The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.
Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.
It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.
Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.
Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.
Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.
The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.
Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.
For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.
It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.
Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently — and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.
Need some trades legs go
Twins could potentially pair Mahle (or Castillo) with Barnhart, his long-time battery mate.
Barnhart is on the Tigers.
Yes, Barnhart is now on the Tigers. Before this season, he was Cincinnati’s starting catcher.
And if you bother to read the article, it lists Barnhart as a target for the Twins.
Focusing on Mahle instead Castillo or Montas is the most quintessentially Twins move possible. Another season going into the postseason relying on mediocre SP, what could go wrong?
Calling Mahle a mediocre SP is where you went wrong.
I mean, all you have to do is click on the stat sheets for each pitcher?
The article above discusses BOTH the basic numbers and the underlying stats. As laid out the author states that “It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home.
Even the worst FOs do more than a cursory review of basic stat sheets. Heck, they might even have scouts watch a few of his games …
The confounding variables remain high… how many games did he pitch against the Pirates? Where did the pre-DH NL central rank offensively? It’s not that he isn’t intriguing or has upside, it’s just that he’s never performed that well in his entire career and on any serious contender he currently slots in as a 4 or 5. Twins don’t have the pitching to be a serious contender and he wont change that.
The variables seem confounding to you and you alone. Mahle had a 3.59 and 3.75 ERA the past two years. How is that not performing well considering that half of his games are pitched at GABP? And peripheral stats suggest that the ERA is inflated, despite being very good.
There are three division leaders and three wildcard teams in each league. And each league there are two teams on the outside looking in that are legitimate threats. So that’s 8 teams in each league = 16 teams overall in the mix and you are saying that Mahle is a 4 or 5 on any “serious” contender? Were the Braves a “serious” contender last year?
Please enlighten us as to what teams would Mahle be the 4 or 5 on.
I’m not sure you understand what a confounding variable is, google it.
Tyler Mahle is 1A just behind Luis Castillo. You clearly don’t know a lot about Tyler Mahle.
I would do nasty things for them to pull off a trade for Lopez
Please.
Bu…bu…I was told “mAhLe isNT wORtH aNYwHErE nEaR aS mUCh” as Castillo and Montas
I hope Twins fans are appreciative of their ownership. They have really taken advantage of Correa falling in their lap. Anything they can do to improve without giving up an impact future piece should be done.
We wouldn’t think that Correa exactly “fell into the Twins lap” by signing a three-year, $105.3MM contract ($35 Million/yr) with opt-out clauses after the contract’s first and second seasons……more like they offered the best deal that gave him a) the yearly salary he wanted and b) opt out clauses that allows him to re-enter the market several times over the course of what is a max 3 year deal at this point……good for the Twins except I don’t think many will be purchasing Correa jerseys this winter in anticipation of next Spring.
You got a guy who should be getting close to 35 million a year for 10 years for a highly motivated 1 year. Maybe the guy is a hole but if so I bet he was a lot less problematic this year. Twins took advantage of weak ran teams who needed a ss signing the wrong one to bad contracts. By fell into their lap, they were never going to give him 300 million but when nobody else did they were there.
All true, but the contract demands of opt outs, plus salary demands of upwards of $35 Million over a long term contract just weren’t going to be met by teams that had to commit those types of money and team resources just to see him opt out to increase his payday……I again agree with you but I still don’t think that he “fell into their lap” just because the big play teams decided that his demands were too rich even for their blood…..obviously the Twins rolled the dice hoping that Correa might just bring them to the promised land of WS this season, or in the least hype up their marketing efforts that would put big time money into their coffers…..they knew all along that he would opt our after 1 year (Carlos probably thinks he’s meant for brighter lights)….so it basically was a 1 year gamble.
I have no reason to believe Correa is a “hole”. Look he is simply doing what any other great player would do if they had thr chance. He will certainly opt out after the season, so the Twins better hope they win it all this season.
hey knew all along that he would opt our after 1 year
======================
But does he opt out? He projects to a 3.8 bWAR. Good, but not $35M good. He might be looking at $240M/8. At this point, he might be better off taking $70M/2, and rolling the dice that he can do better than the difference of $170M/6.
At a huge risk of being saddled with a massive 3 year contract if he gets injured or underperforms vs 1 year of quality play. Still, they should definitely take a shot because the American league central won’t be bad forever.
“Anything they can do without giving up a future impact piece should be done”
Welp, guess they are out on mahle Castillo and montas then…..
I don’t know how much credit the Twins ultimately deserve for landing Correa –
I liked their offseason trade shuffles (Donny exit +) , I like the way they run their current ledger (they really don’t have much choice) ; but the market probably just drove Correa to Minny not Minnys front office doing anything special to land him there
I suppose the credit deserved was more so the tree trimmings they did prior to Correa to afford the room
You can bet the Twins didn’t call Boras about Correa.
It was surely Boras calling the Twins about Correa.
He was the man with the plan for his client…..
Once the opportunity and offer were presented to the Twins by Boras, the Twins had no other option than to accept. Had they not accepted and it got out to the media (by a leak from Boras’ office), the Twins would have been vilified by their fans and been the laughingstock of the league. And don’t you believe that ANY member of Twins Management and Ownership planned the Correa contract as being anything other than a “one and done”.
I think the Twins realized they shouldn’t go to Mauer/Donaldson range contracts currently – They got the good in a Correa contract here without the possible bad. I as well don’t think they entered free agency thinking Correa would be on their team shortly
Someone make a trade so we can get this thing started
Mets Pirates did already and people talked about it for a whole 5 minutes and moved on.
Steer for Mahle? Would you do it? Maybe throw in another lotto ticket player
Don’t fall for the analytics of this article…..changing leagues, and performance not only in a new home ballpark, but numerous AL ball parks that favor offense and worship the homer is a big NO to a Mahle trade……he just ain’t that good to be able to keep it in the yard in Mind…….
He plays in a launching pad now. Going to the AL Central with Minnesota as his home park isn’t going to hurt him. His home park would improve.
Yes, the little league parks in the AL East are a different animal but the Twins need to get to October.
You obviously don’t know much about Tyler Mahle. He is the third best SP on the trading block this summer. Most of his bad outings have come when he is pitching at Great American Ball Park which is a bandbox. Take a look at his home/Away spilts. It’s like night and day.
As a red’s fan, no thanks. Will take way more than that.
Unfortunately, you sound like every other teams fans who over-value current players or prospects in team systems….Yankees included……I distinctly remember White Sox fans RAVING about Quintana when he was a candidate to be moved……he was touted on this site as a 1A pitcher, or #2 in the least…..several years later we now know exactly what he is….an innings eater who is a back end starter…..is Mahle any different…..1 good season doesn’t hide the possibility that he is exactly who he is…. how much more than “way more” will it take in your opinion?
There’s a BIG difference between a prospect and a proven MLB player who has produced in more than one season.
Even if he repeated his best season he’d still be a number 4 or 5 for most serious contenders. Kudos to the Reds front office though, getting people to believe he’s 1a with zero evidence supporting it.
Zero evidence? Yeah right. As noted above, “Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three”.
Mahle would thrive in a larger ballpark such as San Fran’s.
Seems like a lot of wasted work for a team that not only never gets out of the first round, but also hasn’t even won a playoff GAME since 2004. Minnesota should just stick to Prince, hockey, flannel shirts, juicy Lucy’s and George Floyd protests.
Abysmal men’s pro sports is arguably MORE Minnesotan than everything you listed.
Finally…Someone giving Mahle the credit he deserves! I hope the Reds don’t just give him away for nothing, if other teams aren’t willing to pay the asking price then just keep him!
All that money they threw away on moose should have went to mahle !
Without a doubt! Good call!
Uhhh…no.
I’ll send you Thor plus $5 million bucks.
Can I get either Wallner or Woods-Richardson back?
How about Thor, Quijada, and some cash for Steer?
No thank you
“The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert…”
Of course they are, their bullpen SUCKS. Nobody wants their trash.
Additionally, Meyer, Cabrera, and Luzardo have shown they’re prone to injury, so I’m pretty sure nobody is going to touch them either at this point.
Sad state of affairs for a poorly constructed team and their minuscule fanbase.
You don’t think Bass would improve any contender’s pen? He might be the best reliever available right now
Pitching for a 2nd division team in games that don’t matter is a LOT different than pitching for a 1st division team destined for the playoffs. Pass.
@Bill M
How could you have swallowed the troll bait?
FYI – @You Can Put It In The Books is formerly known as @MetsFan22
He baited you in. I will say though, that he is right about our bullpen sucks. Although he might be wrong about nobody wanting them because Bass. Floro and Okert have put up nice stats in manipulated situations. I’m hoping that whoever looks at them don’t look deeper into their performances. They are like having a car that’s a lemon that you let people see you drive around the block in cold weather so it doesn’t start sputtering or overheating. That’s what Bass and Okert are exactly like.
A’s have a pretty good Lefty reliever named Sam Moll. 1.72 ERA in 31.1 Innings.
He’s a decent bullpen piece but so far he’s been pretty situational, a nice add but not gonna solve a setup man or closer deficiency.
Twins system is weak; even after the berrios trade. All they got is Royce Lewis that looks to be a sure thing. Canterino is on track to be on big league squad come playoffs so why trade a piece you need this season ?
Mahle for Lewis straight up….reds shouldn’t trade Castillo straight up for Lewis. Dont seem like these clubs are a good fit.
A’s would most like do montas for Lewis though.
Mahle for Lewis straight up seems fair to me – done deal…!
Ha
I think the Twins need any kind of serviceable pitching! They are not a bad team but are lucky to be in the AL Central.
They’d best enjoy it now. Some of the Guardians youngsters are up and breaking in, more through the rest of the season and next season.
Swap out Lewis for Correa next year and we’re good to go(I know he’s not as sure a thing as Correa is) This Twins team is young and under control already. Last year was a fluke
This is Twins Territory!!!
Twinkies should be carrying an IOU from Preller and the Padres.
Twins sent
$6.6 MM, Brent Rooker AND Taylor Rogers – he of 28 SAVES so far in 2022 to the Padres
AND RECEIVED BACK
Injured Arm Chris Paddack who is out for 2022 and a good sized chunk of 2023 with Tommy John Surgery, Emilio Pagan, who has already imploded as the Twins closer and been relegated to low leverage and garbage pitching opportunities along with the ever mysterious “Player To Be Named Later”.
That PTBNL had better be one HELL OF A PROSPECT for stench from this trade not to linger around the Twins Organization for MANY, MANY YEARS. !!
Maybe the Twins can cash in the IOU from the San Francisco Giants for the trade three years ago that brought the Twins lame armed Sam Dyson.
All that fine, upstanding individual cost the Twins were three players STILL PLAYING PRO BASEBALL:
Prelander Berroa, Jaylin Davis and Kai-Wei Teng.
I know none of those 3 is setting the baseball world on fire,
But even one of them is better than what the Twins got stuck with.
And in typical “Minnesota Nice” fashion,; they never raised a stink to the League or the Giants about how the Twins got SCREWED due to receiving DAMAGED GOODS !!
That FO is in circles and has been for years.
Reds get: prospects #5 Matt Canterino RHP, #15 Emanuel Rodriguez OF, #18 Steve Hajjar LHP, and #28 Yasser Mercedes OF.
Twins get Tyler Mahle RHP
“Ehhhh, no Peg”
Close, but include Lewis and take out the first three and you have a deal…
Teams competing for playoffs and the WS will need to overpay for any SP who can move the needle and compete every game and give team a chance to win. Mahle fits that. All GM’s know this. It’s not like you are making a run of the mill even for even kind of trade. It boils down to how much any said team wants to really go for winning now. The team that gives that extra player is the one who will land a Montos, Castillo or Mahle. Reds will pretty much get what they want within reason for these two it just boils down to who offers the most. That’s the price you pay when you are playing for all the marbles.
As a Marlins fan, I for one can’t wait to see Bass and Okert wearing other uniforms. If we actually get decent prospects for them, that would be a major bonus.
I say get rid of any big league reliever we have that anyone would take, especially the ones with any value. I’ve been saying this for years though, and they almost never do it b/c its more important for them to have relievers to help them lose, than get value for when they actually need to win, and then they’ll usually give those same players away for nothing later on, when they actually do need the help in that area, and just go I ti the season with nothing, like these last couple of years…
The idea of trading Lopez is ridiculous, as I said in the other article, but maybe worth considering for Miranda, Steer, Wallner, a pitching prospect, and a throw in. Throw in 1 or 2 of the bullpen arms, and maybe add something else in there too, but they never get any value in deals, and if they’re stupidly trading Lopez right now, it better be for a lot
Instead they should be focused on moving other pieces, such as Aguilar, any bullpen arm anyone would take with any value, Stallings, maybe even Wendle and Rojas, and if they can magically get rid of Garcia somehow, among other things I previously mentioned