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Tyler Mahle Can Push The Rangers Over The Tax Line

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The Rangers clearly want to avoid the competitive balance tax in 2025. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported as much way back in October and owner Ray Davis confirmed that plan to Grant in January.

There are likely a few reasons for the club taking this route. The Rangers were one of several clubs which had a broadcast deal with Main Street Sports, formerly known as the Diamond Sports Group. As that company was going through bankruptcy, several clubs saw their contracts fall apart. Some of those organizations renegotiated new deals with the company but with lower fees. Other wound up with the league running their broadcasts.

The Rangers took a different approach and decided to launch their own regional sports network (RSN). Several big market clubs own RSNs, either in whole or in part, and many of them are doing well financially. The Rangers may have taken a smart route in the long run but it also might take some time to get it set up from scratch.

With that uncertain financial situation, the club decided it would be a good time to reset its CBT status after paying the tax in 2023 and 2024. Teams face increasing tax rates for paying the CBT in consecutive years. A team that avoids the tax in one year can then go into the following year as a “first-time” payor. Most teams like to limbo under the line from time to time, just to go back to square one.

But the Rangers still wanted to compete. They signed multiple players this offseason, including Nathan Eovaldi, Joc Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, Patrick Corbin, Kevin Pillar and a whole bunch of relievers. In the end, they came close to the line without going over it, at least according to publicly available metrics. RosterResource currently pegs them at $236.4MM, less than $5MM from the $241MM base threshold. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them even closer at $237.8MM. Those are just estimates but they are probably close to accurate, given that the club wanted to be a bit under.

However, a club’s CBT number isn’t calculated until the end of the season, with any in-season developments being factored in. That includes contract bonuses/incentives for guys already on the club. Any players added midseason, such as in deadline trades, would also count.

That will be a situation worth watching in the coming months as the Rangers are currently atop the American League West with a 14-10 record. Assuming they stay in the race into the month of July, they should be deadline buyers. But if they want to stay under the tax, they may need their moves to be revenue neutral, or they might even need to move some money off their books.

Creeping just barely over the line wouldn’t lead to a massive tax bill. The club would be a third-time payor and subject to a 50% base tax rate. A hypothetical overage of $1MM would only lead to $500K in taxes, which is nothing for a baseball club. But it would mean the club would also face a 50% base tax rate in 2026, whereas ducking under the line this year and becoming a “first-time” payor means a 20% base tax rate next year. Avoiding the tax also changes the penalties and compensation for qualifying offer situations, providing another incentive to a team to stay under the line if they are near it.

In short, the CBT number is a living, breathing thing which will be moving throughout the year and it should have a real impact on the club’s deadline approach. There are many players with bonuses in their contract, but Tyler Mahle is the most notable with $5MM. Assuming the calculations of the club’s current CBT number are correct, that means he can single-handedly push them over the line.

Mahle was coming off May 2023 Tommy John surgery when the Rangers signed him to a back-loaded deal heading into 2024. It was a two-year, $22MM guarantee, with the Rangers knowing they likely wouldn’t get much in 2024. As such, they only paid him $5.5MM in the first year, followed by $16.5MM in 2025 with $5MM also available in incentives.

As expected, the Rangers didn’t get much from Mahle last year. He came off the injured list in August and made just three starts before some shoulder tightness put him back on the IL again. He stayed there for the remainder of the campaign.

Now in 2025, the Rangers seem to be getting what they hoped for. Mahle has been healthy and also in excellent form. He has a 0.68 earned run average though his first five starts. There’s a bit of luck in there from a .156 batting average on balls in play and 90.9% strand rate but he’s been a big part of their early-season success regardless.

The only downside for the Rangers is that Mahle’s bonuses are very achievable. MLBTR has learned that he gets an extra $500K for getting to 100 innings, $1MM each at 110, 120 and 130 innings, then $1.5MM at 140 innings.

He’s not a lock to earn the full $5MM, as he only has one season in his career where he got to 140 innings. He was still getting optioned to the minors at times in 2018 and 2019 and then fully established himself during the shortened 2020 season, before logging 180 frames in 2021. Shoulder troubles capped him at 120 2/3 in 2022, and then the aforementioned Tommy John surgery limited him in the following two seasons. Still, with the Rangers so close to the line, it could be a notable development even if he gets into triple digits and nudges them closer a million or two.

If he stays healthy, he would unlock the full $5MM easily. The Rangers might be tempted to back off his workload, as they did with Andrew Heaney in 2023. Heaney had a $13MM player option for 2024, which would bump up to $20MM if he hit 150 innings in 2023. The Rangers moved him to the bullpen to prevent that from happening, with Heaney finishing the year at 147 1/3 innings.

Doing the same with Mahle might be tricky if he continues pitching well. The Rangers have Cody Bradford, Jon Gray and Jack Leiter on the injured list. Kumar Rocker has a 6.38 ERA through four starts this year. Corbin is holding his own right now but hasn’t had an ERA under 5.00 in a full season since 2019. Jacob deGrom and Eovaldi are out to good starts but each is in his mid-30s with a notable injury track record. In short, this team might need Mahle more than the 2023 Rangers needed Heaney.

There are other players who could also factor in to lesser degrees. Luke Jackson is the second most notable after Mahle, as he is earning a $1.5MM base salary but could earn as much as $4MM via incentives, an extra $2.5MM. He can unlock $75K for pitching in 20 games, $100K at 25, $125 at 30, $150K at 35, $175K at 40, $225K at 45, $250K at 50, $300 at 55 and $350K at 60. That’s potentially an extra $1.75MM just for appearances. There’s another $750K for games finished: $50K for 25, $100K for 30, $150K for 35, $200K for 40 and $250K for 45. He has taken over the club’s closer role in the early going and already has nine games finished and ten appearances overall.

Corbin has batches of bonuses based both on innings pitched and relief appearances, so he should get paid some extra money as long as he’s healthy, regardless of which role the Rangers have him in. He gets $100K at 40 and 55 innings, $150K at 70 and 85, $200K at 100 and 115, $250K at 130, 145 and 160, then $350K at 170. He also gets $100K for 35 relief appearances, $150K for 40, $200K for 45, $250K for 50, $300K for 55. He’s in the rotation for now and those relief appearance bonuses are unlikely to be a factor, but he could certainly earn more money based on innings pitched. Getting to 170 innings pitched and unlocking all the bonuses would be an extra $2MM.

Chris Martin can earn an extra $150K by getting to 45 innings pitched this year and again at 50 frames, followed by $200K at 55 innings. Hoby Milner can get an extra $100K at 35 and then 45 innings, then an extra $150K at 55 and 65. Jacob Webb is making $1.25MM this year but can get that to $1.5MM via incentives worth $250K. MLBTR has learned that Webb gets $50K at 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 innings pitched. Josh Sborz can unlock an extra $25K at five innings, $50K at 10, $75K at 15, $100K at 20. He underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss at least the first half of the season.

deGrom and Eovaldi have the same awards bonuses. They can earn an extra $250K for winning the Cy Young this year, as well as $200K, $150K, $100K or $50K for finishing second, third, fourth or fifth in the voting. They can also get $150K for winning World Series MVP, as well as $100K for getting an All-Star selection, a Gold Glove award, or LCS MVP. Pederson can get an extra $150K for winning MVP, $100K for an All-Star selection or World Series MVP, plus $50K for for a Silver Slugger or LCS MVP.

All of those bonuses could nudge the Rangers closer to the line or even over it, which will make for an interesting balancing act this summer. As mentioned, they will almost certainly be looking for upgrades as the deadline rolls around but they might also have to move some money around if they continue to plan on avoiding the tax.

Pederson is out to an awful start, so maybe they try to flip him somewhere else, though they would surely have to attach prospect talent in order to convince another club to absorb his contract. He is earning $13MM this year and will be owed $18.5MM next year. He can opt out after 2025 with the club able to override that by picking up a two-year option at $18.5MM annually for 2026 and 2027. If he continues struggling, he will obviously not take that opt-out.

Gray is making $13MM this year, the final season of his contract. He has been on the injured list all season due to a wrist fracture and it’s unclear when he’ll be back. It’s possible the Rangers won’t need him in the rotation once he’s healthy, depending on how others are performing. His deal has an AAV of $14MM, so trading him just ahead of the deadline could shave almost $5MM off the club’s CBT number. However, doing so would subtract from the club’s rotation depth. His trade value will also depend on how he heals up and performs in the coming months.

There are a great many factors at play here, but taking them all into consideration, it feels as though the Rangers are going to be right near the edge. If they abandon their desire to avoid the tax, that could simplify a lot. But if not, they will have to be watching all these numbers in the coming months.

Photos courtesy of Jerome Miron and Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images

Cody Bradford To Start Season On Injured List

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TODAY: Bradford won’t throw for at least four weeks, Young told Kennedi Landry and other reporters today.  This new timeline likely sidelines Bradford until well into May, as he’ll need plenty of time to rebuild his arm strength once he is cleared to throw.

MARCH 13: Rangers left-hander Cody Bradford is going to start the season on the 15-day injured list. Manager Bruce Bochy passed the news along to reporters, including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. The southpaw has had some soreness in his throwing elbow lately. Thankfully, a recent MRI came back clean, but the club will shut him down for ten days to see how he reacts.

The timeline is fairly uncertain apart from that, as it will depend how Bradford feels after his shutdown period. If he is cleared to throw again in ten days, he will presumably need a few rehab outings to get back into game shape. IL stints can be backdated three days, so it’s theoretically possible Bradford could rejoin the club 12 days into the season if he’s healthy by then, though no one really knows how possible that is.

“I can’t tell you if this is something that’s going to linger and last longer than a day or two to get the soreness knocked out,” president of baseball operations Chris Young said. “We did take the necessary steps in terms of evaluating. He’s been in touch with Dr. [Keith] Meister [team physician] back in Texas. We are going to shut him down for a few days and see how this goes. Hopefully the time off will allow it to calm down. But anytime the pitcher has pain in the elbow, it’s concerning.”

Over the past two years, Bradford logged 132 1/3 innings for the Rangers, allowing 4.28 earned runs per nine. Last year, a low back strain cost him most of the first half but he finished the year having made 13 starts and one relief appearance, posting a 3.54 ERA. His 22.7% strikeout rate was around league average while his 4.2% walk rate was excellent. That would have lined him up for a rotation spot this year if he were healthy, but he’ll have to focus on his health for the time being.

The Rangers have another starter with a nebulous timeline. Tyler Mahle was scratched from a start earlier this week due to forearm soreness. Like Bradford, his MRI came back clean. He is expected to throw again in a few days, so perhaps his situation is a bit less serious than that of Bradford, though more updates will likely be forthcoming in the next week or so.

For the Opening Day rotation, the Rangers have three spots taken by Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Jacob deGrom. Mahle will have a fourth spot if he can get in game shape in the next couple of weeks. That leaves one or perhaps two spots for Jack Leiter and/or Kumar Rocker.

Between the two prospects and former Vanderbilt rotation mates, Rocker finished 2024 with more steam. He came back from Tommy John surgery and tossed 36 2/3 innings in the minors with a 1.96 ERA, 39.6% strikeout rate, 3.6% walk rate and 52.6% ground ball rate. He then posted a 3.86 ERA in his first three big league starts. Leiter, meanwhile, had an 8.83 ERA in his first 35 2/3 MLB innings.

But Leiter has had the stronger showing in camp, with a 2.53 ERA over his four appearances. His 14.6% walk rate is certainly high but he’s also punched out 31.7% of batters faced in that small sample. Rocker allowed eight earned runs in two official spring innings, though as detailed by Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News, he then pitched in an unofficial backfield game which went much better. If Mahle is healthy, the Rangers might have to make a tricky decision between the two, though both might nab rotation spots if Mahle will also need to miss some time.

Rangers’ MRIs On Mahle, Bradford Come Back Clean

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March 12: Mahle’s MRI came back clean, tweets Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. The plan will be for him to get back on the mound within the next few days.

Texas had another injury scare pop up when southpaw Cody Bradford reported elbow soreness, but he’s also received a clean MRI, president of baseball operations Chris Young announced this morning (via Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News). He’ll still be shut down from throwing for the next four to five days in hopes that the discomfort subsides, but the imaging seems to have ruled out a severe injury.

March 11: The Rangers scratched right-hander Tyler Mahle from today’s scheduled Cactus League start with what the team termed “forearm soreness,” per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Rangers called the move precautionary, but forearm discomfort is always an ominous development for a starting pitcher — particularly one who’s still working toward his first full season since 2023 Tommy John surgery. At this time, the team has not planned an MRI, per Victory’s Jared Sandler.

Mahle, 30, started five games for the Twins in 2023 and pitched quite well before an elbow impingement and flexor strain prompted a four-week shutdown. Not even two weeks later, Minnesota announced that Mahle would require Tommy John surgery, ending his 2023 campaign.

Mahle became a free agent at season’s end, and the Rangers signed him to a two-year, $22MM deal. It’s a backloaded contract — $5.5MM in 2024, $16.5MM in 2025 — reflecting the idea that the hope was for Mahle to pitch a bit late in 2024 and be a full-fledged member of the 2025 starting staff. It was a heavier commitment than is typical for starters who sign two-year deals while they’re on the mend from UCL reconstruction in the first place, and the fact that Mahle pitched only 12 2/3 frames last year makes the commitment all the more substantial.

At his best, Mahle was an underrated mid-rotation arm with an air of further upside. Home runs plagued him frequently during his early days with the Reds, and it comes as no surprise that his splits away from the launching pad known as Great American Ball Park were far more encouraging than his output at home. Mahle showed plenty of ability to miss bats and posted roughly average walk rates for most of his career.

A healthy Mahle would slot into the middle of a boom-or-bust Texas rotation that’s rife with talented arms and even more packed with questions. Jacob deGrom was baseball’s most dominant arm until injuries derailed his mid-30s. He’s pitched 197 1/3 innings since 2021. Nathan Eovaldi was excellent in his first two seasons with the Rangers but has already had a pair of Tommy John procedures in his career. Jon Gray has been on the injured list in each of the past six seasons. Cody Bradford missed about half of the 2024 season with a back injury. Jack Leiter, who started in place of Mahle today, is a former No. 2 overall pick who has struggled immensely in the big leagues (8.83 ERA, 35 2/3 innings) and through much of his pro career in the minors. Former Vanderbilt teammate Kumar Rocker has surpassed Leiter in terms of prospect stature, but he’s less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery himself.

If Mahle ultimately needs some downtime, the Rangers can still go with a rotation including Eovaldi, deGrom, Gray, Bradford and one of Leiter/Rocker. Prospect Emiliano Teodo is also on the 40-man roster but the club intrigued by the possibility of him in a relief role, while non-roster candidates in camp include Adrian Houser, David Buchanan, Dane Acker and Caleb Boushley.

Rangers Select Matt Duffy, Promote Dustin Harris

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The Rangers made a handful of moves before tonight’s series opener in Oakland. Texas selected veteran infielder Matt Duffy onto the roster and recalled outfielder/infielder Dustin Harris for what’ll be his big league debut. The Rangers also activated reliever Josh Sborz from the 15-day injured list.

Texas placed third baseman Josh Jung on the 10-day IL, optioned lefty reliever Walter Pennington and put utilityman Ezequiel Duran on the paternity list. Tyler Mahle moved from the 15-day to the 60-day IL in a procedural move to open a 40-man roster spot for Duffy. Texas had already shut Mahle down on account of shoulder soreness.

The 33-year-old Duffy gets a brief opportunity to return to the majors. Duffy has been in Triple-A since signing a minor league deal in Spring Training. The veteran infielder hasn’t produced much offensively, turning in a .218/.296/.280 slash across 216 plate appearances in the Pacific Coast League. Texas was out of healthy infielders on the 40-man roster, though, so they’ll give Duffy a shot to play in the big leagues for a ninth season. He’ll back up Marcus Semien, Josh Smith and Jonathan Ornelas for the final six games of the year. Duffy will be a free agent at the start of the offseason and will be in line for another minor league contract somewhere.

Harris, 25, has a bit of third base experience himself. He has started 12 games there with Triple-A Round Rock this season. He’s primarily an outfielder, logging more than 900 frames between left and center field. The left-handed hitter carries a .272/.358/.391 slash with 10 longballs across 564 trips to the plate. That’s minimal power production for the hitter-friendly PCL, but Harris has stolen 35 bases and has strong plate discipline numbers over his minor league career.

Texas added Harris to their 40-man roster over the 2022-23 offseason. They’ve remained intrigued enough by his physical tools to keep him on the roster even while he was on optional assignment in the minors. Baseball America ranked Harris as the #11 prospect in the system on its midseason update. He could make his MLB debut against the organization that drafted him. Harris was an 11th-round pick by the A’s in 2019. Oakland traded him to the Rangers the following summer in a deadline deal for lefty Mike Minor.

Jung’s season comes to a close because of right wrist discomfort. The All-Star third baseman broke his wrist on a hit-by-pitch in the first week of the season. He underwent surgery that sidelined him until the end of July. Jung hasn’t played up to his 2023 level since returning and he’ll finish the year with a .264/.298/.421 slash in 46 games. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote this week that Jung will visit a specialist on Thursday to determine the source of his ongoing discomfort. He’ll hope for a mostly healthy offseason.

Jon Gray Done For Season Due To Foot Injury

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Rangers right-hander Jon Gray is done for the season due to a foot injury. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was among those to relay the news on X from manager Bruce Bochy. Gray is not yet on the injured list but will presumably be placed there shortly. Righty Tyler Mahle is also “pretty much shut down,” according to Bochy, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com on X.

The Rangers are out of contention at this point, so there’s little reason for any individual player to push through an injury. They are 65-73 and 9.5 games back of a playoff spot with just a few weeks left to play. At this point, there’s nothing to suggest Gray’s foot issue will impact his 2025 campaign, but it seems he will sit out what’s left of the 2024 season. Mahle has already been on the IL for about two weeks due to shoulder stiffness, but it appears he may not have enough time to ramp back up before the schedule is done.

That doesn’t matter much in the short term because, as mentioned, the club is effectively done in the context of the current campaign. But taken in aggregate, the club may have some concerns with next year’s rotation. Both Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney are slated for free agency this winter. Nathan Eovaldi is likely to be joining them. He needs to pitch 16 more innings this year to unlock a $20MM player option for 2025. But even if he does open up that player option, it would be logical for him to turn it down and head to the open market in search of a lengthier deal with a larger guarantee.

The core of next year’s rotation, on paper, consists of Gray, Mahle and Jacob deGrom. Gray has only thrown 102 2/3 innings this year as he made two separate stints to the IL due to a right groin strain. Now this foot injury will prevent him from adding to that total. Both Mahle and deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery last summer and have been working back to health this year. Mahle made three starts, logging 12 2/3 innings, before heading back to the IL with the aforementioned shoulder soreness. deGrom hasn’t yet pitched at the big league level but is currently on a rehab assignment and could be back in the majors before the season is out.

That leaves the club going into 2025 with a rotation nucleus consisting of three guys who will be coming off incomplete seasons due to injuries. Cody Bradford, Dane Dunning and Jack Leiter figure to be in the mix for jobs, but Bradford and Dunning also missed time due to injury this year. With Bradford, a low back strain limited him to 56 innings in the majors. Dunning made two separate trips to the IL due to shoulder problems and logged 90 1/3 innings. He’s currently on optional assignment. Leiter still has just five big league outings under his belt and an ERA of 11.78 in those.

Kumar Rocker is looking good in the minors but is also coming back from a 2023 Tommy John surgery, like deGrom and Mahle. His numbers have been great this year, a 1.71 ERA, but in just 31 2/3 innings. He’s at the Triple-A level now and is technically close to major league readiness, but it’s unclear how much the Rangers can realistically expect him to provide next year.

Taken all together, there’s plenty of rotation uncertainty going into 2025, so it should be a priority for the Rangers this winter. For the rest of the season, they will have a rotation of Eovaldi, Heaney, Bradford and Leiter. With Gray heading to the IL, perhaps Dunning will be recalled from his optional assignment. Or the club also has veterans José Ureña and Chase Anderson currently in their bullpen for long relief work, with either of them candidates to make some spot starts down the stretch.

Rangers To Place Tyler Mahle On Injured List

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Rangers manager Bruce Bochy informed the club’s beat today that right-hander Tyler Mahle is going to be placed on the 15-day injured list with some shoulder stiffness. Righty Jon Gray will be reinstated from his own IL stint in a corresponding move. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com was among those who relayed the news on X.

Mahle, now 29, underwent Tommy John surgery last summer just before hitting free agency for the first time in his career. The Rangers then signed him to a two-year, $22MM deal, knowing that they wouldn’t be able to count on him to join the club until some point in the middle of the 2024 season at the earliest. He was on the IL until two weeks ago and has since made three starts. He went five innings in the first of those, then four and two thirds, followed by just three innings in Sunday’s game.

It’s unclear if the shoulder was bothering him in his last outing or has been nagging at him since. While he was removed after just three innings, he also allowed four earned runs on six hits while recording just one strikeout, so his removal might simply have been about his performance rather than his health.

Shoulder issues have been a problem for him before, as he only made six starts after July 2 in the 2022 season due to a strain and some inflammation. Between those shoulder issues and his recent Tommy John layoff, it’s been three straight seasons of having a truncated workload.

The Rangers have fallen back in the standings lately and are now 11 games back of the Astros in the West and 12.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. Both the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus give them just a 0.4% chance of cracking the postseason at this point.

With the club’s season on the ropes, they can make their decisions based on optimizing results next year. Ideally, Mahle would be building up his workload since he hasn’t pitched much in recent years, but pitching through an injury would run the risk of aggravating a shoulder that has given him problems in the past, so it seems the club has decided a breather is the best decision for now. Assuming the issue isn’t major, perhaps he can return for the final few weeks and log some innings in September.

Going forward, the club’s rotation could be facing notable changes. Jacob deGrom is starting a rehab assignment this week and Max Scherzer will be as well, per Landry on X. When those two come back, they will likely slot into the rotation with Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney, with Cody Bradford and Dane Dunning also in the mix and perhaps Mahle coming back down the line.

Looking ahead to next year, Scherzer and Heaney are impending free agents with Eovaldi perhaps heading to the open market along with them. Eovaldi’s contract has a conditional $20MM player option that he unlocks if he totals 300 innings pitched over 2023 and 2024 or finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting this year. Even if he unlocks that option, which is possible since he’s at 271 innings since the start of last year, he might turn it down and elect free agency since he’s having a strong season and could look for a bigger guarantee in free agency.

Without those three, the Texas rotation for 2025 projects to include deGrom, Mahle and Gray. The latter two, as mentioned, are coming off lengthy Tommy John rehabs and could have workload concerns next year. Bradford has also missed significant time this year, due to a low back strain, and only has 14 big league starts to his name. Dunning has often been in the club’s swingman/sixth starter role, moving between the bullpen and rotation as needed. Prospects Jack Leiter and Owen White are on the 40-man roster but both have ongoing control issues.

The Rangers are still the reigning World Series champions for a few more months but the title defense has obviously not been what they had in mind. Perhaps that will lead them to shake up their rotation mix in the offseason, as there’s plenty of uncertainty in next year’s group.

What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Rangers Designate Andrew Knizner For Assignment

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The Rangers announced that right-hander Tyler Mahle has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. In corresponding moves, the club optioned left-hander Walter Pennington and designated catcher Andrew Knizner for assignment.

Knizner, 29, signed with the Rangers in the offseason after being non-tendered by the Cardinals. Texas gave him a one-year deal with a $1.825MM salary, knowing that he could be retained via arbitration beyond this season as well.

Unfortunately, the club has been struggling to get much production from the catcher position this year. Jonah Heim hit .258/.317/.438 last year for a 103 wRC+ but he has dropped to a line of .232/.277/.346 and a 73 wRC+ this year. The falloff from Knizner has been even more drastic as he slashed .241/.288/.424 with the Cards last year for a 92 wRC+ but he is hitting .167/.183/.211 this year for a wRC+ of 4.

Perhaps some of that can be attributed to a .206 batting average on balls in play but Knizner has also drawn walks at a paltry 1.1% clip and hit just one home run in his 93 plate appearances, compared to the ten he hit in 241 trips to the plate last year. The Rangers fortified their catching corps by acquiring Carson Kelly from the Tigers prior to the deadline and then optioned Knizner to Triple-A, though he has now been bumped off the 40-man roster altogether.

With the trade deadline now passed, the Rangers will have to put Knizner on waivers in the coming days. Despite his rough season, he could perhaps garner interest based on his past performance and contract status.

He has one option left and therefore a claiming club wouldn’t need to give him an active roster spot right away, though he would be out of options next year in that scenario. He has not yet spent 20 days on optional assignment this year, so it’s possible he could retain that option next year if he either doesn’t get claimed or is kept in the majors by some other club. He also came into this season with four years and 21 days of service time, putting him just shy of the five-year mark at present. If any club felt especially bullish about Knizner’s future, they could claim him, keep him on optional assignment for the rest of the year and then control him via arbitration for two more years.

As for Mahle, he will be taking the mound for the first time in over a year. He required Tommy John surgery in May of last year, just a few months from free agency. The Rangers signed him to a two-year, $22MM deal with the knowledge that they would have to wait for his arrival.

With Mahle and Jacob deGrom both on their way back from surgeries last year, the club felt good enough about their rotation depth to deal Michael Lorenzen to the Royals prior to the deadline. But both Jon Gray and Max Scherzer recently landed on the IL, thinning the group out further. As of right now, the group consists of Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, José Ureña and Cody Bradford, with Dane Dunning in a long-relief role in the bullpen.

Rangers Place Max Scherzer On Injured List

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The Rangers announced that right-hander Max Scherzer has been placed on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder fatigue. Left-hander Walter Pennington was recalled in a corresponding move.

It’s been a challenging season for Scherzer, who just celebrated his 40th birthday last week. He underwent back surgery in the offseason and initially hoped to return some time in the middle to the end of May, but then he was delayed by some nerve irritation in his thumb and didn’t make his season debut until June 23.

He has since made eight starts for the club but questions surrounding his health popped up recently. He only lasted two innings on July 20 and later told the media he was experiencing arm fatigue, with Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News among those to relay the message along on X. He felt good enough to make his next start on July 25, tossing six innings against the White Sox. But on July 30, he only lasted four innings and 68 pitches against the Cardinals with manager Bruce Bochy relaying that arm fatigue was again present, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News on X.

All year long, it has seemed like the Rangers would have a rotation that would get gradually healthier over the course of the year. Scherzer was coming back from his back surgery while Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle were lined up to join the mix in the second half of the season after recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery. The reigning World Series champions were hoping to ride a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford until that trio returned.

That was sort of going according to plan when Scherzer returned back in June but has kind of gone off the rails since. Dunning was on the IL for most of July due to shoulder soreness and recently returned in a relief role. Bradford missed a few months due to a low back strain but, like Dunning, returned recently in a relief role. Gray hit the IL due to a groin strain last week. The club felt good enough about the rotation depth to trade Lorenzen to the Royals for Pennington prior to the deadline.

With Scherzer now out of the mix, the healthy rotation is down to Heaney and Eovaldi. Bochy says Mahle could be back and start on Tuesday, per McFarland on X. José Ureña has been oscillating between the rotation and bullpen this year and is starting tonight’s game. Tomorrow’s starter is still listed as TBD with Eovaldi scheduled for Sunday. Perhaps Dunning or Bradford will have to take the lead tomorrow as part of a bullpen game.

All together, it’s a less than ideal situation as they try to cobble a rotation together for the next few weeks. The club is 52-57 and eight games back in the Wild Card picture. Some struggles from the Mariners and Astros mean that the Rangers are only 4.5 games away from the West division lead but they would have to catch both clubs in order to nab that spot. Doing so with a patchwork rotation for the next weeks will be tricky. The trade deadline has now passed, limiting the options for finding external help.

It’s also less than ideal for Scherzer personally, as he is heading towards free agency at the end of this season. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post hinted on X tonight that the veteran righty is uncertain how much longer he can keep pushing his body to its limits. Perhaps he would consider retiring after this season, which would be understandable given his age and this mounting ailments. But he also has a reputation as a fierce competitor so it’s anybody’s guess as to when he’ll decide to hang up his cleats. In either case, he’ll undoubtedly be doing everything he can to get over his arm issues and find a way back on the mound in the coming months.

Latest On Rangers’ Rotation, Trade Possibilities

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The Rangers have patched together their rotation for much of the season as they anticipate the returns of veterans Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom. Scherzer has already returned. Mahle is set to make his fifth minor league rehab start today and should make his Rangers debut before long. It’ll be a bit longer before deGrom makes it back, but he tossed a 40-pitch bullpen just yesterday, per Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com. Left-hander Cody Bradford is on a minor league rehab assignment and expected to return soon, though Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that he’ll work out of the bullpen upon his return. Texas reinstated righty Dane Dunning from the injured list earlier today, too. He’s in the ’pen for now but could move back to a starting role depending on how the next week goes.

What once was a starting pitching hodgepodge looks increasingly enviable. If Mahle is cleared to return after today’s start, he’ll join Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney and Dunning as viable rotation options, with Bradford in the bullpen and deGrom looming on the horizon. That’s nine MLB-caliber starters, to say nothing of veteran starter Jose Ureña (who started six games but is in the bullpen presently).

With so many options suddenly at their fingertips, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Rangers trading from that stockpile of arms — even as they narrow the deficit in the postseason hunt. Texas has won four straight games. The Mariners have lost three straight. The Rangers now sit only three games back of the first-place Astros in the West and are just 5.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt. They’re not going to operate as a pure seller, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that Lorenzen or perhaps even Gray could be moved before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Lorenzen, 32, signed with the Rangers on a one-year, $4.5MM deal in spring training. It was a bargain price for a veteran righty coming off a solid season, and he’s proven to be well worth the investment. He’s pitched 97 innings over the course of 17 starts and turned in a 3.53 ERA. Lorenzen’s 18.5% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate both leave plenty to be desired and point to some likely ERA regression, but he’s been precisely the type of veteran rotation stabilizer the Rangers hoped to be acquiring when signing him.

As of deadline day, Lorenzen will have just $1.5MM of that base salary yet to be paid out. He’s already picked up $800K of innings-based incentives and will get another $200K when he reaches 100 innings, likely in his next start. Assuming that comes with the Rangers — he’s their probable starter Saturday — a new team would be on the hook for the remaining portion of his base and additional incentives he’d unlock by reaching 120 innings ($300K), 140 innings ($350K), 160 innings ($400K) and 180 innings ($450K). He’s on pace to barely reach that final milestone.

At most, a team adding Lorenzen would pay around $1.5MM in base salary and an additional $1.5MM worth of incentives. If Lorenzen is pitching well enough to reach that 180-inning mark, it’d be considered money well spent. If nothing else, a budget-conscious team looking to add a stable starter (e.g. Twins, Guardians) could view Lorenzen as an affordable option.

Gray would be a more surprising trade candidate. He’s in the third season of a four-year, $56MM contract that’s paying $13MM both this year and next. Thus far, he’s posted 94 innings of 3.73 ERA ball on the season. While Gray’s 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career (aside from the shortened 2020 season), his 5.8% walk rate is a career-best mark. He’s still averaging 95 mph with his heater, while his opponents’ chase rate and swinging-strike rate are roughly in line with his 2022-23 marks.

Rosenthal also cites a pair of names the Rangers would prefer to hang onto even as they ponder trading from their rotation depth: Eovaldi and Heaney. The former is well on his way to vesting a $20MM player option for the 2025 season. That option would decrease his trade value — a new team would be stuck with the $20MM in the event of a major, post-trade injury. Beyond that, Eovaldi has been one of the team’s best arms this season, notching a 3.31 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 106 innings. He’d likely be ticketed for their playoff rotation, should they get there. And, even if they don’t, the Rangers might simply hope Eovaldi stays healthy and enjoys pitching in his home state enough that he’d pick up that player option for the 2025 season.

As for Heaney, he’s turned things around after a shaky first season in Texas. The veteran southpaw boasts a 3.60 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in exactly 100 innings. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so one would imagine he’s an on-paper trade candidate in this scenario where Texas deals from its excess. However, the Rangers don’t have an established left-hander in their bullpen. Brock Burke was excellent in 2022 but took a step back in ’23 and was optioned earlier this season after being shelled through 9 2/3 innings. Rookie Jacob Latz has a solid 3.68 ERA in 36 2/3 innings, but he’s walked 13.5% of his opponents. Bradford could possibly fill that role, but he’s yet to return from a stress reaction in his ribcage.

Heaney has experience pitching both as a starter and reliever, including during his time with Texas. He’s throwing well right now but would likely be pushed out of a theoretical postseason rotation. In that setting, he could slide into the bullpen and match up against tough lefties and/or provide multiple innings in long relief.

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