Padres starter Joe Musgrove is in his final season of arbitration-eligibility, setting him up to reach free agency for the first time this winter. Despite being just six months from the open market, the right-hander remains open to discussing an extension with the Friars.
Speaking with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Musgrove indicated he told the Padres in Spring Training he’d be willing to negotiate a long-term deal during the season. “I was like, ‘I prefer to not do it (during the season),” Musgrove said. “But if you guys have an enticing offer and it’s something you think I’d be interested in, send it to my agent and we’ll talk about it. We’ll find the right time to do it.’”
It’s common for players to set Opening Day as a hard deadline for extension talks, whether because they believe a self-imposed cutoff maximizes negotiating leverage or merely believe that in-season discussions could divert attention away from their performance. Musgrove, though, is a San Diego-area native who has spoken about his affinity for the city. Given those geographic ties, it’s not surprising he’d be willing to buck the common trend and consider extension figures from the Padres
Acee writes the Padres were not in touch with Musgrove’s camp about a long-term deal over the offseason. Of course, the three-plus month lockout could’ve played a role in that lack of communication, as teams were barred from interacting with players between the start of December and the second week of March. On either end of the lockout, clubs were faced with a frenzy of other activity. That didn’t completely kill the Spring Training extension market, but it’s conceivable it could’ve delayed some talks which might have taken place during a normal winter.
Musgrove is lined up as one of the top pitchers in the upcoming free agent class. Jacob deGrom has maintained he’ll trigger an opt-out clause at the end of the year. Carlos Rodón will have an opt-out opportunity if he pitches 110 innings, while Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander and Mike Clevinger will be in-demand arms if they perform this year as they did before undergoing 2020 Tommy John surgeries. Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea are reliable mid-rotation types. Musgrove, though, offers as strong a combination of performance and relative youth as any starter who’d be on the market, as he’ll enter his age-30 campaign in 2023.
Indeed, Musgrove holds his own in comparison to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray, two of the top free agent arms of this past offseason. Between 2019-21, Musgrove posted a 3.79 ERA that tied Gausman’s mark and checked in a bit better than Ray’s 3.93. Musgrove has the lowest strikeout rate of that trio (25.4%, compared to 31.1% for Ray and 28.6% for Gausman), but he posted the highest ground-ball rate of the group and tied Gausman for the lowest walk percentage.
If one looks only at 2020-21, Gausman takes a slight edge over the other two hurlers. Ray had the most impressive 2021 campaign. In each window, though, Musgrove’s performance isn’t too dissimilar than that of either Gausman or Ray. The Padres righty will also be a year younger next winter than Gausman is now. It stands to reason Musgrove’s reps at Full Circle Sports Management will look at the respective terms Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Ray (five years, $115MM with an opt-out clause) landed as comparison points in any extension talks.
Of course, there’s some risk that Musgrove gets injured or underperforms in the next few months. To his credit, he hasn’t shown any worrisome signs early in the season. Musgrove has tossed 19 innings over his first three starts, allowing just four runs with 21 strikeouts and a single walk to go along with a 44.7% grounder rate that falls right in line with his career mark.
I realize I’m not in their position, but I honestly don’t understand not being willing to negotiate terms during a season. The agent does most of the work. The player just sets his asking price and years and then has final say on whether an offer from the team is acceptable. As for it being a distraction, ok, maybe, but really, for how long? A week, two weeks, while terms are ironed out? I think it’s really just a negotiating tactic in a lot of cases. “Make me your best offer by Opening Day or I test FA.”
And yes, I realize Musgrove *is* willing to negotiate in-season. My comment is on all the players who have said they won’t.
It has nothing to do with “distractions”. It’s a negotiation tactic to try and force teams to provide their best offers by the deadline. Not dissimilar to MLB’s tactic of saying they would cancel games if the CBA wasn’t approved by a certain date.
Bunch of college negotiating 101 bs. Also makes them have some positive pr instead of accepting the truth that the team doesn’t think they are as valuable as they do. If you make the right offer they will say yes. Go to Judge with a 400 million deal and what’s he gonna say? Sorry but I gave you a deadline. I know I won’t get that much in free agency but I am willing to loss a ton of money to stick to my principils.
Being under valued by your current employer would be a long term distraction.
As for judge, he knows what Yankees have to offer, why would he not now see what 29 other teams have to say being so close to Fa
This guy is a good pitcher and a good guy who was the main and in some respects the only talented player that the Pirates received for Gerrit Cole.
I sense the reasons for and against negotiating during the year.The downside as mentioned would be that the price could change in either direction.
I think that it would be a priority for the Padres to lock him long term and he may very well take a home team discount.A talented and sturdy and happy starter is a necessity for any team with championship aspirations.
He doesn’t get hurt enough for Preller to give him a long term deal. Better start riding motorcycles Joe.
TRUTH! ∆∆∆∆∆∆∆
Not bad for a guy who couldn’t make the Astros rotation.
When he was young, and still figuring it out..
I get the sense that Musgrove might be a bit underrated by fans and some experts, but he’s not underrated among his peers. Teams know who he is and what he can do, and if it comes to it, Musgrove will have a long list of suitors in free agency. He’s a rock solid rotation piece.
For sure! His career path has gotten better almost every year, and he’s just figured it out over the last couple years..which puts him right in his prime..
While I hope he stays in SD, I have a feeling he’s gonna be offered the hometown discount offer..something like 5yrs/90m..if he takes it? That’d be amazing..but if he doesn’t, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a big 1st half, and is traded at the deadline..Hope I’m wrong..because in my opinion, he’s worth more that Ray or Gausman..and he’s just coming into his prime..if he was on a better team last year, he easily could’ve won 15-20 games..which pretty much always puts you in Cy Young contention with a 3.18 ERA..Dude’s a number 1 or two starter at this point, and he deserves to get that money.
Why would the Padres trade their most reliable starter at the deadline after a big first half that’s a terrible argument.
Especially if they are in contention.
Especially if he is a very good pitcher.
Especially if he wants to come back to San Diego anyway.
On the other hand,if they are completely out of it,they may also be able to eventually “get their cake and eat it too”.
If they aren’t in contention, haven’t extended him by the deadline and can get something better than the draft pick from the QO then yeah, they should trade him then bring him back (ala the Yankees with Aroldis Chapman or the Cubs with Jason Hammel). But Preller generally isn’t one to sell if the team is even on the outskirts of contention.
And with 523 teams making the postseason this year it’s almost impossible to be out of contention (unless you’re the reds of course).
Looks like it’s time for the Padres to put up or shut up. The Dodgers would sign this guy if given the chance. If they really want to play with the big dogs they need spend wisely like the big dogs. Get it done, Preller. No one would fault him for signing Musgrove.
Hate to say it, but they have to trade Hosmer first..and surprisingly, he’s helping them with his hot start..those who follow closely know there’s a 1-20 coming soon for him though. Hopefully AJ can get something done while he’s still rollin..
An extension might not require unloading Hosmer. They could sign him to a long term deal with deferred salary so in the next few years he won’t break their bank.
Lux tax dollars are another concern that deferred money does not help.
Excellent point
Padres have Manaea, clevinger, mustgrove and possibly Martinez (opt out) free agents at the of the year. Along with darvish and snell the year after.
They will need to decide which guys they want to committ to.
Mustgrove the most likely because he is a local dude.
They must sign mustgrove
Hoping AJ gets Musgrove and Manaea locked up, Clev comes back, has a solid 1st half, and is dealt..and as for Martinez? We still don’t know what he is yet..but know he’s contract heavy..so if he walks, he walks..that’d leave them with a rotation of Darvish, Musgrove, Manaea, Gore, and Snell going into ‘23..not too shabby..
If Clev has a solid first half the only way he is dealt is if the rest of the team tanks. If they are in the race and Clev is actually effective they’re gonna need him.
Yep legend. Everything they’re doing with Clev in his rehab is to take it slow in the first half, getting him ready for the (hoped for) playoff push/playoffs. If he helps them in 22 and then leaves as FA in 23, so be it – I wouldn’t think that will affect their decision to extent/or not, Musgrove this season.
So the question I have is if they extend him, do the Padres go over the luxury tax because the AAV of his contract goes up? Or since its a new contract, the hit isnt until 2023? That may be what the hold up is since they are only a few million under the mark.
Pretty sure it hits in ‘23..
Good question dvmin. The adjusted AAV would start in ’23. Also, just as a point of reference, your current assessment of the CBT figure for ’22 is closer to $1 million under the $230m tier, not a few. Your point stands though. If we wish to stay under, we might have to get tricky later on if we add. Go Pads!
Preller is an absolute trainwreck when it comes to offering contracts. Inflated contracts with people who didn’t deserve them. Now he has somebody who deserves it, but they’ve got a limited salary ability because of the cap. The cap that was approached because he signed way too many people for way too much money and usually have way too many injuries.
I think they’ll keep Musgrove around
Yeah, well Myers is gone next year. Lamet likely is gone too. Clev may be too. Plenty of money to go around.
Voit and Manaea salaries also gone in 23. Though I hope they find a way to keep Manaea
Do it! Local guy who threw the first no hitter in padres history. Can’t let him go
I think that even Preller is smart enough to know that Musgrove is a fine pitcher and a local guy and good guy and the Padres would take a real hit from their fans if he lets him walk.They are not going to in any way compete within the Dodgers and their wealth if he does not keep pitchers like Musgrove.
If Musgrove is happy there and since it is local and since he is reasonable they will not have to go overboard with the offer.
Pending FA. They don’t get to “let” or “not let” him do anything.
No doubt the Padres want to keep Musgrove. He’s a great fit on the SD club, and for S.D. fans, and he has the performance and durability track record to support an extension. However, it’s not that simple.
The Padres have an abundance of talent who **MAY** be able to start for them this year. Clevenger is a candidate for extension. Manaea certainly is, not just because of the couple of starts this year in San Diego, but again, both his consistent performance and durability. What about Gore? If he’s all that the Padres and MLB have projected, and it looks like he’s coming into his own, wouldn’t it be wise for the Padres to lock him up as another franchise player?
Then there are the position players to consider. Cronenworth is almost too good to let walk. The Pads have to make him an offer. If Abrams breaks out this season, the Padres should certainly lock him up long term, though his breakout season may be 2023, i.e. he’s still developing.
The Padres do have some money coming off the books in 2024, i.e. Myers contract, and Hosmer’s drops from $20M to an affordable $13M. However, that’s not nearly enough to support those extensions. Darvish doesn’t roll off until 2024.
I’m sure Preller has some sort of long term plan and priority list, but balancing Musgrove against all of the rest of future salary demands, he may have made the calculation that the team can’t afford Musgrove long term at market rates. That’s OK, too. The Pads on paper look like they have the best starting depth in the majors, and many of those guys, Darvish, Manaea, Snell, Clevenger, Gore (take your pick) look like TOR, or top half of rotation guys. Nice to have, but financially, that may not work out for the future.
As far as Musgrove conceptually NOT entertaining $$$ during the season, that’s all B.S. anyhow. If Musgrove’s market value is something like $125M for five years (yeah, plus or minus $50M), he likes the club and location he’s playing, and Preller knocks on his agents door and says “How about 5yr/$122M, with options xxxx….?”, how’s Musgrove going to respond? (A) “Let’s wait. I wanna see if I can get $135M as a FA” (B) “Tell them forget it; I’ll don’t do business during the season. I LOVE having my winters up in the air, not knowing who I’ll sign with, or where I’ll be playing next year until Spring Training 2023!!” (C) “Where do I sign; let’s get this over.” Obviously, if Preller low-balls Musgrove with a “San Diego discount” offer, the answer may be (A) or (B). Even then, Musgrove’s response to an offer such as, 4 yr/$100M, might be “How about 6 yrs, $150M?”, and then the dickering begins.
Remember, NO ballplayer has gone to arbitration while Preller has been GM. That means that he’s got a pretty good idea of market values, and generally doesn’t low-ball players, particularly with extensions. I think a Musgrove deal has about a 60% chance of getting done, but that’s only because of all the other financial obligations (and extensions) Preller has on his plate, not based upon the desire of either party.
No need to extend Cronenworth. They control him through his age 31 season with no extension (should have been age 32 but Preller stupidly didn’t manipulate his service time).
As for Musgrove, it will ultimately come down to money but so far Preller has had difficulty extending key players.
I’m really curious to see how Cronenworth plays this year. His defense is well above average – not flashy, but he plays incredibly smart and in control always. His approach to hitting is very sound so he could continue to develop as a hitter. But it’s also possible he’s plateaued already, and maybe even over-achieved a bit in the last 2 years? I’m glad they don’t need to negotiate a contract anytime soon and it can all play out. If he booms into an unaffordable star (not likely at his age) and they miss the chance to extend him now, well, they also have options at 2B with CJ Abrams who has way more upside anyway.
Players in arb are never unaffordable.
Throw 2019 Musgrove and any year prior out the window. When Ben Cherington took over Musgrove was allowed to pitch to his strengths vs what the Pirates method was. 2021 2022 is what he is. 2019 just brings down his numbers and unfairly.
Any chance they move Darvish to clear space for Gore and cap for Musgrove? I see Darvish as a fair value player for this and next season, should be able to get a decent A ball prospect to help keep their “waves” ready
I love Yu… but I would trade him for Thor and a lottery ticket. Angels get 2 years of Yu and we clear room for ’23. Both teams don’t lose a TOR arm and steady their respective plans.
That just sounds like a weird lateral move
Why would they move Darvish at this point? All the reasons they traded for him in the first place are still valid and his trade value is not what it was then.
Preller doesn’t like to admit losses on trades, so I agree its unlikely. I guess the thought was they need more arms at that time and their tune now is trade from pitching depth, unless that was code for we need to get the f away from Paddack/Pagan
What pitching depth? Clevinger and Snell have already gotten injured and it’s only a matter of time until Darvish does too.
If Preller was shy about trading guys at a loss, he never would have traded Frazier to Seattle?
I believe that was more luxury tax related that giving up on the guy
If you think Darvish will inevitably get hurt that would only add to any motivation to trade now for any of the reasons listed above