The White Sox are wrapping up a season that’ll finish right around .500, a disappointing follow-up to last year’s 93-win campaign. Among the culprits for their middle-of-the-road showing was a rotation that ranks 15th in ERA (3.82) and 14th in strikeout/walk rate differential (14.6 percentage points).
While a league average rotation probably isn’t what general manager Rick Hahn and his front office had in mind, there were a few bright spots. Dylan Cease doubled down on last year’s breakout and could be a finalist for the AL Cy Young award. Michael Kopech tailed off in the second half but flashed the ability to be a productive big league starter in his move from the bullpen. The most surprising positive performance from a White Sox starter is probably that of Johnny Cueto, though.
The 15-season MLB veteran wrapped up a six-year contract with the Giants at the end of last season. He wasn’t coming off a bad year, pitching to a 4.08 ERA over 22 outings. Nevertheless, he did so with a mediocre 20% strikeout rate, and the league clearly had skepticism about his ability to repeat those decent results. Cueto went unsigned until just before Opening Day, when he inked a minor league deal with the ChiSox. The contract came with a $4.2MM base salary for any time spent in the majors, an atypically large figure for a non-roster pact. That suggested Cueto was a high-priority minor league signee and may well have had some MLB offers with a lower base value. Nevertheless, it also indicated no team offered him both $4+MM and an Opening Day rotation spot, and he had to work his way onto Chicago’s roster after building into game shape in Triple-A.
Cueto took four starts in the minors before the White Sox selected his contract in mid-May. He’s been a fixture in the starting five from that point forward, and he’s gotten his strongest results since his 2016 campaign in San Francisco. Over 25 outings (24 of them starts), the two-time All-Star tallied 158 1/3 innings of 3.35 ERA ball. He averaged 6 1/3 frames per appearance and allowed three or fewer earned runs in 21 games. By and large, Cueto kept the White Sox in the game when he took the ball, more than making good on his contract. He also set himself up for a better trip to the open market this time around, as he’ll head back to free agency a month from now.
After his final start of the season yesterday, Cueto told reporters he’d welcome a return to Chicago (via James Fegan of the Athletic). The 36-year-old indicated he believes he can still pitch for another two or three seasons, foreclosing whatever small possibility there may have been he’d retire at year’s end.
How replicable Cueto’s 2022 production can be is an open question. Concern about his lack of swing-and-miss remains, as he punched out just 15.7% of opposing hitters. That’s the lowest rate of his career and more than six points south of the league average. His 42% ground-ball rate is right around the league mark. He did a solid job at limiting hard contact but wasn’t elite in that regard.
Where Cueto did excel is in avoiding free passes. He walked only 5.1% of batters faced, his lowest mark since 2016. He’s long had above-average control, but he was among the sport’s best strike-throwers in 2022. The veteran righty also avoided the injured list for the first time in six years, and he told Fegan and others yesterday he was pitching pain-free for the first time in years (presumably since before undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2018).
Cueto certainly has locked in a big league contract during his upcoming trip to free agency. His 2022 season isn’t too dissimilar from Zack Greinke’s 2021 platform, which agent Bryce Dixon could point to as an optimistic comp. During his final year with the Astros, Greinke pitched to a 4.16 ERA with a 17.2% strikeout rate, a 5.2% walk rate and a 44.4% grounder percentage. Greinke tallied a few more innings since he was on the big league roster from start to finish, but Cueto soaked up a bigger workload on a per-start basis.
Greinke went on to secure a one-year, $13MM pact from the Royals heading into his age-38 season. A likely future Hall of Famer and a former Cy Young winner, Greinke has had a more accomplished career than Cueto, and he’d been far more consistently durable before his platform year. It seems unlikely Cueto will quite reach a $13MM base salary for those reasons, but their respective seasons before free agency are alike.
Wade Miley, another veteran control artist coming off an excellent year from a run prevention perspective, pitched to a 3.37 ERA with an 18.1% strikeout rate through 163 innings with the Reds last season. The Cubs claimed him off waivers at the end of the year and exercised a $10MM option on his services for 2022. It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, as Miley didn’t have the benefit of an open market bidding the way Cueto will this winter. Yet it affirms that a team valued Miley, who was entering his age-35 campaign, as at least a $10MM player, setting that as the seeming floor for what his market value would have been had he gotten to free agency.
Precisely where Cueto’s 2023 salary lands will obviously be determined in the coming months, but there’s no question he proved a valuable contributor for the White Sox. It stands to reason Chicago will at least maintain contact with his reps this winter, as they’re facing a fair bit of uncertainty in the starting staff. Cease will be back at the front of the rotation, and Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn will get chances to bounce back from disappointing 2022 campaigns.
Kopech figures to be in the season-opening starting five, but he’s never topped 140 2/3 innings in any professional season and will be coming off surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee (albeit with an expectation he’ll be full-go for Spring Training). Davis Martin seems the in-house favorite for the #5 spot after eight decent starts to begin his MLB career, but he’s never been a top prospect and was quite homer-prone in the minors. Pushing Martin down a peg or two on the rotation depth chart with an outside addition seems likely, particularly since Chicago’s thin farm system doesn’t offer much in the way of obvious upper minors rotation pieces.
Horse loving Johnny Cueto was definitely one in the White Sox rotation this season. mlb.com/cut4/johnny-cueto-horse-riding-again-c3010…
This is the best. Thanks for a good 45 minutes down the Johnny rabbit hole of awesomeness. 45 minutes I’ll never get back and gladly relinquish any time
An astute FO would recognize they hit the lottery to an extent on a likeable veteran and not pay something like 10-15mil next year for the steep dropoff. They have so much cash dumping efforts to undergo in retooling this team before paying another late career guy 8 figures for ’23. It is too bad since he had a pulse when so many of their position players did not.
Rick Hahn already hinted in last nights press conference that the White Sox were more likely to retool via the trade route than in free agency this offseason. Clearly he was referring to their payroll situation. It’s evident that a return of Johnny Cueto or an even more expensive Carlos Rodon won’t be in the cards this winter without the “cash dumping” you referred to. It’s also clear that the White Sox will need to address their lack of rotation depth this offseason so it will be interesting to see if that comes directly through trades or with FA’s following any deals.
Most of their players on existing contracts are overpaid for their production.
There are only a few players on there that other teams will give up something decent for.
Hahn will try to cut payroll by trading some veterans for prospects.
He – and the organization – remain in circles.
They have rotation depth. The story fails to mention Reyno and Jimmy who are probably better suited for the rotation. Maybe swap them for Michael late in the season as Len and Stoney were positing over the course of the year.
@dumpster. Hey fan boy, do you have any clue as to how irrelevant these Sox players are? When you say Reyno, ‘Jimmy’, Pinto, Dilly or Dally, or zas – that no one cares or knows who you are talking about.
Most fans do know who he’s talking about. Fans like you are only concerned about ripping the Sox or screaming fire LaRuusa. While I also may be considered a fanoy at least (unlike you) I’m a #RideOrDie fan not like you common bandwagoners who only love Sox when they winning.Yall dummies act like no other team has had a unexpected down year. It happen to a team or 2 every year. STFU until you can post credible reads.
Arguably one of the most laughable statements unless the White Sox are already in rebuilding mode. Their farm system ranks near the bottom if not the bottom on all the sites and they already lack depth and have a roster full of players made of glass…
Over under 200 games played by Roberts and Eloy combined?
If they have a manager that has the ‘nerve’ to tell Eloy he is solely DHing, and demand Luis slide FEET first then the over is likely. I think the problem is that these guys seem to think they are done, they think they made it and there is nothing left to learn or do.. They need a conditioning staff worth a #$%^ and also get these guys to buy into it to be healthy all season long…
Angels- 3/33
You’re right, cws. Hahn struck gold with Cueto in 2022. Time to move on and give someone else the opportunity to get totally burned.
Hahn did strike gold. Mid 30s and no trip to the DL. Johnny C, wishing you nothing but good health. That said, thanks for the memories. We’re moving on.
He knows that if he stays as a part of a rebuilding club and performs half as well as last year, he’ll be traded at the deadline to a contender.
ChiSox are not a rebuilding club.
Well they sure as hell aren’t in contention.
They sure as hell not rebuilding. Even the eventual World Series winners will lose or trade 5-7 players. And they were in contention until about 8 games left in season
People need to realize that strikeouts doesn’t always equal good pitcher and lack of strikeouts doesn’t always equal bad pitcher. I’d much rather have a guy with 2 Ks over 7 shutout innings that a guy with 12 Ks over 6 innings of 5 run ball. Strikeouts might be sexy, but pitch-to-contact guys can be just as effective, if not more so.
True enough. Cueto had solid overall numbers but his W-L might have been improved with a better defensive team than what the White Sox fielded this past season.
Wait, pitchers strikeouts don’t count more than ground outs or fly outs? Nah, that can’t be right.
Yup. Dylan can take the final step to being an elite starter by not just trying to strike everyone out with that wicked table.
Cease is already an elite starter.
Unlike Quintana.
Cease will win at least 2 CY Yound Awards in career barring major injury
If only he could win a Cy Young award.
He has the vet guile to consistently get thru 7 and rack up the quality starts, something he was doing from the git go, why he was the Sox MVP of the staff, ahead of even likely Cy Young runner up Dylan. Dylan is starting to take the final step towards becoming an elite starter- pitching to contact on occasion and being more economical with his pitches, controlling his 4 seamer and learning a change up to be a complete pitcher. Johnny has been instrumental in mentoring him and other young pitchers like Michael, Jimmy and Reyno (who hes taken under his wing in the off-season). With his off the charts baseball IQ and storied work ethic, the Sox gotta make it a priority to bring him back.
hiflew, baseball writers and other baseball “experts” do not seem to understand this. Pitching is about run prevention only, not K’s, BB’s, hits allowed, etc.
“I’d much rather have a guy with 2 Ks over 7 shutout innings that a guy with 12 Ks over 6 innings of 5 run ball.”
I get your overall point, but who *wouldn’t* take seven shutout innings over six innings of five run ball?
5>0
I watch the Reds broadcasts some. They seem to take that stance on Hunter Greene quite a bit.
It was a bad example by hiflew. The actual point is that zero runs allowed in an inning equals zero runs allowed in an inning regardless of how many guys the pitcher walked or struck out.
Run prevention is all that matters.
Sure seems like the Chisox ‘window’ will begin to start closing after the 2023 season. It should be interesting to see what desperate moves might be made this offseason, to fill their weaknesses at 2B, 3B and C. Not to mention the over supply of guys who are best suited to be DHs. And oh yeah, Abreu is a FA. And their best PR agent, Stoney, isn’t getting any younger.
Exactly right. Plus their so called young studs can’t stay healthy. More questions than answers on the south side
Their window closed in 2022 and they knew it.
It’s why they “Went For It” – trading a cornerstone, affordable, controlled piece of their “rebuild” for a volatile closer and his salary……which moved all their chips on the table even though they already had the best closer in the AL.
Now they have to trade expensive veterans for younger players trying to get their payroll down.
7th highest payroll in MLB. 19th in attendance.
P.S. And the fans getting excited about possibly bringing in a recently fired, failed, recycled manger to right the ship is sad.
Dogtroll- bringing nothing to the table since 1969. Daily routine. 10am: “Wah! Jerry Reinsdorf stole my binky! Wah!” Noon: Rearrange stuffed animals on toy chest. 1pm: Power hour and reflection.
Time for some Bryzzo self lovin. 2pm: Logon to MLBTR. Go on Evil Stoney Benetti rant. Wah! 4pm: Ronnie Woo woo jazzercize. Cubbies! Woo! 6pm: Ma! Meatloaf! MA! 8pm: Marquee network for the Best of Pat and Ron. 30 minute loop of Ronnie going Noooo!!! 130am: Check MLBTR for likes. 4am: “Jerry Reinsdorf. Binky. Wah!!”
Just putting it out there that I loved every second of your craptastic season.
HUGE HOF POST OF THE DAY ABOUT THE BIGGEST LOSER ON SITE. WHERE CAN I SEND YOU THE TROPHY. I love trolls being smacked down with truth. Why does he even post unless it’s negative? He apparently still feeds off mammas cheast tools
Id say they sign Jose Abreu first and foremost, and extend Giolito second but resigning Johnny Cueto would be a nice move too, have 18M coming off the books in Dallas Keuchel.
Jose Rodriguez is going to be ready next season, Romy Gonzalez is MLB ready, have Jake Burger in the minors, have a couple other nice infield prospects too, so infield depth isn’t really a concern.
Catcher is a little more of a concern with Grandal’s injury history but Seby Zavala has filled in nicely.
Pollock will be back, Robert and Eloy in the outfield, probably rely on Sheets, Haseley and Rutherford for outfield depth, possibly sign an outfielder in FA.
Cease
Lynn
Kopech
Giolito
The bullpen is fairly well set, the big question for the Sox will be whether or not to make a run at a starting pitcher in addition to Johnny Cueto in FA.
Eloy is DH only
You are spending money they don’t have to spend. How are you getting to budget? Who’s getting moved out/traded to afford your moves?
Abreu not leaving. Sorry as I’m sure you want him gone
cueto pitched more innings with the sox than 3 combined years or two years with the giants. He’ll want 15 mill, wont happen. Shouldnt anyway
Problem is reinsdorf signs over the players who thinks are still in their prime – i.e ken griffey jr.
Has the White Sox window started to close before it fully opened? After Cease that rotation is very shaky
Shaky? Lance was solid after his late start due to his knee injury and having to shake rust off the Mound in games w/o benefit of a spring training with a 2.6 E.RA in the second half. Michael- dominant when healthy. Johnny- one of the AL leaders in quality starts. Having Giolito as your shaky #5 not a bad place to be. Lot of teams would wish for that. (Also have Davis Martin for depth, and Reyno and Jimmy Lambert as viable rotation options in 23)
This will be a tricky offseason as I’m sure they don’t want to add to payroll. Cease is going to get ARB raise and Giolito will probably get a small bump. Abreu is unsigned so if they retain Abreu your probably looking at $20MM if Abreu signs for the same. Moncada and Grandel are unmovable and you’d have to get lucky to move Pollack. If Cueto would sign a two year deal 2/$12MM with incentives up to $16MM I’d consider it as the fall back plan is a swing starter long reliever. He’s one of the few that spoke up while this team walked around in a coma for two months.
Finding a way to bring Elvis and Johnny would be crucial. The vet presence all year, a non dysfunctional manager (enjoy retirement TLR, get well!), and a full season of healthy Eloy, TA, Robert, Yoyo, Yaz, and Kelly should work wonders, along with an everyday RF (Colas?). Think they could push through towards $200 M w/o going over. The Keuchel salary will be gone, maybe Abreu savings w a longer term home town discount, plus additional off thr books in 24. They should have resources especially if they gin up (no pun intended) excitement with a new manager.
But they won’t be going to $200mm. They have maxed out on payroll. Plan on staying to last years budget.
Think they have a heart to heart w Pito. If you want to break the bank one last time in FA, go for it, God bless you, statue and lifetime ambassadorship waiting for you when you retire a la Bo, Frank, Thome, Harold, Kitty. If you want to be part of this as a clubhouse mentor to see how the kids all develop w Colas and Cespedes on the come, sign on to a longer term deal. They did this with popular vets Paulie and Buerhle, could totally see Jose “I’ll sign myself” wanting to come back
Wouldn’t mind seeing Cueto in Philly next season.
Calling it now, Braves come in over paying for a 1 year deal. Signs with the Braves as their 5th starter, regresses a ton, and Braves fans are frustrated lol
@bravesfan…..but as Cueto regresses, the Braves call up an unknown from single A and he’s immediately lights out establishing himself as a top tier starter.
He was back to keeping the ball in the ballpark this year and that helped him a lot. i could see a drop off in that next year.. I don’t see him getting anything serious in a contract (i’m likely wrong)
Sox should :
1. Keep Andrus somehow. Mendick,Andrus and Anderson manning Middle infield
2. Put Vaughn at 1B
3. Trade Jimenez for whatever you can get
4. Say a sad goodbye to Abreu
5. Find a young Manager who understands today’s player
6. Launch Moncada and let Burger play 3B
7. With the money you save on Abreu and Pollock re sign Cueto and some relievers who spend more time in the pen than on the IL
No
Pollock is not going anywhere. He has a player option. Everything else is doable.
Complete scumbag and human garbage. His antics ended a man’s career and will affect him greatly for the remainder of his life.
Caution signing any pitcher who doesn’t miss bats with the new defensive shift rules coming into effect.
According to his WAR, Cueto is worth at least a 1 year/$18.3M. Considering the premium value of good, reliable pitching, I think Cueto is worth that, roughly. 1 year/$18M, maybe a veteran discount (as in he’s made a ton of money already so he doesn’t really need an extra couple million) and signing 1 year/$15M, but he does deserve a $15-$19M one year deal based on his performance this year.
This is silly……
A player is worth what a franchise will pay him.
MLB is not rotisserie league.
Put your sentences in paragraphs like everyone else. It takes less space in the thread and is easier to read.
He will need to do better than one bounce back year with less than enthusiastic k and bb rates for 1/$18,000,000. I’d guess 1/$6,000,000-$8,000,000
In hindsight it’s a valid point that formerly highly paid veterans in comparable positions coming off comparable seasons tend to get paid in the $12-$13M range on a one year deal. But I’d be shocked if he took less than $10M or was honestly offered less than $10M by someone who really wanted him, given that he’s already earning $3.2M pro-rated from a $4.2M major league deal and he’s clearly out pitched that value by a reasonable margin.
His numbers are up and down all over his career, but he’s essentially having a career average year in terms of ERA and WAR, with the only thing being that he hasn’t and won’t make 30+ starts, but that’s due to when he was called up.
Also, Greinke as a comparable isn’t really fair, because of his overall value the couple of years leading up to his 1 year/$13M deal in KC. Granted, Cueto was similarly underperforming on his own mega deal and Greinke and KC have their history/a degree of loyalty to one another, so the $13M might’ve been “hometown” value.
But if you extrapolate his 3.4 WAR across 24 starts to 32 starts, it’s theoretically 4.5 WAR, which, again, is pretty good. For a starting pitcher earning market value that’s a $20M deal, easily.
No reason Cueto can’t get that on a one year contract.
I’d be shocked if the best he could get is $6M to $8M, unless that’d be base salary and he’d get substantial bonuses for innings pitched that could take it from a $7M or so base salary to a $14M total on the year.
Hard to believe Cueto has been around 15 years already
He looks good in those all blacks, I think he has to stay in Chicago on a team friendly deal.
Cueto and Abreu were definitely not the reason for the losing season. It will be an interesting off season. They need to resign both and make a trade involving Eloy. Sheets does not fit anywhere on this club. He needs to be gone too. Vaughn needs to share DH and 1b with Abreu . I don’t believe Moncada is done. More than likely was playing injured. It also sure seemed Rick Hahn was describing Joe Girardi as the new manager at the press conference.
Of all the things you can teach a young pitcher, teaching them to throw strikes is one of the most important things, especially if you have good stuff. Even great pitchers look bad if they put people on base needlessly.