As the regular season nears its conclusion, the playoff picture has mostly come into focus. Of the 12 teams currently in playoff position, 10 have a cushion of at least 4 1/2 games. The Padres and Phillies are working to hold off the Brewers for the final two Wild Card spots in the National League, but the rest of the teams currently in playoff position have put themselves in a great spot to reach the postseason barring a major collapse. There’s an outside shot the White Sox track down the Guardians in the AL Central or the Orioles get back into the AL Wild Card race, but it’d take a major turn of events over the next two weeks.
There’s a similar lack of intrigue in most of the division races. The Astros and Dodgers have already clinched their respective divisions. The Yankees, Guardians and Cardinals all hold leads of six-plus games in theirs. The only division race that promises plenty of intrigue down the stretch: the battle for the NL East.
Both the Mets and Braves are already guaranteed to make the postseason. They’re each likely to surpass 100 wins. Yet one of those teams will come up just shy of a division title, leaving them as the #4 seed in the National League. That means a three-game series against the #5 seed in a first-round Wild Card set under the playoff format introduced in this spring’s collective bargaining agreement. Obviously, both teams would much prefer to secure the division title (and almost certainly the NL’s #2 seed and accompanying first-round bye). Which one is the frontrunner for the division crown? Let’s take a look at the remaining road for each and their current health outlook.
Mets (95-56 record, +147 run differential)
Remaining schedule: at Oakland (three games), vs. Miami (two games), at Atlanta (three games), vs. Washington (three games)
The Mets have 11 games remaining. Eight of them are against teams 28 games or more below .500. The other three: a crucial series next weekend in Atlanta. New York welcomed back Max Scherzer from a brief injured list stint on Monday. He came out with six perfect innings against the Brewers, striking out nine, before being lifted due to a pitch count limitation. The Mets rotation is at full strength at the right time, pushing players like Tylor Megill and David Peterson into the bullpen.
The biggest current injury for the Mets is on the position player side. Right fielder Starling Marte has yet to return after suffering a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger two weeks back. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon that the All-Star outfielder is hopeful he’ll be back in time for next weekend’s series with the Braves. Center fielder Brandon Nimmo, meanwhile, left today’s game with left quad soreness. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that he’s likely to go for imaging tomorrow but Nimmo downplayed the severity of the issue postgame.
Braves (93-56 record, +171 run differential)
Remaining schedule: at Philadelphia (four games), at Washington (three games), vs. Mets (three games), at Miami (three games)
The defending champions dug themselves an early hole with a mediocre first two months, but they’ve been incredible since the calendar flipped to June. They’re a staggering 70-28 over the past three and a half months, nearly erasing a deficit that was once as high as 10 1/2 games in the process. They’ve pulled even with the Mets in the loss column but have two fewer wins, leaving them with a bit more work to do to get ahead in the standings.
The Braves kick off a four-game set with the Phillies tomorrow. That’s a much more difficult series than any the Mets will play (aside from the Braves themselves), but Atlanta just swept Philly last weekend.
Like the Mets, Atlanta doesn’t have any key starting pitchers currently on the injured list. Rookie star Spencer Strider is battling some oblique soreness and had today’s scheduled start pushed back slightly, but there’s no indication an IL stint is currently under consideration. As with New York, Atlanta is down one star position player thanks to a fractured finger though. The Braves lost Ozzie Albies to a right pinky fracture over the weekend. There’s a chance he returns in the postseason but he’s not expected back before the end of the regular season. Rookie Vaughn Grissom filled in well in recent weeks while Albies was rehabbing a broken foot; he’ll be asked to do the same for the stretch run.
Tiebreaker procedure
The final three games between the Mets and Braves obviously loom as the largest remaining on the schedule for both clubs. Not only are they the most directly impactful in the standings, they also carry implications for the tiebreaker. The new CBA did away with the traditional Game 163 in favor of a tiebreaker system. If two clubs finish the season with the same record, the team with the better head-to-head mark gets the nod in the standings. The Mets lead this year’s season series 9-7, meaning Atlanta would need to sweep their final meeting to secure the tiebreaker.
How does the MLBTR readership expect things to play out? Which team will celebrate an NL East crown two weeks from now?
(poll link for app users)
Wait.. they don’t even play a tiebreaker game if tied? When did that change? Just a terrible way to determine the winner if it does end in a tie. Yeah obviously a Braves fan here
They got rid of them this season with the new CBA. As a Mets fan, I agree with you. Loved the 163rd game whenever it happened. Here’s a quick Wikipedia article about the change:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseb…
I agree. I hate the new format. The last day of the 2011 season with two sudden death games and all of the last day regular season games and there being a half dozen different ways for it to have all ended up was one of the most exciting days in baseball that I can remember.
I never liked a one game playoff anyway because anyone can win on a given day.
Agreed, anyone can win any given day. That’s why it was such a reward to win the division before. It gives a lot more weight to the regular season which I like
You know what is worse? Playing 3 games all in one teams park.
Nah I hated that rule. You never see a 1 game series all year long. Baseball is way too random for a one game, winner take all game.
That “one game, winner take all game” is eventually how a 5th game in Division Series and a 7th game in the ALCS/NLCS and World Series end. Excellent scenario when those playoff series are forced into a 5th or 7th final game— winner take all. You don’t see 5 game and 7 game series all year long either. The playoffs are special. They should be different than the regular season. Baseball should have kept the 1 game playoff.
Disagree.
While you might view game 7s and 5s as “one game series,” they’re not.
The goal of the playoffs is to have the best team win and advance. The better team has several opportunities in a best of 7 series to prove that. If they fail to do so, then there’s a better probability that they’re not actually the better team. One game series are far more susceptible to randomness and flukes of circumstance. It’s sss.
It can be exciting, sure. But it doesn’t lead to more competitive baseball, imo.
Then if it’s the best teams that advance, then they still need realignment. No team in the AL Central comes close to an AL East team. The best records should move on even if they aren’t division winners.
If the Mets win 1 game in Atalanta. Atlanta has to finish 2.0 games better from here on out than the Mets. The Mets are in a very good spot.
This is completely false, if we take 2 then we would be up by 1 ☠️
The Mets lead the tie breaker by two. The Braves need to sweep to take it back. If the Mets win one, they keep it.
Yes, if they go into the 3-game series trailing by one and win the first two, they would then be ahead by one. But if the Mets won the third game, it would be a tie and NY would win the tiebreaker, which is the point TheREALMetsFan22 was making.
Yep, 22 has finally been right about something. Every troll has his day……..
If you take 2, you’ll be out by 0.5.
Huzzah!
Mets are a odd team lately they been doing good against over .500 play off type teams and getting swept by under .500.
I hope the Mets and Braves series next weekend is what decides the division no matter who wins.
Honestly; baseball is a game of timing so I am not even sure that having a bye the first round is as big of a deal as thought. Sometimes when teams are hot they want to keep playing
Benjamin, Having a BYE in the first round is definitely a big deal. In any pro sport.
Trumbojumbo; when you hear what baseball announcers say about when a team is hot they don’t want a day off as it could mess with streak.
Two examples the colorado Rockies got hot one year sweep everyone than had to wait for the Red Sox for World Series. Same hot team never showed. The tigers were hot one year swept some teams and waited for giants. Same team never showed up
Being “hot” is a legitimate and real phenomenon especially around playoff time….It could go either way…But I PROMISE you, unequivocally, that NO team would give up their BYE and opt to play the first round. It is an insanely sweet gift.
Whoever gets the bye gets to rest their rotation. If the NYM have to play SD, for example, and have to use Scherzer & DeGrom in games 4 & 5, then they are at a significant disadvantage to maybe the LAD, who have their rotation rested and in order of importance.
The Braves in particular would really benefit from having the bye. They’ve failed (again) to give their regular infielders days off this season. Those days off in a 1st round bye would provide much needed rest to Olson, Riley, and Swanson. Their starters have all been better on extra rest and when they’ve skipped starts this season too—especially Wright and Morton. Not having to win an extra series to advance in the playoffs when teams have a bye is reason enough to favor that scenario.
@TrumboJumbo Being “hot” has zero support in credible studies.
Feel free to cite a few, though….
JackStrawb,
Played the game long enough and been around it long enough to know how “real” it is. That is my source. That goes for any sport….Life in general actually..
@TrumboJumbo MLBTR doesn’t like links, but wikipedia has a solid, well-sourced write up on the hot hand fallacy with numerous links to credible studies and their methodologies. Note the word, “fallacy.”
In sum, and at _best_, if the hot hand exists, its statistical significance is trivial and even then is limited to a small number of players.
Thinking something is so, does not make it so. Inquiring minds seek to investigate the much larger world of sources than just their own experience. Cheers,
I thought perception was reality.
It would be great for the Mets. Make sure that Marte is healthy
I agree with the Mets being up and down (it’s frustrating as a fan, lol) but they did just sweep the Pirates right before the Brewers series. Hopefully, they’ll finish strong.
And the first round bye is a *huge* deal, imo.
Ya, the Braves just dug too deep a hole. Both teams have had great seasons.
The bye would help both teams. The Braves starters are looking fatigued, and Jansen’s arsenal is running out of bullets (and Snit won’t replace him, though he does seem able to keep him from appearing in back-to-back games).
The Mets have wear-and-tear issues and a shallow bullpen.
Winning the division matters.
Yep. I’m pulling for the Mets. Then, ideally, a Mets vs Astros WS where the two future HOF managers compete for their first ring. Come on boys, WIN it for Buck!
Nah, let’s have a Braves /Astros rematch in the Series. Braves can beat the Astros again and get on w/their plan for world domination. Heh heh……….
Like “world domination” vine. Strong, very strong. That said, still pulling for Buck. Miss him here in Birdland.
Let’s not overblow things. Mets got swept in 1 series. It’s not like it’s a pattern.
If the Mets keep using Joely Rodriguez, Trevor May, and Drew Smith in close games, they are going to finish about 4 games back of the Braves. Diaz and Ottavino are their only reliable relievers. The Braves bullpen is 3 times as good as the Mets with Iglesias, McHugh, Matzek, and Minter, all of which basically close down the door. Jansen is worse than Ottavino but hes better than any other reliever on the Mets besides Ottavino and Diaz. The Braves’s hitting is much better than the Mets. The Braves starting pitching is just a tad under the Mets with Bassit and Walker carrying the back end of their rotation vs the Braves starters. Despite Carrasco’s win losd record, hes pitched into the most luck I’ve ever seen. He does well vs the bad teams and get obliterated by any team over .500. Would rather see Peterson in the rotation over him. The Mets one saving grace is their easy schedule the rest of the way. That Braves series will be the most crucial series of the season.
You can’t use your beat relievers in every close game. They will break. There’s a reason no one uses their best relievers in games they’re losing – unless they need the work of they’re headed into an off day. And at the point in time we now find ourselves no manager wants to burn up his bullpen heading into the playoffs.
You’re wrong about the Braves only beating bad teams. It’s more of a case of them getting hot late. They’ve been beating almost everyone since June, including teams like Houston. They’re losing record against .500 teams is because they were bad early. The Braves can beat anyone at the moment. So could the Mets.
Opps. Apologies, LFG. I responded to the wrong thread.
@VonPurpleHayes Atleast you can admit when your wrong, cant say that about most of the people that comment on this site
You do realize that over the last 10 days, Joely has thrown 6 perfect innings. 18 up and 18 down. He’s certainly been terrible all year and frustrating to watch, but he’s hot right now and has a good arm. I believe that we need two lefty arms in the playoffs, pitchers who can also get right handed hitters out, and that Joely and Peterson could be huge for us. To me, Smith, Megill and May are a bit redundant and we don’t need all three active. Three hard throwers who aren’t consistent strike throwers and tend to hang sliders. Two out of the three, maximum, will suffice. Ottavino and Lugo are more polished and have better breaking stuff. And you can’t compare Jansen to Diaz right now. Bullpens are comparable, with the edge going to the Braves.
@bigmetsfan @smacky I’d rather see Claudio over Joely Rodriguez at this point. Megill is better than May and Smith by a wide margin, he just needs to get used to throwing in relief and hes a little rusty from not pitching for a while. I know a team can’t use their best relievers every game but, you need to know who to put in at the right moments. Yesterday when Showalter took out Peterson and put in Drew Smith with the bases loaded, I already predicted he would give up a grandslam because he gives up a homerun in close games just about every time he comes in. I’ve watched about 98% of every Met game this year and I know who can and can’t play just from observing a pattern. The real issue is that Eppler basically did nothing to adress the bullpen at the deadline when so many relievers were available. As of right now, Diaz and Ottavino are their only reliable relievers, but they have some average major league relievers that can fill in with Givens, Lugo, (Megill and Peterson are better than average but they arent used to pitching in relief so they go in this category)
Eppler actually made the team worse by trading Holderman for really nothing in return. I still can’t see the logic trading a 4-0 record and 2.04 ERA for basically a platoon DH who can’t hit.
@cleonswoboda He can’t run either. I actually don’t think Holderman is that good in my opinion from watching him but, I dont see how you can trade a controllable reliever thats had some results for you for a guy that can barely hit and runs like a 99 year old grandma
Not to mention dumping four actually useful or promising talents for Ruf.
The Giants’ FO must have been stunned at what they were able to get for a 36 yo platoon DH, who’s the kind of player good teams typically pick up as salary dumps at the Deadline.
You know what’s worse? The Mets gave up 5-6 years of Holderman’s service time in exchange for Vogelbach,
@LFGMets (Metsin7) Holderman’s a fine pitcher. Sub-3.00 ERA above A ball, Sub-1.000 WHIP above A ball.
This is the kind of player you take pains to keep around, not dump off for a fat platoon DHs.with a 110 OPS+ since 2018
Bigmetfan, don’t bother trying to be rational with clowns like LFGMets, not much of what they post makes much sense. Dude thinks he’s a GM and has no clue.
@Ella B I don’t know what you are talking about but I’ve literally been right on just about everything I’ve posted in the past 2 years. I predicted that Brandon Drury was one of the best hitters in the NL and that the Mets shouldn’t of gotten rid of him, I predicted that Conforto is the leaat clutch player/ most overatted player I’ve ever seen (which is why hes been at home all year while watching games on his couch), Drew Smith being horrible (I got ridiculed when people on this site were talking about how great his ERA was when literally he was getting saved by the defense every time out, Trevor May sucking, Miguel Castro sucking, Sean Ried-Foley sucking, Luis Rojas being a horrible manager, got flamed on here that a manager only makes a 2-3 game difference even though its clear as night and day that Showalter has single handidly brought the Mets from a 4th place team to a 1st place team in only one year of being there, and I predicted that Robert Gsellman was not a major league pitcher more than 2 years ago
Not only to mention that I said that the Mets trading deadline was one of the worst in history for a 1st place team like them. Darin Ruf, Naquin, and Vogelbach all did well their first week. While I was saying these guys werent good, all of mlbtr was saying how Eppler was a genius. Look at the moves now. Vogelbach is a liability on the basepaths while being just about a league average hitter, Naquin gets 3 hits in one game per week and gets out all the other timee, and Darin Ruf has about maybe 2-3 hits at most when JD Davis was obviously an upgrade over Ruf. Its clear as day that I know what I’m talking about. I don’t need these fancy stats to know who is and who isnt good. For a century+ we didnt have these fancy stats to judge a player. A mixture of ancedotal evidence and normal stats are enough to judge a player
@LFGMets
Camden22 is this your other user name? You suggesting anecdotal evidence is useful tells everyone not to take you seriously. Also, you misspelled anecdotal.
@LFGMets (Metsin7) One thing about Brandon Drury–after splurging on FAs the Mets were scrounging the barrel for 4th and 5th OFers last offseason and Drury was available for around $700k. It was odd to see the Mets let him walk and go instead with the likes of Plummer, Lee, Jankowski et al as their backup OFers, particularly when the fragility of Marte, Nimmo, and Canha suggested the distinct possibility that the Mets 4th OFer at the beginning of 2022 would get more starts than any other OFer.
That didn’t happen, of course, but the Mets have been very, very lucky wrt the health of their old lineup. .
Marlins
This is one that could come down to the final game of the season, and I for one am excited for that!
I think if the Mets play to the best of their ability, they should come out on top, but really at this point, it’s a total coin flip to me.
One thing that keeps being glossed over is both teams respective records against team with records over .500
Mets v teams >.500 41-30
Braves v teams >.500 31-32
Per BaseballReference.com
So not only have the Mets had more games against better teams they are 11 games over .500 in those games. The Braves are below.500 and that is even after sweeping the Phillies.
Braves got back in the race because they have feasted on bottom dwellers.
You’re wrong about the Braves only beating bad teams. It’s more of a case of them getting hot late. They’ve been beating almost everyone since June, including teams like Houston. They’re losing record against .500 teams is because they were bad early. The Braves can beat anyone at the moment. So could the Mets.
you’re supposed to feast on bottom dwellers
Look at the remaining schedule. Mets have a losing record in Atlanta. Braves have a winning record against the Phillies. That leaves a lot of games against teams below .500 which, as you stated, the Braves have performed better against than the Mets have.
Math is hard (for some).
To be fair that isn’t math what you did, it is inference but yes I agree with your point
Yeah very true.
Astrophysics is hard (for some).
The Phillies have to win or split this upcoming series. If not, I believe the Brewers surpass them. I don’t have much confidence in the Phillies right now, but for some strange reason, I think they take 2 while the Mets keep winning. So I have the Mets taking it.
*referring to the 4 games Phillies have against Atlanta.
Ironic that you had to root for the Mets against MIL and we had/have to root for you guys vs ATL!
The two teams will finish tied, with the tie-breaker going to the Mets.
Some of you people have gone bat$hit thinking that a first round BYE is “no big deal.” People…People….PEOPLE……BYE’s matter…and are a big deal…Screw your heads on and stop with the backwards thinking. Too many people commenting on here don’t know diddly about baseball.
I second your comment Trumbo.
The bye is a ridiculously huge advantage. I agree. Add that with home field, and I have a hard time seeing many WCs succeed.
I think every sane team should be salivating at the prospect of a BYE…It has to be one of the greatest gifts in sports.
I could argue you’re overvaluing it. But while I do agree with the main principle that it is important overall, certain teams are better equipped to deal with it. The Braves being one of them. Fried, Morton, Wright, and Strider seems like a solid 4 to me. How many other teams would be confident in their 3/4 in the first start of a playoff series?
Even if the Braves win the best-of-three, they’d be up against LA in the second round. If they get the bye, they play against the winner of a best of three, who won’t have their best pitchers pitching until later in the series. Getting the bye is huge.
As long as the Phillies continue to consistently lose, that’s all I care about in the NL East……
Phillies have 4 against Atlanta and 3 against Houston. So more losses seem likely.
Both teams make me physically ill.
It’s alarming how anyone could confuse two baseball teams with the seven layer dip they ate last night.
I ask my personal chef to stop at four and ship the other three to a family in Surat India as a tax write off.
Or is that the White Castles? There’s a good reason why they call them sliders.
It’s a tie! I vote Mets. Not a fan but just the way I feel. Braves are really good again though.
I think Phils take 3 of 4 this weekend. They are at home and know what’s at stake. They’re coming off an extra inning win and the Braves lost a tough one to the Nats. We’ll see but if the Phils offense gets it going watch out.
Mets have Scherzer, deGrom,Carrasco, and Walker. How is this even a question
Because the Braves are just as good if not better? Both teams are stacked.
Mets are going to the World Series this year, as are the Astros
Maybe. Maybe not.
Yanks2: I think you’re on to something. The Astros could very well be playing in the the World Series this year. The Mets will be there as well, probably sitting behind home plate.
Braves should’ve signed Freeman but they’re watching him flourish on the Dodgers. Braves would’ve been an immediate lock for another championship if they retained Freeman
There’s no such thing as a championship lock.
Yes sir. Playoff’s are a whole new ballgame.
The Braves are insanely good and the Phils have that nasty lineup and a starting rotation better than most teams… and that’s just the NL east.
The Braves are the Champs and did it without Acuña. The Phils have solid starting pitching and a murderous lineup… and that’s just the NL East
Padres fans, what team would you rather see the Padres face? The Mets or the Braves?
not a padres fan but i’d do anything to avoid facing degrom and scherzer in (possibly) 4 out of 7 games
Mets and Braves are a toss up. However, I think the “bye” is more important to the Mets. Setting up deGrom, Scherzer, Bassit with rest is key. Having them pitch a wild card round means a Carrasco, Walker starting the next round IF they win. Braves will rely more on their offense.
The loser of the race also will face a rested and loaded Dodgers team.
Surprised this poll is as close as it is. The Mets have the mathematical advantage of a lead and an easier schedule besides. Lots of voting with hearts I guess.
Blueskies: The Mets do have the easier schedule if (& that’s a BIG “IF”) they take care of business. The Marlins have good pitching and COULD split or sweep the 2 game series. The Braves have been on a torrid stretch for a good while. They had a chance to take the division lead this week. Unfortunately, they just couldn’t take advantage of the opportunity.
Yup, the numbers favor the Mets. Both teams have the same amount of losses. Braves have 13 games and the Mets have 11. The Mets have an ‘easier’ schedule (please remember the Mets lost 3 0f 6 from the Nats and pirates and then follow that by a sweep at the hands of the cubs after taking 2 of 3 from Miami–again in 12 games against Nats, Pirates, Miami, and Cubs with the season on the line Mets record: 5-7). The Mets did just sweep 4 from the Pirates and take 2 of 3 from Milwaukee after stealing one of the games with a late come back. The last 7 games the Mets are hot and have momentum. If the Braves win today they will be 71-29 in the last 100. ‘IF’ the Braves take 3 of 4 from the Phillly which would be very difficult, but doable. The Braves don’t play well in Philly early in the year–but at the end the Braves seem to historically rise to the occasion. The next 3 would be against the Nats on the road. It is baseball and one can’t expect a sweep but the Braves as a team do sweep this type team this year. The Mets and Braves will face off in Atlanta for 3 for the East. The Braves have won 10 of the last 11 home games. Each team will pitch their 1, 2, and 3rd starters. The Mets have a better 1,2,3 no doubt. If the Braves take care of Philly on the road and take 3 of 4– I believe the 3 games in Atlanta will be more of a coin flip for the East. If the Braves split the Philly series. The Mets would need to fall back more into that 5-7 Mets team 2 weeks ago–instead of the 6-1 Mets team they were last week. So yeah a coin flip is pretty close to being true. It’s not a slam dunk Mets have this it’s over situation.
This is one of those times when it feels like the distinction between possible and likely is being lost. Anything is possible, but some things are more likely.
I voted for the Braves because I believe they are the better, more complete team.
Hahahahahahaha. Thank you. I needed a good laugh.
Laughing now troll? How’s that crow?
The Braves will cool off. The Mets have been consistent all year. They’ll take the division.
Honestly, I think it will be the Mets but they are not anything short of recent collapses. Mets might hold the fort down for the division this year but I don’t believe they are set for the future.
They could potentially lose a lot of key players to free agency this winter
Who? if you think any key FA is going anywhere you’re mistaken.
The ones who are key & are free agents may sign with a new team. See how that works?
Who? DeGrom ain’t. Diaz ain’t. Bassitt ain’t. All 3 will be Mets. Nimmo probably woll too.
Of course. They all woll.
They’ll always win with a 300mil payroll..
Have you seen the Red Sox?
Today, I think the Braves are the better team. But that early part of the season was brutal. If we played half decent then, this race isn’t even close today. That’s where I tip my hat to the Mets for being more consistent the entire season. BUT THE BRAVES ARE COMING!! Go Bravos!!!
Looks more like the Braves are going
Braves have always fared better in the second half