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Twins Claim Joey Wentz

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The Twins announced that they have claimed left-hander Joey Wentz off waivers from the Pirates. The latter club designated him for assignment a few days ago. Wentz is out of options, so the Twins will need to make a corresponding active roster move when he reports to the team. To open a 40-man spot for Wentz, the Twins have transferred righty Pablo López to the 60-day injured list. It was reported last week that López is expected to miss eight to twelve weeks due to a teres major strain.

Wentz, 27, is in his fourth major league season. He was primarily a starting pitcher in 2022 and 2023 but didn’t quite establish himself as a bonafide big league rotation member. At the end of the 2023 season, he had a 5.99 earned run average and had exhausted his final option season.

That pushed him to the bullpen, a role in which he has shown some potential. He tossed 55 1/3 innings out of Detroit’s bullpen last year. The 5.37 ERA wasn’t great, nor was his 10.6% walk rate, but his 23.6% strikeout rate and 42% ground ball rate were pretty close to average. That got him bumped off the roster at the end of August last year.

The Pirates put in a claim and got some encouraging results from Wentz to end the season. He posted a 1.50 ERA in 12 frames after that claim. His walk rate ticked up to 12% but he also struck out 26% of batters faced.

He stuck on Pittsburgh’s roster through the winter and into 2025 with some mixed results so far. His 9.6% walk rate is still a bit high but an improvement for him. He’s also tamped down his home runs, with only 6.5% of fly balls leaving the yard compared to 11.3% last year. His 41.8% ground ball rate is still close to league par but his strikeout rate has dipped to 19.1%.

That got him bumped off Pittsburgh’s roster but the Twins will take a shot on him. Minnesota currently has Danny Coulombe as its only lefty reliever on the active roster, with Kody Funderburk on optional assignment. Wentz will give manager Rocco Baldelli a second southpaw in the relief corps alongside Coulombe, at least for the time being. Given his out-of-options status, Wentz will likely have a tenuous hold on a roster spot unless he takes a step forward.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Pablo Lopez To Miss Multiple Months With Teres Major Strain

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June 5: The Twins formally placed Lopez on the injured list and recalled Festa today, per a club announcement.

June 4: The Twins announced that Pablo López suffered a Grade 2 strain of the teres major in his throwing shoulder. He’s expected to miss eight to 12 weeks. He’ll be shut down from throwing entirely for at least a month before he goes for reevaluation.

López left last night’s start against the A’s after five innings. He reported shoulder discomfort while throwing his warm-up pitches in advance of the sixth. The Twins immediately acknowledged that an injured list stint was inevitable. They were awaiting the results of today’s imaging before making that move. It’s unfortunately significant enough that it’ll cost him the majority of the remaining schedule.

This is the same injury and degree of strain which rotation mate Joe Ryan sustained last August. Ryan went down early in the month and missed the remainder of the season. It didn’t carry into the offseason, and he has returned as strong as ever this year. That’s a source of long-term optimism for López, but it doesn’t change the significant hit to the rotation over the next few months.

It’s the righty’s second, and far more notable, IL stint this year. López had a minimal absence in April due to a hamstring strain. The injuries have interrupted a characteristically strong performance. He sports a 2.82 earned run average across 60 2/3 frames. It would have been his first career sub-3.00 showing if he maintained it all year. He has fanned nearly a quarter of opponents while allowing two or fewer runs in nine of his 11 appearances.

Minnesota has one of the top rotations in the league. They’re fifth in MLB with a 3.43 ERA while ranking eighth with a 23.2% strikeout rate. López, Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack have all performed well. The final spot has been the only weak point. Simeon Woods Richardson was optioned out after allowing more than five earned runs per nine. Zebby Matthews replaced him in the rotation last month. He made his fourth start of the season tonight and carries a 5.21 ERA over 19 innings. He’s missing plenty of bats, though, so he’s a more exciting fifth starter than Woods Richardson has been.

David Festa will get the first crack at plugging López’s rotation spot. He was scratched from a start at Triple-A St. Paul this evening, as first noted by Declan Goff of SKOR North. Festa traveled to Sacramento to meet the big league team. Dan Hayes of The Athletic writes that he will likely go in tomorrow’s series finale to give the rest of the starters an extra day of rest.

The 25-year-old Festa ranked as one of the sport’s better pitching prospects when he was promoted last summer. He allowed a 4.90 ERA over his first 14 MLB appearances. He made a trio of starts early in the season while López was sidelined by the hamstring. Festa managed an impressive 15:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing only three runs through 13 innings. He has pitched well through six Triple-A starts, turning in a 2.83 mark with a near-31% strikeout rate. Hayes notes that he was sidelined for much of May by biceps inflammation, but he has looked sharp in two appearances since returning. He fired five scoreless frames with five strikeouts in his most recent start.

Festa is a high-upside injury replacement. Woods Richardson remains on optional assignment as a depth arm. The rotation depth is a silver lining, but it’s fair to wonder how this impacts the team’s deadline approach. López won’t be back at least into August and could be shelved into September. The Twins are in the thick of a congested AL Wild Card race and six games behind the Tigers in the division.

Twins Place Pablo Lopez On Injured List

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April 11: The Twins announced that Lopez has been placed on the 15-day IL. Festa has been recalled from Triple-A St. Paul in his place and will get the start in tonight’s game.

April 9: The Twins plan to place Pablo López on the 15-day injured list, manager Rocco Baldelli tells reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star-Tribune and Dan Hayes of The Athletic). Minnesota’s Opening Day starter was diagnosed with a Grade One strain of his right hamstring.

A Grade One strain is the least severe. Baldelli indicated the Twins are hopeful that López will be back after a minimal IL stay. He suffered the injury during last night’s appearance in Kansas City. López needed to depart after 4 2/3 innings and 78 pitches. He went for an MRI today which revealed the mild strain. It halts a very strong start to the season. López has allowed six runs (three earned) with 14 strikeouts and two walks over 16 2/3 frames.

This will be the first injured list stint for López since the Twins acquired him from Miami in the swap for Luis Arraez during the 2022-23 offseason. He’s made all 32 starts in each of the past three seasons, in fact. López combined for 379 1/3 innings of 3.87 ERA ball over his first two years in the Twin Cities. He ranked eight in MLB in innings and tied for sixth in starts during that stretch.

The Twins blanked K.C. tonight behind an excellent start from Joe Ryan. They nevertheless have a 4-8 record. Their rotation entered play Wednesday with an MLB-worst 6.26 earned run average. López and Ryan have been excellent, but each of Simeon Woods Richardson, Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober have been hit hard through two starts.

Minnesota hasn’t had the luxury of many early-season off days. Tomorrow will be the halfway point of a stretch of 12 straight game days between April 5-16. Ober will pitch in the series finale with Kansas City. Paddack and Woods Richardson would line up for the first two starts of their weekend set in Detroit. They’ll need someone to step into López’s spot on Sunday.

Zebby Matthews and David Festa are each highly-regarded young pitchers who made their big league debuts last season. Neither player had much success as rookies, but they’re more talented than the sixth and seventh starters for a lot of teams. Matthews, who would be on regular rest for Sunday, has been excellent through his first two turns in Triple-A. He has punched out 13 against one walk while firing 10 innings of two-run ball. Festa has an 8:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio while giving up five earned runs in 8 1/3 frames. If the Twins want to keep both youngsters in the minors, they could reselect swingman Randy Dobnak after running him through outright waivers last week.

Exploring A Potential Pablo Lopez Trade

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It's been a quiet offseason for the Twins as the front office faces payroll constraints for a second straight offseason. Minnesota's signing of Carlos Correa and extension for Pablo Lopez in the 2022-23 offseason -- among other moves -- pushed the club's payroll up into the $150-160MM range. Both deals came just months after owner Jim Pohlad took a step back as his nephew, Joe Pohlad, took on a far more prominent role. That ownership shuffle, coupled with the long-term nature of those deals, made it look like there'd be a lasting bump in payroll.

Clearly, that hasn't been the case. Amid uncertainty regarding the team's television broadcast rights, ownership slashed payroll back down to the $130MM range for the 2024 season. The Twins largely sat out the 2023-24 offseason, with their largest moves coming via the trade market (dealing Jorge Polanco to Seattle) and in the bargain aisle of free agency (a $5.25MM deal for Carlos Santana being their most expensive). At the end of the 2024 season, Joe Pohlad announced his intent to explore a potential sale of the team.

That's led to even more uncertainty and inflexibility with the budget this offseason, as evidenced by the Twins' complete lack of activity. RosterResource projects the Twins' payroll at about $142MM. Ownership would like that back into the $130MM range again. It's expected that at some point they'll trade righty Chris Paddack, whose $7.5MM salary looks quite affordable when juxtaposed with the aggressive market for starters this winter. They'll shop Christian Vazquez but would need to eat some of his $10MM salary. A trade of their excellent utilityman, Willi Castro, could also be explored.

Speculation regarding the possibility of larger-scale deals was inevitable, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said early in the offseason that the team views Correa, Lopez and Byron Buxton as "key" players to the team's 2025 outlook. Falvey has emphasized that the Twins are intent on contending in 2025, even as it looks like he'll be forced to find ways to trim player payroll before making a single addition.

A Correa trade always seemed far-fetched. He's owed $128MM over the next four years and has a full no-trade clause. Buxton also has full no-trade protection. However, the recent report from ESPN's Jeff Passan that the Twins have at least listened to offers on Lopez presents a far more compelling thought exercise. Lopez's contract is teeming with surplus value in a way that isn't true -- or isn't as true, anyway -- of the Twins' other most expensive players.

Trading Lopez would ignite swift backlash from an already frustrated and put-off fanbase. At the same time, the huge return and the potential avenues for restructuring the team in the wake of such a surprising deal are compelling enough that it's understandable if the Twins perform due diligence to at least see what the market might bear.

Let's dive into an admittedly very hypothetical look at why a Lopez trade could actually appeal to the Twins, who could be involved, and how the Twins could proceed (and possibly improve) in the aftermath.

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Twins Have Listened To Trade Offers On Pablo López

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The Twins have listened to trade offers on right-hander Pablo López, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Twins are likely to move him, but it suggests it’s at least possible.

As recently as the middle of November, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the idea of the Twins subtracting a notable player from their roster via a blockbuster trade. He identified López, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton as “key” pieces of the roster that were unlikely to move. “Everyone is always going to ask when you’re a team in the payroll bracket that we are,” Falvey said. “I feel really confident those guys are going to be part of the ability for us to do what we want on the field. They’re going to fuel us hopefully to some of the success we want to have. … I feel really good about those players.”

Despite that public framing, it’s understandable why the front office might at least consider alternative possibilities. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely going to have a payroll around $130MM next year, the same as they had in 2024. RosterResource currently projects them for $142MM in 2025, suggesting they may need to find some cuts.

Guys like Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez have been floated as potential trade candidates who could help the club get down to their preferred level, though neither is likely to have massive trade value. Paddack is going to make $7.5MM next year, the final year on his deal, but he hasn’t been at his sharpest in a while. He had a strong 3.33 earned run average in his 2019 rookie season, but his ERA was closer to 5.00 in the next two seasons. He then missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound in 2024 but finished the year with a 4.99 ERA.

Vázquez also has just one year left on his deal, with a $10MM salary. He’s a strong defender behind the plate but has hit just .222/.265/.322 over the past two seasons. That production translates to a wRC+ of 63, indicating he was 37% worse than league average.

Trading one or both of those players could help the Twins with their budget crunch but likely wouldn’t bring back massive returns. López, on the other hand, should have lots of appeal. He’s set to make $21.5MM in each of the next three years, leaving $64.5MM remaining on his contract.

That’s a very nice price for a pitcher who is going into his age-29 season and has been one of the better hurlers in baseball over the past five years. From 2020 to the present, he has thrown 719 1/3 innings with a 3.70 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 45.6% ground ball rate. FanGraphs has credited him with 14.7 wins above replacement in that time, which puts him 13th out of all pitchers in the majors for that stretch.

The price of starting pitching has been especially strong so far this winter. Nathan Eovaldi just got three years and $75MM. His numbers have been fairly similar to López in recent years but he’s far older, going into his age-35 season. Pitchers like Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Severino have had notably worse results than López/Eovaldi but both got three-year deals, Kikuchi getting a $63MM guarantee and Severino $67MM.

It seems fair to conclude that the strong market might lead to the Twins getting some interesting offers that could at least make them reconsider their stance on López. Of course, the same things that make him appealing to other clubs also make him very valuable in Minnesota. The club can certainly hold onto him and trade guys like Paddack and/or Vázquez, but perhaps they will receive an offer for López that allows them to both get their payroll down to the desired level while also adding a notable return that helps the franchise in the short and long term.

As of now, the rotation group consists of López, Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson. Trading López or Paddack would weaken the group but would also open a spot for young pitchers like Zebby Matthews or David Festa, both of whom debuted in 2024. The Twins also have some non-roster options like Huascar Ynoa and Darren McCaughan in the mix.

Subtracting López is surely not what the front office wants and there’s no indication that they are shopping him around. But the hot starting pitching market seems to be making various clubs ponder trades of starting pitchers a bit harder than they expected to. Names like Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Framber Valdez have somewhat surprisingly been in rumors of late. A team being willing to listen doesn’t mean a trade is going to happen, as shown with Valdez and the Astros, as he is now apparently off the table. However, it’s an interesting twist on the offseason, with free agents like Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea still available.

Falvey Downplays Speculation Regarding Carlos Correa Trade

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With the Twins up for a potential sale and the front office facing payroll restrictions for a second straight offseason, there’s been a natural focus on the ways in which the club could look to reduce spending. Trades of Chris Paddack and Christian Vazquez have long been seen as a possibility, but more recently there’s been at least some national speculation about a more dramatic move. Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently opined that the Yankees or Mets should “test the waters” on the Twins’ willingness to move shortstop Carlos Correa, who has four years and $128MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract (plus another four vesting/club options). Sherman opined last month that the Astros should explore a similar scenario.

Though there’s been no reporting to suggest that the Twins would actually consider such a move, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey apparently still sought to shut down any such speculation. Asking Correa (or any player) to waive a no-trade clause is “not something we’re focused on,” Falvey told Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The recently promoted top Twins exec also called Correa, Pablo Lopez and Byron Buxton “key” members of the roster. “I feel really confident those guys are going to be part of the ability for us to do what we want on the field,” Falvey added.

While Falvey, newly minted general manager Jeremy Zoll and the rest of the front office are clearly working on a tighter budget than they anticipated when signing Correa and extending Buxton (seven years, $100MM) and Lopez (four years, $73.5MM), that doesn’t mean the team is planning to step back or enter any sort of rebuild. Minnesota spent the majority of the season in possession of a playoff spot before an epic September collapse. Injuries to Paddack and Joe Ryan compromised the team’s starting depth, and the lineup went cold in conjunction. It was a disaster outcome, but not one the club feels is indicative of a need to tear things down.

Correa, 30, missed nearly half the 2024 season due to a bout of plantar fasciitis but played at a borderline MVP-caliber level when healthy. His .310/.388/.517 slash was 59% better than league average, by measure of wRC+, and Statcast felt his defense rebounded from a down 2023 showing in a major way. (Defensive Runs Saved was more bearish.) Correa’s 16.6% strikeout rate was a career-low, and he hit 14 homers in 367 plate appearances — just four fewer than he hit in 580 plate appearances during the 2023 season. His two-month absence from July 12 through Sept. 14 played a significant role in the Twins’ late-season deterioration.

Buxton, 31 next month, was limited by injuries once again — as has been the case in nearly every season of his career. Like Correa, he has a full no-trade clause. Also like Correa, he had one of the most productive seasons of his career when on the field in 2024. The former No. 2 overall pick slashed .279/.335/.524 — 42% better than average, per wRC+ — with 18 homers, seven steals and strong defense in 103 games/388 plate appearances. Buxton’s contract pays him $15MM annually through 2028, with a huge slate of incentives tied to playing time and MVP voting. He can earn up to $25.5MM in any given season, but if he ever actually reaches that figure, it’d be because he performed like one of the best players in the entire sport, at which point it’d be a bargain anyhow.

Lopez, 29 in March, is owed $21.75MM in each of the next three seasons. He doesn’t have trade protection in his contract but was listed by Falvey as one of the “key” players he’s not inclined to move even amid payroll constriction. Lopez got out to a rough start in 2024, pitching to an ERA near 5.00 through the season’s first three months before rebounding to more characteristic form down the stretch. Beginning with a dominant 14-strikeout performance in late June, Lopez logged a 2.91 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate in 105 1/3 innings across his final 17 starts.

Gerrit Cole Wins American League Cy Young Award

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As expected, Gerrit Cole is the 2023 Cy Young winner in the American League. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the Yankee star has won the award. Former Minnesota right-hander Sonny Gray was the runner-up, while Toronto’s Kevin Gausman took home third place.

There wasn’t a ton of intrigue, as Cole received all 30 first-place votes. While he’s a six-time All-Star and two-time ERA champion, this is his first career Cy Young. No AL pitcher topped Cole’s 209 innings, while he led Junior Circuit pitchers (minimum 150 innings) with a 2.63 ERA. He was sixth among that group with a 27% strikeout rate and trailed only Gausman and Pablo López with 222 punchouts overall.

That well-rounded dominance made Cole an easy call as the AL’s best pitcher in the eyes of voters. It’s his sixth top five finish and the third time he has been a finalist, as he’d twice before finished as runner-up. Having at least one Cy Young on his résumé could go a long way towards burnishing an eventual Hall of Fame case.

For now, the 33-year-old will look to replicate this year’s success in hopes of leading the Yankees back to the postseason. Despite Cole turning in one of the best seasons of his career, New York floundered midseason and finished barely above .500. Cole will be in the Bronx for at least one more year. He’s headed into year five of a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract. He has the ability to opt out after next season.

Gray received 20 second-place votes to earn the highest Cy Young finish of his career. It was well timed for the three-time All-Star, who hit free agency a couple weeks ago. Gausman secured seven second-place votes and was the most common selection for third. Stray second-place votes went to Luis Castillo and Zach Eflin, although Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish edged out that duo for fourth in overall balloting.

Others to receive at least one vote: López, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Chris Bassitt, Félix Bautista and Chris Martin. The full results are available at the BBWAA website.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

NL Notes: Brewers, Dodgers, Dombrowski

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Back in May, Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio discussed the club’s desire to secure state funding for renovations to American Family Field, the club’s stadium in Milwaukee which is publicly owned and leased to the Brewers. At the time Attanasio mentioned that public officials in the state had indicated that they hope to extend the club’s lease at the stadium, which currently runs through 2030, through at least 2050.

Those efforts passed a significant milestone yesterday, as Jessie Opoien and Tom Daykin of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed yesterday that the Wisconsin state assembly voted 69-27 in support of a measure that would provide $546MM in funding for stadium renovations and improvements, to be paid both through the aforementioned 2050 date. $411MM of that total funding bill would fall to the state of Wisconsin, while the remaining $135MM would be covered by Milwaukee county and the city of Milwaukee. Opoien and Daykin add that the Brewers would provide an additional $100MM toward the financing plan.

As noted in the article, American Family Field is owned by the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District, an agency created by the state that leases the ballpark out to the Brewers. Per the terms of the lease, the state is required to provide the majority of the funding for what Opoien and Daykin describe as “long-term maintenance and renovations” of the park, with winterizing the ballpark noted as one possible renovation under consideration. The pair go on to note that the plan stipulates that the club will be required to designate one home game per month of the regular season as a discount day for residents of Wisconsin.

Passage through the state assembly is far from the final hurdle for the deal, though the bills passed have the support of the relevant executives in Wisconsin governor Tony Evers, Milwaukee mayor Cavalier Johnson, and county executive David Crowley. The next step in the process is for the package to secure passage through the state senate, which Opoien an Daykin note is likely to require changes to help raise money for the funding plan. Still, the deal’s progress is surely encouraging for Brewers fans after rumors of potential relocation following the expiration of the club’s current lease in 2030 began to percolate back in August.

More from around the NL…

  • While discussing the organization’s recent end-of-season press conference, Jack Harris of the LA Times noted that the Dodgers explored trades for right-hander Pablo Lopez and left-hander Jordan Montgomery “over the last year,” though no deal came together with Harris noting that the costs of acquiring either pitcher would’ve been beyond what the Dodgers considered to be fair value. The fact that LA recently pursued a deal for Montgomery is hardly a surprise, given they had previously been reported to have interest in his services at the trade deadline. Lopez, however, is a more noteworthy mention as the last rumors connecting the right-hander, who was shipped from the Marlins to the Twins last offseason, were from the 2022 trade deadline. The Dodgers, of course, saw their starting rotation break down throughout the year due to injuries and under-performance, culminating in Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn combining to allow 13 runs over just 4 2/3 innings of work across their three starts during the NLDS as the club was swept out of the postseason at the hands of the Diamondbacks.
  • Phillies principal owner John Middleton spoke to WEEI’s Rob Bradford recently regarding the club’s pursuit of current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who the club hired following the shortened 2020 season. The hiring has been an unmitigated success to this point, with the Phillies currently ahead 2-0 in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks and well on their way to a possible second consecutive World Series appearance under Dombrowski’s guidance. At the time, however, Middleton notes that Dombrowski was reluctant to leave his position with the Nashville Stars group, which hopes to lure a potential expansion team to Nashville in the near future. Per Middleton, Dombrowski’s initial contract included a clause that allowed him to depart the Phillies in the event that Nashville was successful in luring an expansion team during his tenure in Philadelphia. Dombrowski extended with the club last offseason through the 2027 campaign, though it’s unclear if his new contract contains a similar clause.

Twins Extend Pablo Lopez

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April 21: The Twins formally announced this morning that they’ve signed Lopez to a four-year extension, covering the 2024-27 seasons. FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the contract breaks down in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, an $8MM salary in 2024 and annual salaries of $21.5MM from 2025-27.

April 17: The Twins are keeping their big offseason trade acquisition for the long haul. Minnesota is reportedly in agreement with right-hander Pablo Lopez on a four-year, $73.5MM contract extension. The deal is pending a physical. Lopez is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Lopez, 27, came to the Twins alongside top shortstop prospect Jose Salas and minor league outfielder Byron Chourio in the January trade that sent infielder Luis Arraez to the Marlins. He’s already locked into a $5.45MM salary for the ongoing 2023 season, which is his second of three scheduled arbitration seasons. The new contract with the Twins will buy out Lopez’s final arbitration season and what would’ve been his first three free-agent seasons; once completed, the Twins will have Lopez signed through his age-31 season.

Assuming Lopez would’ve landed somewhere in the $10MM range for his final arbitration season, the contract effectively buys out his first three free-agent years for a combined $63MM, give or take a bit. The deal values Lopez at somewhere around $20-21MM per free-agent season. That annual range takes him past the AAVs that mid-rotation arms like Taijuan Walker ($18MM) and Jameson Taillon ($17MM) agreed to this past offseason.

From a structural standpoint, there are some similarities to the recent extension between the Giants and their own top starter, Logan Webb. That $90MM deal, a record for the three-plus service class, also bought out three free-agent seasons. However, Webb’s deal bought out two arbitration seasons, and his first arbitration salary ($4.6MM) topped that of Lopez ($2.425MM), which helps to explain the gap between the final guarantees on the two deals.

Lopez could certainly have gone the year-to-year route, reaching free agency in advance of his age-29 season and perhaps setting himself up for a five- or even six-year deal in the process. Of course, that’d have been a gamble to some extent, given the ever-present risk of injury that’s inherent to all pitchers. That’s particularly notable for Lopez, who has thrice been on the injured list due to right shoulder troubles to this point in his career.

Through his first four starts with the Twins, Lopez has looked like a star. After pitching to a 3.75 ERA in a career-high 32 starts and 180 innings in 2022, he’s surged out to a 1.73 ERA through four starts and 26 innings with the Twins. Lopez’s 95.4 mph average fastball is a career-best mark, and his 33.7% strikeout rate trounces the 23.2% mark he posted in parts of five seasons in Miami. He’s managed to up his velocity and strikeout rate without sacrificing his pinpoint command; this year’s 6.1% walk rate tops the 6.7% mark he posted in his Marlins career.

Much of Lopez’s success to date can be attributed to a newly unveiled sweeper that has thus far befuddled opposing batters. Opponents are batting just .111 against the pitch with a massive 50% whiff rate, per Statcast. Between that and the gains on his fastball, Lopez is unsurprisingly boasting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. It’s only a sample of four starts, of course, but the results have generally exceeded even the most optimistic expectations for the righty. Time will tell whether he can sustain it all over a larger sample — a .236 BABIP and 89.1% strand rate both seem ripe for regression — but the Twins can only be thrilled with their end of that offseason trade.

With Lopez now locked in through at least the 2027 season, he joins Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton among the focal points of the Twins’ core. The Twins control catcher Christian Vazquez, second baseman Jorge Polanco and righty Chris Paddack through the 2025 season, but Correa, Buxton and now Lopez are the only players on guaranteed deals beyond that ’25 campaign. Of course, the Twins will have plenty of core players in arbitration at that point: closer Jhoan Duran, starter Joe Ryan and corner infielder Jose Miranda among them. Further cost certainty through extensions among that group or touted youngsters like Edouard Julien remain possible.

Looking to strictly the rotation, both Lopez and Ryan are now under club control through the 2027 season — which is slated to be Ryan’s final year of arbitration eligibility. Each of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda will be up for free agency at the end of the current season, so it’s understandable that the Twins had extra incentive to lock up their top starter and lock in some additional continuity.

Minnesota also has towering 6’9″ righty Bailey Ober under club control through at least that same 2027 season, and while he opened the season in Triple-A St. Paul, his performance in the big leagues to date suggests he can be a part of that long-term starting staff (3.82 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate in 148 1/3 innings). The aforementioned Paddack is signed through 2025 under the three-year, $12MM deal he signed while rehabbing from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Other in-house rotation options beyond the current campaign who’ve already had some big league seasoning include prospects Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and Josh Winder, though Winder’s frequent shoulder issues could eventually push him more toward to the bullpen.

Generally speaking, the Twins have shown increased willingness to spend in recent seasons, pushing their payroll up into the $150-160MM range in both 2022 and 2023. Assuming that’ll continue to be the norm in years to come, there’ll be plenty of room to supplement the core down the line. Lopez’s deal will likely land the Twins between $75-80MM in guaranteed money on the 2024 books, followed by something in the vicinity of $90-95MM in 2025 and around $70MM in both 2026-27 (depending on the extension’s exact year-to-year breakdown). The Twins aren’t and never have been at risk of paying the luxury tax, but they’ve also come quite a ways from their days as a perennial bottom-of-the-scale payroll club.

The trade bringing Lopez to Minnesota originally gave the Twins only two years of club control over Lopez, while Miami picked up three years of control over Arraez. The extension with Lopez more than balances out that disparity in club control, and it comes less than two years after the Twins begrudgingly made the decision to trade rotation stalwart Jose Berrios to Toronto after being unable to come to terms on an extension. Hindsight is always 20/20, but the seven-year extension Berrios inked with the Jays hasn’t panned out at all, and the Twins ultimately found their way to a prime-aged starter who was willing to commit to an extension on more favorable terms.

This surely isn’t exactly how they drew it up dating back to that pivotal trade deadline, but the Twins have added some long-term stability both in the lineup and in the rotation and done so without completely clogging the long-term payroll.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald first reported the sides were nearing agreement on a four-year, $73.5MM agreement. Dan Hayes of the Athletic reported the sides had agreed to terms.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, Ian Happ, Juan Soto, Marcell Ozuna

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Episode 3 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple. You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • We discuss Tim’s 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings article, including the contract Shohei Ohtani might command, as well as the markets for Aaron Nola and Julio Urias (3:26)
  • The Cubs and Ian Happ agree to a surprising three-year, $61MM extension. So did the player or the club get better value out of this deal? (18:41)
  • A busy week on the extension front includes the Twins agreeing to a four-year, $73.5MM contract with starter Pablo Lopez. We discuss the improvements Lopez has made this season and give our thoughts on the contract (23:04)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Why do the Giants only seem willing to spend money on position players, and not starting pitchers?  This question also includes our thoughts on the Logan Webb contract (26:59)
  • As Juan Soto gets off to a slow start in 2023, is there any hope for him to return to his 2021 numbers and what does this mean for extension talks? (31:24)
  • Are the Braves wasting a roster spot on Marcell Ozuna? (36:22)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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