 108 1/3 innings. A slightly torn UCL might be the cause of the decline, but that’s not necessarily a situation that has totally resolved itself. Paddack would, therefore, be an option to slide into deGrom’s rotation spot, but he’s far from a panacea for the Mets’ long-term concerns.

In the short term, he might not even be an upgrade over Tylor Megill, the presumptive fifth starter in deGrom’s absence. Megill posted a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP over 18 starts covering 89 2/3 innings in 2021 – his first taste of big league action. The Mets could certainly begin the season with Megill in the rotation and see how things go from there.

For the Padres part, their motivation would mostly be to shed Hosmer’s contract. They have enough rotation depth, theoretically, to weather the loss of Paddack, and in Smith, they’d be getting back a comparable bat that’s cheaper, more versatile, and with more theoretical upside than Hosmer. He’s also under team control for two more seasons beyond 2022, though those seasons aren’t guaranteed, should he continue to struggle at the dish.

For the first part of his career, the story on Smith was that he needed at-bats, but his natural position of first base was spoken for, so his ceiling was no more than that of a bit player. Then the designated hitter came to the NL in 2020, Smith starting taking flyballs in left field, and the offensive promise came to fruition with a .316/.377/.616 line over 199 plate appearances during the shortened campaign.

He again saw fairly stable playing time in 2021, but the numbers cratered to an 86 wRC+ by way of a  .244/.304/.363 line across  494 plate appearances , more than doubling his previous career-high in that regard. The Padres do need a left fielder, and Smith could step right in at first base were this deal to go down. Still, for San Diego, this deal is mostly about moving off of Hosmer. There are options out there for left field – including former Met Michael Conforto – but Smith would certainly be worth rostering if acquiring him meant removing Hosmer from the payroll.

Padres Open To Trading From Rotation, Catching Depth

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With a little over a week until Opening Day, the Padres still have a highly uncertain outfield mix. Michael Conforto and Brett Gardner remain available in free agency, but the Friars are an estimated $6MM shy of the $230MM base luxury tax threshold and are reportedly reluctant to exceed that figure.

If they’re not content with their internal outfield options, a trade may be the better way for the front office to go. Dennis Lin of the Athletic reports the Padres are willing to entertain offers on some of their catchers or starting pitchers. Dealing from their depth in either area wouldn’t necessarily mean the Padres bring back a big league caliber outfielder in return, but it seems the front office is at least open to exploring those possibilities.

Neither development comes as a surprise. During the lockout, MLBTR noted the potential for San Diego to entertain trades from both the catching group and rotation depth. The Padres currently have four catchers on the 40-man roster, all of whom have reasonable claims to a spot on the MLB club.

Austin Nola is the presumptive starter. Luis Campusano is a top prospect who doesn’t have much more to prove in the minors after hitting .295/.365/.541 in Triple-A. Víctor Caratini is coming off a rough season, but he’s had success in the past and works well with Yu Darvish. Jorge Alfaro would appear to be fourth on the depth chart, but San Diego acquired him from the Marlins and he can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning the Padres need to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment. The Friars presumably won’t carry all four on the Opening Day roster, even with rosters expanded from 26 to 28 players in the early going, so it’s natural they’d be open to dealing from that group.

On the pitching side of the equation, San Diego is set to open the year with a starting group of Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger and Nick Martínez. That wouldn’t leave spots for any of Chris Paddack, Reiss Knehr or former top prospects Ryan Weathers and MacKenzie Gore. All four of those pitchers have options remaining, and the Friars could certainly opt to stockpile depth after seeing a series of rotation injuries contribute to a second-half collapse last year. Lin doesn’t specify any names whom the Padres are particularly inclined to move, to be clear. Yet as with the catching surplus, there may at least be enough depth for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller to consider a move — particularly if one of those arms can bring back MLB-ready outfield help.

Trent Grisham is locked in as the center fielder, with Will Myers set to handle right field on most days. San Diego saw Tommy Pham depart in free agency, leaving Jurickson Profar and the newly-acquired Matt Beaty among the favorites for playing time in left. That’s not a great group of corner players for a hopeful contender, and the Pads have shopped both Myers and first baseman Eric Hosmer throughout the offseason. Lin writes they’re still exploring possible Hosmer deals, although moving much of the remaining four years and $59MM on his deal has proven too tough a task so far. It’d probably be easier to move Myers, but that’d just further thin the corner outfield group.

Aside from Myers, Profar, Beaty and Grisham, the Padres don’t really have outfield options on the 40-man roster. Lin writes that manager Bob Melvin has already ruled out the possibility of moving second baseman Jake Cronenworth off the position, something the organization considered but never tried last offseason. Alfaro has some experience in left field but shouldn’t be more than an emergency option there. Trayce Thompson and Nomar Mazara are in camp as non-roster invitees and could both get big league looks, but neither is necessarily an upgrade over Profar and Beaty.

More interesting than the possibility of any of those veterans getting a spot is the chance for top prospect CJ Abrams to break camp with the club. A consensus top 15 prospect, Abrams only has 42 games of Double-A experience. He impressed there last year, hitting .296/.363/.420 with a pair of home runs and 13 stolen bases, but his season was cut short when he fractured his left tibia in late June. That kept him from seeing his first Triple-A action.

Nevertheless, both Lin and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune have written this week the organization is considering carrying the 21-year-old on the MLB roster. That’s certainly not a given, as both Lin and Acee hear that some with the Padres believe he’d benefit from more time in the minors. Not only does he have limited experience against high level pitching, Abrams has never played a professional inning outside of the middle infield.

Given his athleticism — evaluators credit him with top-of-the-scale speed — there’s a belief he could handle all three outfield spots. Melvin acknowledged this afternoon he might give Abrams some consideration behind Grisham in center field (Acee link). Keeping him in the majors would allow San Diego some cover behind Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim in the middle infield while Fernando Tatís Jr. is on the injured list. Yet there’d certainly be risk in putting Abrams into a major league outfield right out of the gate, even in a utility capacity, and there’s an argument to be made for the Friars starting him at Triple-A El Paso. It’ll be known soon enough what route Preller, Melvin and the rest of the San Diego brass choose to take with the Opening Day roster.

Padres Reportedly Interested In Freddie Freeman

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Earlier this morning, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that the Red Sox had jumped into the bidding on star first baseman Freddie Freeman, and just hours later, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that the Padres, too, are looking into the possibility of signing Freeman.

The level of sincerity behind the Padres’ apparent interest isn’t clear. On the one hand, Freeman would unequivocally deepen their roster and bolster their lineup in a major way. On the other, the Padres already have a pricey first baseman, Eric Hosmer, whom they’ve been trying to trade in an effort to escape the remaining four years and $59MM on his contract. There’s also the fact that one of Freeman’s reported suitors, the Dodgers, just so happen to be a division rival for the Padres. Making an effort to drive up the price wouldn’t be out of the question.

That said, it’s worth taking a peak at just how a potential Freeman signing would impact the Padres, both in 2022 and in the long-term. The impact on the actual 2022 payroll would depend on contract structuring, but even a backloaded deal would boost the Padres’ currently $200MM payroll substantially.

Looking beyond the current season, the contracts of Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Fernando Tatis Jr., Drew Pomeranz, Ha-Seong Kim, Nick Martinez and Luis Garcia total about $114MM in guaranteed money. That doesn’t include player options for Jurickson Profar and Robert Suarez, which could be exercised — nor does it include arbitration raises to the likes of Dinelson Lamet, Austin Adams, Tim Hill, Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. Factoring in all of that, a Freeman deal could take reasonable 2023 payroll projections north of $160MM.

The broader concern would be the luxury-tax obligations associated with a Freeman deal. If he is indeed seeking something in the vicinity of $30MM annually, that’d send the Padres back into luxury-tax territory for what would be a second straight season. The Padres currently have about $217MM in luxury obligations, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, and there’s no getting around the huge CBT hit associated with any potential Freeman deal.

In fact, even if the Padres were able to move the entirety of Hosmer’s contract — which seems unlikely without at least taking some money back on in return — the subtraction of that $18MM luxury hit would only narrowly drop the Padres below $200MM in total. In other words, even if San Diego somehow traded all of Hosmer’s deal and replaced him with Freeman, the new contract would still push the Padres right back up against CBT precipice.

It’d be a surprise to see San Diego draw up a five- or six-year offer at top-of-the-market dollars to bring in Freeman when they’re still trying to unload Hosmer’s contract, but Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is never one to shy away from an unexpected move.

Padres Notes: Hosmer, Myers, Suzuki, Cruz, Montesino

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Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers have been regulars in trade rumors for months, and that status hasn’t changed now that the lockout is over.  The Padres have been “aggressively shopping” both players in trade talks, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, in an effort to clear some salary and roster space, plus create some more flexibility under the competitive balance tax.

Even with the tax threshold rising to $230MM this season, the Padres are already projected for a luxury tax number just shy of $218MM (as per Roster Resource).  Since the Padres did exceed the CBT last season, they’d have to pay the larger “two-timer” penalty for crossing the threshold in consecutive years, so all things considered, the club would surely prefer to avoid a second tax overage if at all possible.

Getting either Hosmer or Myers off the books would help greatly in this regard.  Since a player’s tax number is determined by the average annual value over the life of his contract, Hosmer’s tax number is $18MM per season and Myers is $13.83MM, though both players are set to earn more in actual dollars.  Myers is owed $20MM in 2022 and there is a $20MM club option on his services for 2023 with a $1MM buyout, while Hosmer is owed a total of $59MM over the 2022-25 seasons.

These pricey contracts also don’t hold a ton of appeal to other teams, which is why San Diego has explored any number of scenarios to try and swing a deal.  The Padres have looked to try and attach a prospect (Luis Campusano and Robert Hassell were mentioned) to Hosmer in talks with the Rangers and Cubs last summer, as some kind of sweetener is likely necessary to move the first baseman.  Beyond the $59MM, Hosmer has also posted essentially replacement-level production (0.6 fWAR) since the start of the 2018 season.  Myers has been similarly inconsistent over that same timeframe but his 5.5 fWAR has clearly marked him as the more productive of the two.  If Myers may be the easier trade candidate, however, the Padres’ needs in the outfield would only be increased if Myers was suddenly no longer around.

This isn’t to say that San Diego isn’t already eyeing replacements.  As Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune puts it via Twitter, the Padres’ “Plan A” would seem to be a scenario where the club signs Seiya Suzuki and Nelson Cruz, while moving one of Hosmer or Myers.  Several other teams have been linked to both Suzuki and Cruz, though in Cruz’s case, recent reports have indicated the Padres could be a finalist for the veteran slugger.  Even with one of Hosmer or Myers dealt, plans to add two prominent free agent bats could seem to indicate that the Friars are willing to spend at least in the range of that $230MM tax threshold.

In other team news, first base/outfield prospect Daniel Montesino will miss the 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.  Montesino signed for a $1MM bonus during the 2020-21 international signing period, and posted a big .934 OPS over 243 plate appearances for the Padres’ Dominican Summer League squad last year.  MLB Pipeline (24th) and Baseball America (29th) each listed Montesino within their rankings of San Diego’s top 30 prospects.

AL Notes: Rangers, Hosmer, Royals, Wells

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The Padres and Rangers discussed first baseman Eric Hosmer in trade talks last summer, as part of broader pre-deadline negotiations that also reportedly involved Padres prospect Robert Hassell and then-Rangers slugger Joey Gallo.  It isn’t any secret that San Diego has been trying to get Hosmer’s contract off the books, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that Texas still wanted the Padres to cover the majority of the salary owed to Hosmer ($59MM from 2022-25).  The exact numbers involved in the proposed trade isn’t known, and obviously the inclusion of Gallo (paid $6.2MM last season and projected to earn $10.2MM in 2022) was a major factor in the financial elements of any deal.

Since Gallo ended up being traded to the Yankees at the deadline, it remains to be seen if the Padres could revisit a more streamlined version of a Hosmer trade with the Rangers once the lockout is over, with Hassell perhaps included as a sweetener to convince Texas to absorb a larger chunk of Hosmer’s salary.  Of course, the equation has now changed quite a bit for a Rangers team that has already added Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray in a pre-lockout spending spree.  While the Rangers still have payroll space, they might prefer to spend on a player who can more readily help them contend in 2022.  Hosmer has been roughly a league-average hitter over his last four seasons, and Texas already has a left-handed hitting first baseman in Nathanial Lowe who might be a better candidate to out-perform Hosmer at the plate (and at a fraction of Hosmer’s price tag).

More from the American League…

  • The Royals used a bumper crop of homegrown talent to capture the 2015 World Series, and are now trying to reload with a new wave of minor leaguers.  General manager J.J. Picollo tells The Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy that “I feel like this group is just a tad more deep” than the core of the 2014-15 pennant-winning rosters, and in particular more depth when it comes to starting pitching.  Former first-round picks Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, and Daniel Lynch have already cracked the majors, and Picollo cited even two more waves of younger arms that could be coming next.  All of this depth could manifest itself as cornerstone pieces of the next K.C. rotation, or perhaps as trade chips — as Worthy notes, the Royals dealt several notable pitching prospects while building their last championship team.
  • With Gary Sanchez’s future a constant topic of discussion in the Bronx, many Yankees fans see Austin Wells as a potential Sanchez replacement behind the plate as early as the 2023 season.  However, the proverbial “catcher of the future” might not necessarily remain as a catcher, according to Yankees VP of player development Kevin Reese.  “Depending on where some of our other guys are, there might be an opportunity to get him some reps (at other positions)….Then we might have to get a little bit creative to keep his bat in the lineup.  But none of that is a concern about his catching,” Reese told The New York Daily News’ Kristie Ackert.  Wells has been seen as a potential candidate to move to first base or a corner outfield spot even before the Yankees drafted him 28th overall in 2020, and while one AL scout feels a position change will still happen, he credited Wells for improving his throwing arm and his framing.  Wherever he ends up on the diamond, Wells has shown signs that his bat will play at any position — Wells batted .264/.390/.476 with 16 homers over 469 plate appearances in his first pro season (at the A-ball and high-A levels), and then turned heads with a big performance in Arizona Fall League action.

Padres Among Teams Interested In Matt Olson

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Whenever transactions are again permitted to take place, A’s first baseman Matt Olson is among the most prominent names who’ll be discussed on the trade market. The 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glover has already been linked to the Yankees, Rangers and Braves, among others, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic suggests in his latest mailbag column that the Padres figure to be “in the mix” on Olson as well. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has already at least touched base with the Oakland front office as part of a broader sweep of exploratory trade talks throughout the league, per Lin.

Interest notwithstanding, the Padres seem like a long shot to actually pull off a deal involving Olson for myriad reasons. San Diego already has Eric Hosmer installed at first base and signed for another four seasons at a total of $59MM. The Friars have reportedly pursued various trade scenarios involving Hosmer in an attempt to create payroll flexibility and reduce their luxury-tax ledger, but those efforts have unsurprisingly come up short.

Hosmer’s eight-year, $144MM deal with the Padres was widely panned from the start, and the first baseman’s tepid .264/.323/.415 batting line (99 wRC+) since signing hasn’t made the final four years of the contract any more appealing (though it should be noted that the contract is frontloaded, with Hosmer earning $20MM in 2022 and $13MM annually from 2023-25).

The universal designated hitter is viewed as something of a foregone conclusion by now, so one can imagine a scenario where Hosmer spends more time at DH and Olson plays first base. However, that’d still move the Padres’ payroll north by a good margin. Olson is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM in 2022 before commanding one more raise in his final arbitration season in 2023. San Diego already has about $199MM on the books for the 2022 season, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, in addition to about $215MM worth of luxury-tax obligations. The Padres narrowly exceeded the luxury tax in 2021, but it’s unclear whether they’d be willing to do so again in 2022 — particularly if it’s by a larger margin. Lin notes that owner Peter Seidler has “steadfastly declined” to discuss payroll and luxury tax to this point.

That $215MM figure is a substantial factor in the Padres’ reported efforts to move Hosmer and/or right fielder Wil Myers (who’s owed $21MM in the final season of a six-year, $83MM extension himself). Perhaps if the Padres could find a way to shed one or both salaries, the subsequent luxury breathing room could then be make a potential Olson acquisition more feasible. That, however, would require time to be on the Padres’ side — which is not the case. Post-lockout transactions are expected to be frenetic, and it doesn’t figure to be easy for Preller & Co. to find a trade involving Hosmer or Myers. The San Diego front office has been investigating trades involving the pair for at least the past year, after all — and longer than that with regard to Myers. If an Olson acquisition is predicated on moving Hosmer and/or Myers, it’s hard to imagine there’d be time to complete that deal then circle back to the A’s.

Some might suggest that the Padres simply try to send Hosmer back to Oakland as part of a deal, offering better prospects in return to push a deal across the finish line. That scenario appears decidedly unlikely, though. The cost on Olson figures to be sky-high in the first place, and the driving factor behind Oakland’s ostensibly looming sell-off is a desire to pare payroll. Taking on Hosmer’s deal runs counter to that. Lin speculates that the Padres could try to engineer a three-team swap that places Hosmer with a third team and Olson in San Diego, but that’s obviously an even more ambitious undertaking than simply finding a taker for Olson in a more straightforward two-team deal.

One wild card in all of this is the uncertainty surrounding the status of the luxury tax/competitive balance tax itself. The tax thresholds are a key talking point in collective bargaining talks between the league and the Players Association. The MLBPA is seeking major increases to the tax thresholds, beginning with a jump all the way to $245MM this coming season and cresting with a $273MM threshold in 2026. The league, meanwhile, has only been willing to offer far more marginal increases: $214MM in 2022-23 and incremental increases up to $222MM in 2026. MLB is also seeking to greatly increase the penalties for crossing the threshold, which the MLBPA considers a nonstarter.

[Related: Latest Collective Bargaining Positions For MLB, MLBPA]

It’s possible that whatever middle ground is reached will come with enough of an uptick in the first threshold that the Padres could technically squeeze Olson into the fray without needing to pay the tax. However, the Padres are also facing needs elsewhere on the roster — namely in one corner outfield spot. If the hope is to add an outfielder and/or deepen the pitching staff or bench at all, then San Diego would be looking at shoehorning more than just Olson’s salary into the puzzle.

All of that is based on a theoretical stance that Padres ownership is deterred by the luxury tax alone, but we can’t know that for certain. Last year’s bottom-line payroll of nearly $174MM shattered the former franchise-record payroll by more than $60MM. The current $199MM projection further trounces that number, and adding Olson and any others to the mix would bring the Padres well north of $200MM in actual 2022 salaries (and quite a bit higher in terms of AAV-based luxury calculations). It would require an unprecedented level of spending for the Padres, and we can’t know at what point ownership will simply be uncomfortable with further expenditures. It’s possible they’ve already reached that juncture.

To sum up a bit, there’s good reason to expect the Padres will indeed try to make something happen on the Olson front. Preller has shown time and again that he’ll always explore creative options when marquee talents are available. San Diego hired manager Bob Melvin away from the A’s earlier this offseason, and Melvin would surely love to have his former franchise first baseman follow him down I-5. If the Padres were to somehow move Hosmer, they’d have an opening at first base. It all makes sense on paper, and various permutations of Olson-to-San Diego deals or three-team blockbusters involving Olson, Hosmer, Myers and top prospects make for fun hypotheticals with Major League transactions approaching a three-month standstill.

At the end of the day, however, there are so many moving parts involved even in these theoretical exercises that it’s hard to see the Padres finding a way to make the pieces work. Still, even a tangential Padres involvement in the Olson market is of some note. Their lurking presence could carry implications on the asking price Oakland can put forth to other clubs, and if trade talks with other suitors drag on long enough post-lockout, it’d only give the Padres more time to pull off their latest trade-market stunner.

Padres Notes: Payroll, Campusano, Prospects

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The Padres were relatively quiet during the pre-lockout portion of the offseason, at least by A.J. Preller’s usual aggressive standards.  The club’s trade of Adam Frazier to the Mariners stands as San Diego’s biggest move of the winter, and that deal was surely motivated at least in part by the $7.2MM Frazier is projected to earn in salary arbitration.

Though the next collective bargaining agreement could change the luxury tax rules, for now the Padres’ hefty salary commitments (roughly $214.7MM for 2022, as per Roster Resource) continues to influence the front office’s activities.  The Padres already exceeded the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021, and would face a repeater penalty of a 30% surcharge on the overage if they surpassed whatever the threshold is in 2022.  It isn’t clear what San Diego’s salary ceiling might actually be, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (multiple links) notes that another “major hike” would require owner Peter Seidler to get a green light from the franchise’s minority owners.

As such, the Padres’ spending will probably be limited to some extent, as Lin has “a hard time seeing the Padres taking on another contract approaching nine figures” while the contracts of Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers are still on San Diego’s payroll.  Both Hosmer and Myers have been mentioned in trade rumors for well over a year, as the Friars have looked for creative ways of unloading either player’s hefty salary.  Hosmer is the more expensive of the duo, owed $59MM through the 2025 season while Myers is owed $21MM in 2022 ($20MM in salary and a $1MM buyout of a $20MM club option for 2023).

As Lin simply puts it, “there are a lot of moving parts to this offseason.”  Getting at least one of Hosmer or Myers off the books could unlock a lot of possibilities for the Padres, who have already been linked to such notable free agents as Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant.  While this interest could have just been due diligence, it does indicate that San Diego is at least checking in to see what it would to add another pricey, top-tier name to the roster.

There has been much speculation that the Padres could try to trade Hosmer or Myers by including a top prospect in the deal, as a rebuilding team with payroll space might be willing to eat some salary in order to essentially buy a blue chip minor leaguer.  The Padres discussed Hosmer with the Rangers and Cubs at the trade deadline, with Robert Hassell III reportedly part of the negotiations with Texas, and Lin writes that catching prospect Luis Campusano was part of the Hosmer talks with Chicago.

The catch of such a trade, however, is that while the Padres would be lightening their salary load, they would also be losing a controllable young player that is all the more valuable to a team with such a luxury tax burden.  The club has already dipped into its prospect depth for other trades, to the point that Lin reports that rival teams now focus their asks only on San Diego’s top minor leaguers, with Hassell and CJ Abrams receiving most of the attention.  With this in mind, Lin is doubtful if the Padres would deal any of their best prospects, or the likes of Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth on the MLB roster.

Cubs, Padres Discussed Eric Hosmer Trade Last Summer

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The Padres and Cubs were in talks last summer about a trade that would have sent first baseman Eric Hosmer “and a highly regarded prospect” to Chicago, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports.  The return on the Cubs’ end wasn’t mentioned, yet it likely could have been pretty minimal (i.e. a low-level prospect or a player to be named later), since the chief goal of the trade for San Diego would have been to get Hosmer’s contract off the books.  However, since Anthony Rizzo also reportedly on the Padres’ trade radar, it is possible the two teams might have been discussing a swap of first basemen.

Hosmer was known to be available prior to the trade deadline, as the Padres were exploring ways to both lessen their luxury tax burdens in 2021 and in the future, and also create payroll space for some bigger-ticket additions.  As it turned out, San Diego didn’t find a taker for Hosmer, and they also fell short of landing such targets as Rizzo, Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios prior to the deadline.  While the Padres did acquire the likes of Adam Frazier and Daniel Hudson, that wasn’t enough to hold off a late-season collapse, as the Friars plummeted to a 79-83 record.

As well, the Padres also ended up exceeding the luxury tax threshold for the first time in club history.  While final figures haven’t yet been released (and estimates from both Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource actually had the Padres falling a bit short of the tax line), the expectation is that San Diego’s Competitive Balance Tax number did indeed top the $210MM mark.  The penalty for a first-time payor is only a 20 percent surcharge on the overage, so since the Padres didn’t exceed the threshold by too much, their financial cost will be quite minimal.  For instance, if they exceeded the CBT line by $2MM, the team would have a $400K tax bill.

Since the Padres are already projected to sit very close to the $210MM mark for their 2022 expenditures, a further penalty could be difficult to avoid, with the obvious caveat that the CBT system could be altered under the new collective bargaining agreement.  In the short term, however, exceeding the luxury tax line has already caused some difficulties for the Padres’ offseason business.  They would have to give up two 2022 draft picks (their second-highest and fifth-highest selections) and $1MM of international draft pool money in order to sign a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, and San Diego has already reportedly shown interest in one such QO free agent in Nick Castellanos.

Assuming some form of the luxury tax continues to exist in the next CBA, even at a much higher threshold, the Padres would probably prefer to rid themselves of Hosmer’s contract just to lessen their chances of a repeater penalty.  Hosmer has a tax number of $18MM per season (the average annual value of his eight-year, $144MM deal), even though his actual salary figures will drop on the back end of his deal.  Hosmer has $59MM owed to him through the 2025 campaign, breaking down as $20MM in 2022, and then $13MM salaries in each of the 2023-25 seasons.

This contract wouldn’t be a problem if Hosmer was still hitting, and yet the veteran has batted only .264/.323/.415 (99 wRC+, 102 OPS+) over his four seasons in San Diego.  Other than a strong performance over 156 plate appearances in the shortened 2020 season, Hosmer has been barely a replacement-level player with the Padres, and he may not even be a regular starting option going forward considering that his playing time was reduced amidst his struggles.

The Cubs were primarily focused on selling back in July, unloading such veteran talents as Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Craig Kimbrel, Joc Pederson, and others.  Plus, the Cubs got a jump on the salary cuts almost a year ago in another major deal with the Padres, as Yu Darvish was dealt to San Diego.  All of these moves greatly reduced Chicago’s future salary commitments, and yet the recent acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley indicate that the Cubs aren’t planning a full rebuild.  Despite Hosmer’s lack of recent production, the Cubs could see him as a change-of-scenery candidate, or possibly as a left-handed complement to Frank Schwindel for first base (and maybe DH) duties.

The real prize for Chicago would still be whatever prospect or prospects the Padres were to include in a Hosmer trade.  While San Diego still has a strong farm system, their minor league depth has been sapped to some extent due to other deals, and some prospects that have now graduated to larger roles on the big league roster.  In talks with the Rangers about a trade involving Hosmer and Joey Gallo last July, Padres outfield prospect Robert Hassell III was reportedly floated as a candidate to change teams, though it isn’t known if the Cubs would also be targeting Hassell.

It is worth noting that Hosmer himself also has some leverage in the form of a ten-team no-trade clause.  The Cubs weren’t one of the ten teams on Hosmer’s 2021 list, and yet since he can change that list every year, he could very well adjust his no-trade protection to include the Cubs, Rangers, or any other club Hosmer suspects could be a potential trade partner.  This doesn’t mean that Hosmer wouldn’t necessarily welcome a move away from the Padres, but he would at least give himself some measure of control over his future.  Hosmer also gains full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player following the 2022 season, so this is the last year for the Padres to move Hosmer even somewhat freely.

Padres Reportedly Hoping To Include Eric Hosmer In Potential Joey Gallo Trade

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It’s no secret the Padres have been interested in Rangers star Joey Gallo for at least the past few weeks. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News sheds some light on the teams’ conversations, reporting that San Diego has inquired about Texas’ willingness to acquire Eric Hosmer as part of the deal. If Texas were willing to take on some of Hosmer’s contract, the Friars could potentially make top outfield prospect Robert Hassell III available, according to Grant.

Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic reported earlier this week that the Padres were discussing potential Hosmer trades. The goal, of course, would be to clear some of the first baseman’s remaining contract from the books. Hosmer signed an eight-year, $144MM deal during the 2017-18 offseason. He’s playing this season on a $20MM salary (of which around $7.2MM remains through the end of the year), and he’ll make the same amount next season. He’ll make $13MM each season from 2023-25, unless he triggers an opt-out clause after the 2022 campaign.

Rosenthal and Lin reported that San Diego currently sits a couple million dollars north of the $210MM luxury tax threshold. While ownership is reportedly willing to exceed that mark, the Padres have also explored ways to duck back underneath, with a potential Hosmer deal part of that equation.

Unsurprisingly, Grant writes that the Friars would have to include some amount of cash to facilitate a swap involving Hosmer and Gallo. Hosmer’s hitting an average .265/.329/.378 through 363 plate appearances this season, hardly enough to hold much appeal to other teams given his significant price tag.

The Rangers’ long-term books are relatively open, which could make Texas more receptive to taking on some of Hosmer’s contract in order to add one of the game’s most dynamic prospects to the farm system. Hassell was the eighth overall pick in last year’s draft, and he’s hitting .307/.403/.455 across 325 plate appearances in Low-A this season. Baseball America ranked the 19-year-old the game’s #50 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update.

Of course, doing so would require parting with Gallo, who is hitting a fantastic .223/.379/.490 with 25 home runs through 388 trips to the plate this year. With Gallo only controllable through 2022 and Texas looking unlikely to contend as soon as next season, he’s a sensible trade candidate. It doesn’t seem a lock he’ll be moved, as Texas has attempted to broker an extension with the slugger. However, Grant writes the sides have apparently “made little in the way of progress” on a long-term deal in recent days.

Failure to work out an extension wouldn’t make a Gallo trade a foregone conclusion, but it would make a deal seem likely. In addition to the Padres, the Yankees and Blue Jays have previously been tied to Gallo, and Grant adds that the Braves have “inquired” about his availability as well.

Gallo’s athletic enough to handle the outfield or first base, broadening his appeal to potential suitors. If a deal involving Hosmer, cash and prospects sent Gallo to San Diego, the two-time All-Star would likely step in as the Friars regular first baseman. Atlanta already has franchise icon Freddie Freeman entrenched at first and is surely looking at Gallo as a potential outfield option.

Padres Discussing Eric Hosmer Trades

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TODAY: Hosmer’s contract had a full no-trade clause for the 2018-20 seasons, but he now has only partial protection.  Hosmer has a 10-team no-trade clause, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports, adding another difficulty to the Padres’ attempt to deal him.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the 10 teams on Hosmer’s list are the Athletics, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Giants, Indians, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, and Tigers.  Hosmer also automatically gains full no-trade protection following the 2022 season due to 10-and-5 rights.

JULY 26: Eric Hosmer “has surfaced in recent trade discussions,” according to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The motivation for such discussions seems to be at least partly connected to the Padres’ luxury tax situation, as Rosenthal notes,”The most recent calculation, provided by MLB around the All-Star break, has the Padres over the CBT threshold by roughly $2 million.”  On a related note, the Padres had the Pirates pick up much of the tab for recent acquisition Adam Frazier.

After going 71-91 in the 2017 season, the Padres signed Hosmer to a huge eight-year, $144MM deal, sending a signal they were ready to compete. Since that time, the Padres have only gotten more aggressive, handing out even bigger contracts to Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., along with a number of high profile trades for marquee names such as Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. This has succeeded at pushing the Friars into contention. They got as far as the NLCS in 2020 and currently hold down a wild card spot in 2021. Hosmer’s contribution to the club, however, has been mercurial. In 2018 and 2019, his wRC+ tallies were 95 and 91, producing negative fWAR numbers in the process. The shortened 2020 season seemed to be a bounceback, with a wRC+ of 127 and an fWAR of 0.9. But 2021 has seen him trail off again, with his wRC+ down to 96 and his fWAR in negative territory again.  Hosmer’s contract still has four years remaining on it after 2021.

It’s unclear what the next collective bargaining agreement will look like, but the current one has a base tax threshold of $210MM for 2021.  As a potential first-time payor, the 20% tax on the overage seems like it should be a very mild deterrent.  For example, a team spending $225MM would incur a $3MM penalty.  So going over the base tax threshold in 2021 shouldn’t necessarily be a big concern, especially if the thresholds go up significantly in the next CBA.  One reason to attempt to avoid becoming a tax payor, at least in the current CBA: a CBT payor signing a free agent who turned down a qualifying offer forfeits its second and fifth-highest available draft picks and has its international bonus pool reduced by $1MM – as opposed to losing their second-highest pick and $500K of the international pool if they’re not a payor.  In other words, if the Padres exceed $210MM this year and the current draft pick compensation rules remain in place, then the club will face a slightly worse penalty if they sign a major free agent who turned down a qualifying offer.

Although Rosenthal adds that the team could conceivably increase their CBT figure “for the right acquisition,” they seem to also be considering the alternate route of ducking back beneath the line by season’s end. Moving Hosmer’s deal, with its $18MM AAV, would get the team below the line and potentially leave room for further additions. Since the team seemingly needs to pick a side and commit to it, “it could help explain why Preller continues to discuss a seemingly endless array of scenarios — including potential trades involving Hosmer,” according to Rosenthal.

There’s no indication that any deal is imminent, nor are any trading partners mentioned. But the appeal of acquiring Hosmer wouldn’t be so much about Hosmer himself. “The Padres likely would have to attach significant prospect value” to trade Hosmer, says Rosenthal. So, any team acquiring Hosmer would need to have enough payroll space to pay him, but with an eye towards the future production the prospects would provide. Speculatively speaking, the Cubs could be a fit. They’ve seemingly already started a sell-off, trading Joc Pederson to Atlanta earlier this month. First baseman and impending free agent Anthony Rizzo seems destined to be traded, unless the team can work out an extension. Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are also coming off the books at year’s end, or even sooner, creating more payroll space.

A return to the Royals is another intriguing possibility. They’ve been in rebuild mode since Hosmer left but tried to re-emerge as contenders with some aggressive moves in the most recent offseason. But that hasn’t gone as planned, as they are currently 42-55 and definite sellers as Friday’s 4pm trade deadline approaches. Acquiring Hosmer and some prospects could be a way to improve for future seasons while re-acquiring a fan favorite who was part of a World Series winner to help open the next competitive window.  The Orioles and Tigers could also consider taking on Hosmer’s contract as a way of bolstering their prospect inventory.

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