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Joe Musgrove

Quick Hits: Musgrove, Alford, Kreidler, Arenado

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The Padres and Joe Musgrove remain far apart in their potential extension talks. The latest offer from San Diego was reportedly in the ballpark of an eight-year deal with an $11MM AAV, per The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal. The length of the deal is somewhat surprising for the 29-year-old Musgrove, though the overall value is probably south of what the righty is seeking. Musgrove was arguably the Friars’ most reliable starter last season, tossing 181 1/3 innings with a 3.18 ERA/3.70 FIP, 27.1% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate, and 43.5% groundball rate. He is a free agent at the end of the year.

  • Outfielder Anthony Alford has cleared waivers and joined the Pirates Triple-A affiliate in Indianapolis, per Jason Mackey of PG Sports Now (via Twitter). Alford has appeared in the Majors in each season going back to 2017, including this one. The 27-year-old went 1-4 in two games. He made 148 plate appearances last season, a career high, slashing .233/.311/.406, good for a 93 wRC+. Alford’s ability to man all three outfield spots could be a factor in finding his way back to the bigs, either for the Pirates or elsewhere later in the season.
  • Tigers prospect Ryan Kreidler suffered a right hand fracture that will knock the Triple-A infielder out indefinitely, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. The 24-year-old had yet to make his Major League debut, though with a .246/.346/.462 line through 78 plate appearances in Triple-A, he was on his way.
  • Nolan Arenado was able to cut his suspension from two games down to one, per The Athletic’s Katie Woo (via Twitter). He will serve the suspension today, per MLB.com’s John Denton (via Twitter). The Cardinals third baseman was suspended for his part in a bench-clearing brawl with the Mets. The tiff was sparked by a high-and-tight fastball on Arenado from Yoan Lopez.

 

Joe Musgrove Open To In-Season Extension Talks

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Padres starter Joe Musgrove is in his final season of arbitration-eligibility, setting him up to reach free agency for the first time this winter. Despite being just six months from the open market, the right-hander remains open to discussing an extension with the Friars.

Speaking with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Musgrove indicated he told the Padres in Spring Training he’d be willing to negotiate a long-term deal during the season. “I was like, ‘I prefer to not do it (during the season),” Musgrove said. “But if you guys have an enticing offer and it’s something you think I’d be interested in, send it to my agent and we’ll talk about it. We’ll find the right time to do it.’”

It’s common for players to set Opening Day as a hard deadline for extension talks, whether because they believe a self-imposed cutoff maximizes negotiating leverage or merely believe that in-season discussions could divert attention away from their performance. Musgrove, though, is a San Diego-area native who has spoken about his affinity for the city. Given those geographic ties, it’s not surprising he’d be willing to buck the common trend and consider extension figures from the Padres

Acee writes the Padres were not in touch with Musgrove’s camp about a long-term deal over the offseason. Of course, the three-plus month lockout could’ve played a role in that lack of communication, as teams were barred from interacting with players between the start of December and the second week of March. On either end of the lockout, clubs were faced with a frenzy of other activity. That didn’t completely kill the Spring Training extension market, but it’s conceivable it could’ve delayed some talks which might have taken place during a normal winter.

Musgrove is lined up as one of the top pitchers in the upcoming free agent class. Jacob deGrom has maintained he’ll trigger an opt-out clause at the end of the year. Carlos Rodón will have an opt-out opportunity if he pitches 110 innings, while Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander and Mike Clevinger will be in-demand arms if they perform this year as they did before undergoing 2020 Tommy John surgeries. Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea are reliable mid-rotation types. Musgrove, though, offers as strong a combination of performance and relative youth as any starter who’d be on the market, as he’ll enter his age-30 campaign in 2023.

Indeed, Musgrove holds his own in comparison to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray, two of the top free agent arms of this past offseason. Between 2019-21, Musgrove posted a 3.79 ERA that tied Gausman’s mark and checked in a bit better than Ray’s 3.93. Musgrove has the lowest strikeout rate of that trio (25.4%, compared to 31.1% for Ray and 28.6% for Gausman), but he posted the highest ground-ball rate of the group and tied Gausman for the lowest walk percentage.

If one looks only at 2020-21, Gausman takes a slight edge over the other two hurlers. Ray had the most impressive 2021 campaign. In each window, though, Musgrove’s performance isn’t too dissimilar than that of either Gausman or Ray. The Padres righty will also be a year younger next winter than Gausman is now. It stands to reason Musgrove’s reps at Full Circle Sports Management will look at the respective terms Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Ray (five years, $115MM with an opt-out clause) landed as comparison points in any extension talks.

Of course, there’s some risk that Musgrove gets injured or underperforms in the next few months. To his credit, he hasn’t shown any worrisome signs early in the season. Musgrove has tossed 19 innings over his first three starts, allowing just four runs with 21 strikeouts and a single walk to go along with a 44.7% grounder rate that falls right in line with his career mark.

East Notes: Mets, Hand, Bradley, Yankees, Rays

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The Mets made an offer to free agent reliever Brad Hand that was “right in the ballpark” of the one-year, $10.5MM deal he agreed to with the Nationals, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). New York was linked to Hand throughout the offseason, with team president Sandy Alderson acknowledging the club might’ve claimed him last fall had the team’s ownership change been finalized at the time Hand was available on waivers. After missing out on their top lefty bullpen target, the Mets could look into a Justin Wilson reunion, Heyman posits.

More news and notes from the game’s East divisions:

  • Elsewhere on the Mets, free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. is “on their radar,” hears Heyman (Twitter link). That’s hardly an indication New York is actively engaged in the bidding for Bradley, but he does make sense as a potential target for the Mets after they missed out on George Springer. Outfield isn’t necessarily an area of need, but acquiring a true center fielder would push current projected starter Brandon Nimmo into a corner role for which he might be better suited. Bradley is one of the game’s best defenders and coming off a strong 2020 season at the plate.
  • The Yankees tried to acquire Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon in a package deal with the Pirates before Pittsburgh traded Musgrove to the Padres, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). New York ended up pulling in Taillon for a package of four prospects this morning. Taillon and free agent signee Corey Kluber have been New York’s most important rotation pickups this winter.
  • The Rays are hiring former major league outfielder Denard Span as a special assistant in baseball operations, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A Tampa native, Span spent part of the 2018 season playing for the Rays. The former first-rounder also played for the Twins, Nationals, Giants and Mariners over an eleven-year MLB playing career. Span explained his decision to retire as a player last June.

Jameson Taillon Could Be Next Pirates Player To Be Traded

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10:45 pm: A trade does appear to be on the horizon, potentially as soon as tomorrow, per Jason Mackey (via Twitter). By all accounts, nothing has been finalized. The Pirates are said to be looking for high-ceiling prospects, even if that means taking players who are further away from reaching the Majors.

8:45 pm: The Yankees are indeed one of the teams talking to the Pirates about Taillon, tweets MLB Insider Jon Heyman. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) goes as far as to say they “appear to be emerging as the frontrunner.” The Yankees are not the only team involved, however, as the Pirates have offers from multiple teams, adds Jason Mackey of PGSportsNow. Taillon has two years of control remaining.

2:23 pm: Joe Musgrove now gets his paychecks from the San Diego Padres, and Josh Bell his from the Washington Nationals, so it’s only natural that someone step into the void as the “next Pirates player to be traded.” According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter), right-hander Jameson Taillon is in the proverbial on-deck circle. Feinsand and MLB.com’s Adam Berry hear that Jameson could be moved as soon as this weekend.

When Taillon made his debut as a 24-year-old in 2016, he and then-rotation-mate Gerrit Cole represented a promising core that was meant to build on the success of a 98-win 2015 team. That future never quite came to be, of course, as the Pirates fell back to the basement of the NL Central and now face yet another organizational rebuild. From that perspective, trades of the roster’s veterans are borderline inevitable. Still, a Taillon trade at this juncture is not without its complications, given his uncertain status returning from Tommy John surgery. Taillon went under the knife in August 2019, missing the entire 2020 season. It was the second Tommy John surgery of his career.

Taillon’s one full season came in 2018 when he made 32 starts and logged 191 innings with a 3.20 ERA/3.46 FIP, 22.8 percent strikeout rate, 5.9 percent walk rate, and 46.2 percent walk rate. That’s the version of Taillon that will stick in the heads of opposing teams as they consider acquiring the 29-year-old. Generally speaking, Taillon brings better-than-average strikeout rates, near-elite walk rates, and a career-average 85 FIP-. Though expectations should be tempered to reflect his injury status, it’s fair to hope that Taillon might again provide mid-rotation-or-better production for a contender.

The Yankees were linked to Taillon earlier this offseason and could still be a potential landing spot. Of course, it would not be hard to find a team in need of a starting pitcher – even one coming off his second TJ surgery. Given the caution with which most teams are approaching increasing workloads for 2021, a rehabbing hurler like Taillon may benefit from a smoother transition back to action, as he would not be expected to post a 200-inning season out of the blocks.

Padres Acquire Joe Musgrove In 3-Team Trade

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TODAY: The trade is official.  The Padres get Musgrove, the Mets get Lucchesi, and the Pirates receive the five prospects (Rodriguez, Head, Cruz, Fellows, and Bednar).

JANUARY 18, 5:47pm: This is a three-team trade, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray, who reports that the Mets will acquire Lucchesi. The Pirates will get catcher/outfielder Endy Rodriguez, per Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.

5:40pm: Pittsburgh will get five players in return, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Head and lefty Omar Cruz are among those going to the Pirates, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Southpaw Joey Lucchesi is also part of the trade, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports, as are righties David Bednar and and Drake Fellows, Lin relays.

5:18pm: The Padres have agreed to acquire right-hander Joe Musgrove from the Pirates, Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets. The Pirates will receive “a large package of prospects,” potentially including outfielder Hudson Head, according to Passan.

This is the fourth significant trade for a starter in recent months for the Padres, who first acquired righty Mike Clevinger from Cleveland before last August’s deadline. Clevinger was quite effective for the Padres after the trade, but elbow issues limited him to one inning during the team’s NLDS loss to the division-rival Dodgers in October, and he won’t pitch at all in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November.

After losing Clevinger for the upcoming season, the Padres swung trades with the Cubs for Yu Darvish, a National League Cy Young contender in 2020, as well as with the Rays for former AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. They’ll presumably have Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Dinelson Lamet (if he’s healthy after dealing with bicep troubles last year) and Chris Paddack in their season-opening rotation, though prospects MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers and Adrian Morejon could be among younger Pads pushing for starts in 2021.

In Musgrove, San Diego is getting a California native who owns a 4.33 ERA in 496 2/3 innings between the Astros and Pirates, but he entered the offseason as one of the majors’ most intriguing trade chips after a career-best campaign. The 28-year-old threw 39 2/3 innings and recorded a 3.86 ERA/3.50 SIERA, all while registering a personal-high 14.4 percent swinging-strike rate and placing 10th in the majors in strikeout percentage (33.1 percent). That production would have made it more difficult for the low-payroll Pirates to extend Musgrove, who’s due $4.45MM in 2021 and has one more year of arbitration control left after that.

Lucchesi could have been part of the Padres’ rotation next season, but he’ll instead go to New York and compete for the No. 5 spot in its starting group. The Mets’ staff looked terrific before this deal with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson comprising their top four, but Steven Matz had been the front-runner for the fifth position after a dismal 2020. He’ll now have to go against Lucchesi, who recorded ERAs in the 4.00s in 2018 and ’19 before tossing just 5 2/3 innings in the bigs last year. Lucchesi’s not eligible to become a free agent until after 2024.

With no chance to contend in the near future, it made sense for the Pirates to move on from Musgrove in favor of a package of younger players.  For Musgrove, they’re receiving at least four well-regarded prospects in Head, Cruz, Bednar and Rodriguez, whom MLB.com ranked among the top 20 farmhands in their teams’ farm systems.

Head (No. 7) went in the third round of the 2019 draft and then signed a record bonus for $3MM. The 19-year-old possesses an “extremely high” ceiling, according to MLB.com. Cruz (17) and Bednar (20) were also solid Padres prospects, with MLB.com calling Cruz a possible back-end starter and Bednar a hard thrower with promise. Fellows did not rank among the Padres’ top 30 prospects at MLB.com, and Baseball America wrote before the club drafted him that his 93 to 94 mph fastball is “often hittable because he struggles to hit his spots.” However, BA added that Fellows’ slider could at least help make him a legitimate major league reliever.

Rodriguez, 20, was the Mets’ 14th-ranked prospect at MLB.com before the trade. MLB.com writes that Rodriguez has “an advanced approach and natural bat-to-ball skills” that will be all the more valuable if he sticks at catcher, though a future in the outfield does seem like a possibility.

The main takeaway here is that the Padres remain serious about vying for a World Series – something they have never won – in the near future. Even if it doesn’t happen in the short term, though, the Padres appear to be set up to succeed for the long haul. Their MLB roster is one of the game’s best, and as BA notes on Twitter, the Padres still lead the league with seven top 100 prospects.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Joe Musgrove Drawing Increased Trade Interest

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The Pirates traded Josh Bell to the Nationals last week, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Pittsburgh righty Joe Musgrove is drawing “keen” interest and could get a look from clubs that missed on Blake Snell (not that the two are comparable in terms of track record). Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette offers a similar sentiment, tweeting that multiple sources have told him they believe “Musgrove is next” for Pirates as they look to continue their rebuilding effort.

Musgrove, who turned 28 earlier this month, is among the most obvious trade candidates on the market. He could very well have been dealt this past summer had he not landed on the injured list with what proved to be a fairly minor triceps issue. Musgrove missed about three weeks with the injury and, upon returning, rattled off his best starts of the season.

The triceps issue and the shortened slate of games in 2020 combined to limit Musgrove to 39 2/3 innings. He was solid when on the mound, however, pitching to a 3.86 ERA and 3.42 ERA with a 33.1 percent strikeout rate that shattered his previous career-high (21.9 percent). Musgrove saved the best for last in 2020, closing out the year 13 shutout innings against the Cardinals and Indians. He yielded just six hits and two walks against 21 strikeouts in that time — the best two-game stretch of his career. Musgrove upped not only the usage of his slider and his curveball in 2020 but also his spin rate on both pitches, which may help to explain the uptick in missed bats.

Musgrove headlined the return in the trade that sent Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh to Houston back in Jan. 2018, and just under three years later, he finds himself in a similar spot. While he obviously is not the same caliber of pitcher as Cole, Musgrove is a prime-aged starter with a quality track record who is under control for two more seasons at a highly reasonable rate. He’s owed a raise on last year’s $2.8MM salary, although the injury will suppress some of his earning power in arbitration, and is controllable through the 2022 season. An extension doesn’t seem likely to come from the Pirates, though an acquiring club could have interest in trying to keep him long term.

Musgrove was the No. 46 overall pick by the Blue Jays back in 2011 and was regarded as a Top 100 prospect prior to his Major League debut. He’s been a solid mid-rotation arm to this point in his career, though his overall 2020 results and his excellent finish might lead to some optimism that he still has another gear into which he can tap. Since being traded to Pittsburgh, Musgrove has given the Pirates 325 1/3 innings of 4.23 ERA/3.69 FIP ball, averaging 8.6. K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 1.05 HR/9  to go along with a 45.9 percent ground-ball rate.

The Blue Jays are on the hunt for arms and nearly acquired Musgrove this past summer, so it stands to reason that they’d have interest again. Others known to be in the market for starting pitching include the Angels, Mets, Mariners, Twins, Red Sox and Giants. Given Musgrove’s affordable salary, he’d be a logical fit on any contender or hopeful contender looking to add to its rotation.

Pirates Joe Musgrove, Adam Frazier Mentioned Most Often In Trade Talks

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A report surfaced yesterday linking two of the Pirates’ most recognizable players to trade conversations with the New York Yankees as the potential partner. The Yankees and Pirates have discussed a swap that would send Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon to the Bronx, though there’s no indication the two sides are close on a deal.

The Pirates would be selling low on both players, with Taillon on his way back from Tommy John and Bell coming off a rough 2020. Given Pittsburgh’s overall lack of appealing trade assets – and the Pirates’ need to maximize said assets – it would be surprising to see the Pirates part with the pair for anything less than what would seem like an overpay, given the pair’s current circumstances.

There’s another duo of Pirates whose names have been bandied about the trade wire even more often, however. Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier have been the most frequently mentioned names in trade conversations, according to MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Musgrove has arguably been the most consistent presence in the Buccos’ rotation since his arrival in the much-ballyhooed Gerrit Cole trade. A former first round draft choice of the Toronto Blue Jays, the former Astro has put up 3.6 bWAR in three seasons with the Pirates, pitching to a 4.23 ERA/3.69 FIP over 325 1/3 innings spanning 58 starts. Musgrove should make a very palatable salary in the range of $3.8MM his second time through arbitration, plus any acquiring team would get one final season of control beyond 2021.

Musgrove’s strikeout rate jumped to 12.48 K/9 over eight starts in 2020, well above his previous career-high of 8.30 K/9. His walk rate jumped with it, however, to a career-high 3.6 BB/9. His overall K/BB ratio of 3.44 K/BB actually tied with his rookie season for the lowest mark in his career. Still, there are some who see the 28-year-old as a potential breakout candidate, including Tim Williams of Pittsburgh Baseball.

Williams notes that Frazier profiles as a solid utility option for a contender. Frazier’s primary position is second base, but he’s appeared all over the outfield for the Pirates. Earlier in his career, he made fleeting appearances at shortstop and third base as well. Last season, he split his time between the keystone and left field.

Frazier – who turns 29 years old in four days – has never been accused of carrying a thunderous bat, but he’s been a largely-productive regular throughout his career, posting 2.4 bWAR per 650 plate appearances across five seasons. His .230/.297/.364 line was down across the board, though apologists could point to a strikeout rate of 15.2% that still saw him put the ball in play at a well-above-average rate, and a 7.4 BB% was well within his career norms. Looking a little deeper at Statcast measures like exit velocity and hard hit percentage, Frazier’s numbers dipped in 2020, but not so much to assume he couldn’t have rebounded over a full campaign.

Quick Hits: Sugano, Arihara, Padres, Varitek, Pirates

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Right-handers Tomoyuki Sugano and Kohei Arihara “are on the Padres’ radar,” The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes (subscription required).  The two Nippon Professional Baseball veterans will both be available on the posting market, and represent intriguing alternatives to more established Major Leaguer hurlers in free agency.  As Lin notes, the Padres have worked to establish a scouting pipeline to the Asian leagues, with Pierce Johnson and Kazuhisa Makita representing San Diego’s most prominent NPB signings in recent years.

Sugano and Arihara are quite likely to each land multi-year deals but perhaps not overly long commitments, which could appeal to a Padres team Lin says is “mulling one-year deals as a way to reinforce a rotation.”  The Padres will be without Mike Clevinger in 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, leaving a vacancy in the starting mix.

Some more from around baseball…

  • Jason Varitek officially joined the Red Sox coaching staff earlier this month, working in the new position of game planning coordinator.  This is Varitek’s first assignment as a full-time MLB coach, and the longtime former catcher tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that eventually managing a team is “the ultimate goal” down the road in his post-playing career.  Varitek has worked as a special assistant within the Boston front office since 2012, a post that has allowed him to dabble in several different organizational facets such as scouting, player development, and (most recently) working with Red Sox catchers throughout the 2020 season.  “There are no set parameters” to the game planning coordinator job, Varitek said: “I’ll work with the catchers and pitchers and be a liaison with the analytics people.  Whatever comes my way, I’ll help out.  It ends up being the same thing I have been doing, helping the players grow.”
  • The Pirates are known to be considering all options on the trade front this winter, though The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (subscription required) doesn’t think Josh Bell or Gregory Polanco will be dealt since the Bucs would likely be selling low on either player.  “It’s more likely than not” that Joe Musgrove will be traded, though Biertempfel also thinks it’s possible Musgrove could be signed to a contract extension, with Pittsburgh either seeing him as a long-term piece or perhaps using the extension as a way of enhancing Musgrove’s trade value.

Trade Candidate: Joe Musgrove

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There are few players more likely to be traded this winter than Joe Musgrove. After putting up the league’s worst record, the Pirates are clearly not in position to immediately contend. That means GM Ben Cherington and the rest of the Pittsburgh front office are likely to be open to offers for most of their veteran players.

It’s not a good time for the Pirates to try to move most of those players, though. Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier and Josh Bell all struggled to varying degrees in 2020. Trading any of that trio would be selling low; indeed, the Pirates are expected to first try to work out an extension with Bell this offseason. Unlike most of the Pittsburgh roster, Musgrove is coming off a strong season. He tossed 39.2 innings of 3.86 ERA/3.42 FIP ball. More impressively, Musgrove punched out 33.1% of opposing hitters, a stark improvement over his previous career marks.

Musgrove’s jump in strikeouts and whiffs might be a bit of small sample blip, especially since a brief IL stint for triceps inflammation limited him to eight starts, but he’d carved out a role as a solid mid-rotation starter over the prior couple seasons. Since joining the Pirates in advance of the 2018 season, Musgrove has thrown 325.1 innings with a 4.23 ERA and solid strikeout (22.8%) and walk (5.7%) rates. That level of production would appeal to a number of pitching-needy teams.

In an offseason when many teams are expected to cut payroll, Musgrove would also represent a more affordable addition than many of the options available in free agency. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Musgrove to bring in an amount in the $3.2MM-$4.4MM range via arbitration. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more next winter before reaching free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.

The Blue Jays and Pirates reportedly got close to a deal involving Musgrove during the season. It’s possible Toronto revisits those talks again, although they subsequently acquired Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling, both of whom remain in the fold. Virtually any team looking to contend in the short-term could try to strengthen their rotations by exploring a Musgrove deal. The A’s, Angels, Braves, Phillies and Yankees are among a host of teams who might fit the bill. There hasn’t been any movement on the Musgrove front to this point, but his name figures to be bandied about quite a bit in the coming months.

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